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Boost in domestic <keyword id="19914449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manufacturing" source="keywords">manufacturing</keyword> due to PLI (production linked incentive) schemes and increase in <keyword id="19916774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports" source="keywords">exports</keyword> on account of free trade agreements are expected to bridge the country's <keyword id="20201391" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-deficit" source="keywords">trade deficit</keyword> further, <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> said on Monday. However, it said that fluctuations in <keyword id="19936629" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="commodity-prices" source="keywords">commodity prices</keyword>, especially for critical imports like oil, metals, and agricultural products, can impact India's trade balance and inflation levels. The Survey said that though ongoing geopolitical headwinds impacted India's merchandise exports, lowering international commodity prices ensured a lower trade deficit in FY24 than in FY23. The country's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 240 billion in 2023-24 from USD 265 billion in 2022-23. It added that changes in trade policies by major trading partners or geopolitical developments can affect India's export opportunities and market access. "In the coming years, India's trade deficit is expected to decline further as the <keyword id="19981334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PLI-scheme" source="keywords">PLI scheme</keyword> is expanded and India creates a globally competitive manufacturing base in several product categories," the Survey said. It added that the recently signed FTAs (free trade agreements) are expected to increase the <keyword id="22374533" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-market-share" source="keywords">global market share</keyword> of the country's exports. The PLI scheme for sectors like mobile manufacturing, information technology (IT) hardware, pharmaceutical, telecommunications, and food product are helping to increase manufacturing and cut imports. India has implemented <keyword id="20000557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FTA" source="keywords">FTA</keyword> with Mauritius, Australia and the UAE. It added that a narrowing merchandise trade deficit and rising service exports have improved the CAD (<keyword id="20054874" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-account-deficit" source="keywords">current account deficit</keyword>), ending with a surplus of 0.6 per cent of GDP in Q4 of FY24. However, the risks to the performance of India's external sector are on the downside due to the persistence of current <keyword id="19955176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-tensions" source="keywords">geopolitical tensions</keyword> and policy uncertainty, it said. Some of the challenges listed by the survey includes fall in demand from major trading partners like the US, rise in trade cost, and volatility in commodity prices. Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal have resulted in trade flows being re-routed, increasing journey time and costs. India's merchandise trade relies heavily on maritime trade, so disturbances in major shipping routes can impact its economy. "It is critical to explore what these changing paradigms mean for India. Policies need to be a mix that straddles security concerns with economic considerations," the survey said, adding India's push towards manufacturing in complex and niche sectors through schemes such as PLI and Make in India aims to balance these goals. Further, the survey emphasised on the need to focus on improving India's competitiveness in many product areas. For example, it said, India has tremendous potential in becoming a large global exporter in agricultural commodities. Fostering stronger regional trade ties and adding more markets for Indian goods will help mitigate global demand fluctuations. "In an era when global economic growth is likely to be buffeted by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, growing India's exports of goods and services will be a stiffer challenge than before," it cautioned. Commenting on this, Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India, said that despite global uncertainties, India's exports are recording positive growth rates. "That shows the resilience of our exports amidst global uncertainties," she said, adding, "by transforming our export basket and focusing on higher margins and value addition across various sectors, India will easily achieve its ambition of USD 2 trillion in exports by 2030-31."

