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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street's biggest banks face a less profitable lending environment as interest rates fall.</li><li>Bank bosses shrugged off those concerns this week and pointed to several benefits of lower rates.</li></ul>Lending threatens to become far less lucrative for Wall Street's biggest banks as interest rates fall. But executives don't seem to be worried — and even spy some benefits from cheaper borrowing.The Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">cut its benchmark rate</a> by 50 basis points to between 4.75% and 5% in late September. The central bank had hiked that rate from nearly zero to as high as 5.25% between March 2022 and July 2023 in response to soaring inflation.The Fed is widely expected to keep lowering rates to stimulate economic growth and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-warning-signs-job-market-indicators-unemployment-2024-10">stave off a recession</a> — while being careful not to rekindle inflation or overheat the job market.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/bank-of-america-review">Bank of America</a> CFO Alistair Borthwick said on an earnings call this week that even if rates drop below 3%, lenders have historically done well in that environment. He emphasized that banks have many levers to pull that can fuel strong performance."We control our client experience," he said, according to an Alphasense transcript. "We control the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-advised-american-express-ceo-protect-brand-name-2020-5">level of service</a>. We control the relationship orientation, we control the pricing. We control our expense. So, there are an awful lot of things that we control through any cycle."Banks also offer a wide range of services, some of which do better when rates fall, even as others fare worse.Citigroup CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-jane-fraser-regulators-occ-frb-consent-orders-asset-cap-2024-10">Jane Fraser</a> told analysts this week that fee-based revenues at her bank rose by double digits last quarter despite rates declining, "reflecting the growing diversity of our earnings mix."Lower payment rates fueled interest-earning balances last quarter, and the bank grew its retail mortgage portfolio and overall loan book, Fraser said.<h2 id="f6b149ca-d5eb-4cbd-81c8-b0e1a7d0bec3">Consumer revival</h2>Falling rates promise to reduce interest payments on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and other debts. But that could leave consumers with more disposable income, which could benefit banks.Citigroup CFO Mark Mason said on the bank's earnings call that inflation cooling and rates dropping <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-jpmorgan-consumer-inflation-rates-banking-crisis-2023-4">helps consumers</a> and the overall economy, which can reduce loan delinquencies and net credit losses for banks as more people can repay their debts. He said the lender is already seeing more stability with delinquencies improving.Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf said on his bank's earnings call that waning inflation and sliding rates should be especially helpful to lower-income people. However, he reported weaker demand for commercial loans because of economic uncertainty and customers holding off on borrowing until rates fall.Wells Fargo has reduced rates on some deposits and raised them on others, striking a balance between protecting its profits and losing customers.Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Leshaya told analysts this week that her bank's net interest income would likely decrease year-over-year this quarter. Similar to Citi's Fraser, she highlighted loan growth last quarter, saying "this is just the beginning." She also reported a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-mortgage-rates-outlook-prediction-top-cities-homebuyers-owners-2024-10">steady increase in mortgages</a>, and forecasted declining rates would fuel a jump in refinancing activity.On JPMorgan's latest earnings call, CFO Jeremy Barnum reported a "pick up in mortgage applications and a tiny bit of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rates-30-year-refinance-applications-real-estate-housing-market-2024-8">pick up in refi</a>," as well as "some hints of more activity" in the banking giant's multifamily lending business.Barnum said the lender was yet to see a material acceleration in loan growth or a surge in investment banking deals. But he said the Fed's jumbo rate cut might have sparked more activity in debt capital markets recently.<h2 id="d11f3f95-7494-42dd-8d0f-a7a52424322a">Stock surge</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-3q-results-dealmaking-trading-resurgence-david-solomon-2024-10">Goldman Sachs</a> was the exception to the rule this quarter, with little discussion from executives on its earnings call about how falling interest rates are affecting the bank. CEO David Solomon said the Fed's first rate cut has raised hopes of avoiding a US recession, which could translate into more economic activity. He added that Goldman's clients were "highly focused on the trajectory of rates" around the world, among other issues.Bank stocks have fared well since the Fed cut, with Citi and BoA both up just over 8% in the past month, Goldman rising 9%, Wells Fargo jumping 17% and Morgan Stanley soaring almost 20%.

Bank bosses aren't worried about lower interest rates — and even see some upside

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US futures were trending up ahead of Thursday's opening bell. </li><li>PPI and retail sales numbers are due later in the final batch of data before next week's Fed meeting.</li></ul>US stock futures ticked higher Thursday morning as investors await the last round of inflation data before the Fed's March meeting. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 0.33% shortly before 6 a.m. ET. The index lost some momentum on Wednesday but has remained near record highs. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> climbed 0.5% and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> gained 0.32%.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">US Dollar Index</a>, which measures the value of the dollar against six currencies, was almost flat. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=brent&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets" rel="">Brent crude</a> was 0.76% higher, surpassing the $84 a barrel mark. Oil had its biggest gain in about five weeks after US stockpiles shrunk in a sign of heightened demand. Prices have also been driven up by a fresh Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian refinery this week and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Wall Street is awaiting another batch of key inflation data on Thursday with the release of the producer price index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, as well as retail sales numbers. PPI is expected to show a steady increase for the month, while retail sales, which account for nearly half of household consumption, are expected to rebound after an unexpected dip at the start of the year. The data will be the last economic indicator for analysts before the Fed's next policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Tuesday's CPI data had little impact on markets, but given consumer spending is the biggest driver of the economy, better-than-expected results could encourage optimism surrounding a June interest rate cut. Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, warned in a morning note that the rising oil prices could renew inflationary pressures despite favorable economic data. "A higher oil price has negative implications for business and consumers and is exactly what could make central banks sit on their hands if there are knock-on effects for the cost of energy, transport, and goods," he said. Companies due to report first-quarter earnings later include <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dg-stock">Dollar General</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/adbe-stock">Adobe.</a>

