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New Delhi, The government's fiscal deficit at Rs 11 lakh crore at January end touched 63.6 per cent of the revised annual target, according to the official data released on Thursday. In the corresponding period last year, the fiscal deficit or gap between the expenditure and revenue was 67.8 per cent of Revised Estimates (RE) of the Union Budget 2022-23. For 2023-24, the government's fiscal deficit is estimated at Rs 17.35 lakh crore or 5.8 per cent of the GDP. The government's total receipts stood at Rs 22.52 lakh crore (81.7 per cent of corresponding RE 2023-24 of total receipts) as of January 2024, according to the data released by <keyword id="20408086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="controller-general-of-accounts" source="keywords">Controller General of Accounts</keyword> (<keyword id="20408087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cga" source="keywords">CGA</keyword>). This comprised Rs 18.8 lakh crore tax revenue (net), Rs 3.38 lakh crore of non-tax revenue and Rs 34,219 crore of non-debt capital receipts. Non-debt capital receipts consist of the recovery of loans and miscellaneous capital receipts. The total expenditure incurred by the Centre was Rs 33.54 lakh crore (74.7 per cent of corresponding RE 2023-24), out of which Rs 26.33 lakh crore is on revenue account and Rs 7.2 lakh crore on capital account. As per the CGA data, Rs 8,20,250 crore has been transferred to state governments as devolution of share of taxes by the central government up to this period, which is Rs 1,52,480 crore higher than the previous year. Out of the total revenue expenditure, Rs 8,21,731 crore was on account of interest payments and Rs 3,15,559 crore on major subsidies. Commenting on the data, <keyword id="20028743" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="aditi-nayar" source="keywords">Aditi Nayar</keyword>, Chief Economist, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">ICRA</keyword>, said: "While there may be some slippage in the disinvestment target and capex may trail the FY2024 RE, ICRA does not expect the revised fiscal deficit target of Rs 17.3 lakh crore for FY2024 to be breached." The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government in the interim Budget refrained from announcing populist measures, which is expected to help it trim the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of the GDP next fiscal and 4.5 per cent in FY26. The nominal GDP growth for the next financial year has been pegged at 10.5 per cent against the 11 per cent estimated earlier. The nominal GDP as per budget estimate 2024-25 has been projected at Rs 3,27,71,808 crore, assuming 10.5 per cent growth over the estimated nominal GDP of Rs 2,96,57,745 crore, as per the First Advance Estimates of FY2023-24. Helped by an improvement in tax buoyancy, the government managed to achieve a fiscal deficit of 5.8 per cent against the budget estimate of 5.9 per cent for the current financial year.

Fiscal deficit at Jan-end touches 63.6% of full year target: Govt data

Chennai, Credit rating agency <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icra" source="keywords">ICRA</keyword> on Wednesday said <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024. Further, the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated to ease to 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.4 per cent in Q2 FY2024, driven by the industrial and agriculture sectors, amid an improvement in the services sector. According to ICRA, the anticipated deterioration in the industrial sector growth in Q3 FY2024 is partly attributable to an adverse base effect and a deceleration in volume expansion even as the continued deflation in commodity prices kept profitability of some sectors favourable. Additionally, a mild 0.2 per cent contraction in the total spending of Government of India and 25 state governments (all states except <keyword id="19915575" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="arunachal-pradesh" source="keywords">Arunachal Pradesh</keyword>, <keyword id="19895061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="goa" source="keywords">Goa</keyword> and Manipur) in Q3 FY2024 is expected to have dulled the GVA growth in the quarter. "Lower volume growth for the industrial sector, flagging momentum in certain indicators of investment activity, a slowdown in Government expenditure and an uneven monsoon are expected to dampen the GDP growth to 6.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.6 per cent in Q2 FY2024," <keyword id="20028743" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="aditi-nayar" source="keywords">Aditi Nayar</keyword>, Chief Economist, Head-Research &amp; Outreachs said. ICRA estimates the industrial GVA growth to record a broad-based moderation to 8.8 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 13.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by all four sub-sectors, namely, manufacturing, electricity, construction and mining and quarrying. ICRA projects manufacturing GVA expansion at a healthy 10 per cent in Q3 FY2024, twice as high as the 4.7 per cent seen in Q1 FY2024, albeit lower than the 13.9 per cent recorded in Q2 FY2024, amid a deceleration in volume growth as reflected in the manufacturing Index of Industrial Production (IIP). Owing to the decline in output across all major kharif crops projected by the First Advance Estimates, ICRA projects the growth in agriculture, forestry, and fishing to dip to a muted 0.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 1.2 per cent in Q2 FY2024. This would be the lowest growth print for the sector since Q4 FY2019 (-0.9 per cent). In contrast to industry and agriculture, ICRA estimates the services GVA YoY growth to rise to 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 5.8 per cent in Q2 FY2024, led by trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting.

