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Ah, <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword>! The shiny metal that's been making humans lose their minds since time immemorial. And yet, from King Midas to our neighbourhood aunty and even our moms (and secretly dads), everyone seems to have a super soft spot for the bullion. But here's the kicker: right now, gold prices are breaking all records on their upward trajectory! As of today, prices of 24k carat gold have passed the Rs 80,000 mark per 10 grams. And if experts are to be believed, this train isn't stopping anytime soon! So, as shiny as gold might look, adding even a bit of its glitter as we start decking up for the festive season might not be so easy on your pockets. But let's admit it—we love our gold and can't live without it. No wonder India is the second-largest consumer of the yellow metal in the world, only behind <keyword id="1334" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="Orion">China</keyword>. Such is our fondness for the metal that the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="keywords">World Gold Council</keyword> had to up our 2024 annual demand forecast to 850 tonnes, up from the previously estimated 750 tonnes. However, our love for gold isn't just about looking fabulously embellished and blinding people with its bling. Indians also see gold as a long-term, trusty investment, supporting our other hard-earned assets, especially when high <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> rates pull our returns down. After all, while inflationary pressures generally weaken the purchasing power of our regular paper money, gold is built differently. When the world is buckling to inflation, gold gains value during these times. This is also why it is considered a solid hedge against inflation. With Diwali and Dhanteras knocking at our doors, the inflation demon continued to bother India like a guest who refused to leave. Just last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.49%, much higher than the anticipated levels. Moreover, the diverging policy stances among central bankers worldwide, growing geopolitical tensions, tough job markets, and extreme weather events are only adding to the uncertainty. In such economically uncertain times, what should your gold strategy be this festive season? To buy or not to buy, that is the question. Well, let’s get to it. <h2><keyword id="20050894" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-etfs" source="keywords">Gold ETFs</keyword> to the rescue</h2>See, buying physical gold jewellery is certainly a flex, but also a financial fuss. First, you pay a heavy amount to buy gold. Not to mention all those extra, hefty jewellery-making charges. And then you pay even more money to keep it safe in a bank locker, lest it get stolen. But what if we tell you that you can own pure <keyword id="3311599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="24K-gold" source="Orion">24k gold</keyword>, minus all these frills? Welcome, Gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Simply put, gold ETFs are like the cool cousins of your traditional gold investments. Instead of stashing gold bars under your mattress like those maniac millionaires we see in Bollywood films, you can now invest and trade in gold through the stock market. It's basically buying units of an ETF on the stock exchange that directly mirror the ongoing domestic prices of gold. Generally, gold ETFs are equivalent to 99.5% pure physical gold bars, and each ETF unit denotes actual, one gram of gold. And let's face it, who would not want that golden glow in their lives? Gold ETFs have witnessed an over seven-fold surge in their AUM (assets under management) in just the last five years. From Rs 5,613.22 crore in September 2019 to Rs 39,823.50 crore in September 2024, gold ETFs seem to be in-thing. Inflows in gold ETFs have shot up by a whopping 2,695% over the last 5 years. In September 2019, gold ETFs had garnered a mere Rs 44.11 crore. Compare that to the inflows worth Rs 1,232.99 crore gold ETFs received last month. Talk about growing, or glowing popularity! In fact, in just 2024, inflows in gold ETFs have surged by nearly 88% since the beginning of this calendar year. From Rs 657.46 crore in January 2024 to Rs 1,232.99 crore in September 2024, good old gold is never out of season. <h2>So, how do these ETFs work? Should I invest in them now?</h2>All you need is a Demat account. Log into your account, choose the gold ETF scheme you want to invest in, and voila! You’re now a bullion-aire! All your gold ETF units will be stored in this account. Then, you can buy and sell gold ETFs just like you buy shares—in real-time. So, if gold prices inch upwards, which is where gold is currently going, the value of your ETF units will also rise in lockstep. Ashwini Kumar, Senior Vice President and Head of Market Data at ICRA Analytics, says that of late, gold ETFs have been increasingly gaining popularity among investors due to the liquidity, safety and transparency they offer. "With the escalating global geopolitical tensions boosting the ‘safe-haven’ appeal of the bullion, investors are preferring to park their funds in gold ETFs as compared to investing in physical gold, as there is no hassle of storing it. The heightened activity in gold ETFs is also driven by the prospects of an imminent further interest rate cut by the <keyword id="20078761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="u-s-federal-reserve" source="keywords">U.S. Federal Reserve</keyword> in the coming months,” he added. “Investors with a short- to medium-term investment horizon may consider investment through gold ETFs. A buy-on-dips strategy here may help investors capitalise on a temporary correction in prices. Also, given the current market dynamics where equities are showing mixed trends, a modest, 5-10% allocation to gold may serve as a hedge against inflation and market volatility, which may help you balance risks in an optimum manner,” Kumar noted. <h2> Wait, there is no dearth of options</h2>But if ETFs make you go WTF, there’s always digital gold. You can invest in the yellow metal without actually physically holding it for as low as Rs 1. The best part? You can buy or sell this gold 24 X7 seamlessly via multiple apps without having to pay storage costs. On your behalf, your gold is stored in insured vaults by the seller. But remember, digital gold continues to remain unregulated territory in the country, where you venture at your own risk. In 2021, market watchdog SEBI had even asked its members to desist from selling digital gold. Then there are gold mutual funds and the Sarkari SGBs, or sovereign gold bonds. While gold mutual funds invest primarily in gold ETFs, SGBs are issued by the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> and are also a reliable substitute for holding physical gold. However, with the RBI currently putting brakes on issuing SGBs, investing in them is out of the question. Plus, you should only get your hands on SGBs if you're in for the long haul. Apart from a 2.5% p.a. interest, you don't have any yearly earnings from them. Moreover, no premature redemption is allowed before 5 years, and you'll have to wait a good 8 years to maximise your returns. <h2> Okay, tell me about returns</h2>In contrast, the seventeen gold ETF schemes currently present in the market offer an average one-year return of 29.12%. Stay with it a little longer, and you can end up with returns worth 16.93% and 13.59% over a 3 and 5-year period, respectively. If you look at it, these returns are comparable with the returns delivered by actual, physical gold. Data from Value Research indicates that gold, as a commodity, has delivered returns worth 27.24%, 16.53%, and 14.18% over a 1, 3, and 5-year period, respectively. So, worth investing, right? <h2>What are the risks?</h2>See, stock markets are as unpredictable as monsoons in Mumbai. One significant market correction can wash away your returns, and one sunny day or an upswing can leave you wallowing in wealth. Since your gold investments are directly linked to these markets, you should steel yourself up for some volatility. Plus, international gold prices are in dollars. So, if our rupee decides to take a nosedive, your returns might look a bit tarnished. Also, know that your ETF might not always perfectly mirror gold prices, which is also known as a tracking error. It's like expecting your Zomato-ordered food to look exactly like the picture on the menu—it's close, but not quite. Then there’s the taxation bit. The budget this year brought down the <keyword id="20552259" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ltcg" source="keywords">LTCG</keyword> (long-term capital gains tax) on gold ETFs from the previous 20% to 12.5% (sans indexation). LTCG is what you pay if you sell your ETF units after 12 months. If you sell your gold ETF units within a year and make handsome returns, the tax you’ll have to pay will be equivalent to your income tax slab rate. <h2>Is gold just for old?</h2>A survey by fintech firm Moneyview thinks otherwise. Per their findings, over 85% of the 3,000 respondents it talked to considered gold to be a valuable asset for wealth preservation, with its intrinsic value and historical performance continuing to drive consumer confidence. Particularly, young investors in the age group of 25–40 years are also investing in gold via both physical and digital ways to build wealth for retirement and other long-term goals. So, young or old, everyone’s going for gold. So, this festive season, with gold prices going north, investing in gold can add that much-needed glitz to your financial attire. But remember, don't go overboard since gold isn't exactly a high-return-yielding asset. But whether you're a seasoned investor looking to diversify or a newbie trying to make their way in the markets, investing in gold offers you a glittering safety cushion. Just remember, while gold can make your portfolio shine, it's your smart investment decisions that truly make you golden. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified, and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