Stock market today: Futures gain ahead of final inflation data before the Fed's March meeting

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Fed's rate hikes have had "zero impact" on the job market, Barry Sternlicht said.</li><li>The real estate mogul pointed to job growth in rate-sensitive areas of the economy.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve's aggressive inflation fight hasn't worked to cool off the job market, and the central bank risks sparking a "serious" <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5">downturn for US consumers</a>, according to real estate billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht.The Starwood Capital Group CEO pointed to the Fed's steep rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, which tightened financial conditions and helped <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-food-energy-gas-prices-consumer-price-index-2024-5">lower high prices</a> in the economy.Sternlicht said high interest rates haven't loosened the job market even in the most rate-sensitive areas like construction. That growth poses a problem for central bankers, who are looking for more evidence of a cooling economy before easing monetary policy.<a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6562000101">Jobs in the healthcare</a> industry have climbed 1.4 million since March 2022, the month the Fed first began raising interest rates. <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USCONS">Jobs in construction</a>, meanwhile, grew by half a million in that time frame, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics."He's had zero impact," Sternlicht said of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYwBMjSfZC4">CNBC</a> on Wednesday. "He's not getting layoffs in the parts of the market that are the most sensitive."In aggregate, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-april-unemployment-rate-job-growth-wages-2024-5">job growth has cooled</a> since the hiring spree in 2023. The <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">unemployment rate</a> has ticked higher over the past year, clocking in at 3.9% in April, but is still at the lowest level in decades. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/">Job cut announcements</a> also spiked at the start of the year, with plans to lay off working rising 136% over the month of January, according to a report from Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas.The Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer risks further weakening the job market. If job losses begin to hit the services sector, that could easily push the US into a hard landing, given it's outsized impact on the economy, Sternlicht warned.71% of non-farm employees in the US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm">work in the services sector</a>, according to the latest jobs report."If he hits that, he creates a great recession. If he's going to knock those jobs out, which is a big category, he's going to have to have a serious consumer recession, which I don't think he can stop," Sternlicht said, adding he foresaw "aggressive" Fed rate cuts.Other Wall Street forecasters have been warning of the risk of recession, especially as interest rates look poised to stay <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-fed-cut-interest-rates-powell-fomc-inflation-relief-2024-4">higher for longer</a>. Rates are hovering at their highest levels since 2001. Meanwhile, the New York Fed sees a 52% chance the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf">US could enter a recession within the next 12 months</a>.

Fed policy hasn't cooled the labor market and a 'serious consumer recession' could strike if services jobs tumble, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht says

NEW DELHI: Some of the essential services related to banking, transportation, railways and electricity are likely to be impacted during a two-day nationwide strike called by a joint forum of central trade unions beginning Monday. Talking to PTI, All Indian Trade Union Congress General Secretary <keyword id="366518" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="amarjeet-kaur" source="Orion">Amarjeet Kaur</keyword> said, "We are expecting participation of over 20 crore formal and informal workers with mass mobilisation of workers across the country during the strike on March 28 and 29 to protest against government policies." She said that the strike is expected to hit the rural parts also, where informal workers of farming and other sectors will join the protest. The strike notices were given by workers' unions of various sectors such as coal, steel, oil, telecom, postal, income tax, copper, banks and insurance. Unions in railways and defence sector will carry out mass mobilization in support of the strike at several places, the joint forum said. The unions' demands include scrapping of the proposed changes in labour laws, privatisation of any form and the national monetisation pipeline. Increased allocation of wages under MNREGA (<keyword id="1194612" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mahatma-gandhi-rural-employment-guarantee-act" source="Orion">Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act</keyword>) and regularisation of contract workers are also part of their demands. Workers of roadways, transport and electricity departments have also decided to join the strike in spite of the impending threat of ESMA (Essential Services Maintenance Act) which is likely to be imposed in Haryana and Chandigarh, the joint forum said in a statement. Trade unions, including INTUC, AITUC, HMS, CITU, AIUTUC, TUCC, SEWA, AICCTU, LPF and UTUC are part of the joint forum. Meanwhile, the <keyword id="6375040" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="power-ministry" source="Orion">power ministry</keyword> on Sunday advised all the state-run utilities and other agencies to be on high alert and ensure round-the-clock electricity supply and stability of the national grid. "The Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) have called for a nationwide strike with effect from 06:00 hrs of March 28 to 06:00 hrs of March 30, 2022," an advisory issued by the power ministry said. The advisory has been issued to all states, central public sector undertakings, central electricity authority, national load dispatch centre and regional load dispatch centres. In the interest of the consumers of electricity, it is advised that all the power utilities shall take necessary measures to ensure round-the-clock functioning of the electricity grid and availability of all plants, transmission lines and substations, the ministry said, adding that all regional/state control room executives should be vigilant and on high alert. The ministry also suggested measures to be taken to ensure secure and reliable grid operations. Shutdown activities planned during March 28-29 may be rescheduled to suitable future dates to the extent possible, it said and asked all concerned officials to ensure close supervision of their regional network/control area. Also, manpower may be deployed at all critical sub-stations/power station 24X7 to handle any emergency situation, it said. Power supply to those engaged in essential services such as hospitals, defence, and railways must be ensured, it added and suggested setting up of a 24x7 control room for information dissemination and handling any kind of contingency. Bank employees' unions said they will support the strike. All <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="Orion">India</keyword> Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) General Secretary C H Venkatachalam said the union demands the government to stop privatisation of public sector banks and strengthen them. Bank employees also demand speedy recovey of bad loans, higher deposit rates by banks, lower service charges on customers as well as restoration of old pension scheme for staff. A number of public sector banks, including country's largest lender SBI, have said that their services may get impacted to a limited extent due to the strike. SBI said it has made necessary arrangements to ensure normal functioning in its branches and offices during the strike. "It is likely that work at our bank may be impacted, to a limited extent, by the strike," SBI said. New Delhi-headquartered Punjab National Bank (<keyword id="13478968" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="pnb" source="Orion" meta.marketcap="38923.93999753" meta.tagname="Punjab National Bank" meta.tagpopularcount="0" meta.sectorid="15" meta.entitytype="company" meta.matchtype="exact" meta.aum="0" meta.entityid="11585" meta.tagseoname="punjab-national-bank" meta.sector="Banks" meta.tagnameorg="Punjab National Bank">PNB</keyword>) said, AIBEA, Bank Employees Federation of India (BEFI) and All India Bank Officers' Association (AIBOA) have served notices to go on strike on March 28-29. "While bank has made all arrangements to ensure normal functioning in its branches and offices, it is likely that work in our bank may be impacted to a limited extent by the strike," PNB said. Bengaluru-based <keyword id="13478969" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="canara-bank" source="Orion" meta.marketcap="40836.07197252" meta.tagname="Canara Bank" meta.tagpopularcount="0" meta.sectorid="15" meta.entitytype="company" meta.matchtype="exact" meta.aum="0" meta.entityid="9218" meta.tagseoname="canara-bank" meta.sector="Banks" meta.tagnameorg="Canara Bank">Canara Bank</keyword> said it is taking all necessary steps to ensure smooth functioning of bank branches and offices. However, the functioning of the bank may be impacted, Canara Bank added. Private lender <keyword id="2179992" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbl-bank" source="Orion">RBL Bank</keyword> said its bank unions are affiliated to AIBOA and AIBEA, and the employees associated with these unions may participate in the strike. "The bank will take all necessary steps for smooth functioning of the bank's branches/offices on the days of strike. However, it is likely that some of our branches would also be impacted by the strike," <keyword id="13478967" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbl" source="Orion" meta.marketcap="491.27195140500004" meta.tagname="Rane Brake Lining Ltd" meta.tagpopularcount="0" meta.sectorid="506" meta.entitytype="company" meta.matchtype="exact" meta.aum="0" meta.entityid="21601" meta.tagseoname="rane-brake-lining-ltd" meta.sector="Auto Ancillaries" meta.tagnameorg="Rane Brake Lining Ltd.">RBL</keyword> said. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/pvr-and-inox-leisure-announce-merger/articleshow/90476756.cms">PVR and INOX Leisure announce merger</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/how-this-former-vedantu-cofounder-is-taking-on-instagram-and-snapchat-to-build-social-media-for-teens/articleshow/90443442.cms">How this former Vedantu cofounder is taking on Instagram and Snapchat to build social media for teens</a>

