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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is engaging in a war of attrition in Ukraine.</li><li>Russia has more to gain by prolonging the war, regardless of who wins the US presidential election.</li></ul>Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have starkly different visions of how they'll seek to end one of the gravest security crises in recent decades: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11">the</a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-ukraine-north-korean-troops-preemptively-long-range-strike-restrictions-2024-11"> Ukraine war.</a>Harris has pledged to continue the policy of President Joe Biden, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-soldiers-look-up-abrams-tanks-face-new-threats-ukraine-2024-8">arming Ukraine to defend itself </a>against Russia's two-year invasion.Trump, meanwhile, claims he can bring about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">rapid end to the conflict </a>through negotiations.Whoever is in charge in the White House come January, analysts believe Putin is likely wagering that he has more to gain by prolonging his war of attrition than ending it.<h2 id="3a744150-ba82-4dfb-b30b-8811820f42fe">Pressure mounts on Ukraine</h2>Russia has, in recent months, been ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine, bringing its larger troop numbers and artillery supplies to bear, and making incremental but important gains on the front lines."There are plans to call up more than 160,000 people," the secretary of Ukraine's National Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told parliament last week.North Korea is also believed to have <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">sent thousands of troops</a> to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US."The key advantage gained by Russia [in prolonging the war] is 'events'" Robert Dover, Professor of Intelligence and National Security at the University of Hull in the UK told Business Insider."Ukraine seems to be highly strained by the conflict, and this is - in part - a product of the numbers Russia is able to throw into the conflict," he said.<div type="image" title="Trump n Putin" height="820" width="1024" msid="114953184" hostid="261" sizebytes="31598"></div><h2 id="712a570c-ce6b-49c6-b90b-0c08b2faeb64">Trump's peace plans could embolden Russia</h2>The terms on which Trump would seek to broker peace in Ukraine are unclear, though he's criticized the aid Biden sent to Ukraine, suggesting it could be used as leverage.He has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newrepublic.com/post/185652/trump-sanctions-promise-adviser-charged-russia-media">questioned the effectiveness </a>of the administration's sanctions against Russia.His running mate, JD Vance<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">, recently outlined a </a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/">plan for ending the war in Ukraine</a> under a possible Trump administration, with the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.Both candidates have also questioned US commitments to NATO, the security pact that has been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe.However, in reducing aid to Ukraine and, in effect, handing over swaths of territory to Russia, the US would likely embolden Kremlin aggression, say critics."If Russia knows its territorial revisionism in Ukraine can be permissible by Washington, it is hard to see how Moscow will not see the same elsewhere (or even further in Ukraine, like it did after 2014)," Paul Cormarie, a policy analyst at the RAND Coproration, told BI."Peace in Ukraine in favor of Russia isn't peace, it's a truce."Undermining Western unity by criticizing NATO could have much the same effect.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Joe Biden shake hands during a joint press conference at the Masseria San Domenico on the sidelines of the G7 Summit hosted by Italy." height="683" width="1024" msid="114953181" hostid="261" sizebytes="29734"></div><h2 id="43d5159f-1892-46df-b087-cadcd5c43edf">Harris pledges to continue backing Ukraine – but it likely won't be enough</h2>Harris, by contrast, has pledged to continue US support for Ukraine, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/#:~:text=To%20date%2C%20we%20have%20provided,invasion%20of%20Ukraine%20in%202014.">has cost $64.1 billion</a> in military assistance since the 2022 Russian invasion.US aid has played a key role in helping Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion and inflict vast losses on Russia's forces.But the Biden administration has long placed limits on how Ukraine can use the weapons. Ukraine also says US aid often arrives in a piecemeal way.It's part of a US effort to balance support for Ukraine with not provoking Russia and causing a bigger war.But it means that Putin likely believes he can continue to wage his war of attrition against Ukraine with Harris as president as she likely won't provide enough military aid to defeat his forces.It's a war Putin has staked Russia's economic future on, underlining the importance of victory for the Russian leader.One key tool Biden has used to punish Russia is sanctions designed to damage its economy by limiting its capacity to sell oil and gas internationally.However, Russia has managed to open new export markets in major economies including China and India, making the economic damage of the sanctions has been more limited than some experts projected.Economist <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">Alexander Mertens recently wrote</a> that Russia would likely suffer economic damage regardless of whether it continues the war or not, meaning there's not a major incentive for Putin to stop now.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping enter the hall for Russian-Chinese talks on May 16, 2024 in Beijing, China." height="760" width="1024" msid="114953186" hostid="261" sizebytes="24578"></div><h2 id="41991dd2-f4c0-4eea-aac2-1fdc873df772">Putin plays the long game</h2>Putin's thinking about the global picture, too said Dover.China is observing the Ukraine conflict closely as it weighs whether to launch an invasion of US-ally Taiwan, say analysts, while the Middle East is engulfed in a conflict that could spiral into a much bigger war.Dover said a major conflict in either region could draw in US resources and energy and distract from Ukraine."A regional conflict in the Middle East will help Russia maintain a conflict in Ukraine, with lower risks," he said, cautioning though that the situation was a "fluid assessment conditioned by events."Overall, Putin's mission is to not just seize Ukraine but also work in tandem with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-brink-military-alliance-may-overwhelm-us-putin-xi-2023-12">other authoritarian leaders</a> to damage US global power."In the near-term, Russia and China have embraced a strategy of joint confrontation with the United States and its Allies in Europe and Asia respectively," analyst Jonathan Ward of the Hudson Institute told BI last year.Neither Harris nor Trump are likely to get Putin to change course in his pursuit of victory in Ukraine, and his bigger global ambition."He has taken personal responsibility for achieving that outcome and likely judges it as worth nearly any cost. Trying to coerce him into giving up is a fruitless exercise that just wastes lives and resources," wrote Peter Schroeder, former Principal Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council, for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://archive.is/Y92WB#selection-1479.348-1479.412">Foreign Relations in September.</a>The best course, writes Schroeder, is for the US to play Putin at his own game and outlast him in his war of attrition, waiting for him to die or leave office."Only then will there be a chance for a lasting peace in Ukraine," he said.

Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

How political violence has rocked US elections

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Washington, DC [US], August 1 (ANI): Indian-origin Republican leader <keyword id="19927400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vivek-Ramaswamy" source="keywords">Vivek Ramaswamy</keyword> has said that many <keyword id="20113176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Americans" source="keywords">Indian Americans</keyword> in the US have been offended as <keyword id="20564937" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Vice-President" source="keywords">US Vice President</keyword> <keyword id="20307089" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Kamala-Harris" source="keywords">Kamala Harris</keyword> has "cast aside" her Indian identity. Ramaswamy recalled that <keyword id="20307089" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Kamala-Harris" source="keywords">Kamala Harris</keyword> leaned onto her Indian American identity when she ran for office in California and added that she wears a different identity when it is politically convenient on a national stage. Speaking to Fox News, <keyword id="19927400" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vivek-Ramaswamy" source="keywords">Vivek Ramaswamy</keyword> said, "On a very personal level, my parents were immigrants to this country, legal immigrants from southern India, the very same part of India that her mother also immigrated from. I think it's a hard fact, it's just a fact whether you like it or not, that many <keyword id="20113176" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Americans" source="keywords">Indian Americans</keyword> in the United States are indeed somewhat offended by the way Kamala has suddenly cast aside the Indian American side of her identity." "She leaned into it when she ran for office in California, big Asian American and Indian American population. So, she wore that when it was convenient. She's wearing a different identity now when it's politically convenient on a national stage," he added. Speaking to Fox News, Ramaswamy said that Kamala Harris' leaning into <keyword id="21129061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="identity-politics" source="keywords">identity politics</keyword> opens the door to criticism. He stated that Harris' candidature lacks vision for the US. He said, "I don't think we should be relying on these ethnic identities at all. We're American. And the problem is when you're Kamala Harris and you actually do lean into your <keyword id="21129061" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="identity-politics" source="keywords">identity politics</keyword>, then you open the door to that type of criticism." "But if you ask me, that shouldn't be how this election is decided one way or another. It should be decided on our own identity as Americans and what our vision is for the future of the country. And the number one thing missing in Kamala Harris's candidacy is that she lacks that vision for the country. That's what we've got to focus on," he added. Kamala Harris's <keyword id="22625049" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ethnic-identity" source="keywords">ethnic identity</keyword> is becoming a key issue in the US <keyword id="20099318" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="presidential-election" source="keywords">presidential election</keyword> campaign. It came under further scrutiny after former US President <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> launched a strong personal attack on Vice President and rival in the upcoming presidential polls, Kamala Harris, by claiming that she, after being of "Indian heritage" for years, "turned black" a few years ago, CNN reported. He further claimed that Harris "all of a sudden, made a turn" in her identity and wants to be known as black. Trump made the comments at a gathering of journalists in Chicago when an interviewer asked him why black voters should consider backing a candidate with his history of racist attacks on political rivals. He responded by questioning Harris' heritage. "She was always of Indian heritage, and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn't know she was black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn black, and now she wants to be known as black. So I don't know, is she Indian or is she black?" CNN quoted him as saying. "I respect either one, but she obviously doesn't, because she was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden she made a turn and she went - she became a Black person," he said. "I think somebody should look into that too," he added. Kamala Harris is of <keyword id="19990665" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-origin" source="keywords">Indian origin</keyword>. Her mother is Indian and her father is Jamaican; both immigrated to the United States. She is the first woman of colour and the first Asian American vice president. If Harris wins the upcoming polls, she will become the first woman president of the country. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has hit back at <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> over the latter's remarks against her racial identity and said the American people "deserve better." She asserted that today the country faces a choice between two different visions, and alleged that Trump and his campaign aim to take the country "backward." Harris was speaking at a Houston fundraiser on Wednesday (local time), hours after Trump claimed that Harris, after being of "Indian heritage" for years, "turned black" a few years ago. "In this moment, we face a choice, between two very different visions for our nation. One focused on the future, the other focused on the past. And we in this room, are fighting for the future," she told the donors. "As we work to move our nation forward...there are those who are trying to take us backward. You might have seen their agenda, they call it Project 2025 and it is a 900-page agenda of extremism," Harris added.

