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Mumbai: The rupee slipped 1 paisa to an all-time low of 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday, as persistent <keyword id="20520117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-fund-outflows" source="keywords">foreign fund outflows</keyword> and a muted trend in domestic equities weighed on the local unit. Forex traders said the USDINR pair has shown significant volatility in recent sessions, with the rupee inching closer to its all-time low of 84.40. This downward pressure is largely driven by global factors, particularly the Dollar Index's strengthening. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.40 against the greenback, registering a fall of 1 paisa over its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee fell 1 paisa to a new lifetime low of 84.39 against the US dollar. "It appears that the rupee has established support around the current levels, with depreciation limited near 84.50," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further added that the RBI stands tall as the depreciation in the rupee seems to be limited as the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) continues to sell the dollars to protect the sharp depreciation. "For the 5th consecutive week, India's forex reserves declined, possibly due to RBI selling the dollars. Currently, the forex reserves of India stand at USD 682 billion down from the recent all-time high of USD 704 billion," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.04 per cent at 105.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.25 per cent to USD 72.07 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 210.66 points, or 0.27 per cent lower, to 78,464.52 points. The Nifty fell 100.45 points, or 0.42 per cent, to 23,783.00 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 3,024.31 crore, according to exchange data. On the macroeconomic front, retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October mainly on account of rising food prices. Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September and 4.87 per cent in the year-ago month. India's industrial production expanded by 3.1 per cent in September after recording a contraction in the preceding month, as all three major segments -- mining, manufacturing, and power generation -- showed improvement. However, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) during the month was lower than 6.4 per cent registered in September 2023.

Rupee falls 1 paisa to all-time low of 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

In a significant move, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has imposed penalties on <keyword id="19952948" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="axis-bank" source="keywords">Axis Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hdfc-bank" source="keywords">HDFC Bank</keyword> for lapses in regulatory and statutory compliance. The fines, which amount to a total of ₹2.91 crore, highlight the central bank's ongoing efforts to ensure that financial institutions adhere to prescribed guidelines. The RBI levied a penalty of ₹1.91 crore on Axis Bank for violations that included contraventions of the <keyword id="19976511" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-regulation-act" source="keywords">Banking Regulation Act</keyword> and non-compliance with specific RBI directions related to interest rates on deposits, Know Your Customer (KYC) norms, and collateral-free loans for agriculture. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank faced a ₹1 crore fine for failing to comply with directions concerning interest rates, customer service practices, and the use of recovery agents. <h2>Axis Bank: Key regulatory failures</h2>Axis Bank’s penalty stems from a supervisory evaluation conducted by the RBI based on its financial position as of March 31, 2023. Upon reviewing the bank’s activities, the RBI found several areas of non-compliance. One of the primary issues was the opening of savings deposit accounts in the names of ineligible entities, a direct violation of regulatory norms. Additionally, Axis Bank was found to have issued multiple customer identification codes to certain clients instead of assigning a Unique Customer Identification Code (UCIC), which is mandatory to avoid duplication and ensure proper monitoring of accounts. The bank also violated guidelines concerning agricultural loans. RBI regulations prohibit banks from asking for collateral for agricultural loans up to ₹1.60 lakh, but Axis Bank had obtained such collateral in certain cases. Lastly, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Axis Bank was found to be engaged in providing technology services—an activity that is not permissible for a banking company. This contravention added to the overall penalty levied by the central bank. <h2>HDFC Bank: Regulatory shortcomings</h2> In the case of HDFC Bank, the RBI’s investigation was based on its financial position as of March 31, 2022. The central bank uncovered several violations, including the offering of gifts, specifically covering the first-year premium for complimentary life insurance, which exceeded the permissible limit of ₹250. Moreover, HDFC Bank was found to have opened savings accounts in the names of ineligible entities, a violation similar to that of Axis Bank. Another significant failure was the bank’s inability to ensure that customers were not contacted by bank officials outside the permitted time frame of 7 am to 7 pm. <h2>RBI's Stance on Compliance</h2> While the RBI has been stringent in penalising both banks, it clarified that these penalties are based on lapses in regulatory compliance and are not reflective of the validity of any transactions or agreements between the banks and their customers. The central bank’s message is clear—financial institutions must adhere strictly to guidelines to maintain transparency, protect customers, and uphold the integrity of the banking system. The penalties serve as a reminder to all banks to stay vigilant and maintain high standards of compliance to avoid such financial and reputational damage in the future. Both Axis Bank and HDFC Bank have accepted the fines and are expected to take corrective actions to avoid future infractions. For customers, this action from the RBI is a reassurance that regulatory oversight remains a priority to ensure fair banking practices across the country.

