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<ul><li>If Vodafone has to pay up $4 billion, it might not be able to survive, say analysts. </li><li>If the market ends in duopoly, there could be a ‘real’ tariff hike in the offing which will spoil the cheap data party for the market. </li><li>India has 581 million data subscribers and many of them consider data a utility. </li></ul>This might be the last year that Indians can stream movies on mobile phones with reckless abandon. Everyone has expected Jio to increase tariffs at “some point in time”. But yesterday’s Supreme Court verdict on adjusted gross revenue (ADR) has hastened it. It means Airtel and Vodafone have to cough up over ₹50,000 crore and will definitely weaken them. What is good news for Jio could also be bad news for customers. There are two possible scenarios from here. If DoT decides to waive the penalties and interests that these telcos have to pay, then Vodafone might survive. If that happens, then Jio will continue with its plan to acquire 500 million subscribers in all and initiate a tariff hike in another year, as per Spark Capital’s predictions. A real tariff hike could hit telecom customers This will also be a ‘real’ tariff hike which means Jio might not just cover the 30% price gap it has with other telecom players, it might go ahead and increase more. For one, Airtel and Vodafone had launched 4G data services at ‘introductory prices’ when the market growth was not as fast. The entry of Jio with ‘cheap’ plans has changed that. Now India has 581 million data subscribers and consumption is also growing indicating an ‘addiction’. It means, the market is just right for a price hike. If Jio rises prices, others will follow suit. A dangerous duopoly might hurt Indian consumers In the second scenario, DoT might not waive tariffs and penalties turning India into a ‘dangerous’ duopoly with only Jio and Airtel left. If Vodafone has to pay up $4 billion, it might not be able to survive, say analysts. In this scenario, Jio will race faster to the finish line as a large number of subscribers are up for grabs. As per the research report, Jio could get a tad more ambitious and increase its subscriber acquisition number to 600 million or more. It would also provide it with around 50-55% of market share and it would provide it disproportionate power to price it as it wants. But these price hikes may be delayed by another year so that Jio has acquire an extra 150 million users. Then again, it might turn vigorous. The other player Airtel will also price aggressively going ahead, bringing India data prices on par with international levels—which will make it unaffordable to the many who enjoy it now.

Whether you use Jio, Airtel, Vodafone-Idea, get ready to pay more for mobile services— sooner than later

<ul><li>The 14 year old battle on defining ADR will cost Airtel and Vodafone-Idea over ₹50,000 crore in penalties and interests.</li><li>The order also technically affects 13 other telecom companies which have ceased to exist.</li><li>While a few filed for bankruptcy, others have simply shut down operations. </li></ul>It is not just Bharti Airtel and Vodafone-Idea that are affected by the Supreme Court order which went in favour of the telecom department. Ideally, other than these two companies – which were three earlier–there were 13 others who could have been affected by the order, if they did survive. Fortunately for them and unfortunately for DoT – they did not. As much as ₹38,000 crore that the telecom department is owed can never be recovered, according to a report by Spark Capital. “Recovery is unlikely from bankrupt companies given banks are already taking a haircut on such telcos,” Nitin Soni, director of corporate at Fitch Ratings told Business Insider India. One of such is Reliance Communications which is now undergoing bankruptcy proceedings. It is the only telecom company for whom the change in definition of Adjusted Gross Revenue (ADR) is known along with penalties---at over ₹16,000 crores. However, since this order came much after it went into bankruptcy, there is no way could recover it. Aircel has been fighting a losing battle with its own debt and inability to keep up its operations. Just last year, the company became defunct and filed for bankruptcy. But the company was once the market leader in Tamil Nadu and also expanded to 6 other circles. But it was hit by a controversy over its takeover by Malaysian company Maxis Communications and was heavily investigated by the CBI. By 2012, it had started scaling down its operations owing to excessive competition among other hurdles. It had tried to merge itself with many operators including Sistema, Airtel and RCom but those deals never took off. The next in line is BPL Communications which unlike other telecom companies, died a natural death. Its held licence only for the Mumbai circle which expired in 2014. While it did consider re-applying for it and also merging itself with Airtel, that was not to be. It simply stalled operations and allowed its users to port out. DoT is getting nothing from it, as no traces of this company exists now. There are many others which have been protesting against DoT’s move to charge ADR on all the revenues of a telecom company instead of those which centric to telecom operations. Some of them are listed entities like Tata Teleservices Maharashtra, and others like Tata Teleservices which also includes Tata Docomo and Tata Indicom. But these companies have since merged with Airtel and the extent of their liability and ability to pay up is not known.

Airtel and Voda-Idea could pay DoT, but what about ₹38,000 crore from defunct telcos?

