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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tesla stock is down 7% since it reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday. </li><li>JPMorgan sees the stock drifting even lower, by as much as 48% to its $130 price target.</li></ul>JPMorgan raised its price target for Tesla stock — but the bank still sees shares of Elon Musk's electric carmaker falling almost 50% in the coming year. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/TSLA-stock">Tesla</a> stock is down 7% since it reported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q3-deliveries-preview-wall-street-expects-beat-mojo-returns-2024-9">third-quarter vehicle deliveries</a> on Wednesday, but JPMorgan thinks it can go much lower.In a Thursday note, the bank set its December 2025 Tesla stock price target to $130, representing potential downside of 48% from Wednesday's close.That target is a slight increase from the bank's prior target of $115 a share.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> analyst Ryan Brinkman, Tesla could be on the verge of not growing its full-year unit volumes for the first time ever."The continued softer trend now appears to position Tesla to potentially not grow full year unit volumes for the first time in its history, which we estimate could cause incrementally more investors to reconsider the company's growth stock multiple," Brinkman said.Year-to-date, Tesla has delivered 1.29 million vehicles. To exceed its 2023 vehicle delivery volumes of 1.81 million vehicles, the company would have to deliver more than 520,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which is more than what Wall Street analysts expect.Consensus estimates on Wall Street are tracking at about 500,000 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said.Meanwhile, the most vehicles Tesla has ever delivered in a quarter is 484,507, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.Brinkman believes Tesla's potential inability to grow vehicle deliveries this year, which CEO Elon Musk has previously said should grow at an annual rate of 50% for the long term, could cause investors "to pay more attention to the growing gap between fundamentals and valuation."And even with its $130 price target, Brinkman believes that's a generous valuation for the automaker."Despite implying material downside risk, we feel our valuation analysis, nevertheless, generously values Tesla as the world's most valuable automaker, given it is suggestive of a ~$400 market capitalization vs. Toyota $290 bn despite considerably less earnings and cash flow and given the company's stalled automotive growth over the past two years makes it harder to embrace the hyper growth story," Brinkman concluded.Of course, while Brinkman has been a longtime Tesla bear, the bulls view it as less of a traditional automaker and more of a technology company.Tesla is set to host an event on October 10 to showcase its robotaxi plans. Meanwhile, Tesla bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley has speculated that Tesla can grow its valuation by selling its own phone and even drones."Is it just me, or are you seeing more 'breadcrumbs' from Tesla's CEO that could potentially connect Tesla with aviation?" Jonas asked in a note earlier this week.This differing view among analysts — over whether Tesla is an automaker or a tech company — explains the widening gulf between price targets among the bears and the bulls. Jonas has a $310 price target for Tesla stock, more than double Brinkman's $130 target.

JPMorgan just raised its price target for Tesla — but it still expects a 48% crash in the stock