RBI slaps fine of Rs 2.91 crore on Axis Bank and HDFC Bank: All details

The <keyword id="19925636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-market" source="keywords">stock market</keyword> closed in the green, with benchmark indices hitting new all-time highs at the end of closing sessions on Monday. The <keyword id="19950208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE-Sensex" source="keywords">BSE Sensex</keyword> surged by 384.30 points, closing at 84,928.61, while the NSE <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> gained 148.10 points to settle at 25,939.05. Both indices ended the session driven by strong buying in sectors like auto, oil and gas, and <keyword id="19976433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-services" source="keywords">financial services</keyword>. Out of the Nifty 50 companies, 34 stocks advanced, while 16 declined. Bajaj Auto, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (M&amp;M), ONGC, Hero Motocorp, and SBI Life emerged as the top gainers, contributing significantly to the market's rise. On the flip side, Eicher Motors, ICICI Bank, Divi's Labs, Wipro, and IndusInd Bank were the top losers, experiencing profit booking after recent rallies. The market's bullish momentum was largely influenced by anticipation surrounding the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to be held October 7 to 9 and its decision on the repo rate. As the market gears up for potential rate cuts, India VIX, a volatility index, spiked by more than 9 per cent, also reflecting investor caution. VLA <keyword id="19958748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ambala" source="keywords">Ambala</keyword>, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, commented on the session's performance, highlighting the role of macroeconomic factors. "In today's session, the India VIX rose more than 9 per cent as the market awaits the MPC policy and <keyword id="21977342" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate-cut" source="keywords">REPO rate cut</keyword> decision. Notably, India's fast composite PMI recorded a slightly slower growth in September. This is the slowest rate of growth in 2024 for the manufacturing and service sectors," she said. "According to me, to remain globally competitive, the RBI needs to match the US Fed rate, which will create a significant difference between India's lending growth and the long-term FD rates," she added. Ambala emphasized the importance of the RBI's decision in maintaining India's global competitiveness, particularly in comparison to the US Federal Reserve's rates. She noted that any repo rate cut by the RBI could inject more liquidity into the economy, potentially spurring a bullish trend in the equity market and benefiting asset classes like real estate. "If the RBI chooses a REPO rate cut, it will inject more liquidity into the economy, likely fueling a bullish market trend. On the other hand, account holders could enjoy better returns in asset classes such as the equity market and real estate," she said. "The banking and NBFC sectors are already responding to the potential rate cut, and we may see a decline of 100-200 bps points in the next 1.5 years. Since the market has been resilient, I believe it will adapt quickly to these economic changes," Ambala added. Currently, major indices such as Nifty, Bank Nifty, Financial Services, Mid Cap 100, Mid Cap 150, Next 50, FMCG, Consumption, Metal, Infrastructure, and Auto are trading at all-time highs. Sectors like NBFCs, Realty, Infrastructure, and PSU stocks are expected to remain in focus as potential rate cuts could open up significant opportunities for mid-term investors. The technical indicators show that the broader trend remains bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Nifty standing at 74 on the daily, 75 on the weekly, and 83 on the monthly timeframe. However, Ambala advised investors to approach the market cautiously. "The Nifty index can expect support levels at 25,870 and 25,680 with resistance at 26,050 and 26,130 in the next market session," she stated.

Sensex soars to 84,928, Nifty settles at 25,939 as stock market closes at all-time high

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

As <keyword id="23288581" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Dhanteras" source="keywords">Dhanteras</keyword> shopping kicks off, <keyword id="20402496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-sales" source="keywords">jewellery sales</keyword> have begun on a slower-than-anticipated note, likely due to both elevated <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> and weekday timing, which has kept morning footfalls modest, a PTI report says. Jewellers are hopeful for increased customer flow starting this afternoon, with peak shopping expected after 2 p.m. <keyword id="20036537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Saiyam-Mehra" source="keywords">Saiyam Mehra</keyword>, chairman of the <keyword id="21612311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="All-India-Gem-and-Jewellery-Domestic-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council">All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council</keyword>, said that while high gold prices (around ₹81,100 per 10 grams) are expected to curb volume somewhat, they hope to match last year’s numbers in terms of value. Mehra anticipates sales volume may be similar to or slightly lower than last year’s 20 tonnes due to the sustained high prices. Being a weekday we are seeing few footfalls in the morning hours as people are going to attend office. However, we are expecting the rush from afternoon, that is 2-2.30 pm, till late evening," he told PTI. <keyword id="20398993" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Saurabh-Gadgil" source="keywords">Saurabh Gadgil</keyword>, Chairman of PN Gadgil Jewellers, added that Dhanteras festivities extending into Wednesday offer a broader business window, with customer bookings showing promise despite possible dips in quantity sold. The extra shopping time could offset some of the price impact, particularly for buyers seeking smaller gold pieces or silver, which has remained steady at ₹99,500 per kg. Senco Gold and Diamonds MD Suvankar Sen noted positive weekend turnout, expecting the crowd to grow through the afternoon and into late evening. The industry anticipates late-night demand will hold strong, especially among buyers seeking traditional purchases on this auspicious day for jewellery investments. This extended buying period provides customers with more options, as jewellers focus on flexibility to accommodate high-value purchases amid record gold prices. (with PTI inputs)