Two-day Bharat Bandh: Essential services likely to be affected

<ul class="summary-list"><li>New York Community Bancorp stock shot up 42% after agreeing to acquire Signature Bank's assets.</li><li>The company's Flagstar Bank unit will assume most of Signature's deposits and all 40 branches.</li></ul>Shares of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nycb-stock">New York Community Bancorp</a> are on a tear Monday following news that a subsidiary inked a deal to acquire most of failed Signature Bank's assets.The bank stock soared as much as 42% intraday, then pared some gains to trade up 30% at $8.54 by midday.Most of Signature's deposits will be assumed by the subsidiary, known as Flagstar Bank, after entering an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The deal, which was announced on Sunday, includes all of Signature's branches and some of its loan portfolio. But the takeover doesn't include Signature's $4 billion in crypto-related deposits. The FDIC will return these directly to customers. As for the non-crypto depositors at Signature, they will automatically become Flagstar depositors.Signature Bank was seized by New York regulators on March 12 following the failure of two other specialists banks: Silicon Valley Bank and Silvergate.Wedbush <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wedbush-upgrades-ny-community-bancorp-on-sweetheart-deal-for-signature-bank-assets-810a1915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upgraded</a> NY Community Bancorp to outperform from neutral , with analyst David Chiaverini citing an expected earnings lift from its Signature deal. "NYCB benefits from sweetheart deal as FDIC priced the assets to move quickly," he wrote in a Monday note, adding that the company's earnings per share will get a 20% boost from the acquisition.

New York Community Bancorp surges 42% after striking a deal to acquire the assets of failed Signature Bank

