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Contrary to public perception, the <keyword id="74074" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="antarctic" source="Orion">Antarctic</keyword> <keyword id="1917280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ozone-hole" source="Orion">ozone hole</keyword> has been amongst the largest on record over the past three years, new research has found. The ozone hole above Antarctica has been remarkably massive and long-lived over the past four years and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are not the only things to blame, said researchers in their study published in the journal Nature Communications. CFCs are greenhouse gases containing carbon, <keyword id="169046" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hydrogen" source="Orion">hydrogen</keyword>, <keyword id="21070" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="chlorine" source="Orion">chlorine</keyword> and fluorine and have been studied to contribute to ozone depletion. The ozone layer in the Earth's atmosphere blocks the harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun to protect people from skin diseases. According to the study's lead author Hannah Kessenich, PhD candidate at the University of Otago, New Zealand, the team found much less ozone in the centre of the hole compared to 19 years ago. "This means that the hole is not only larger in area, but also deeper throughout most of spring," said Kessenich. The team analysed the monthly and daily ozone changes, at different altitudes and latitudes within the Antarctic ozone hole, from 2004 to 2022. "We made connections between this drop in ozone and changes in the air that is arriving into the polar vortex above Antarctica. This reveals the recent, large ozone holes may not be caused just by CFCs," said Kessenich. The researchers believe that there are complex factors contributing to the ozone hole, even as the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer regulates the production and consumption of man-made chemicals known to deplete the ozone. Therefore, they are raising concerns about how major communications about the ozone layer over the last few years have given the public the impression that the 'ozone issue' has been solved. "While the Montreal Protocol has vastly improved our situation with CFCs destroying ozone, the hole has been amongst the largest on record over the past three years, and in two of the five years prior to that. "Our analysis ended with data from 2022, but as of today the 2023 ozone hole has already surpassed the size of the three years prior - late last month it was over 26 million square kilometres, nearly twice the area of Antarctica," said Kessenich. The researchers said that understanding ozone variability is important because of the major role it plays in the Southern Hemisphere's climate. "We all know about the recent wildfires and cyclones in Australia and New Zealand and the Antarctic ozone hole is part of this picture. "While separate from the impact of greenhouse gases on climate, the ozone hole interacts with the delicate balance in the atmosphere. Because ozone usually absorbs UV light, a hole in the ozone layer can not only cause extreme UV levels on the surface of Antarctica, but it can also drastically impact where heat is stored in the atmosphere," said Kessenich.