Dhanteras 2024: Jewellers report slower than expected sales due to rising gold prices

Just as India gears up to celebrate Dhanteras tomorrow, in some good news for Indians, <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> today witnessed a dip of about Rs 10, with 24-carat gold currently valued at Rs 8,045.3/gram and 22-carat gold at Rs 7,376.3/gram. As per the <keyword id="23632186" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="All-India-Sarafa-Association" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="All India Sarafa Association" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="All India Sarafa Association">All India Sarafa Association</keyword>, gold prices fell by Rs 400 to Rs 81,100/10 grams in Delhi today. However, silver remained flat at Rs 99,500 per kg. Meanwhile, gold of 99.55 purity declined Rs 400 to Rs 80,700 per 10 grams on Monday. The value of gold as a symbol of wealth and prosperity in our culture is no secret, which is why Indians look forward to buying it on auspicious, festive occasions like Dhanteras. Moreover, with the wedding season setting in, the demand for gold is only set to increase in the months to come. At 24%, the yellow metal's annual return in 2024 has been nothing less than glittering. Compare this with the 14.88% returns gold delivered in 2023. The last time gold returns skyrocketed was at the peak of the pandemic, i.e., in 2019-2020, when gold's annual yields were at 24.45% and 28.24%, respectively. In 2024, gold's demand as a safe investment avenue has only skyrocketed. <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">Geopolitical tensions</keyword> and inflationary pressures have pushed not just individual investors but even central banks to make a beeline for the yellow metal. During the second half of this year, India's RBI and Poland's National Bank were among the largest buyers of gold. Per a report by <keyword id="20046776" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Religare-Broking" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Religare Broking" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Religare Broking">Religare Broking</keyword>, global official reserves of gold burgeoned by 290 metric tons during the first quarter of 2024. The momentum continued well into the second quarter as well, with global central bank gold purchases jumping by 6% to 183 tons during this period. "We continue to believe that gold has further upside potential wherein any dips could present buying opportunities. According to our recent quarterly report, a correction of 5-7% is plausible and could serve as an accumulation zone," note experts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. <h2>Returns-wise, how has gold performed?</h2> Data from CapitalMind PMS suggests that between 2000 and 2024, gold has outperformed Nifty and silver in about 7 years. Nifty has been a clear winner overall, outpacing gold and silver in 12 out of 25 years in review. Silver only managed to inch past gold and Nifty in just 6 years. Per data, gold returns peaked at 29.9% in 2011, largely on the back of global financial uncertainty. Years where gold has delivered 20%+ returns <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 468pt; font-family: Merriweather; table-layout: fixed; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Gold Returns (in %) </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">Nifty Returns (in%) </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2002 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">24.1 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">5.3 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2008 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">24.5 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">-51.3 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2009 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">24.9 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">77.5 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2010 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">21.7 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">19.2 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2011 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">29.9 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">-23.8 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2019 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">22.9 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">13.5 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">2020 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">27 </td><td style="border-width: 1pt; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 5pt; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; overflow-wrap: break-word;">16.1 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: CapitalMind PMS Not just in India, gold has delivered returns exceeding domestic equity markets in most emerging countries like Turkey and Argentina. Per the DSP Netra October report, over the last 26 years, equity markets in Turkey have delivered 21.2% returns, as opposed to gold, which has generated 29.3% returns during the same period. Similarly, in Argentina, equity markets have delivered 38.4% returns, while gold saw 44.3% returns in the same time frame. <h2>Stay put for Silver</h2> However, if experts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services are to be believed, the performance of silver could either match or outperform gold in the medium to long term, as <keyword id="20762025" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="silver-prices" source="keywords">silver prices</keyword> are expected to reach Rs 1,25,000 per kilogram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and USD 40 per ounce on the COMEX within the next 12 to 15 months. In fact, even the YTD (yield to date) for silver is higher at 31.1% as compared to gold, which stands at 22.6%. However, do not go overboard with silver allocation in your portfolio.

Ahead of Dhanteras 2024, how has gold glittered so far this year?

