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Indian banks are expected to have steady growth in earnings and returns over the next 3–4 years, according to a recent report by Jefferies. It expects a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in loan growth for banks between FY24 and FY27, helmed by a supportive environment and expected adjustments in interest rates. "We expect steady growth in earnings and stable returns, Over FY24-27, the banks we cover should see 13% CAGRin loans We factor 25-50 bps cut in rates, &amp; depending on timing, NIMs will move," the report said. Depending on the timing, these rate cuts could impact banks' <keyword id="20076541" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-interest-margins" source="keywords">net interest margins</keyword> (NIMs), which measure the difference between interest income generated and interest paid to depositors. The report also notes that banks' net interest income (NII), a critical metric that is reflective of how much a bank earns from its lending, could grow at a steady 12% CAGR, which would support overall earnings growth. <h2>Rate cuts probable next year</h2>Per SBI Mutual Fund's monthly outlook for November 2024, while markets were initially speculating possible rate reductions in December this year or February next year these chances now stand dampened due to two reasons. First, elevated CPI numbers in September, which stood at a nine-month high, underlined the stickiness of food inflation. Secondly, RBI governor Das recently highlighted his hawkish stance at a conference, stating that "rate cuts at this stage would be premature and risky’. The report further adds that February 2025, or even April, would be a better time to discuss repo rate cuts in India. Even <keyword id="19985925" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit-growth" source="keywords">bank credit growth</keyword> has continued to outpace deposit growth for two years now. However, they seem to be inching closer in the recent past. For instance, in October 2024, while bank credit growth remained at 12.7%, the deposit growth rate followed closely at 11.8%. This also means that banks are witnessing an elevated bank credit-to-deposit ratio, standing at 77% in October. <h2>Risks in unsecured lending </h2>However, Jefferies noted some areas of caution that could influence growth in other revenue streams, particularly fees. Growth in fees may be at risk due to expected declines in the disbursal of unsecured loans, which generally carry higher interest rates and generate higher fees for banks. October saw stress and defaults rising in the unsecured lending space, prompting the RBI to intervene. As a result, unsecured loans by banks have only grown by 12.1%, the lowest since the pandemic. Despite these risks, the report expects banks' return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) to remain healthy, underscoring the sector's stable profitability potential. The report also highlights that while the Nifty Banks index has risen by 19% over the past year, it has still underperformed the broader Nifty index, which delivered 27% returns in the same period. BSE Bankex has been along similar lines, generating returns worth 19% over one year. While the Nifty banks' index has a YTD (yield to date) of 7.63%, it continues to trail Nifty's YTD of 11.30%

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

The Indian <keyword id="22196321" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card-industry" source="keywords">credit card industry</keyword> is struggling to grow, as new issues slow down on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. Not only has the growth i.e. issuance of new credit cards slowed down, but lenders are also becoming increasingly cautious of the asset qualities, a recent report by Nomura showed. From 19% in July 2024, the growth in the <keyword id="6368202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-card" source="Orion">credit card</keyword> spendings came down to 13% in August 2024. The year-to-date (YTD) growth has also significantly declined in FY25, currently standing at 17%, markedly down from 28% in FY24. For the fifth consecutive month, the number of new credit cards added to the system remained well below the 1-million, or 10 lakh mark. Around 9.2 lakh credit cards were added during the month, a slight uptick from the 7.55 lakh cards that came into the system In July 2024. However, there is growth in this space nevertheless, with about 10.55 crore active credit cards at present, marking a 15.6% YoY increase. Even the annualised spend per card, or the average amount spent via an annual card during an year grew 1% YoY to Rs 1.87 lakh. But this was far less than the 7% growth annual spends via one credit card saw in FY24. Meanwhile, what continues to burgeon consistently is the outstanding amount on these credit cards, which ballooned to Rs 2.7 lakh crore in June 2024, up from Rs 2.6 lakh crore in March 2024, and around Rs 2 lakh crore in the year ago period. To put this in perspective, pre-pandemic, the total outstanding amount stood at Rs 87,686 crore, which marks a 24% CAGR in this amount, in just a span of 5 years. <h2>Large drops, slowdown to sustain</h2>Even the monthly expenditure per card dropped 2% YoY to Rs 16,000 in August, 2024. Subsequently, the transaction volume via credit cards also dipped to 1.6% in August, along with the total amount of <keyword id="21084888" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-card-spending" source="keywords">credit card spending</keyword>, which fell to Rs 1.69 lakh crore in August, from Rs 1.73 lakh crore in July. Also, there has been a hefty cutdown in provisions made for credit card reward points, which reflects in the quantum of credit card benefits that have been mowed out by companies of late, making credit cards far less lucrative than before. <h2>HDFC takes lead </h2>During August 2024, <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC bank</keyword> added a total of 2.41 lakh credit cards, taking its total tally of active credit cards to 2.19 crore. <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> came a second distant, adding 1.45 lakh credit cards during the month, which means that the second-largest credit card issuer now holds over 1.75 crore active credit cards. Axis Bank and SBI Cards also added 1.27 lakh and 1.1 lakh cards, respectively to their repertoire during the month, while the growth numbers at Kotak Mahindra Bank remained largely flat, stagnating the bank's total card tally at 54.13 lakh. This was due to the ongoing ban on the bank due to its weak IT infrastructural issues imposed by RBI in April 2024. If anything, the bank's number of credit cards declined by 61,191 during the month. Even as the festive season approaches, experts think that it is unlikely to make a major dent in credit card spendings, which are expected to see a further slowdown in the quarters to come.

