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<ul class="summary-list"><li>TD Bank shares fell 8% after it pleaded guilty to anti-money-laundering charges and agreed to pay a $3 billion fine.</li><li>The charges involved a scheme by Chinese cartels bribing TD employees at bank branches in New York and New Jersey.</li></ul>Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/td-stock">TD Bank</a> dropped as much as 8% on Thursday after it pleaded guilty and agreed to pay a $3 billion fine stemming from charges over its anti-money-laundering practices.The penalty is the largest ever anti-money-laundering fine imposed on a bank by US officials, eclipsing the nearly $2 billion fine HSBC paid in 2014 for transferring billions of dollars on behalf of Mexican drug cartels.Canada-based TD Bank's US unit also accepted an asset limit set by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency regarding how big its asset size can grow.The bank cannot grow past its current $370 billion in asset size for as long as the asset cap is in place.This is the first time an asset cap has been levied against a bank since 2018 when Wells Fargo accepted an asset limit due to its fake account-opening scandal."The OCC's coordinated and comprehensive action, including the imposition of an asset cap, will ensure that the bank focuses on building proper controls commensurate with its risk profile," acting Comptroller of the Currency <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2024/nr-occ-2024-116.html">Michael Hsu said.</a>The charges stem from an investigation that revealed TD Bank didn't have proper anti-money laundering practices in place.The lack of controls enabled a money laundering scheme to take place by Chinese drug cartels that were linked to fentanyl sales.The Chinese criminal operation involved bribing bank employees at TD branches in New York and New Jersey, allowing hundreds of millions of dollars in fentanyl sales to be laundered.TD Bank's settlement includes the Department of Justice, FinCEN, the Federal Reserve, and the OCC.In a statement in August, TD Bank CEO Bharat Masrani said, "We recognize the seriousness of our U.S. AML program deficiencies and the work required to meet our obligations and responsibilities is of paramount importance to me, our senior leaders, and our boards."Masrani has since said he will retire from the company in April.TD Bank stock has since pared its gains to about 6%, trading at $59.88 at 1:29 p.m. in New York.TD did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

TD Bank falls 8% after it faces $3 billion fine and growth caps over charges of enabling fentanyl-linked money laundering scheme

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings on Friday.</li><li>Expect lots of questions about how lower rates will impact business going forward.</li></ul>When Wall Street's biggest banks report earnings this week, led by JPMorgan Chase, investors will be listening closely for clues about how a changing interest-rate environment could impact business in 2025.The Federal Reserve in September cut the so-called federal funds rate by 50 basis points — <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-interest-rate-cut-ai-stocks-nvidia-broadcom-asml-tech-2024-9?_gl=1*1ax8rwf*_ga*MzQwMzI0MDQ1LjE3MjEzMDM4ODI.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ5MTE5OC4yOTAuMS4xNzI4NDkxMjEwLjQ4LjAuMA..">the central bank's first cut</a> in more than four years. The September 18 move took place too late to impact third-quarter results, but stock research analysts are expected to pepper executives this earnings season about what a lower interest-rate environment might mean for business going forward.Lower rates can be a mixed blessing for banks. On the one hand, the Fed's campaign to increase the cost of borrowing has contributed to an era of sky-high returns for traditional lenders like JPMorgan, which have been making more money on loans than they have been paying for deposits. But that party was never going to last forever. (Indeed, top JPMorgan exec <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/c11b59f6-4827-4c4e-9f24-2f075b85f665">Daniel Pinto warned last month</a> that stock analysts' so-called NII expectations were too high.)Plus, lower rates could help unleash <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-2q-earnings-david-solomon-investment-banking-forecast-2024-7">the dealmaking backlog</a> that investment bankers have been talking about since the pandemic-era M&amp;A boom started to slow in 2022. Their bonuses are counting on it.Speaking of bonuses, third-quarter results will also be closely watched on Wall Street as an indication of how well investment bankers may get paid this year.JPMorgan and Wells Fargo will kick off earnings on Friday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Bank of America on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley will report its earnings on Wednesday. Here are the top four things to look for this bank earnings season:<h2 id="629d7158-9393-4502-a5a4-b8a898b107c5">Investment banking</h2>Investment bankers have been predicting dealmaking will return since it started slowing in 2022. But this year, there are strong signs that companies are ready to start going public and merging again.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megamergers-deals-m-a-wall-street-comeback-2024-9">Preliminary data compiled by LSEG</a> shows 425 mergers globally so far this year valued at more than $1 billion. That's up 24% from the same period in 2023. What's more, deals valued at greater than $10 billion were recently up 39% compared with the same period last year.The number of companies going public is also soaring. 106 US companies have gone public through the third quarter, raising a total of $24.7 billion, according to IPO tracker Renaissance Capital. That's up from 71 in 2022 and 108 in 2023 and on track to beat the $27 billion raised in those two years.Third-quarter results — and commentary about 4Q dealmaking so far — will be closely watched for further signs of progress in M&amp;A, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting.<h2 id="bf745d80-abee-4488-881c-e8551a17811c">Trading</h2>At the Barclays Financial Services conference in September, big bank executives warned that trading revenues may be muted compared to 2023.Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon described a "more challenging macro environment, particularly in the month of August," and warned that the bank's trading business "is trending down close to 10%." Solomon cited the bank's revenues for FICC, or fixed-income, currencies and commodities, saying that results were "very, very strong" in the third quarter of 2023.At the same conference, JPMorgan's president and chief operating officer, Daniel Pinto, predicted that trading revenues would be "flat to slightly up 2%." "It was a bit more challenging environment to monetize client flows, particularly in rates," he said.<h2 id="723af9a4-99cc-49fd-b909-2fc736985cbb">Lending</h2>Stock analysts will be watching what banks say about net interest income, which is how much banks earn off the difference between what they pay on deposits and what they earn on loans. When the Fed started raising rates, banks were making out like bandits because they were able to charge more for loans more quickly than they were raising rates on savings accounts.But banks have been warning that this dichotomy wouldn't last forever, and loan growth has indeed been slowing as the economy slows. Lower rates could boost lending yet again, but that could take time. In the meantime, JPMorgan's Pinto in September warned that Wall Street stock analysts' 2025 predictions for NII of between $91.5 billion and $90 billion were too high, sending the bank's stock down."I think that that number will be lower," Pinto said at the Barclays Financial Services conference. "We are not going to guide on that now, but the $90 billion is a bit too high."<h2 id="b126e3af-7e38-4ed0-b6d7-4e67905737f9">Bonuses</h2>Banks tend not to talk about bonuses on earnings calls, but how bankers will be paid will be reflected in C-Suite comments about dealing and trading generally — as well as their predictions for the rest of 2024 and into next year.In good news, compensation expert Johnson Associates sees bonuses up this year across the board, an analysis that's reflective in part of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.osc.ny.gov/press/releases/2024/10/dinapoli-wall-streets-2024-first-half-profits-232b-were-793-higher-last-year">Wall Street's earnings results</a> so far this year. See here for the compensation expert's views on bonuses for debt underwriting, equity underwriting, sales and trading, and more.<div type="image" title="Wall Street bonus predictions" height="630" width="1950" msid="114096916" hostid="261" sizebytes="88820"></div>

