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<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new poll showed Kamala Harris had a surprise 3-point lead over Trump in Iowa.</li><li>Betting odds on Robinhood and Kalshi tightened following the news.</li></ul>Vice President Kamala Harris' betting odds jumped overnight after a new poll showed she held a surprise lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iowa-poll-standing-harris-presidential-election-2024-9">a state he won easily</a> in both 2016 and 2020.A <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/">Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll</a> by Selzer &amp; Co. published on Saturday showed Harris with a three-point lead in the state.The results were reflected in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-national-polls-women-gender-gap-election-2024-10">tightening odds</a> in betting markets on Sunday morning.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kalshi.com/">On Kalshi</a>, the popular US-based prediction platform, Harris' odds of winning the election have soared from 35% on October 29 to 50% at the time of writing.Harris' odds of winning the popular vote also increased on Kalshi, rising from a low of about 61% on October 29 to 77% at the time of writing.The electronic trading platform Robinhood also showed narrowing odds ahead of Tuesday's election.Trump held a 66% to 39% lead on October 29, but at the time of writing, that lead had narrowed to 52% to 51%.The Iowa poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and October 31, with a 3.4-point margin of error.The results marked a sharp swing from September when the same poll showed Trump ahead by four points.Betting markets have capitalized on this year's presidential election. Kalshi attracted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-betting-odds-trump-vs-harris-polymarket-kalshi-robinhood-2024-10">more than $100 million</a> in bets on who will win in October alone.Meanwhile, Polymarket, another prediction market — not available to US citizens — saw betting volume for the US election reach more than $2 billion on its platform last month, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theblock.co/post/321725/polymarket-betting-volume-for-us-presidential-election-winner-crosses-2-billion">The Block</a> reported.

Election betting odds tighten as polls show Harris has momentum

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): The mammoth exercise to count votes polled for the Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections will begin at 8 am on Tuesday, with trends and results following shortly thereafter. Results of the <keyword id="6372146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Assembly-elections" source="Orion">Assembly elections</keyword> in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh were held simultaneously with voting for the 543-member Lok Sabha. Results of 175 Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh and 147 Assembly constituencies in Odisha and results of bypolls in 25 Assembly constituencies will also be declared today. Here're the LIVE results: <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Strict security has been put in place for the smooth conduct of counting of votes for over 8,000 candidates in this general elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third consecutive term in government, while the Congress-led opposition aims to unseat them. Most <keyword id="43771" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="Orion">exit polls</keyword> have predicted a return of PM Modi to power, a development which will make him the first Prime Minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a third successive term in power, Meanwhile, a delegation of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc leaders met with the Election Commission of India urging it to ensure that postal ballots are counted and their results declared before the outcome of the EVMs is announced. Earlier, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar had said that a "very robust system" has been put in place. "There are around 10.5 lakh booths. Each booth will have 14 tables. There are observers and micro-observers. Nearly, 70-80 lakh people are involved in the process," he said. The national capital is all set to witness the battle. With tight security arrangements in place, Delhi is well-prepared to watch the results of the 2024 <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-Elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>. Around 70 companies of the security forces will be deployed at all seven counting centres across the national capital as part of the elaborate security arrangements made by the Delhi Police for today. Delhi traffic police issued a fresh advisory ahead of the counting of votes scheduled for Tuesday, listing key roads where traffic restrictions and diversions will start from 5 am onwards to ensure smooth vehicular movement. Prime Minister Modi's hometown, Gujarat, is also preparing for the vote-counting day as security forces rehearse and perform drills for the effortless conduct of D-day. Exit polls have predicted the return of the BJP to power. Various exit polls have given the BJP more than 64 seats in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised for a hat-trick win in Lok Sabha polls with a massive majority. Exit polls were predicted on Saturday and indicated that the ruling party at the Centre would improve its performance in several states ruled by other parties. A few exit polls predicted that the BJP-led NDA could reach the goal of "400 paar" stated by BJP leaders in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls. The exit polls predicted that the ruling BJP-led NDA is poised to improve its performance over its 2019 record when it won 352 seats. Two polls predicted the BJP would also improve its numbers from the 303 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2019 elections, NDA wrested 353 seats, of which the BJP won 303 alone. The Opposition's UPA got only 93 seats of which the Congress got 52. The Lok Sabha elections were conducted in seven phases- on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25 and June 1. The counting trends and results, as per data entered by RO/ARO for AC/PC will be available on the ECI website as well as on the Voter Helpline App, both iOS and Android Mobile Apps, according to the ECI. The Voter Helpline App can be downloaded from the Google Play Store or Apple Play Store. Users can use the available filter to find out the winning/leading or trailing candidate details, along with the constituency-wise or State-wise results from the Voter Helpline App. The local display of the trends and results by the CEOs/ROs/DEOs may also be done through the Digital Display Panels, it said.