Ozone hole largest on record over past 3 years, new research finds

In 2015, the <keyword id="20104670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="paris-agreement" source="keywords">Paris Agreement</keyword> set an ambitious benchmark: implementing enough climate action to keep <keyword id="6366055" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-warming" source="Orion">global warming</keyword> to a maximum of 1.5°C above the normal temperatures observed between 1850-1900. This was the first limit set by the Paris Agreement, and some even believed that collective action from all the countries could make it possible! Last month, for the first time in recorded history, <keyword id="19912640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earth" source="keywords">Earth</keyword> endured the 12th consecutive month with temperatures 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial era, shattering the hopes of those few extreme climate optimists. The Copernicus' <keyword id="6361617" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change" source="Orion">Climate Change</keyword> Service's (C3S) January 2024 report confirmed this alarming trend, putting into a numerical perspective a year marred thoroughly by a super El Niño, devastating droughts, scorching temperatures, and deadly wildfires. Among the long and lamentable list of records, the report notes that the global mean temperatures from February 2023 to January 2024 have averaged about 1.52°C above the pre-industrial average. This is the highest this mercury has consistently soared in recorded history. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Breaking the threshold!" comment="subhead" text="Breaking the threshold!">Breaking the threshold!</cmsannotation> If you've somehow managed to keep yourself from the onslaught of climate news coverage in recent times, here's a refresher on our temperature "targets". The <keyword id="20555622" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="united-nations-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change" source="keywords">United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</keyword> (IPCC) has projected repeatedly that the catastrophic (and potentially irreversible) consequences of climate change and extreme weather would materialise as we start breaching the 1.5°C threshold. So far, all recent studies indicate that we are, quite unfortunately, on track to blaze past this point in this decade itself. While the world collectively breached 1.5°C for over half of the days in 2023, there was some consolation in knowing that this threshold-crossing trend has to be sustained for a few successive years before any mighty conclusions can be drawn. However, C3S's latest report just puts into perspective how little breathing room we actually have left. The record-breaking warming is attributed to a combination of factors, including the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon and, of course, rising greenhouse gas emissions. While the El Niño is expected to weaken, scientists warn that we're "very, very close to a longer-term breach" of the 1.5°C threshold. The latest UN considerations reckon that we will begin to consistently cross 1.5°C sometime in the late 2020s or early 2030s. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="The month of records" comment="subhead" text="The month of records">The month of records</cmsannotation> Further, January 2024 was a distinct outlier among the warmest of months in recorded history! It shattered several other records too, by becoming the eighth month in a row that was the warmest on record for the respective month of the year with a massive 1.66°C hotter compared to the pre-industrial average. January 2024 dethroned January 2020 by a margin of 0.12°C for the title of warmest ever January. Beyond land, the above-average heat had a significant impact on the glaciers littering our cold seas as well. While Arctic and Greenland sea ice extents remained slightly high in January, conditions were less than dainty for <keyword id="19945467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="antarctica" source="keywords">Antarctica</keyword>. The report states that the Antarctic sea ice extent was 18% less than the average for this month, making it the sixth lowest it has ever been. However, conditions have improved since last year, when Antarctic sea ice was 31% below average. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Devastating projections" comment="subhead" text="Devastating projections">Devastating projections</cmsannotation> The stark reality is that even rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to prevent further warming and its devastating impacts. However, in practice or on paper, countries aren't doing nearly enough. According to the UN's latest Emission Gap report, current pledges will warm the world by 2.5-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels. If we want to avoid 1.5°C, we need to cut emission levels by a massive 66% of what was observed last year. This warming carries significant consequences. Experts warn of potential extinctions, crop failures, and irreversible tipping points in the climate system, like the loss of coral reefs and accelerated sea level rise. The <keyword id="19904608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="amazon" source="keywords">Amazon</keyword> rainforest, already facing <keyword id="46472" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="drought" source="Orion">drought</keyword>, could be pushed towards a dangerous tipping point, transforming into a savannah-like ecosystem, scientists worry. The most vulnerable populations are already suffering at the hands of extreme weather variables. The monsoon, India's lifeblood, is becoming increasingly erratic due to climate change. In 2023, heavy monsoon rains caused devastating floods in Assam, displacing millions and leaving a trail of destruction. Conversely, parts of Maharashtra faced severe droughts, impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. This unpredictability threatens food security for millions who rely on rain-fed agriculture. Even heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with devastating consequences. And similar stories unfold across vulnerable regions like island nations facing rising sea levels and African countries grappling with intensified droughts and floods. These regions often lack the infrastructure, resources, and technology to adapt to these changes, making them even more susceptible. Read a summary of the report <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-world-experienced-warmest-january-record" data-type="tilCustomLink">here</a>.

Why is everyone concerned about the Earth being 1.5°C warmer for 12 months in a row?

<ul><li>Global sea levels may rise by 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a new study published in Climate Dynamics. </li><li>Scientists claim that accounting for internal climate variability displaces conventional model estimates that only use a mean temperature.</li><li>As a result, simulations may have underestimated the retreat of the <keyword id="935179" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Antarctic-ice-sheet">Antarctic ice sheet</keyword> by up to 20 years. </li></ul>The fact that the polar ice sheets are melting as the planet gets warmers is no secret. However, scientists predict that the effects may be much worse than initially estimated. In addition to the overall effects of <keyword id="6361617" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-change">climate change</keyword>, ice cover will also be affected by internal climate variability, which conventional prediction models don’t consider. Accounting for climate variability, the global sea level may rise by another 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a <a href="https://news.psu.edu/story/634507/2020/10/08/research/ice-melt-projections-may-underestimate-antarctic-contribution-sea">new study</a>. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; width: 468pt; table-layout: fixed;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Factor </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rise in sea level </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">With climate variability </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">13.3 to 19.2 inches </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Without climate variability </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">10.6 to 14.9 inches </td></tr></tbody></table> The study found that model simulation that did not include the effects of internal climate variability significantly delayed the ice sheet's retreat by up to 20 years and underestimated future sea-level rise. It may not seem like much, but further increase in sea levels will only add to the destruction displayed by natural calamities. "Every bit adds on to the storm surge, which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating," said <a href="https://news.psu.edu/story/634507/2020/10/08/research/ice-melt-projections-may-underestimate-antarctic-contribution-sea">Chris Forest</a>, co-author of the paper published in Climate Dynamics. What is climate variability? Most research around climate change uses a mean temperature by averaging the results of climate models. The process smoothens the peaks caused by climate variability and reduces the average number of days above temperature thresholds. This creates a bias. "If we're just running with average conditions, we're not seeing these extremes (climate variability) happening on yearly or decadal timescales," explained Forest. When one includes variability, the results accommodate for more warm days and more sunshine. On those days, the ice will melt further, with the temperatures being above the mean threshold. The scientists also found that while atmospheric variations had a more considerable and more immediate impact on the ice sheet — ocean variability was also a significant factor. "It's important to better understand these processes contributing to the additional ice loss because the ice sheets are melting much faster than we expected," said Forest. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/space/news/nasa-cases-asteroid-bennu-ahead-of-snatch-and-grab-finds-six-new-secrets-including-a-possible-void-under-the-surface/slidelist/78577408.cms">NASA cases Asteroid Bennu ahead of snatch and grab — finds six new secrets, including a possible void under the surface</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/rbi-governor-wants-markets-to-keep-the-faith-but-traders-want-something-more/articleshow/78574663.cms">RBI Governor wants markets to keep the faith but traders want something more</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-beats-accenture-to-become-the-worlds-most-valuable-it-services-company/articleshow/78566487.cms">TCS beats Accenture to become the world’s most valuable IT services company — but this not the first time it has raced ahead</a>