4 trends to watch this bank earnings season

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BlackRock's Rick Rieder says there are "no sellers" in the equity market.</li><li>Stocks will keep rising despite soaring market valuations, he told Yahoo Finance.</li></ul>Even with stock-market valuations hovering <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-crazy-town-valuation-mania-sp500-barry-bannister-2024-11">near generational highs</a>, BlackRock's bond chief highlighted one key reason why stocks can continue higher."There's no sellers," Rick Rieder — the firm's global CIO of fixed income — said at a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yjz_kTaO5pA">Yahoo Finance conference</a>.On the buying side, momentum is abundant, even as the prospect of persistently high interest rates boosts the appeal of the money-market funds."You think about the amount of money that comes into 401(k)s, wealth, salary — X percent goes into equities, and there's no sellers," he said.Rieder added that corporate buybacks are also backstopping stock market prices. Big companies have bought a trillion dollars worth of their own shares, he noted, shrinking the equity supply and pushing per-share values higher."So you shrink the denominator because they're buying back a bunch of their stock, and there's no sellers," Rieder said.He sees this more than offsetting any valuation pressures, even with one S&amp;P 500 adjusted-earnings ratio close to the highest it's been in the last century, according to new research from Deutsche Bank.And although Rieder sees current valuations as stretched, he added that market multiples could return to reasonable levels if earnings rise significantly higher."People want — myself included — want the multiple lower. But boy, it's pretty hard," he said. "If there's no egregious piece of news, geopolitical, et cetera, the natural migration is to higher prices."To be sure, Rieder himself has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">previously noted impending risks</a>, previously forecasting that US debt could lead to a market shakeup. But this won't be an immediate threat."I think markets tend to react to the shark closest to the boat," Rieder said last week. "The shark on the debt dynamic is not going to be next to the boat in January or February, but it is going to get next to the boat sometime. I don't know if it's the latter part of 2025 or the beginning of 2026 unless they address the size of the spending dynamics, the amount of debt we're issuing, and, then obviously, inflation relative to that."

BlackRock's bond chief explains why stocks will keep charging higher despite stretched valuations

