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<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>It sure seems like <keyword id="19959118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Twitter" source="keywords">Twitter</keyword> is more likely to show content from <keyword id="20052066" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Republican" source="keywords">Republican</keyword> or right-wing accounts.</li><li>That's the conclusion from two new reports in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Is X, the service many of us still call <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-twitter">Twitter</a>, more likely to show users political posts from Republicans, or right-leaning accounts? Yes. Probably. That's the conclusion from two different deep dives published in The Washington Post and The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/x-twitter-political-content-election-2024-28f2dadd?mod=hp_lead_pos3">Wall Street Journal</a> on Tuesday. Next question: Is Twitter doing this intentionally, at the behest of owner <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a>? That one is harder to answer. Both questions matter, obviously, because we're a week away from the <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword>. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-advertisers-cannes-speech-tweets-twitter-x-peter-kafka-2024-6">Twitter has become a financial disaster under Musk's ownership</a>, it still remains an important news hub for many millions of people. Meanwhile, Musk, who used to support Democrats, has thrown himself completely behind Donald <keyword id="19906203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Trump" source="keywords">Trump</keyword>'s campaign. He says "<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1840409051357696324">Democracy is over</a>" if Trump loses. Neither the Journal nor the Post want to draw a direct line between Musk's politics and Twitter's operations. But there are certainly some suggestions of dotted lines. I've asked Twitter for comment. The details: Both papers used software to analyze what users see on Twitter. The Post looked at a year-plus of tweets from top congressional accounts; the Journal created 14 brand-new Twitter accounts, controlled by bots and spread throughout the US. The Post's conclusion: Tweets from congressional accounts across the spectrum are getting less attention than they did a year ago. But Republican tweets are much more likely to go viral than Democrats. The Journal's findings don't exactly sync with the Post. It finds that its theoretical new users, who told Twitter they are not interested in politics, saw their feeds clogged with <keyword id="20531476" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="political-content" source="keywords">political content</keyword> anyway. And while it says Kamala Harris' campaign was the most-seen account, the platform skewed right overall: "Ten of the other top 14 most-seen leaned right, including Trump's, and overall, pro-Trump content appeared about twice as frequently as pro-Harris material." What accounts for the right-leaning shift? Neither paper wants to say definitively. But they both hover around two possibilities, which aren't mutually exclusive: Theory 1: Twitter is showing users what users want to see. That's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1807089883602956465">the argument Musk makes himself.</a> And there is decent logic behind it. For starters, even before Musk bought Twitter,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2025334119"> its own researchers found that the "political right enjoys higher amplification compared to the political left"</a> on the platform. And it's entirely plausible that some left-leaning users have left the platform during Musk's ownership, in part because he reinstated accounts from right-leaning users, including Trump himself. Conservatives may also be flocking to it for the same reason. And those users may be more likely to engage with right-leaning content, prompting the site's algorithm to show them more of it — the same way all social media sites generally work with popular content. Theory 2: Twitter is showing users what Musk wants them to see. This is a notion that some current and former Twitter users believe, though there's no direct proof that it's the case. But there is plenty of precedent for it, since Musk has repeatedly moved the platform according to his whims in the past. Most famously, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/musk-changed-twitter-algorithm-tweets-didnt-get-attention-book-2024-2">Musk ordered engineers to highlight his own tweets after the 2023 Super Bowl</a>, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.platformer.news/">Platformer's</a> Zoe Schiffer has reported. Musk has also used the site to host interviews with political figures he's interested in, including a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/desantis-campaign-launch-on-twitter-spaces-off-to-gltichy-start-2023-5">buggy chat with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzWjFzRMQNA">one with Trump this summer</a>. The Journal also reports that "more recently, Musk complained that a fraction of users saw his livestreams," and compelled his engineers to promote those chats on the site. Correction: October 29, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misattributed the detail about Musk complaining about his livestream views. The Journal reported it, not the Post.

