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<ul class="summary-list"><li>It's "too soon" for the US to cut boosted <keyword id="11898807" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-benefits" source="Orion">unemployment benefits</keyword>, the <keyword id="11956512" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="brookings-institute" source="Orion">Brookings Institute</keyword> said Wednesday.</li><li>The aid is set to lapse for 7.5 million Americans early next month, and Congress is unlikely to extend it.</li><li>The think tank says letting it expire would widen inequality and slow the recovery without fixing the safety net.</li></ul>Letting federal unemployment benefits expire in September will do far more harm to the US than good, the <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/08/18/millions-of-workers-will-lose-their-safety-net-this-labor-day-if-congress-doesnt-act/">Brookings Institute</a> said Wednesday.Critical support for some 7.5 million unemployed Americans currently hangs in the balance, according to estimates from the left-leaning <a href="https://tcf.org/content/report/7-5-million-workers-face-devastating-unemployment-benefits-cliff-labor-day/?session=1">Century Foundation</a>. A handful of federal programs that boost <keyword id="11894906" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-insurance" source="Orion">unemployment insurance</keyword> are set to expire on September 6, cutting off aid that's been in place since the CARES Act was approved in March 2020.President Joe Biden has already punted the issue to Congress, and lawmakers are unlikely to renew the programs over the next two weeks. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-progressives-renew-federal-unemployment-benefits-biden-spending-plan-2021-8">told Insider's Joseph Zeballos-Roig</a> this week that progressives are "looking into" an extension, but she said it won't happen before Labor Day and the Senate and White House seem reluctant to extend.Letting it lapse is a mistake, and its consequences will ripple throughout the <keyword id="11893570" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy" source="Orion">economy</keyword>, <keyword id="11956513" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="annelies-goger" source="Orion">Annelies Goger</keyword>, a fellow at <keyword id="11956511" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="brookings" source="Orion">Brookings</keyword>' Metropolitan Policy Program, wrote. It's "too soon" for the federal programs to lapse, and arguments in support of a September expiration are short-sighted, she added.She laid out three reasons why, in her words, it's just too soon to end it.<h2>1. It just isn't the reason for the labor shortage</h2>Geiger dismissed the criticism that the <keyword id="11932127" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ui" source="Orion">UI</keyword> boost exacerbated the nationwide labor shortage.There is simply "little evidence that higher pandemic UI benefits have been a major source of employers' problems in finding workers, or that those difficulties are widespread," she wrote. Likewise, she said little evidence supports the argument that cutting it early increased employment.Conservative lawmakers have railed against the aid for months, saying it disincentivized Americans from taking jobs and fueled lackluster hiring in the spring. The argument also led 26 states - all but one led by Republican governors - to prematurely cut the federal supplement.The move was marketed as a way to push Americans into the workforce, but recent data suggests it had negative effects. Researchers found the cutoff <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ending-unemployment-benefits-early-cost-states-2-billion-in-spending-2021-8">led to a 20% drop in individuals' spending</a>, and total spending dropped by $2 billion in states ending the benefit early. At the same time, just 4.4% more workers in early-out states had jobs compared to peers in states keeping the boost intact.<h2>2. The safety net isn't fixed yet</h2>Letting the benefit expire in September would also leave several problems with the UI program unfixed, according to Goger. Each state runs its own UI system, leaving the safety net "riddled with inequities, cumbersome processes, and outdated technologies."For one, several kinds of workers were left out from traditional UI. Domestic and agricultural workers weren't able to benefit, and gig workers have only been included as a pandemic-era exception. The programs also exclude people who just started paid employment, reduced their work hours, or faced disruptions that cut into their ability to work, Goger said.Differences between states' programs also harm workers, hurting racial minorities and the long-term unemployed the most. The country's poorest are frequently trapped in joblessness without adequate support, Goger said.Reverting to pre-pandemic UI systems next month would doom the programs to suffer the same problems they've had for decades, Goger said, while replacing the state programs with a single federal system could allow for more equitable and efficient unemployment insurance.<h2>(3) It will make inequality worse and hurt the economy</h2>Doing nothing on UI would also worsen inequities throughout the economy, she added.The benefit helped some of the hardest-hit Americans stay afloat, but most are still far from fully recovered. The labor shortage suggests swaths of workers are changing careers, and removing the UI safety net amid that shakeup could throw millions into economic disarray. Keeping the program intact would ensure those transitions can safely take place, especially when the Delta wave <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economic-recovery-hit-peak-delta-variant-cases-economic-data-2021-8">is slowing the pace of recovery</a>, Goger said.She wrote that the "broader ecosystems of safety net programs, services, data, and prevention strategies are critical infrastructure for a well-functioning, more inclusive economy," and that ought to be the point of unemployment insurance. The job is unfinished.