Credit card growth experiencing a slowdown, as borrowers struggle to pay back loans

Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

A research report by the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="state-bank-of-india" source="keywords">State Bank of India</keyword> (SBI) highlights the continuous upward trend in credit growth in Indian <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword>, which is outpacing the growth of deposits. This trend persists even as Indian households have substantially increased their investments in <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and equities. For the last several months, investments of over Rs 21,000 crore are being done in mutual funds. Last month, during an event, <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="keywords">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> noted that households are opting for capital markets over banks to invest or park their savings. However, the <keyword id="20352499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-report" source="keywords">SBI report</keyword> states, "Latest fortnightly credit and deposit growth number shows credit growth continues to outpace deposit, though moderated from last year growth of 16.2 percent (June'23 YoY)." Specifically, for the fortnight ending July 12, 2024 the report noted that the credit growth for All Scheduled Commercial Banks stood at 14 per cent on a year-on-year basis, while deposit growth was reported at 11.3 per cent. Furthermore, the report also served a significant increase in credit to the industrial sector, which rose from 5.1 percent in March 2023 to 8.4 percent in March 2024, and recorded 8.1 percent growth in June 2024 year-on-year. This indicates a robust demand for credit within the industrial sector. Despite big savings going towards the capital markets, banks have managed to gather an incremental deposit of Rs 7.02 lakh crore in the year-to-date (YTD) period ending July 12, 2024. In comparison, the incremental credit extended by the banks amounted to Rs 3.80 lakh crore during the same period. This discrepancy illustrates that while credit growth is substantial, deposit growth remains essential to maintain balance. Additionally, the report highlighted that banks' reliance on high-cost deposits, such as Certificates of Deposit (CDs), has more than tripled. This increase is a response to the need to match the rising credit demand, showing how banks are adjusting their funding strategies to accommodate the growing demand for loans. <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> Governor stated last month, "While bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of the financial assets owned by the households, their share has been declining, with households increasingly allocating their savings to Mutual Funds, Insurance Funds, and Pension Funds."

Credit growth in banks continues to exceed deposits, says new SBI report

<keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> on Saturday posted a marginal 5 per cent increase in its standalone profit at Rs 16,821 crore in the second quarter ended September 2024. The country's biggest private sector lender had earned a <keyword id="19942166" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="net-profit" source="keywords">net profit</keyword> of Rs 15,976 crore in the same quarter a year ago. Total income increased to Rs 85,500 crore during the quarter under review against Rs 78,406 crore in the same period last year, HDFC Bank said in a regulatory filing. The bank reported <keyword id="20202322" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-income" source="keywords">interest income</keyword> of Rs 74,017 crore during the quarter compared to Rs 67,698 crore in the same period a year ago. Net Interest Income (NII) improved to Rs 30,110 crore, from Rs 27,390 crore in the second quarter of previous year, registering a 10 per cent growth. As regards asset quality, the bank witnessed slight deterioration with gross <keyword id="19927319" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Non-Performing-Assets" source="keywords">Non-Performing Assets</keyword> (NPAs) rising to 1.36 per cent of the gross loans by the end of September 2024 from 1.34 per cent a year ago. Similarly, net NPAs or bad loans rose to 0.41 per cent from 0.35 per cent at the end of the second quarter of the previous fiscal. On a consolidated basis, the bank logged a growth of 6 per cent in net profit to Rs 17,826 crore as against Rs Rs 16,811 crore in Q2FY24. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/best-credit-cards-for-online-shopping-in-india/articleshow/114354358.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/personal-finance/news/best-credit-cards-for-online-shopping-in-india/articleshow/114354358.cms" target="_blank">Best credit cards for online shopping this festive season</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/best-smartphones-under-25000-in-india-in-october-2024/slidelist/114339207.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/best-smartphones-under-25000-in-india-in-october-2024/slidelist/114339207.cms" target="_blank">Best smartphones under ₹25,000 in India in October 2024</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/waaree-energies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114350114.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/waaree-energies-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/114350114.cms" target="_blank">Waaree Energies IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

