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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia could offer support to the Iran-backed Houthis as they menace key shipping lanes.</li><li>A senior US State Department official said Moscow is engaging with the rebels at a "serious level."</li></ul>Russia could decide to help the Houthis with their Red Sea attacks and is engaging with the Iran-backed rebels at a "serious level," a senior US State Department official said.The Houthis have long received <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-battles-best-iranian-tech-red-sea-admiral-2024-10">extensive support from Iran</a>, including weapons and training, which the rebels have relied on over the past year to carry out attacks on military and civilian vessels transiting key Middle Eastern shipping lanes.But the State Department has grown increasingly concerned in recent months that the Houthis could be receiving assistance from another country: Russia, US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking told Business Insider in a recent interview."It does seem as though there is a fairly serious level of engagement happening," Lenderking said of the Houthis and Russia. "We are particularly concerned about the kind of equipment that would really enable the Houthis to be more accurate in their targeting of US and other ships in the region — that would enhance the Houthi capability to strike those targets."<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin exits his limousine as he arrives at Red Square in Moscow earlier this month." height="3456" width="5184" msid="115428314" hostid="261" sizebytes="326430"></div>Lenderking said the US has discussed the situation at "high levels" with Saudi Arabia, a partner nation that fought the Houthis for years, and with Russia as well. The relationship between Washington and Moscow has been fraught with tension since the latter invaded Ukraine in February 2022.The US has also made efforts to convey messages to the Houthis. Lenderking said that the Yemeni rebels appear to be determined to strike the American and European warships that have spent the past year <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/photo-nato-warship-destroys-drone-boat-red-sea-rescue-mission-2024-8">defending merchant shipping</a> from their relentless attacks."The fact that the Russians might assist in this effort is diabolical," Lenderking said. "It's a very strong concern."The full scope of Russian support for the Houthis is unclear. Some Western media reports suggest that Moscow has already provided the rebels with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-provided-targeting-data-for-houthi-assault-on-global-shipping-eabc2c2b">targeting data</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/russia-houthis-weapons.html">small arms</a> and was considering supplying them with missiles — a development that could significantly escalate the conflict.The Houthis are known to have received help from outside of Yemen. A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-got-help-from-iran-others-for-dangerous-weapons-un-2024-11">recent United Nations report</a> found that the rebels have been getting weapons, training, technical assistance, and financial support from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and armed Iraqi groups.<div type="image" title="Newly affiliated Houthi fighters shout slogans while attending a demonstration against Israel and in solidarity with Palestinians in Yemen in October." height="3651" width="5476" msid="115428315" hostid="261" sizebytes="1188336"></div>Russia and Iran have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-russian-cargo-ship-transported-iranian-ballistic-missiles-2024-9">increased their military ties</a> since the start of the Ukraine war. Tehran has provided Moscow with lethal aid, including missiles and drones similar to what it has given the Houthis in previous years. Both countries have been isolated on the world stage over their malign actions and involvement in Ukraine.The Houthis have used their arsenal of missiles and drones over the past year to tirelessly carry out attacks on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-difficult-mission-save-stricken-red-sea-tanker-2024-9">military and civilian vessels</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a campaign that the rebels claim is connected to the Israel-Hamas war.American forces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-weapons-expenditure-cost-middle-east-conflicts-2024-10">operating in the region</a> in defense of the merchant shipping lanes are frequently tasked with intercepting Houthi threats. Just last week, for instance, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-destroyers-unscathed-after-missile-exploding-drone-houthi-attack-2024-11">two US Navy destroyers</a> had to fend off a complex missile and drone attack.The US also routinely <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/f-35-variants-seen-combat-after-fighter-struck-houthis-2024-11">carries out airstrikes in Yemen</a>, targeting rebel missile systems, weapons storage facilities, and other sensitive sites in an effort to curb their ability to carry out the attacks.Lenderking said that the Houthis still "maintain the ability to launch pretty aggressively at passing ships," but the US is committed to keeping shipping lanes open in the Red Sea.