<keyword id="19898109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Paytm" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm">Paytm</keyword> has regained approval from the National Payments Corporation of India (<keyword id="19998946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NPCI" source="keywords">NPCI</keyword>) to onboard new UPI users, marking a significant turnaround for the fintech giant. This development follows a setback earlier this year when <keyword id="20410154" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Paytm-Payments-Bank-Limited" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Paytm Payments Bank Limited" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Paytm Payments Bank Limited">Paytm Payments Bank Limited</keyword> (PPBL), an associate company of Paytm, was barred from adding new users to its UPI platform due to regulatory concerns raised by the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). <h2>Paytm gets permission to onboard new UPI users </h2> In a regulatory filing on Tuesday evening, Paytm disclosed that NPCI granted permission for the company to resume onboarding UPI users, provided it complies with all procedural guidelines and circulars issued by the corporation. “We would like to inform you that vide letter dated October 22, 2024, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) has granted approval to the Company to on-board new UPI users, with adherence to all NPCI procedural guidelines and circulars,” Paytm said in the filing. This move is seen as a relief for the company, which has been under scrutiny following the RBI’s intervention in January. The NPCI, which had previously allowed Paytm to operate as a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP) for UPI transactions, has now reinstated its ability to bring new users onto the platform, albeit with strict conditions. Paytm can continue UPI operations through its partnerships with major banking institutions, including SBI, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and YES Bank. The NPCI’s approval comes after a thorough review of Paytm’s compliance with procedural guidelines, including those pertaining to risk management, app branding, multi-bank participation, and data privacy. The fintech firm has been instructed to adhere to key regulatory frameworks, such as the Payments and Settlement Act of 2007 and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act of 2023. This approval follows a request by Paytm’s parent company, <keyword id="20253123" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="One97-Communications" source="keywords">One97 Communications</keyword> Ltd (OCL), in August, seeking permission to resume UPI onboarding. The NPCI’s decision also reflects that Paytm has addressed concerns raised in the RBI’s directive from earlier this year, which had highlighted persistent non-compliance issues with its banking subsidiary, PPBL. On a related note, Paytm reported a strong financial performance for the quarter ending September 2024. The company posted a net profit of ₹928.3 crore, a marked improvement from the ₹290.5 crore loss it recorded during the same period last year. <h2>What had happened? </h2> For the unversed, in January 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) told Paytm Payments Bank Limited (PPBL) to stop accepting deposits and processing UPI top-ups. This decision stemmed from ongoing concerns about the bank’s compliance and serious issues that needed addressing. As a result, Paytm found itself unable to onboard new UPI users, significantly disrupting its growing customer base and raising doubts about its future in the crowded <keyword id="19989657" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-payments" source="keywords">digital payments</keyword> market. However, things took a turn for the better in March 2024 when the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) gave Paytm the green light to resume UPI transactions. The catch? Paytm could only operate as a Third-Party Application Provider (TPAP), meaning it had to partner with established banks like SBI, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, and YES Bank for its UPI services. While this arrangement posed some limitations, it allowed Paytm to keep moving forward and adapt to the regulatory challenges it faced in India’s digital payment landscape. (with PTI inputs)

Paytm can onboard new UPI users again, receives NPCI nod months after RBI restrictions

The one-hour <keyword id="23618998" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Muhurat-trading" source="keywords">muhurat trading</keyword> session, which marks <keyword id="20963892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Diwali-2024" source="keywords">Diwali 2024</keyword> and the onset of Hindu Samvat 2081 on both NSE and BSE, is set to commence at 6 pm today and will conclude at 7 pm. Generally, investors and traders make symbolic stock buys during this hour-long session, since it is believed that purchases made during this time herald wealth and prosperity for one’s investments for the year to come. If you are looking for <keyword id="19910146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-recommendations" source="keywords">stock recommendations</keyword> to add to your portfolio, here are a few value picks by SAMCO and Kotak Securities you can consider: <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> Ltd Holding period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 1,734.30 Per the firm, “The bank has maintained a robust 10-year profit CAGR of 21.74%, operating with a NIM (net interest margin) of 3.5% and a low net NPA (non-performing assets) of 0.3%. Advances and deposits have shown steady growth. Currently, the stock trades below its 10-year average price-to-book value and at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, offering a favorable risk-reward profile with a substantial downside buffer”. <keyword id="22086440" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vindhya-Telelinks" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Vindhya Telelinks" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Vindhya Telelinks">Vindhya Telelinks</keyword> Ltd Holding Period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 1,992.55 SAMCO notes that this key cable manufacturing, which is a joint venture between Universal Cables Limited and Madhya Pradesh State Industrial Development Corporation, has shown robust growth over the last 5 years, nearly doubling revenues with a 14.3% CAGR. The company holds significant investments in Birla Cable Ltd, Birla Corporation Ltd, and Universal Cable Ltd, totaling Rs 3,618 crore—surpassing its market capitalization of Rs 2,545 crore. This solid investment base underscores Vindhya Telelinks’ strong fundamentals and financial potential. <keyword id="23763358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ramco-Industries" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ramco Industries" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Ramco Industries">Ramco Industries</keyword> Ltd Holding Period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 244.89 SAMCO observes that over the past decade, sales grew at a 7% CAGR, while the share price rose at a 14% CAGR. Known for its financial stability, Ramco Industries boasts a low debt-equity ratio of 0.07 and has consistently paid dividends since FY17, currently yielding 0.31%. The stock’s attractive price-to-book multiple of 0.5 offers a solid margin of safety, highlighting its investment appeal. <keyword id="22786675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gravita-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Gravita India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Gravita India">Gravita India</keyword> Holding Period: 12 months Last Traded Price: Rs 2,119 Kotak explains that Gravita India is the market leader in India’s emerging recycling industry with a focus on lead recycling. Gravita India is increasing its recycling capacity by a massive 72% to 500 ktpa by FY27E. “We expect the company’s earnings per share to grow by 31.8% in FY25E &amp; 31.6% in FY26E. We also expect an upside of 15% or more on this stock over the next 12 months”, adds Kotak’s note. <keyword id="23763359" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="S-H-Kelkar" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S H Kelkar" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S H Kelkar">S H Kelkar</keyword> and Company (SHKL) Holding Period: 12 months Last Traded Price: Rs 289.90 The company is a flavors &amp; fragrances (F&amp;F) supplier and has started to make inroads into the global market. SHK is well-placed to drive double-digit revenue growth. The company is a small but emerging contender in the vast F&amp;F market, with potential for margin expansion—higher-margin geographies &amp; operating leverage—allowing for over 15% return upside in the next 12 months. Kotak Securities further notes that FY25 will likely see more broad-based growth across sectors. However, the OMCs (oil marketing companies) may likely drag down overall profits. Most sectors and stocks are quite overvalued, with the degree of overvaluation ranging from: (1) low for most large-cap consumers, IT services, and pharmaceuticals (2) medium in the investment space (3) high in the case of several low-quality companies. "As the broader market valuations are rich, opportunities arising from market correction can be used to add quality stocks (with attractive valuations) from a long-term investment perspective," explains the research firm's note. SAMCO further advises adding a little glitter to your portfolio using GoldBees and SilverBees ETFs since there are recessionary fears in the US and geopolitical tensions across the world. Even central bankers like RBI have been adding gold to their vaults like never before. At present, markets are looking to secure their return on capital rather than seeking a return on capital. "Thus all of these make a strong case to add gold and silver to the portfolio. They will give stability to your portfolio this Samvat," adds SAMCO's note.

