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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 terrorist attacks.</li><li>A routine patrol by Israeli trainee soldiers on Wednesday ended in Sinwar's death.</li></ul>After a yearlong war against Hamas that reduced much of Gaza to ruins, Israel on Wednesday killed its top target: the Hamas leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-says-killed-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-oct-7-mastermind-2024-10">Yahya Sinwar.</a>But it wasn't sophisticated intelligence or advanced technology that enabled Israel to locate its mark, the man regarded as the architect of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-east-spiraling-year-after-hamas-october-7-israel-iran-2024-10">October 7, 2023, </a>terrorist attacks.It was persistence and sheer luck."It was the 'when' that was a matter of luck," said Bashir Abbas, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan policy research center based in Washington, D.C."Since Israel have been following a scorched earth policy and have leveled a significant portion of Gaza to the ground, inevitably, they would have to have got Sinwar at some point."<h2 id="dbc8788e-269d-4afb-863f-39c940a82009">A year of searching</h2>Sinwar had managed to stay hidden for a year, despite intensive Israeli attempts to locate him.He traveled through <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-gaza-tunnels-have-evolved-over-the-years-2024-1">Hamas' sprawling tunnel network</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-leader-mohammed-sinwar-faked-death-lived-tunnels-israel-idf-2023-11"> </a>to evade detection. Israel said he kept a "human shield" of Israeli civilian hostages with him for protection.But Israel's military persisted, using heavy weapons, including 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, to target areas under Gaza where Sinwar and other Hamas leaders could have been hiding.Despite international pressure to leave Gaza and agree to a permanent cease-fire, Israel continued its campaign against Hamas with ground incursions and bombardments that Palestinian authorities say left more than 42,000 people dead.During that time, Israel killed several Hamas leaders, including Mohammad Deif in Gaza, and Ismail Haniyeh in an audacious explosives attack in Tehran, Iran.Israeli intelligence narrowed Sinwar's location to the city of Rafah, where he repeatedly eluded them."I think people underestimate the fact that out of all the leaders Israel has taken out so far, it took the longest to get to Sinwar because he was in Gaza," said Abbas."The Hamas networks and labyrinths made it difficult, whereas in Lebanon, or Tehran where Ismail Haniyeh was killed, it's much more easy to be precise."<h2 id="05a90671-7b49-4184-9967-1a914e9abe69">A chance encounter</h2>A unit from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 828th Bislamach Brigade conducted Wednesday's operation in Gaza.Trainee squad commanders were taking part in a routine patrol of Tal al-Sultan, an area of Rafah, when they chanced upon three militants and exchanged fire, Israeli officials said.Unbeknownst to them, one was Sinwar.He ran into a nearby building, and the soldiers sent a drone after him. On Thursday, the Israeli military released footage from the drone showing Sinwar, wounded in the hand, covered in dust, his face hidden by a scarf.Not long after, a tank opened fire on the building, killing Sinwar.It was not until the next morning that the IDF realized who it may have killed. Part of a finger was sent back for DNA testing, confirming it was Sinwar."This wasn't a Haniyeh-style precise assassination," said Urban Coningham, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. "This is luck."<h2 id="698ef0b6-bdbd-489a-b031-745a1ba58c67">What next?</h2>Sinwar's death may prove a pivotal moment in the conflict. President Joe Biden called on Israel to use the moment to broker a cease-fire to return the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza home."It's sort of similar, if not more impactful than when the US finally managed to get Bin Laden," said Coningham. "This is a major security success for Netanyahu and for restoring the Israeli people's confidence in IDF after October 7."However, the future remains unclear, with analysts at the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-17-2024">Institute for the Study of War </a>saying on Wednesday that Hamas would be unlikely to back down from the demand for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, a sticking point in ceasefire negotiations."It's the oldest lesson from counter-insurgency campaigns in the past," said Abbas of the Stimson Center, pointing to deaths of former ISIS and Hezbollah leaders."Just because you decapitate an organization's leadership does not mean the organization is finished."