Russia's engagement with the Houthis as they lob missiles at ships is getting 'serious,' US official says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Houthis possess a sizable arsenal of weapons, including missiles and drones.</li><li>The Yemeni rebels couldn't have done that without foreign help, according to a new UN report.</li></ul>The Houthi rebels couldn't have amassed their dangerous arsenal of weapons without extensive help from Iran and its proxy forces in the Middle East, according to a new report for the United Nations.In the lengthy report, which was delivered to the UN Security Council last month, a panel of experts concluded that the Yemen-based Houthis have been receiving training, weapons, technical assistance, and financial support from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, and armed Iraqi groups.The Houthis are behind a yearlong campaign <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-getting-smarter-red-sea-attacks-ships-paying-the-price-2024-6">targeting key merchant shipping lanes</a> in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. They have launched more than 130 attacks — mainly using missiles and drones — against commercial and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-rearmed-back-red-sea-battle-houthis-2024-5">Western naval vessels</a>.The rebels have struck a number of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-fatal-anti-ship-ballistic-missile-attack-2024-3">commercial vessels</a> during their campaign, sinking two of them and hijacking one (nearly a year later, its crew remains detained in Yemen). Four sailors have been killed so far as a result of the attacks.<div type="image" title="The Palestine 2 missile launches from Yemen." height="1602" width="2880" msid="114992487" hostid="261" sizebytes="105334"></div>The panel of experts said in their report that the Houthis have exploited the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and, through their attacks, have tried to boost their status within Iran's so-called "axis of resistance," a band of proxy forces around the Middle East.The Houthis held a military parade in September 2023, during which the group <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-painted-hypersonic-on-new-missile-israel-attack-2024-9">boasted a formidable arsenal</a> of anti-ship missiles, ballistic and cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, aerial drones, naval drones, speedboats, surveillance systems, and mines.However, the experts said that the Houthis do not have the ability to produce and develop complex weaponry like that without foreign assistance. They also said the rebels likely received external assistance in identifying, locating, and targeting commercial vessels since many of them turned off their automatic identification systems before they entered the area.<div type="image" title="The aftermath of a Houthi attack on a commercial tanker." height="1467" width="2200" msid="114992488" hostid="261" sizebytes="159726"></div>"The scale, nature and extent of transfers of diverse military materiel and technology provided to the Houthis from external sources, including financial support and training of its combatants, is unprecedented," the experts wrote in their report.US naval forces have repeatedly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seals-drowned-mission-to-intercept-smuggled-iranian-weapons-investigation-2024-10">intercepted vessels</a> attempting to smuggle weapons from Iran to the Houthis illegally. One such mission in January resulted in the seizure of parts for ballistic and cruise missiles.The Pentagon has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-weapons-expenditure-cost-middle-east-conflicts-2024-10">kept a naval presence</a> in and around the Red Sea throughout the Houthi campaign, during which American warships have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-strike-group-scored-over-100-kills-battling-houthis-2024-10">routinely intercepted their missiles</a> and drones. Additionally, US forces have carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/b-2-stealth-bombers-join-red-sea-fight-bomb-houthis-2024-10">significant airstrikes</a> against the rebels in Yemen.The UN panel of experts said US and UK forces together have destroyed more than 800 Houthi missiles and drones and have taken out command posts, radars, and weapons storage facilities.

The Houthis couldn't have built their most dangerous weapons without help from Iran and others, UN experts find