Lok Sabha elections 2024 results: Mammoth vote-counting exercise set to begin at 8 am, amid high security

With latest trends showing the BJP falling below the majority mark, the Congress on Tuesday said it has become clear that it will be a staggering political and decisively <keyword id="21932463" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moral-defeat" source="keywords">moral defeat</keyword> for <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. Counting of votes are underway for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, with BJP emerging as the single largest party but not getting a majority. <keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> on Saturday predicted that Prime Minister Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority in the Lok Sabha polls. Congress general secretary <keyword id="20035989" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jairam-Ramesh" source="keywords">Jairam Ramesh</keyword> in a post on X said the exit polls have been completely exposed for what they were -- "a <keyword id="21932465" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="total-sham" source="Orion">total sham</keyword>." "Trends for all 543 seats are now available. The following have become clear: It will be a staggering political and decisively moral defeat for Mr. Narendra Modi," Ramesh said. He said it has also become clear that "the exit polls that he orchestrated have been completely exposed for what they were--a total sham." Early trends from counting of votes on Tuesday threw up disappointing results for the BJP-led NDA in the Lok Sabha elections, which appears to be losing heavily in its strongholds of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan although it is expected to form the government with about 290 seats. On its own, the BJP appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 240 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

Election trends show moral defeat for Narendra Modi, expose exit polls as a "total sham": Congress general secretary

<ul><li>Five states voted on some form of change to the minimum wage in Tuesday's US elections.</li><li>Missouri approved a raise, while Massachusetts and Arizona rejected changing how tipped workers are paid.</li><li>Results in Alaska and California were unclear early Wednesday.</li></ul>While economic issues were a major focus of this year's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11" target="_blank">US presidential election</a>, several states put pay directly on the ballot, and minimum-wage workers in at least one state are now set to get a raise after voting concluded Tuesday. Missouri, Massachusetts, California, and Alaska all had some form of referendum on their ballots on whether to hike the minimum wage paid by employers. In Massachusetts, voters were asked whether to gradually increase the share of tipped workers' pay that employers must provide, while voters in the three other states were presented with proposals for straightforward minimum-wage increases. In Arizona, voters weighed in on whether to decrease the tipped minimum wage — provided employers could show workers' wages would stay $2 above the state minimum when accounting for tips. Shortly after polls closed in Missouri, it was clear that the referendum there had passed. Voters in Massachusetts and Arizona rejected their proposals, and California and Alaska were still awaiting their results as of early Wednesday. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Missouri</h2>In Missouri, voters opted to raise the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. Per The New York Times, roughly 58% of Missouri voters had supported the measure as of early Wednesday, with some votes still uncounted. The measure, <a href="https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures#:~:text=Official%20Ballot%20Title%0AProposition,Proposed%20by%20Initiative%20Petition" target="_blank">Proposition A</a>, is set to first raise the minimum wage to $13.75 an hour from $12.30 on January 1 and then increase it again to $15 an hour on January 1, 2026. Starting in 2027, the wage is set to be pegged to inflation. The measure also mandates that employers give their workers an hour of paid leave for every 30 hours they work. Missouri separately voted in favor of former President Donald Trump, who said he'd "consider" a minimum-wage hike if it proved beneficial for small businesses. His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, had pledged support for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour from $7.25. A group of Missouri business owners in favor of the measure praised Proposition A's passage on Tuesday evening. "Proposition A will strengthen Missouri's workforce and businesses," David Burmeister, the owner of Midwest Pasta Co. in St. Louis, said in a press release. "Raising the minimum wage will increase people's ability to shop at our business and local businesses across Missouri. We've seen that paying better wages is better business. Employees are happier at work and do a better job." <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Massachusetts</h2>In <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/publications/information-for-voters-24/quest_5.htm" target="_blank">Massachusetts</a>, employers won't be required to gradually raise tipped workers' base pay to match the state's minimum wage. The measure failed, with the Times reporting at the time of publication that 64% of voters had rejected it out of the votes counted so far. The measure, which would have begun taking shape on January 1, wouldn't have actually raised the legal minimum wage for tipped workers but instead would have raised the share of that minimum wage that employers were required to provide. Currently, Massachusetts employers are required to pay tipped workers a base pay of $6.75 an hour and then make up the difference if those workers' total pay counting tips is less than $15 an hour. The failed measure would have ultimately required employers to directly pay tipped workers the state's full minimum wage by 2029. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Arizona</h2>In Arizona, voters rejected a measure that would have let employers reduce their base pay for tipped workers. <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/alispdfs/Council/2024BallotMeasures/adopted%20analysis%20Proposition%20138%20SCR1040%20-%202024.pdf" target="_blank">Proposition 138</a> proposed allowing employers to pay tipped workers up to 25% less than the state's minimum wage, with the corollary that employers would need to establish their workers were still making the minimum wage plus an additional $2 an hour when accounting for tips. The Times reported that out of the votes counted so far, nearly 76% of voters had rejected the measure. That means that employers in Arizona can continue to pay their tipped workers $3 less than the current hourly minimum wage as long as workers are still making at least the minimum wage when accounting for tips. Correction: November 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story included a sentence that incorrectly described the result of the ballot measure in Massachusetts. The system in which tipped workers are required to be paid at least $15 an hour through a combination of tips and a $6.75 hourly wage is the current system in Massachusetts, not a proposal on the ballot measure that voters rejected. The story was also updated to clarify the ballot results. The percentages attributed to The New York Times reflected the latest tally as votes were being counted, not New York Times projections for the final result. The specific figure of 76% in Arizona referred to the share of voters at the time who had rejected the ballot measure there, not the margin by which voters rejected the measure.