Israel killed its most-wanted target thanks to 2 things: luck and persistence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran, per Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.</li><li>Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iran's new president's inauguration; Hamas blames Israel.</li></ul>Top Hamas leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-killed-top-hamas-commanders-gaza-not-those-wants-most-2024-4">Ismail Haniyeh</a> has been killed in Iran, according to a statement from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps early Wednesday.Tasnim News, an IRGC-linked media channel, posted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/Tasnimnews_Fa/status/1818481556505182405">a statement announcing Haniyeh's death</a> in Tehran on Wednesday morning local time. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/30/world/israel-gaza-war-lebanon-hezbollah">New York Times</a>, the <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779">Associated Press</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/30/middleeast/hamas-political-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a> also reported on the killing. Haniyeh, 62, was the leader of Hamas' political wing. He joined the militant group in the late 1980s.In a statement published by the Hamas-affiliated Shehab news agency, the group accused Israel of killing Haniyeh in a "treacherous" attack on his residence in Tehran.Haniyeh was previously in exile in Qatar. He had traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's new president, according to multiple reports.No party has claimed responsibility for the killing at press time.In October, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, vowed a "mighty vengeance" on Hamas and its leaders for its October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which saw some 1,200 people killed and around 250 people taken hostage.When contacted for comment on Iranian state media reports, the Israeli military <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-beirut-explosion-07-30-24#h_bac604dcad44e7f76393912aee9feed8">told CNN</a> they "don't respond to reports in the foreign media." A White House spokesperson told the outlet it was aware of the reports but declined to comment.Representatives for the Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.Haniyeh's reported death comes hours after Israel struck the Lebanese capital of Beirut, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">killing a top Hezbollah commander</a> who it said was responsible for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights over the weekend.This story is developing. Please check back for more updates.

One of Hamas' top leaders has been killed in Iran, according to reports

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US said that Iran will face "severe consequences" for its missile attack on Israel.</li><li>Israel said that Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at it on Tuesday, most of which were intercepted.</li></ul>The US has promised "severe consequences" for Iran after it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">launched a massive ballistic missile strike</a> on Israel on Tuesday.The Israel Defense Forces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/IDF/status/1841205620709503051">said</a> that Iran fired 180 missiles at Israel in what Iran called a retaliatory attack for the recent assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders."This is a significant escalation by Iran, a significant event," US national security advisor Jake Sullivan <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aP7od1GtU04">told reporters</a> in a White House press conference on Tuesday."We have made clear that there will be consequences, severe consequences for this attack, and we will work with Israel to make that the case," Sullivan added.Announcing the attack, the Israel Defense Forces said on Telegram on Tuesday that "a short while ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel."In an X post, it said that "all Israeli civilians are in bomb shelters as rockets from Iran are fired at Israel."After the attack, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement: "Iran made a big mistake tonight — and it will pay for it."Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3923320/statement-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-irans-missile-strikes-a/">said</a> on Tuesday night that the US would help defend Israel and called the strike an "outrageous act of aggression."Sullivan echoed the words of another senior White House official, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-preparing-ballistic-missile-attack-against-israel-us-official-2024-10">who told Business Insider</a> before the attack that the US had seen "indications" of an attack against Israel."We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack," the anonymous official told BI. "A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran."During the attack, US Navy warships <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-warships-downed-iranian-missiles-massive-attack-on-israel-2024-10">fired interceptors</a> at Iranian missiles.Sullivan told reporters at the briefing that US naval destroyers "joined Israeli air-defense units in firing interceptors to shoot down inbound missiles.""We do not know of any damage to aircraft or strategic military assets in Israel," he added, saying the attack "appears to have been defeated" and was "ineffective."There were no reports of injuries from the attack in Israel, but one Palestinian laborer was killed by falling shrapnel in the Israel-occupied West Bank, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10/01/world/israel-lebanon-hezbollah?smid=url-share#gaza-palestinian-dead-iran-attack">per The New York Times.</a>Iran said that the missile attack was a retaliation against Israel's recent killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/10/01/3169848/missile-strike-on-israel-a-testament-to-iran-s-power-ex-irgc-quds-force-chief">Tasnim News Agency</a>, which is affiliated with the Iranian Armed Forces.In July, Israel <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">assassinated one of Hamas's top leaders</a>, Ismail Haniyeh, while he was in Tehran. And on Friday, Israel killed Hezbollah's leader, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, in an airstrike near Beirut.During trading on Tuesday, US crude oil prices surged more than 5%.An increase in tensions between Israel and Iran could drive oil prices higher, Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/rising-oil-prices-after-iran-strike-increase-us/story?id=114394795">told ABC News</a>."Clearly this will have a huge impact on gas prices," Krishnamoorti told ABC News. "There's no doubt about that."

