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<ul class="summary-list"><li>US crude production hit a new all-time monthly high in August.</li><li>This complicates things for OPEC+, which was planning to start increasing output in December.</li></ul><p>The US is pumping a record amount of oil. But that may not be welcome news to other crude-producing nations.</p><p>Domestic output reached <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/">13.4 million barrels a day in August,</a> eclipsing all previous monthly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=mcrfpus1&amp;f=m">records</a>. According to US Energy Information Administration data, firms in Texas and New Mexico led the surge.</p><p>That level of production puts the US at odds with the plans of other oil-producing nations. OPEC+, an alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has said it plans to begin in December a sequence of monthly output increases. But given the decline in the price of crude oil — down 20% from an April high — continued record production from the US, and weakening demand, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/oil-traders-split-on-whether-opec-will-hike-supply-in-december">oil traders believe OPEC+ will delay its program</a> for a second time.</p><p>It's the culmination of a multi-year period that saw OPEC+ members cut production to support higher market prices, only to be undercut by expanding production from non-OPEC exporters.</p><p>Looking into 2025, analysts speculate that global demand will continue sliding, especially given <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iea.org/commentaries/china-s-slowdown-is-weighing-on-the-outlook-for-global-oil-demand-growth">China's decelerating oil consumption</a>. That's one reason the global oil surplus could swell to 1.2 million barrels per day next year, according to JPMorgan. Otherwise, expanding outflows from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will also play a part.</p><p>"OPEC+ increasingly appears to be searching for El Dorado: an oil market where demand is strong enough that it can increase output and prices stay above $80 per barrel," wrote Bill Weatherburn, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. "We suspect that this won't be found in 2025 either as China's demand growth will remain soft and more oil supply from non-OPEC+ producers will enter the market."</p>

The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for other crude-exporting countries

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prediction markets made a splash during 2024 Presidential election.</li><li>The presidential race is over but Millions of dollars are still being bet on political outcomes.</li></ul><p><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"><u>Billions of dollars were bet</u></a> on the presidential election outcome via prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket this year.</p><p>It was a new phenomenon in election cycles, with Kalshi receiving court approval in early October to launch election-based betting contracts for US citizens.</p><p>With the election over, money is now flowing into other bets on the platforms, from everything from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11">Rotten Tomato movie scores</a> to the winner of sporting events like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-live-sports-boxing-jake-paul-mike-tyson-fight-2024-3">Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight.</a></p><p>But politics is also still a popular topic for betting, with Kalshi and Polymarket seeing wagers on everything from President-elect Donald Trump's potential cabinet picks to the presidential nominees in 2028.</p><p>Here are some political bets to watch on Kalshi and Polymarket now that the presidential election is over.</p><h2 id="ec71c3df-6744-402c-9d9d-b9a1b3207312">Who will be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?</h2><div type="image" title="Gavin Newsom" height="5504" width="8110" msid="115363838" hostid="261" sizebytes="773122"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Gavin Newsom (16¢), Josh Shapiro (15¢), Gretchen Whitmer (11¢), Pete Buttigieg (9¢), Andy Beshear (8¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $145,714</p><h2 id="a216f7ba-5892-4201-a86e-58da783852a7">Who will be the Republican nominee in 2028?</h2><div type="image" title="JD Vance speaks at a rally." height="1500" width="2219" msid="115363836" hostid="261" sizebytes="114460"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> JD Vance (52¢), Vivek Ramaswamy (8¢), Ron DeSantis (6¢), Donald Trump Jr. (6¢), Marco Rubio (6¢), Donald Trump (2¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $110,497</p><h2 id="af940385-6f7a-4953-9664-aca600d8116b">Who will be part of Trump's Administration?</h2><div type="image" title="RFK Jr." height="683" width="1024" msid="115363823" hostid="261" sizebytes="19830"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Elon Musk (14¢), RFK Jr. (91¢), Vivek Ramaswamy (19¢), Steve Bannon (10¢), Jared Kushner (13¢), Ben Carson (80¢), Ken Paxton (27¢), Betsy DeVos (13¢), Ivanka Trump (5¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $2.0 million</p><h2 id="703f77e5-bf26-4d52-8c17-7bf0c652228f">Trump ends Ukraine war in his first 90 days?