Antarctic ice may melt 20 years sooner than estimated — global sea levels likely to rise by an additional three inches by 2100

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/antarctic-flowering-plant-growth-signals-climate-crisis-impact-study-2022-2">Antarctica</a> and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ancient-arctic-sea-sponges-survive-by-eating-worm-fossils-2022-2">Arctic</a> suffered <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/4-ways-extreme-heat-negatively-impacts-economy-2021-8">heat waves</a> in the past week, reaching 70 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.</li><li>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/antarctica-thwaites-glacier-ice-shelf-will-shatter-scientists-say-2021-12">poles</a> are in opposite seasons, but atmospheric rivers carried moisture and warm air to them.</li></ul>Heat waves blanketed the planet's poles in unseasonably warm temperatures over the past week.In parts of the <keyword id="11905238" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="arctic" source="Orion">Arctic</keyword>, temperatures soared to about 50 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) above average on Friday, according to <a href="https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-colorado-arctic-antarctica-eda9ea8704108bdab2480fa2cd4b6e34?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&amp;utm_campaign=9faf4287e9-briefing-dy-20220321&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-9faf4287e9-45928806">The Associated Press</a>. The same day, on the other end of the planet, <keyword id="12266096" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="antarctica" source="Orion">Antarctica</keyword>'s Dome C research station registered a record <keyword id="11930978" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="temperature" source="Orion">temperature</keyword> of 13.8 degrees, about 70 degrees above average. Vostok station, sitting 2 miles high on the Antarctic plateau, registered a similarly extreme temperature of 0.1 degrees.As of Tuesday, the Antarctic <keyword id="11947988" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="heat-wave" source="Orion">heat wave</keyword> was subsiding, but temperatures remained about 50 degrees above normal, according to Robert Rodhe, lead scientist at the environmental data nonprofit Berkeley Earth."This event is rewriting record books and our expectations about what is possible in Antarctica," Rodhe <a href="https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1505867257104187403">said</a> on Twitter. "Is this simply a freakishly improbable event, or is it a sign of more to come? Right now, no one knows."<div type="image" title="two penguins stand on melting iceberg on rocky shelf" height="1648" width="2199" msid="90404839" hostid="261"></div>The poles are in opposite seasons — it's fall in Antarctica, just starting to chill, while the Arctic is emerging from the dark depths of winter. But the mechanisms driving their respective heat records are the same. Atmospheric rivers — long, flowing columns of water vapor, like rivers in the sky — carried large amounts of moisture and warm air to both poles, causing the double-whammy polar heat wave. In Antarctica, a high-pressure system called a "heat dome" also moved in and sat over the eastern side of the continent, trapping heat and moisture there, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/03/18/antarctica-heat-wave-climate-change/?utm_campaign=Daily%20Briefing&amp;utm_content=20220321&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=Revue%20newsletter">The Washington Post</a>."Are these two heat waves linked? We don't know yet, and it's most likely a coincidence," Antarctica researchers Dana Bergstrom, Sharon Robinson, and Simon Alexander <a href="https://theconversation.com/record-smashing-heatwaves-are-hitting-antarctica-and-the-arctic-simultaneously-heres-whats-driving-them-and-how-theyll-impact-wildlife-179659">wrote</a> in The Conversation on Tuesday.Still, they added: "Modeling suggests large-scale climate patterns are [becoming] more variable. This means this seemingly one-off heat wave may be a harbinger for the future under <keyword id="11896311" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="climate-change" source="Orion">climate change</keyword>."<h2>The poles are warming faster than the rest of the planet</h2><div type="image" title="penguin stands on iceberg in ocean" height="1666" width="2222" msid="90404841" hostid="261"></div>While scientists can't directly attribute these warming events to climate change, it's possible that later studies will allow them to do so. Just a week after a record heat wave killed hundreds of people across the Pacific Northwest last June, World Weather Attribution published a <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/NW-US-extreme-heat-2021-scientific-report-WWA.pdf">study</a> that concluded the event would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change.Global temperatures are rising as humans add more heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, and the poles are warming faster than the rest of the planet.Periods of warmth during the winter are a natural part of the Arctic climate, but <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2605/arctic-winter-warming-events-becoming-more-frequent-longer-lasting/">research</a> shows they're happening more frequently and lasting longer as the planet warms. In Antarctica, a lack of historical records makes it difficult to contextualize this weather.<div type="image" title="water drips from iceberg" height="1651" width="2201" msid="90404843" hostid="261"></div>"The first of the precise temperature records start in the late 1950s, so it's really hard to work out what's remarkable and what's not," Matt King, director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic <keyword id="11896083" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="science" source="Orion">Science</keyword>, told <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/21/extremes-of-40c-above-normal-whats-causing-extraordinary-heating-in-polar-regions">The Guardian</a>. "Sometime down the track, depending on what we do with our carbon emissions, we might see these types of temperatures much more regularly."Alongside the heat wave, and possibly because of it, Arctic <keyword id="13451070" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sea-ice" source="Orion">sea ice</keyword> coverage dropped suddenly this month, according to data from the <a href="https://cryo.met.no/en/sea-ice-index-sval">Norwegian Meteorological Institute</a>.At the other pole, even before the heat wave, Antarctica was at its lowest sea ice coverage since records began, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/antarctic-sea-ice-falls-to-lowest-level-since-measurements-began-in-1979">The Guardian</a> reported in February.