Can investing in gold this festive season add the much-touted Midas touch to your investments?

<div type="image" title="Save yourself the trouble of buying physical gold this Diwali, and instead, go digital with Gold ETFs!" height="900" width="1200" msid="114507055" hostid="261" sizebytes="439216" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Save yourself the trouble of buying physical gold this Diwali, and instead, go digital with Gold ETFs!&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Ah, <keyword id="18712" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gold" source="Orion">gold</keyword>! The shiny metal that's been making humans lose their minds since time immemorial. And yet, from <keyword id="23657519" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="king-midas" source="keywords">King Midas</keyword> to our neighbourhood aunty and even our moms (and secretly dads), everyone seems to have a super soft spot for the <keyword id="6384667" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bullion" source="Orion">bullion</keyword>. But here's the kicker: right now, gold prices are breaking all records on their upward trajectory! As of today, prices of 24k carat gold have passed the Rs 80,000 mark per 10 grams. And if experts are to be believed, this train isn't stopping anytime soon! So, as shiny as gold might look, adding even a bit of its glitter as we start decking up for the festive season might not be so easy on your pockets. But let's admit it—we love our gold and can't live without it. No wonder India is the second-largest consumer of the yellow metal in the world, only behind China. Such is our fondness for the metal that the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-gold-council" source="keywords">World Gold Council</keyword> had to up our 2024 annual demand forecast to 850 tonnes, up from the previously estimated 750 tonnes. However, our love for gold isn't just about looking fabulously embellished and blinding people with its bling. Indians also see gold as a long-term, trusty investment, supporting our other hard-earned assets, especially when high <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> rates pull our returns down. After all, while inflationary pressures generally weaken the purchasing power of our regular paper money, gold is built differently. When the world is buckling to inflation, gold gains value during these times. This is also why it is considered a solid hedge against inflation. With <keyword id="188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Diwali" source="Orion">Diwali</keyword> and <keyword id="4067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Dhanteras" source="Orion">Dhanteras</keyword> knocking at our doors, the inflation demon continued to bother India like a guest who refused to leave. Just last month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 5.49%, much higher than the anticipated levels. Moreover, the diverging policy stances among central bankers worldwide, growing geopolitical tensions, tough job markets, and extreme weather events are only adding to the uncertainty. In such economically uncertain times, what should your gold strategy be this festive season? To buy or not to buy, that is the question. Well, let’s get to it. <h2><keyword id="20050894" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-etfs" source="keywords">Gold ETFs</keyword> to the rescue</h2>See, buying physical gold jewellery is certainly a flex, but also a financial fuss. First, you pay a heavy amount to buy gold. Not to mention all those extra, hefty jewellery-making charges. And then you pay even more money to keep it safe in a bank locker, lest it get stolen. But what if we tell you that you can own pure 24k gold, minus all these frills? Welcome, Gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). Simply put, gold ETFs are like the cool cousins of your traditional gold investments. Instead of stashing gold bars under your mattress like those maniac millionaires we see in Bollywood films, you can now invest and trade in gold through the stock market. It's basically buying units of an <keyword id="19930506" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="etf" source="keywords">ETF</keyword> on the stock exchange that directly mirror the ongoing domestic prices of gold. Generally, gold ETFs are equivalent to 99.5% pure physical gold bars, and each ETF unit denotes actual, one gram of gold. And let's face it, who would not want that golden glow in their lives? Gold ETFs have witnessed an over seven-fold surge in their AUM (assets under management) in just the last five years. From Rs 5,613.22 crore in September 2019 to Rs 39,823.50 crore in September 2024, gold ETFs seem to be in-thing. Inflows in gold ETFs have shot up by a whopping 2,695% over the last 5 years. In September 2019, gold ETFs had garnered a mere Rs 44.11 crore. Compare that to the inflows worth Rs 1,232.99 crore gold ETFs received last month. Talk about growing, or glowing popularity! In fact, in just 2024, inflows in gold ETFs have surged by nearly 88% since the beginning of this calendar year. From Rs 657.46 crore in January 2024 to Rs 1,232.99 crore in September 2024, good old gold is never out of season. <h2>So, how do these ETFs work? Should I invest in them now?</h2>All you need is a Demat account. Log into your account, choose the gold ETF scheme you want to invest in, and voila! You’re now a bullion-aire! All your gold ETF units will be stored in this account. Then, you can buy and sell gold ETFs just like you buy shares—in real-time. So, if gold prices inch upwards, which is where gold is currently going, the value of your ETF units will also rise in lockstep. Ashwini Kumar, Senior Vice President and Head of Market Data at ICRA Analytics, says that of late, gold ETFs have been increasingly gaining popularity among investors due to the liquidity, safety and transparency they offer. "With the escalating global geopolitical tensions boosting the ‘safe-haven’ appeal of the bullion, investors are preferring to park their funds in gold ETFs as compared to investing in physical gold, as there is no hassle of storing it. The heightened activity in gold ETFs is also driven by the prospects of an imminent further interest rate cut by the <keyword id="20078761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="u-s-federal-reserve" source="keywords">U.S. Federal Reserve</keyword> in the coming months,” he added. “Investors with a short- to medium-term investment horizon may consider investment through gold ETFs. A buy-on-dips strategy here may help investors capitalise on a temporary correction in prices. Also, given the current market dynamics where equities are showing mixed trends, a modest, 5-10% allocation to gold may serve as a hedge against inflation and market volatility, which may help you balance risks in an optimum manner,” Kumar noted. <h2>Wait, there is no dearth of options</h2>But if ETFs make you go WTF, there’s always digital gold. You can invest in the yellow metal without actually physically holding it for as low as Rs 1. The best part? You can buy or sell this gold 24 X7 seamlessly via multiple apps without having to pay storage costs. On your behalf, your gold is stored in insured vaults by the seller. But remember, digital gold continues to remain unregulated territory in the country, where you venture at your own risk. In 2021, market watchdog SEBI had even asked its members to desist from selling digital gold. Then there are gold mutual funds and the Sarkari SGBs, or sovereign gold bonds. While gold mutual funds invest primarily in gold ETFs, SGBs are issued by the RBI and are also a reliable substitute for holding physical gold. However, with the RBI currently putting brakes on issuing SGBs, investing in them is out of the question. Plus, you should only get your hands on SGBs if you're in for the long haul. Apart from a 2.5% p.a. interest, you don't have any yearly earnings from them. Moreover, no premature redemption is allowed before 5 years, and you'll have to wait a good 8 years to maximise your returns. <h2>Okay, tell me about returns</h2>In contrast, the seventeen gold ETF schemes currently present in the market offer an average one-year return of 29.12%. Stay with it a little longer, and you can end up with returns worth 16.93% and 13.59% over a 3- and 5-year period, respectively. If you look at it, these returns are comparable with the returns delivered by actual, physical gold. Data from Value Research indicates that gold, as a commodity, has delivered returns worth 27.24%, 16.53%, and 14.18% over a 1, 3, and 5-year period, respectively. So, worth investing, right? <h2>What are the risks?</h2>See, markets are as unpredictable as monsoons in Mumbai. One significant market correction can wash away your returns, and one sunny day or an upswing can leave you wallowing in wealth. Since your gold investments are directly linked to these markets, you should steel yourself up for some volatility. Plus, international gold prices are in dollars. So, if our rupee decides to take a nosedive, your returns might look a bit tarnished. Also, know that your ETF might not always perfectly mirror gold prices, which is also known as a tracking error. It's like expecting your Zomato-ordered food to look exactly like the picture on the menu—it's close, but not quite. Then there’s the taxation bit. The budget this year brought down the LTCG (long-term capital gains tax) on gold ETFs from the previous 20% to 12.5% (sans indexation). LTCG is what you pay if you sell your ETF units after 12 months. If you sell your gold ETF units within a year and make handsome returns, the tax you’ll have to pay will be equivalent to your income tax slab rate. <h2>Is gold just for old?</h2>A survey by fintech firm Moneyview thinks otherwise. Per their findings, over 85% of the 3,000 respondents it talked to considered gold to be a valuable asset for wealth preservation, with its intrinsic value and historical performance continuing to drive consumer confidence. Particularly, young investors in the age group of 25–40 years are also investing in gold via both physical and digital ways to build wealth for retirement and other long-term goals. So, young or old, everyone’s going for gold. So, this festive season, with gold prices going north, investing in gold can add that much-needed glitz to your financial attire. But remember, don't go overboard since gold isn't exactly a high-return-yielding asset. But whether you're a seasoned investor looking to diversify or a newbie trying to make their way in the markets, investing in gold offers you a glittering safety cushion. Just remember, while gold can make your portfolio shine, it's your smart investment decisions that truly make you golden. Disclaimer: The content on this website is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We recommend readers consult certified, qualified, and registered advisors for professional and personalised financial advice.