HDFC Bank Q2 profit soars 5% to ₹16,821 crore

The bad assets or gross <keyword id="19964545" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NPAs" source="keywords">NPAs</keyword> of commercial <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> fell to a 12-year low of 2.8% in March 2024 and may go down further to 2.5% by the end of the current fiscal, said the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword>'s <keyword id="678734" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Financial-Stability-Report" source="Orion">Financial Stability Report</keyword> (FSR) released on Thursday. <keyword id="19982351" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Scheduled-Commercial-Banks" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Scheduled Commercial Banks" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Scheduled Commercial Banks">Scheduled Commercial Banks</keyword>' (SCBs) gross <keyword id="6401657" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="non-performing-assets" source="Orion">non-performing assets</keyword> (<keyword id="19982350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GNPA" source="keywords">GNPA</keyword>) ratio fell to 2.8%, and the net non-performing assets (NNPA) ratio to 0.6% at the end of March 2024. "The asset quality of SCBs recorded sustained improvement, and their GNPA ratio moderated to a 12-year low in March 2024. Their NNPA ratio too improved to a record low," said the June FSR. Among bank groups, public sector banks (<keyword id="20012926" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PSBs" source="keywords">PSBs</keyword>) recorded a substantial reduction (76 bps) in their GNPA ratio during H2 2023-24. While the GNPA stock decreased across all bank groups, active and deep provisioning by PSBs and foreign banks (FBs) resulted in an improved provisioning coverage ratio (PCR) in March 2024, the report said. The half-yearly slippage ratio (viz, new NPA accretions as a share of standard advances) decreased across bank groups. Though the amount of write-offs declined during the year, the write-off ratio remained almost at the same level a year ago due to a reduction in GNPA stock, the FSR said. Overall, it added the sustained reduction in the GNPA ratio since March 2020 has been primarily due to a persistent fall in new NPA accretions and increased write-offs. The RBI said macro stress tests are performed to assess the resilience of SCBs' balance sheets to unforeseen shocks emanating from the macroeconomic environment. These tests attempt to assess capital ratios over a one-year horizon under a baseline and two adverse (medium and severe) scenarios. "The GNPA ratio of all SCBs may improve to 2.5% by March 2025 under the baseline scenario," the report said. However, if the macroeconomic environment worsens to a severe stress scenario, the ratio may rise to 3.4%. Under the severe stress scenario, the GNPA ratios of PSBs may increase from 3.7% in March 2024 to 4.1% in March 2025, whereas it may go up from 1.8% to 2.8% for private sector banks and from 1.2% to 1.3% for FBs. The <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">Financial Stability</keyword> Report reflects the collective assessment of the Sub-Committee of the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC) on the resilience of the Indian financial system and risks to financial stability. The report further said deposit mobilisation by SCBs gathered pace during 2023-24, with a large portion of new accretions in the form of term deposits. "Interest rates became more attractive as banks stepped up efforts to mobilise funds to match the rapid rise in credit demand. Growth in current account and savings account (CASA) accelerated across all bank groups," the RBI said. According to the report, bank credit accelerated during H2 2023-24 among public sector banks (PSBs) and foreign banks (FBs), whereas it moderated in respect of private sector banks (PVBs). The share of credit to the services sector and personal loans in the aggregate loan portfolio increased. Personal loans accounted for over half of PVBs' <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>. The expansion in personal loans was broad-based, led by housing loans and followed by other personal loans.