India's FY24 third quarter GDP growth seen at 6%: ICRA

<keyword id="3658" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword>'s gross <keyword id="6354679" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gst">GST</keyword> revenue collection reached a new record high of over ₹1.23 <keyword id="4049201" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="lakh-crore">lakh crore</keyword> in March 2021. The GST <keyword id="6398283" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="revenues">revenues</keyword> during March 2021 are the highest since the introduction of the tax. "In line with the trend of recovery in the GST revenues over past five months, the revenues for the month of March 2021 are 27 per cent higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year," the <keyword id="47209" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Finance-Ministry">Finance Ministry</keyword> said in a statement. "During the month, revenues from import of goods were 70 per cent higher and the revenues from domestic transaction (including import of services) are 17 per cent higher than the revenues from these sources during the same month last year." According to the statement, the gross GST revenue collected in the month of March 2021 is at a record high of ₹123,902 crore of which <keyword id="6373817" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="cgst">CGST</keyword> is ₹22,973 crore, SGST is ₹29,329 crore, <keyword id="6360947" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="IGST">IGST</keyword> is ₹62,842 crore and cess is at ₹8,757 crore. "The government has settled ₹21,879 crore to CGST and ₹17,230 crore to SGST from IGST as regular settlement. In addition, Centre has also settled ₹28,000 crore as IGST ad-hoc settlement in the ratio of 50:50 between Centre and States or UTs." "The total revenue of Centre and the states after regular and ad-hoc settlements in the month of March 2021 is ₹58,852 crore for CGST and ₹60,559 crore for the SGST. Centre has also released a compensation of ₹30,000 crore during the month of March 2021." ICRA Principal Economist <keyword id="473448" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Aditi-Nayar">Aditi Nayar</keyword> said: "The healthy GST collections in the month of March 2021, along with the additional devolution of ₹45,000 crore to the state governments for the just-concluded fiscal, confirm our view that the tax revenues in FY2021 have exceeded the 'RE'." "As a result, we continue to expect the GoI's fiscal deficit to undershoot the FY2021RE of ₹18.5 trillion, suggesting ample cash balances at the start of FY2022." Abhishek Jain, Tax Partner, EY India, said: "The all-time high record GST collections of 1.23 lakh crore and it being 27 per cent higher than last year is a significant uptick." "It clearly shows a sustained economic recovery and also is a result of GST audit closures and the Government tightening compliance and anti-evasion measures." SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/upi-crosses-5-lakh-crore-in-transaction-value-in-march/articleshow/81820799.cms">India’s digital payments soar – UPI crosses ₹5 lakh crore in transaction value in March</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/west-bengal-is-the-highest-contributor-to-small-savings-schemes/articleshow/81825902.cms">West Bengal is the highest contributor to small savings schemes – with elections underway, it could have been a trigger for the government to roll back interest rate cuts</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/revolut-india-plan-starts-with-a-25-million-investment-and-possibly-a-fintech-acquisition/articleshow/81833983.cms">Revolut’s India plan starts with a $25 million investment and possibly, a fintech acquisition</a>

India's GST revenue collection reaches new high of over ₹1.23 crore in March

"Recession in India will end latest by March" -- So what should India's budget look like?