A top US security official says America will make sure Iran faces 'severe consequences' for escalating its conflict with Israel

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel appeared to carry out two significant assassinations this week in Lebanon and Iran.</li><li>IDF jets killed a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon shortly before a Hamas leader was blown up in Iran.</li></ul>Israel claimed responsibility earlier this week for a deadly strike that killed a top Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, and just hours later, it became the leading suspect in a sophisticated scheme that assassinated Hamas' political chief in Iran.The stunning, back-to-back killings mark two significant intelligence successes for Israel, and demonstrate its ability to secretly track its enemies and strike them with cold precision, Middle East security and counterterrorism experts told Business Insider.But the strategic repercussions of these strikes remain to be seen, as the dual assassinations have also sparked fears of large-scale retaliation from Iran and its proxies, like Hezbollah and Hamas, which could kill more Israelis and plunge the region into even more conflict.<h2 id="0768e516-6c2d-42bc-9422-85c294aae606">A strike in Lebanon</h2>On Tuesday, Israeli fighter jets carried out a strike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7">killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>.<div type="image" title="A photo taken on July 30 shows the destroyed top floors of an eight-story building following an Israeli military strike on Beirut's southern suburb." height="2976" width="4464" msid="112230539" hostid="261" sizebytes="1615736"></div>Shukr served on Hezbollah's Jihad Council, its highest military body, and was a senior advisor to the group's secretary-general, Hasan Nasrallah. The US government also held him responsible for the 1983 <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-beirut-barracks-bombing-risk-clash-israel-hamas-hezbollah-iran-2023-10">bombing of the US Marine Corps barracks</a> in Beirut and had placed a $5 million bounty on his head.The Israel Defense Forces blamed Shukr for a deadly rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that took place just days prior and said it killed him in retaliation.Jonathan Lord, formerly a political military analyst at the Pentagon, said the operation to kill Shukr was likely informed by combat intelligence. Israel found where he was at a specific time and took the shot when it had the opportunity."Their ability to track these individuals in fairly real time, find out where they are, where they're going to be, and then to be able to launch a surgical strike against them — it's an impressive capability," said Lord, the director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security think tank.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Bruce Hoffman, a counterterrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Beirut strike demonstrated precision targeting that left minimal collateral damage; three other people were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/31/hezbollahsays-top-commander-fuad-shukr-killed-in-israel-strike-on-beirut">reportedly</a> killed, including two children.<h2 id="d38b8905-5ce1-4266-a05b-271148abf25b">'Reputation is everything'</h2>Hours following the Beirut strike, a more seismic incident occurred: Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">was killed in Iran</a> shortly after he attended the swearing-in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.The circumstances surrounding Haniyeh's death were initially unclear, and it was first thought that he died from an airstrike. However, The New York Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">reported</a> on Thursday that he was killed by an explosive device that had been smuggled months ago into the guesthouse where he was staying in Tehran and remotely detonated once it was clear Haniyeh was in the room.Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for Haniyeh's assassination and promised revenge.<div type="image" title="A man waves a Hezbollah and a Palestinian flag during the funeral procession of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut's southern suburbs on August 1." height="1446" width="2170" msid="112230538" hostid="261" sizebytes="219728"></div>Israel has not publicly acknowledged its involvement, but Israeli officials — including the leader of the country's vaunted Mossad intelligence agency — have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-03-2024-fc2394531bef8238e86879dd98ea435b">vowed to hunt down Hamas leaders</a> responsible for the October 7 massacre wherever they are.The Mossad has a long history of carrying out Israeli assassination operations outside the country. Axios later <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad">reported</a> that it was Mossad agents who planted the explosive device in the Tehran guesthouse, which is run by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, and detonated it from Iranian soil."Astonishingly, Israel had the assets and the capability to gain access to what should have been one of the most highly defended and secured targets in Iran," Hoffman said.Adding to the significant announcements this week, Israel on Thursday said it killed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-mohammad-deif-mastermind-hamas-attack-israel-palestine-gaza-2023-10">Mohammed Deif</a>, the commander of Hamas' military wing, in a mid-July strike in Gaza. Hamas did not immediately confirm his death in the strike, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-war-mohammed-deif-9524d7d5c8f7321f4d8c931fde664556">reportedly</a> killed dozens of Palestinians.