<ul class="summary-list"><li>American consumers and businesses are having a hard time paying off credit card, auto, and commercial real estate debt.</li><li>US banks have increased their reserves in part to prepare for potential loan losses.</li></ul>US banks are having a harder time <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/credit-score/what-is-debt-collection">collecting debts</a>, so they're taking precautions.According to Federal Reserve data, the past-due debt share for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paid-off-credit-card-debt-solid-plan-2024-6">credit card</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-credit-card-debt-auto-loans-delinquency-economic-outlook-bofa-2024-9">auto</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-debt-property-losses-mortgage-interest-rates-prices-2024-7">commercial real estate</a> has recently risen to above pre-pandemic levels. The share of debt banks have written off as a loss because they couldn't collect it has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/chgallsa.htm">ticked up</a>, with the charge-off rate for two of these three loan types the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS">highest</a> they've been in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCREXFACBS">more than a decade</a>.Business Insider spoke to industry insiders who said this has prompted a response from big banks anticipating a continued increase in bad loans. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-banks-us-list">US banks</a> have increased their reserves in recent years, effectively setting aside cash to cover potential loan losses.While it's commonplace for banks to increase their reserves as loan levels rise over time, reserves have started gradually making up a bigger share of total loans at firms like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wellsfargo.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/third-quarter-2024-earnings.pdf">Wells Fargo</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9d388ee07cccbcc3c8dc5bafe2ea4aff/bankofamerica/db/775/10116/webcast_transcript/2024-10-15+BAC+3Q+Earnings+Call_ADA.pdf">Bank of America</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/3rd-quarter/6bca0e4a-703c-4fff-8e70-f026f015fee5.pdf">JPMorgan</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q32024/3Q24-SUPP-ForWeb.pdf">Citigroup</a>. Since June 2022, Wells Fargo's and Bank of America's reserves have risen by about $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion respectively. Still, for context, these firms' cash coffers are still considerably lighter than they were during the Great Recession.<h2 id="3bd35426-2903-4a17-860b-981ba0e86427">America's 3 debt pain points</h2>Each month, the New York Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/debtexp-1">asks</a> roughly 1,300 Americans to estimate the chance they'll be unable to make a minimum debt payment over the next three months. Aside from the pandemic, Americans haven't been this pessimistic since 2017.Consumers' struggles to repay credit card and auto debt suggest that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rates</a>, while moderating in recent months, are still taking a toll on their finances. Additionally, businesses' struggles to pack back commercial real estate debt show that factors like elevated interest rates and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-market-interest-rates-commercial-real-estate-federal-reserve-pandemic-2024-9">remote work revolution</a> are still having lingering effects.Here's a closer look at each of the three debt categories:<h3 id="df61242d-618b-4bfb-824d-874b5a53ce4d">Credit card debt</h3>As of the second quarter of this year, more than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS">3%</a> of all credit card accounts in the US had past-due balances — up from less than 2% in 2021.The steady uptick in past-due credit card debt over such a short period of time provides some cause for concern, Bruce McClary, a nonprofit credit counselor and senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, told BI."What we are seeing is that people are struggling to repay debt while continuing to use up what is left of their available credit — forcing more people to start falling behind on their payments and into the hands of debt collectors," he said.David Schiff, senior managing director at FTI, told BI that prolonged debt-repayment problems will eventually present a bigger risk to the economy.The increase in reserves raises "real concerns about the softness of certain assets classes — specifically ongoing uncertainty around the commercial real estate market, and increasing worry about the number of revolving credit card customers and their rapidly growing balances," Schiff told BI.<h3 id="2c271636-eeeb-43a1-a28b-b69f0c808b83">Auto debt</h3>A Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-and-high-monthly-payments-20240926.html">report</a> published on September 26 found that auto loan delinquency rates rose "substantially" above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, driven in large part by growth in monthly debt payments.In fact, a growing number of Americans owe more than their cars are worth, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=76e351eb917843c15c21c91acd7d8e92304c81583e3e5bb129c38093d6e7aff2&amp;postID=67114ad8434c477c23344eb6&amp;postSlug=big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edmunds.com%2Findustry%2Fpress%2Fnegative-equity-on-the-rise-the-average-amount-owed-on-upside-down-car-loans-hit-an-all-time-high-in-q3-2024-according-to-edmunds.html%3Futm_source%3Dsubstack%26utm_medium%3Demail">report</a> published on October 15 by the automotive website Edmunds. Stephen Biggar, director of financial services research at Argus Research, told Business Insider that if a bank is forced to repossess such a vehicle, the car's value wouldn't even cover the loan, resulting in losses to the bank. He said that the uptick in auto delinquencies is "not a spike, but is kind of a concern about what goes on from here."<h3 id="108a8464-8ec8-4eb3-8b19-f2eb7af18b2d">Commercial real estate</h3>Another problem for banks is that some businesses with commercial real estate loans are struggling to repay them. Biggar said some of this is tied to high vacancy rates among offices. While many companies have called employees back to the office since the height of the pandemic, office vacancy rates still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/office-vacancy-rate-record-high">rose</a> to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-outlook-office-buildings-vacancies-commerical-markets-investors-remote-2024-1">record highs</a> over the past year.Elevated interest rates have also made it difficult for businesses to pay back debt on commercial real estate loans related to offices, retail, hotel, and apartment building properties, among others. That's because some loans are coming due — forcing businesses to refinance at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-big-trouble-crash-bank-crisis-2024-2">much higher interest rates</a>.To be sure, we're still far from a debt crisis: The share of past-due and charged-off debt generally remains in line with historical levels after rising from pandemic-era lows. Additionally, some banks are simply restoring reserves that were depleted during the pandemic. However, if the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-layoffs-inflation-spending-job-market-tariffs-morgan-stanley-2024-10">economy slows</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-recession-unemployment-rate-september-payrolls-report-fed-cuts-2024-10">unemployment rate</a> rises further, the uptick in delinquencies could become a larger concern, Biggar said.<h2 id="3723386c-1711-4911-97f5-b3d9337f3327">Wall Street acknowledgement</h2>While <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-earnings-calls-interest-rates-fed-cuts-debt-2024-10">banking executives</a> this earnings season generally spoke highly of the economy, they did acknowledge that elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on American consumers."Our customers are healthy, but more discerning in their spend with signs of stress isolated," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/citigroup-c-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> Jane Fraser, Citi's CEO, referring to consumers with lower credit scores.Brian Moynihan, Bank of America's CEO, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/bank-of-america-bac-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcri/">said</a> that overall consumer spending remains strong but that "consumers are worried of the cost of living, worried about higher rates, and other matters."Charles Scharf, Wells Fargo's CEO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/wells-fargo-wfc-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> the bank hasn't seen "meaningful changes" in delinquency rates across its credit portfolio, but that there is evidence of financial strain among some Americans."We continue to see more pronounced stress in certain customer segments with lower deposit and asset levels where inflation has partially offset strong employment and wage growth," he said.Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan's CFO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcrip/">said</a> that consumers' discretionary spending has "normalized" following particularly strong levels in recent years.The financial roller coaster of pandemic payments, whipsawing inflation, and high interest rates are especially affecting lower-income Americans."We know consumers at a certain income level and below are strapped," Biggar said, adding, "There's been a lot of concern, particularly at the lower income category, that people are unable to make ends meet."Going forward, Biggar said that many banks could continue adding to their reserves, particularly if the unemployment rate rises further. That might not ultimately be necessary, since the jobless rate has <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">stabilized</a> over the past two months after a surprise increase."I'm not expecting any big spike from here unless the unemployment rate moves materially higher," Biggar said of further reserve reinforcements.

