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<ul class="summary-list"><li>China is building up and modernizing its military as the US strives to maintain its edge.</li><li>The focus on advanced technologies has put the two countries into a different kind of arms race.</li></ul>China is "in a race for technological superiority" with the US, the Air Force secretary said this week, noting that as China becomes increasingly confident in its armed forces and its ability to use them to advance its national interests, "we'll be in a period of much greater risk."In some areas, such as missiles, China appears to have an edge over American forces, he said, and its pursuit of advanced satellites and automated battle management systems have grabbed the attention of American officials as the US considers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-not-ready-china-war-military-economy-2023-5">what a potential conflict between the two powers could look like</a>. This race goes much deeper, though.On Tuesday, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said China has been effectively modernizing the People's Liberation Army, fielding systems with the intent of challenging US forces, especially its high-value combat assets like carriers and satellites.Kendall <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://vimeo.com/event/4681487/aae7018489?utm_campaign=2024%20Microelectronics%20Commons&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_hVVt4JaJrhQkWlVRye5kJaIPAdVqBEZfwQ2uHjr0IVycuutTNsV5x5foMMHDwRhDKcPic1qw5pETOa_xtxan-DGFXdxyv3uucu8GfciSheefg0Lc&amp;_hsmi=331115123&amp;utm_content=331115123&amp;utm_source=hs_automation">said</a> at the Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium this week that China had long been taking notes on how the US military operates, "and they were not just designing their equipment and the things they were buying around being able to defeat the US," he said, "their entire military was being designed around that."<div type="image" title="A video released by China shows off the missiles it could fire at Taiwan in a mass attack." height="1136" width="2141" msid="114792219" hostid="261" sizebytes="73808"></div>The Department of Defense has tracked monumental growth in the Chinese military for years, documenting investments in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-shipbuilding-power-players-making-warships-at-a-rapid-pace-2024-9">warships</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">bolstered missile capabilities and stockpiles</a>, and advanced space and cyber assets. The US military refers to Beijing as its "pacing challenge," putting emphasis on the Indo-Pacific.But despite US efforts to keep up-to-date with China's modernization, Kendall said, in some ways, "we've let them steal a march on us, quite frankly, in the systems they've fielded, that includes cruise and ballistic missiles, hypersonics," and "hundreds of satellites designed to target our joint force," as well as advanced battle management systems to integrate and control combat assets with a high degree of automation.China has built up its Rocket Force, developing capabilities that put US military assets at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-pacific-bases-aircraft-vulnerable-to-chinese-missiles-lawmakers-2024-5">military bases and airfields across the Indo-Pacific within striking range</a>. Its force includes more traditional systems, as well as newer weapons, like the DF-17 hypersonic missile.Kendall also noted some of the Chinese air force's air-to-air missiles have the ranges to go after tankers and command-and-control aircraft, for example, which "traditionally have operated out or range of the threats and been able to operate pretty much with impunity," he said. "That's being erased; we don't have that capability anymore."<div type="image" title="A US aircraft carrier sails in the Pacific Ocean with a cloudy sunset in the background." height="1474" width="2211" msid="114792221" hostid="261" sizebytes="76930"></div>The battlespace is changing, and across the board, the developments being made in advanced warfighting technologies have created what Kendall has called "a race for technological superiority" rather than a "classic arms race." It's no longer just about how many warships a country has.A key part of the new arms race is artificial intelligence, which "China is moving forward aggressively in," Kendall said, adding that the applications of AI are already being seen in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/drones-in-ukraine-war-soon-wont-need-human-pilots-commander-2024-9">the war in Ukraine</a> and in the Middle East, "changing the character of warfare."The Air Force secretary said that he doesn't think people who say that AI is "going to determine who's the winner in the next battlefield" are "all that far off."Like China and other militaries, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-allies-ai-target-enemies-like-would-war-first-time-2024-8">US has also made AI a top priority in its military developments</a> across the joint force, pursuing autonomous capabilities and ways to implement AI into decision-making, pattern recognition, and various assets and weapons.For the US Air Force, for example, that line of effort has been evident in its testing of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-militarys-ai-fighter-jet-pilot-making-dramatic-advances-officer-2024-6">AI agents flying fighter jets</a> and in the collaborative combat aircraft and "loyal wingman" programs. Earlier this year, Kendall flew in an AI-controlled F-16, which squared off in a dogfight against a manned F-16.<div type="image" title="A screenshot from video footage of the real-world test of a dogfight between an AI-controlled fighter and a manned fighter." height="1564" width="2880" msid="114792223" hostid="261" sizebytes="94014"></div>Officials said at the time that the testing marked "an important milestone" for the program and spoke to growing "confidence in the state of combat autonomy." Previous testing of AI agents has also proven effective, with officials noting that AI programs can quickly be adjusted based on new data, scenarios, and performance.In another example, the Marines, working with the Air Force and Navy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-marines-unmanned-aircraft-targeting-data-for-f-35-jets-2024-10">recently tested a "loyal wingman" experimental autonomous unmanned aerial combat vehicle</a> alongside F-35 stealth fighters, showing how the military is pushing the manned-unmanned teaming concept "a step further" for the joint force, an official said.As the US and other powers pursue this emerging new technology at breakneck speeds, there have been questions about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-using-ai-gaza-targets-terrifying-glimpse-at-future-war-2024-4">what the role of AI will be in the military and future warfare</a>. War analysts and strategists have said the US military and others need a plan for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/future-of-warfare-is-catastrophic-and-robotic-former-general-says-2023-5">AI and autonomy</a> sooner rather than later.