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UN Security Council met on Monday to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation.</li><li>Pyongyang had days earlier launched a new ICBM, which recorded North Korea's longest launch trajectory.</li></ul>Pyongyang went loud and proud on Monday about its plans for nuclear weapons as the United Nations grilled its representative over a recent missile launch."We will accelerate and will not let up on the build-up of our nuclear force that can counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapons states," said Kim Song, the North Korean ambassador to the UN, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbH_GEkkaw4">at a Security Council meeting.</a>"There will ever never be any change in this line," he added, referring to North Korea as a "responsible nuclear weapon state."Kim's statement comes as Japan reported that North Korea fired at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-fires-missile-south-korea-military-says-2024-11-04/">seven short-range ballistic missiles</a> from its east coast that ultimately fell into Japan-administrated waters.Launched on the eve of the US election, the missiles were characterized by Pyongyang as a response to recent joint military drills between the US, South Korea, and Japan involving their long-range bombers.Those joint drills were a signal to North Korea after its Thursday launch of what it said was a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile dubbed the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-new-icbm-missile-test-how-effective-2024-11">Hwasong-19</a>, which also landed in the Sea of Japan.Its trajectory was recorded as Pyongyang's longest-ever ballistic missile test, reaching an altitude of about 4,780 miles, though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-responsible-for-new-north-korea-icbm-weapon-experts-say-2023-8">previous tests</a> have extended further in latitudinal distance.The US, Japan, and South Korea have condemned the launch.In his comments to the UN, Kim said the Hwasong-19 had "no slightest negative impact on the security of the neighboring countries."The UN Security Council had met on Monday to discuss the Hwasong-19 launch and to press North Korea on nuclear non-proliferation, but Kim instead blasted the meeting as "unlawful.""Today, the nuclear threat of the United States against the DPRK has already reached a critical point in terms of its scale and dangerous level," he said.<h2 id="0a21b4c2-3483-489e-b89e-c50366c67c1b">The US says North Korea 'emboldened' by Russia and China</h2>The US, in turn, accused Russia and China of protecting North Korea."Shielded from closer scrutiny of its sanctions-violating activities by Moscow and Beijing, Pyongyang, unsurprisingly, has been emboldened to continue advancing its unlawful ballistic missile and nuclear WMD programs," said Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador to the UN.North Korean ties with Russia have more recently come under the spotlight as Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">receives manpower</a> and arms from Pyongyang to fuel its war in Ukraine. South Korea said earlier this year that in return, North Korea has been acquiring food, raw materials, and tech expertise from Russia.Ukraine, the US, and the UK have estimated that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops may be embedded with Russian forces, and that at least <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-troops-ukraine-russia-kursk-8000-front-lines-2024-11">8,000 may soon be deployed to the front lines.</a>NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the manpower injection has given Russia a crucial way to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-cant-sustain-ukraine-attack-without-north-korea-nato-chief-2024-10">sustain its attack on Ukraine</a>, where Moscow has been estimated to be losing about 1,000 soldiers a day.Meanwhile, the Kremlin appears to be struggling to recruit new Russian men for the war, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-sign-up-bonuses-reaching-on-par-with-us-military-2024-7">soaring sign-up bonuses</a> in some cities indicating that the supply of applicants is running low.

North Korea told the UN point blank that it's speeding up nuclear weapons development