<ul><li>Indian benchmark indices <keyword id="6484188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sensex" source="Orion">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="2931774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty50" source="Orion">Nifty50</keyword> are likely to open in the green on Monday amid mixed global cues.</li><li><keyword id="90570" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sgx-nifty" source="Orion">SGX Nifty</keyword>, an early indicator of how the markets may perform, was down 0.08% or 14 points early in the morning today.</li><li><keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>, ITC, Vodafone Idea are amongst the stocks in focus on Monday.</li></ul>Indian benchmark indices Sensex and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword>50 are likely to open in the green on Monday amid mixed global cues. SGX Nifty, an early indicator of how the markets may perform, was down 0.08% or 14 points early in the morning today. Earlier on Friday, both the benchmark indices closed in the green led by financial services and auto stocks, capping off a week of volatile movements. While the 30-stock Sensex closes 2.42% up in the last week, the 50-stock Nifty50 gained 1%. “Indian markets could open flat, in line with mixed Asian markets today and despite lower US markets on Friday,” said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC securities. Global markets tumble on strong jobs data in the US Markets in the US and Asia tumbled on strong jobs and other economic data in the US. Heightened geopolitical concerns between the US and China also made markets in Asia jittery, after the US downed an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Strong jobs data in the US sparked concerns of interest rate hikes by the Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.38%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined 1.04%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.59%. In Asia, markets declined amid concerns of rate hikes continuing further amid strong jobs data in the US and elsewhere. While the Hang Seng index declined 2%, the Taiwan Weighted index fell 1.08% and Shanghai Composite was down 0.6%. On the other hand, Nikkei 225 was up 1.07%. <keyword id="73648" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stocks-to-watch" source="Orion">Stocks to watch</keyword> State Bank of India: The lender reported 68% on year surge in net profit for December quarter at ₹14,205 crore owing to lower provisions and higher interest income. It is the bank’s highest ever quarterly net profit. ITC: The FMCG to cigarette conglomerate reported 21% on year rise in net profit to ₹5,031 crore for December quarter while revenue rose 2.3% to ₹16,226 crore aided by cigarettes, FMCG, hotels and paper segments. Meanwhile, operating margin expanded 620 basis points from last year. Vodafone Idea: The centre has approved the conversion of the telecom operator’s dues linked to interest on spectrum and adjusted grow revenue (ADR) worth ₹16,133 crore into equity. With this, the government owns 35.8% stake in the company becoming the largest shareholder. Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Ambuja Cements: NSE and BSE have put all three companies under its short term additional surveillance measure frameworks from today February 6. Tata Power: The company reported 91% on year growth in consolidated net profit at ₹1,052 crore for December quarter while revenue grew 30% on year to ₹14,339 crore. One 97 Communications (Paytm): The fintech company narrowed its net loss to ₹392 crore as against ₹778 crore last year while revenue grew 42% on year to ₹2,062 crore for December quarter. InterGlobe Aviation: After three consecutive loss making quarters, Indigo's profit has risen to ₹1,422 crore for Q3 FY23 as against ₹129 crore last year. Earnings today: Tata Steel, Adani Transmission, LIC Housing Finance, Easy Trip Planners, Infibeam Avenues, Suven Pharmaceuticals, JK Paper, among others. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/adanis-stock-rout-can-impact-its-ability-to-raise-capital-or-refinance-debt-says-moodys/articleshow/97582403.cms">Adani’s stock rout can impact its ability to raise capital or refinance debt, says Moody’s</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/mens-apparel-brand-snitch-sews-all-sharks-together-gives-king-of-bling-anupam-mittal-his-own-fashion-line/articleshow/97576836.cms">Men’s apparel brand Snitch sews all sharks together – Gives ‘King of Bling’ Anupam Mittal his own fashion line</a>

Sensex, Nifty50 likely to open lower amid mixed global cues: SBI, ITC, Vodafone Idea among stocks in focus

<ul><li>Jio shot off a letter to COAI breaking the myth of doom and gloom in the sector.</li><li>Jio blamed Airtel and Vodafone-Idea of not sufficiently investing in network expansion.</li><li>It accused COAI of being a mouthpiece of the two operators and not an industry body.</li></ul><keyword id="3820" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mukesh-Ambani">Mukesh Ambani</keyword>’s telecom battle just escalated from tariff war a war of words. After the Supreme Court verdict which would lead to top players Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea shelling out as much as ₹92,000 crore – an industry association COAI came to their support. The Cellular Operators Association of India warned that the telecom sector would turn into a monopoly. And Jio is not impressed. It shot off a letter to COAI breaking the myth of doom and gloom in the sector. It said not that not only can they pay up the dues, but also blamed them from not sufficiently investing to keep up with the sector. “These operators anyways were not investing sufficiently in the sector and have been shedding crocodile tears by claiming financial stress for a long time now and have not shown any inclination to modernize the networks,” said Jio in a letter to the COAI, making it clear to the telecom department that it does not agree with COAI views on the industry. 
 
 
 
 
 
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 Jio also foresaw that in an event when the players fail to pay up the aggregate gross revenue (AGR) dues as per the new calculation – which includes non-telecom revenue – will not result in a monopoly. That’s because Jio is expecting two state-owned players—BSNL and MTNL which are unable to pay salaries to their employees—too keep the competition high in the sector. The fact that the industry body sought a bailout package from the government over these dues, irked Jio immensely. “The financial difficulties of these operators are an effect of their own commercial decisions (tariff cuts) and government should not be obliged to bail them out for their own commercial failure and financial mismanagement,” Jio said. As Vodafone and Airtel continue to saddle debt after Jio launched in 2016, Jio last week announced that it will turn debt free as it has been spun off into a different entity from Reliance Industries which includes energy, retail, media and other businesses. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/reliance-jio-airtel-and-vodafone-idea-may-raise-tariff-soon/articleshow/71757089.cms">Whether you use Jio, Airtel, Vodafone-Idea, get ready to pay more for mobile services— sooner than later</a>

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Whether you use Jio, Airtel, Vodafone-Idea, get ready to pay more for mobile services— sooner than later

Katya Naidu

Airtel and Voda-Idea could pay DoT, but what about ₹38,000 crore from defunct telcos?

Katya Naidu

Sensex, Nifty50 likely to open lower amid mixed global cues: SBI, ITC, Vodafone Idea among stocks in focus

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Bhakti

Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone-Idea are down to smack talk as the great Indian telecom race enters knockout round

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