The US is in a technological arms race with China, Air Force secretary says, and AI could decide who wins

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/madison-marsh-air-force-miss-america-duties-photos-2024-5">Madison Marsh</a> is bridging the divide between the US military and pageantry.</li><li>As Miss America and a US Air Force officer, she aims to dispel long-held misconceptions about both.</li></ul>The US military and beauty pageantry are often seen as polar opposites — one known for toughness, discipline, and combat readiness, and the other for elegance, grace, and competition for a crown.Madison Marsh, a US Air Force second lieutenant and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-officer-madison-marsh-crowned-miss-america-photos-2024-1">Miss America 2024</a>, is on a mission to show that the two worlds are not so different.Marsh spent the last year in both crown and sash and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-force-officer-madison-marsh-crowned-miss-america-photos-2024-1">USAF uniform</a>, serving as an active-duty officer and pageant titleholder. In an interview with Business Insider, the 23-year-old said she'd used her platform to show there's no conflict between being a military officer and a beauty contestant."A lot of people don't understand what military services are, or maybe they have some of the outdated views on how the Air Force used to operate," Marsh said. "Now I'm getting to change the idea of showing people that the Air Force is rebranding itself. We are in a new phase where the Air Force is inviting others to take charge of their passions outside of the uniform."Marsh said she is also urging people to look beyond the glitz and glam of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vintage-photos-of-miss-america-beauty-pageants">Miss America</a> to see the deeper purpose behind the century-old competition."We often have to explain to people how pageants aren't stereotypically what people believe them to be," she said. "The pageant, as in Miss America, that I compete in is about community service, leadership, and public speaking — all of these core skills and values that hold to be true in the Air Force as well."<div type="image" title="Madison Marsh salutes with Joe Biden on a large videoscreen in the background" height="665" width="999" msid="113966827" hostid="261" sizebytes="22442"></div>Breaking these long-held stereotypes was not one she "actively" wanted when she became the first active-duty officer to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miss-colorado-madison-marsh-crowned-miss-america-air-force-harvard-2024-1">crowned Miss America</a>, she said."I didn't step into this role trying or actively wanting to break those stereotypes. I was simply just doing something that I loved," she said. "In the process of being authentically me and ensuring that I still did all the things that I loved, I was able to break some of those stereotypes and show people that if you have passion in different areas, even if they're conflicting with one another, you can still get it done."Nonetheless, the task came easily to her, she said, as she drew on her own fears and uncertainties prior to attending the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/every-uniform-us-air-force-academy-cadet-issued-2023-8">US Air Force Academy</a> to quell those in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-new-air-force-cadets-go-through-on-day-one-2021-7">potential future cadets</a>.After her win in January, Marsh embarked on a national tour, returning to her hometown of Fort Smith, Arkansas, throwing the first pitch at a Nationals game, and giving her fellow Miss America delegates a tour of the Air Force Academy.Her Miss America title took her overseas as well, speaking with Royal Air Force cadets in the United Kingdom at the world's largest military air show and commemorating the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, France.And in her 10-month reign as Miss America, Marsh said she is already seeing an impact."This young freshman came up to me with her and her mom, and she told me that she was really considering not going to the [US Air Force] Academy anymore until she had seen that I became Miss America because that showed her that she could still be feminine in and out of uniform, that she could still be herself, that she could still take charge of her outside passions while still serving," Marsh said.<div type="image" title="Madison Marsh smiles for a photo in front of an aircraft displaying &quot;US Air Force.&quot;" height="643" width="1000" msid="113966823" hostid="261" sizebytes="19194"></div>Marsh doesn't have to take up the mantle of representing military women in the world of pageantry alone. In August, 2nd Lt. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miss-usa-alma-cooper-army-west-point-pageants-2024-8">Alma Cooper</a>, a US Army military intelligence officer, was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-miss-usa-michigan-us-army-officer-2024-8">crowned</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miss-usa">Miss USA</a> after a tumultuous year in one of the country's biggest pageants.While the new titleholders haven't connected about their respective wins, Marsh said Cooper is "another great representative who can talk about what it means to be a woman in the Army, and hopefully, that can bring some better recruiting in that area as well."With both <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miss-usa-miss-america-pageant-differences">Miss America and Miss USA</a> being active-duty officers, Marsh said it's "giving a broader representation of the direction that the military is moving in" — where