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street's bullishness for Nvidia stock endures even as shares trade at record highs. </li><li>Analysts are upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li></ul>Nvidia stock is trading at record highs, but that's not deterring top Wall Street analysts from being bullish. Bank analysts have been hiking their price targets for the chip titan in recent weeks, predicting more upside even as the stock has seen a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-blackwell-ai-market-value-costco-jensen-huang-2024-10">meteoric rise</a> over the past year.Shares traded above $142 each on Monday, hitting a fresh record as investors gear up for the company's next earnings report on November 20. The stock is up 193% year-to-date. But Nvidia still has plenty of room to climb, according to forecasters. They point to signs of frenzied demand for the company's AI-enabling GPU chips and a long list of partnerships with enterprise "hyperscalers." Here's what some of Wall Street's top forecasters are saying about their bullish outlook for the stock. <h3 id="724900f4-99db-4302-98bd-dea4cac3d847">Bank of America, $190 price target</h3>BofA strategists <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-upside-growth-ai-chips-demand-bofa-2024-10#:~:text=Bank%20of%20America%20analysts%20raised,helped%20by%20its%20enterprise%20partnerships.">raised their price target</a> for the chipmaker to $190 from $165 per share last week, implying another 35% upside from the stock's current levels.The upside will be driven by Nvidia's competitive advantage over other chipmakers, as well as the "generational opportunity" in the AI market, which is expected to grow to $400 billion, analysts said in a note."Driven by our increased NVDA Data Center Compute outlook, we now see the AI accelerator market growing to $280bn by CY27E (and over time toward $400bn+) from just ~$45bn in CY23. AI models (demand) continue to evolve," the bank added.Strategists pointed to positive signs for Nvidia's future chip demand, including commentary from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-impact-q1-earnings-season-ai-nvda-stock-price-capex-2024-5">other tech firms</a> and comments from CEO Jensen Huang, who described the demand for Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell chip as "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-jensen-huang-blackwell-gpu-demand-ai-tech-2024-10">insane</a>."Nvidia, meanwhile, also has a number of "underappreciated" business partnerships with firms like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/acn-stock">Accenture</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-reaction-microsoft-partnership-for-minecraft-graphics-overhaul-2019-8">Microsoft</a>, which should contribute to the upside potential. "We also highlight a growing presence of AI in enterprise, where NVDA is the partner of choice," the bank said. "NVDA's engagements span multiple verticals (e.g., Accenture, ServiceNow, Microsoft), and offerings such as AI Foundry, AI Hubs, NIMs are key levers to its AI leadership, not only on the hardware side but also on systems/ecosystems side."<h3 id="6a528da2-bcac-4a58-87fb-9d0b14415a80">Goldman Sachs, $150 price target</h3>Goldman analysts raised their price target to $150 from $135 a share, implying 6% upside from the stock's current levels.Strategists said they changed their price target after a meeting with Huang. The Nvidia CEO spoke of the company's advantage over other chipmakers, and the bank said that Nvidia's "competitive moat" is built on the firm's installed base, its innovation, and its "robust and growing" software offerings. "Although we acknowledge that the company's revenue trajectory beyond CY2025 remains uncertain, we expect the stock to perform at least consistent with estimate revisions given relative valuation multiples that remain depressed relative to history ... and the potential for a re-acceleration in fundamentals driven by the upcoming Blackwell product cycle," strategists wrote.Blackwell could also help produce several billion dollars in revenue for Nvidia, the strategists estimated."By integrating seven chips, and each playing a role in delivering higher performance at the data center level, we view the introduction and ramp of Blackwell not only as a near- and medium-term revenue growth driver, but also a dynamic that extends Nvidia's competitive advantage. The ramp of Blackwell-based products remains on track with several billion dollars in revenue expected in the January quarter followed by further growth in April and beyond."<h3 id="7231a134-d8fb-40e0-8065-37b2205636b4">CFRA Research, $160 price target</h3>The research firm CFRA raised its price target to $160 from $139 per share, implying a 13% upside from current levels. According to Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, that's due to increased confidence that Nvidia will post better-than-expected growth, particularly as customers scramble to get their hands on the new Blackwell chip."The higher multiple and target reflect our higher conviction that NVDA will post results that exceed our/consensus views in CY 25, as Blackwell ramps. As we previously cited, Blackwell will take greater wallet share from hyperscalers (e.g., greater GPU, CPU, networking, and software revenue) amid an AI war in the cloud," Zino wrote.<h3 id="1efd5f91-dce2-45d4-bfa2-1ada5f7366f2">Bernstein, $155 price target</h3>Bernstein raised its price target to $155 a share shortly after the chipmaker reported its second-quarter earnings in August. Similar to other firms' forecasts, Bernstein's upside prediction is based on the success of the Blackwell GPU. "People are getting excited about the story again, especially as we approach earnings, and then year-end into next year is their new platform, Blackwell, really starts to ramp. Look, by all indications, their own commentary, all the supply checks and everything else, demand for this product just looks off the charts," Rasgon said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SM8AcE18AN0">CNBC</a> in early October. "This cycle, if the checks are any indication, must potentially be massive," he added.

Wall Street keeps raising price targets for sky-high Nvidia stock. Here's why analysts are still so bullish. 