<div type="image" title="An anti-Israeli billboard hangs at Palestine Square in Tehran on July 31." height="1428" width="2148" msid="112230537" hostid="261" sizebytes="482676"></div>Yoav Gallant, Israel's defense minister, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1818930330230812684">said</a> Thursday that "the operation was conducted precisely and professionally" by the IDF and Israeli security forces.Lord, the former Pentagon analyst, said tactical intelligence is "definitely a strong suit of the Israelis," but he stressed that this must be weighed against some of the apparent breakdowns that the country's elite intelligence community faced leading up to the October 7 attacks.Israel's political, intelligence, and security apparatuses came under immense scrutiny following the deadly massacre as the public tried to make sense of how the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-israel-military-failed-stop-hamas-attacks-country-troubles-deeper-2023-10">worst breach of the country's defenses</a> since the 1973 Yom Kippur War could occur.Top officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/idf-elite-intelligence-unit-saw-signs-hamas-prepared-attack-report-2023-11">missed and ignored several warnings</a> that Hamas was preparing a major attack, believing such an event couldn't happen and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-probe-said-to-find-pre-oct-7-intel-shouldve-been-enough-to-thwart-hamas-attack/">failed to respond</a> to signs of an imminent attack. In April, Israel's military intelligence chief <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68873227.amp">resigned</a> and said his directorate "did not live up to the task we were entrusted with."Hoffman said Israel's recent string of targeted killings is its attempt to reestablish the dominant reputation of its intelligence community and restore its deterrent capability so it can make good on future threats and appear stronger in the face of regional adversaries like Iran."Israel understands that reputation is everything in the Middle East," Hoffman said. "So gaining that back with this particular series of assassinations was absolutely pivotal."

Israel scored major intelligence wins in daring assassinations of Iranian proxy leaders 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran launched a massive ballistic missile strike on Israel on Tuesday.</li><li>Israel has vowed to retaliate, potentially against Iran's oil infrastructure.</li></ul>Israel has vowed to respond to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-ineffective-strike-on-israel-intended-to-cause-massive-damage-2024-10">Iran's massive ballistic missile strike</a> earlier this week, and it may have Iranian oil production facilities in its sights.Such a move <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*4tz29s*_ga*MTA1MjU1Njk3Ni4xNzE1MzY2MDU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODA0OTQxNy4zNTQuMC4xNzI4MDQ5NDIzLjU0LjAuMA">could prompt a spike in oil prices</a>, which are already surging after the attack and in anticipation of Israeli retaliation. Such an outcome could create a headache for Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign in the final weeks before the pivotal election.Historically, presidents in office when gas prices surge don't fare well. Political scientists have found that a rise in gasoline prices is correlated with a drop in presidential approval. Incumbents or their party don't usually fare well when viewed unpopularly. Fairly or unfairly, Americans blame the president when it costs more to fill up, even if the events causing a price spike are out of their control.Analysts say that, for now, all sides have incentives to avoid taking actions that could further destabilize the region."I think there is still a little bit of stability in an unstable world; it wasn't like Russia's invasion of Ukraine," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told Business Insider."The Middle East is really critical," he said, "but there's a lot of pressure on both sides to have this not escalate into a war. I think it would be really exceptional to see this escalate out of control."De Haan pointed to how oil markets responded to Iran's attack in April, spiking briefly before going back down. The major concern this time around is that Israeli leaders seem to want a much larger response than what occurred in the spring."In April, we saw an extremely limited Israeli response, striking a single air defense battery in central Iran. This was meant as a message to Tehran that Israel can successfully target and destroy Iranian assets over long distances if necessary," Clay Seigle, a political risk strategist, told Business Insider. But in July, Israel destroyed an oil import terminal controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.While the attack had a limited impact on the Houthis, the message was clear to Iran, "highlighting the fact that oil assets are on the target list of Israeli planners. The message was repeated earlier this week with a second such Israeli attack on Houthi-controlled oil and energy facilities," Siegle said.<div type="image" title="Iranian oil facilities in Khark Island, including a stretch of white pipes leading towards the island, with a grey sky background." height="3791" width="5687" msid="113965878" hostid="261" sizebytes="1153196"></div>Analysts say a direct attack on Iranian oil refineries or larger unrest in the region would potentially affect shipping routes in the Straight of Hormuz.The market has been able to absorb concerns about past events. Kit Haines, a global crude analyst at Energy Aspects, said that fears about supply issues related to sanctions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil largely did not match the actual realities.Still, Haines said that this time, the concern is about broader potential unrest in the region."This time around, I think people are seriously worried," he said, explaining that "we have seen things go off in the Middle East before, but actually, there is a pretty sizeable potential here that it could impact supply. It's not necessarily about what any Israeli response will do, I think it is the secondary effects of that.