service members have the freedom to pursue outside passions and interests even if they're high-profile.Beyond pageantry and military, Marsh champions awareness and advocacy for pancreatic cancer, the disease that took her mother Whitney's life when Madison was just 17. She turned her grief into action, founding a nonprofit named after her mother, Whitney Marsh Foundation, assisting in pancreatic cancer research, and pursuing a master's degree in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, which she deferred until January as she balances pageant duties and active duty.As Marsh approaches her last few months as Miss America, several paths lie before her as she looks to the future — whether it be attending flight school to become an Air Force pilot (she already has a civilian pilot's license), continuing her master's degree to shape future public health policies, or participating in more research and advocacy for pancreatic cancer.<div type="image" title="Madison Marsh sits on the ramp of a C-130J in flight" height="665" width="999" msid="113966828" hostid="261" sizebytes="30540"></div>If there's one thing that people will take away from her reign, Marsh said she hopes she's shown that putting on a uniform — be it crown and sash or flight suit — adds to your identity, not takes away from it."Now we can start to talk about these misconceptions that the general public has, showing that you don't have to give up these vital, passionate parts of yourself to put on that uniform," Marsh said."My passion for serving the pancreatic cancer community still exists when I put on that uniform every morning," she added, "and that's what the military now wants us to move toward: recognizing we don't have to give up these outside passions to still serve."

Miss America Madison Marsh says people just keep getting pageantry and the Air Force wrong

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Secretary of the US Air Force said war with China in the Pacific was not "imminent or inevitable."</li><li>Even so, Frank Kendall said the likelihood of one is growing and will continue to grow.</li></ul>A war between the US and China in the Pacific is not "imminent or inevitable," but the threat of one is growing, according to a top US military official.Frank Kendall, the US Air Force Secretary, made the assessment during a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3907669/threat-from-china-increasing-air-force-official-says/">keynote address</a> at an Air &amp; Space Forces Association convention on Monday."I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not," Kendall said. "But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so."Kendall cited China's growing capabilities, and pointed to it staging more extensive and advanced military drills that he said were aimed at an invasion and blockade of Taiwan.He also mentioned China's heavy investments in military organizations, capabilities, and operational concepts, which he said are specially aimed at thwarting the US and its allies' capacity to project power in the Western Pacific."I've been closely watching the evolution of [China's] military for 15 years. China is not a future threat; China is a threat today," he said.One of the main flashpoints between the US and China could be over Taiwan, although there's also growing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">tension between China and the Philipines</a>, another US ally.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1833689816934052077">daily</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1834396587218338127">updates</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1834758971132964868">shared</a> by Taiwan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1835483741210251437">defense</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1835846132162834678">ministry</a>, China's aircraft, vessels, and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait and causing Taiwan to scramble its planes.But experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">said</a> in May that an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign — short of war but still threatening — was more likely than a full-scale invasion, and that the US needed to prepare for such an eventuality.For decades, the US has adopted "<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">strategic ambiguity</a>" toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the island's most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.But the FT <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-six-preparing-china-invasion-of-taiwan-report-2024-9">reported</a> last week that preparations for a possible China attack had intensified since Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, said in 2021 that China may invade Taiwan by 2027.It also reported that Navy SEAL Team 6, an elite military special-missions unit, has spent more than a year planning and training at its Dam Neck base in Virginia Beach for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.In January, US officials also told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/logistics-war-how-washington-is-preparing-chinese-invasion-taiwan-2024-01-31/">Reuters</a> the US is trying to spread its military logistics hubs across the Pacific, including warehouses in Australia.Kendall said that over the past 15 years, he's seen growing concern and alarm from other countries in the Indo-Pacific region over China's capabilities and intentions.He also said that "China continues to expand its nuclear forces and its ability to operate in cyberspace," and that "we can expect all these trends to continue.""To prevent conflict, we must be ready," he said.