</h2><div type="image" title="Servicemen of Ukraine's 24th Mechanized Brigade at a training field in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on November 6, 2024." height="4000" width="6000" msid="115363832" hostid="261" sizebytes="947204"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Yes (47¢), No (54¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume: </strong>$2.9 million</p><h2 id="c026a35e-f6a0-45d9-a5a2-c3b839ae25d9">Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?</h2><div type="image" title="Matt Gaetz" height="1335" width="2000" msid="115363828" hostid="261" sizebytes="153548"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Yes (30¢), No (72¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $509,219</p><h2 id="bc4e88a2-a0a0-4582-8638-cb9c8ec5a03d">Who will be Trump's Press Secretary?</h2><div type="image" title="Karoline Leavitt" height="3930" width="6131" msid="115363839" hostid="261" sizebytes="4784032"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Karoline Leavitt (66¢), Scott Jennings (17¢), Tucker Carlson (5¢), Alina Habba (5¢), Kari Lake (5¢), Peter Doocy (4¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $313,753</p><h2 id="8e1ac556-7691-474e-9516-f8fcbc1ee8d7">Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve?</h2><div type="image" title="Donald Trump" height="2040" width="3058" msid="115363834" hostid="261" sizebytes="175104"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Yes (32¢), No (69¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $285,843</p><h2 id="87974748-2f3c-41af-bec0-2902a4b9638a">Trump ends Gaza war by first 100 days?</h2><div type="image" title="A crowd of students hold banners and signs during demonstrations over the war in Gaza" height="3797" width="5695" msid="115363827" hostid="261" sizebytes="984894"></div><p><strong>Current odds: </strong>Yes (47¢), No (54¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $267,997</p>

The election is over, but bettors are still wagering on these 8 political predictions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest in moving to Canada has spiked among Americans after the election.</li><li>Beyond the physical move, there are financial considerations that potential movers should know of.</li></ul><p>The result of the 2024 elections left about half of the US displeased. As Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House, many Americans began considering a move up north, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">Google search traffic</a> at least.</p><p>Interest in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/we-moved-to-canada-not-perfect-but-prefer-over-us-2024-11">moving to Canada</a> tends to spike after big political events such as the <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2016-11-01%202016-11-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">2016 election</a> and the <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2022-06-01%202022-06-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">overturning of the Roe v. Wade</a> Supreme Court ruling.</p><p>This phenomenon doesn't just live on the internet, either — some US residents are seriously considering the move.</p><p>"Even when Trump was elected last time, a lot of people felt that they weren't as comfortable staying in the States, and so we actually did see an influx of people moving to Canada," said Tiffany Woodfield, a senior financial advisor at SWAN Wealth Management of Raymond James.</p><p>Moving, especially across borders, is a big decision and shouldn't be taken lightly. While the physical act of moving is complicated enough, Woodfield points out that there are a lot of financial considerations to be aware of.</p><p>"I think sometimes it can be a knee-jerk reaction," Woodfield said of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/we-moved-to-canada-not-perfect-but-prefer-over-us-2024-11">moving to Canada</a>. "If they don't plan ahead of time, they can fall into traps that end up costing them money."</p><h2 id="c4feab40-7084-4563-951b-72a890ad2b58"><strong>You need to file US and Canadian taxes</strong></h2><p>US citizens residing in Canada might not realize that even on the other side of the border, they're still not free from their tax obligations to Uncle Sam.</p><p>If you are a US citizen, you still need to file federal US taxes and report your worldwide income to the IRS no matter where you live. In Canada, taxes are based on your residency status, so if you spend more than 183 days of the year living in Canada, you owe the Canadian government taxes.</p><p>To prevent ex-pats from getting taxed twice on their income, the US and Canada have a tax treaty that provides a foreign income tax credit for any income tax paid to the other country, Woodfield explained. That means you can offset your US tax liability with taxes already paid to Canada, but you still need to file two separate tax returns — one to Canada and one to the US — to receive a tax credit.</p><p>Additionally, the promise of free healthcare in Canada might sound enticing, but that does come at the cost of higher taxes, so be aware that your Canadian tax bill will probably be higher than what you paid in the US. You also don't have the option to file joint income tax returns with your spouse in Canada, Woodfield warned.