Simply put: Can investing in gold this festive season add the much-touted Midas touch to your investments?

Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

Post the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, the yellow metal has been scaling record highs every day. And per a recent <keyword id="22362020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="UBS-report" source="keywords">UBS report</keyword>, its glitter is not going down anytime soon, with gold potentially touching $2,750 by the end of this year, and as much as $2,900 by the third quarter of 2025. Treasury yields, or interest rates have always had an inverse relationship with gold, which is why the metal's demand witnesses a notable uptick, every time the Fed slashes rates. This is because an interest rate cut reduces the yields i.e. returns that investors earn by way of having funds in government treasury bonds. As a result, investors tend to withdraw their money, weakening the dollar, thereby making the yellow metal a lucrative investment option. Going ahead, the markets are anticipating that the Fed will further bring down interest rates again, by around 75-100 basis points by the end of this year. As the CME FedWatch Tool indicates, there is now a 62.2% chance that the Fed will cut down interest rates by another 50 basis point during its meeting in November. This is also why <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have been seeing a healthy growth in both domestic and international markets. According to a report by Angel One, the demand of safe-haven gold is only set to go up in the months to come. Apart from Fed's rate cuts and the upcoming <keyword id="20585365" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-elections" source="keywords">US elections</keyword>, there are tensions brewing globally on the geo-political front, with militant group Hezbollah's leader <keyword id="22445260" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sayyed-hassan-nasrallah" source="keywords">Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah</keyword> killed in a powerful airstrike in Beirut. This has dealt a heavy blow to the Iran-backed group, as it reels from an escalating campaign of Israeli attacks. "In such times, zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment, more likely so in a low-interest rate environment and also, during geopolitical turmoil", the note added. <h2>Momentum set to continue </h2>The bullion recently touched an all-time high price of $2,670 on September 24th, 2024, and has rallied as much as 10% during the past 6 months. Closer home, we are approaching the festive season, as India gears up to celebrate festivals like Diwali (Dhanteras) and Akshaya Tritiya in October. These have long been associated with heightened gold purchases in the country. Particularly, Dhanteras sees a surge in gold buying as it is considered an auspicious time to acquire new assets, majorly gold. As the UBS report states, "the metal's current elevated starting point provides increased scope for gains in the coming months, particularly as ETF demand accelerates. We recommend gold as a strategic hedge within a diversified portfolio, suggesting a 5% allocation to the precious metal". Alekh Yadav, Head of Investment Products at Sanctum Wealth, also advises making some allocation to gold in your portfolio, since gold has a negative correlation with equities; whenever equity markets correct, gold typically performs better. Given that US markets are currently at elevated valuations, gold can serve as a hedge against potential global equity corrections, he explains. "In conclusion, we believe that some allocation to gold, even at current levels, makes sense as a hedge against global risks", he continues. As a thumb rule, you should always have anywhere between 5-10% allocation to gold via digital gold, gold bonds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) etc., since it serves as an effective hedge against inflation, and declining yields. Note that your allocation to gold should not be arbitrary or as a lumpsum, but rather in sync with your overall financial goals, and also, should be increased gradually, via SIPs. However, during prevailing economic conditions, increasing your investments in gold might not be a bad idea as well. But remember to consult with your financial planner over this. Over-investing in gold is also not advisable, since the asset class does not generate high-returns, which means a significant potion of your money could be stuck in a non-yield generating asset, when it could have been in equities or other assets, which generate comparatively more returns.