Big banks are bracing for losses as Americans struggle to pay off debt

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A number of bank research desks have raised their S&amp;P 500 price targets in recent weeks.</li><li>The adjustments come as the index continues its bull market run, up 3% in the last month and 23% this year.</li></ul>The bull market hasn't weakened in the fourth quarter, and top bank research desks have been rushing to raise their S&amp;P 500 price targets into year-end. Strategists from Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have raised their year-end price targets on the S&amp;P 500 in recent weeks as the benchmark index continues to hit record highs. On Monday, it notched its 46th all-time high of 2024. UBS strategists Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey upped their 5,600 price target to 5,850 for the end of the year, marking their fourth upgrade since late last year.The target is just slightly above the level the index is trading at on Wednesday, but the analysts forecast a 9% rise in the next 15 months and raised their target for 2025 from 6,000 to 6,400 in a note on Tuesday. Earlier this month, meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its target on the index to 6,000 by December, marking the fourth increase since late last year. The call, from the firm's chief equity strategist David Kostin, is the second highest among those tracked by Bloomberg.Kostin said the estimates were driven by a steady macro outlook and greater margin expansion."The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said, adding, "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."Kostin's price target is just behind that of BMO's chief equity strategist, Brian Belski, who raised his forecast from 5,600 to 6,100 last month. Belski's new target implies a nearly 5% gain through the rest of this year.Belski said his upgrade was based on strong market gains so far this year, which he says typically leads to stronger-than-normal gains in the fourth quarter."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in a note.He added that Federal Reserve easing and a broadening market rally will only help fuel further gains.Deutsche Bank also raised its year-end target for the S&amp;P 500 last month, up to 5,750 from 5,500. The bank's strategists pointed to strong corporate earnings and inflows, rising stock buybacks, and higher risk sentiment."We see S&amp;P 500 earnings growth continuing to run robustly in the low double digits, in line with typical growth rates outside of recessions," the strategists said in a note.The strategists' target raises come amid a chorus of strategists turning decidedly more upbeat on the market. JPMorgan's chief equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wall-street-biggest-bear-jpmorgan-stock-market-outlook-interest-rates-2024-10">recently recommended</a> investors should get less defensive after a strong September jobs report."While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term, especially since surprisingly strong job growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate broke a slowing trend in the job market," he said in a note earlier this month.Lakos-Bujas kept his 4,200 price target for the S&amp;P 500 unchanged, though.The more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">bull market charges on</a>, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year. Several risks persist, though, with the upcoming US presidential election in November, an unclear trajectory of monetary policy easing from the Fed as economic data comes in mixed, and as war in the Middle East continues to threaten stability in the region and beyond."Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, and potential election outcomes, make 2025 returns far from certain," UBS analysts said.

Top Wall Street analysts are boosting stock market forecasts as the bull market charges on

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> has imposed <keyword id="21834852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-penalties" source="keywords">monetary penalties</keyword> on three Non-Banking Financial Companies for <keyword id="20170050" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="non-compliance" source="keywords">non-compliance</keyword> with directions of <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> on <keyword id="20200326" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="housing-finance-companies" source="keywords">housing finance companies</keyword>. As per the official statement from RBI on Friday, it has imposed a monetary <keyword id="19899183" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="penalty" source="keywords">penalty</keyword> of Rs 5 lakh on <keyword id="23068625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Godrej-Housing-Finance" source="keywords">Godrej Housing Finance</keyword> Limited, Rs 5 lakh on <keyword id="20389260" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Aadhar-Housing-Finance" source="keywords">Aadhar Housing Finance</keyword> Limited, and Rs 3.5 lakh on Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited. These penalties by the regulator have been imposed in the exercise of powers conferred on RBI under the provisions of Section 52A of the <keyword id="20200606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Housing-Bank" source="keywords">National Housing Bank</keyword> Act, 1987. As per RBI, the statutory inspection of these companies was conducted by the National Housing Bank (NHB) with reference to their financial positions as of March 31, 2022. The RBI stated that based on the supervisory findings of non-compliance with RBI directions and related correspondence in that regard, a notice was issued to the companies advising them to show cause as to why a penalty should not be imposed on them for their failure to comply with the RBI directions. After considering the companies' replies to the notice, oral submissions during the personal hearing, and additional submissions made by them, the RBI found that Godrej Housing Finance Limited failed to obtain two independent valuation reports before sanctioning certain loans of Rs 75 lakh and above. For Aadhar Housing Finance Limited, the RBI stated that the company charged interest on loans for a period prior to the date of the actual disbursement of the loan/issuance of the check to certain borrowers, in contravention of RBI directions on the 'Fair Practices Code.' The penalty on Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited has been imposed because the company failed to undertake risk categorization of its customers during the financial year 2021-22, did not put in place a system for periodic review of risk categorization of accounts, and did not create a floating charge on the assets invested by it in terms of Section 29B of the NHB Act, in favor of its depositors, and register the same with the Registrar of Companies.