Muhurat trading 2024: 5 stock picks you can consider this time around

After a steep nosedive in demand for office space rentals during 2020 and 2021, a new <keyword id="19955574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Colliers-report" source="keywords">Colliers report</keyword> has now noted that office rentals across six major <keyword id="20026638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-cities" source="keywords">Indian cities</keyword> have finally rebounded to their <keyword id="20789690" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-pandemic-levels" source="keywords">pre-pandemic levels</keyword> and even inched around 2-8% higher. While some cities like <keyword id="19900176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hyderabad" source="keywords">Hyderabad</keyword> and Pune had already gone beyond their pre-pandemic rental levels as early as 2022, <keyword id="19895037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bengaluru" source="keywords">Bengaluru</keyword> and Chennai had followed suit a year later in 2023. The last to join the bandwagon were <keyword id="19906633" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Delhi-NCR" source="keywords">Delhi NCR</keyword> and Mumbai, which finally managed to breach their pre-pandemic levels in 2024. However, both Delhi and Mumbai recorded the highest jump in average rentals at 8% each, followed by Mumbai and Chennai, which saw hikes of about 5-6% during this period. The recovery in demand for office spaces, which kicked off in 2022, has stayed steady since. Arpit Mehrotra, Managing Director, Office Services, India, Colliers notes that going ahead, the annual increase in average quoted rentals at the end of 2024 is likely to be higher for certain cities like Delhi NCR and Pune, as compared to other markets. "Moreover, as demand scale-up in Indian <keyword id="20107243" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commercial-real-estate" source="keywords">commercial real estate</keyword> solidifies, notwithstanding unforeseen events, annual space take up to the tune of 60 million sq ft is likely to be the new norm in the medium-term," he added. <h2>Prime location takes the cake</h2>Even within these cities, the growth of rental demand in certain micro-markets, which are located at prime locations, saw greater than the 2-8% average growth. For instance, in Delhi NCR, Gold Course Extension Road, Noida Expressway, and Cyber City saw up to a 25% rise in rentals. In Bengaluru, which saw around 2% <keyword id="22329786" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rental-growth" source="keywords">rental growth</keyword> overall, Whitefield and ORR (Outer Ring Road) commanded a rental premium, with rents here surging by as much as 5-10% between 2019 and 2024. IOMR Zone 1 in Chennai and Bandra-Kurla Complex, Goregaon, and JVLR in Mumbai saw rents surge by around 10-20% from pre-pandemic levels between 2019 and 2024. In contrast, rental rates in Chennai and Mumbai grew at around 5% and 6%, respectively. In Hyderabad, SBD, or the Secondary Business District, which comprises of Gachibowli, Hitec City, and more, saw rentals surge between 5-10% between 2019 and 2024, as opposed to the 5% cumulative rental growth experienced by Hyderabad. In Pune, CBD and Kharadi saw rentals inch up by 5-10%, whereas the whole of Pune only saw their rentals grow by around 5% during the past 6 years. Mumbai and Delhi have also seen a dip in <keyword id="23656583" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vacancy-levels" source="keywords">vacancy levels</keyword> since 2019. While this has dropped to 20% in Delhi at present, Mumbai ranks the lowest in terms of empty office spaces at 10.7%. In both these cities, demand for office spaces has consistently outpaced supply, which explains the low vacancies. In contrast, in Hyderabad, where supply continues to trump demand, current vacancy levels have gone as high as 25%. Going ahead, the Colliers report also estimates that average office rentals can witness up to 10% annual growth across key Indian cities by the end of this year.