</p><h2 id="7d31b42f-84db-43c3-b2f8-4f871c9958bf"><strong>Some Canadian investments have complicated tax implications</strong></h2><p>"As a US person living in Canada, you don't want to invest in Canadian mutual funds or Canadian ETFs," Woodfield said. That's because these investments are considered Passive Foreign Income Corporations (PFIC) by the US government.</p><p>PFICs are subject to unfavorable tax treatment from the IRS. The associated tax forms are lengthy and complicated, and you may end up paying high tax rates. If you're still a US citizen, investing in a Canadian mutual fund or ETF simply isn't worth the hassle.</p><h2 id="0333acc5-88aa-436b-bf74-7cb1b79b71b0"><strong>Bringing your retirement plan over the border can be tricky.</strong></h2><p>401(k)s are a popular way to save for retirement here in the US, but Canadian employers offer a different type of retirement plan: the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).</p><p>Once you move to Canada, you won't be able to actively manage the holdings in your 401(k), according to Woodfield. One workaround is to roll your 401(k) to an IRA and have it managed in Canada. US citizens should also be aware that, in most cases, they won't be able to contribute to their IRA once they move to Canada.</p><p>Another option is to transfer your US retirement account into an RRSP. However, if you choose this step, make sure you're committed to moving to Canada permanently, as you cannot move RRSPs to IRAs, Woodfield said.</p><p>You may not be able to bring your brokerage accounts over the border, either. Some people don't realize this until they update their address with their US brokerage account after moving and receive a letter informing them that they have to close out their account.</p><h2 id="2d468c1f-efc0-45a8-9a7c-53c03c550ff1"><strong>You'll need a new financial advisor…and a lot of time</strong></h2><p>US financial advisors are prohibited by law from providing Canadian residents with financial advice, as they aren't licensed in Canada. If you want expert advice, you need to work with a dual Canada / US licensed advisor.</p><p>The earlier you start preparing for your cross-border move, the better — ideally, one to two tax years before moving, Woodfield said. That way, you can plan certain taxable events ahead of time and realize the greatest amount of savings, such as liquidating mutual funds. It's also easier to sell your home while you're still in the US, Woodfield said.</p><p>If you've already begun the moving process or you're already in Canada, don't panic. Woodfield has worked with plenty of people after they've already moved, but the more time you give yourself, the better.</p><p>Moving across the border is no simple feat, so make sure you're confident about your choice.</p><p>"I've had clients that have moved, and then after the fact, they think, 'Oh, I shouldn't have done this,'" Woodfield said."It's very hard to go back, so people need to be aware of that."</p>

Americans moving to Canada should be aware of these 4 tax and investment implications

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The oil market could see a surplus of one million barrels of crude a day in 2025, the IEA forecast.</li><li>The excess will be driven by low demand in China and booming output from non-OPEC countries.</li></ul><p>The oil market could see a major supply glut in 2025 thanks to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">booming production</a> from non-OPEC states like the US and sagging demand in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a>, according to the International Energy Agency.</p><p>The IEA said in its November Oil Market Report that the world's oil market is on track for a one-million barrel-a-day surplus next year.</p><p>The excess is largely being driven by a weakening economy in China. Demand for oil in the world's second-largest economy contracted for six straight months in a row as of September, IEA data shows. This accounted for the "main drag" on demand this year, the report said.</p><p>Meanwhile, the agency is predicting strong oil production among non-OPEC producers led by countries like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">US</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-brazil-guyana-record-american-opec-market-share-saudi-2023-12">Guyana</a>, Argentina, and Brazil.</p><p>Altogether, non-OPEC producers are on track to expand oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day, it estimated. That amount is more than the agency's forecast for world oil consumption to grow by 990,000 barrels a day next year.</p><p>OPEC+, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia, has also said it will unwind its 2.2 million barrel-a-day <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/crude-oil-outlook-opec-production-markets-saudi-arabia-russia-economy-2023-12">production cuts</a>, which have put pressure on supply over the past few years. The group could start lifting its production quota as soon as January, per its latest announcement. </p><p>"Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 mb/d next year. With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East," the IEA added.</p><p>The US has become the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">largest oil producer</a> in the world, pumping out more crude than any other country in history for the last six years in a row, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Domestic production hit a record 13.4 million barrels a day in August, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.</p>