RBI imposes penalties on three housing finance companies for non-compliance with directions

In March 2023, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser anointed Anand Selva, as the bank's chief operating officer. His mandate: oversee a deeply unsexy yet crucial initiative to regain compliance with regulators. At the time, she praised his "long track record of delivering results."So far, Selva's tenure has been rocky.In July, two regulators <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-jane-fraser-regulatory-citigroup-transformation-2024-7">fined Citi $135.6 million</a> for failing to make enough progress in fixing its data-management issues. The bank had agreed in 2020 to work on this problem and others, including poor risk controls, after <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/citigroup-slammed-400-mln-fine-longstanding-deficiencies-regulation-occ-fed-2020-10-1029660295">paying $400 million</a> in fines to the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC said in July that the bank had made "meaningful progress overall" but that the agency wanted to ensure Citi allocated enough resources to address the "persistent weaknesses" regarding data.These new fines are despite Citi dedicating massive resources to a firmwide initiative to overhaul the bank's technology. This program, called the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-transformation-citigroup-regulatory-fine-anand-selvakesari-2024-7">"Transformation"</a> and overseen by Selva, has about 13,000 employees. Citi spent $7.4 billion on the endeavor from 2021 through 2023. This year's budget has been increased by $250 million, to more than $3 billion.The pressure is on, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren urging the OCC to "impose growth restrictions" on Citi, arguing that it has grown "too big to manage." The regulator and Citi declined to comment."We've always said that progress wouldn't be linear," Fraser said after the latest fines, "and we have no doubt that we will be successful in getting our firm where it needs to be in terms of our Transformation."For Selva, leading the Transformation is unlike any test he has faced in his three-decade career at Citi. Selva, who goes by the shortened version of his last name, Selvakesari, joined Citi as an assistant operations manager in Chennai, India, in 1991. He rose through the ranks in Asia before taking over the US consumer bank in 2019. When Fraser was made CEO in 2021, she chose Selva, who's now 57, to replace her as the global head of consumer banking.In his current role, his mandate is to make the bank safer, not to turn a profit. To do so, he has to solve for Citi's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-real-reasons-behind-citi-mike-corbat-early-retirement-2020-9">decades of underinvestment</a> in its infrastructure, which affects every business line of the bank.Business Insider talked to 14 current and former Citi employees who have worked under Selva to get a picture of the challenge facing him and why he was put in charge of the bank's No. 1 priority. All but two spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisal or the sensitivity of regulatory matters. Three senior executives pointed to his experience navigating regulation and working with technology from running Citi's consumer bank. Gonzalo Luchetti, Selva's successor as the head of the US consumer business, told BI that serving 70 million customers required handling tremendous operational risk."If we mess it up, usually you don't mess it up for one; you mess it up for hundreds of thousands, if not millions," he said. "You have to be super good at process orientation and making sure that there's high discipline and rigor."Luchetti also emphasized Selva's longevity at Citi and experience across regions."He knows the fabric of the firm very well," Luchetti said. "The Transformation is about really repiping the machine. He's touched a lot of the machine himself."But touching the machine isn't the same as fixing it. Eight employees told BI that they were surprised that Selva was made the head of the Transformation given that he had never held a leadership role in technology or compliance. They described Citi's culture as a cliquey environment that rewards managing up over results, noting that the COO promotion followed dismal performance for the wealth unit he oversaw."The biggest job was given to a guy who with 1 ½ years in wealth wasn't able to do anything," a former managing director said.Selva has also come under scrutiny for a lawsuit filed against him and the bank by an ex-Transformation executive in May. Kathleen Martin, a former interim data chair, alleged that Selva pressured her to hide information from the OCC that would make Citi "look bad" and that she was fired in September 2023 after multiple refusals. Citi denied the accusations and filed a counterclaim in late August, alleging that Martin was fired for underperformance. Citi has recently made leadership changes to Selva's unit. The bank tapped its new tech head, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-data-tim-ryan-anand-selva-memo-transformation-regulators-2024-9">Tim Ryan</a>, to lead the data effort alongside Selva and take over management of the 800-employee data team. The work on data, along with risks and controls, is paramount to the Transformation.Splitting the burden may expedite the massive task, which requires coordinating work from employees across the entire bank. Citi declined to specify a timeline, citing the confidential nature of regulatory matters. A managing director in the Transformation estimated that the work required would take about two decades.Mike Mayo, a Wells Fargo analyst, said that until Citi meets the requirements of the OCC and the Federal Reserve, the bank is in "regulatory purgatory.""Citi has thrown over 10,000 people and $3 billion and more at this problem," Mayo told BI in July. "They just have to get it done."Selva does have a long track record at Citi. Born in Madurai, a large city in southern India, he studied engineering and played basketball at the Coimbatore Institute of Technology. He earned his master's in business administration at Madurai Kamaraj University before joining Citi in 1991.Selva made his name at Citi by shaping its consumer-bank businesses across Asia. He led retail banking in China and India before taking over the Asia Pacific market in 2015. His approach was digital-first, eschewing branches for banking apps. Despite closing 60% of bank branches in Asia from 2016 through 2018, Selva grew deposits by 10%.<div type="image" title="Citi's Anand Selva speaking at a panel, seated and wearing a pinstripe suit and a red tie." height="3307" width="4960" msid="114093573" hostid="261" sizebytes="2310830"></div>"He's very tech and digital-oriented," Luchetti said. "We've been to China together to look at startups and firms that were disrupting the world. He was always very connected with learning more about technology, had that curiosity, and then the execution chops to get it done here."In 2019, Selva moved from Singapore to New York, where he now lives with his family, to run the US consumer bank. He assumed the global consumer-banking business from Fraser in 2021. Selva leaned on credit-card and lending offerings, launching products like Citi Custom Cash which allowed customers to pick their reward categories, and Flex Pay, a buy-now, pay-later service. Under Selva, Citi was the No. 2 issuer of credit cards in the US, and deposits grew by more than a third, to about $220 billion.In 2021, Citi started divesting itself of more than a dozen consumer-bank markets across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Selva was an important player on both sides of the table, according to Adora Tidalgo, the head of operational risk management at Citi. She said he helped find Asian acquirers that maximized value for Citi while keeping the businesses running smoothly with low attrition."That skill of balancing how much you want to bring in terms of revenue and the credit loss you want to take is really a skill that very much needs to be honed in the consumer space," she said. "That balancing, to me, I have seen Anand over the year been very successful in doing that."There have been some bumps in the road. As part of Fraser's reorganization of the bank in 2021, Selva gained oversight of a newly formed wealth unit and its new leader, Jim O'Donnell. Six current and former managing directors told BI that Selva's approach focused more on scale and digital offerings than high-touch client service. For instance, he didn't approve loans that failed to meet a certain threshold of return, even if it meant losing an important client, two former managing directors said."The way that every private banker on earth thinks about relationships is you need to invest in relationships, and then as you start to do more business with clients, you start getting more and more valuable opportunities with them," one of the former managing directors said. "You have to look at the relationship. You can't just look at every single transaction."Employees argued that Selva's playbook may have worked to build scale in Asia but not to satisfy well-heeled — and much more sought-after — US clients."I think Anand's decisions were comparing everything to what he knew from his time in Asia, and they are completely different markets," another former managing director said. "In Asia, Citi has a very recognizable brand, and people actually want to bank with Citi. You don't have to sell it that hard."