<h2 id="8ca6c26e-88d6-4509-98a8-c81bef5e5f75">Israel has vowed to retaliate after Iran's massive attack earlier this week</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-missile-strike-israel-just-fraction-what-china-could-do-2024-10">Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles on Israel</a> on Tuesday, likely the largest such attack in history, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">in response</a> to Israel's killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. Iran's targets were apparently mostly military and government installations, some of which are near or in densely populated central Israel.Israel, with help from US forces in the region, said it largely intercepted the attack, with the Biden administration saying that the strike was "defeated and ineffective." Although much is still unclear about the impact of the attack, some satellite imagery has shown Iranian missiles did hit Israeli military targets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to retaliate with US support."The regime of Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves," Netanyahu said, adding that "they will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: Whoever attacks, we will attack them."<div type="image" title="A photo showing some of Iran's missiles flying down in the night sky above the cityscape of Jerusalem, Israel." height="3456" width="5184" msid="113965880" hostid="261" sizebytes="461002"></div>Speculation about which potential Iranian targets Israel could strike have shifted from Iran's nuclear production facilities to the country's vast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/03/crude-oil-prices-today.html">oil production facilities</a>. Iran is a significant oil producer with major reserves and production capabilities.In the aftermath of the attack, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-hurricane-helene-israel-palestine-iran-supply-chains-inflation-2024-10">the price of oil has already surged up</a>, prompting concerns that, should the conflict broaden and potentially further entangle US forces in the region, oil and gas prices could skyrocket.Seigle said that market prices tend to "fluctuate in times of actual or feared supply shortages as traders re-price the value of an increasingly scarce commodity relative to demand," noting that supply disruption is related primarily to two factors: how much oil is offline and for how long.If Israel did strike Iran's oil, it would likely have two main targets. One is its oil refiners, which provide the country with transportation fuels and gasoline. The other is Iran's production and export facilities.If Israel hit even a few of its petroleum refiners, it "could create a gasoline fuel shortage in Iran," Seigle said. But that wouldn't necessarily impact the global oil supply. If Israel struck Iran's oil production and export facilities, that would have "far greater repercussions," he said. "A military operation that cuts this output would leave the world with less crude supply, causing prices to rise. This week, for the first time, markets finally began contemplating this scenario; oil prices have increased more than 5 percent as this risk begins to be 'priced in,' Seigle said.US President Joe Biden has weighed in on discussions surrounding what Israel's retaliation could look like. On Wednesday, Biden said the US wouldn't support Israeli strikes on sites related to Iran's nuclear program. Then, on Thursday, he said the US and Israel were discussing whether the US would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities.Hours after Biden's comment, crude oil prices jumped 5%. The National Iranian Tanker Company also moved its tankers from Kharg Island's oil terminal in apparent fear of an imminent attack, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/1841895357434732660">TankerTrackers.com</a>, an independent online service that keeps tabs on the movements of crude oil.On Friday, Biden appeared to backtrack on his earlier targeting comments, telling reporters that if he were in the Israeli's shoes, he would consider alternate targets.<div type="image" title="Joe Biden" height="1333" width="2000" msid="113965877" hostid="261" sizebytes="117154"></div>The risk of the conflict expanding is high. Nicholas Carl, the researcher manager of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.criticalthreats.org">American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project</a> who focuses on Iran, explained to Business Insider that "throughout this entire series of events," there's been "extraordinary risk of miscalculations" for both sides.If the US did support striking oil facilities, it would come at odds with Washington's stance on Ukraine doing the same thing to Russia. Earlier this year, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-stop-targeting-russias-oil-refineries-will-defy-us-2024-3">US urged Ukraine to cease its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure</a>, warning its drone strikes could drive up global oil prices and provoke retaliation.At the time, Ukraine was using long-range attack drones to strike various Russian oil refineries, terminals, storage facilities, and depots, intending to hurt its production capacity. Russia is one of the world's largest energy exporters, although the US and its allies have imposed hefty sanctions on its industries.Washington's concerns came just as Biden began pushing his reelection campaign and before his historic dropout."US policymakers and politicians are more dedicated to Israel's security (and to showcasing this dedication) than they are to Ukraine's," Seigle said. Publicly, they're less likely to rein Israel in from those ambitions. Privately, though, Biden officials are "surely very concerned" about the impact of such a strike," he added.Israel and Iran hold "more potential to disrupt global markets and send prices surging than does the Russia-Ukraine war," Seigle said.