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<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AOC during a recent Instagram Q&amp;A asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection.</li><li>The responses were candid, and many pointed to the economy and the conflict in Gaza.</li></ul>Similar to Democrats across the country reflecting on Vice President Kamala Harris' election loss, New York Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-democratic-national-convention-speech-political-evolution-progressives-mainstream-2024-8">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> has spent time thinking about the ramifications of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House. Ocasio-Cortez, a strong backer of Harris and one of the most progressive voices in the US House of Representatives, took to Instagram this past weekend where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/SJohnson99/status/1855782107118735587/video/1">she argued that "most people" aren't ready</a> for the president-elect in office again. During her conversation, she highlighted Trump's pledge to initiate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-thomas-homan-illegal-immigration-border-czar-ice-2024-11">mass deportations</a> as well as his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">tariff threats</a>. Then Ocasio-Cortez opened up the floor to Instagram users, asking for responses from people who backed her reelection in New York's 14th Congressional District and Trump's candidacy or who backed Trump and downballot Democrats in other states. Many of the responses pointed to two key issues: the economy and the conflict in Gaza. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-democrats-suburban-voters-unions-2024-11">Harris crafted an economic message</a> that she believed would differentiate herself from President Joe Biden, who stepped aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee in July. And the vice president sought to reassure voters concerned over the Israel-Hamas war and the plight of Palestinians that she would work to secure peace in the region as president. But she wasn't able to counter Trump's electoral performance. A slew of Instagram users said they registered their general frustration by not supporting Harris. The responses to Ocasio-Cortez included: <ul><li>"It's real simple… Trump and you care for the working class"</li><li>"Trump is going to get us the money and lets men have a voice. You're brilliant and have amazing passion!"</li><li>"I feel like Trump and you are both real."</li><li>"I know people that did this and it was bc of Gaza."</li><li>"You are focused on the real issues people care about. Similar to Trump populism in some ways."</li><li>"Because of Gaza"</li><li>"I voted Trump and dems because he reached out to Muslims"</li></ul>Democrats struggled to rally core parts of their longtime base — which included younger Black men and Latino voters — which benefited Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">The president-elect made major inroads</a>, notably in several Democratic-heavy states, as many voters remained frustrated over the direction of the country. Harris argued that her presidency would have tackled of some of the biggest economic and foreign policy challenges that the country faced, but in the end she wasn't able to recreate Biden's 2020 coalition. Correction: November 12, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what is known about the people who responded to Rep. <keyword id="22445548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez" source="keywords">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</keyword> on Instagram. It's unclear whether the respondents voted.

AOC asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection. Instagram users pointed to the economy and Gaza.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell as investors braced for the US presidential election on Tuesday. </li><li>Kamala Harris has gained momentum recently, hitting popular Trump trades in the market. </li></ul>US stocks traded lower on Monday as investors turned their attention to the presidential election on Tuesday. More than 76 million Americans have voted via mail-in ballots or early in person, suggesting a potential record turnout this year.After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">a shock Iowa poll showed Kamala Harris leading in the state</a> against Donald Trump over the weekend, betting odds tightened in the race after Trump spent the weeks leading up to the vote far ahead of Harris. Harris' momentum in the election's final days <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-trump-trade-impact-kamala-harris-rising-election-odds-2024-11">weighed on the Trump trade on Monday,</a> with Treasury yields, the US dollar, and bitcoin all falling.For a full rundown of the implications for the economy and stock market based on who wins the election, read BI's deep dive on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">the potential impacts here.</a>Analysts from Citi on Monday noted that the stock market isn't behaving like it has in past election years. Stocks tend to waver amid the uncertainty, but the rally has largely continued in the months leading to the vote, suggesting that investors are more attuned to macroeconomic data and earnings. "US equities have been very strong coming into this election cycle compared to the past," the analysts said. "The current anomaly has less to do with the market pricing a certain election outcome but more to do with an expectation of continued interest rate cutting combined with a likely shallower US economic slowdown.After the election, investors will shift their attention to the Federal Reserve. The central bank's next policy meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">with an interest rate decision to come at 2 p.m. ET Thursday.</a>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,712.73, down 0.28% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,794.60, down 0.61% (-257.59 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,179.98, 0.33%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-cut-quarterly-earnings-2024-11">Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in Apple again. The conglomerate is now sitting of $325 billion in cash.