<div type="image" title="Citi CEO Jane Fraser testifying at Congress" height="3828" width="5846" msid="114093582" hostid="261" sizebytes="314760"></div>The wealth business' revenue dropped by 6% year over year at the end of 2022. Fraser called the division's performance "disappointing." O'Donnell's reign over wealth was cut short in January 2023, and it was later placed under <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-sieg-citi-wealth-management-ceo-2024-6">Andy Sieg</a>, the former head of Merrill Wealth Management. With Citi on a campaign to divest itself of 14 international consumer-bank markets, Selva's remit shrank.His appointment as COO thrust him into the spotlight. Tidalgo told BI that he was no stranger to the task of dealing with regulators."When you are the head of a country, you are the face of Citi to the regulators. Good, bad, or indifferent, you have to face them," she said. "That's part of the job."Citi's Transformation and its challenges predate Selva's appointment as COO. It existed as a firmwide initiative before the October 2020 fines but was kicked into overdrive after Citi entered consent orders with the OCC and the Federal Reserve.It can be viewed as two parts. The most visible is the strategy to simplify and modernize the bank, such as divesting Asian consumer businesses, removing five layers of management, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9">reorganizing</a> so that the five business lines report directly to Fraser.The second part is meant to address the 2020 consent orders. The initiative is separated into seven programs, including finance, compliance, and risk and controls. While some 13,000 employees are dedicated to the Transformation, much of this work is carried out by employees across the bank. Selva sits at the center, coordinating these efforts. He's in a tough position, as much of the Transformation's work is executed by employees in other divisions."The challenge with the Transformation role is you are accountable yet not responsible," the managing director in the Transformation said. "The role is really coordinating and getting others to do what they need to do, which is very different from running a business where the entire team follows your lead, you own it, you have the ability to actually get them to do this stuff."When everyone is accountable, effectively no one is, a former senior vice president in the Transformation said. Matters got stuck in bureaucracy, bouncing from one department to another and being debated in committee for months.A senior executive in the Transformation acknowledged that the programs often rely on each other's work. For example, a delay in data work can lead to one for a finance project."When we are asked sometimes why it is challenging to execute on the Transformation, one of the challenges is the interconnectivity of those seven works," she said.The senior executive said the Transformation's successes had been overlooked, partly because the bank is limited in what it can say on regulatory matters. For instance, Citi has retired or replaced a quarter of its applications, halfway to its overall goal. The bank declined to specify the number of existing or terminated applications, but as of July, it had retired nearly 300 applications this year. The senior executive also touted the bank's streamlining its risk-management workflow.But the Transformation has earned a middling grade from Citi itself. The bank evaluates the initiative's success for the purposes of a bonus program applicable to about 200 senior employees, including Selva. In 2022, an internal committee gave it a score of 94%, citing targets it met, such as submitting remediation plans to regulators.For 2023, the score sank to 80%, calculated by measuring the timeliness of executing scheduled work, the percentage of work deemed complete by the bank's internal auditors, and a "qualitative consideration of Citi's cultural change" derived from the bank's employee surveys.<div type="image" title="Headshot of Citi's new tech head Tim Ryan, smiling and wearing a black suit jacket with a light blue shirt" height="739" width="985" msid="114093578" hostid="261" sizebytes="32120"></div>Bringing in Ryan, the bank's head of technology and business enablement, to help the bank catch up makes sense. The recruiter Phil Waxelbaum argued that a more traditional candidate to help lead the Transformation would be a seasoned, high-ranking person from a regulatory agency. But someone with a nonbanking background such as consulting or technology can work, too, according to recruiter Jeffrey Warren. Ryan joined Citi in June after seven years leading the US business of PricewaterhouseCoopers."In situations like this when you are looking to drive transformation, you need someone who can work at the intersection of people, processes, and technology," said Warren, managing director at Russell Reynolds Associates. "That includes working from within and likely driving some change with new people who have experience in new technologies or new ways of doing things."Ryan is now sharing data, a significant component of the Transformation, with Selva. Another PwC alum, Citi's head of enterprise risk management, Ashutosh Nawani, will take over the chief data office from one of Selva's lieutenants, Japan Mehta, and report to Ryan. Mehta will move to another role that the bank declined to specify.Employees told BI that they thought bringing in Ryan and Nawani would help."Sure, there might be some reservation that more consultants are coming in to run Citi, but there is a positive vibe of changing senior leadership," the former senior vice president in the Transformation said. "Legacy Citi culture is what got us into this spot in the first place."While the July fines did not meaningfully move Citi's stock, they have placed the bank and the Transformation under greater scrutiny. The OCC has ordered Citi to provide a resource-review plan each quarter to ensure the bank is providing enough resources for the effort. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also required the bank to address the Transformation's progress in future filings.The outstanding issues have also impeded Citi from expanding in China. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/citigroup-s-china-expansion-plan-put-on-hold-by-us-regulators">Bloomberg</a>, the bank is still waiting on a clearance letter from the Federal Reserve to set up a securities office. The bank declined to comment on the process but said it was "fully committed to supporting clients" in China.<div type="image" title="Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at a hearing on Capitol Hill on January 11, 2024." height="1333" width="2000" msid="114093583" hostid="261" sizebytes="96482"></div>Regulators placing an asset cap on Citi, as Senator Warren has requested, isn't out of the realm of possibility, said Timothy Coffey, an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott."At what point do the regulators just get fed up with Citi's inability to adequately resolve these issues or stick to the timeline that they've laid out?" he said. "That's an open-ended question."But the consent orders and the lack of progress are distractions in themselves. When Fraser took over Citi nearly four years ago, she said the Transformation was her No. 1 priority and asked for patience. Now her requests for time are wearing thin. Regardless of who leads the Transformation, Fraser is still accountable."This stays out here in terms of headline risk, and I think it puts a cap on the valuation that Citi can achieve," said Stephen Biggar, an Argus Research analyst. "It's an overhang on the stock. It's an overhang on the reputation of Fraser."Do you work for Citi? Have a tip or story to share? Reach out to Hayley Cuccinello at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:hcuccinello@businessinsider.com">hcuccinello@businessinsider.com</a> or 917 740 5340, which works for calls, text, and the encrypted messaging app Signal.