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Almost to the weekend! Changing phone chargers is already a massive headache, but now you have the bonus of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/using-the-wrong-charger-could-damage-ruin-your-iphone-2023-9">electrocuting your new iPhone 15</a> if you use the wrong USB-C plugin.Speaking of shocks, Citigroup announced a massive overhaul on Wednesday that'll <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9">reportedly lead to job cuts</a>. It's the latest example of the pressure big banks are under to keep their place atop Wall Street. More in today's big story.What's on deck: <ul><li>Markets: Why <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fire-movement-limitations-cons-early-retirees-back-to-work-2023-9">retiring early</a> isn't always as fun as it sounds.</li><li>Tech: Some founders are fed up with the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-founders-are-bootstrapping-instead-of-raising-money-from-vcs-2023-9">"debilitating" influence</a> that comes with VC money.</li><li>Business: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/online-shopping-hidden-junk-fees-getting-worse-sneakier-prices-tickets-2023-9">Online shopping's</a> hidden fees are becoming an epidemic.</li></ul>But first, we're going to switch things up.If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="Citi logo" height="1333" width="1778" msid="103665795" hostid="261" sizebytes="204518"></div>The big story<h2>Citigroup shuffle</h2>Ready or not, changes are coming to Citigroup. The bank announced a massive overhaul Wednesday that'll reduce management layers and almost certainly lead to job cuts. Insider's Jennifer Sor <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9">has more on the reorg</a>, deemed by CEO Jane Fraser as the most consequential change to Citigroup in nearly 20 years. Citigroup is pitching the move as a way to simplify its structure. Case in point: Fraser said the changes eliminated 35 committees. Changes like these are bound to ruffle some feathers, but Fraser isn't bothered by it. The reorg will "make some of our people very uncomfortable," but the CEO said she's "absolutely fine with that." That might seem like a harsh stance, but understand the bank needs tough love. Citigroup's share price is down nearly 40% since Fraser took over as CEO in March 2021. To be fair, Fraser's tenure has been an uphill battle. She inherited plenty of headaches from her predecessor, Michael Corbat. That included the bank <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citibank-revlon-loan-900-million-mistake-payment-how-it-happened-2021-2">accidentally wiring $900 million</a>, which is the type of thing that's typically frowned upon in banking. But two-plus years later, problems persist. Before the announcement, the bank's share price was down almost 9% this year, trailing all of its fellow big bank peers in the US except Bank of America. Citi's overhaul represents how big banks are scrambling to stay on top of a financial world passing them by. When news of Citi's reorg broke, I immediately thought of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/latest-goldman-sachs-news-2019-5">Goldman Sachs</a>. The prestigious investment bank has also grabbed headlines for its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-restructuring-david-solomon-mark-nachmann-winners-2022-10">multiple reorgs</a> amid a failed push into <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-investor-day-david-solomon-addresses-consumer-banking">consumer banking</a> under <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-defends-himself-dj-cnbc-2023-9">CEO David Solomon</a>. Meanwhile, my colleague <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/rebecca-ungarino">Rebecca Ungarino</a> pointed out that Wells Fargo has faced continued setbacks from a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wells-fargo-scandal-bank-overdraft-late-fees-foreclosure-settlement-history-2022-12">slew of fines</a> over the years as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/latest-wells-fargo-news-hirings-layoffs">CEO Charlie Scharf</a> continues to work to right the ship. Even the big bank having the best year — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-ceo-first-republic-bank-rescue-2023-3">JPMorgan</a> — isn't completely happy. CEO Jamie Dimon <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-bank-stocks-fed-capital-rules-economic-outlook-2023-9">recently quipped</a> he "wouldn't be a big buyer of a bank" in reference to proposed regulations requiring big banks to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-capital-requirements-regulation-basel-2023-6">keep more money on the sidelines.</a> But banks' retrenchment could just signal an opportunity for others to fill in the gaps. Whether it's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-promising-financial-startups-fintechs-2023">fintechs</a> or so-called <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/private-credit-shadow-banking-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-lending-2023-3">shadow banks</a>, there's no shortage of players looking to offer services previously dominated by big banks. That could be a welcome change, but there are risks to moving those services outside the walls of a highly regulated institution. Sometimes, the devil you know is better than the one you don't.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9">Read the full story. </a>3 things in marketsBefore the opening bell: US futures rise <a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/click/32703884.1358088/aHR0cHM6Ly9tYXJrZXRzLmJ1c2luZXNzaW5zaWRlci5jb20vcHJlbWFya2V0P3V0bV9tZWRpdW09bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fc291cmNlPVNhaWx0aHJ1JnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1JbnNpZGVyX1RvZGF5/63c964d0fd0e8ffc6308a4aeB0c0d0067" target="_blank" rel="noopener">early Thursday</a> after stocks <a href="https://newsletter.businessinsider.com/click/32703884.1358088/aHR0cHM6Ly9tYXJrZXRzLmJ1c2luZXNzaW5zaWRlci5jb20vbmV3cy9zdG9ja3Mvc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LW5ld3MtdG9kYXktaW5mbGF0aW9uLWF1Z3VzdC1jcGktZmVkLXJhdGUtaGlrZS0yMDIzLTk_dXRtX21lZGl1bT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9U2FpbHRocnUmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPUluc2lkZXJfVG9kYXk/63c964d0fd0e8ffc6308a4aeBcd67c613" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finished mixed</a> on Wednesday.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-economy-cpi-august-data-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="older woman browsing Costco medicine aisle" height="750" width="1000" msid="103665797" hostid="261" sizebytes="141900"></div><ol><li>Inflation is sticking around. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-inflation-economy-cpi-august-data-2023-9">Consumer Price Index rose</a> by 0.6% month over month in August, while core CPI increased 0.3%. The latest numbers mean there's a decent chance of another rate hike before the end of the year, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-outlook-federal-reserve-rate-hike-august-cpi-inflation-investors-2023-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to some estimates</a>.