Is this a good time to invest in gold? Here's what experts are saying

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! The fast-moving, big business of weight-loss drugs is already shifting to its next stage. Here's a rundown of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upcoming-glp1-weight-loss-drugs-to-watch-2024-11">five upcoming pills and injections</a> to keep an eye on.In today's big story, Microsoft's massive bet on AI with Copilot <a target="_blank" href="https://businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-artificial-intelligence-bet-doubts-marc-benioff-satya-nadella-2024-11">has yet to live up to the hype</a>, potentially raising alarms for everyone else investing in the space.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: You can still bet on politics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-political-prediction-bets-trump-2028-nominees-election-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">even though the election is over</a>.</li><li>Tech: Why the Trump-Musk relationship is unlike anything <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11">we've ever seen in US politics</a>.</li><li>Business: Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, but <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spirit-airlines-chapter-11-bankruptcy-restructure-low-cost-airlines-2024-11">tells customers it'll keep flying</a>.</li></ul>But first, is this thing even worth it?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">A Copilot conundrum</h2><div type="image" title="Microsoft logo glitching" height="1000" width="1334" msid="115423174" hostid="261" sizebytes="160900"></div>Microsoft's challenges with its flagship AI product could be another red flag for an industry with high hopes for the tech.Business Insider's Ashley Stewart, our resident Microsoft expert, has a deep dive on Copilot <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ai-artificial-intelligence-bet-doubts-marc-benioff-satya-nadella-2024-11">coming up short on the big expectations laid out for it</a> when it launched over a year ago.CEO Satya Nadella didn't hold back initially, describing Copilot as something that would "fundamentally transform our relationship with technology" when it was unveiled.But internally and among clients, that doesn't always feel like the case. One Microsoft executive told Ashley that Copilot offers useful results about 10% of the time."The rest of the time it's: Why do we even try?" they said.It's an unsettling realization considering the stakes of AI. Many companies — and arguably the entire US stock market — are banking on generative AI being revolutionary. And while Microsoft's bet on AI dwarfs almost everyone else's, its hangup with the tech is something a company of any size can relate to: Is this stuff worth it?It's also not the only challenge the generative AI space is navigating.Reports about OpenAI's newest AI model struggling to show big improvements raised questions about the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-orion-model-scaling-law-silicon-valley-chatgpt-2024-11">tech hitting a performance wall</a>. CEO Sam Altman appeared to address it with a cryptic tweet: "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-ai-wall-slowdown-openai-2024-11">there is no wall</a>."Still, it's feeding concerns about the timeline for artificial general intelligence. AGI is the concept that autonomous computer systems outperform humans at most economically valuable work, but it appears <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/agi-predictions-looking-stretched-openai-sam-altman-google-ai-2024-11">harder to achieve than previously anticipated</a>, writes BI's Alistair Barr.<div type="image" title="AI robot hand gripping a time bomb, displaying a countdown timer set to expire in 2025" height="1500" width="2000" msid="115423171" hostid="261" sizebytes="122298"></div>The counterargument is straightforward: It's still the early innings.Microsoft is adamant its Copilot investment is already paying off. Jared Spataro, a vice president of marketing for Microsoft 365, pointed Ashley to Copilot success stories like Lumen Technologies, which projects $50 million in annual savings from its sales team's use of Copilot.Some customers aren't necessarily worried either, as they continue to plow money into AI. A Flexera survey found OpenAI ranked fourth among vendors that IT leaders plan to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-top-vendor-it-leaders-2024-11">spend the most with next year</a>.But tech players won't have forever to figure things out. Earlier this year, analysts at Barclays highlighted an under-the-radar risk to AI bets: <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-risk-nvidia-gpus-blackwell-tech-outlook-depreciation-accounting-2024-8">the depreciation costs related to AI chips</a>. As firms look to stock up on GPUs, they run the risk of the tech no longer being relevant as new iterations emerge.And then there's the possibility of internal drama. Ashley previously reported on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-pay-data-shows-how-much-more-ai-workers-make-2024-8">the pay disparity at Microsoft</a> between AI-focused employees and everyone else."AI is great and it might be the future, but when are you going to focus on your billpayers?" one employee told Ashley.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Meet the top four candidates Trump is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-treasury-kevin-warsh-marc-rowan-howard-lutnick-scott-bessent-2024-11">considering for Secretary of the Treasury</a>.</li><li>Biden authorizes Ukraine to use powerful ATACMS to strike inside Russia. The move is a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-authorization-2024-11">significant shift in US policy</a>.