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hezbollah on Tuesday named Naim Qassem as its chief after longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed.</li><li>Qassem, a founding member of Hezbollah, was has been its deputy for more than 30 years.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-drone-hit-israel-army-undetected-idf-says-needs-improve-2024-10">Hezbollah</a> announced a new leader, Naim Qassem, after Israel killed both its longtime chief, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netanyahu-tricked-nasrallah-with-un-speech-official-says-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, and the person who had been expected to succeed him.Qassem was named Hezbollah's secretary-general on Tuesday.He was the deputy leader of the Lebanon-based militant group, and had been for decades.Qassem helped found Hezbollah in the 1980s and was first made its deputy leader in 1991 under Abbas al-Musawi.He did not take over as leader when al-Musawi was killed in 1992, and remained deputy all through Nasrallah's 32-year stint.Qassem has often been a public face of the group, handling high-stakes appearances in the international media, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hezbollah-naim-qassem-exclusive-interview-war-escalation-rcna148332">interviews with NBC News</a>. He also used to run a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBFLlBp3lZU4RCD_mx0eSPQ/featured1">YouTube channel</a>, which was shut down.Qassem wrote books including "Hizbullah: The Story from Within," which was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/amazon-removes-hezbollah-leaders-book-after-appeal-by-israeli-journalist-590753">on sale by Amazon until its removal</a> in 2019.Nasrallah was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">killed last month</a> when Israel conducted a targeted strike on Hezbollah's central headquarters in Beirut.Also killed was his cousin, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-beirut-targets-hezbollah-leadership-lebanon-hashem-safieddine-2024-10">Hashem Safieddine,</a> who was in line to succeed Nasrallah ahead of Qassem.It was part of the latest exchange of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which started firing at Israel on October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-goal-october-7-attack-israel-gaza-war-2023-11">terror attacks on Israeli territory.</a>The situation escalated last month after a series of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pager-explosions-lebanese-residents-abandon-devices-2024-9">pager explosions</a> in Lebanon, which were followed by an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-attack-lebanon-hezbollah-past-invasion-2024-10">Israeli aerial bombing campaign,</a> which included the targeting of Hezbollah's senior officials.In the absence of Nasrallah and Safieddine, Qassem emerged as the militant group's main voice, giving a series of televised addresses.In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hezbollah-deputy-chief-says-group-aims-inflict-pain-israel-2024-10-15/">one such appearance</a>, he said Hezbollah had adopted a "new calculation" to inflict pain on Israel if it didn't agree to a cease-fire.In 2018, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1161">US sanctioned Qassem</a>, holding him responsible for acting for or on behalf of Hezbollah, which the US Department of State has designated a foreign terrorist organization.Deeply critical of the US, Qassem described America as being "soaked from head to toe in the aggression and genocide alongside Israel" during a speech at a funeral last month.This was followed by a chant of "Death to America," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.memri.org/tv/hizbullah-deputy-leader-naim-qassem-death-to-america-israelis-not-return-north-expand-war">according to the Middle East Media Research Institute.</a>He takes over at a perilous time for the economy in Lebanon, where Hezbollah has significant influence on the elected government.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.undp.org/press-releases/un-development-programme-warns-socio-economic-crisis-lebanon-amidst-escalation-hostilities">United Nations Development Program estimated last week</a> that the Lebanese economy could contract by 9.2% if the fighting between Lebanon and Israel continues through to the end of the year.

Hezbollah named its new leader, a long-serving deputy, after Israel killed his predecessor

<keyword id="21333142" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indias-population" source="keywords">India's population</keyword> is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about <keyword id="22386427" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-7-billion" source="keywords">1.7 billion</keyword> and then decline by 12%, but the country will remain the world's most populous throughout the century, the <keyword id="19896118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="United-Nations" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="United Nations" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="United Nations">United Nations</keyword> has said. The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, said that the world's population is expected to continue growing over the coming 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, significantly up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which surpassed <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> as the world's most populous nation last year, will continue to hold that position through 2100. "The population of India, which is expected to remain the world's largest throughout the century, will likely decline by 12% after reaching its peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion," the <keyword id="19898339" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UN" source="keywords">UN</keyword> report published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), <keyword id="271075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="population-division" source="Orion">Population Division</keyword> said. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected at 1.45 billion and this will peak to 1.69 billion in 2054. After this, India's population is projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth. Responding to a question by PTI on population projections for India, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, <keyword id="6355835" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="un" source="Orion">UN</keyword> DESA Clare Menozzi said at a press conference that "India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated at 1.45 billion, and it's supposed to increase further to 1.69 billion. "It's supposed to peak around the 2060s in size and then it starts to slightly decline. So by the end of the century, India is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but will still the largest country in the world by a large margin." The report said that China's population, currently 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further decline to 633 million by 2100. "It is anticipated that China, the country currently with the world's second-largest population, will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million)," followed by <keyword id="6355311" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Japan" source="Orion">Japan</keyword> (21 million) and <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> (10 million). "Longer-range population projections are more uncertain" for China, it said. "However, due to its large size and sustained low level of fertility, China is also likely to record the largest population decline of any country through the end of the century (786 million people). By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than a half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50% probability)." Responding to a question on the significantly low population projection for China, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA John Wilmoth said that "it really relates to the level of fertility that's observed currently in China. The current number is right around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime." "Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels remain at such a low level, even if they come up slightly, any fertility level if it's below two, or especially below 1.8 or below 1.5, you're really getting into low levels of fertility and it produces a long run decline that's quite significant. And that's true for China. It's true for some other countries in this analysis," Wilmoth said. Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries and areas, including China, Italy, the Republic of Korea and Spain, are experiencing what is sometimes referred to as "ultra-low" fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime. The report added that the global fertility rate currently stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 births in 1990. "More than half of all countries and areas globally have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. This is the level required for a population to maintain a constant size in the long run (without migration), with each generation being followed by another of roughly equal size," it said. Pakistan is projected to overtake the US as the third-largest country in the world, with a population of 389 million in 2054. Currently, the US is the third largest country in the world with a population of 345 million and in 2054, it will be the fourth largest with 384 million people. Pakistan will remain the third largest country in the world, with a population of 511 million people in 2100. The report said that the estimated likelihood that the world's population will peak within the current century is very high, with a probability of 80%, a major change in UN projections from a decade ago, when this probability was around 30%. The size of the world's population in 2100 is now expected to be 6%smaller - or about 700 million people fewer - than anticipated a decade ago. In about 126 countries and areas, the population is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100. This group includes several of the world's most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America. In 2023, the global number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history. However, 95% of such deaths took place in the 126 countries with populations that are still growing, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report added that globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.4 years globally in 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to levels observed before the emergence of the coronavirus disease in nearly all countries and areas. At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019. The report said that by 2080, persons aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. "By the late 2070s, the number of persons at ages 65 years and higher globally is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children (under age 18). By the mid-2030s, it is projected that there will be 265 million persons aged 80 years or older, more than the number of infants (1 year of age or less)," it said.