Workers in Missouri can look forward to raises after minimum-wage boosts passed

The votes are in, the election commission is armed, and tallies are finally being made. As lakhs of viewers tune into their news to update themselves, many are coming away shocked at the current standings. Despite confident promises of capturing 400 of the 543 Indian seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (<keyword id="19894848" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BJP" source="keywords">BJP</keyword>) has barely won a dozen or two seats more than the halfway mark of 272, as per the initial few rounds of counting. This is still an impressive position to be in, and certainly enough to help the BJP-led <keyword id="105903" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-democratic-alliance" source="Orion">National Democratic Alliance</keyword> (<keyword id="19938590" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDA" source="keywords">NDA</keyword>) make another term. However, the overwhelming, yet lukewarm, support has inadvertently deflated the ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ chant echoed by the party throughout its campaigning. Further, this comes mere days after Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath called the slogan the ‘common man’s mantra’. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Exit polls gone wrong" comment="subhead" text="Exit polls gone wrong"><keyword id="21129157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exit-polls" source="keywords">Exit polls</keyword> gone wrong</cmsannotation> Party conjecture aside, most exit polls had also predicted a landslide victory for the NDA, with some even predicting the party crossing the 400 marks, helping the alliance comfortably bring in a third term for current Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>. However, Congress leaders staunchly dismissed these findings, asserting that the <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">INDIA</keyword> alliance will achieve at least over 250 seats this election. While exit polls have exercised a notoriously patchy reputation for delivering inaccurate findings in the past, the surveys might have gotten it wrong far more than usual this time around. For instance, the BJP has been predicted to win 400 seats by News 24-Today’s Chanakya poll, 358 as per Times Now-ETG, 392 per India V-CNX. <table class="redcator-table-advance" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; box-shadow: none; width: 955.049px; font-family: Merriweather; padding-bottom: 10px !important; background-image: inherit !important; background-position: inherit !important; background-size: inherit !important; background-repeat: inherit !important; background-attachment: inherit !important; background-origin: inherit !important; background-clip: inherit !important;"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;"> </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">NDA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">INDIA</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Others</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Times Now - ETG </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">358</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">152</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Matrize - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">361</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">126</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">56</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Jan Ki Baat - NDTV </td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">377</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">151</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">15</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">PMARQ - Republic</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">359</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">154</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">30</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India News - D-Dynamics</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">371</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">125</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">47</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Today's Chanakya - News24</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">400</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">107</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">36</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">India TV</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">386</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">124</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">33</td></tr><tr><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">Poll of polls</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">369</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">143</td><td style="padding: 5px; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); font-size: 16px; vertical-align: top;">31</td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody><tbody></tbody></table> However, the Modi-led alliance has yet to cross the 300 mark. If this trend holds, a majority government will form with BJP-led NDA acquiring slightly below 300 seats, almost mirroring exact forecasts by on-ground reporters and some political experts. However, this is quite in contrast with almost all exit polls this election season. If the scorecard settles at the current mark, this will end up becoming the poorest performance for NDA since their historic win in 2014. The alliance came to power after winning an overwhelming 336 seats in 2014, and 353 seats in 2019. However, the main point of shock has come from the performance of Congress and the INDIA bloc, who have maintained a steadfast 200+ seats since the initial polling rounds. Out of the nine odd exit polls that came out with results recently, none had predicted the INDIA bloc to win over 150-170 seats. As the tallying moves into its final phases, let’s look at how exit polls performed in the previous election cycles. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2014 elections" comment="subhead" text="2014 elections">2014 elections</cmsannotation> In 2014, 834 million voters participated in the largest-ever elections worldwide — only to be surpassed by the 2019 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> elections. An average of eight exit polls had indicated that the BJP would see a 283-seat victory, while the opposition would have had to settle for 105 seats. Just as predicted, the BJP saw a landslide victory and swooped in 282 of the 543 seats, with a vote percentage of 31.3%. This win was a huge blow to the INC, which only won 44 seats compared to the 206 in 2009. Since a party must win at least 55 seats to become an official opposition party in India, the Congress’s defeat meant that there was no official opposition party for India. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="2019 elections" comment="subhead" text="2019 elections">2019 elections</cmsannotation> The previous Lok Sabha elections turned out to be an even bigger win for the BJP! In 2019, exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would peak at 306 and that the INC-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would win just 120. However, the post-poll statistics turned out to be underwhelming. The BJP won a whopping 37.36% of the vote — the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections. It won 303 seats, while the NDA collectively won 352 seats. It was another crushing defeat for the Congress, which won just 52 seats, failing to claim the post of Leader of the Opposition once again.

Trends indicate INDIA maintaining 200+ seats, defying all exit poll predictions; how accurate have these surveys been since 2014?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US dollar is likely to be the first asset to signal what markets think the election result will be.</li><li>Strong liquidity and global 24-hour trading activity make the dollar a reliable indicator.</li></ul>The US dollar might be the most important asset to watch for a potential read on the US election results as the votes are tallied this week.Raymond James' chief investment strategist David Zervos said that the US dollar will be the first asset to telegraph the likely winner as markets digest the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency. In an interview with CNBC, Zervos said the dollar "will be the most liquid and the most transparent messaging to what we are getting markets to do because that's where people could put money to work fast."He highlighted that the US dollar is traded 24/7 with massive liquidity from trading parties around the world. Therefore, as election results roll in during the late hours of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the dollar will likely be the first asset class to move on the results.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">dollar is seen as rising under a potential Trump presidency,</a> as his tariff proposals would likely raise interest rates, which in turn would lead to a stronger dollar.On the flip side, a falling US dollar would likely suggest that a Kamala Harris victory is reflected in the election results because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">interest rates are seen as more likely to continue falling under a Harris administration,</a> putting downward pressure on the dollar.As for how to get a read on who markets think will win, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">the US dollar index </a>will be a strong gauge of how traders are digesting the early election results. The index measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">has rallied over the past month</a> as former President Donald Trump gained momentum in the polls and in betting markets.Beyond the dollar index, Zervos said it would be important to watch moves in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-cny">the dollar relative to the Chinese renminbi</a>. "Dollar-China has been a big trade because people saw that as a real Trump winning trade, meaning he's going to go hard on China," Zervos said. "That's got a lot of crowded positioning in it. I'd be watching dollar-China very closely overnight," Zervos said.Zervos expects a relief rally in risk assets as uncertainty surrounding the election begins to fade, assuming the results are decisive and known relatively soon."I think people really want to see smoothness here, then we can just see risk assets do better, we could see credit do better. We could see the panicky trades that people might have put on get pulled off," Zervos said.Ultimately, Zervos said he'll change his stock and bond investments based on the dollar's reaction to the election results."We watch the dollar, that's our first indication of where the repositioning is taking place and then we can feed that back into bonds and stocks and different sectors," Zervos said.