3 reasons it's 'too soon' to cut off expanded unemployment, according to Brookings

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11896550" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="us-jobless-claims" source="Orion">US jobless claims</keyword> jumped to 353,000 last week, just above pandemic lows but the first increase in five weeks.</li><li>Economists had expected claims to rise slightly to 350,000. </li><li>Continuing claims fell to 2.86 million, but fell short of the 2.76 million claims estimate.</li></ul>Filings for <keyword id="11894906" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-insurance" source="Orion">unemployment insurance</keyword> jumped from pandemic-era lows last week as the country crept closer to the expiration of federal UI aid.Weekly <keyword id="11894903" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="jobless-claims" source="Orion">jobless claims</keyword> reached an unadjusted 353,000 last week, the Labor Department announced Thursday morning. That compares to a median estimate of 350,000 claims from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.The print interrupts four straight weeks of declines. The previous week's count was revised to 349,000 from 348,000 and still marks the lowest reading since the pandemic drove claims higher.Continuing claims, which count Americans actively receiving <keyword id="11898807" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment-benefits" source="Orion">unemployment benefits</keyword>, fell to 2.86 million for the week that ended August 14. That missed the median estimate of 2.76 million claims. Continuing claims set a pandemic low that week and have generally declined more consistently than weekly claims.While claims sit far lower than they did just months ago, they remain nearly twice their pre-pandemic levels. Weekly counts have been among the most closely watched indicators of the labor market's recovery, despite their volatile nature.The latest reading also comes mere weeks before the federal boost to UI lapses. A handful of programs created by Congress have augmented weekly benefits payouts since the pandemic began early last year, but they're set to expire in September. The Biden administration reiterated earlier this month it would let the programs expire, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-unlikely-to-extend-federal-unemployment-benefits-2021-8">Democrats are unlikely to extend the benefit further</a>.Twenty-six states announced plans to prematurely slash the benefit, with many arguing the move would push more jobless Americans into the workforce.Yet a new study suggests the early cuts <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ending-unemployment-benefits-early-cost-states-2-billion-in-spending-2021-8">did more harm than good</a>. Researchers at University of Massachusetts Amherst, Harvard University, Columbia University, and University of Toronto found the reduction of benefits drove a 20% drop in recipients' weekly spending and did little to improve hiring, with only 4.4% more workers in early-out states taking jobs compared to peers in states that kept benefits."Clearly, if it had been the case that more people losing benefits were easily able to transition into paid work, you wouldn't see that sort of reduction and sharp reduction in spending, but that's what you saw," Arindrajit Dube, an economics professor at UMass Amherst and of the paper's authors, told Insider's Juliana Kaplan.The Brookings Institute joined some Democrats and millions of unemployed Americans on Wednesday in arguing for an extention of the federal support. There is little evidence the boosted benefits are behind the labor shortage, Annelies Goger, a fellow at Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program, said in a <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2021/08/18/millions-of-workers-will-lose-their-safety-net-this-labor-day-if-congress-doesnt-act/">report</a>. The premature cutoff also stands to worsen economic inequality at a time when the recession's fallout is already extremely uneven, she added."This return to 'normalcy' will penalize many of the workers who the pandemic impacted most severely," Goger said.

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3 reasons it's 'too soon' to cut off expanded unemployment, according to Brookings

Ben Winck

US jobless claims climb for first time in 5 weeks, to 353,000

Ben Winck,Andy Kiersz

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