</li><li>Trump, Musk, and new cabinet picks celebrate election victory with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-musk-celebrate-election-victory-ufc-309-cabinet-picks-2024-11">surprise appearance at UFC</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of judge's gavel on colorfulbackground" height="960" width="1920" msid="115423175" hostid="261" sizebytes="501366"></div><ol><li>A lawsuit about trade secrets has a corner of Wall Street's data industry enthralled. Yipit, a Carlyle-backed provider of credit-card data, filed a lawsuit accusing two former salespeople of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-yipits-lawsuit-against-2-former-employees-who-joined-mscience-2024-11">stealing intellectual property to use in their new roles at rival MScience</a>. The suit has the attention of the young, fiercely competitive industry that sells non-traditional data to investors looking for an edge.</li><li>Just because the election is over doesn't mean you need to stop betting on politics. Who will be the Republican nominee in 2028? Will Matt Gaetz be confirmed as attorney general? Will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve? The prediction markets <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-political-prediction-bets-trump-2028-nominees-election-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">have plenty of political outcomes</a> to scratch your gambling itch.</li><li>It's giving the year 2000 for one legendary investor. Rob Arnott compared the current market to the dot-com peak in 2000. Arnott told BI <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-rob-arnott-warns-bear-market-tech-bubble-2024-11">why a bear market could be forthcoming in the next couple of years</a> thanks to high valuations and AI optimism that is largely priced in.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Elon Musk" height="900" width="1200" msid="115423177" hostid="261" sizebytes="159876"></div><ol><li>Elon Musk's incredible hold on US politics. Politics and money have always been intertwined, but the current relationship between the world's richest man and the president-elect is unprecedented. The result is Musk <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-elected-shadow-president-2024-11">acting almost as a shadow president</a>.</li><li>A potential Trump trade plan beneficiary: US semiconductor jobs. If Trump's proposed trade plan is enacted, the American semiconductor industry could see hiring growth. Industry experts told BI that tariffs on foreign-made chips <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-chips-could-create-more-american-jobs-increase-prices-2024-11">could help level the playing field for US chipmakers</a>, which have faced tough competition from their global counterparts.</li><li>The OpenAI mafia swells its ranks. Nearly two dozen former employees have left the AI juggernaut and founded startups of their own. The latest defectors include OpenAI cofounder and former chief scientist Ilya Sutskever and former chief technology officer Mira Murati. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/former-openai-employees-who-left-launch-vc-backed-ai-startups-2024-1">See what they're up to now</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A $100 bill on top of a house" height="1500" width="1992" msid="115423179" hostid="261" sizebytes="339688"></div><ol><li>Four ways Trump's housing plans could hurt homebuyers and three ways it could help. Trump promised to make housing more affordable in part by deporting millions of immigrants, slashing construction regulations, and building houses on federal land. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-high-home-prices-housing-mortgage-rates-deregulation-tariffs-immigration-2024-11">Here's how experts think that would actually pan out</a>.</li><li>Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The budget airline has struggled since a planned merger with JetBlue was called off in March. In an open letter to customers, it said people can continue to book tickets and fly as normal as it <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spirit-airlines-chapter-11-bankruptcy-restructure-low-cost-airlines-2024-11">undergoes financial restructuring</a>.</li><li>Walmart might be just fine under Trump's proposed trade plan. Target, not so much. As America's grocery king, Walmart US makes nearly 60% of its revenue from groceries, which are predominantly domestic. But Target often relies on imported merchandise, such as apparel and beauty. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/target-walmart-trump-tariffs-exposure-analysts-2024-11">Walmart also has another key advantage: scale</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>Disney CEO Bob Iger is moving to cement his legacy <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-disney-earnings-guidance-succession-legacy-chapek-media-analysis-2024-11">by undoing his biggest mistake</a>.</li><li>Shoppers and businesses are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://l.businessinsider.com/a/click?_t=c8e10479a20f45bba5aad6c5f6fbb009&amp;_m=c30b8703d160410398dd34e9584c94a3&amp;_e=i25E5ONB4tMiXtE06VeSaaFdC9RBeKEf6Am3QwaEcB2E4JdSqnDqmYr-387ig-ruhUxPoPCaat-voaDbfD_6S9r_lRX7w-hriYUuLZLf0oBVVklUgTGSC4rQQEsaV2VrmBmyEJBbhb5t_4ii9kzf5mGNs24JHBU4kD2t77qvgLde0_hccfFyZJGyX-HSEOcVt3hm2j3fy4fJUboGG4PKvgV09z0iPgS9Sd9YYBa5vfJF0tPkg6nqTPSf_-4F-a8aB1csTjQJYq2n-O1Ho511puOlxNeZs4WzL5ZST0WJkZqjescVMWVojaLY68-GnLbrAONhAtYwR4sRYyo_gVAswrtOyO2OjgTQ7GPu_kEO5SvlrvfmHChZsIOFVxvPWR7cGcH5q-QsclhVCpi1tyVirT8OKMZUsBjylVY0fJJZOSkOO4NwglFhyDOfQDrbf0_ErXhpUTPhEJeNs9bRlNwOVGxCBs2oCYN7T81FPiuSVJw%3D">stockpiling to avoid potential price hikes</a> before Trump takes office.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>G20 summit begins in Rio de Janeiro.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Microsoft Copilot's underperformance is the latest red flag for investments in AI