India's trade deficit expected to decline further: Economic Survey

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Food wars will rise amid trade barriers and climate risk, Olam Agri's CEO warned.</li><li>Food inflation has already gone up from a growing supply-demand imbalance.</li></ul>"Food wars" are looming over global stability, as trade barriers and the climate crisis strain supply, the head of trading firm Olam Agri warned.In comments first reported by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/64ee15d1-c61e-4f48-b6ce-58956176beb0">The Financial Times</a>, CEO Sunny Verghese signaled that rising restrictions on trade are already amplifying food inflation, leading to an exaggerated demand-supply imbalance."We have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars over food and water," he said during last week's Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference.Though agricultural commodity traders took the blame for rising food costs after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the CEO pushed back. Instead, the outbreak of non-tariff trade barriers was likely the chief culprit, with 1,266 curbs proliferating that year.While the exchange of commodities grew tighter, demand swelled among wealthier economies, which focused on creating surplus stocks.Higher prices not only amplified a cost-of-living crisis in certain regions but growing food scarcity since COVID-19 has created insecurities in poorer regions, the outlet said.At the same time, a hotter climate has exacerbated challenges in agricultural production, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-copper-oil-cocoa-commodities-inflation-interest-rates-economy-2024-4">spurring aggressive rallies across a number of commodities</a>, including <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/cocoa-price">cocoa</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coffee-price">coffee</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/sugar-price">sugar</a>.According to Verghese this, too, is causing global governments to turn towards protectionism, in an effort to shield domestic markets. Examples include an Indonesian ban on palm oil exports and an Indian curb on rice exports."That was precisely the wrong thing," he said. "You're going to see more and more of that."In the face of climate risks, the trader pressed for the industry to get serious on taking action. For governments, carbon taxation is an appropriate policy, he argued.

Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,' according to one commodity trader

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Gold, copper, oil, and cocoa are up big as a broad takes hold in the commodities sector.</li><li>The rally is driving historic profits for the commodities trading industry.</li></ul>Not all that glitters is gold — that's because other raw materials are shining just as bright. Commodity trading has been booming in recent months, Apex Trader Funding CEO Darrell Martin told Business Insider, as everything from industrial metals to oil runs hotter:"The market volatility created by these big moves creates a ton of opportunity," he said. "It's creating a lot of volatility intraday, which is amazing for traders. It's giving them a lot of opportunities to go in and to produce income that way." Propping up the rally is big upside among a plethora of physical materials, which hast sent the commodity-based S&amp;P GSCI up 12.8% for the year, handily outpacing the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500's</a> 7% gain. According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-08/commodity-traders-rake-in-billions-in-second-blockbuster-year?srnd=undefined" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg,</a> it's sparked the most profitable period in the history of commodities trading, with the top four private trading firms netting $50 billion since 2022."This is your classic late-cycle rally in commodities," Carlyle's Jeff Currie <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uaYo0nw43uY" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told CNBC on Wednesday</a>. "We're looking at economic growth around the world, industrial production has bottomed, it's starting to become expansionary; that's against low inventories, not a lot of spare capacity."There are two key themes that are behind the high-octane run in commodities markets, market experts say. Inventory shortagesLow supply is the central issue driving gains in commodities like <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/copper-price">copper</a> and cocoa."The copper supply crisis is here," Bank of America titled a Monday note: "Tight copper mine supply is increasingly constraining refined production: the much-discussed <a href="https://africa.businessinsider.com/markets/copper-prices-could-soar-33-in-the-next-year-as-global-inventories-hit-lowest-since/2e3c17j" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of mine projects</a> is finally starting to bite." The metal is estimated to hit $5.44 a pound by 2026, the bank said, representing 27% upside from its <a href="https://commodity.com/precious-metals/copper/price/#:~:text=Today's%20copper%20market%20price%20is,prices%20like%20gold%20and%20silver." target="_blank" rel="noopener">current price of $4.28</a> per pound.So far this year, it's climbed 11.6%, a boom that both Currie and Martin associated with a post-pandemic production rebound. But in Bank of America's view, copper is also the epicenter of the energy transition, and will further benefit as artificial intelligence data centers expand. It is a similar story for cocoa, as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cocoa-prices-bitcoin-rally-commodity-markets-investors-trading-finance-chocolate-2024-3">droughts and bad harvests</a> have rocketed the ingredient to records. Over the past 12 months, cocoa futures have gained 256%, and a metric ton costs a record $10,900.Though this may seem like a bout of bad luck among producer countries, climate change may cause future agricultural shortages, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cocoa-and-coffee-prices-have-surged-climate-change-will-only-take-them-higher-d9b77e24" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Wall Street Journal</a> noted in a recent article. Coffee beans could face the same fate, with the commodity already on a tear this year. Global uncertaintiesWhile supply-demand imbalances also extend to crude, teetering macroeconomic outlooks are another factor shaping momentum in oil and gold.So far this year, the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/mining-sector-s-failure-to-seek-new-copper-jeopardizes-entire-energy-transition-71798330#:~:text=In%20the%20most%20optimistic%20scenario,to%209.9%20Mt%20in%202035." target="_blank" rel="noopener">yellow metal</a> has shot up nearly 15%, though part of its success stems from 2023 <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-outlook-rally-fed-interest-rates-bitcoin-dollar-bond-yields-2024-4">underperformance</a>, Martin said."Gold is always lagging behind. And when it finally does go, it pops big." On Friday, gold hit another all-time high of $2,424 per ounce. Sticky inflation, massive central bank buying, and geopolitical turmoil have sent the safe haven higher. For these reasons, Martin sees the price of gold quadrupling within three to five years.Other estimates haven't been so bold, but analysts such as <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-record-2025-inflation-oil-production-us-economy-2024-4">Ed Yardeni</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-forecast-outlook-spot-fed-interest-rate-cut-rosenberg-2024-4">David Rosenberg</a> expect it to climb 50% and 30% in the coming years. Yardeni also expects Brent oil to reach $100 a barrel if <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-record-2025-inflation-oil-production-us-economy-2024-4">conflict in the Middle East</a> escalates.While 2024 has been a boon for commodities traders, some warn of the macro impact of soaring prices. Market experts say that rising commodity prices will result in a new spike in inflation, dampening chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate pivot. "If they cut rates, [commodities] are going up, but they don't cut rates because commodity prices are higher," Currie said. "So from a commodity perspective, it's a win and it goes back to my point, commodities are always the best play at this point in the business cycle for that precise reason."