Banks' gross NPAs at 12-yr low, may fall further to 2.5%: RBI report

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<keyword id="20599258" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-consumers" source="keywords">Indian consumers</keyword> demonstrated a significant increase in their <keyword id="21084888" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-card-spending" source="keywords">credit card spending</keyword> in July this year, marking a 19% increase compared to the same month last year. According to a report released by <keyword id="19945737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-Securities" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="SBI Securities" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="SBI Securities">SBI Securities</keyword>, the total expenditure by credit card users across the country reached an impressive Rs 1.7 trillion. This substantial uptick highlights the growing reliance on credit cards for transactions, reflecting broader economic trends and <keyword id="20740758" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-confidence" source="keywords">consumer confidence</keyword>. The report also highlighted a considerable increase in <keyword id="21118324" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="transaction-volumes" source="keywords">transaction volumes</keyword>, which surged by 39% year-on-year, reaching a total of 38.4 crore transactions in July 2024. This increase in the number of transactions underscores the widespread adoption and usage of credit cards as a preferred <keyword id="20632158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="payment-method" source="keywords">payment method</keyword> among Indian consumers. "Credit card spending in India increased 19% YoY to Rs 1.7 trillion in Jul'24. The transaction volume during the month was 38.4 crore, up 39% YoY" said the report. The report also noted that among the banks, <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> emerged as the leader in terms of transaction volumes, with its credit cards facilitating 9.9 crore transactions during the month. <keyword id="19900482" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICICI Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICICI Bank">ICICI Bank</keyword> followed closely with 7.1 crore transactions, while SBI secured the third position with 6.3 crore transactions. In terms of transaction value, HDFC Bank again led the way, with a total spend of Rs 44,369 crore through its credit cards in July. ICICI Bank and SBI followed with Rs 34,566 crore and Rs 26,878 crore, respectively. The report said "In Jul'24, transaction volumes was led by cards issued by HDFC Bank (9.9 crore) followed by ICICI Bank (7.1 crore) and SBI (6.3 crore)". Additionally, the <keyword id="22988051" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="average-transaction-value" source="keywords">average transaction value</keyword> (ATV) also saw a marginal increase of 1.4% month-on-month in July 2024. This marks the first increase in ATV in ten months, suggesting a shift in consumer behaviour towards higher-value transactions after a period of stagnation. Overall, these figures reflect the growth of credit card usage in India, driven by increased consumer confidence and the convenience offered by credit card transactions.

Indians credit card spending increases 19% YoY to Rs 1.7 trillion in July 2024

The <keyword id="21570567" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="credit-offtake" source="keywords">credit offtake</keyword> continued to grow at the rate of 13.9% year-on-year to reach Rs. 168.1 lakh crore for the fortnight ending July 12, 2024. However, the pace of growth was slow, a Care Edge report said. Credit offtake is a type of <keyword id="19946069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-credit" source="keywords">bank credit</keyword> that assists businesses in getting financing for future projects. The credit offtake increased by 14.0% year-on-year, but declined by 0.4% sequentially for the fortnight ended July 12, 2024. Over the last twelve months, credit offtake expanded by Rs. 20.4 lakh crore. The report attributed the sluggishness to the higher base effect and banks' focus on restraining the credit-to-deposit (CD) ratio. <keyword id="20218853" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposits" source="keywords">Deposits</keyword> grew by 11.3 % year-on-year for the fortnight, including the impact of the HDFC merger, reaching Rs. 211.8 lakh crore, driven by growth in time deposits. "The <keyword id="20575555" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-to-deposit" source="keywords">Credit to Deposit</keyword> ratio stood at 79.4 % for the fortnight (July 12, 2024). Meanwhile, if we study the credit and deposit inflows over the past 3 months and 6 months, we can observe that credit offtake has lagged the deposit growth numbers. Hence, the <keyword id="20048508" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CD-ratio" source="keywords">CD ratio</keyword> derived from these flows from January would be around 70% and from March would be approximately 54%," the report added. The report added that going forward, bank credit offtake could face challenges, and is likely to be tepid for the entire year. Inflows over the past three and six months show credit offtake at 5.3% for six months and 2.3% for three months, lagging behind deposit growths of 6.0% and 3.4% respectively. Deposits rose by 11.3% year-on-year for the fortnight, but declined by 0.5 % sequentially. In absolute terms, deposits expanded by Rs. 23.9 lakh crore over the last twelve months. The report anticipated that the deposit is expected to be strong in FY25, as banks focus on strengthening their liability franchise, sourcing funds through certificates of deposit, despite higher costs. As per the data in the report, the absolute growth in credit offtake was Rs. 8.4 lakh crore for six months, and Rs. 3.8 lakh crore for three months, lagging behind deposit growth of Rs. 11.9 lakh crore and Rs. 7.0 lakh crore for the same periods. The CD ratio has floated around 80 % since September 2023, standing at 79.4 % for the fortnight ending July 12, 2024, as per the report.