US Air Force says war with China in the Pacific is not 'imminent or inevitable' but the threat is growing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's air defenses are being stretched, forcing it to choose where to send protection.</li><li>Experts say Ukraine's increased attacks on Russia have exposed and created gaps in its coverage.</li></ul>Russia's air defenses are being stretched, putting the country in a position where it has to decide what to protect.Air defenses have been one of the most crucial pieces of weaponry in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-putin-politics-motive-2023-6">Russia's invasion of Ukraine</a>, and both sides have been using them to defend against drone and missile attacks and to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-teaching-nato-air-forces-lessons-fighting-russia-2024-7">stop each others' aircraft from flying into their air space</a>.But because of Ukraine's successful strikes and recent tactics, Russia now has to decide where to put its air defenses.And that's giving Ukraine new opportunities to target weaker areas, warfare experts told Business Insider.<h2 id="7cce73f6-a445-4fad-81d4-c28393d372f9">Russia's defenses are eroded</h2>Last month, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said in their war update that Russia did not appear to have enough air defenses to protect everything it needed to — even in supposedly secure areas.George Barros, a Russia analyst at the ISW, told BI that Russia has arranged its defenses to protect the areas that are most under threat, which means that other areas are then exposed.<div type="image" title="A rocket launches from a S-400 missile system against a dark blue sky." height="1331" width="2000" msid="112863675" hostid="261" sizebytes="52136"></div>If Ukraine can get past that first line of defense, then it can get deeper into Russia, where the country is "not adequately protected," he said.Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-destroyed-russian-air-defense-systems-2024-7">said it destroyed 59 Russian air defense systems in June</a>, its second-highest monthly total in the war (after 73 in July 2023).Those figures are not independently confirmed, and there is no objective figure for the number of Russian air defense systems that have been damaged or destroyed.But Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-s-400-formidable-not-quite-up-to-the-hype-2024-5">has been observed destroying a host of systems, including many of Russia's most advanced ones</a>.<h2 id="e374a7d9-2003-4565-b368-9ba80ad368f0">Ukraine is hitting Russia more</h2>Ukraine is forcing Russia to consider where to defend by hitting more and more sites in Russia, the experts said.Western allies recently gave Ukraine permission to use their weapons to hit some military targets in Russia, whereas before, it was limited only to targets in Russian-held territory in Ukraine.Ukraine has also escalated its drone campaign, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-struck-oil-refinery-930-miles-into-russia-drone-2024-5">hitting airfields and oil facilities, sometimes hundreds of miles inside Russia</a>.Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at UK think tank Royal United Services Institute, said in June that Ukraine appeared to be pursuing a clear strategy to force Russia's air force "to either vacate its bases within several hundred miles of Ukraine's borders or dedicate an inordinate quantity of air defense systems to defending them."The ISW's update last month said Ukraine's increasing drone attacks had stretched Russia's capabilities, and that the strikes "continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets."<div type="image" title="An image purporting to show a destroyed Russian S-400 launcher." height="556" width="1018" msid="112863678" hostid="261" sizebytes="22630"></div>It added that satellite imagery from May suggested Russia had concentrated some systems around Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Leningrad Oblast.Riley Bailey, a Russia analyst at the ISW, told BI that Ukraine's escalating, near-daily strikes put more pressure than ever on Russia's military command.Michael Clarke, a Russia and Ukraine expert at RUSI and King's College London, who's also a UK national security advisor, said Russia had never anticipated being in a war where drones would feature as heavily as they have in this one.The head of the Russian region of Tatarstan said in April that Russian companies and local authorities must defend themselves against Ukrainian drone strikes instead of relying on the state's defenses after targets in the region were struck.The ISW called that "a clear acknowledgment and admonition of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) failure to defend Russian cities and critical infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes."<div type="image" title="Ukrainian soldiers operating a drone during training of the 22nd brigade in Donetsk oblast, Ukraine" height="1333" width="2000" msid="112863682" hostid="261" sizebytes="95918"></div>Bailey said this was happening "because Russia doesn't have enough assets to widely cover Western Russia against these regular drone strikes."<h2 id="844e3648-6e1f-47f9-b50f-a40582eef7c1">The problem is heightened in Crimea</h2>Ukraine has specifically targeted Crimea, the peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014.Bailey said Ukraine has conducted a "pretty consistent" campaign to target Russia's air defenses in Crimea and strain Russian air defenses.The UK Ministry of Defense <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1791744851182063715">said</a> in April that the cumulative effect of Ukraine's attacks on defenses in the peninsula hurt Russia's ability to defend the Crimea airspace.Clarke, the Russia and Ukraine expert at RUSI and King's College, said Ukraine has been "quite successful, particularly in Crimea, in destroying some of the Russian radars and antiaircraft systems."He described Ukraine as attacking Russia's air defense network "and then using the holes in the network that they created to go through and attack the air bases, or in some cases, Sevastopol, the naval base."He also said Russia's defenses have become more stretched than ever as, with the frontline static, Ukraine has increasingly focused on hitting into Russia's occupied territories and into Russia itself.