Elon Musk is backing Trump. Is Musk's Twitter backing Trump, too?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ali Abbasi's film "The Apprentice" explores Trump's rise with lawyer Roy Cohn's guidance.</li><li>The film highlights Trump's tactics, which influenced his career and presidency.</li></ul>Director Ali Abbasi's "The Apprentice" presents a dramatized origin story for Donald Trump (played by Sebastian Stan), who, in the span of a few decades, goes from a nobody to a New York real-estate tycoon under the guidance of his lawyer, Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong).Though the movie doesn't delve into Trump's political aspirations — it ends right when author Tony Schwartz begins to discuss ghostwriting the 1987 book "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-art-of-the-deal-donald-trump-leadership-2017-1">The Art of the Deal</a>" with Trump — we see how the main lessons from Cohn would be Trump's guiding principles through his career and into his presidency, including attack, attack, attack; deny everything, admit nothing; and always claim victory.That "always claim victory" rule came into play during the 2020 presidential election. After his loss, Trump maintained that the election was stolen from him and that he'd actually won over Joe Biden.Soon after, Pro-Trump insurrectionists attacked the US Capitol in an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, that left four dead. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-denies-responsibility-jan-6-reaffirms-support-mccarthy-leaked-call-2022-4">denied responsibility for the January 6 insurrection</a> and publicly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/videotaped-remarks-the-attack-the-united-states-capitol-the-certification-the-electoral">condemned</a> it as a "heinous attack" that left him "outraged by the violence, lawlessness, and mayhem."<div type="image" title="trump speaking in nevada 2024" height="683" width="1024" msid="114227281" hostid="261" sizebytes="45562"></div>The 2024 presidential election, in which Trump seeks to reclaim the presidency against Vice President Kamala Harris, is now less than a month away.The question of whether Trump will accept the results of this election remains unclear. In May, Trump said he'd <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/02/politics/donald-trump-accept-2024-election-results/index.html">accept the results if "everything's honest."</a> A month later, at the first debate with President Joe Biden, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/trump-2024-election-results">unwilling to say if he would accept the results or not</a>. In August, he told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmfGRdlBq38">CBS News</a> he would accept the results if they were "fair and free."In a recent interview promoting "The Apprentice," Abbasi, who has been studying Trump since he signed on to make the film in 2018, weighed in on whether he believes Trump will accept the results in the event of a loss."I saw, like everyone else, what happened on January 6, which was horrific," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-apprentice-ali-abbasi-director-donald-trump-movie-challenges-2024-10">he told Business Insider</a>. "And I have a feeling that a lot of people got away with insane stuff. Look at that footage.""When you see that, you think, why would they change their opinion about this election? Why would they magically accept this when they didn't accept that?" Abbasi continued.<div type="image" title="Maria Bakalova as Ivana Trump and Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in &quot;The Apprentice.&quot;" height="675" width="1200" msid="114227280" hostid="261" sizebytes="66734"></div>"But somehow, I'm an optimist," he added. "I was optimistic when people told me not to do this movie, or when people said no one would buy this movie. So, I really hope that everyone learned their lesson on January 6th. I hope to think that even though people may be tempted to do that again, they know what the consequences are, and they don't do it."In August 2023, Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-january-6-criminal-indictment-charges-explained-2023-7">indicted on four charges in connection to January 6,</a> including conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction or an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hit-with-revised-january-6-indictment-jack-smith-2024-8">A year later</a>, the four counts were revised to remove some of the alleged conduct that may now be protected by presidential immunity. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/politics/trump-not-guilty-plea-january-6-charges-smith/index.html">pleaded not guilty</a>.After interviewing Abbasi, Business Insider reached out to Trump for comment. A spokesperson for the former president slammed the movie."This 'film' is pure malicious defamation, should never see the light of day, and doesn't even deserve a place in the straight-to-DVD section of a bargain bin at a soon-to-be-closed discount movie store," Trump communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement. "It belongs in a dumpster fire.""The Apprentice" is now playing in theaters.