Kamala Harris casting aside her Indian identity has offended Indian-Americans, says Vivek Ramaswamy

6 things that would change if the US elected a woman as president

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine launched an offensive into Russia's Kursk region last week.</li><li>The incursion came as a surprise to both Russia and the West.</li></ul>In July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-chief-trump-win-wouldnt-mean-alliance-end-stronger-now-2024-7">NATO</a> officials said Ukraine may have to wait another year before launching a new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-be-able-launch-new-offensive-year-nato-official-2024-7">counteroffensive against Russian forces</a>.That assessment was based on delays in Western support, particularly US Congress's slow approval of military aid, Daniel S. Hamilton, a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University SAIS, told Business Insider.But last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/maps-show-russian-territory-ukraine-said-captured-kursk-advances-2024-8">Ukraine launched a surprise attack into Russia's Kursk region</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-should-experiment-catch-russia-by-surprise-analysis-2024-8">catching Russian forces off guard</a> and forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to divert some troops from Ukraine.After months of relentless Russian assaults on Ukrainian territory, it seemed as if Ukraine would be condemned to a slow and merciless <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-troops-pull-out-key-eastern-town-avdiivka-russia-2024-2">retreat in eastern Ukraine</a>.But the new push into Kursk will serve as a timely reminder to international allies that the war's outcome is not a foregone conclusion.This is particularly important ahead of the upcoming US elections, which Ukraine is acutely aware of, Hamilton said.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-nato-summit-world-leaders-debate-2024-7">Should Trump win</a>, there is a serious threat that he would cut military aid to Ukraine, with the former president saying in June that he would immediately "have that settled."Kyiv is, therefore, likely trying to put itself in the best possible position should it have to enter negotiations with Russia."Politically, the purpose of the operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations," Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/17/ukraine-offensive-russia-political-logic-but-high-risk-strategy">the Guardian</a>."The Ukrainian government wants to make sure that if it has to enter that process, it has things that Russia wants to trade for concessions," he added. "The Ukrainian military, therefore, must take and hold a sizeable chunk of Russian land for the duration of potential negotiations."<div type="image" title="Ukrainian military vehicle" height="683" width="1024" msid="112611185" hostid="261" sizebytes="106116"></div>Hamilton said that Ukraine's new strategy demonstrates its ability to conduct complex operations involving a number of military assets, bolstering its standing on the battlefield by showing that it can actively shape the conflict.How long it can continue such an operation remains to be seen, however.The ability to maintain momentum depends on the continued replenishment of its forces, something that remains uncertain, Hamilton added.Nevertheless, the incursion may have kickstarted a shift in Western policy.While the West has been reluctant to allow Ukraine to strike Russia, a number of members have signaled their support for Ukraine's moves in Kursk — including Germany, which has often been reluctant to risk provoking Putin."Ukraine has the right to self defense enshrined in international law," Germany's foreign ministry said in a statement to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/berlin-allies-support-ukraines-surprise-offensive-at-least-so-far-kursk-zelenskyy-putin/">Politico</a> earlier this month. "This is not limited to its own territory."The Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment of the conflict on Saturday that it was "too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia."But it added that due to the scale of the conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war, the advance in Kursk and Russia's operations in eastern Ukraine were likely not "decisive military operations" that would win the war.