It's not just gold. Commodities from copper to cocoa are seeing huge gains in 2024.

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11909001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="wheat" source="Orion">Wheat</keyword> prices dropped almost 3% on Friday following media reports that <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> and <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> struck a deal on grain shipments.</li><li>The price, which hit record highs after Russia's invasion in February, is now back to pre-war levels.</li></ul>Wheat prices tumbled on Friday after Ukraine and Russia reached a deal to allow crucial grain shipments to safely leave Black Sea ports, according to media reports, potentially alleviating a brewing global <keyword id="13544066" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="food-crisis" source="Orion">food crisis</keyword>. US wheat futures dropped almost 3% to a five-month low of $786 per bushel, meaning the price has unwound almost all of its "war gains." Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, triggering a 70% surge in the price of wheat to a record high of over $1,300 in the two weeks that followed. The two countries together account for a quarter of the world's wheat exports. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62254597">BBC</a> said <keyword id="11998211" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="turkey" source="Orion">Turkey</keyword> successfully brokered a deal between the two sides.Drought across key growing regions like the United States, India, and Canada earlier in the year threatened to further squeeze availability of wheat and other <keyword id="12168891" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="grains" source="Orion">grains</keyword>, putting millions around the world at grave risk of hunger. Some countries, such as India, instituted export bans to stave off unrest at home.Food price inflation is hurting the pockets of consumers everywhere, but it is felt most acutely across the developing world, where the combination of soaring inflation and a stronger US dollar is pushing a number of countries, such as Sri Lanka, to the brink of bankruptcy. Some 20 million tonnes of grain has been held up in the Ukrainian port of Odessa, according to the BBC.Turkey has been mediating between the two sides, along with the United Nations, for the past two months to try to reach a deal to end a Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports. Moscow has said there is no blockade and any hold-up is the result of Western sanctions and mines laid at sea by Ukraine."If successful, it would further reduce the risk of a food crisis over the coming months. Ukraine, a major exporter of high-quality wheat, corn, and sunflower oil has seen its main export artery through the Black Sea blocked since March," Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen said of the deal in a recent note.Since the invasion, the wheat price has gradually subsided, having fallen some 42% since then. But US wheat futures are still 15% above where they were last year and, in Europe, the situation is more acute. Benchmark <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price">French milling wheat futures</a> are 65% higher than this time last year, and UK feed wheat is 50% pricier.Russia and Ukraine have agreed to monitor ships to and from ports including Odessa at two separate control centers — one located in Istanbul and the other on the Black Sea, the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3dc86119-e22e-4254-b8ef-44f33d5e71cf">FT</a> reported on Thursday.Turkey would inspect ships to ensure no weapons were smuggled, and Russia would guarantee ships safe passage, under the terms of the deal.The BBC quoted a US State Department spokesman as saying the government welcomed the deal but would focus on ensuring Russia implemented it."We should never have been in this position in the first place. This was a deliberate decision on the part of the Russian Federation to weaponize food," said the department's spokesman, Ned Price, according to the BBC.Ukraine is a major exporter of other important foodstuffs such as barley, corn, and sunflower oil, as well as industrial <keyword id="11895969" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities" source="Orion">commodities</keyword> like fertilizer - shortages of which have only made the pressure on farming worse - iron, coal, steel and refined petroleum products.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-expert-warns-recession-coming-60-percent-drop-2022-7">'A lot of people are just not understanding what's going on': A 30-year market vet lays out 7 reasons why a recession is imminent — and says stocks will end the sell-off down 60%</a>

