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In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Whatever your financial priorities, Business Insider has you covered with a five-part series on the impacts a Trump or a Harris presidency could have on US consumers.You can go deep on how the race for the White House could impact everything from childcare costs to housing to your grocery bill. Just follow the links below, or keep scrolling for a speed-read. Explore BI's election series:• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">What's expected to get more and less expensive under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of housing is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">What a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for your tax bill</a>• <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">How the cost of childcare is expected to change under Trump or Harris</a> <h2 id="0f3ba487-221e-4717-9396-f6e71080aee6"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2><h3 id="c604a2de-d86e-4c5a-8272-80c2c117fa03">Trump</h3>The former president's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.<h3 id="f5661b95-8cae-4195-968e-937088b5c035">Harris</h3>The current vice president's plan to raise the corporate tax rate is expected to hit the beneficiaries of Trump's proposed cut hardest. Her plan to regulate the financial sector is also seen as holding back stocks in the industry. On the positive side, Harris' policies would likely benefit homebuilder and renewable-energy stocks.Harris' plans are also considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, which would allow the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates, boosting bond prices. Her continuity with President Joe Biden's policies is expected to push the dollar lower. Harris is also viewed as crypto-positive.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2><h3 id="4d8effe9-7729-4dbe-b985-0353c12003a7">Trump</h3>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h3 id="c9f25ce7-8011-4641-a4cf-cdefe1de92d9">Harris</h3>While Harris could continue tariffs instated by Biden, her import-tax policy is seen as less inflationary than Trump's. For groceries, the vice president released a plan to tackle high food costs by implementing a federal ban on price gouging during national emergencies.For drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs.<h2 id="ed67f4da-e516-414c-ba19-f692892a0f86"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2><h3 id="c3f2844c-6bb9-473d-91db-9163697e0f29">Trump</h3>Trump has said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The former president also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.Further — during his previous White House tenure — Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although he has not said during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.<h3 id="dd9ed82e-f056-4bf1-a84a-ce1071f56fc5">Harris</h3>Harris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. She also plans to create a $40 billion federal innovation fund that would encourage local governments to build housing.The vice president has also said she would take action against "corporate landlords" and call on Congress to remove tax benefits from investors who acquire 50 or more single-family rental homes.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2><h3 id="206237a6-9eca-4208-bb25-b7f76c2ce845">Trump</h3>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h3 id="77d8ca5f-0db1-4a2a-87e9-9b8e7ae5c85b">Harris</h3>Harris wants to bump up the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%, while also proposing some specific breaks for small businesses.The vice president has also proposed an expanded earned-income tax credit aimed at lower earners, and she wants to restore and expand upon a more generous child tax credit, similar to the one implemented under Biden's pandemic-relief bill in 2021. Harris also shares some middle ground with Trump in terms of wanting to eliminate taxes on tips.For high-income earners, Harris supports two measures that have gained traction during the Biden administration: targeting ultrawealthy investors' capital gains, and imposing a minimum income tax on billionaires.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2><h3 id="ed726a64-f988-4421-a339-c95f21949f4f">Trump</h3>Trump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he hasn't emphasized the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.<h3 id="e35abccd-064c-4d14-947d-2de0192dc4b9">Harris</h3>Harris has promised to cap families' childcare costs at no more than 7% of their incomes, compared to the between 8% and 19.3% spent by the median American family in 2022. The vice president's child tax credit policy would restore the enhanced pandemic-era credit, giving parents up to $3,600 annually per child, with the amount dependent on a child's age and family income.Further, during her run for president in 2020, Harris supported a six-month paid-leave policy for Americans with a new child or a sick relative.

How the election will impact your wallet

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won the US presidency in sweeping fashion.</li><li>His proposed policies, particularly wide-reaching tariffs, are expected to have a major impact on consumers.</li></ul>Now that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has been declared the winner</a> of the 2024 election, American consumers are on the lookout for what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for their finances.From investment portfolios to childcare costs, there could be substantial changes. Central to Trump's overall platform is his plan to enact tariffs on nearly all US imports, which is seen as driving inflation higher.Detailed below are five categories — investments, overall costs, housing, taxes, and childcare — that US consumers can expect to feel impacted by a new Trump regime.<h2 id="d30df8a9-d8f0-4701-8583-83a332628411"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2>Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.These moves played out after Trump secured victory, with the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trade soaring</a>: stocks, Treasury yields, dollar, and bitcoin moved sharply higher.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries — and as much as 60% on Chinese imports — is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h2 id="3a8b1c41-e43c-4dca-b716-d8a1ee2acef2"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2>Trump said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The newly elected president has also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.During his previous White House tenure, Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although did not say during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.Further, if Trump's presidency is inflationary and leads to interest-rate hikes, that would hit housing affordability in the form of higher mortgage rates, which track the Fed's benchmark.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2>Trump has proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he didn't emphasize the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.

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