China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a surplus of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>EV stocks fell on Wednesday after a report said President-elect Trump plans to cut EV tax credits.</li><li>The $7,500 tax credit was part of Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, put into place in 2022.</li></ul><p>Electric vehicle stocks dropped on Wednesday after a report said President-elect Donald Trump's transition team is looking at doing away with the EV tax credit. </p><p>According to a report from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trumps-transition-team-aims-kill-biden-ev-tax-credit-2024-11-14/">Reuters</a>, Trump's transition team has drawn up plans to end the $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicle sales as part of broader tax reform legislation.</p><p><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> stock dropped 5% to $312.20 a share following the report. Shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/rivn-stock">Rivian</a> plunged 12% to $10.57, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/lcid-stock">Lucid</a> dropped 3% to $2.11 a share.</p><p>Ending the tax credit—a key measure included in Biden's 2022 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/house-passes-inflation-reduction-act-sending-it-to-biden-2022-8">Inflation Reduction Act</a>—would likely hurt EV sales, but sources told Reuters that Tesla representatives supported ending the subsidy. </p><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk has become a strong ally of Trump in recent months, supporting his campaign with sizable donations and spending time with him at his Mar-a-Lago residence.</p><p>Musk has said previously that while ending federal tax incentives for EV purchases would hurt Tesla sales, the move would be more damaging to Tesla's US EV competitors, including General Motors and Ford. </p><p><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gm-stock">General Motors</a> stock jumped about 1% on Wednesday, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/f-stock">Ford</a> shares were about flat.</p><p>Reuters noted that the tax credit is likely an easy target. Other pieces of the Inflation Reduction Act could be hard to roll back, as the money for many programs has already been distributed. Eliminating the tax credit would likely garner wide support from Republicans and help offset the costs of future tax cuts.</p>

EV makers slide on report Trump wants to scrap EV tax credit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Expect a re-acceleration of inflation for the rest of 2024 into 2025, says Michael Landsberg.</li><li>High shipping rates and daily living expenses indicate that inflation could be worse than expected.</li></ul><p>A few months ago, it seemed like the war on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/higher-long-term-inflation-outlook-investing-strategy-attractive-bonds-stocks-2024-10">inflation</a> had been won.</p><p>Wall Street strategists were expecting inflation to continue cooling down into 2025, clearing the way for a series of consistent rate cuts as the Federal Reserve insisted price increases were no longer a threat. In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices rose 2.4% from last year — closing in on the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.</p><p>Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, wasn't so sure. He saw signs in the market pointing to a re-acceleration of inflation in the last few months of 2024 and into 2025.</p><p>Now, it seems like Landsberg may be right. After a Trump victory, concerns about inflation are creeping up again as proposed policies such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-hit-company-stock-profits-hardest-china-investing-manufacturing-2024-11">tariffs</a> could push prices up. And as the October CPI report showed, inflation is back on the rise, with prices increasing 2.6% year-over-year. In an interview with Business Insider, Landsberg shared the economic indicators he's watching to monitor inflation and the best way to prepare your portfolio in case of another flare up.</p><h2 id="7dc40d47-f3ee-4de6-bd68-d838e6c9299f"><strong>'Higher for longer'</strong></h2><p>Inflation could rise to 3% as early as January and hit a mid-3% level in 2025, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue its rate-cutting cycle, in Landsburg's view. He's expecting the Fed to pause rate cuts in December.</p><p>Landsberg believes the Bureau of Labor Statistics' metrics aren't providing the full inflation picture. He's keeping his eye out on other economic indicators that provide a more on-the-ground look at inflation levels.</p><p>First, rising Chinese shipping rates are a telling sign of inflation. China is one of the US' biggest trading partners, so an increase in transportation costs between the two countries will likely trickle down and reflect in consumer prices.