'The Apprentice' director is 'optimistic' Trump will accept the presidential election results

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

<ul><li>Five states voted on some form of change to the minimum wage in Tuesday's US elections.</li><li>Missouri approved a raise, while Massachusetts and Arizona rejected changing how tipped workers are paid.</li><li>Results in Alaska and California were unclear early Wednesday.</li></ul>While economic issues were a major focus of this year's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11" target="_blank">US presidential election</a>, several states put pay directly on the ballot, and minimum-wage workers in at least one state are now set to get a raise after voting concluded Tuesday. Missouri, Massachusetts, California, and Alaska all had some form of referendum on their ballots on whether to hike the minimum wage paid by employers. In Massachusetts, voters were asked whether to gradually increase the share of tipped workers' pay that employers must provide, while voters in the three other states were presented with proposals for straightforward minimum-wage increases. In Arizona, voters weighed in on whether to decrease the tipped minimum wage — provided employers could show workers' wages would stay $2 above the state minimum when accounting for tips. Shortly after polls closed in Missouri, it was clear that the referendum there had passed. Voters in Massachusetts and Arizona rejected their proposals, and California and Alaska were still awaiting their results as of early Wednesday. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Missouri</h2>In Missouri, voters opted to raise the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. Per The New York Times, roughly 58% of Missouri voters had supported the measure as of early Wednesday, with some votes still uncounted. The measure, <a href="https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures#:~:text=Official%20Ballot%20Title%0AProposition,Proposed%20by%20Initiative%20Petition" target="_blank">Proposition A</a>, is set to first raise the minimum wage to $13.75 an hour from $12.30 on January 1 and then increase it again to $15 an hour on January 1, 2026. Starting in 2027, the wage is set to be pegged to inflation. The measure also mandates that employers give their workers an hour of paid leave for every 30 hours they work. Missouri separately voted in favor of former President Donald Trump, who said he'd "consider" a minimum-wage hike if it proved beneficial for small businesses. His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, had pledged support for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour from $7.25. A group of Missouri business owners in favor of the measure praised Proposition A's passage on Tuesday evening. "Proposition A will strengthen Missouri's workforce and businesses," David Burmeister, the owner of Midwest Pasta Co. in St. Louis, said in a press release. "Raising the minimum wage will increase people's ability to shop at our business and local businesses across Missouri. We've seen that paying better wages is better business. Employees are happier at work and do a better job." <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Massachusetts</h2>In <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/publications/information-for-voters-24/quest_5.htm" target="_blank">Massachusetts</a>, employers won't be required to gradually raise tipped workers' base pay to match the state's minimum wage. The measure failed, with the Times reporting at the time of publication that 64% of voters had rejected it out of the votes counted so far. The measure, which would have begun taking shape on January 1, wouldn't have actually raised the legal minimum wage for tipped workers but instead would have raised the share of that minimum wage that employers were required to provide. Currently, Massachusetts employers are required to pay tipped workers a base pay of $6.75 an hour and then make up the difference if those workers' total pay counting tips is less than $15 an hour. The failed measure would have ultimately required employers to directly pay tipped workers the state's full minimum wage by 2029. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Arizona</h2>In Arizona, voters rejected a measure that would have let employers reduce their base pay for tipped workers. <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/alispdfs/Council/2024BallotMeasures/adopted%20analysis%20Proposition%20138%20SCR1040%20-%202024.pdf" target="_blank">Proposition 138</a> proposed allowing employers to pay tipped workers up to 25% less than the state's minimum wage, with the corollary that employers would need to establish their workers were still making the minimum wage plus an additional $2 an hour when accounting for tips. The Times reported that out of the votes counted so far, nearly 76% of voters had rejected the measure. That means that employers in Arizona can continue to pay their tipped workers $3 less than the current hourly minimum wage as long as workers are still making at least the minimum wage when accounting for tips. Correction: November 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story included a sentence that incorrectly described the result of the ballot measure in Massachusetts. The system in which tipped workers are required to be paid at least $15 an hour through a combination of tips and a $6.75 hourly wage is the current system in Massachusetts, not a proposal on the ballot measure that voters rejected. The story was also updated to clarify the ballot results. The percentages attributed to The New York Times reflected the latest tally as votes were being counted, not New York Times projections for the final result. The specific figure of 76% in Arizona referred to the share of voters at the time who had rejected the ballot measure there, not the margin by which voters rejected the measure.