Wheat prices drop to pre-war levels after Ukraine and Russia strike deal to unblock shipments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google, aka the FANG stocks, may have a new contender: <keyword id="11895969" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities" source="Orion">commodities</keyword>.</li><li>Amid <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s war on Ukraine, prices of commodities like oil, <keyword id="11896079" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword>, and wheat have surged.</li></ul>This year's hottest trades aren't in tech, meme stocks, or crypto, but in <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-goldman-cuts-sp500-price-target-commodity-recession-2022-3">commodities</a>.Amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, oil prices have jumped past $100 a barrel, gold prices have risen – breaking a touted correlation with bitcoin as a digital version of the yellow metal — and prices of commodities like wheat and other metals have also surged.And all the while, once-hot tech leaders like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google — aka the FANG stocks – have largely faltered this year. "The new FANG," NEIRG Wealth Management Founder Nick Giacoumakis told the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Ftheres-only-one-stock-market-sector-in-the-green-this-year-11647947850%3Fmod%3Dmarkets_lead_pos4">Wall Street Journal</a>, "is going to be <keyword id="12233232" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fuel" source="Orion">fuel</keyword>, <keyword id="11963490" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="agriculture" source="Orion">agriculture</keyword>, natural resources, and gold." The wealth manager did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.In its report, the Journal noted that among the 25 top performers on the S&amp;P 500 this year, 17 come from the <keyword id="11917806" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy" source="Orion">energy</keyword> sector. That includes Occidental Petroleum, which has rallied more than 60%, and Halliburton, which has risen about 40%. Oil companies Conocophillips, Exxon Mobil, Hess and Devon, are also among the best performers.When Russia attacked Ukraine last month, the West reacted with a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fm-freezing-currency-reserves-was-thievery-unexpected-2022-3">bevy of sanctions</a> that have crippled Putin's economy and sent shockwaves through global <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-china-europe-embargo-supply-ukraine-war-2022-3">Russian oil</a>, for its part, has been largely sidelined, causing global benchmark crude futures to surge with even higher prices likely to come, according to some experts. Russia is also one of the world's largest coal producers, prompting high prices of the commodity.Meanwhile, futures of agriculture products like <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/wheat-prices-today-limit-up-russia-ukraine-invasion-bread-basket-2022-3">wheat</a> have also been flying, as Ukraine – which has been dubbed the bread basket of Europe — is focused on defending itself against Russian soldiers.Amid the turmoil, traders have turned to gold, which has long been considered to be a safe-haven for risk-averse investors. And with Russia also a top producer of metals, prices of aluminum, copper, nickel and others have jumped as well.