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

The pre-budget <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="economic-survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> highlights the need for measures to boost <keyword id="19973896" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="talent" source="keywords">talent</keyword> and <keyword id="19959621" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="productivity" source="keywords">productivity</keyword> through <keyword id="19974189" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector" source="keywords">private sector</keyword> investment, experts said on Monday. Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nirmala-sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> tabled the Economic Survey for 2023-24 in Parliament. Rumki Majumdar, Economist, <keyword id="20006170" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Deloitte-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Deloitte India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Deloitte India">Deloitte India</keyword> said the Survey has highlighted measures to boost talent and productivity through private sector investment in <keyword id="20077463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skills" source="keywords">skills</keyword> (in addition to what the government is initiating), physical and digital connectivity and building state capacity and capabilities. She said <keyword id="19910977" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSMEs" source="keywords">MSMEs</keyword>, agriculture, education and <keyword id="19898684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="keywords">employment</keyword>, and upskilling as key pillars for uplifting the masses through jobs, income and skills. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head - Research &amp; Outreach, ICRA said the Survey stresses that in the medium term, growth needs to be supported by the private corporate sector as well as the state governments. On inflation, she said that "managing inflation is not just the prerogative of the RBI and its MPC, and would require active intervention by the Centre, especially in the arena of food price management. The realisation of both these paradigms is crucial to ensure an optimal growth-inflation mix over the medium term."

Survey highlights need for private investments to boost talent, productivity: Experts

The just-announced <keyword id="22906567" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Unified-Pension-Scheme" source="keywords">Unified Pension Scheme</keyword> for central <keyword id="19933272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-employees" source="keywords">government employees</keyword> will be available only for those who are currently subscribers of the New Pension Scheme (NPS), including retirees. The new scheme guarantees employees 50% of their average basic pay over the last 12 months before retirement, as a pension for a minimum qualifying service of 25 years against a market returns linked payout under the NPS. According to the scheme approved by the Union Cabinet, the pension will be proportionate for a lesser service period of up to a minimum of 10 years. Also, assured pension of Rs 10,000 per month on superannuation after a minimum of 10 years of service will be provided. The scheme has been brought out to address the concerns of government employees over NPS, which came into effect from January 1, 2004. Under the <keyword id="3246232" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Old-Pension-Scheme" source="Orion">old pension scheme</keyword> (OPS), effective before January 2004, employees got 50 % of their last drawn basic pay as pension. Unlike the old pension scheme, UPS is contributory in nature, wherein employees will be required to contribute 10% of their basic salary and dearness allowance while the employer's contribution (the central government) will be 18.5%. Under the NPS, the employer contribution is 14%, and the employee contribution is 10%. However, the eventual payout depends on the market returns on that corpus, mostly invested in government debt. Employees, under the OPS, were not required to make any contribution. They, however, contributed to the General Provident Fund (GPF). The accumulated amount, along with interest, was paid to the employee at the time of retirement. As the NPS was less attractive than the OPS, several non-BJP-ruled states decided to go back to the old pension scheme, which offered a DA-linked benefit. This prompted the Centre to constitute a committee in April 2023, under former Finance Secretary and now Cabinet Secretary-designate TV Somanathan to suggest improvement in the NPS architecture. Fulfilling the long pending demands of government employees ahead of assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, the Union Cabinet on August 24 approved the UPS, which will provide assured pension to 23 lakh eligible central government employees. Those opting for the UPS will not be able to switch back. The UPS will put an additional burden of Rs 6,250 crore on the exchequer per year. The expenditure will vary every year according to variations in the number of employees. In addition, there will be an arrear of Rs 800 crore that has to be paid under the National Pension System (NPS) to employees retiring before March 31, 2025. If these retirees opt for UPS, they will receive arrears. "UPS is being implemented by the Central Government, benefitting 23 lakh central government employees," Information &amp; Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said on X on Sunday. If states also adopt the UPS architecture, a total of over 90 lakh government employees, who are presently on NPS, would be benefitted, he added. On Sunday, Maharashtra, where assembly elections are due later in the year, became the first state to announce the adoption of the UPS for its employees. RSS-affiliate Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) said though the government has attempted to overcome the shortcomings of the NPS, there are still some issues compared to OPS. BMS will decide its future course of action only after a detailed study of the UPS after it is notified. All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC) said it is nothing but an extension of the existing NPS. The trade union expressed apprehensions that UPS will have a lot of aberrations once implemented. AITUC reiterated that it will continue to fight for the restoration of the non-contributory OPS. ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said assured pensions will add to the government's committed expenditure in the future while reducing the uncertainty for employees. "This will have to be built into the fiscal consolidation roadmap going ahead," Nayar added. The UPS reflects a thoughtful approach to long-term social security, addressing concerns about the adequacy and sustainability of pension benefits in a rapidly changing economic landscape, said Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas &amp; Co Partner Dorothy Thomas. "This move signals the government's commitment to providing robust support for its workforce, enhancing financial stability for millions of government employees across the country," Thomas said.