Workers in Missouri can look forward to raises after minimum-wage boosts passed

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are bracing for the US presidential election amid a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump.</li><li>The US dollar is in firm focus as traders tread cautiously ahead of the polls.</li></ul>Markets are holding their breath at the start of a big week.The US presidential election on Tuesday is the biggest event this week, and traders are firmly focused on a jittery dollar on Monday amid a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.On Monday, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — was 0.5% lower at 3:27 a.m. ET.Meanwhile, the US dollar was 0.6% lower against the Japanese yen and the euro was 0.5% higher than the dollar.The dollar lost ground after weekend polls showed the odds of a Republican sweep falling, and the likelihood of a Democratic win with a split Congress increasing, Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/aud-usd-looks-to-us-election-for-relief-241104">trading platform IG,</a> wrote on Monday.Polls that show Trump's odds falling would put pressure on the dollar. This is because Trump, the Republican candidate, has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">wide-sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates — which would support the greenback."This shift has weighed on the US dollar, as traders unwind some of the 'USD <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">Trump Trade</a>' premium," wrote Sycamore, referring to the weekend poll.Cash trade in US Treasuries trade was closed in Asian trading hours as markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.<h2 id="43e035ed-ee9e-417b-ab2c-dcd98ece54aa">Fed meeting and China stimulus</h2>The US elections aren't all that's influencing the markets this week.The US Federal Reserve is also set to hold its interest rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.Regardless of who wins the election, the Fed is expected to cut key rates by 25 basis points, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25-basis-points-next-two-meetings-2024-10-29/">Reuters poll</a> of 111 economists.Factors driving the potential cut include Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy added just <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">12,000 jobs in October</a> — far lower than the forecast of 106,000 jobs. Meanwhile, inflation has cooled over the last few months."The Fed is more relaxed about inflation and is putting more focus on the jobs market as it attempts to secure a soft landing for the economy," analysts at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/fed-to-cut-25bp-irrespective-of-election-outcome/">ING wrote in a note on Friday.</a>Since Joe Biden will still be president until January 20, macro newsflow would still drive the Fed's interest rate decisions until December, the ING analysts added.On the other side of the world, China is expected to greenlight a fresh round of stimulus as its Standing Committee of National People's Congress — its top legislative body — meets from Monday through Friday.The world's second-largest economy has been mired in a prolonged economic downturn amid an epic property crisis. In late September, it announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">aggressive stimulus</a> to boost its economy, but analysts say much more is needed to drive flagging consumption.This week, China's legislative body would be considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported on Tuesday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.The amount could be increased if Trump wins the presidential race, underscoring the outsized influence of the US election on the rest of the world."US election outcomes and the resulting tariff risks are consequential to China equity via the intertwined economic, currency, policy, earnings, and valuation channels," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Monday.

The US dollar is jittery ahead of a big week, and there's more to it than the presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's hybrid warfare tactics against the US and Europe are reaching new levels.</li><li>The disinformation efforts seek to influence elections and stir chaos in domestic politics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/front-line-nato-allies-baltics-face-russian-hybrid-threats-2024-6">Russian disinformation and interference</a> — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and again showed up in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia was conducting "an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry, and committing violence," echoing long-standing concerns.Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling sites in five battleground states were the targets of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-poll-bomb-threats-russia-election-harris-trump-2024-11">hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains</a>, the FBI said, and that was only part of Russian actions.Georgia's Secretary of State accused Moscow of being "up to mischief," saying that "they don't want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory."The Russian embassy in Washington denied the accusations as "malicious slander" and said "Russia has not interfered and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," including the US, but such activities are well documented.