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-2024-11">Stocks might "go nowhere" for the rest of the year amid Fed uncertainty and US debt concerns, Ed Yardeni said.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-political-spending-elections-2026-midterms-coinbase-fairshake-super-pac-2024-11">A crypto PAC has already raised tons of cash for the 2026 midterm elections. </a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for crude-exporting countries.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 2.96% to $71.55 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.76% to $75.12 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> declined 0.08% to $2,746.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 8 basis points to 4.314%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> decreased 1.64% to $67,617.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes drop ahead of Tuesday's presidential election

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ali Abbasi's film "The Apprentice" explores Trump's rise with lawyer Roy Cohn's guidance.</li><li>The film highlights Trump's tactics, which influenced his career and presidency.</li></ul>Director Ali Abbasi's "The Apprentice" presents a dramatized origin story for Donald Trump (played by Sebastian Stan), who, in the span of a few decades, goes from a nobody to a New York real-estate tycoon under the guidance of his lawyer, Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong).Though the movie doesn't delve into Trump's political aspirations — it ends right when author Tony Schwartz begins to discuss ghostwriting the 1987 book "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-art-of-the-deal-donald-trump-leadership-2017-1">The Art of the Deal</a>" with Trump — we see how the main lessons from Cohn would be Trump's guiding principles through his career and into his presidency, including attack, attack, attack; deny everything, admit nothing; and always claim victory.That "always claim victory" rule came into play during the 2020 presidential election. After his loss, Trump maintained that the election was stolen from him and that he'd actually won over Joe Biden.Soon after, Pro-Trump insurrectionists attacked the US Capitol in an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, that left four dead. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-denies-responsibility-jan-6-reaffirms-support-mccarthy-leaked-call-2022-4">denied responsibility for the January 6 insurrection</a> and publicly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/videotaped-remarks-the-attack-the-united-states-capitol-the-certification-the-electoral">condemned</a> it as a "heinous attack" that left him "outraged by the violence, lawlessness, and mayhem."<div type="image" title="trump speaking in nevada 2024" height="683" width="1024" msid="114227281" hostid="261" sizebytes="45562"></div>The 2024 presidential election, in which Trump seeks to reclaim the presidency against Vice President Kamala Harris, is now less than a month away.The question of whether Trump will accept the results of this election remains unclear. In May, Trump said he'd <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/02/politics/donald-trump-accept-2024-election-results/index.html">accept the results if "everything's honest."</a> A month later, at the first debate with President Joe Biden, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/trump-2024-election-results">unwilling to say if he would accept the results or not</a>. In August, he told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmfGRdlBq38">CBS News</a> he would accept the results if they were "fair and free."In a recent interview promoting "The Apprentice," Abbasi, who has been studying Trump since he signed on to make the film in 2018, weighed in on whether he believes Trump will accept the results in the event of a loss."I saw, like everyone else, what happened on January 6, which was horrific," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-apprentice-ali-abbasi-director-donald-trump-movie-challenges-2024-10">he told Business Insider</a>. "And I have a feeling that a lot of people got away with insane stuff. Look at that footage.""When you see that, you think, why would they change their opinion about this election? Why would they magically accept this when they didn't accept that?" Abbasi continued.<div type="image" title="Maria Bakalova as Ivana Trump and Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in &quot;The Apprentice.&quot;" height="675" width="1200" msid="114227280" hostid="261" sizebytes="66734"></div>"But somehow, I'm an optimist," he added. "I was optimistic when people told me not to do this movie, or when people said no one would buy this movie. So, I really hope that everyone learned their lesson on January 6th. I hope to think that even though people may be tempted to do that again, they know what the consequences are, and they don't do it."In August 2023, Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-january-6-criminal-indictment-charges-explained-2023-7">indicted on four charges in connection to January 6,</a> including conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction or an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hit-with-revised-january-6-indictment-jack-smith-2024-8">A year later</a>, the four counts were revised to remove some of the alleged conduct that may now be protected by presidential immunity. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/politics/trump-not-guilty-plea-january-6-charges-smith/index.html">pleaded not guilty</a>.After interviewing Abbasi, Business Insider reached out to Trump for comment. A spokesperson for the former president slammed the movie."This 'film' is pure malicious defamation, should never see the light of day, and doesn't even deserve a place in the straight-to-DVD section of a bargain bin at a soon-to-be-closed discount movie store," Trump communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement. "It belongs in a dumpster fire.""The Apprentice" is now playing in theaters.