</li><li>Stock picks for bears and bulls. Bank of America analysts believe the economy has turned the corner and identified <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-economy-recovery-recession-investing-bank-of-america-2023-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50 stocks positioned to excel</a> during a recovery. But if you're feeling bearish, Morgan Stanley picked <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/investing-stocks-to-buy-now-upside-market-correction-morgan-stanley-2023-9">nine stocks</a> that'll allow you to hedge against the risk of a downturn. </li><li>The FIRE movement — Financial Independence, Retire Early — isn't always lit. Retiring young sounds great, but it can come with its own set of challenges. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fire-movement-limitations-cons-early-retirees-back-to-work-2023-9">Five early retirees</a> detailed problems with managing their money and finding a sense of purpose.</li></ol>3 things in tech<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/incredibly-lonely-high-paying-tech-job-seattle-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="photo compilation of person looking out on Seattle skyline" height="960" width="1280" msid="103665799" hostid="261" sizebytes="188396"></div><ol><li>"I moved to Seattle for a high-paying tech job. It turned out to be the loneliest time of my life." A recent grad moved from New York City for a software engineering role at Amazon, but nobody told him <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/incredibly-lonely-high-paying-tech-job-seattle-2023-9">how difficult making friends</a> would be. </li><li> Startup funding woes. VC funding for young startups is becoming more scarce — it's fallen for the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/seed-startups-venture-capital-funding-rounds-decline-2023-9">fourth quarter in a row</a>. Meanwhile, many startup founders are beginning to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-founders-are-bootstrapping-instead-of-raising-money-from-vcs-2023-9">turn away from VC funding</a> due to their "debilitating" influence after investing.</li><li> Apple's iPhone 15 event was revealing about its business. Wall Street had a pretty <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-iphone-15-launch-event-wall-street-reactions-aapl-stock-2023-9">mixed reception</a> of the new device. And while Apple celebrates the launch publicly, it's internally grappling with an increased reliance on China that could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-dependent-on-china-economy-manufacturing-problem-2023-9">cost the company billions</a>.</li></ol>3 things in business<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/online-shopping-hidden-junk-fees-getting-worse-sneakier-prices-tickets-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="Digital illustration of $10 with a hidden 0.00 behind it (making it $100.00)" height="960" width="1280" msid="103665801" hostid="261" sizebytes="92718"></div><ol><li>Hidden fees are about to get a lot more hidden. The recent push to eliminate junk fees means they're now folded into the upfront price — making it even <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/online-shopping-hidden-junk-fees-getting-worse-sneakier-prices-tickets-2023-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">harder to see them</a>. </li><li>A tiny-home startup endorsed by Elon Musk and Post Malone has got a regulator's attention. Three former Boxabl employees told Insider they were <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boxabl-tiny-homes-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-2023-9">recently contacted and interviewed</a> by the SEC. The news comes after an <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/boxabl-tiny-home-casita-production-governance-galiano-paolo-tiramani-spending-2023-2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insider report earlier this year</a> about production problems and questionable governance at Boxabl.</li><li>Some workers are super commuting to avoid moving. Amid the return-to-office push, some workers — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/workers-commute-plane-hybrid-work-rto-2023-9">from interns to CEOs</a> — are making extra-long commutes multiple times a week instead of moving closer to the office.</li></ol>In other news<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hunter-biden-sues-former-trump-aide-garrett-ziegler-illegal-data-hacking-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="Hunter Biden and Garrett Ziegler" height="1080" width="1440" msid="103665803" hostid="261" sizebytes="60660"></div><ul><li>Hunter Biden is suing a Trump aide over claims of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hunter-biden-sues-former-trump-aide-garrett-ziegler-illegal-data-hacking-2023-9">hacking his data</a>.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.insider.com/vmas-celebrities-best-red-carpet-fashion-looks-2023-9">best and most daring looks</a> from the VMAs.</li><li>Google cut jobs in its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-layoffs-recruiting-job-cuts-2023-9">recruiting division</a>.</li><li>Leaked documents: Microsoft managers need to distribute employee performance <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-new-employee-review-system-stack-ranking-2023-9">across a scale</a>.</li><li>Kristin Cavallari wants to introduce her true self through <a href="https://www.insider.com/kristin-cavallari-podcast-laguna-beach-divorce-interview-2023-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">her new podcast</a>.</li><li>Adtech firm GroundTruth hires bankers to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/groundtruth-hires-jegi-clarity-to-explore-possible-sale-2023-9">possibly pursue a sale</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett is just <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-stock-wealth-page-gates-ellison-musk-billionaires-2023-9">a few billion dollars away</a> from matching the fortunes of Bill Gates and Larry Ellison.</li></ul>What's happening today<ul><li>General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford auto workers could go on strike. Walking out could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-industry-uaw-strike-effects-inflation-michigan-recession-biden-election-2023-9">drive up inflation</a>, push Michigan into a recession, and even hurt Biden's re-election.</li><li>Nintendo Direct is hosting a livestream. It'll highlight Nintendo Switch games coming out this winter. The livestream will start at around 10 a.m. ET.</li><li>Earnings today: Adobe <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">and other companies</a>.</li></ul><a href="https://www.insider.com/what-to-pack-for-train-trip-from-frequent-train-traveler-2023-9"></a><div type="image" title="the author editing photos on her laptop during a 30-hour train ride in October 2021" height="975" width="1300" msid="103665807" hostid="261" sizebytes="123230"></div>For your bookmarks<h2>Train ride starter pack</h2>"I've spent 117 hours traveling 4,700 miles by train." This seasoned train traveler always brings essentials like <a href="https://www.insider.com/what-to-pack-for-train-trip-from-frequent-train-traveler-2023-9">sunglasses and motion sickness medicine.</a>The Insider Today team: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/dan-defrancesco">Dan DeFrancesco</a>, senior editor and anchor, in New York City. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/diamond-naga-siu">Diamond Naga Siu</a>, senior reporter, in San Diego. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/hallam-bullock">Hallam Bullock</a>, editor, in London. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/lisa-ryan">Lisa Ryan</a>, executive editor, in New York.