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs raised its S&amp;P 500 year-end price target to 6,000, implying a 5% gain.</li><li>The increase follows the previous price target raises from 4,700 to 5,200 and then to 5,600.</li></ul>Strategists at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gs-stock">Goldman Sachs</a> raised their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> year-end price target for the third time this year.In a note on Friday, Goldman's David Kostin said he now expects the S&amp;P 500 to finish the year at 6,000, representing the second-highest target among Wall Street strategists.With the S&amp;P 500 trading at around 5,720, Kostin's target implies a potential return of about 5% with just under three months left in the year. The price target increase comes after Kostin and his team set an initial year-end S&amp;P 500 price target of 4,700 late last year. The team then raised their price target to 5,200 in February and once again to 5,600 in June.Kostin also raised the bank's 12-month S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,300 from 6,000."The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "We expect sales will grow by 5%, roughly in line with nominal GDP growth. However, we now expect 78 bp of net margin expansion in 2025, compared with 24 bp previously."Kostin said his assumptions are based on a relatively "steady" macro economic outlook, with US real GDP growing at an average pace of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.At the micro level, Kostin highlighted three reasons he expects higher corporate profits in the year ahead.First, Kostin said idiosyncratic charges and write-downs for a handful of S&amp;P 500 companies weighed on corporate profits in 2024 and should moderate in 2025. Those companies include <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bmy-stock">Bristol-Myers Squibb</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gild-stock">Gilead</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/wbd-stock">Warner Bros. Discovery.</a>Second, Kostin believes a recovery in the semiconductor cycle should boost technology companies' earnings per share in 2025."Shipments of integrated circuits excluding memory chips, a predictor of Semis margins, are roughly 10% below their historical trend. Reversion to trend should lead to margin expansion through 2026," Kostin explained.Finally, mega-cap tech companies should continue to see solid profit growth, in part thanks to AI trends."While the magnitude of beats may moderate, the recent GS Communacopia Conference indicated strong ongoing AI demand that should benefit these stocks," Kostin said.Kostin's price target forecasts assume the S&amp;P 500 continues to trade at a premium valuation of about 22x forward earnings. If that earnings multiple drops, it would threaten Kostin's bullish outlook."If prospects for growth weaken, the S&amp;P 500 could trade at 18x (5400, 6% downside)," Kostin said.

Goldman Sachs bumps its S&P 500 price target for the 3rd time this year as it sees higher corporate profits ahead

New Delhi: India's Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> dropped to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, its lowest in nearly five years, largely driven by a decline in <keyword id="20028256" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable" source="keywords">vegetable</keyword> <keyword id="19900607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prices" source="keywords">prices</keyword>. However, despite this positive development, the <keyword id="19934368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="State-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="State Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="State Bank of India">State Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has cautioned that the path forward may be challenging, according to the SBI research report. The dramatic reduction in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to a mere 6.8 per cent in July, played a crucial role in achieving this multi-year low. The weighted contribution of vegetables to the overall CPI also shrank from 1.77 per cent in June to 0.55 per cent in July, underscoring their impact on the headline inflation figure. Additionally, the prices of fruits and fuel showed signs of moderation, contributing further to easing inflationary pressures. However, this broad-based relief was tempered by a slight uptick in core CPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices. The SBI's latest report highlights that the once-dominant "Follow the Fed" mantra appears to be waning, with an increasing number of central banks prioritizing domestic economic conditions over synchronizing with U.S. rate decisions, signaling a shift in global <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> dynamics. This decline in CPI marks the first time in half a decade that CPI inflation has dipped below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4 per cent, a feat largely attributed to a steep fall in vegetable prices. Core CPI rose from 3.12 per cent in June to 3.30 per cent in July, driven primarily by an increase in mobile tariffs. Notably, the transport and communication segment saw inflation rise sharply from 0.97 per cent in June to 2.48 per cent in July, indicating sector-specific pressures. The moderation in food inflation, which stood at 5.06 per cent year-on-year in July, was significantly influenced by a higher base effect. Despite this, concerns persist over the uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall, particularly in key foodgrain-producing states experiencing deficient precipitation. With La Nina conditions gaining strength, the possibility of excessive rainfall in August and September looms large, raising fears of crop damage that could reignite food price inflation. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures may persist, potentially exceeding the RBI's forecast of 4.5 per cent for FY25. The domestic growth momentum remains robust, with GDP expected to surpass 7 per cent in Q1 FY25. However, geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose risks to the growth outlook. The RBI, maintaining a tight liquidity stance to control inflation, has deferred potential rate cuts to December 2024 or February 2025. State-wise analysis reveals that the majority of states recorded CPI inflation rates below the national average, with only six out of 22 states experiencing higher-than-average inflation. Despite this, significant rural-urban inflation differentials were observed, with most states seeing higher inflation in rural areas compared to urban counterparts. Only four states reported higher urban inflation. Historically, when the U.S. Federal Reserve adjusts its interest rates, global capital flows are impacted, prompting central banks in emerging markets to follow suit. However, while the Fed's recent rate hike cycle (2022-2023) saw a synchronized global response, the current rate-cutting phase is proving to be less coordinated. Central banks in countries like China, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, the UK, Canada, and the European Central Bank have already begun reducing rates, while the Fed is expected to initiate cuts in September 2024. India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 4.2 per cent in June 2024, down from a revised 6.2 per cent in May. The mining sector led the growth with a 10.3 per cent increase, followed by electricity at 8.6 per cent and manufacturing at 2.6 per cent. For the April-June 2024 period, industrial growth stood at 5.2 per cent, compared to 4.7 per cent in the same period the previous year. As India navigates the delicate balance between growth and inflation, the coming months will be critical in shaping the country's economic trajectory, especially with potential global shifts in monetary policy and the evolving monsoon season.