</p><p>Geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea are contributing to the price increases, as shipping companies are forced to detour and choose longer and more expensive routes, according to Landsberg.</p><p>With <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-red-sea-attacks-panama-canal-shipping-2024-1">12% of global trade</a> passing through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea region is a critical trade route for consumer basics such as oil, cars, raw materials, and electronic components. As a result, these blockades are putting pressure on global supply chains and shipping costs.</p><div type="image" title="Shanghai Containerized Freight Index" height="663" width="1185" msid="115308890" hostid="261" sizebytes="33696"></div><p>The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, which tracks the current spot freight rates for containerized cargo departing from Shanghai, China, has remained elevated in 2024 after spiking earlier this year due to the continued blockade of the Red Sea by Houthi rebels.</p><p>"Shipping costs don't affect margins of companies as much as they're going to affect people's wallets, and that's not getting looked at," Landsberg said.</p><p>Landsberg also points to the high prices of commodities and everyday necessities. Food prices and rents are still rising. In some East Coast metro areas, rents have risen over double digits since last year, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.redfin.com/news/rental-tracker-october-2024/">Redfin</a>.</p><p>Insurance prices are another strong indicator of inflation, whether it be for cars or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/states-most-at-risk-climate-change-rising-home-insurance-premiums-2024-10">homes</a>.</p><p>"Inflation in insurance, which everyone has to have all the time, is up double digits year-over-year," Landsberg said. "That affects people's wallets certainly more than just a printed CPI number."</p><p>That's not to mention the potential of wage inflation. According to October's employment report, hourly wage growth was up 4% from this time last year. If Trump clamps down on immigration, then that number could go even higher as the supply of workers falls, pushing up the cost of labor.</p><h2 id="102f3015-2817-4d7e-8b5c-6ea2e030d247"><strong>Rebalance your portfolio</strong></h2><p>Diversification is key in an inflationary environment by spreading out risk between sectors and asset classes, but you might be less diversified that you think, according to Landsberg.</p><p>One mistake that Landsberg sees investors making is doubling down too much on a specific investment theme. Investors bullish on AI may have devised creative ways to play the AI trade outside of the technology sector, such as buying data center real estate investment trusts and utility stocks. This can give them a false sense of security in their portfolio, as it seems like they're exposed to multiple different sectors.</p><p>However, if all of your investments across sectors are based on the AI theme, you won't experience much derisking.</p><p>Landsberg points to the market selloff in August this year, where utilities and real estate indices fared better than technology, but individual real estate and utilities stocks with significant exposure to data centers didn't perform so well.</p><p>"I tell people now that we need to be diversified on themes, not just on sectors," Landsberg said. Some other secular growth themes that Landsberg believes will drive stocks include an aging population, cybersecurity, and alternative energy.</p><p>In addition to making sure you're sufficiently diversified, there are some other steps that you can take to protect your portfolio from inflation. Landsberg identified a few inflation-benefitting trades such as energy, financials, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-in-gold-price-record-highs-safe-haven-2024-10">gold</a>.</p><p>Some funds that provide exposure to these sectors include the <strong>Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (</strong><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=1"><strong>XLE</strong></a><strong>)</strong>, the <strong>iShares US Financials ETF (</strong><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=1"><strong>IYF</strong></a><strong>)</strong>, and the <strong>Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (</strong><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/goldman-sachs-physical-gold-etf-us38150k1034?miRedirects=1"><strong>AAAU</strong></a><strong>)</strong></p><p>As the end of the year draws near, Landsberg recommends taking a look at your portfolio and rebalancing some positions. If you're overexposed to technology and AI, now is a good time to put money in more inflation-resistant areas.</p><p>Ultimately, make sure you're investing in high-quality companies with a robust financial profile, he said.</p><p>"You need to have a portion of your portfolio that will do well if inflation starts to move back higher," Landsberg said. "You want companies with pricing power, companies with earnings growth."</p>