'The Apprentice' director is 'optimistic' Trump will accept the presidential election results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania.</li><li>With 19 electoral votes, the state was highly coveted by both Trump and Kamala Harris.</li></ul>Former President Donald Trump has won Pennsylvania, the pivotal <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-are-2024-presidential-election-swing-states-trump-harris-polls-2024-11">swing state</a> that was the most coveted state on the electoral map this year.With this victory, called by Fox News, CNN, and NBC News early Wednesday, Trump has secured the state's 19 electoral votes. Most election forecasters ahead of the election considered Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, or the one that would push the race in either candidate's favor. If history holds, the remaining "blue wall" states — Michigan and Wisconsin — may also go the same way. It's been almost 40 years since the Great Lakes battlegrounds haven't voted in unison.Trump's best path to the White House was based on his taking away at least one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">blue-wall states</a>. He won all three in 2016 but watched them narrowly slip away four years later. In 2020, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pennsylvania-presidential-election-2020-live-vote-counts-results-2020">Trump lost Pennsylvania</a> by roughly 81,000 votes. Republicans were hopeful that Trump would fare better without President Joe Biden — who was born in Scranton and for 36 years served as a US senator from neighboring Delaware — on the ballot.The Keystone State's Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, was under consideration to become Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>' running mate. While he was not selected, Shapiro was one of Harris' top surrogates in the state.No part of Pennsylvania was untouched by this unique presidential race, which saw both major-party candidates pour considerable resources into the state.Elon Musk, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">donated over $100 million</a> in favor of electing Trump, also campaigned in the state for the former president.

Trump wins Pennsylvania, the most important swing state in the 2024 election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>There are just 15 days until Election Day.</li><li>The presidential race remains razor close, with control of the White House at a coin-flip.</li></ul>In just over two weeks, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-swing-states-election-2024-10">Election Day 2024</a> will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that, for the moment, remains far too close to call.The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">Kamala Harris</a>' emergence, and two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump's life — control of the White House still hinges on a coin-flip.As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out, the 2024 race is exceptional because there has been little movement in national polling since Labor Day, the traditional starting date of the final pre-Election Day slog. Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are also no major moments left that could presumably shake up the race. All that remains are the unexpected "October surprises," though, in today's media environment, the bar for earth-shattering is pretty hard to cross if you're not North Carolina Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-robinson-trump-north-carolina-gop-harris-election-2024-9">Mark Robinson</a>. (And even then, can one really be surprised when it comes to him?)The good news for Trump is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-election-2024-10">he has gained ground</a> since his widely panned debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average has narrowed by roughly 0.5 percentage points in the past week. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an extremely slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. According to FiveThirtyEight's state averages, Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the three so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.Harris trolled Trump on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from."Well, if you are exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you are fit for the toughest job in the world," Harris said in Michigan, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/18/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327">referencing a Politico report</a> that Trump begged out of an interview due to "exhaustion."In response, Trump said she's a "loser" who "doesn't have the energy of a rabbit."Instead, the former president has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-going-for-crypto-bro-vote-world-liberty-financial-2024-9">hit the podcast circuit hard</a> — approaching the end of the campaign like a retired athlete loaded with stories from the glory days. In all seriousness, his team is focusing on young men. It appears to be working. According to The New York Times, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/18/upshot/polls-trump-harris-young-men.html">Trump leads Harris among young men</a> "58 percent to 37 percent, across the last three Times/Siena national polls." In contrast, Harris is driving an even larger gender gap among young women.In an era of close elections, 2024 is entering the home stretch with the potential to be one of the closest on record.<h2 id="5b26390b-d82d-4995-9be4-9043c97c0ea9">The big names are about to come out.</h2>Amid the final push, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every top Democrat at her beck and call. She's set to stump with both Obamas separately in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also appeared alongside former "Shark Tank" star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-mark-cuban-campaign-swing-states-sec-chair-2024-10">Mark Cuban</a>, her go-to billionaire. Former Congresswoman <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-is-back-on-the-2024-campaign-trail-2024-10">Liz Cheney</a> and other top Republicans will also continue to push Harris' theme of democracy and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his 2020 loss.Harris' team has teased bigger guests. They have touted a Get Out the Vote concert in pop star <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charli-xcx-responds-to-kamala-is-brat-reaction-x-cnn-2024-8">Charli XCX's signature "Brat Green."