Over 23 lakh govt employees under NPS get option to choose unified pension scheme

<keyword id="280418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wholesale-inflation" source="Orion">Wholesale inflation</keyword> in the country surged to a 16-month high of 3.36% in June on account of rise in prices of <keyword id="21654959" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-articles" source="keywords">food articles</keyword>, especially <keyword id="19996547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetables" source="keywords">vegetables</keyword> and manufactured items. This was the fourth consecutive month when <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> witnessed an upward journey. The wholesale price index (<keyword id="19936844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI" source="keywords">WPI</keyword>) based inflation was 2.61% in May. It was (-) 4.18% in June 2023. Wholesale inflation had touched a high of 3.85% in February 2023."Positive rate of inflation in June, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the Ministry of Commerce &amp; Industry said in a statement on Monday. As per the data, inflation in food articles rose 10.87% cent in June, as against 9.82% in May. Inflation in vegetables was 38.76% during June, up from 32.42% in May. Onion inflation was at 93.35%, while potato was 66.37% in the month under review. Pulses inflation rose 21.64% in June. During the month, inflation in other food items like fruits stood at 10.14%, cereals at 9.27%, and milk at 3.37%. The up move in the WPI inflation in June 2024 was broad-based, driven by all the major segments except fuel and power, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said. Looking ahead, she said, the headline WPI inflation is expected to dip to about 2% in July 2024, driven by a favourable base, as well as some cooling in global commodity prices. With regard to oil prices, she said, the average price of the Indian basket of crude oil has been quite volatile in July 2024 so far, on the back of supply-demand mismatches, witnessing a month-on-month rise (USD 86.6/bbl up to July 11). Higher crude oil prices might exert an upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation in the ongoing month, she added. In the fuel and power basket, inflation stood at 1.03%, marginally lower than 1.35% in May. However, price rise in crude petroleum &amp; natural gas was in double digit at 12.55%during the month. In manufactured products, inflation was at 1.43% in June, higher than 0.78% in May. The rise in June WPI was in line with the <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> data for the month. Retail inflation rose to a four-month high of 5.1% in June, data released last week showed. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) mainly takes into account retail inflation while framing the monetary policy.

WPI inflation surges to 16-month high of 3.36% in June on costlier vegetables

In a rather dampened <keyword id="19915531" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forecast" source="keywords">forecast</keyword> for the Indian economy, <keyword id="19908266" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICRA" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="ICRA" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="ICRA">ICRA</keyword> has forecast a sharp <keyword id="20637625" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="slowdown" source="keywords">slowdown</keyword> in India's <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword>. The credit rating agency has projected a year-on-year expansion of 6.0% in <keyword id="22106354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Q1-FY2025" source="keywords">Q1 FY2025</keyword> — the lowest in the last six quarters. In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well. Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade. However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey. “The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half. The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA. The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies. ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown. Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth. In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024. With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies. However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/digital-initiatives-to-triple-indian-retail-borrowing-to-usd-2-5-trillion-by-2030-sp-global/articleshow/112263945.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&amp;P Global</a>

ICRA forecasts slowdown in India's economy: GDP growth expected to hit six-quarter low in Q1 FY2025

