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<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

A unit of <keyword id="6437412" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Qatar-Investment-Authority" source="Orion">Qatar Investment Authority</keyword>, <keyword id="119583" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-Mutual-Fund" source="Orion">SBI Mutual Fund</keyword>, and foreign investment funds <keyword id="6354527" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nomura" source="Orion">Nomura</keyword> and <keyword id="44473" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Citigroup" source="Orion">Citigroup</keyword> were the biggest buyers of shares in <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani group</keyword>'s <keyword id="22661797" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="power-transmission-unit" source="Orion">power transmission unit</keyword>'s USD <keyword id="22661798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-billion-QIP" source="Orion">1 billion QIP</keyword>, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. The Rs 8,373.10 crore (USD 1 billion) qualified institutional placement (QIP) of <keyword id="19964750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Energy-Solutions" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Energy Solutions" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Energy Solutions">Adani Energy Solutions</keyword> Ltd (AESL), which closed last week, saw over 120 investors seek shares in the firm that is into power transmission, distribution and smart metering business. Billionaire <keyword id="22623487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Stanley-Druckenmiller" source="keywords">Stanley Druckenmiller</keyword>'s family office-led investment firms were among the companies that sought shares of AESL in the QIP. AESL in the filing said its board has approved allocation of over 8.57 crore shares to eligible qualified institutional buyers at the issue price of Rs 976 per share, reflecting a discount of Rs 51.11 (4.98 per cent) to the floor price of Rs 1,027. Giving details of allottees who got more than 5 per cent of shares, it said INQ Holdings LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of QIA, cornered 15 per cent of the shares sold. Two Mauritius funds of Citigroup bought 8.88 per cent of the shares sold while four SBI funds - SBI Infrastructure Fund, SBI Large &amp; Midcap Fund, SBI Long term Advantage Fund Series IV and SBI Magnum Children's Benefit Fund - together took home 7.93 per cent of the shares. Nomura Singapore Ltd ODI cornered 7.5 per cent of the shares, the filing showed. INQ had in August last year acquired nearly 2.7 per cent in Adani Green Energy Ltd - the renewable energy firm of the conglomerate run by billionaire Gautam Adani. In 2020, it had acquired a stake in Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd, a subsidiary of AESL. The AESL QIP last week was oversubscribed six times and fetched demand of over Rs 50,000 crore against an issue size of USD 1 billion. <keyword id="22636516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Duquesne-Family-Office" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Duquesne Family Office" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Duquesne Family Office">Duquesne Family Office</keyword> and two other US-based long-only funds - Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates - bought shares but AESL did not disclose the exact number of shares they bought since these were less than 5 per cent of the issue size, sources said. The QIP issue marked the debut of highly prestigious long-only investors Duquesne Family Office, Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates which are known for their strong performance. These investors are known for investing only in companies with high governance and are known for staying invested for decades. The QIP was the first public equity raise by the conglomerate since a damning Hindenburg report last year wiped away billions in shareholder value. The demand generated made the AESL QIP the largest in the energy space. Duquesne was founded by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who along with George Soros in 1992 broke the Bank of England by shorting the British pound, leading to its crash and earnings over a billion dollars. Adani Group has a history of introducing several long-only investors in the market. In the past years, it has brought large investors including GQG Partners and International Holding Company (IHC) besides QIA. Other major global names that participated in the QIP include Blackrock, Jupiter Asset Management, and Eastspring. Domestic mutual funds that have participated included HDFC Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund, Bandhan Mutual Fund, LIC, WhiteOak, 360One among others. Insurance companies including SBI Insurance, SBI Pension and ASK Asset Management have also participated, according to sources. QIP is an instrument used by listed companies to raise funds from large institutions. The fundraise is the first after Adani group's flagship firm scrapped a Rs 20,000 crore issue in February last year, following the Hindenburg report alleging accounting fraud and stock manipulation. Though the group vehemently and repeatedly denied all allegations, listed companies of the conglomerate at one point saw over USD 150 billion of their market value being wiped out. While the group has largely recovered, a successful QIP is being seen as a powerful vote of investor confidence in the tycoon. Separately, Adani Enterprises Ltd, the flagship firm of the group, is looking to revive its first-ever public sale of bonds. It plans to raise as much as Rs 600 crore. The company has hired Trust Investment Advisors, AK Capital Services and Nuvama Wealth Management as lead managers for the issuances. The group had tapped the dollar bond market in March this year - the first time since the Hindenburg report - when its solar energy unit Adani Green Energy Ltd and associated firms got bids of about USD 2.9 billion.

Qatar Investment Authority unit, SBI funds, Citigroup biggest buyers in Adani Energy's USD 1 billion QIP

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Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

Ira Alok Puranik

Qatar Investment Authority unit, SBI funds, Citigroup biggest buyers in Adani Energy's USD 1 billion QIP

PTI

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