Office rents across all major Indian cities surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024, notes a new report

<keyword id="19951168" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-governor-Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">RBI governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> was awarded an A+ grade, the highest of the lot, for the second time in a row by the <keyword id="22855254" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-Finance-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Global Finance Magazine" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Global Finance Magazine">Global Finance Magazine</keyword>'s <keyword id="22862849" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Central-Banker-Report-Card-2024" source="keywords">Central Banker Report Card 2024</keyword>. While the full list will be available in October, Das was ranked the highest, along with Denmark's Christian Kettel Thomsen and Switzerland's Thomas Jordan. Fed chairman Jerome Powell scored an A- on the list. Before Das, former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan had also made to this list in 2015, securing A grade. Taking to X, PM <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> and <keyword id="19982618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anand-Mahindra" source="keywords">Anand Mahindra</keyword>, who heads Mahindra and Mahindra, congratulated Das, with the billionaire calling him "a <keyword id="21663281" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-medalist" source="keywords">gold medalist</keyword> in central bank Olympics". <div type="twitter" handle="narendramodi" handlename="narendramodi" favoritecount="0" retweetcount="0" id="1826100085672857771"></div> <div type="twitter" handle="anandmahindra" handlename="anandmahindra" favoritecount="0" retweetcount="0" id="1825919281957159052"></div> Brazil's Roberto Campos Neto, Chile's Rosanna Costa, Sri Lanka's Nandalal Weerasinghe and Vietnam's Nguyen Thi Hong received a A grade, while EU's Christine Lagarde, Cambodia's Chea Serey and Sweden's Erik Thedéen were amongst those receiving the A-grade. Since 1994, Global Finance has been grading the central bank governors of nearly 100 countries. They are rated at a scale of A+ (excellent) to F (failure) depending on their success across specific parameters such as inflation control, economic growth goals, currency stability and interest rate management. <h2>Who is Shaktikanta Das? </h2>With a seasoned bureaucratic legacy of 35 years, Das is an IAS officer from the 1980 Tamil Nadu cadre. He graduated from St. Stephens College, Delhi with a degree in history, and was appointed as the 25th governor of the apex bank five years ago, on December 12th, 2018. Prior to assuming this position, Das had also served as secretary in the Department of Revenue and also, Economic Affairs under the <keyword id="19908390" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ministry-of-Finance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ministry of Finance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Ministry of Finance">Ministry of Finance</keyword>. He also served as the DM (district magistrate) for Dindigul and Kanchipuram. Having worked with 4 different finance ministers (Pranab Mukherjee, Arun Jaitley, P Chidambaram and Nirmala Sitharaman), Das had previously also been a member, 15th Finance Commission, along with being a G20 Sherpa in 2017. Das had been instrumental in preparation of India's last 8 union budgets, along with serving as India's alternate governor at various fora, like World Bank, Asian Development Bank, New Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and more. Das has several economic laurels to his name. From drafting the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code to executing tax devolution under GST for states and demonetisation, , Shaktikanta Das has played a crucial role in shaping India's overall economic health

Gold medalist in central bank Olympics-All you need to know about RBI governor Shaktikanta Das