The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one presented in February, indicating the government's strong commitment to move along the <keyword id="20099794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-prudence" source="keywords">fiscal prudence</keyword> path, said experts on Tuesday. According to the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> 2024-25 presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, the total expenditure in Budget Estimates (BE) 2024-25 is estimated at Rs 48,20,512 crore of which total <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> is Rs 11,11,111 crore. The total expenditure in the Interim Budget presented in February was estimated at Rs 47,65,768 crore of which total capital expenditure was Rs 11.11 lakh crore. Debadatta Chand, Managing Director &amp; CEO, <keyword id="19920717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bank-of-Baroda" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bank of Baroda" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bank of Baroda">Bank of Baroda</keyword>, said the Union Budget complements the main takeaways from the Economic Survey and focusses clearly on medium term development of the economy. "The overall size of the budget has remained almost unchanged from the interim one. The budget has shown strong intent on moving along the fiscal prudence path and targeted the <keyword id="19942084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-deficit" source="keywords">fiscal deficit</keyword> at 4.9 per cent for the year," he said. The said action will keep the growth steady as well as robust not only for economy but also banking. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Limited, said the budget has kept the capital expenditure unchanged and pared the fiscal deficit to 4.9 per cent of GDP. "The anticipated reiteration of the reduction in the fiscal deficit to below 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY2026 is welcome. Interestingly, the new medium term fiscal consolidation path has been linked to a reduction in the debt/GDP ratio instead of continued compression of the fiscal deficit/GDP ratio," she said. Buoyed by improvement in revenue collection, the government has lowered fiscal deficit target to 4.9 per cent for the current <keyword id="19910979" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-year" source="keywords">financial year</keyword> as against 5.1 per cent estimated in February's interim budget. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader Economic Advisory, PwC India, said that fiscal prudence is the highlight of the full Union Budget 2024-25. The government has gone with realistic projections on its revenue and expenditure estimates and refrained from announcing overly populist measures. "The majority of the allocations, including the capex allocation, are as outlined in the interim budget, thus providing continuity. The capex being kept at INR 11.11 trillion was expected, given that the ability to consume this allocation is limited due to disruption from the elections in the first quarter and the second quarter being typically slowed down by the monsoons," Banerjee said. Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) President Ranjeet Kumar Agarwal said the government has announced five schemes to facilitate employment and skilling for 4.1 crore youth over the next five years with a central outlay of Rs 2 lakh crore. "This is a welcome step that will create a skilled workforce to address the existing deficit and generate <keyword id="19972727" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment-opportunities" source="keywords">employment opportunities</keyword>. Additionally, financial support for loans up to Rs 10 lakh for higher education will help students pursue higher education and acquire skills," he added. Indian Institute of Insolvency Professionals of ICAI (IIIPI) Chairman Ashok Haldia said the budget proposals for an integrated technology platform and sprucing up NCLT infrastructure will provide a fillip to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) regime. IIIPI is promoted by ICAI. Meanwhile, Kumarmangalam Vijay, Partner, JSA Advocates and Solicitors, opined that in its new avatar, it seems that the Modi government is keen to deliver on its promise of 'ease of doing business'. "Its focus on making it simpler is evident from the abolition of the angel tax, the increase in new income tax regime thresholds, new Vivad se Vishwas Scheme 2024 for the resolution of pending cases and the increase in the threshold for appeal by tax departments at various levels, decriminalising the non-reporting of shares received from non-resident employers and reducing the period for re-opening of the cases," Vijay said. The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) said there has been a focus on the manufacturing sector in the budget. Measures have been taken for simplifying the FDI/ODI rules and regulations, and the <keyword id="21847964" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-regimes" source="keywords">tax regimes</keyword>. The enhanced Mudra loan limit and the abolition of angel tax are all set to incentivize the startup and MSME ecosystem of the country. "The nine priorities identified in this progressive and inclusive budget 2024 are aimed at generating ample opportunities for all. Besides agricultural reforms, the budget focuses on skilling, educating and employing the youth, a priority that the ICSI has been concentrating on," said ICSI President B Narasimhan. Rajesh Magow, Co-Founder and Group CEO, MakeMyTrip, said the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure development is commendable. Enhanced road infrastructure will bolster the travel and tourism sector. "We also welcome the initiatives to develop iconic spiritual and cultural sites into world-class tourist hotspots," Magow said. Furthermore, he said the provision of credit for TCS against income tax under 'Income from Salaries' is logical and will provide much-desired relief to taxpayers who travel internationally.