CPI inflation drops to lowest in five years but road ahead could be bumpy: SBI Report

Mumbai, India's real <keyword id="44910" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp-growth" source="Orion">GDP growth</keyword> will moderate to 6.5 per cent in FY25, mainly due to global headwinds, <keyword id="6355975" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="axis-bank" source="Orion">Axis Bank</keyword>'s chief economist <keyword id="926117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="neelkanth-mishra" source="Orion">Neelkanth Mishra</keyword> said on Monday. India's GDP is 7 per cent lower than what it would have been if the pre-pandemic GDP growth trend had continued, Mishra added. It can be noted that last Friday, the Reserve Bank sharply upped its FY24 growth estimate to 7 per cent from the earlier 6.5 per cent. Mishra also pegged the FY24 growth at 7 per cent with upside risks. For FY25, he expects a moderation in the real GDP growth to 6.5 per cent, Mishra said, attributing the same to an intensification of global headwinds in the near future. He said the <keyword id="4644154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="domestic-activity" source="Orion">domestic activity</keyword> is resilient, and the global growth is already proving to be a drag, and added that the same is likely to worsen going ahead. Mishra explained that in the US, the largest economy in the world, the growth is being boosted by fiscal deficit and predicted the long-feared recession to be a reality. "Recession in the US is delayed, not deferred," he said, terming the situation around the fiscal deficit in the US as his biggest concern. The chief economist said he is alarmed by the lack of discussion on this critical aspect, stating that the US fiscal challenges are underappreciated. The US has adopted a pro-cyclical policy stance rather than being the more prudent counter-cyclical one adopted by countries like India, Mishra said. The world has to get used to the "policy inversion" in the US, and the scarcity in dollars, Mishra said, adding that the latter will impact even a country like India. He said while India could easily fund USD 70 billion of a current account deficit, funding even USD 30-40 billion will now get hard. The general elections in India will not lead to much of a change in the policy direction, Mishra said, adding that if he were a corporate, he would decide to start investing soonest because of the demand. He pointed to power generation - coal-based and renewable - as one of the investment areas and added that capital expenditure is already happening in many areas. The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut its repo rate through 2024 on the volatile food inflation, he said, adding that the headline number will cool down in the year. The government is likely to cut the fiscal deficit by 0.70 per cent each in FY25 and FY26 to meet its stated target of getting the number down to 4.5 per cent, he noted. Foreign rating agencies are unlikely to upgrade the country's rating even if the fiscal gap narrows, he said, adding that there is a need for a lowering in the high debt-to-GDP ratio.

GDP growth will moderate to 6.5% in FY25 on global headwinds: Axis Bank

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

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