<h2 id="193769f6-1321-4ffb-b08c-2325bce96246">Rising levels of interference</h2><div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-US President Donald Trump sit in chairs opposite each other, shaking hands." height="3327" width="4889" msid="115115440" hostid="261" sizebytes="445288"></div>Experts and officials began to seriously take note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US politics in 2016, and it's continually gotten worse."Undoubtedly we've seen an uptick in the scope and scale and, really, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment," Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and the director of engagements at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, told Business Insider.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html">Hybrid warfare</a> covers a range of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation, intended to deniably influence or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.2016 saw the rising influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US foes to stoke violence and unrest, particularly as then-President Donald Trump contested the results and inspired the January 6th insurrection on the US Capitol.A month prior to the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Declassified-Foreign-Threats-to-US-Elections-After-Voting-Ends-in-2024.pdf">warning that Russia, China, and Iran were better equipped to influence the election</a> and undermine confidence in the results due to lessons from 2020; the council cited a range of tactics that could be used, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and encouragement of electoral chaos and violence.<div type="image" title="capitol riot january 6" height="1666" width="2500" msid="115115445" hostid="261" sizebytes="414688"></div>Then, on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries "at a greater level than ever before."The efforts were designed to prompt distrust, fear, and misunderstanding in American voters and raise doubts over the integrity of US democracy. The 2024 presidential election was likely of particular interest to Russia, though, because of what was on the line: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-win-clocking-ticking-on-ukraine-aid-2024-11">US support for Ukraine</a>, of which Trump has been less supportive.<h2 id="a4700f32-0a7c-4d04-93ea-ed4b4b837c59">More than an American problem</h2>This hybrid warfare is a broader problem for other Western countries, too. In recent months, Russia was accused of attempting to undermine Moldova's election in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transportation to get Russians to vote at Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyberattacks and fake bomb threats to out-of-country voting operations.Russia was also recently accused of attempting to interfere in the Republic of Georgia's parliamentary election, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany, and others. The big difference between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-west-must-respond-to-russias-rapidly-escalating-hybrid-warfare/">how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies</a> comes down to the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US' two party system, Russia's focuses on creating discontent within a certain party or between the parties.<div type="image" title="An older woman puts a paper ballot in a box at a voting location in a basketball gym." height="5119" width="7678" msid="115115442" hostid="261" sizebytes="993200"></div>In European democracies, Russia's focus often appears to be creating cracks within how the various parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-European Union or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted, too, as was the case in Moldova's election.Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. "They don't really care about the ideology of the organizations," Livermore said, so long as it "advances the Kremlin's interests."These interference efforts also undermine democracy more generally, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media emphasized deep divisions, dysfunction, and fears of violence in the US.The state-run Beijing Daily, for example, wrote: "the US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called 'beacon of democracy,' may now become the starting gun of 'social unrest.'"Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to indict democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. Notably, experts have assessed Russia, China, and Iran are growing increasingly closer in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.<h2 id="68359602-dfe7-4892-949e-9a8712a6b38f">Weakening the intended effect</h2><div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris stands at a podium delivering her concession speech." height="3182" width="4773" msid="115115448" hostid="261" sizebytes="1578158"></div>After it Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded quickly. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden."For over 200 years, America has carried on the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world," he said, "where the people, the people vote and choose their own leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails."Livermore said that because this election's results, unlike in 2020, aren't being contested, that could mean failure for any hybrid warfare tactics from US adversaries in the months ahead of Inauguration Day. He said Russia, China, and Iran were likely "hoping that they were going to have a couple of months of chaos in the US," but that is now much less likely.US stability in the transition of power can be attributed to lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, on how to maintain trust in the election process and suppress post-election violence.