Budget size almost unchanged from interim, shows govt's commitment to fiscal prudence: Experts

In April, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) governor Shaktikanta Das referred to <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> as the ‘elephant in the room’. He said, “The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest. We would like the elephant to return to the forest and remain there on a durable basis… Elephant moves slowly, and last mile inflation tends to be sticky.” On Friday, the Indian government data showed that the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (<keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword>) for June 2024 stood at 5.08 per cent — rising from 4.75% last month. This was the first time the headline inflation had risen since December 2023! Looks like the elephant decided to stop and look back on its way to the forest. The question remains, what’s next — will it return to the forest or return to the room to haunt us again? <h2>Food price inflation at a record high</h2> The major driver for the higher inflation figures this month has been the rising <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> across India. In fact, food price inflation almost doubled year-on-year in June, rising to 8.36 per cent last month compared to 4.63 per cent in June 2023. Inflation in the food basket was 9.36 per cent in June, up from 8.69 per cent in May, according to the data of the National Statistical Office (NSO). Government data showed that <keyword id="513422" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="Orion">retail inflation</keyword> for all food segments, including cereal, meat, eggs, milk, oils, fruits, vegetables, pulses, sugar, spices, prepared snacks, and sweets, increased month-on-month. This was the main cause for retail inflation hardening in June, diverging from the previous months' moderation. While the inflation rate based on the all-India CPI for June 2024 stood at 5.08%, rural and urban inflation rates also spiked to 5.66 per cent and 4.39 per cent, respectively. “Barring the food basket, inflation is indicating signs of bottoming out broadly across the non-food categories, also seen in the inflation in the core categories averaging at 3.5% in the last six months. A stable monsoon will play an important role in stabilising food prices and inflation levels over the next few months,” said Vivek Rathi, National Director Research, Knight Frank India. In May, annual retail inflation was at a 12-month low of 4.75%, slightly down from April's 4.83%. In December last year, retail inflation stood at 5.7 % and had been moderating until June. On the other hand, the US CPI rose only 3% on an annual basis in June versus expectations of 3.2%. Month-over-month, the US CPI declined 0.1%, on expectations for a 0.1% rise. <h2>There goes the chance of an early rate cut?</h2> While European central banks started to cut interest rates last month, hopes of such policy moves seem to have been derailed by these inflation figures. Indian central bank, RBI, has remained cautiously focused on inflation as the growth prospects remained robust. It has been waiting for the final phase of disinflation to materialise before considering rate cuts. The situation, however, does seem rather peculiar — as long as inflation does not align with the central bank's 4% target, the interest rates may remain rather high. However, the current economic environment is not gloomy at all, characterized by a robust GDP growth rate, estimated at 8.2% for 2023-24. Hence, the RBI adopts a wait-and-see approach. And the wait is likely to continue a little while longer. This year, food prices have become a significant issue for policymakers in India, and the RBI governor pinned his hopes on a good monsoon season to alleviate the food price inflation concerns. So far, the monsoon has stood up to our expectations, yet the food prices have remained stubbornly high, mainly due to extended heat wave conditions in June. "The CPI inflation came marginally higher than our expectations. While the <keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">food inflation</keyword> risks will continue to dominate in the near term, we expect better sowing patterns and spatial distribution of rains to eventually ease the price pressures beyond these volatile months. Having said that, the central bank will be in no hurry to ease <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> given the headroom from robust growth in the backdrop of near-term inflation risks," said Upasna Bhardwaj, Chief Economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. India's retail inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) comfort range of 2-6% but exceeds the ideal 4% scenario. While inflation is a global concern, India has so far managed its inflation trajectory relatively well. Since May 2022, the RBI has raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively to combat inflation. However, over the last eight policy cycles, the central bank has kept the rates consistent at 6.5%. The next monetary policy meeting of the RBI is scheduled for early August. And with the higher-than-expected inflation data, the central bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged next month as well for the ninth consecutive month. However, hopes are still alive for a rate cut towards the end of the year. "We are not ruling out a stance change in October 2024 and a 25 bps rate cut each in December 2024 and February 2025, followed by an extended pause, if the food inflation outlook turns decidedly favourable on the back of a normal magnitude and favourable distribution of rainfall in the rest of the monsoon season, and there are no other shocks, either global or domestic," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA. (With inputs from ANI and PTI) <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110784179" title="Monetary Policy Committee keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, confirms RBI governor Shaktikanta Das" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div> <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="110788776" title="RBI retains inflation projection for FY25 at 4.5%" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"><payload><![CDATA[seealso]]></payload></div>

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