The 'new FANG' trade will be in commodities amid market turmoil sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine, says wealth manager

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Prices of major <keyword id="11895969" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities" source="Orion">commodities</keyword> surged as Russia's invasion of Ukraine fueled fears of supply disruptions</li><li>Coal, nickel and wheat rose as traders sought alternative supplies after Western <keyword id="12754126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sanctions" source="Orion">sanctions</keyword> hit Russia.</li></ul>Commodities from coal and oil, to nickel and aluminium are skyrocketing this week, as traders scramble to find alternative sources of supplies of raw materials in light of hefty sanctions on Russia that could ultimately cut off its exports.Russia is a key exporter of vital commodities, such as nickel, for stainless steel production; coal, oil and gas, as well as palladium for the manufacture of autocatalysts, and wheat. Although there have been no direct embargoes on its exports at this time, commodity traders in Europe are rushing to secure supplies from elsewhere to avoid getting stuck with cargoes they may not be able to sell on if Western pressure on Moscow ratchets higher, analysts have said.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/realtime-chart/wheat-price">Wheat</a> surged to its highest since mid-2008, gaining 6% on the day to reach $1,125 a bushel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price">coal</a> jumped 10% to a record high above $400 per tonne on Thursday. Benchmark natural gas prices hit record highs earlier on Thursday, bolstered by the growing concern over possible disruption to the flow of gas from Russia, which supplies roughly 40% of European Union demand. Although supply through the pipeline, which crosses Ukraine, has continued unabated since the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, according to data from pipeline operator <a href="https://www.nord-stream.info/">NordStream,</a> prices have soared."European coal and gas prices trade up more than 85% since Russia attacked Ukraine and it highlights the risk of supply disruptions for both," <a href="https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take-mar-3-2022-03032022">said</a> Saxo Bank's strategy team.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-russia-ukraine-biden-energy-sanctions-opec-output-plan-2022-3">Crude oil</a> has soared to almost $120 a barrel as a result of the squeeze on <keyword id="11917806" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="energy" source="Orion">energy</keyword> supplies, hitting its highest since 2014. Russia supplies roughly 10% of the world's crude and, right now, is hard-pressed to find any traders to buy its cargoes."Very few trading, shipping and insurance companies will be prepared to take the risk of dealing with cargoes from Russia, fearing either physical attack, payment issues because of financial sanctions, the risk of non-delivery if further measures are enacted against Russia, and even public and investor backlash for continuing to do business with a country now largely viewed as conducting an illegal war," Reuters commodities columnist Clyde Russell <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-crisis-will-disrupt-crude-coal-lng-flows-even-without-sanctions-russell-2022-02-25/">said</a> in a column last week.Beyond the energy complex, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/realtime-chart/nickel-price">nickel</a> futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed 8.94% to $2,820 ton, the highest level in over a decade, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/aluminum-price">aluminum</a> futures rose 4.09% to $3,715 a tonne. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/palladium-price">Palladium,</a> a precious metal used predominantly in the production of catalytic converters, jumped 3.04% to $2,750 per ounce on Thursday, near last May's record above $3,000. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> meanwhile rose 0.74% to $1,935 an ounce, buoyed by investor demand for <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-surges-highest-level-over-a-year-russia-attacks-ukraine-2022-2">safe-haven</a> assets."There seems to be no end to the rally in <keyword id="11895968" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="metals" source="Orion">metals</keyword> prices," strategists at Commerzbank said.