Insider Today: Big banks are screwed

<ul class="summary-list"><li>An Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria this week killed top IRGC officials.</li><li>The attack is part of a years-long shadow war between Israel and Iran — two bitter foes.</li></ul>In the days following a fatal Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria this week, the Middle East continues to hold its breath as it waits to see how Tehran might retaliate.The brazen attack on Monday, which killed multiple senior Iranian military officials, marks a significant escalation in what has been a years-long shadow war between Israel and Iran. It has also raised fears across the region that a larger conflict between the two countries may be looming, which would have grave consequences.And the Biden administration is not sitting on the sidelines, either, creating risks for the US as well. This complex conflict has in the past put US forces in the crosshairs, and war experts say Iran may choose to respond, at least in part, to the latest strike by targeting American troops stationed in the Middle East.<h2>'It is certainly significant'</h2>For years, Israel and Iran have traded attacks as part of their shadow war — a simmering conflict between two bitter foes that has, in recent memory, featured assassinations, cyberattacks, drone strikes at sea, and more.Amid these hostilities, Israel has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-ukraine-weapons-fighting-syria-russia-2023-2">long carried out airstrikes</a> against Iranian assets and the the movement of weapons in Syria. But Monday's incident was different from those in the past because of where it occurred and who it targeted.<div type="image" title="Emergency and security personnel gather at the site of strikes which hit a building next to the Iranian embassy in Syria's capital Damascus, on April 1, 2024." height="683" width="1024" msid="109066884" hostid="261"></div>"It is certainly significant," Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Business Insider, because this deadly incident "can be counted as the first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside."The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/world/middleeast/iran-commanders-killed-syria-israel.html">strike destroyed</a> an Iranian consulate building in Damascus and killed seven Iranian military officials, including two generals in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, according to a statement carried out by Tehran's state media.The IRGC was established in 1979 in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution and is listed by the US as a foreign terrorist organization. It is a separate branch of Tehran's armed forces and is responsible for supporting Iran's vast network of militias across the Middle East, which operate in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank.These groups make up the so-called <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/irans-axis-of-resistance-is-a-potent-coalition-but-a-risky-strategy">Axis of Resistance</a>, which seeks to destroy Israel and push its main ally — the US — from the region.In the aftermath of the Damascus strike, Iran blamed Israel, vowing revenge and harsh retaliation. But it also claimed that the US was responsible for the attack. Tehran's foreign minister, for instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Amirabdolahian/status/1774931580177334404">said</a> Tehran delivered a message to the Biden administration, through Switzerland, asserting that it would be held accountable.<div type="image" title="A banner displaying pictures of Israeli army officials with their faces encircled by a red crosshair icon, hang in Tehran on April 2, 2024 following a suspected Israeli strike in Damascus." height="683" width="1024" msid="109066889" hostid="261"></div>"Iranian officials and media are accusing the United States of enabling the Israeli airstrike, possibly to set conditions to target US forces in the Middle East," analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank wrote in a Tuesday <a target="_blank" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-2-2024">assessment</a>.The US, however, has repeatedly pushed back on Iran's accusations. A Pentagon spokesperson on Tuesday said the Biden administration "made it very clear" to Tehran through private channels that it was not responsible for the strike in Damascus, nor did it have any advanced knowledge about the attack.When asked if the Israeli strike will increase the risk to US forces in the region, Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters that she can't speak to "hypothetical actions" but said "we're going to continue to make sure that our forces are protected in the region. So, that means monitoring what's going on around them."<h2>Iran 'historically' holds the US accountable</h2>Iran-backed proxies have attacked US forces in the Middle East for many years as part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-allies-stuck-violent-cycle-iran-backed-militias-want-blood-2023-4">a larger cycle of violence</a> across the region. Analysts say the strategy is part of Tehran's goal of both ousting American troops from the region and also retaliating against Israeli strikes targeting Iranian assets and weapons shipments.But the tempo of these attacks significantly increased following Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, which triggered the ensuing ground invasion of Gaza.<div type="image" title="Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (R) meets with Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh (3rd L) in Tehran, Iran on March 26, 2024." height="670" width="1024" msid="109066892" hostid="261"></div>Iran-backed militias began firing missiles, rockets, and drones at US forces in Iraq and Syria <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-strikes-back-in-response-to-deadly-drone-attack-2024-1">on a routine basis</a>. By late-January, the Pentagon had tracked over 170 attacks. Then, three American troops were killed at a base in Jordan, and Washington retaliated with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-strikes-back-in-response-to-deadly-drone-attack-2024-1">widespread airstrikes</a> targeting Tehran's assets.Since early February, there has been relative calm across Iraq, Syria, and Jordan; the last attack against coalition forces occurred in early February, a US defense official told BI this week.The Damascus strike, however, has ignited fears that American troops in Iraq and Syria may be targeted again. Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the top US Air Force commander in the region, said Washington is <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-latest-04-03-2024-0980966d62c623bbff9e02841debee01">concerned</a> about this possibility.If Iran chose to go after US forces in response, it would not be unprecedented. In March 2023, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-air-strike-targets-syrias-aleppo-airport-statement-2023-03-22/">shortly after Israeli airstrikes</a> hit Iran-linked targets in Syria, Tehran-backed militants conducted a drone attack on a coalition base, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-defenses-werent-working-right-iranian-drone-killed-american-syria-2023-3">killing an American contractor</a>."Iran has historically held the United States accountable for Israeli military activity against Iran and its proxies," the ISW analysts said.<div type="image" title="US Army Soldiers, assigned to 37th Infantry Brigade Combat Team, fire an M119 Howitzer during a live-fire exercise at Al Asad Air Base, Iraq, May 11, 2023." height="2240" width="3360" msid="109066895" hostid="261"></div>It's certainly not a given that the US will get roped into the fallout of the Damascus strike. Nadimi, an expert in Iranian security affairs, said it's possible that Tehran will refrain from directly attacking American forces — especially in ways that could cause casualties — because it doesn't want to push Washington closer to Israel right now."They do not want to see any US airstrikes against their targets in the region," Nadimi said. Ultimately, if Washington steers clear of Iran's response to Israel, it can avoid becoming party to the retaliation until it escalates out of hand. Tehran also wants to avoid receiving condemnation from any of the countries in the region, he added."They will be very, very careful not to create any more enemies right now," Nadimi said. "They want to keep their focus on Israel."<h2>A 'rapid escalation' in the shadow war</h2>For now, it remains to be seen how Iran will respond. In the past, following the death of high-ranking officials, Tehran's response has ended with casualties, though it stopped short of all-out confrontation with the US or Israel.After the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, who was the IRGC's elite Quds Force commander, in a 2020 drone strike, for example, Iran fired dozens of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954">ballistic missiles</a> at bases housing US forces in Iraq. Around 100 American troops were left injured.<div type="image" title="Qassem Soleimani" height="683" width="1024" msid="109066898" hostid="261"></div>Hours later, amid sky-high tensions, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/17/middleeast/iran-sentenced-ukraine-plane-shot-down-intl-hnk/index.html">IRGC shot down</a> a passenger jet that was bound for Kyiv shortly after it took off from Tehran. The aircraft was mistakenly misidentified as a cruise missile, and all 176 people on board were killed.Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said on Wednesday that Tehran will make Israel "regret" its attack in Damascus. It's currently unclear what that may look like.The US will be closely monitoring the situation though. President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday that his administration "strongly supports" Israel as it faces threats from Iran, according to a White House readout of the call between the two leaders.Regardless of how Iran retaliates, whether directly or through a proxy militia in the region, Nadimi said it will likely force an Israeli response as the country seeks to strengthen its deterrence against Tehran."They will feel obligated to respond to any Iranian retaliation," he said, warning that "we will see a rapid escalation" in the shadow war.