Here's how to rebalance your portfolio as these economic indicators flash 'higher for longer' inflation and rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul><p>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. </p><p>Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.</p><p>That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. </p><p>"President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.</p><p>Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.</p><p>Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation.</p><p>"If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."</p><p>Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.</p><p>Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.</p><p>The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows.</p><p>"More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.</p><p>Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said.</p><p>"Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.</p><p>Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result. </p>

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kalshi and Polymarket made waves this election as billions of dollars were bet on the outcome. </li><li>Kalshi launched election betting for US citizens after winning court approval in early October.</li></ul><p><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">Billions of dollars were bet</a> on the presidential election outcome via prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.</p><p>It was a new phenomenon in election cycles, with Kalshi receiving court approval in early October to launch election-based betting contracts for US citizens.</p><p>Betting sites garnered particular attention for diverging from the polls, though the prediction markets turned out to be largely correct. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump was favored to win</a> the election throughout the month of October on Kalshi and Polymarket, while most polls had the candidates locked in a dead heat. </p><p>With the election over, money is now flowing into other bets on the platform, from everything from Rotten Tomato movie scores to the winner of the upcoming Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight.</p><p>Here are some of the most popular bets on Kalshi and Polymarket now that the election is over. </p><h3 id="383efe79-bfc7-4086-8e71-5cc293aaf730">Super Bowl Champion 2025</h3><div type="image" title="The Kansas City Chiefs offense at the line of scrimmage against the Los Angeles Chargers during a 2024 NFL game." height="1867" width="2800" msid="115265052" hostid="261" sizebytes="296002"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Chiefs (18¢), Lions (16¢), Ravens (13¢), Bills (9¢), 49ers (8¢), Eagles (7¢), Packers (3¢), Commanders (3¢), Steelers (3¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $751.0 million</p><h3 id="e98ba7c5-e511-4ddb-a9d6-e52d1293353e">Will Biden finish his term?</h3><div type="image" title="Joe Biden." height="3196" width="4794" msid="115265047" hostid="261" sizebytes="639570"></div><p><strong>Current odds: </strong>Yes (93¢), No (8¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $33.3 million</p><h3 id="ee57d494-7bb0-4f81-81dd-82a16da5ebb9">Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson: Who will win?</h3><div type="image" title="Jake Paul stands with his fists up in a boxing ring during a 2023 fight." height="1867" width="2800" msid="115265043" hostid="261" sizebytes="199834"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Jake Paul (64¢), Mike Tyson (27¢), Draw (11¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $5.0 million</p><h3 id="2e9bb407-36b5-4b32-ac16-3378cf88fd92">Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?</h3><div type="image" title="A worker helps to put the headpiece on top of a performer in a Bitcoin (BTC) costume at Thailand Crypto Expo 2022" height="2667" width="4000" msid="115265055" hostid="261" sizebytes="1251444"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Yes (73¢), No (30¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $3.5 million</p><h3 id="11112e2a-c057-4665-a458-2974e9875a67">Next Senate Majority Leader?</h3><div type="image" title="From left: Sens. John Thune, Rick Scott, and John Cornyn are all officially running to succeed Mitch McConnell." height="1000" width="2000" msid="115265048" hostid="261" sizebytes="102668"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> John Thune (64¢), Rick Scott (26¢), John Cornyn (11¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $2.0 million</p><h3 id="137c3f8d-040f-4f76-889b-f524a168bbe4">Next James Bond actor?</h3><div type="image" title="james bond" height="786" width="1206" msid="115265056" hostid="261" sizebytes="24884"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Aaron Taylor-Johnson (9¢), Henry Cavill (5¢), Damson Idris (3¢), Rege-Jean Page (1¢), Cosmo Jarvis (1¢), Tom Hardy (1¢), Other (80¢)</p><p><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $448,398</p><h3 id="e5976d76-3516-4581-975a-46c639da17bc">Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?</h3><div type="image" title="Taylor Swift and Scott Swift cheer from a box at a stadium." height="1333" width="2000" msid="115265045" hostid="261" sizebytes="529224"></div><p><strong>Current odds: </strong>Yes (12¢), No (90¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $397,339</p><h3 id="51e687e4-e287-44dc-aebe-84b1039ca505">Who will be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?