Meet the executive tasked with Citi's hardest challenge: getting the bank's house in order

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The CEO of Nigeria's Air Peace airline has been charged with obstruction of justice.</li><li>US prosecutors say Allen Onyema submitted false documents to the government to try to curtail a fraud investigation.</li></ul>Allen Onyema, the CEO and founder of Nigeria's Air Peace airline, has been charged with obstruction of justice in the US, adding to previous charges of bank fraud and money laundering.A press release from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndga/pr/ceo-nigerian-airline-and-co-defendant-indicted-obstruction-justice">US Attorney's Office for the Northern District of Georgia</a> says that Onyema, 61, was charged with "submitting false documents to the government in an effort to end an investigation of him" that led to those earlier charges, which were brought in 2019.Ejiroghene Eghagha, 42, Air Peace's chief of administration and finance, was also charged with obstruction, the press release says.The pair were indicted in 2019 over allegations that they had moved more than $20 million from Nigeria through US bank accounts by using false documents based on the purchase of five Boeing 737 planes.The indictment, seen by Business Insider, says they submitted export letters of credit to fund the purchases, along with supporting purchase agreements, bills of sale, and appraisals.But prosecutors argue that these documents were fake and that the company supposedly selling the planes, the Georgia-registered firm Springfield Aviation, was owned by Onyema and managed by someone with no connection to the aviation industry."The aircraft that was referenced in each of the export letters of credit was never owned or sold by Springfield Aviation," the indictment says.Once the money was in the US, prosecutors say Onyema laundered over $16 million by moving it to other accounts.In 2019, investigators then say Onyema, aware he was under investigation, told the Springfield Aviation manager to sign but not date a business contract.His attorneys are later said to have presented this document — which was now dated before the alleged fraud began — to the government "in an effort to stop the investigation and unfreeze his bank accounts."Following the latest charges, Ryan Buchanan, the US Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia, said: "Onyema allegedly leveraged his status as a prominent business leader and airline executive while using falsified documents to commit fraud."<div type="image" title="Prince Harry and Meghan Markle arriving in Lagos." height="682" width="1024" msid="114193357" hostid="261" sizebytes="101644"></div>Earlier this year, Onyema made headlines after he welcomed Prince Harry and Meghan Markle to Nigeria.Harry and Markle flew from Nigeria's capital Abuja to Lagos on Air Peace in May, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13418423/Harry-Meghan-welcomed-Nigeria-fugitive-fraudster-wanted-laundering.html">MailOnline</a> reported at the time.An unnamed source close to the pair told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/prince-harry-meghan-markle-push-back-on-nigerian-wanted-fugitive-claims">the Daily Beast</a> that the couple's travel within Nigeria had been arranged by the Nigerian Chief of Defense Staff.Business Insider has contacted Air Peace for comment.