On Thursday, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) sought action against four non-banking financial companies (<keyword id="19938300" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NBFCs" source="keywords">NBFCs</keyword>), barring them from making new loan sanctions and disbursements, effective October 21, 2024. A report by <keyword id="19977638" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Morgan Stanley" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Morgan Stanley">Morgan Stanley</keyword> suggests that more lending companies might face similar scrutiny in the coming days. As named by the RBI in its order yesterday, <keyword id="20146314" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asirvad-Microfinance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Asirvad Microfinance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Asirvad Microfinance">Asirvad Microfinance</keyword>, Arohan Financial Services, DMI Finance, and Navi Finserv failed to adhere to the <keyword id="21471399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Fair-Practices-Code" source="keywords">Fair Practices Code</keyword> and did not properly assess borrower's income and repayment capacities before disbursing loans, especially when it came to their microfinance loans. Additionally, these companies also resorted to dubious asset classifications and incomplete interest rate and fee disclosures, which in turn led to alarming practices like loan evergreening and more. RBI also found that the weighted average lending rate (WALR) and the interest spread charged over their cost of funds by these NBFCs were over the stipulated norms. Earlier this month, the apex had already issued a stern warning to the NBFC sector, discouraging them from pursuing aggressive loan book expansion at the cost of regulations and fair practices. Per the bank, it would be ideal if NBFCs self-corrected their ways and refrained from giving incentives and fixed targets to their employees for granting loans. As for these four NBFCs, RBI flagged significant deviations with respect to Income Recognition and Asset Classification (IR&amp;AC) norms in their functioning and gross mismanagement of their gold loan portfolios. As RBI noted, these NBFCs had outsourced several of their core financial services as well. The restrictions on these 4 NBFCs will be effective at the close of business as of October 21, 2024. But this will not affect the existing, active loans of the companies. Also, loan collection and recovery processes will also continue in line with existing guidelines. However, Morgan Stanley, in a recent report, has questioned this move, asking whether lending rates alone were the cause for concern by RBI against specified NBFCs or whether broader issues are at play. "Based on an observation of lending rate data collated and presented by MFIN (the industry body for microfinance lenders), we note that Asirvad Microfinance's lending rates are not very different from other lenders," the report said. The report also observes that more regulatory action might follow in the sector, but the intention here was not to shut down new lending by <keyword id="21739781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance-institutions" source="keywords">microfinance institutions</keyword> and NBFCs entirely. RBI's restrictions will stay in place until these NBFCs show that they have fully aligned their practices with regulatory guidelines. In response, Navi Finserv Limited has noted that it is committed to conducting its business operations with the highest standards of compliance, customer service, and transparency. "The company is reviewing the directions received from the Hon’ble Reserve Bank of India and will work with them and address all the concerns raised with promptness and completeness," it further added.

Reserve Bank may act against more NBFCs to keep obscure lending practices in check, says Morgan Stanley

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> consolidated in a narrow range and <keyword id="20220719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="depreciated" source="keywords">depreciated</keyword> 3 paise to close at its all-time low of 83.66 (provisional) against the US <keyword id="19904292" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dollar" source="keywords">dollar</keyword> on Friday, weighed down by strong American currency and muted trend in domestic equities. <keyword id="19950258" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex" source="keywords">Forex</keyword> <keyword id="19993499" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="traders" source="keywords">traders</keyword> said weak domestic markets and elevated <keyword id="19900090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="keywords">oil prices</keyword> pressured the rupee, however, likely <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) intervention prevented a sharp fall in the domestic unit. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.64, and touched an intra-day high of 83.60 and a low of 83.66 against the dollar during the trading session. It finally settled at an all-time low level of 83.66 (provisional) against the American currency, registering a loss of 3 paise from its previous close. On Thursday, the rupee depreciated 5 paise and settled at a new low of 83.63 against the US dollar. "We expect the rupee to trade with a slight negative bias on weak global markets and a strength in the US Dollar. Weak Asian and European currencies may also weigh on the rupee," Anuj Choudhary — Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas — said. Choudhary said Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) inflows and any intervention by the RBI may support the rupee at lower levels. "USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 83.40 to Rs 83.90," he said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.16 per cent at 104.33. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading marginally lower by 0.07 per cent at USD 85.05 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 738.81 points to settle at 80,604.65 and Nifty dropped 269.95 points to 24,530.90. Meanwhile, the Asian currencies were all down after a fall in European currencies as the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged in its meeting with a possibility of a cut in September, traders said. FIIs were net buyers in the capital markets on Thursday as they purchased shares worth Rs 5,483.63 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 3 paise to close at all-time low of 83.66 against US dollar