<div type="image" title="A Russian airfield near Sevastopol, Crimea on Mar. 10, 2023." height="1080" width="1920" msid="112863683" hostid="261" sizebytes="105274"></div>Ukraine's repeated strikes have resulted in reports that the Russian military has had to constantly move systems in Crimea, making it harder to continue using the peninsula as a military logistic hub and staging ground, Bailey said.And Ukraine's attacks elsewhere in Russia appear to be making it harder for Russia's presence in Crimea.Ukrainian partisan group ATESH <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/atesh_ua/4820">said</a> in June that Russia moved defenses from the peninsula to the Russian region of Belgorod, where Ukraine was attacking.<h2 id="97a3d798-63c6-44df-b6f6-76bf276b3e24">It's an air defense war</h2>Analysts point to the current conflict as one that has become largely an air defense war — and one where Russia still has the upper hand.Ukraine's air defenses are much smaller, and it frequently runs low on equipment.<div type="image" title="A Patriot air defense system firing an interceptor missile in Greece with flame erupting out of the launcher." height="1080" width="1920" msid="112863676" hostid="261" sizebytes="108940"></div>Meanwhile, Russia's air defense arsenal remains formidable.Ukraine is also at a disadvantage, warfare experts said, because the US will not let it use the long-range weapons it has given to hit deep into Russia, where Russia keeps many of the aircraft it uses to launch attacks on Ukraine.Getting that permission and more aircraft would create a more even playing field.And being able to hit more targets in Russia would allow Ukraine to stop more attacks at their source — likely forcing Russia to make even more decisions about where to put its air defenses, and what areas to leave vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.

Russia feels unfamiliar pain as Ukraine hobbles its air defenses, forcing it to make tough choices

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Navy SEAL unit is busy preparing for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Financial Times said.</li><li>It may be training Taiwan's forces to fight back against Chinese forces, retired Navy officers told BI.</li></ul>An elite Navy SEAL unit may be preparing Taiwanese forces for reconnaissance operations and missions to repel a Chinese invasion, retired Navy officers said after a report said the unit had been training for such an eventuality for over a year.Last week, the Financial Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-six-preparing-china-invasion-of-taiwan-report-2024-9">reported</a> that SEAL Team 6 — famous for killing Osama bin Laden in 2011 — has spent more than a year planning and training at its Dam Neck base in Virginia for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.The unit is conducts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-six-preparing-china-invasion-of-taiwan-report-2024-9">sensitive missions</a> around the world, including battles in Afghanistan in 2002, a presence in Yemen, Syria, and Somalia in the early 2000s, and the 2011 nighttime raid on bin Laden's compound in Pakistan.However, the unit's contingency plans — like most of its missions — are highly classified, and people familiar with its planning did not provide details to the FT about the specific missions it's preparing for.According to three retired Navy officers, the unit may be training Taiwanese soldiers to fight back against China should it invade Taiwan.Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expects SEALs to do two things.One, he told BI, "is training Taiwanese forces in reconnaissance and perhaps direct attack, focusing on missions that might be required to defeat a Chinese invasion.""Naval reconnaissance forces would locate Chinese forces for long-range attacks," he said, adding: "They might also launch attacks against offshore ships or shipping in Chinese ports."Another one, he said, is familiarizing themselves with the terrain so that they might be better employed if necessary.Bradley Martin, a retired surface warfare captain who served in the Navy for 30 years, said the SEALs' "broad" missions include intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and potential actions against an invading force.Those are "well-established in the SEAL mission set," he told BI.Sam Tangredi, a retired US Navy captain and surface warfare officer, made a similar assessment.He told BI that in a "conventional" war between the US, its allies, and China, SEALs would likely take on their "traditional" naval roles.These include direct reconnaissance of coastal areas before major amphibious-type operations, identifying naval mined areas and obtaining knowledge of capabilities and mine patterns, sabotage operations against enemy naval units and ports, and land operations from the sea, he said."A 'great power war' — which inevitably involved oceans or ocean access — would require the traditional naval role," he said."After all, Taiwan is an island. The bulk of PRC combat capabilities in an invasion would travel by sea," he said, using the initials of the People's Republic of China.