</h3><div type="image" title="beyonce renaissance tour" height="3403" width="5000" msid="115265058" hostid="261" sizebytes="1007486"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Taylor Swift (78¢), Beyonce (21¢), Rihanna (2¢), Other (1¢)<br /><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $387,787</p><h3 id="50d42131-57ad-4fb6-bf2f-65233a6c109e">"Wicked" Rotten Tomatoes Score?</h3><div type="image" title="Ariana Grande at a photocall for &quot;Wicked&quot; in November 2024." height="1333" width="2000" msid="115265062" hostid="261" sizebytes="154468"></div><p><strong>Current odds: </strong>Above 95 (19¢), Above 90 (48¢), Above 85 (75¢), Above 80 (78¢), Above 75 (80¢)</p><p><strong>Betting volume:</strong> $299,765</p><h3 id="3e085251-4873-472f-a031-a9eb6e580193">Will Trump say "mog" in 2024?</h3><div type="image" title="Donald Trump" height="1333" width="2000" msid="115265065" hostid="261" sizebytes="106566"></div><p><strong>Current odds:</strong> Yes (9¢), No (93¢)<br /><strong>Betting Volume:</strong> $162,099</p>

Here's what people are betting on in prediction markets now that the election is over

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks have rallied postelection, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since last Tuesday.</li><li>Bob Elliott sees potential for continued upside due to expected tax cuts and lower regulation.</li></ul><p>Investors have enjoyed an almost-everything rally in US stocks since the presidential election, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since then.</p><p>While some strategists and money managers have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-trump-trade-dot-com-bubble-sp500-smead-2024-11">warned the surge</a> has only pushed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">high valuations</a> even higher, Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds, thinks the upswing can keep going.</p><p>In a November 7 interview with Business Insider, the former executive at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund by assets under management, said that the likely outcome of a red sweep means that investors will begin to account for the benefits of tax cuts and lower regulation more than they might have under a divided government outcome.</p><p>"There's most likely more room to run to price in that expansionary fiscal policy ahead," Elliott said. "Valuations are certainly elevated, but the power of over-easy monetary and fiscal policy, relative to conditions, is likely stronger than any concern about valuation in the near-term for most investors."</p><p>Not only have investor expectations been adjusted, but the uncertainty that has kept many investors in safer assets has now been removed and should leave more inflows, Elliott said.</p><p>"A lot of the clouds have cleared, and so it's very likely we see those folks who remained cautious through this week start to allocate capital, particularly through the end of the year," he said.</p><p>In terms of fiscal policy, Elliott said that Republicans would likely extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which will keep corporate and individual taxes lower than they were likely to have defaulted to under a Democratic administration or split government.</p><p>The amount of mergers and acquisitions should also increase thanks to lower regulations, he said.</p><p>Tariffs and the large-scale deportation of migrants would be aspects of Trump's agenda that could be damaging to growth, Elliott added, though it's unclear how likely these initiatives are to be carried out, For example, tariffs could just be bargaining chips being put forth by Trump to negotiate new trade terms with other countries.</p><p>"We probably won't really know what that path will look like until the second half of 2025," he said.</p><p>Until then, the outlook is bullish for "everything but bonds," Elliott said.</p><p>But three areas within the broader stock market should be primed for more upside than others. A solid macroeconomic backdrop and falling rates have typically been factors that are good for cheaper stocks, he said, and they should get more of a boost relative to other areas of the market in the near future.</p><p>"When you get these types of conditions where you have reasonably strong economic conditions and a loosening or an easing of policy, that often will cause liquidity to take advantage of or flow to unloved corners of the market," he said.</p><p>He continued: "So areas that have been underperforming — things like small-caps, energy stocks, financials — areas like that that just have not seen the sort of top-line demand that things like tech stocks have seen."</p><p>Investors can gain exposure to these areas of the market through funds like the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-small-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087518?miRedirects=2">VB</a>), the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=2">XLE</a>), and the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=2">IYF</a>).</p>

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