A deadly Israeli strike in Syria ratchets up a years-long shadow war with Iran that could again put US forces in the crosshairs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Don't be surprised if stocks tumble and a recession takes hold, Greg Jensen says.</li><li>Bridgewater's co-chief investor says markets aren't pricing in inflation and growth risks.</li></ul><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-us-economy-inflation-outlook-fed-rates-bank-of-america-2023-6">Many investors are betting</a> that inflation will fade, the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates, the US economy won't skip a beat, and stocks will keep marching upward. They shouldn't rule out a recession and a slump in asset prices, Greg Jensen has warned."My view is you end up with growth disappointing a bit and inflation disappointing on the high side a bit, ending up probably bad for bonds and probably a little bit bad for equities and generally weak growth," the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/bridgewater-co-cio-greg-jensen-sees-bad-outlook-for-bonds-and-stocks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">predicted</a> during the latest episode of Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots" target="_blank" rel="noopener">podcast</a>."And if that weak growth starts to translate into a rising savings rate, you could easily end up [going] into a recession and one that's going to be difficult to deal with," he added.In response to inflation hitting a 40-year high last year, the Fed has hiked interest rates from almost zero to north of 5%. Higher rates typically spur consumers to save instead of spend, eroding demand for companies' goods and services. Employers react by laying off workers, which raises unemployment and reduces spending further, cooling the economy and relieving upward pressure on prices.However, a <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-fiscal-policy-asset-prices-economy-recession-2022-8">tidal wave of government spending</a> since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in early 2020 has watered down the impact of the Fed's hikes, Jensen said. There's so much money sloshing around the economy that consumers haven't ramped up their saving as much as expected, and businesses haven't pared their spending and investing much either, he continued.Higher rates should eventually take their usual toll, potentially causing a recession and likely weighing on asset prices, Jensen said. Yet the S&amp;P 500 has gained 16% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-chatgpt-tech-stocks-boom-nvidia-tesla-microsoft-nasdaq-composite-2023-7">soared 32%</a> this year, signaling investors aren't worried about a slowdown."The Fed seems a little bit more realistic than the markets do on what it's going to take," he said about squashing inflation. "To get an equity rally from here, you have to have lower rates fairly quickly into a world where earnings are pretty good."Jensen also predicted inflation would trend above the Fed's 2% target going forward, limiting the central bank's ability to cut rates when growth and employment are under pressure. However, the early backer of ChatGPT-creator OpenAI acknowledged that machine-learning tools could <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-chatgpt-roaring-20s-bull-market-ai-yardeni-2023-5">supercharge productivity</a> and ease inflationary pressures.The veteran investor has previously sounded the alarm on stocks and the economy. In September, he <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bridgewater-greg-jensen-asset-prices-stock-market-crash-inflation-recession-2022-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">warned</a> the US was at the center of a global financial bubble, a severe recession was looming, and asset prices could plunge by up to 25% and might not return to pre-pandemic levels against a backdrop of stubborn inflation and higher rates.Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, was founded by Ray Dalio. The billionaire investor and "Principles" author resigned as co-CIO in 2021.

Be ready for stocks to stumble and recession to strike, Bridgewater's co-chief investor says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jeffrey Gundlach touted bonds over stocks and said US house prices may dip when mortgage rates fall.</li><li>The billionaire investor flagged the risk of a recession striking in the second quarter of 2024.</li></ul>Banking jitters are more likely to boost bonds than stocks, house prices could drop, and a recession will probably hit by summer, Jeffrey Gundlach said.The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-bank-failure-what-happened-bank-run-explained-2023-3">regional-banking disaster</a> this spring has spurred people to pull their cash out of bank deposits and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/funds/high-yields-spark-investor-whiplash-trillion-floods-money-market-funds-2023-11">park it in money-market fund en masse</a>. Fresh money flowing into financial markets can be good news for stocks, but Gundlach dismissed the idea they would benefit significantly."I think it really misses the point to think people are going to go from a money-market fund, a six-month T-bill-and-chill type of a situation, and go into the Ark type of fund or the Magnificent Seven type of fund," he said. "That's such a monumental change in risk appetite that I don't think it's logical."Gundlach, a billionaire investor and DoubleLine Capital's CEO, made the comments during a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huyJW2OW-P0&amp;t=2s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent company webcast</a>. He argued an inflow of funds into Treasuries and other safe bonds was more likely.The veteran fund manager also discussed the US housing market, which has essentially frozen this year as buyers balk at taking on mortgage rates in excess of 7%, and prospective sellers hold off on listing their homes because they don't want to give up cheaper rates they've locked in. Mortgages have jumped in cost due to the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates from nearly zero to over 5% since March last year in response to historic inflation."I believe that if mortgage rates fall further by, say, a percentage point, I think we'll actually start to see home prices weaken because we'll unlock supply," Gundlach said. "Ironically we might have housing prices deteriorate along with falling mortgage interest rates — the opposite of what most of our 40-year experiences have been."Gundlach also rang the alarm on the national debt, warning interest payments could swell to roughly 20% of federal tax revenue within the next five years. He noted the US government has historically run budget deficits during recessions as it has scrambled to shore up the economy, and argued rates are likely to remain higher for longer, paving the way for US debt payments to balloon.The investor <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/bond-king-jeff-gundlach-us-debt-levels-exploding-recession-economy-2023-11">reiterated his view</a> that a prolonged economic slump is likely. He pointed to the yield curve staying inverted for a while and now threatening to reinvert, which has historically happened at "the front edge of the recession," he said.Gundlach also flagged the Philadelphia Fed's coincident economic indicators, which have hit levels that typically indicate trouble ahead."This is completely consistent with the potential for recession say in the second quarter or so of next year," he said.