</a> Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to make the final push. Obama ended his reelection with an Election Eve rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a Bruce Springsteen performance. Clinton called on the Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final 2016 rally in Philadelphia. The pandemic muted the 2020 race, but there's little doubt about big spectacles this time.Trump is getting an early start with a rally in New York City's Madison Square Garden. He's never had as deep of a bench or as glitzy of guests as the Democrats. It's still news when his wife, former first lady <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/melania-trump-book-memoir-scandals-2024-10">Melania Trump,</a> joins him — as she did for Thursday night's Al Smith dinner.The former president's entire appeal is predicated on breaking with traditional US politics. It's why few, if any, GOP standard-bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have also further eroded relationships, namely with his former running mate, Mike Pence, who has said Trump endangered his family. On Friday, "Fox &amp; Friends" cohosts practically begged Trump to campaign with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Instead of talking about his former primary foe, Trump extolled Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-america-super-pac-2024-10">Elon Musk</a>. The world's richest man has donated roughly $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also joined Trump for a recent rally and is now hosting his own series of events.<h2 id="8f498ba3-30f7-454c-82a3-9ead88ce5113">Here's where the all-important Electoral College map stands.</h2>With those numbers in mind, there's a clear picture of how each candidate can win.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Michigan." height="3587" width="5381" msid="114396471" hostid="261" sizebytes="321400"></div><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">Harris' easiest path</a> remains what was once Biden's Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska's blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a razor-close election, there's always the possibility that one could fall out.Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — though the Tar Heel state has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once this century (Obama's 2008 victory). There's also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-trump-georgia-battleground-state-suburbs-2024-8">the possibility of Georgia</a>, a state that you might remember that Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to gerrymander the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump's best plan for Warren Buffett's backyard was a last-minute change to the state law. But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nebraska-2nd-electoral-college-vote-omaha-harris-mcdonnell-2024-9">it didn't work</a>. It means there is still a possibility that Harris wins the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the nation's history.Trump's team once dreamed of flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps even New Mexico in a rout of Biden. Since Harris' rise, they have tried to hang on to North Carolina. It's quite possible Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona, seizing on his increased standing among Black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump's best path remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.

We are 15 days from the 2024 presidential election. Here's where things stand. 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's hybrid warfare tactics against the US and Europe are reaching new levels.</li><li>The disinformation efforts seek to influence elections and stir chaos in domestic politics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/front-line-nato-allies-baltics-face-russian-hybrid-threats-2024-6">Russian disinformation and interference</a> — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and again showed up in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia was conducting "an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry, and committing violence," echoing long-standing concerns.Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling sites in five battleground states were the targets of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-poll-bomb-threats-russia-election-harris-trump-2024-11">hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains</a>, the FBI said, and that was only part of Russian actions.Georgia's Secretary of State accused Moscow of being "up to mischief," saying that "they don't want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory."The Russian embassy in Washington denied the accusations as "malicious slander" and said "Russia has not interfered and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," including the US, but such activities are well documented.<h2 id="193769f6-1321-4ffb-b08c-2325bce96246">Rising levels of interference</h2><div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-US President Donald Trump sit in chairs opposite each other, shaking hands." height="3327" width="4889" msid="115115440" hostid="261" sizebytes="445288"></div>Experts and officials began to seriously take note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US politics in 2016, and it's continually gotten worse."Undoubtedly we've seen an uptick in the scope and scale and, really, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment," Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and the director of engagements at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, told Business Insider.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html">Hybrid warfare</a> covers a range of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation, intended to deniably influence or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.2016 saw the rising influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US foes to stoke violence and unrest, particularly as then-President Donald Trump contested the results and inspired the January 6th insurrection on the US Capitol.A month prior to the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Declassified-Foreign-Threats-to-US-Elections-After-Voting-Ends-in-2024.pdf">warning that Russia, China, and Iran were better equipped to influence the election</a> and undermine confidence in the results due to lessons from 2020; the council cited a range of tactics that could be used, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and encouragement of electoral chaos and violence.<div type="image" title="capitol riot january 6" height="1666" width="2500" msid="115115445" hostid="261" sizebytes="414688"></div>Then, on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries "at a greater level than ever before."The efforts were designed to prompt distrust, fear, and misunderstanding in American voters and raise doubts over the integrity of US democracy. The 2024 presidential election was likely of particular interest to Russia, though, because of what was on the line: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-win-clocking-ticking-on-ukraine-aid-2024-11">US support for Ukraine</a>, of which Trump has been less supportive.<h2 id="a4700f32-0a7c-4d04-93ea-ed4b4b837c59">More than an American problem</h2>This hybrid warfare is a broader problem for other Western countries, too. In recent months, Russia was accused of attempting to undermine Moldova's election in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transportation to get Russians to vote at Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyberattacks and fake bomb threats to out-of-country voting operations.Russia was also recently accused of attempting to interfere in the Republic of Georgia's parliamentary election, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany, and others. The big difference between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-west-must-respond-to-russias-rapidly-escalating-hybrid-warfare/">how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies</a> comes down to the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US' two party system, Russia's focuses on creating discontent within a certain party or between the parties.