Why the US dollar is the most important asset to watch as the election results come in

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were lower Monday as investors braced for the US presidential election. </li><li>Record voter turnout is expected, with over 76 million early votes already cast.</li></ul>US stocks traded slightly lower on Monday as investors prepared for an action-packed week of events.All eyes are on the US Presidential election, with polls set to close Tuesday evening. So far, more than 76 million Americans have voted via mail-in ballots or via early in-person voting, suggesting potential record turnout this year. After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">a shock Iowa poll showed Kamala Harris leading the state</a> against Donald Trump over the weekend, betting odds have tightened in the race after Trump spent the weeks leading up to the vote far ahead of Harris. For a full rundown of the implications for the economy and stock market based on who wins the election, read BI's deep dive on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">the potential impacts here.</a>After the election, investors will shift their attention to the Federal Reserve. The central bank's FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">with an interest rate decision expected on Thursday.</a>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points.Investors will also pay attention to initial jobless claims and productivity data, set to be released Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,711.31, down 0.31%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,893.80, down 0.38% (-158.39)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,121.72, down 0.62%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-cut-quarterly-earnings-2024-11">Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in Apple again. The conglomerate is now sitting of $325 billion in cash.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for crude-exporting countries.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Wall Street professionals expect Donald Trump to win the Presidential election, according to a new survey.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 2.59% to $71.29 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.42% to $74.87 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 0.19% to $2,754.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 11 basis points to 4.284%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> decreased 0.17% to $68.627.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade lower as investors brace for US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The United States is preparing for civil unrest surrounding the election.</li><li>Election Day itself isn't as high of a risk as the postelection period, analysts say.</li></ul>The turmoil that took place after the last US presidential election has left its mark.So this time around, as Election Day looms, businesses and governments around the country are preparing in advance — especially if the results are close.The consensus going into Election Day is that will be the case.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">Seven swing states</a> offer multiple avenues for each candidate to win. And the final polls have largely shown the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as a virtual tie nationally.Glen Kucera, an executive at Allied Universal, a private security company, told Business Insider that his clientele are concerned enough to seek more resources to protect themselves and their businesses."The threat is kind of imminent and everywhere," Kucera said. "We're trying to get ahead of the threat."In the final stretch before Election Day, it seems like everyone — from voter advocacy groups and election officials to risk management and security companies — is preparing for civil unrest."I think what is also now on people's minds is the emotion, the anger that goes with some of these elections," Kucera said. "We're being deployed to try to figure all those imminent threats out and try to protect the public as we go into this election."But just how high is the risk?<h2 id="6f2d6248-0787-4c0f-9dc3-5d53c2aad9c9">Election Day isn't the biggest worry</h2>Election Day itself isn't likely to be the most high-risk day for unrest because there will be extensive protective measures taken, said Rachel Brown, an expert on violence, hate speech, and civic engagement at Over Zero, which works to deter identity-based violence."I wouldn't expect us to see a high level of organized violence. People should feel safe voting, and if there is any danger, it's likely to be very highly localized, such as a single person taking action where there seem to be groups trying to mobilize," Brown said on Friday at a press panel hosted by the National Task Force on Election Crises (NTFEC), a cross-partisan election organization.That appears to be the case in Washington and Oregon, where authorities are searching for what they say is a lone actor responsible for placing incendiary devices on at least two ballot drop boxes, burning hundreds of ballots. Officials in Clark County, Washington, where some 488 ballots were damaged, said in a press release that they have been in contact with the majority of the voters affected to issue them replacement ballots.<div type="image" title="A ballot box was damaged in Multnomah County in Portland, Oregon." height="1500" width="2250" msid="114923430" hostid="261" sizebytes="146584"></div>There are protections in place for the voting process, voters, and election workers, Brown said. Voter intimidation is criminal and prosecutable, and locally, voting sites are preparing for any incidents, including swatting attacks, where a fake call is made to law enforcement to trigger an armed response, Brown said."Some of the threats that many of us aren't even thinking about day to day, election officials are working day in and day out to prevent and then respond to," Chris Crawford, an NTFEC staffer and policy strategist at Protect Democracy, said at the panel. "There are remedies when activities like this arise that election officials can still try to ensure that every person can have their votes submitted and counted."The greater risk is likely postelection, when the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-preparing-legal-challenges-election-decided-court-2024-8">results may be decided in courts</a> instead of on election night. Then, there's the waiting game until Congress counts the electoral votes on January 6, followed by the Presidential Inauguration Ceremony on January 20.Brown said she is "most concerned" about a spike in conspiracy theories and threats to state capitals, vote count locations, and the individuals who oversee them.Anticipating such unrest after the election, businesses in Portland and other cities have begun boarding up their windows."Violence tends to happen to target the process and to contest results," Brown said. "We know the dates that are relevant in the process and are able to anticipate where that might happen, but in a close election, we could see the use of violence or intimidation to attempt to sway how the results are processed."<h2 id="39042411-d542-4c03-b120-8bb15025a411">How great is the risk?</h2>Verisk, a data analytics and risk management company, ranked the United States among the five most high-risk countries for civil unrest, which could also lead to extensive insured losses, in the next year. Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and South Africa rounded out the list, with France, Greece, and Spain the riskiest in Europe.Verisk wrote in an October analysis that election-related violence is rare in the United States and that the January 6 riot in 2021 was "a standout protest event in US history." The company said the peaceful 2022 midterm elections showed that the threat of civil violence remained comparatively low.Emotions run higher during presidential elections, however, and the company's Strikes Riots and Civil Commotion Predictive Model found that the tension and political polarization could reach a boiling point, sparking unrest in urban centers like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston."Not only is the underlying SRCC risk higher than in January 2021, the potential for flashpoints to ignite civil unrest is also greater," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said in a press release.Robert Munks, Verisk's head of research for the Americas, said that risks may also rise following the election during the certification processes."Crucially, the risk of election-related unrest will rise substantially if the outcome of the election is tightly contested," Munks said, "particularly should Trump lose to Harris."