Credit offtake expanded by Rs. 20.4 lakh crore, deposits by Rs 23.9 lakh crore over the last 12 months

Economists at the country's largest lender, SBI, today said they see India's Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5% in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and whether it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7%. SBI analysts join a long line of agencies like Fitch, ADB, IMF, Moody, World Bank, S&amp;P, and even RBI in forecasting India's GDP growth for FY25 in the range of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY25, driven by robust consumption and investment. SIP inflows have been at an all-time high, and so has QIP (qualified institutional placement) fundraising. As many as 71 companies raised Rs 88,678 crore this year through QIPs. Activity in Indian primary markets also remained robust, with 78 mainboard IPOs in 2024; this is a 111% rise from just 38 listings in FY23. Between April and June 2024, India's real GDP grew by 6.7%, the lowest growth seen in 15 quarters, pushing experts to believe that India is caught in a cycle of slowdown. "There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy. Based on our analysis of 50 meaningful leading indicators (both consumption and demand-centric), a dip looks plausible across select cohorts of agriculture, industry, and services in Q2," the <keyword id="22337294" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-economists" source="keywords">SBI economists</keyword> added. Stating that they track 50 indicators to gauge economic activity, SBIs note said the proportion of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69% in Q2 FY25, as against 80% in Q2 FY24 and 78% in Q1 FY25. However, things might be changing now, given that rural demand has started looking up amidst muted urban demand. SBI also explained that the ongoing regulatory tightening on unsecured lending and roadblocks that are hindering rollover/refinancing of debt through unsecured credit are dismantling the unwarranted exuberance that had built up post-pandemic, especially in the urban areas. Madhu Lunawat, CIO &amp; Fund Manager, Bharat Value Fund states that the overall investment environment remains strong due to favorable economic conditions supporting government policies &amp; reforms. "The sustainable inflow from domestic investors is going to support the Indian equity market in any kind of correction. The long-term bullish structure of Indian economy will continue to attract new domestic &amp; global investors to participate in India’s growth story through various Investment avenues.” <h2>Rate cuts not on cards</h2>RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das clarified today that changing the monetary policy stance to 'neutral' does not mean a rate cut is imminent in the central bank's next policy announcement. Notably, RBI MPC is set to meet between December 4 and 6, 2024, to decide if the prevailing repo rate of 6.5%, which has stayed unchanged for the last 2 years, should be brought down or not. In its last meeting, The <keyword id="20501100" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-monetary-policy" source="keywords">RBI monetary policy</keyword> committee had shifted its stance to 'neutral' indicating that it is open to adjusting interest rates based on economic conditions. "It should not be assumed that we have done this, so therefore the next step is a rate cut. A change in stance doesn't mean that the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting. It's not so," Das said. Das also cautioned that inflation remains a key factor, and inflation and CPI prints for October are expected to stay high.

You Searched For "bank credit growth" and got 10 results

Indian banks to have steady growth in earning over next 3-4 years, fees from unsecured lending may dip, notes Jefferies report

BI India Bureau

Credit card growth experiencing a slowdown, as borrowers struggle to pay back loans

BI India Bureau

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

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Credit growth in banks continues to exceed deposits, says new SBI report

ANI

HDFC Bank Q2 profit soars 5% to ₹16,821 crore

PTI

Banks' gross NPAs at 12-yr low, may fall further to 2.5%: RBI report

PTI

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

Indians credit card spending increases 19% YoY to Rs 1.7 trillion in July 2024

ANI

Credit offtake expanded by Rs. 20.4 lakh crore, deposits by Rs 23.9 lakh crore over the last 12 months

ANI

SBI economists see Q2 GDP growth slowing down to 6.5%; FY25 growth to be closer to 7%

BI India Bureau

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