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest in moving to Canada has spiked among Americans after the election.</li><li>Beyond the physical move, there are financial considerations that potential movers should know of.</li></ul>The result of the 2024 elections left about half of the US displeased. As Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House, many Americans began considering a move up north, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">Google search traffic</a> at least.Interest in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/we-moved-to-canada-not-perfect-but-prefer-over-us-2024-11">moving to Canada</a> tends to spike after big political events such as the <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2016-11-01%202016-11-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">2016 election</a> and the <a target="_blank" href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2022-06-01%202022-06-30&amp;geo=US&amp;q=moving%20to%20canada&amp;hl=en-US">overturning of the Roe v. Wade</a> Supreme Court ruling.This phenomenon doesn't just live on the internet, either — some US residents are seriously considering the move."Even when Trump was elected last time, a lot of people felt that they weren't as comfortable staying in the States, and so we actually did see an influx of people moving to Canada," said Tiffany Woodfield, a senior financial advisor at SWAN Wealth Management of Raymond James.Moving, especially across borders, is a big decision and shouldn't be taken lightly. While the physical act of moving is complicated enough, Woodfield points out that there are a lot of financial considerations to be aware of."I think sometimes it can be a knee-jerk reaction," Woodfield said of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/we-moved-to-canada-not-perfect-but-prefer-over-us-2024-11">moving to Canada</a>. "If they don't plan ahead of time, they can fall into traps that end up costing them money."<h2 id="c4feab40-7084-4563-951b-72a890ad2b58">You need to file US and Canadian taxes</h2>US citizens residing in Canada might not realize that even on the other side of the border, they're still not free from their tax obligations to Uncle Sam.If you are a US citizen, you still need to file federal US taxes and report your worldwide income to the IRS no matter where you live. In Canada, taxes are based on your residency status, so if you spend more than 183 days of the year living in Canada, you owe the Canadian government taxes.To prevent ex-pats from getting taxed twice on their income, the US and Canada have a tax treaty that provides a foreign income tax credit for any income tax paid to the other country, Woodfield explained. That means you can offset your US tax liability with taxes already paid to Canada, but you still need to file two separate tax returns — one to Canada and one to the US — to receive a tax credit.Additionally, the promise of free healthcare in Canada might sound enticing, but that does come at the cost of higher taxes, so be aware that your Canadian tax bill will probably be higher than what you paid in the US. You also don't have the option to file joint income tax returns with your spouse in Canada, Woodfield warned.<h2 id="7d31b42f-84db-43c3-b2f8-4f871c9958bf">Some Canadian investments have complicated tax implications</h2>"As a US person living in Canada, you don't want to invest in Canadian mutual funds or Canadian ETFs," Woodfield said. That's because these investments are considered Passive Foreign Income Corporations (PFIC) by the US government.PFICs are subject to unfavorable tax treatment from the IRS. The associated tax forms are lengthy and complicated, and you may end up paying high tax rates. If you're still a US citizen, investing in a Canadian mutual fund or ETF simply isn't worth the hassle.<h2 id="0333acc5-88aa-436b-bf74-7cb1b79b71b0">Bringing your retirement plan over the border can be tricky.</h2>401(k)s are a popular way to save for retirement here in the US, but Canadian employers offer a different type of retirement plan: the Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP).Once you move to Canada, you won't be able to actively manage the holdings in your 401(k), according to Woodfield. One workaround is to roll your 401(k) to an IRA and have it managed in Canada. US citizens should also be aware that, in most cases, they won't be able to contribute to their IRA once they move to Canada.Another option is to transfer your US retirement account into an RRSP. However, if you choose this step, make sure you're committed to moving to Canada permanently, as you cannot move RRSPs to IRAs, Woodfield said.You may not be able to bring your brokerage accounts over the border, either. Some people don't realize this until they update their address with their US brokerage account after moving and receive a letter informing them that they have to close out their account.<h2 id="2d468c1f-efc0-45a8-9a7c-53c03c550ff1">You'll need a new financial advisor…and a lot of time</h2>US financial advisors are prohibited by law from providing Canadian residents with financial advice, as they aren't licensed in Canada. If you want expert advice, you need to work with a dual Canada / US licensed advisor.The earlier you start preparing for your cross-border move, the better — ideally, one to two tax years before moving, Woodfield said. That way, you can plan certain taxable events ahead of time and realize the greatest amount of savings, such as liquidating mutual funds. It's also easier to sell your home while you're still in the US, Woodfield said.If you've already begun the moving process or you're already in Canada, don't panic. Woodfield has worked with plenty of people after they've already moved, but the more time you give yourself, the better.Moving across the border is no simple feat, so make sure you're confident about your choice."I've had clients that have moved, and then after the fact, they think, 'Oh, I shouldn't have done this,'" Woodfield said."It's very hard to go back, so people need to be aware of that."