<div type="image" title="Taiwanese forces launched a US-made anti-tank missile during a live fire exercise in Pingtung County, Taiwan, on August 26, 2024." height="3346" width="5019" msid="113464354" hostid="261" sizebytes="225342"></div><h2 id="b9de4c6e-a818-44d0-9ce9-52588c001e61">Preparing Taiwan for an attack</h2>For decades, the US has adopted "<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">strategic ambiguity</a>" toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the island's most steadfast ally while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.However, over the last few years, the mood in Washington, DC, has shifted toward greater hawkishness, Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">told Business Insider</a> last November.President Joe Biden himself <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://time.com/6984968/joe-biden-transcript-2024-interview/">has</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/21/politics/taiwan-china-biden-town-hall/index.html">repeatedly</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-taiwan-60-minutes-2022-09-18/">suggested</a> the US would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-60-minutes-interview-transcript-2022-09-18/">respond</a> militarily if China attacked Taiwan.Reports have already given clues as to how the US is preparing for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.Last year, US officials told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-expand-troop-presence-in-taiwan-for-training-against-china-threat-62198a83">The Wall Street Journal</a> that the US planned to quadruple the number of troops deployed to Taiwan compared to the year before, from about 30 in 2022 to between 100 and 200 soldiers in 2023.In January, US officials told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/logistics-war-how-washington-is-preparing-chinese-invasion-taiwan-2024-01-31/">Reuters</a> the US is trying to spread its military logistics hubs across the Pacific, including warehouses in Australia.Speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Shangri-La Dialogue Summit in June, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/10/taiwan-china-hellscape-military-plan/">told</a> The Washington Post that one of the US' plans is to launch thousands of uncrewed systems, from surface vessels and submarines to aerial drones, to fight any Chinese invasion as soon as it begins to cross the Taiwan Strait.According to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481">report</a> by the Congressional Research Service, Taiwan is also one of the largest purchasers of US defense equipment.Martin said he would expect SEALs to be involved in a contingency response but added that didn't represent a change in current US policy."There might be more attention than in previous periods, but contingency planning has been going on for decades," he said.Cancian said contingency plans were not policies or commitments."The United States has not abandoned strategic ambiguity," he said.<div type="image" title="Taiwanese soldiers used the M110 American self-propelled howitzers during live-ammunition artillery training at a coastal area in Taichung, Taiwan, on August 8, 2024." height="3335" width="5000" msid="113464356" hostid="261" sizebytes="660040"></div><h2 id="c46826c9-0c3c-4769-9eca-b4c2d92300cf">Preparations intensified after a US admiral predicted China could invade Taiwan by 2027</h2>In its report on SEAL Team 6, the FT said preparations had intensified since Adm. Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, said that China may invade Taiwan by 2027.During a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/21-10_03-09-2021.pdf">2021 hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee</a>, Davidson said Taiwan was "clearly" one of China's "ambitions" and that he believed the threat would be "manifest" in the "next six years."Since then, military experts and former defense officials have made similar assessments, some varying on China's timeline and means, while others focused on which allies Taiwan could rely on.Most say signs — like China's rapid modernization of its armed forces over the past two decades and drills around Taiwan — <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">point</a> to Chinese military action to seize the island by force, possibly in just a few years.<div type="image" title="A screen grab captured from a video shows the Chinese People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command launching large-scale joint military exercises around Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in China on May 24, 2024." height="1342" width="2400" msid="113464351" hostid="261" sizebytes="120472"></div>But experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">said</a> in May that an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign — short of war but still threatening — was more likely than a full-scale invasion and that the US needed to prepare for such an eventuality.Adm. Paparo told Japan's <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/China-s-drills-appear-to-be-rehearsal-for-Taiwan-invasion-U.S.-admiral?utm_campaign=GL_indo_pacific&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=NA_newsletter&amp;utm_content=article_link">Nikkei newspaper</a> in May that China's two-day drills around the island "looked like a rehearsal" for an invasion.A June <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-war-us-no-allies-2024-7">report</a> from the American think tank RAND Corp. said the US might have to defend Taiwan alone, as several of its biggest allies were unlikely to commit troops.Meanwhile, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said this week that he'd seen growing concern and alarm from other countries in the Indo-Pacific region over China's capabilities and intentions over the past 15 years.Speaking at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-war-pacific-not-imminent-threat-growing-us-air-force-2024-9">keynote address</a> at an Air &amp; Space Forces Association convention, he said that the threat of a war between the US and China was growing."I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not," Kendall said. "But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so."