A worsening kind of Russian warfare was on display in the US presidential election, but it's a much bigger problem

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were slightly higher Tuesday as Wall Street looked ahead to the result of the US election.</li><li>Some Trump trades edged up Tuesday morning after being hit on Monday by rising odds of a Kamala Harris win. </li></ul>US stocks rose on Tuesday as investors gear up for the result of the presidential election.Voters are heading to the polls to conclude the dramatic race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The candidates are virtually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">tied in the polls nationally and in many swing states</a>, setting the stage for a period of uncertainty as vote counts come down to the wire. Though new momentum from Harris over the weekend weighed on the Trump trade on Monday, Treasury yields, bitcoin, and the Trump Media stock have all moved up on the day of the vote as markets position for a potential victory for the former president. Whoever does end up in the White House will have an impact on the trajectory of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">the market</a>, as each candidate has promised sharply contrasting views on everything from trade to tax policy. Immediately following the election, Wall Street will turn to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a 96% chance the Fed cuts its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of the meeting on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,736.46, up 0.43% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,868.85, up 0.18% (+74.25 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,304.48, up 0.67%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">Another half-point rate cut could come this year amid job market weakness</a>, according to a Citi economist.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-political-spending-elections-2026-midterms-coinbase-fairshake-super-pac-2024-11?_gl=1*177ibwg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgxMjgwNy43OTUuMS4xNzMwODE1NTI0LjIuMC4w">The crypto industry is already eyeing the 2026 midterms with $78 million geared for supportive candidates.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-betting-trump-win-losing-money-harris-odds-shift-2024-11">The Polymarket whale betting on Trump is down $3 million after Harris' odds jumped over the weekend.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ai-gpu-chips-demand-artificial-intelligence-debt-investing-cloud-2024-11">Chip fever has created an $11 billion debt market backed by Nvidia's AI-enabling GPUs.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil climbed 0.38% to $71.76 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.35% to $75.34 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased by 0.30% to $2,754.1 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield gained 1 basis point to 4.327%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 1.97% to $68,814.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes rise as Wall Street awaits the result of the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks jumped on Tuesday, led by tech as Palantir stock helped the Nasdaq climb 1.4%. </li><li>Traders are eyeing the result of the US presidential election. </li></ul>US indexes surged Tuesday as a jump in tech stocks pulled indexes higher as traders headed toward the end of the US presidential election. A record earnings report from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pltr-stock">Palantir</a> helped push tech higher, with the stock soaring 23.5% to close at $51.15. The data software company delivered a record profit while showcasing high demand for its artificial intelligence products. Other tech leaders also ended higher, with Nvidia jumping almost 3% such as Nvidia and Tesla closing 3.5% higher.Nvidia's rally on Tuesday helped the chip titan surpass Apple as the world's most valuable company by market cap, at $3.42 trillion versus Apple's valuation of $3.38 trillion. The S&amp;P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by almost 430 points.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,782.76, up 1.23%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,221.88, up 1.02% (+427.28 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,439.17, up 1.43%</li></ul>As voters flocked to the polls, Wall Street is on edge for the possibility of an uncertain election outcome following the conclusion of the vote.Some popular Trump trades rose throughout the day, with bitcoin and shares of Trump Media rising in anticipation of a potential Republican win. Treasurys yields edged slightly lower, with the 10-year bond dipping two basis points to 4.289%.On Wednesday, Wall Street's focus will quickly shift from the presidential race to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html"> Futures markets</a> indicate a 98.2% chance the central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/super-micro-computer-stock-delisting-risk-this-month-november-smci-2024-11?_gl=1*567hsv*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MDQzLjU5LjAuMA..">Super Micro Computer faces delisting from the Nasdaq as it comes up against a compliance deadline. </a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-stock-market-outlook-best-case-scenario-congress-gridlock-2024-11?_gl=1*11y3l5j*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTIxLjYwLjAuMA..">A divided Congress would be the best-case outcome for stocks, JPMorgan says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/election-bear-market-us-economy-stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-11?_gl=1*1rj5c60*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTgxLjYwLjAuMA..">There's an 18% chance that stocks are heading toward a post-election bear market,</a> Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-to-buy-recession-investing-strategy-defensive-economy-outlook-money-2024-11?