Americans moving to Canada should be aware of these 4 tax and investment implications

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The price of gold hit all-time highs this week.</li><li>Falling interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions boost gold's appeal as a safe haven asset.</li></ul>The price of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">gold</a> has soared this year.The precious metal hit a record high of $2,772 per troy ounce this week and has risen in six of the past seven weeks.With year-to-date gains of about 33%, gold returns have outpaced the broader stock market, including the tech-heavy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a>, by about 10 percentage points.And since the bull market in stocks began in October 2022, gold has outpaced equity gains, returning 67% compared to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500's</a> return of about 63%, according to data from YCharts.Those superior returns make the metal one of the world's hottest investments.The largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares, has $78 billion in assets under management and has seen about $5 billion of inflows in the past six months, according to data from ETF.com.Physical gold is also having a moment. Costco has consistently sold out of gold bars when they become available on their website and Wells Fargo estimates that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-gold-bars-silver-coins-monthly-sales-wells-fargo-bullion-2024-4">Costco sells up to $200 million in gold bars</a> and silver coins to its members each month.It's been a perfect storm for the yellow metal, and the outlook suggests more gains ahead. Here's what's going on.<h3 id="5edb3548-699e-4d4d-ba18-d306c30fcf12">Demand from central banks</h3>Global central banks have been on a gold-buying spree over the past few years.According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased a record 483 tons of gold in the first half of the year. Central banks from Turkey, India, and China topped the list of the biggest buyers.Part of the surge in demand is from countries that want to diversify their holdings away from the US dollar. "We believe that the tripling in central bank purchases since mid-2022 on fears about US financial sanctions and US sovereign debt is structural and will continue," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-outlook-buy-continued-rally-next-year-2025-goldman-2024-9">Goldman Sachs said</a> in a note last month.This dynamic has been on display since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, as America sought to inflict maximum economic damage on Russia via sanctions. But it's harder to implement sanctions against a country that is less reliant on the dollar, and one way to be less reliant on the dollar is to buy gold.It is a dynamic that the US should be closely monitoring, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian.El-Erian wrote <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/b5fb1e6b-bb8d-4ab5-9c92-f1f6fc40a54b?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=emailhttps://www.ft.com/content/b5fb1e6b-bb8d-4ab5-9c92-f1f6fc40a54b?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email">in an op-ed for the FT</a> this week that the persistent rise in gold "captures an increasingly persistent behavioural trend among China and 'middle power' countries.""There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of the international architecture for some 80 years."Russia has had some success with this, as it's managed to navigate its economy away from a full-fledged downturn after the US imposed wide-ranging sanctions in 2022.Russia's ability to steer its de-dollarized economy away from a crisis could give other countries confidence to lessen their dependence on the dollar, which ultimately benefits gold."What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar's dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system," El-Erian said. "As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system.<h3 id="8959c97e-7efe-42f8-a1a3-3fa362c5ac51">Geopolitical tensions</h3>Gold is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-safe-haven-treasurys-us-national-debt-bofa-fiscal-expansion-2024-10">considered a safe haven asset</a> due to its long-standing history as a stable store of value.So when geopolitical tensions rise, investors tend to flock to the shiny metal, and right now, there is no shortage of reasons to be worried.From Russia's war against Ukraine to the escalating clashes in the Middle East to China's long-running threat against Taiwan's independence, geopolitical tensions are rising, not falling.What's more, soaring US debt means that Treasurys—another historical safe haven asset—might not be so risk-free anymore."Gold looks to be the last 'safe haven' asset standing, incentivising traders including central banks to increase exposure," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-safe-haven-treasurys-us-national-debt-bofa-fiscal-expansion-2024-10">Bank of America said</a> in a note this month. <h3 id="29ec9208-7951-47bd-89c8-75f2d6320ca9">The Trump trade</h3>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade has picked up steam recently</a> as the former president's odds of winning the election have risen, and gold has been a big beneficiary.That's because a potential Trump presidency is expected to be accompanied by a soaring government deficit and a fast-growing pile of debt, which would further drive concerns about a rebound in inflation and the sustainability of the US dollar."If you're worried about fiscal profligacy, financial repression, and attacks on Fed independence, gold would be an attractive asset," economist Davix Oxley of Capital Economics said on Friday.Even if Trump doesn't win the election, the deficit is likely to grow, setting gold up well for more gains, according to Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick."It's not as though either candidate is preaching fiscal discipline, and the Fed seems willing to keep cutting even if inflation remains a bit above target. So there is a thought that gold could be a viable alternative if rates rise and the economy remains sound. And if the economy isn't sound it could still be a good store of value," Sosnick told Business Insider."<h3 id="dadb04c2-defd-4fe4-a269-2b48d277b4de">Interest rates</h3>According to data from the World Gold Council, falling interest rates have historically benefited gold prices, with the commodity rising as much as 10% in the six months after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.With the Fed expected to cut interest rates multiple times over the next year, lower rates should serve as a tailwind for gold prices.While interest rates<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10"> actually jumped since the Fed's first rate cut</a> last month, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting its highest level since July this week, gold prices have continued to rise.That's a sign that gold investors are more focused on the global interest-rate path, which is pointing lower as global central banks look poised to loosen monetary policy.The People's Bank of China cut rates by 25 basis points this week, while the Bank of Canada cut by 50 basis points. The European Central lowered rates by 25 basis points last week, and economists say they see the Bank of England <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/why-economists-see-the-uk-cutting-interest-rates-more-substantially.html">set to deliver bigger rate cuts</a> than previously expected by markets.