Ukraine's Kursk counteroffensive defied NATO predictions and shows Kyiv has its eye on the US election, experts say

<ul><li>Five states voted on some form of change to the minimum wage in Tuesday's US elections.</li><li>Missouri approved a raise, while Massachusetts and Arizona rejected changing how tipped workers are paid.</li><li>Results in Alaska and California were unclear early Wednesday.</li></ul>While economic issues were a major focus of this year's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11" target="_blank">US presidential election</a>, several states put pay directly on the ballot, and minimum-wage workers in at least one state are now set to get a raise after voting concluded Tuesday. Missouri, Massachusetts, California, and Alaska all had some form of referendum on their ballots on whether to hike the minimum wage paid by employers. In Massachusetts, voters were asked whether to gradually increase the share of tipped workers' pay that employers must provide, while voters in the three other states were presented with proposals for straightforward minimum-wage increases. In Arizona, voters weighed in on whether to decrease the tipped minimum wage — provided employers could show workers' wages would stay $2 above the state minimum when accounting for tips. Shortly after polls closed in Missouri, it was clear that the referendum there had passed. Voters in Massachusetts and Arizona rejected their proposals, and California and Alaska were still awaiting their results as of early Wednesday. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Missouri</h2>In Missouri, voters opted to raise the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. Per The New York Times, roughly 58% of Missouri voters had supported the measure as of early Wednesday, with some votes still uncounted. The measure, <a href="https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures#:~:text=Official%20Ballot%20Title%0AProposition,Proposed%20by%20Initiative%20Petition" target="_blank">Proposition A</a>, is set to first raise the minimum wage to $13.75 an hour from $12.30 on January 1 and then increase it again to $15 an hour on January 1, 2026. Starting in 2027, the wage is set to be pegged to inflation. The measure also mandates that employers give their workers an hour of paid leave for every 30 hours they work. Missouri separately voted in favor of former President Donald Trump, who said he'd "consider" a minimum-wage hike if it proved beneficial for small businesses. His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, had pledged support for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour from $7.25. A group of Missouri business owners in favor of the measure praised Proposition A's passage on Tuesday evening. "Proposition A will strengthen Missouri's workforce and businesses," David Burmeister, the owner of Midwest Pasta Co. in St. Louis, said in a press release. "Raising the minimum wage will increase people's ability to shop at our business and local businesses across Missouri. We've seen that paying better wages is better business. Employees are happier at work and do a better job." <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Massachusetts</h2>In <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/publications/information-for-voters-24/quest_5.htm" target="_blank">Massachusetts</a>, employers won't be required to gradually raise tipped workers' base pay to match the state's minimum wage. The measure failed, with the Times reporting at the time of publication that 64% of voters had rejected it out of the votes counted so far. The measure, which would have begun taking shape on January 1, wouldn't have actually raised the legal minimum wage for tipped workers but instead would have raised the share of that minimum wage that employers were required to provide. Currently, Massachusetts employers are required to pay tipped workers a base pay of $6.75 an hour and then make up the difference if those workers' total pay counting tips is less than $15 an hour. The failed measure would have ultimately required employers to directly pay tipped workers the state's full minimum wage by 2029. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Arizona</h2>In Arizona, voters rejected a measure that would have let employers reduce their base pay for tipped workers. <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/alispdfs/Council/2024BallotMeasures/adopted%20analysis%20Proposition%20138%20SCR1040%20-%202024.pdf" target="_blank">Proposition 138</a> proposed allowing employers to pay tipped workers up to 25% less than the state's minimum wage, with the corollary that employers would need to establish their workers were still making the minimum wage plus an additional $2 an hour when accounting for tips. The Times reported that out of the votes counted so far, nearly 76% of voters had rejected the measure. That means that employers in Arizona can continue to pay their tipped workers $3 less than the current hourly minimum wage as long as workers are still making at least the minimum wage when accounting for tips. Correction: November 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story included a sentence that incorrectly described the result of the ballot measure in Massachusetts. The system in which tipped workers are required to be paid at least $15 an hour through a combination of tips and a $6.75 hourly wage is the current system in Massachusetts, not a proposal on the ballot measure that voters rejected. The story was also updated to clarify the ballot results. The percentages attributed to The New York Times reflected the latest tally as votes were being counted, not New York Times projections for the final result. The specific figure of 76% in Arizona referred to the share of voters at the time who had rejected the ballot measure there, not the margin by which voters rejected the measure.

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Putin is in no hurry to end the Ukraine war, no matter who wins the US election

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How political violence has rocked US elections

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How long will it take to call the 2024 US election?

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Kamala Harris casting aside her Indian identity has offended Indian-Americans, says Vivek Ramaswamy

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Ukraine's Kursk counteroffensive defied NATO predictions and shows Kyiv has its eye on the US election, experts say

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Workers in Missouri can look forward to raises after minimum-wage boosts passed

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