Bizarre heat waves strike Arctic and Antarctic poles, raising them 50 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit above normal

The Tongan volcanic <keyword id="141991" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="eruption" source="Orion">eruption</keyword> of 2022 caused large, rapid <keyword id="6757306" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="depletion" source="Orion">depletion</keyword> of ozone by injecting huge amounts of <keyword id="1259317" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-vapour" source="Orion">water vapour</keyword> into the stratosphere, a new research in the journal Science said. The eruption notably injected an unprecedented amount of water vapour - about 10 per cent of the total global mean stratospheric burden - to very high altitudes of up to 55 kilometres, an international team of researchers from the US and Europe said in their study. In just the one week following the eruption, the stratospheric ozone above the tropical southwestern Pacific and Indian Ocean region decreased by five per cent. The Antarctic ozone hole depletes up to 60 per cent of ozone from September to November, they said. This depletion of tropical ozone exceeds that of previous eruptions, underscoring the exceptional nature of the eruption of the submerged Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on January 15, 2022, they said. They combined balloon measurements taken near the Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, zenith sky observations and satellite data to capture the early evolution of the volcanic plume's impact on ozone, which protects life on the Earth by absorbing harmful and skin-damaging ultraviolet radiations from the Sun. The scientists say the enhanced water vapour content (humidity) in the stratosphere led to a series of interactions between other components shot out from the volcano, including aerosols, that ultimately broke down ozone over the tropical south-western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. "Usually, there are roughly four million water molecules per million in the stratosphere, and the volcanic plume contained up to 300, causing substantial impacts on atmospheric chemistry, increased ozone loss, both due to gas-phase chemistry and in association with the enhanced volcanic aerosol. "As a result, some highly unusual ozone depletion happened in the tropics in the aftermath of the eruption, especially given the generally small variability of ozone in that part of the world. "As a result of these observations, the scientific community has been expecting some unusual polar ozone depletion to happen after the volcanic material reached the Antarctic. "It did not affect the 2022 ozone hole season because the material did not make it to the pole in time. The 2023 ozone hole season, contrary to expectations, has not been unusual. The reasons for Nature not playing ball I'm sure will be explored," said Olaf Morgenstern, principal scientist - Atmosphere and Climate, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), New Zealand, who was not involved in the study. The NIWA was part of a research published in Science journal earlier this year, which found the Tongan eruption recorded the fastest underwater flows of volcanic material ever.

You Searched For "antarctic climate variability" and got 5 results

Ozone hole largest on record over past 3 years, new research finds

PTI

Why is everyone concerned about the Earth being 1.5°C warmer for 12 months in a row?

Ankush Banerjee

Antarctic ice may melt 20 years sooner than estimated — global sea levels likely to rise by an additional three inches by 2100

BI India Bureau

Bizarre heat waves strike Arctic and Antarctic poles, raising them 50 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit above normal

Morgan McFall-Johnsen

Tonga volcanic eruption of 2022 depleted huge amounts of ozone rapidly, research finds

PTI

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