The US is bracing for civil unrest around the election. But just how high is the risk?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>France's gambling regulator said it's looking into Polymarket to determine compliance with domestic laws.</li><li>That comes after one "whale" who bet $30 million on a Trump win was revealed to be a French national.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-polymarket-top-apple-app-store-downloads-election-betting-surge-2024-11">Election betting surged</a> during the 2024 presidential campaign, and the rising popularity of gambling on politics has drawn the attention of at least one government watchdog. Polymarket, the crypto-based betting site which saw four accounts tied to one trader wager $30 million on a Donald Trump victory, is being probed by France's gambling regulator following the US election. The Autorité Nationale des Jeux said it's investigating Polymarket to determine whether it complies with its domestic laws."We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation," a spokesperson for the regulator told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/crypto-bets-on-trump-polymarket-examined-by-french-regulator-anj">Bloomberg</a>. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://en.thebigwhale.io/article-en/exclusive-france-to-ban-polymarket">A report</a> from the crypto news site The Big Whale said the ANJ is preparing to ban the site for French users. The increased scrutiny of Polymarket comes after a trader revealed to be a French national bet $30 million on a win for Trump on the platform. The "whale" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-48-million-profits-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">saw about $48 million</a> in profits on the wagers. While there was speculation that the bets were an influence campaign aimed at supporting Trump, the trader told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/trump-odds-polymarket-election-betting-whale-3d94bed3">The Wall Street Journal</a> that the bets were simply a high-conviction view on the election outcome and that he has no political agenda. France tightly regulates online betting and requires any new gambling markets to receive authorization from the ANJ in advance. Polymarket, which is based in New York, is not available to US users, though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-01/polymarket-rides-election-betting-frenzy-that-defies-a-us-ban">some bettors have used VPNs</a> to work around the restrictions.Polymarket garnered nearly $3.7 billion in wagers on the election before the result was called, Polymarket data shows. The site showed strong odds in favor of a Trump win even as he and Kamala Harris were nearly tied in the polls in the weeks leading up to the vote.

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