<h2 id="f45eb6e9-e88e-489e-95a4-b2d1c7d08722">Few things are watched more closely than gas prices ahead of an election</h2><div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="4577" width="6865" msid="113965876" hostid="261" sizebytes="666498"></div>If Israel does target Iran's oil industry, the 2024 presidential election could be rocked by rising oil prices ahead of the majority of the voting.Oil prices had notably been trending downwards in the months prior to Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel. Back in September, global oil prices fell to the lowest level in almost three years, and the US has seen a historic year of oil production.But if prices at the pump were to soar in response to upheavals abroad amid domestic concerns about issues like inflation, it could be a problem, as it has been historically. That said, the impact of changes like these has begun to lessen in this hyperpartisan era. It is increasingly less likely for a president's approval rating to swing dramatically.As of Friday, the national average was at $3.17 a gallon, according to GasBuddy. At the end of September, the average was down both on a month-to-month basis and on a year-to-year basis. Predicting gas prices can be difficult, given just how dramatically markets can shift, but De Haan said he did not expect prices to "skyrocket out of control.""I think there are some reasons why gas prices would remain in somewhat of a check, but if some of these boxes start getting checked at the same time, if there are significant escalations in the Middle East, and if there's a perfect storm in the US, a perfect hurricane knocking out refining capacity, it could still lead to a surge in price before Election Day," he said. "I just think the odds of a major surge are rather low."

Israel's strike back at Iran could hurt the Harris campaign in its final stretch if gas prices soar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>More than six months after Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre, Israel is still fighting the militants in Gaza.</li><li>The IDF has managed to kill some of Hamas' top commanders, but it continues to hunt down others.</li></ul>More than six months into its war in Gaza, Israel has little to show for its efforts. It has been unable to kill or capture the most senior members of Hamas' leadership, and its scorched-earth offensive has left a trail of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-pounding-gaza-massive-spice-kit-bombs-2023-12">death and destruction</a> in its wake.Israel's inability thus far to eliminate the top Hamas commanders it wants most is complicating ones of its stated war aims: crushing the militant group. Officials have said that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/researchers-mapped-gaza-damage-buildings-destroyed-israel-hamas-2023-12">devastating war</a> — triggered by Hamas' Oct. 7 massacre that killed some 1,200 people — will continue until the country achieves its goals, which include returning all the hostages, destroying Hamas, and demilitarizing the entirety of Gaza.But securing these objectives in full is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-no-win-situation-gaza-after-months-war-crush-hamas-2024-1">proving to be elusive</a> for the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF. Fears are growing that many of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-may-not-have-enough-living-hostages-for-cease-fire-deal-61606c66?mod=hp_lead_pos3">remaining hostages</a> may already be dead, Israeli clearing operations throughout Gaza have not prevented Hamas from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/idf-retreat-al-shifa-hospital-palestinians-rubble-dead-rcna147061">returning to areas</a> that were once the sites of hard-fought and bloody battles, and there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on a workable post-war governance plan.Israel has claimed that it has eliminated a significant number of mid- to senior-level commanders of Hamas' military wing, known as the al-Qassam Brigades. In December, for instance, the IDF <a target="_blank" href="https://videoidf.azureedge.net/1543a902-563c-4939-8393-7256844f7c38">released a photo</a> purporting to show multiple commanders it had killed.<div type="image" title="Israeli soldiers are seen near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on March 4, 2024." height="3744" width="5616" msid="109272057" hostid="261" sizebytes="500192"></div>A mid-March Israeli airstrike killed Marwan Issa, the deputy head of Hamas' military wing who had been hiding in an underground compound in central Gaza, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.idf.il/185100">according</a> to the IDF.Jake Sullivan, who serves as the White House national security advisor, identified Issa as Hamas' "number three" in Gaza and said that after his death last month that Israel had "killed thousands of Hamas fighters, including senior commanders."The exact number of militants killed is unclear. Israel said in late-February that it had <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-12000-hamas-fighters-killed-in-gaza-war-double-the-terror-groups-claim/">killed 12,000 members</a> of Hamas' 30,000-strong pre-war force. Hamas, by contrast, claimed at the time that its death toll was only half of that figure.As of this week, more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed since Oct. 7, including 25,000 women and children, according to figures released by Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry. The death toll, which is cited by the United Nations, does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.