CEO of Nigeria's Air Peace charged in US with obstructing investigation into $20 million fraud probe

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy is on solid footing with cooling inflation and continued growth.</li><li>Yet, the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with analysts divided over how long the bull rally can run. </li></ul>Things are looking great for the US economy.Inflation is falling, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">productivity is rising,</a> and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, which should act as a tailwind for economic growth.Economists have shifted from arguing about a potential recession to forecasting whether a "soft landing" or "no landing" is more likely. It seems the debate is simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">about how fast the economy can grow from here.</a>But the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with major Wall Street banks still divided on whether stock prices have further room to run.Stocks are trading near record highs, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%.Among the top analysts at Wall Street banks, there's some disagreement about whether all of the good news is priced in already or if the market can continue to rise beyond already lofty valuations. On the one hand, most see the gains set to continue, pushing past election uncertainty and continuing to lift stocks into 2025. However, beyond that timeline, uncertainty builds and outlooks get murky. Here's what Wall Street is saying about the prospects for the stock market heading into 2025 and beyond.<h2 id="62a39dfb-29e2-437a-b286-98b65dca264e">The Bulls</h2>A slew of Wall Street banks are chasing the record rally in the stock market this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">boosting their S&amp;P 500 year-end price targets</a> to play catch-up.Strategists at UBS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">increased their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in a note last week, expecting the S&amp;P 500 to hit 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 at the end of next year.That represents potential upside of 8% and 13%, respectively.UBS CIO head of US equities David Lefkowitz said "healthy" earnings growth will pave the way for further stock gains."Third-quarter earnings season has started on a positive note with bank management teams highlighting that consumer spending remains healthy and consistent with normal economic growth," Lefkowitz said.The bank said improving inflation, more Fed rate cuts, and accelerating investment in artificial intelligence should all help support the stock market next year.Strength begets more strength, and that's a big part of BMO strategist Brian Belski's bullish outlook for stocks into 2025.Belski <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,100</a> from 5,600 last month, making him one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in the note.He's also encouraged by the broadening out of the stock market rally, as it's no longer concentrated in a handful of tech giants. That's healthy behavior for sustainable stock market gains, according to the note."This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead," Belski said.<h2 id="fc7c3d7b-c8d5-4665-bd3c-1c08a92b6ce4">The Bears</h2>The bearish strategists on Wall Street are sticking to their views even after being wrong all year. Their top worry is the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than expected and growing hype in AI that might fail to deliver.JPMorgan strategists have held firm to their bearish S&amp;P 500 year-end price target of 4,200, which represents potential downside of 28% from current levels.In a note earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas admitted that a recession appears off the table but said that AI investments are unlikely to pay off with lingering questions around monetization issues.Additionally, investor expectations of a Federal Reserve that is about to embark on a string of interest rate cuts could be disappointed if the economy continues to stay resilient, as it would limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, likely putting downward pressure on stock prices.Finally, JPMorgan warned in a note on Monday that third-quarter earnings have seen a flurry of estimate downgrades as sell-side analysts lower their expectations."Earnings downgrades have been significant," JPMorgan said, adding that they "appear to be worsening."Stifel strategist Barry Bannister has warned investors about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">a potential plunge in the stock market in 2025.</a>Elevated valuations, unfounded expectations for more Fed rate cuts, and hype for AI that ultimately falls short of expectations could create a perfect storm for lower stock prices next year."We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," Bannister said.While the strategist admitted that a "mania" could take hold in the market and push stock prices even higher from here, it will ultimately end with a crescendo and then a fresh swing to the downside."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," Bannister said.<h2 id="1f44d16a-28c8-40a7-bee1-9a426c3bf02e">Somewhere in between</h2>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish, at least in the short term.The bank's chief stock strategist recently increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,000 on the prospect of further growth in corporate earnings. "The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."And yet, Kostin also argues that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">a golden era of stock market returns is probably over</a>. In a note over the weekend, Kostin issued his 10-year forecast for the stock market. He said that a combination of extreme market concentration and high valuations suggests the S&amp;P 500 will deliver annualized returns of just 3% over the next 10 years. That's compared to the S&amp;P 500's annualized return of about 13% over the past 10 years."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," Kostin said.Goldman also sees stocks struggling relative to other assets over the next decade. The bank says the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bond-market returns and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.His long-term view aligns with other bears who fret that the coming decade will look much worse than the last. Stifel's Bannister has also argued for a "lost decade" for the stock market.

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

Around 75 % of <keyword id="20593458" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UPI-users" source="keywords">UPI users</keyword> will stop using it if any transaction charge is levied on the service, a survey by LocalCircles said today. The survey found that 38% of users make over 50% of their payment transactions via <keyword id="19900911" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="UPI" source="keywords">UPI</keyword> instead of debit, credit, or any other form of digital transaction. "Only 22 % UPI users surveyed are willing to bear a <keyword id="20813527" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="transaction-fee" source="keywords">transaction fee</keyword> on payments, 75% of respondents stated that they will stop using UPI if a transaction fee is introduced," the survey said. The survey comprising three broad areas, claims to have received 42,000 responses from 308 districts but the number of replies on each question varied. The questions regarding transaction fee on UPI received 15,598 responses. The <keyword id="19907219" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Payments-Corporation-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="National Payments Corporation of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="National Payments Corporation of India">National Payments Corporation of India</keyword> (NPCI) posted a record 57% rise in the volume of transactions and 44% rise in value in the 2023-24 fiscal year, compared to the previous fiscal year. For the first time UPI transactions crossed 100 billion and closed at 131 billion in a financial year, compared to 84 billion in 2022-23. In value terms, it touched Rs 199.89 trillion, compared to Rs 139.1 trillion, the report said. The survey found 37 % of respondents shared UPI transaction accounts for more than 50 % of their total payment in value terms. "With UPI rapidly becoming an integral part of nearly 4 in 10 consumers, there is strong resistance to any kind of direct or indirect transaction charges being imposed. LocalCircles will escalate the findings of this survey with the <keyword id="19908390" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ministry-of-Finance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ministry of Finance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Ministry of Finance">Ministry of Finance</keyword> and <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) so that the pulse of the UPI user is taken into account before any MDR charges are permitted," the survey report said. The survey was conducted online, between July 15 to September 20.

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