<div type="image" title="An older woman puts a paper ballot in a box at a voting location in a basketball gym." height="5119" width="7678" msid="115115442" hostid="261" sizebytes="993200"></div>In European democracies, Russia's focus often appears to be creating cracks within how the various parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-European Union or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted, too, as was the case in Moldova's election.Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. "They don't really care about the ideology of the organizations," Livermore said, so long as it "advances the Kremlin's interests."These interference efforts also undermine democracy more generally, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media emphasized deep divisions, dysfunction, and fears of violence in the US.The state-run Beijing Daily, for example, wrote: "the US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called 'beacon of democracy,' may now become the starting gun of 'social unrest.'"Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to indict democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. Notably, experts have assessed Russia, China, and Iran are growing increasingly closer in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.<h2 id="68359602-dfe7-4892-949e-9a8712a6b38f">Weakening the intended effect</h2><div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris stands at a podium delivering her concession speech." height="3182" width="4773" msid="115115448" hostid="261" sizebytes="1578158"></div>After it Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded quickly. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden."For over 200 years, America has carried on the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world," he said, "where the people, the people vote and choose their own leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails."Livermore said that because this election's results, unlike in 2020, aren't being contested, that could mean failure for any hybrid warfare tactics from US adversaries in the months ahead of Inauguration Day. He said Russia, China, and Iran were likely "hoping that they were going to have a couple of months of chaos in the US," but that is now much less likely.US stability in the transition of power can be attributed to lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, on how to maintain trust in the election process and suppress post-election violence.

A worsening kind of Russian warfare was on display in the US presidential election, but it's a much bigger problem

The <keyword id="19895876" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Election-Commission-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Election Commission of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Election Commission of India">Election Commission of India</keyword> (ECI) has officially announced the schedules for the upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, setting the stage for crucial state elections next month. Here’s what voters in these states can expect: <h2>Maharashtra: Single-phase voting on November 20</h2>Maharashtra will head to the polls in a single phase on November 20, with vote counting scheduled for November 23. This election will see a high-stakes contest between two major coalitions: the <keyword id="19924537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Vikas-Aghadi" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Vikas Aghadi" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Vikas Aghadi">Maha Vikas Aghadi</keyword> (MVA) and the <keyword id="21555670" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Maha-Yuti-Alliance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Maha Yuti Alliance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Maha Yuti Alliance">Maha Yuti Alliance</keyword>. The MVA consists of <keyword id="19905331" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Uddhav-Thackeray" source="keywords">Uddhav Thackeray</keyword>'s Shiv Sena (UBT), the <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword>, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under Sharad Pawar. Meanwhile, the Maha Yuti Alliance brings together the <keyword id="19931558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Bharatiya Janata Party" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Bharatiya Janata Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP), Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. This intense battle for control over the 288-seat Maharashtra Assembly follows the end of the current term on November 26. The model code of conduct has come into immediate effect in Maharashtra, guiding political parties on appropriate campaigning practices and ensuring fair elections. <h2>Jharkhand: Two-phase voting on November 13 and 20</h2>In Jharkhand, voting will occur in two phases: the first on November 13 and the second on November 20. The results will be declared on November 23, alongside Maharashtra’s. This election focuses on the 81-seat Assembly, with a fierce competition expected between the ruling <keyword id="20028356" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jharkhand-Mukti-Morcha" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Jharkhand Mukti Morcha">Jharkhand Mukti Morcha</keyword> (JMM)-Congress alliance and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes the BJP, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), and Janata Dal (United). Jharkhand’s current Assembly term expires on January 5, 2025. The elections will feature 29,562 polling stations across urban and rural areas to accommodate the state’s 2.6 crore registered voters. This diverse electorate includes 66.84 lakh young voters and 11.84 lakh first-time voters, with special arrangements for 3.67 lakh persons with disabilities. <h2>Pre-election preparations</h2>The ECI’s preparations for the elections began in September, with teams visiting both states to assess readiness. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, alongside Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu, met with local officials, district collectors, and political representatives to evaluate logistical arrangements and security measures. In Maharashtra, the Maha Yuti Alliance and the MVA have been ramping up their efforts to secure <keyword id="23060079" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="voter-support" source="keywords">voter support</keyword> in what is expected to be a dramatic electoral showdown. In Jharkhand, the ruling JMM, which is part of the INDIA bloc, is eyeing another term despite recent controversies surrounding Chief Minister Hemant Soren, who faced legal challenges earlier this year. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance remains strong, as the party is expected to contest all 81 seats in the Assembly. (With inputs from agencies)

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