How gold became one of the world's hottest investments

New Delhi: <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around USD 11.2 billion) from the Indian <keyword id="19925636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-market" source="keywords">stock market</keyword> in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of <keyword id="20295104" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-stocks" source="keywords">Chinese stocks</keyword>. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024. Since June, FPIs have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May. Overall, FPIs have been net buyers in 2024, except for January, April and May, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead, the trajectory of global events like geopolitical developments, interest rate movements, progress in the Chinese economy and the outcome of the US Presidential election will play a crucial role in shaping future foreign investment in <keyword id="20014814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equities" source="keywords">Indian equities</keyword>, Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India, said. On the domestic front, key indicators like inflation trajectory, corporate earnings, and the impact of festive season demand will also be closely watched by FPIs as they assess opportunities in the Indian market, he added. According to the data, FPIs recorded a net outflow of Rs 94,017 crore in October. The intensity of net outflows could be gauged from the fact that except for one day, FPIs were net sellers throughout the month, bringing their total investment for 2024 down to Rs 6,593 crore. This relentless selling resulted in about an 8 per cent decline in benchmark indices from their peaks. Several factors contributed towards this massive withdrawal of foreign capital from the Indian equity markets in October. The major among them is the elevated valuations of Indian equities. This has triggered a shift in investments towards China, where valuations are currently more attractive. Additionally, a series of stimulus measures, aimed at bolstering Chinese economic growth has made Chinese equities increasingly appealing to global investors, Srivastava said. Despite the massive FPI selling in financials, this sector is resilient since the valuations are fair and every selling is being absorbed by DIIs and individual investors, particularly HNIs, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. In addition, FPIs pulled out Rs 4,406 crore from the debt general limit and invested Rs 100 crore from the debt Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market.

FPIs withdraw record Rs 94,000 cr from Indian equities in Oct on attractive Chinese valuations

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has said he plans to bring down gas prices by boosting US oil production.</li><li>ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods doesn't see a US oil boom in the near future.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's promise to unleash a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">big oil boom</a> in the US and lower gas prices is running up against a market reality: The world is already awash in fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/12/2024/exxon-ceo-darren-woods-donald-trump-shouldnt-scrap-methane-regulations">Semafor</a> on November 12 that while he wants to maintain US oil production at its current highs, the market is already well supplied. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," he said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term." During the presidential campaign, Trump said that he planned to lower energy prices — including the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">cost of gas</a> — by increasing US oil production. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/10/the-issues-trumps-proposal-to-lower-prices-by-increasing-energy-production/">said</a> in October. "I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." In September, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">said</a> he would reduce gas prices to below $2 a gallon. Energy analysts told Business Insider that big oil companies are more focused on returning money to shareholders than investing in projects that boost production, especially because China isn't importing as much oil due to its economic downturn. Their comments underscore how little control a US president has over the oil and gas market, including prices at the pump. "It's a global market," Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, told BI. "There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill added that he expects the US to increase oil production, but it will happen gradually. The US is already producing record amounts of oil, at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">12.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2023</a> compared with about 11 million barrels per day in 2020, when Trump was in office. Last year, the US also became the world's biggest exporter of natural gas. In October, the US Energy Information Administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-eia-expects-domestic-crude-oil-production-reach-135-mbd-2025.html#:~:text=At%20a%20global%20scale%2C%20the,13.5%20mb%2Fd%20in%202025.">projected</a> that the US would produce 13.5million barrels a day in 2025, hitting another record. And there is room for the industry to expand. Woods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/exxon-ceo-says-us-election-wont-affect-oil-production.html">told</a> CNBC earlier this month that there are areas in the Gulf of Mexico — where federal leasing hasn't allowed companies to drill — that could be a source of additional oil production in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told BI that Trump could take some steps to try to boost US oil production, including easing regulations to open up additional places for companies to drill and working with OPEC. However, he said boosting oil production while keeping prices at a desired level is a "delicate balance" for the industry. "If oil prices drop, you're likely to see a natural decline in US oil production over the long run," he said, adding, "Oil companies have shareholders to be accountable to." In recent years, the US has increased oil production even as President Joe Biden imposed stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to help slow the climate crisis. In a separate interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-says-trump-should-keep-u-s-in-paris-climate-pact-3d8de471">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Woods added that the US shouldn't drop out of the Paris Agreement as Trump did in his first term and has promised to do again. The nearly 200 countries signed onto that agreement <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-strike-historic-climate-dealfossil-fuels-dubai-2023-12">struck a deal last year at the UN climate summit </a>to move away from fossil fuels this decade and the triple renewable energy by 2030. Woods told Semafor that he supports Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Exxon and other US oil majors have goals to reduce emissions, but climate scientists warn<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxon-chevron-investors-reject-climate-change-proposals-2023-6">they aren't aggressive enough</a> to avert catastrophic levels of global warming.

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