On September 18, 2024, the US <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> delivered a jumbo-sized surprise to the global economy. Not only did they trim their interest rates by a massive 50 basis points to bring their yields down to 5%, but also hinted at further rate cuts in the upcoming months. This move from the fed and several other central banks globally had pushed expectations high for a similar rate slash closer home, from the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> this month. But governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, in a “picture abhi baaki hai” moment, decided to hold the repo rates here steady, leaving them unchanged at 6.5% for the record 10th straight time. Although, he did tinker with the policy stand, changing it from “rate cuts are absolutely off the table” to a more accommodating “we’re okay with bringing down the rates, if needed”. This, rather neutral, stance from India’s financial custodian sparked hopes for a rate cut in December this year. However, the stubborn inflation levels in September have again dented such hopes. As consumers, you may be wondering what all the hullabaloo this is about, since it hardly makes a difference to your regular financial routine. Well, the majority of both economic growth and inflation is closely connected to this policy stance from the central bank and it does have a rather indirect effect on both our earnings and spending. But more directly, it would have clear implications for those looking to own a house. Even the slightest modification of interest rates, or the lack of it, influences the <keyword id="19916018" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="emi" source="keywords">EMI</keyword> you pay significantly. So, all aspiring homebuyers, is this the right time to take out a loan and buy a house? Can you expect a rate cut anytime soon, and what will that mean for your home-owning dreams? We lay it out. <h2>What’s the connection?</h2>You see, buying a house is no small feat, at least financially. The task becomes even more herculean if you are scouting for your own roof in cities like Delhi, Noida, Bangalore or Mumbai where, as Circuit from Munnabhai says, “room shuru hote hi khatam ho jata hai”. Naturally, you’ll have to take a <keyword id="6354730" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="home-loan" source="Orion">home loan</keyword> from the bank. Don’t be mistaken, the bank won't give you a loan that covers 100% of the value of the property you want to own. Rather, your loan amount will be equivalent to a certain percentage of the property’s total value. RBI’s guidelines on this are pretty clear: <ul><li>If your loan amount is up to Rs 30 lakh, you can get a loan worth 90% of the property’s value.</li></ul><ul><li>If the loan amount is between Rs 30 lakh and Rs 75 lakh, you are eligible for a loan worth 80% of the property’s value.</li><li>If you are taking a loan of more than Rs 75 lakh, your loan amount will be equivalent to 70% of the property’s value.</li></ul>Now assuming that you have the money, it's all about paying back the principal amount, but not without a little (read hefty) interest added on top. See, when you’re taking a home loan, you are actually signing up for a long-term, even multi-decadal financial commitment, which will unfailingly present itself to your bank accounts and finances every single month, in the form of EMIs, or equated monthly instalments). When you take a home loan, you can choose to pay the interest in two ways (talk about choices!). One is that you decide to keep a fixed rate of interest throughout the tenure of your home loan. So, if you opt for a 25-year fixed-rate home loan at the rate of 8.8% p.a., you’ll have to pay interest at this rate for the next 25 years, till your entire loan is paid off. Yes, you can go backsies and switch to a floating-rate home loan by paying a fee. Floating, as the name suggests, means that your interest rate is not set in stone. But starting October 2019, when it comes to a floating interest rate home loan, your payable interest and EMIs are directly impacted by any changes in <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword>, which were left unchanged by RBI this time around. Why are these two so chummy, you might ask. Well, home loan interest rates are a sum of two things: <ol><li>Repo Rate (the rate at which RBI lends money to banks)</li><li>Operational cost + margins</li></ol>Any plus or minus in this equation would send your home loan interests tanking, or skyrocketing. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that any change in the repo rates impacts the cost of funds and thereby the home loan interest rates. “When the interest rates are expected to reduce, the corresponding impact will be in the form of a reduced EMI. Home loan borrowers should always try to borrow at a floating rate when interest rates are expected to reduce and at a fixed rate when the interest rates are expected to increase. This minimizes the outflow in the form of EMIs that the home loan borrowers will experience”, he continues. So, no change in repo rates means no change in your home loan interest payout and no financial relief whatsoever. A rate cut, which most experts are anticipating will start this December, would mean your EMI payments come down, and your wallet might save a little more. But there’s also a chance of an UNO reverse happening. In case RBI is in the mood to hike the interest, your home loan EMIs might end up taking more from your pockets. Consider this. You took a floating interest rate home loan worth Rs 50 lakh in January 2022 at 8% p.a., for a period of 20 years. This brings your total monthly EMI to Rs Rs 41,822. But, as luck would (or won't) have it, RBI raised the interest rate by 250 basis points between May 2022 and February 2023, bringing it to its current status of 6.5%. Some back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that now, your home loan interest payout will also rise by a hefty 2.5%, taking the total to 10.5%. In other words, you’ll have to dish out Rs 49,919 per month as EMI. Now, won't you heave a sigh of relief if the RBI were to bring down the interest rate by say, even 50 basis points, or 0.5%? Agreed, your EMI will come down just marginally, to Rs 48,251. But look at this over a 20-year period, and you’ll see how big the difference is. <h2>Are rates set to change anytime soon?</h2>Generally, RBI hikes the repo rates if it sees inflation spiralling out of control. Then, in a bid to reduce consumer spending, it raises interest rates to make borrowing expensive. But when the apex bank sees sluggish consumption in the economy, inflation in control and wants to boost spending, it slashes down on interest rates, making it more lucrative for people to borrow. As of now, most experts are not anticipating any changes in the interest rates anytime soon. This means home loans are not getting cheaper anytime soon. The CPI data, which came out yesterday, saw inflation rise to 5.49% in September, compared to 3.65% last month. Food and beverage prices jumped to a four-month high of 8.36% in September, as opposed to a 5.3% rise in August. So a rate cut seems a no-go at the moment! Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities explains that the RBI had probably expected a hardening of inflation and that's why it chose to hold on to the rates in the monetary policy announcement last week. “Now, it seems that RBI will take a cautious stance going ahead and will not be in a hurry into rate cuts like its global peers”, he added. In all this, one thing is clear, in the grand movie of the Indian economy, the RBI has chosen stability over drama. And just like in every good Bollywood film, we're left wondering what twist the sequel will bring. Until then, it might be “The End" for rate cuts, but the show must go on for the Indian economy!

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