<div type="image" title="Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis on April 8, 2024." height="5492" width="8238" msid="109272060" hostid="261" sizebytes="2268502"></div>Israel has also managed to strike at Hamas' political wing, which operates in exile in Qatar.An <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/saleh-al-arouri-mastermind-of-hamas-terrorism-in-west-bank-hostage-deal-negotiator/">early January explosion</a> in a Beirut suburb eliminated Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas">political bureau</a>, which is often referred to as its politburo. He was the militant group's senior official in Lebanon, responsible for maintaining ties with Hezbollah, another Iran-backed proxy force like Hamas.And more recently, on Wednesday, the IDF and Israel's Shin Bet security agency confirmed in a joint <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/7409">announcement</a> that an airstrike in central Gaza had killed three sons of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing.All three men were known to be Hamas military operatives, Israel said. Haniyeh <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/68783840">responded</a> to their deaths by stating that this incident would not change his demands to stop the fighting.<div type="image" title="Smoke rises to the sky after an explosion in Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel on April 4, 2024." height="1448" width="2166" msid="109272063" hostid="261" sizebytes="57316"></div>But several <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/">top Hamas military leaders</a>, including those most wanted by Israel, remain at-large. This includes figures such as Yahya Sinwar, the overall head of the organization in Gaza, his brother Mohammed, a leader in the al-Qassam Brigades, and Mohammed Deif, who is the commander of the military wing."The rest of the top leaders are in hiding, likely deep in the Hamas tunnel network," Sullivan said during a March White House briefing. "And justice will come for them too, and we are helping to ensure that."Hamas' vast and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-invasion-gaza-hamas-hardest-fighting-underground-tunnels-warfare-2023-10">sophisticated tunnel network</a> underneath Gaza — where the militants have been able to hide and facilitate the movement of weapons, and from which they can launch surprise assaults — has proven to be a headache for Israeli forces.Retired Maj. Gen. Charlie Herbert, a former officer in the British army, told Business Insider that Hamas leaders who are hiding below ground are able to maintain operational, personal, and communications security there.<div type="image" title="A supporter of the Iran-backed Houthi militia holds a poster of Yahya Sinwar during a protest marking Jerusalem Day in support of Palestinians in Yemen on April 5, 2024." height="1446" width="2174" msid="109272065" hostid="261" sizebytes="158640"></div>Israel's inability to kill them is less of an intelligence failure, said Herbert, who has also served as the senior NATO advisor to Afghanistan's interior ministry, and more that the country has yet to link any intelligence success it does have with an effective kinetic strike targeting the senior leaders.Israel has found "no real success" at getting Sinwar over the last six months, Herbert said. What it needs to do instead, he argued, is pivot away from major combat operations toward a more targeted and methodical campaign that also reduces civilian casualties, allows displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, and boosts the flow of humanitarian aid into the besieged enclave.Herbert said the Israeli military should "retain freedom of maneuver into Gaza for their military forces as and when they require and conduct an intelligence-driven counter-terrorist strategy, whacking Hamas as and when you can do."Indeed, on Thursday, the IDF announced it was beginning a "precise operation" in central Gaza, seemingly marking a new phase in its efforts to hunt down Hamas leaders. It was unclear if the move came in direct response to the killings of Haniyeh's sons the day prior.<div type="image" title="Israeli soldiers work on tanks at a staging ground near the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on April 11, 2024." height="3744" width="5616" msid="109272066" hostid="261" sizebytes="1236372"></div>"Overnight, the 162nd Division began a precise, intelligence-based operation to eliminate terrorist operatives and strike terrorist infrastructure in central Gaza," the IDF said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/idfofficial/7411">statement</a> shared to the Telegram messaging platform. What that may look like is a mystery though.The IDF announcement came just days after the IDF withdrew its forces from the southern city of Khan Younis. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the move was to prepare for "future missions," including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahu-says-civilians-in-rafah-can-just-move-away-from-an-israeli-ground-invasion">planned offensive in Rafah</a>, where scores of civilians are sheltering.The potential Rafah assault has drawn <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-administration-odds-israel-plans-rafah-invasion/story?id=109046510">concern and pushback</a> from Western governments, including the Biden administration, amid rising international criticism of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-israel-tensions-boil-after-un-ceasefire-vote-rafah-plans-2024-3">Israel's aggressive military campaign</a> as the death toll continues to mount and the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen.