Commodities from coal to nickel soar as traders shun Russia exports ahead of possible supply disruptions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has been quietly pushing companies to ramp up Russian fertilizer trade as a global food crisis looms, Bloomberg reports.</li><li>This year, Russian fertilizer <keyword id="12534666" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="exports" source="Orion">exports</keyword> have fallen 24%, per the report. </li></ul>The US wants companies to ramp up purchases of Russian fertilizer as global food costs rise and shortages loom, according to a Monday <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a> report.Sources told Bloomberg that the government is quietly pushing companies to buy and carry more <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>n fertilizer. <keyword id="12754126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sanctions" source="Orion">Sanctions</keyword> fears have created a supply shortage and have fueled a global food crisis, and the US is moving to alleviate pressure with the United Nations by boosting deliveries of fertilizer, grain, and other supplies from Russia. This year, Russian fertilizer exports have dropped 24%, per Bloomberg data. Russia and Ukraine together account for a quarter of global grains trade. The challenge the US faces is that it must balance putting more pressure on Moscow while also limiting repercussions for the global economy and the world's food supply, which relies on a range of products from Russia. The US and EU have included fertilizer exemptions in their sanctions on Russia, per the report, which allow trade to continue flowing for the key commodity. According to Russia's Grain Union, <keyword id="11909001" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="wheat" source="Orion">wheat</keyword> exports doubled in May. At the same time, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade?srnd=premium">Bloomberg</a> reports that over 25 million tons of grain, sunflower oil, and other goods are stuck in Ukraine due to security concerns.While Western officials have called out the Kremlin for using food as a weapon in preventing Ukraine from exporting, Russia has said it hasn't attacked any ports, instead pointing to shipping disruptions resulting from sanctions.

The US wants companies to buy Russian fertilizer as agricultural commodities markets spiral and a global food crisis looms: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Corn prices have surged to an 8-year high as dry <keyword id="6359992" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="weather">weather</keyword> hits crops around the world.</li><li>Pressure is also building in the <keyword id="31671" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets">markets</keyword> for <keyword id="53580" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="soybeans">soybeans</keyword>, wheat and even cheese.</li><li>Analysts say the rise in crop prices could lead to higher-than-expected inflation.</li></ul><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/corn-price">Corn prices</a> have soared to a new eight-year high as dry weather around the world hits crops and weighs on supply, just as demand is picking up as economies reopen.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price">Soybean</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/wheat-price">wheat</a> prices are also trading at around 8-year highs, while traders are piling into US cheese futures in anticipation of restaurants reopening."Grain and soft <keyword id="35149" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodities">commodities</keyword> remain on fire, as the immediate supply outlook continues to tighten on a combination of drought in Brazil, cold weather slowing the planting progress in the US and surging overseas demand, especially from China," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.The price of corn for delivery in May rose 2.5% to $6.98 a bushel on Tuesday morning, according to Bloomberg data, having earlier risen to $7.20.Corn rose so sharply on Monday that the Chicago Board of Trade commodities exchange had to limit trading. Prices are up around 40% so far in 2021 to their highest level since early 2013, according to Bloomberg data.Elsewhere in the agriculture market, soybean prices have risen for 10 sessions in a row, while wheat prices have climbed more than 25% in April, according to Hansen.Prices are shooting up due in large part to dry weather around the globe, particularly in Brazil, which is expected to limit the amount of crops that can be produced.Dry conditions in the US Midwest are also adding to the pressure in the market, at a time when analysts expect demand for perishable goods to rise as <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-charts-us-recovery-hotels-restaurants-hiring-april-data-2021-4">economies come out of coronavirus lockdowns</a>.In the US, traders in cheese futures are increasing their holdings in anticipation of higher demand over the coming months. Traders now hold contracts worth 64 million pounds of block cheddar, up from around 9 million at the start of the year, according to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/03f3eb4f-d794-4717-b421-a8f97c04c276">Financial Times</a>, which cited CME data.Hansen said the rise in agricultural prices could add to worrying inflationary pressures in the economy."Adding these gains to already elevated fuel prices and surging industrial metals, it raises questions about central bankers' commonly shared view that rising consumer prices will be transitory and, as such, should not be a major concern," he said.