India's population to peak in early 2060s to 1.7 billion before declining: UN

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress. Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people. One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war. Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war. The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment. "Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position. "Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added. <h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead. Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it. <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels. January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks. The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory. To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals. Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside." <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted. Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president. <keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran. Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut. <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee. In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight. Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility. <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group. Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south. Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5. It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare. Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5. <h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27. "If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said. Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago. Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages. The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region. Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East. Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a> <h2>Israel ignores US red lines</h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers. He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign. But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted. The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict. Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later. Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies. "Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week. <h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy. Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022. However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>. The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>. And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions. It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels. Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran has launched a missile attack on Israel, the Israeli military said.</li><li>The attack follows Israel's assassination of Hezbollah's leader and its invasion of Lebanon.</li></ul>Iran has launched an attack on Israel as tensions soar and violence further grips the volatile Middle East.The Israeli Defense Forces said on Telegram that "a short while ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards the State of Israel." On other social media pages, it said that "all Israeli civilians are in bomb shelters as rockets from Iran are fired at Israel.""The air defense system is fully operational, detecting and intercepting threats wherever necessary, even at this moment," the IDF said.Video footage showed Israeli air defenses intercepting Iranian missiles over Jerusalem. The Iranian attack comes just days after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-likely-used-bunker-buster-bombs-strike-kill-hezbollah-chief-2024-9">Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah</a>, the leader of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, in an airstrike in Beirut and hours after the Israeli military announced the start of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9">"limited" ground operation</a> inside Lebanon.Motivations for the attack may be complex, though, as Iran has also vowed to retaliate against Israel after Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas' political wing, was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">assassinated in Tehran</a> in July.Earlier on Tuesday, a White House official said the US had indications that Iran was preparing to "imminently" launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel."We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran," the official said.The US military has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-aircraft-ready-fight-more-violence-grips-middle-east-2024-9">a wide range of assets</a> in position around the Middle East and in the Eastern Mediterranean that can protect Israel, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">American forces did in April</a> when Iran launched a massive retaliatory missile and drone attack on the country.The US now has more assets positioned in the region than it did at that time. It is unclear how many Iranian projectiles American forces shot down on Tuesday.The US has repeatedly said that it is ready to defend Israel again and protect its own forces in the region from any attack by Iran or its regional proxies. Washington has repeatedly tried to contain rising tensions and conflicts in the Middle East to prevent it from escalating, but it has been unable to do so.Speaking at the United Nations on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to Iran that any direct attack by the country would be met with a response."If you strike us, we will strike you," he said, adding that there's no place in Iran where "the long arm of Israel cannot reach. And that's true of the entire Middle East."After the unprecedented April bombardment, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4">Israel then struck Iran directly</a>.

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