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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a war of attrition in Ukraine.</li><li>Russia has more to gain by prolonging the war, regardless of who wins the US presidential election.</li></ul>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have starkly different visions of how they'll seek to end one of the gravest security crises in recent decades: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">the</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11"> Ukraine war.</a>Harris has pledged to continue the policy of President Joe Biden, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-soldiers-look-up-abrams-tanks-face-new-threats-ukraine-2024-8">arming Ukraine to defend itself </a>against Russia's two-year invasion.Trump, meanwhile, claims he can bring about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">rapid end to the conflict </a>through negotiations.Whoever is in charge in the White House come January, analysts believe Putin is likely wagering that he has more to gain by prolonging his war of attrition than ending it.<h2 id="3a744150-ba82-4dfb-b30b-8811820f42fe">Pressure mounts on Ukraine</h2>Russia has, in recent months, been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, bringing its larger troop numbers and artillery supplies to bear, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines."There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people," the secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told parliament last week.North Korea is also believed to have <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">sent thousands of troops</a> to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US."The key advantage gained by Russia [in prolonging the war] is 'events'" Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull in the UK told Business Insider."Ukraine seems to be highly strained by the conflict, and this is - in part - a product of the numbers Russia is able to throw into the conflict," he said.<div type="image" title="Trump n Putin" height="820" width="1024" msid="114953184" hostid="261" sizebytes="31598"></div><h2 id="712a570c-ce6b-49c6-b90b-0c08b2faeb64">Trump's peace plans could embolden Russia</h2>The terms on which Trump would seek to broker peace in Ukraine are unclear, though he's criticized the aid Biden sent to Ukraine, suggesting it could be used as leverage.He has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-charged-russia-media">questioned the effectiveness </a>of the administration's sanctions against Russia.His running mate, JD Vance<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">, recently outlined a </a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/">plan for ending the war in Ukraine</a> under a possible Trump administration, with the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.Both candidates have also questioned US commitments to NATO, the security pact that has been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe.However, in reducing aid to Ukraine and, in effect, handing over swaths of territory to Russia, the US would likely embolden Kremlin aggression, say critics."If Russia knows its territorial revisionism in Ukraine can be permissible by Washington, it is hard to see how Moscow will not see the same elsewhere (or even further in Ukraine, like it did after 2014)," Paul Cormarie, a policy analyst at the RAND Coproration, told BI."Peace in Ukraine in favor of Russia isn't peace, it's a truce."Undermining Western unity by criticizing NATO could have much the same effect.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden shake hands during a joint press conference at the Masseria San Domenico on the sidelines of the G7 Summit hosted by Italy." height="683" width="1024" msid="114953181" hostid="261" sizebytes="29734"></div><h2 id="43d5159f-1892-46df-b087-cadcd5c43edf">Harris pledges to continue backing Ukraine – but it likely won't be enough</h2>Harris, by contrast, has pledged to continue US support for Ukraine, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/#:~:text=To%20date%2C%20we%20have%20provided,invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20in%202014.">has cost $64.1 billion</a> in military assistance since the 2022 Russian invasion.US aid has played a key role in helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion and inflict vast losses on Russia's forces.But the Biden administration has long placed limits on how Ukraine can use the weapons. Ukraine also says US aid often arrives in a piecemeal way.It's part of a US effort to balance support for Ukraine with not provoking Russia and causing a bigger war.But it means that Putin likely believes he can continue to wage his war of attrition against Ukraine with Harris as president as she likely won't provide enough military aid to defeat his forces.It's a war Putin has staked Russia's economic future on, underlining the importance of victory for the Russian leader.One key tool Biden has used to punish Russia is sanctions designed to damage its economy by limiting its capacity to sell oil and gas internationally.However, Russia has managed to open new export markets in major economies including China and India, making the economic damage of the sanctions has been more limited than some experts projected.Economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">Alexander Mertens recently wrote</a> that Russia would likely suffer economic damage regardless of whether it continues the war or not, meaning there's not a major incentive for Putin to stop now.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping enter the hall for Russian-Chinese talks on May 16, 2024 in Beijing, China." height="760" width="1024" msid="114953186" hostid="261" sizebytes="24578"></div><h2 id="41991dd2-f4c0-4eea-aac2-1fdc873df772">Putin plays the long game</h2>Putin's thinking about the global picture, too said Dover.China is observing the Ukraine conflict closely as it weighs whether to launch an invasion of US-ally Taiwan, say analysts, while the Middle East is engulfed in a conflict that could spiral into a much bigger war.Dover said a major conflict in either region could draw in US resources and energy and distract from Ukraine."A regional conflict in the Middle East will help Russia maintain a conflict in Ukraine, with lower risks," he said, cautioning though that the situation was a "fluid assessment conditioned by events."Overall, Putin's mission is to not just seize Ukraine but also work in tandem with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-brink-military-alliance-may-overwhelm-us-putin-xi-2023-12">other authoritarian leaders</a> to damage US global power."In the near-term, Russia and China have embraced a strategy of joint confrontation with the United States and its Allies in Europe and Asia respectively," analyst Jonathan Ward of the Hudson Institute told BI last year.Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to get Putin to change course in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine, and his bigger global ambition."He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources," wrote Peter Schroeder, former Principal Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council, for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.is/Y92WB#selection-1479.348-1479.412">Foreign Relations in September.</a>The best course, writes Schroeder, is for the US to play Putin at his own game and outlast him in his war of attrition, waiting for him to die or leave office."Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine," he said.

Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>NATO chief Mark Rutte has a message for Donald Trump: Europe knows it must spend more on arms.</li><li>Rutte made a point of highlighting Poland's strong defense spending during a recent trip to Warsaw.</li></ul>NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has a "clear message" for the US: Europe knows it must spend more on defense.Rutte met with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw earlier this week, taking the opportunity to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_230437.htm?selectedLocale=en">praise Poland's defense spending</a>.Poland is set to lead NATO in defense spending as a percentage of GDP for the second year in a row, with Warsaw investing more than 4% of its economic output on defense in 2024.Speaking in the capital on Wednesday, Rutte said: "This sends a clear message not only to our adversaries but also to the United States. That Europe understands it must do more to ensure our shared security. And that starts with spending more and also fielding more capabilities."It seems a timely reminder following Donald Trump's election win last week.During his first term in the White House, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/trump-confirms-he-threatened-to-withdraw-from-nato/">threatened to withdraw from NATO</a> if allies did not start spending more on defense.Rutte's appointment as head of NATO earlier this year has offered some hope of appeasing Trump's apparent skepticism of the alliance — Rutte has garnered a reputation as a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-next-chief-donald-trump-whisperer-vladimir-putin-critic-2024-6">Trump whisperer</a>," and analysts say he understands the need for European allies to increase their share of the defense burden.Rutte said last week that Europe would have to spend more than the 2% of GDP target.In a visit to Paris to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron this week, the Secretary General also touched on the topic of Ukraine, stressing that the war also posed a threat to the US."Russia, working together with North Korea, Iran and China is not only threatening Europe, it threatens peace and security, yes, here in Europe, but also in the Indo Pacific and in North America," Rutte said."So, we must stand together – Europe, North America and our global partners - to keep our people safe and prosperous," he added.<h2 id="c4d5b324-6bb6-4ece-8ecf-bc230176f44b">Poland and NATO</h2>Poland's surge in defense spending has come in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which it launched in February 2022.Some in Poland are now hopeful that Trump will appreciate the country's efforts as he returns to office, seeing it as "a leading example of what a NATO member state should look like," Aaron Korewa, the director of the Atlantic Council's Warsaw Office, has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-the-world-thinks-of-trumps-return-to-the-us-presidency/">said</a>."However, that won't amount to much if Ukraine is overrun by Russia and if the United States, either frustrated over lack of progress with countries such as Germany or due to rising 'Asia first' voices in the incoming administration, decides to turn away from Europe," he added.

NATO's 'Trump whisperer' chief has a clear message for the president-elect: Europe knows it must spend more on arms

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Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

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NATO's 'Trump whisperer' chief has a clear message for the president-elect: Europe knows it must spend more on arms

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