Corn soars to 8-year high as dry global weather hits crops - while soybeans and wheat are also booming

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hog prices have fallen 14% after a wild run-up over the past year.</li><li><keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="China">China</keyword>'s <keyword id="6355165" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="agriculture">agriculture</keyword> ministry said hog herds reached 98.4% of 2017 levels, before African swine fever ravaged the pig population.</li><li>A full rebound hadn't been expected until 2023, and the good news has triggered panic selling.</li></ul>Hog futures contracts have fallen 14% in June as China's herds recover from a 2018 outbreak of African swine fever more quickly than expected, according to the<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hog-prices-sink-as-china-rebuilds-herd-11624959001?mod=hp_lead_pos3"> Wall Street Journal</a>.Cooling hog prices come after a wild run-up over the past year. Between April 2020 and this month's highs, futures contracts surged 183%. Consumers have begun to feel the pinch, with <keyword id="79111" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="pork">pork</keyword> prices at US grocery stores rising 5.4% year-on-year in May, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rising-beef-prices-squeeze-carnivores-buenos-aires-california-2021-05-27/">according to NielsenIQ</a>.Earlier this month, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL2N2NY0C6">agriculture ministry said</a> hog herds grew 23.5% in May year-on-year, reaching 98.4% of 2017 stocks. The swine fever outbreak ravaged China's pig population, 40% of which died off or were culled in 2019. The country produces half the world's pork.As more supply has come online, Chinese domestic hog prices have fallen precipitously, in part because the pork bounceback has come ahead of schedule, according to the Journal. A full rebound hadn't been expected until 2023, and the good news has triggered panic selling.The Journal report threw some cold water on the reliability of Chinese data, quoting a trader who advised watching hog farmers' behavior - such as grain imports used for hog feed - rather than government numbers. China has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-statistics/china-to-crack-down-on-fake-data-corruption-statistics-chief-idUSBREA1B0H520140212">long grappled</a> with inaccurate data reporting, sometimes owing to falsification by local officials polishing up their records.

Hog prices are cooling after a blistering 183% rally as China announces herds have recovered from African swine fever

‘If I had Apple and Tencent, I would have sold them by now,’ says Jim Rogers

<ul><li>The amendment to the <keyword id="95281" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Essential-Commodities-Act">Essential Commodities Act</keyword> was introduced as a part of the slew of reforms that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman introduced in May 2020 as relief measures for COVID-19 pandemic.</li><li>Through the amendments, better price realisation will be made possible for <keyword id="45092" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="farmers">farmers</keyword> and cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, pulses, onions and potatoes will be deregulated. </li></ul>The monsoon session of the parliament will begin on September 14, and one of the amendments that will be up for discussion is for the Essential Commodities Act. Introduced as a part of the slew of reforms that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman introduced in May 2020 as relief measures for the COVID-19 pandemic and the ₹20 trillion stimulus package, the government had said it was a landmark decision which would help India’s farmers. The amendment was a step towards creating ‘One India, One <keyword id="6355165" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="agriculture">agriculture</keyword> market’. The Essential Commodities Act (ECA) was passed by the Union Cabinet in June and is now an <keyword id="152892" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ordinance">ordinance</keyword>. The ECA will lapse if it doesn’t get cleared by the Parliament in this session. Amendments to the Essential Commodities Act Through the amendments, better price realisation will be made possible for farmers and cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, pulses, onions, and potatoes will be deregulated. Stock limits will be imposed only under exceptional circumstances like national calamities, famine with a surge in prices. No such stock limit shall apply to processors or value chain participants, or any exporter subject to export demand. According to PRS, a stock limit may only be imposed if there is: (i) a 100% increase in the retail price of horticultural produce; and (ii) a 50% increase in the retail price of non-perishable agricultural food items. What is referred to as Essential Commodity? Currently, essential commodities are defined as per the schedule within the act. The schedule entails drugs (fertilisers – inorganic, organic or mixed), petroleum and petroleum products, food products, raw jute and jute textiles, seeds of food crops, fruits, vegetables, and cattle fodder, jute seed, cottonseed. During this COVID-19 pandemic, face masks and hand sanitizers were added to the list. This was due to the scarcity of the products, and as there were cases of a price increase. However, deeming them essential the government notified that their prices cannot be increased. The notification was in force until June 30, and the two items <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/hc-rejects-plea-seeking-to-classify-masks-sanitisers-as-essential-commodities/articleshow/77611390.cms">aren’t classified</a> as essential anymore, once the availability in the market improved. What is the Essential Commodities Act initially implemented in 1955? The act was brought into place for the control of the production, supply and distribution of, and trade and commerce, in certain commodities. The act then allowed the government of India to control the price of essential commodities, and also decide to increase or decrease the supply of the product in the market. It also gives the government to regulate through licences, permits or otherwise the storage, transport, distribution, disposal, acquisition, use or consumption of any essential commodity. However, in recent years the Essential Commodities Act has come under a lot of debate. It has also been called ‘<a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/draconian-essential-commodities-act-needs-to-go-if-india-wants-to-raise-farm-incomes/183006/">draconian</a>’ by certain sections as it gives the government complete control. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/the-epidemic-diseases-amendment-ordinance-protecting-the-corona-warriors/articleshow/78038114.cms">The Epidemic Diseases (Amendment) Ordinance — protecting the ‘corona warriors’</a>