A Navy SEAL unit that killed Osama bin Laden may be training Taiwanese forces to defeat a possible Chinese invasion, experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A US B-2 Spirit bomber flew with Japanese F-35 stealth fighters for the first time.</li><li>The aircraft rendezvoused as part of ongoing Bomber Task Force operations in the Indo-Pacific.</li></ul>New photos captured a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-than-half-air-forces-b2-stealth-bombers-mass-fly-2024-4">US B-2 Spirit bomber</a> flying with Japanese F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft for the first time.The aircraft flew together in the Indo-Pacific as part of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-2-stealth-bombers-flying-air-force-grounded-fleet-months-2023-5">ongoing Bomber Task Force mission</a>, which integrates bombers into operations with US allies and partners and demonstrates the ability to operate bombers anywhere in the world.US Pacific Air Forces shared photos on Wednesday that showed the B-2 and F-35As flying in formation.<div type="image" title="Four Japanese F-35 Lightning II fighter jets and a US B-2 Spirit bomber fly over a cloudy sky. The photo is taken from inside the hanger of another aircraft." height="2731" width="4096" msid="113300898" hostid="261" sizebytes="250752"></div>The operation was the first time that a B-2 stealth bomber has flown with Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-35s, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pacaf.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3902576/strength-through-integration-b-2-spirit-joins-forces-with-jasdf-f-35s-for-the-f/">press release</a> from PACAF.The US Air Force B-2 launched from Royal Australian Air Force Base Amberley in Australia. Once the B-2 rendezvoused with the Japanese fighters, the "pilots conducted integration and aerial refueling operations," PACAF said.B-2s, normally stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, have been conducting Bomber Task Force missions for the past three weeks. But Wednesday's event was significant, PACAF said.Lt. Col. Justin Meyer, the 110th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron commander, said that "the opportunity to integrate our B-2 Spirit pilots with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force 5th generation aircraft is a significant milestone for our bilateral integration operations."<div type="image" title="Two Japanese F-35 Lightning II fighter jets fly alongside a US B-2 Spirit bomber over a cloudy sky. A refueling aircraft's flying boom is in the foreground." height="3786" width="6407" msid="113300907" hostid="261" sizebytes="356480"></div>"The advanced capabilities of these aircraft, combined with the strategic prowess of the B-2, enhance our collective readiness and interoperability. This collaboration not only strengthens our defense posture but also underscores our commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the region," he added.Bomber Task Force operations are a priority for the US Air Force, as it seeks to demonstrate its capability and integrate its bomber aircraft, such as the stealth B-2 Spirit, supersonic B-1 Lancer, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-52-bomber-faces-more-delays-rising-costs-new-upgrades-2024-6">B-52 Stratofortresses</a>, into missions with US allies and partners.The goal of the operations in the Indo-Pacific, according to Pacific Air Forces, is to "demonstrate the credibility of US forces to address a complex and uncertain security environment. These operations showcase the United States' commitment to train alongside allies and partners in order to build interoperability and bolster a collective ability to support <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-testing-how-quickly-mass-airpower-in-pacific-2024-8">a free and open Indo-Pacific</a>."<div type="image" title="Multiple B-2 Spirits on a flight line on a stormy day." height="2010" width="3020" msid="113300897" hostid="261" sizebytes="125546"></div>The B-2 Spirit, a strategic bomber, boasts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-2-spirit-stealth-bomber-what-is-feared-2018-2">massive firepower and stealth capabilities</a> that differentiate it from most other US bombers, aside from the new B-21 Raider. Its payload capacity and ability to execute long-range penetrating strike missions make it a significant deterrent to US adversaries.The aircraft first saw combat during the Kosovo War in 1999, striking Serbian targets with conventional munitions, and has since flown sorties over Iraq, Afghanistan, and other conflict areas. The bombers routinely fly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.<div type="image" title="A US Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber is refueled on tarmac at nighttime." height="2725" width="4096" msid="113300901" hostid="261" sizebytes="699946"></div>A day after posting photos of the B-2 and F-35s together, US Indo-Pacific Command <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834215383785410726">shared pictures</a> of a B-2 conducting a hot-pit refueling in Guam. The practice involves refueling an aircraft while the engines are still running so that it can immediately take off again.INDOPACOM said that the mission demonstrated "capabilities of deployed assets to sustain flight operations that deter malign actors in the free and open Pacific."