_gl=1*1936m0t*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MTM0LjYwLjAuMA..">A warning signal in the economy is telling investors to load up on defensive stocks, research firm says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-gas-ukraine-war-budget-moscow-crude-prices-2024-11?_gl=1*1yvzx3u*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MzA1LjYwLjAuMA..">Volatile crude prices send Russian oil revenue down 28% in October.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.99% to $72.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.81% to $75.69 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased by 0.18% to $2,751.2 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 4.289%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.82% to $69,401.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech leads indexes higher as markets head toward the result of the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>UBS has conducted a market-scenario analysis for four possible election outcomes.</li><li>The firm assigned the highest odds to a Kamala Harris presidency and split Congress.</li></ul>Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race in July, outlooks on what could happen in November have dramatically readjusted.The sudden candidacy of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-economy-inflation-polling-donald-trump-joe-biden-2024-8">Kamala Harris</a> has brought back confidence in a possible Democratic victory, which was starting to fade under Biden. With less than 100 days to go to the election, she is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-shift-2024-8">now polling higher against her rival</a>, Donald Trump.Harris' rise has prompted UBS to update its outlook on what could happen to stocks, based on the election's outcome. The bank offered a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/biden-trump-presidential-election-stock-market-impact-tariffs-regulation-taxes-2024-3">similar analysis in March</a> when Biden was still running.<h3 id="35673257-858f-4c90-b0d2-0f3149190d03">(1) Harris wins with split Congress</h3>UBS projects a 40% chance that Harris will take over the Oval Office, while Congress is split.The scenario would have a minimal impact on equities, boosting companies focused on renewables and energy efficiency. The bank expects a relief rally to lift Inflation Reduction Act benefactors, while a regulatory overhang could cause fossil fuel companies to trade lower.UBS said strict regulation could also limit the financial sector, as Harris will keep in place an "anti-big financial services ideology." Since the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March last year, Biden has called for <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/yellen-siliconvalleybank-regulation-banking-0ecff9f3aac804de56d32a6317ab07bc">tighter oversight</a>.At the same time, Congress would limit Harris from pushing major legislation, such as industrials and healthcare.<h3 id="b9e5519b-d60a-4181-b0c6-b4b52267b08b">(2) Trump wins in red sweep</h3>If Harris doesn't win, UBS sees 35% odds that Republicans win both Congress and the White House. When Biden was still running, this was the most probable outcome, the bank previously forecast.In this case, Trump would face fewer limits in implementing touted policies, such as his pledge to raise tariffs and extend the 2017 corporate tax cuts.UBS expects regulation to loosen in this scenario, while merger and acquisition activity would likely rise. These factors would help support fossil fuel investment and would be the best-case scenario for financials.That makes a red sweep outcome slightly positive for equities, although the bank expects Trump's other proposals to offset initial market excitement.For instance, many economists have voiced concern about higher tariffs, considering that elevated duties can spur inflation. Trump has repeatedly dismissed these warnings, instead calling for a universal tariff on all US trade and a 60% tax rate on Chinese exports.In this case, UBS expects interest rates and the dollar to rise. Higher tariffs could also impact the technology sector, especially hardware and semiconductor firms.The bank noted possible negative effects on healthcare from Trump's proposals, such as plans for an international drug pricing index.<h3 id="d6497907-c6b5-48d5-a39d-c102811d9d8a">(3) Harris wins in blue sweep</h3>UBS sees a 15% possibility that Democrats secure both branches of government. If that happens, it'll be the worst outcome for stocks, the note said.This scenario would be slightly negative for the market, as investors can expect the 2017 tax cuts to expire, while regulation would tighten. Financials and fossil fuel companies would be hit hardest, driving up costs in both industries.Some efforts could be made to expand the IRA's drug price negotiating power, though its questionable how willing Democrats from Biopharma states will be in implementing this.Meanwhile, the estate tax could rise, alongside limitations to state and local tax deductions.Altogether, lower growth would prompt interest rates are to fall, as disinflation continues.<h3 id="7ef6b71f-3019-4541-bb30-1ae0b6aca36a">(4) Trump wins with divided Congress</h3>The least likely outcome that UBS expects is for Trump to return to the White House, without the support of a Republican Congress. There is a 10% chance this happens.Under this scenario, the stock market impact will be mixed. As with a red sweep, tariffs will still bring about inflationary pressures and a stronger dollar, modestly pushing up interest rates.The bank said investment spending could fall back for industrials as uncertainty grows around green energy initiatives.Meanwhile, UBS anticipates regulatory overhangs to ease somewhat over the fossil fuel and financial sectors, with the latter benefiting from new regulatory head appointments at the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and Securities and Exchange Commission.

How 4 possible presidential election results could impact stocks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

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