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach flags risks to stocks, says house prices may drop, and sees a recession striking before the summer

Kolkata, Feb 29 () The proposed three-day bankstrike in the country called by various unions from March 11has been deferred following 'positive' developments at thebipartite meeting held in Mumbai on Saturday, an AIBEAstatement said here.The strike had been called by the constituents ofUnited Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU), the umbrella body of thetrade unions in the banking sector.All India Bank Employees' Association (AIBEA) statementsaid that in the bipartite meeting, which was held between theunions and Indian Banks Association (IBA), discussions wereheld in respect of offer of increase in pay slip cost to 15per cent, demand for five-day banking among others.The statement added that IBA has agreed to discuss allother issues raised by the unions.Bank unions had observed a two-day strike from January31 after talks over wage revision failed to make headway withthe IBA. dcKK KK

Bank strike deferred

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Writers Guild of America members are set to go on strike as their contract expires on May 1.</li><li>The union is seeking better pay and regulation on the use of AI, among other demands.</li></ul>A 28-year-old writer for FX's award-winning series "The Bear" said he's looking for jobs at movie theaters as members of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-writers-strike-salary-diaries-what-wga-members-earn-2023-4">Writers Guild of America (WGA) prepare to go on strike</a> Tuesday to demand better pay from studios.Alex O'Keefe, one of seven writers for the comedy starring Jeremy Allen White, told The New Yorker that writing for an acclaimed show has not translated into a glitzy Hollywood lifestyle."It's a very regular-degular, working-class existence," O' Keefe, who has also worked as a speechwriter for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, told the magazine.O'Keefe did not respond to a request for comment.While writing for the show for nine weeks, O'Keefe lived in a small apartment in Brooklyn without heat, wrote at a public library when the power was out, and was never flown to the set, according to <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/notes-on-hollywood/why-are-tv-writers-so-miserable">The New Yorker</a>.When the show was nominated for Best Comedy Series at the Writers Guild of America Awards in March, O' Keefe told The New Yorker he attended the ceremony with a negative bank account and dressed in a bowtie purchased with credit.The writers won the Best Comedy Series award that evening, beating "Abbott Elementary" and "Barry.""Unfortunately, I realized not all that glitters is gold," he said.About 98% of eligible WGA members — representing thousands of TV and film writers — voted to authorize a strike if a deal is not struck with the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hollywood-writers-strike-winners-losers-netflix-disney-warner-bros-discovery-2023-3">Association of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP)</a> by their contract's May 1 expiration date.The members' demands are better compensation and residual rates or pay for reusing a writer's work. Charles Slocum, an assistant executive director for the WGA west coast division, <a href="https://deadline.com/2023/04/hollywood-strike-streaming-residuals-wga-producers-1235325130/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Deadline</a> part of the problem is streaming services decided to pay residuals at a lower rate than traditional broadcasting outlets.And as streaming services slash costs by removing shows from their libraries, writers are also paid fewer residuals, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/streaming-shows-removed-residuals-4be3ac859c766c352e57ef96176fd812" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Associated Press reported.</a>The WGA union also wants to address "mini rooms," which allow studios to pump out a script with fewer writers before a show is greenlit. There are also concerns about using <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/screenwriter-union-proposes-they-can-use-chatgpt-for-full-credit-2023-3">artificial intelligence to produce material</a>."Writers are facing the most comprehensive assault on compensation and working conditions that we have seen in a generation," WGA said in a statement to Insider. "In this negotiation, we are fighting for a contract that increases writer pay and makes writing a sustainable career again. When the studios invest millions into producing a certain film or series, they can find it in their budgets to pay us for the value we create."In an emailed statement to Insider, AMPTP spokesperson Scott Rowe said the association is trying to "reach a fair and reasonable agreement.""The AMPTP companies have approached these negotiations with the long-term health and stability of the industry as our priority. We are all partners in charting the future of our business together and we are fully committed to reaching a mutually-beneficial deal," Rowe wrote.O'Keefe told The New Yorker that his compensation does not add up to much after accounting for representative fees and taxes. Agents or representatives who help clients obtain work and negotiate contracts typically take a percentage of a writer's check.Television writers are paid weekly rates, <a href="https://www.wga.org/members/employment-resources/writers-deal-hub/series-compensation-guide" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according to WGA's compensation guide</a>. A showrunner told Insider that first-time and newer writers could make around $40,000 to 60,000 for ten weeks of work. O'Keefe said the experience has been disillusioning."A lot of people assume that, when you're in a TV writers' room, you sit around a table, and you just dream together," O'Keefe told the magazine. "With 'The Bear,' I learned from these masters that, if you are given a shit sandwich, you can dress that up and make it a Michelin-star-level dish. And they were consistently given shit sandwich after shit sandwich."

A writer for FX's 'The Bear' went to the Writers Guild of America Awards with a negative bank account balance and won for Best Comedy Series. He's now applying for jobs at movie theaters as writers prepare to go on strike.

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Bank strike deferred

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A writer for FX's 'The Bear' went to the Writers Guild of America Awards with a negative bank account balance and won for Best Comedy Series. He's now applying for jobs at movie theaters as writers prepare to go on strike.

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