Israel is struggling to find and kill the top Hamas commanders it wants most

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas is demanding that Israel releases Marwan Barghouti.</li><li>Some Palestinians regard Barghouti as a heroic Nelson Mandela figure.</li></ul>Hamas is demanding that Israel releases the high-profile Palestinian prisoner Marwan Barghouti amid tense cease-fire talks, <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-marwan-barghouti-ceasefire-deal-fb3152db0cc4d37683a2019017e34bc1">The Associated Press reported</a>.As the most well-known prisoner held by Israel and a potential future Palestinian president, Barghouti's freedom is at the center of negotiations.The Palestinian militant group's aims appear to be twofold — increase public support for their party and recognize Barghouti's rare position as a unifier among Palestinians, per the report."Hamas wants to show to the Palestinian people that they are not a closed movement. They represent part of the Palestinian social community. They are trying to seem responsible," Qadoura Fares from the Palestinian Ministry of Prisoner Affairs in the West Bank territory told The AP.According to the think tank the <a target="_blank" href="https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/marwan_barghouti/">European Council on Foreign Relations</a>, Barghouti is "often described by Palestinians as the 'Palestinian Mandela.'" He is seen as a potential presidential successor to the aging Mahmoud Abbas.Nelson Mandela was the leader of the resistance to the apartheid regime in South Africa who spent 27 years in prison. He went on to become the nation's first Black president.Barghouti, 64, was a leading member of the secular Fatah movement and supported the peace process with Israel in the 1990s but became disillusioned. He went on to lead the Second Intifada (uprising) that begun in 2000.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13628771">Barghouti was arrested in 2002</a> and is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his part in several deadly suicide bombing attacks on Israeli targets.Throughout his trial, Barghouti refused to recognize the Israeli court's legitimacy and defend himself.In the past, he has said he supports attacks on Israel's occupation of the West Bank but<a target="_blank" href="https://www.medea.be/en/themes/biographies/abc/barghouti-marwan/"> does not endorse the killing of Israelis within the pre-1967 border.</a><div type="image" title="Palestinian woman looks at a mural depicting Jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti." height="1333" width="2000" msid="107403263" hostid="261" sizebytes="260592"></div>Despite decades in incarceration, Barghouti still enjoys widespread respect and support among all Palestinian factions.He is the most popular politician among Palestinians, ahead of Abbas and Hamas' leader, Ismail Haniyeh, <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-palestinians-opinion-poll-wartime-views-a0baade915619cd070b5393844bc4514">according to an opinion poll published in December</a>. Hamas' demands come as international mediators continue to search for an end to the conflict after nearly four months of fighting, which broke out following Hamas' October 7 attacks on Israel.The attacks killed around 1,200 people in Israel, while roughly 240 others were taken hostage in Gaza.Israel launched a series of devastating airstrikes and a ground invasion of the territory in response to the attacks, which have left more than 27,000 Palestinians dead so far.Israel is demanding that Hamas releases over 100 hostages, while the latter is calling for Israel to cease its offensive and release thousands of prisoners.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure to reach a deal over the Israeli hostages as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-hostages-protest-tel-aviv-banjamin-netanyahu-resign-gaza-2023-10?r=US&amp;IR=T">protesters continue to voice their anger over his handling of the situation.</a>

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