Photos show a US Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber flying with Japanese F-35s for the first time

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US Air Force held a competition for its MQ-9 Reaper drones last week.</li><li>One photo from the event shows a drone operator sitting in front of a map of Mischief Reef.</li></ul>A newly released photo suggests a recent US Air Force Reaper combat drone event appears to have been focused to some degree on an artificial Chinese island in the South China Sea.Dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drone squadrons flocked to Hurlburt Field in Florida last week for an annual competition that tests the skills of pilots and sensor operators, who engaged in brief tactical scenarios to test their combat decision-making and capabilities, the 1st Special Operations Wing said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dvidshub.net/news/480626/reaper-smoke-2024-promotes-innovation-builds-camaraderie">statement</a> on Wednesday.The unit said the pilots and sensor operators faced "challenges that ranged from general tactical maneuvers to specialized skills requiring precise and advanced techniques, reflecting the evolving nature of modern warfare."The Air Force published several photos from the competition, known as Reaper Smoke 2024. One showed a drone pilot and a sensor operator assigned to the 25th Operations Support Squadron working in front of multiple screens.One of the screens featured a map of Mischief Reef and the surrounding area in the contested Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. Mischief Reef is located just miles away from the Second Thomas Shoal, another disputed territory, and several other screens feature what appears to be a satellite image of the reef.<div type="image" title="A US Air Force MQ-9 pilot, left, and sensor operator, right, assigned to the 25th Operations Support Squadron participate in Reaper Smoke 2024 on September 5." height="1446" width="2168" msid="113332069" hostid="261" sizebytes="132186"></div><div type="image" title="A close-up view of a screen that includes a map of Mischief Reef and the Second Thomas Shoal." height="1418" width="2142" msid="113332068" hostid="261" sizebytes="235056"></div>China has built up Mischief Reef over the years, essentially turning it into an artificial island that functions as a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-show-details-of-chinese-south-china-sea-military-bases-2022-12">small Chinese military outpost</a>. The US and its allies and partners have criticized this activity as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/30/south-china-sea-map-visual-guide-key-shoals-reefs-islands">the atoll is considered</a> part of the Philippines' exclusive economic zone.The Chinese Mischief Reef military outpost features an airstrip, missile systems, and jamming equipment, among other capabilities. Beijing has made <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-show-details-of-chinese-south-china-sea-military-bases-2022-12">similar efforts to arm nearby atolls</a> in the area, which is hundreds of miles away from the Chinese coastline.The South China Sea has long been a source of tension between the US and China, as well as a number of other Indo-Pacific nations. Beijing claims sovereignty over vast swaths of this strategic waterway, and Washington and its partners routinely criticize Beijing over its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">increasingly aggressive behavior</a> to enforce its control, such as its recent clashes with the Philippines.<div type="image" title="Satellite imagery of the Mischief Reef in the South China Sea." height="1438" width="1966" msid="113332070" hostid="261" sizebytes="66530"></div>The map in the Air Force photos suggests that the reef may have been a simulated target in last week's Reaper drone exercise, though the Air Force has not explicitly stated that. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-weapon-sinks-warships-cant-fight-china-navy-2024-8">potential future clash</a> between the US and China in the Pacific could see American forces go after the site with MQ-9s or other assets that they have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2023/08/03/marine-corps-now-has-unit-in-indo-pacific-flying-reaper-drones/">stationed in the region</a>.The 1st Special Operations Wing did not mention Mischief Reef in its release, and Air Force Special Operations Command did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider on the photo."Air Force Special Operations Command is focused on specialized air power," said Col. Mark Jones, AFSOC concepts and capabilities development division chief, in the Wednesday release."The MQ-9 inside AFSOC is focused on training the fundamentals — training Airmen to be skilled and adapt to use the MQ-9 in ways we haven't used it before, for the future," he said.

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