Monsoon session of Parliament: All you need to know about the Essential Commodities ordinance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Liquidity in <keyword id="12705191" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="commodity" source="Orion">commodity</keyword> <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> is "collapsing," said <keyword id="6361649" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="goldman-sachs" source="Orion">Goldman Sachs</keyword>' head of commodity research.</li><li>This creates greater volatility in the market that further weakens liquidity, making volatility even higher, Jeff Currie said.</li></ul>Commodity markets continue to see huge moves as conflict rages on in <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword>, driving crosscurrents in liquidity and volatility, according to the head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie. "Liquidity in these markets [is] collapsing across <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword>, gas, metals, agriculture," he told <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-MZXxuwfeI&amp;ab_channel=CNBCTelevision">CNBC</a> on Tuesday. "Part of that is higher volatility discourages investors and market participants, and then the liquidity drops off and volatility gets higher."Worries about Russian supply shortages due to Western sanctions as well as self-sanctioning by companies, have <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-markets-today-commodities-nickel-oil-russia-shares-rally-trade-2022-3">fueled rallies</a> in commodities.Turmoil in commodity markets was most recently underscored Tuesday, when the London Metal Exchange suspended trading in <keyword id="13245847" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nickel" source="Orion">nickel</keyword> as the price <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/nickel-price-russia-ukraine-war-short-squeeze-lme-suspends-trading-2022-3">spiked more than 100%</a> to top $100,000 a ton.While there's a bullish story to nickel because of its use in green-energy technology and electric vehicles, Currie said margin calls that forced short-sellers to cover their positions created a "vicious" upside."A big Chinese producer who was short out on the nickel curve had a margin call, and as they tried to cover those positions and buy it back it created a huge spike in nickel price," he said. But this is not a new phenomenon. A similar dynamic happened in the oil market in 2008 when oil popped to nearly $150 as producers liquidated their short positions, Curried noted."What makes this one different is the magnitude of it," he said.

You Searched For "agriculture commodities" and got 12 results

India's trade deficit expected to decline further: Economic Survey

PTI

Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,' according to one commodity trader

Filip De Mott

It's not just gold. Commodities from copper to cocoa are seeing huge gains in 2024.

Filip De Mott

Wheat prices drop to pre-war levels after Ukraine and Russia strike deal to unblock shipments

Amanda Cooper

The 'new FANG' trade will be in commodities amid market turmoil sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine, says wealth manager

Natasha Dailey

Commodities from coal to nickel soar as traders shun Russia exports ahead of possible supply disruptions

Hamza Fareed Malik

The US wants companies to buy Russian fertilizer as agricultural commodities markets spiral and a global food crisis looms: report

Phil Rosen

Corn soars to 8-year high as dry global weather hits crops - while soybeans and wheat are also booming

Harry Robertson

Hog prices are cooling after a blistering 183% rally as China announces herds have recovered from African swine fever

Ethan Wu

‘If I had Apple and Tencent, I would have sold them by now,’ says Jim Rogers

Rounak Jain

Monsoon session of Parliament: All you need to know about the Essential Commodities ordinance

BI India Bureau

Liquidity in commodity markets is 'collapsing' and volatility is making it worse, says Goldman Sachs' head of commodity research

Phil Rosen

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