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In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

Mumbai: The rupee fell sharply by 15 paise against the US dollar to 83.44 in early trade on Wednesday amid muted trends in the domestic equity markets. However, a decline in the dollar index and a marginal fall in the Brent crude index prevented further losses in the domestic unit, according to experts. At the interbank foreign exchange, the local unit opened at 84.38 -- down 9 paise from its previous close -- and then slid further to 84.44, registering a decline of 15 paise from its previous close. On Tuesday, the rupee pared its intra-day losses to settle flat at 84.29 against the US dollar. "The <keyword id="24182640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banking-liquidity" source="keywords">Indian banking liquidity</keyword> fell into deficit as industry players paid Rs 1.6-1.8 lakh crore as GST payment. This was after two months that liquidity has fallen into a deficit as the RBI also intervened into forex markets to defend the rupee weighing on liquidity conditions," Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "The rupee may be in the broad range of 84.00 to 84.50 in the near term as markets await a slew of data from the US this evening," Bhansali added. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.15 per cent to 106.84. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was marginally down 0.10 per cent to USD 72.74 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex was trading 46.69 points lower, or 0.06 per cent, at 79,957.57 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Tuesday, purchasing shares worth Rs 1,157.70 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls 15 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> recovered from its all-time low level and witnessed a range-bound trade against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early hours on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Fed meeting outcome later this week. Forex traders said RBI interventions will keep the <keyword id="23844589" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="USD/INR-pair" source="keywords">USD/INR pair</keyword> between 83.80 and 84.35. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve monetary policy and officials' comments will be in focus to derive further momentum. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.26 against the greenback, registering a rise of 5 paise over its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated 22 paise to close at an all-time low of 84.31 against the US dollar. "The <keyword id="20045514" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-rupee" source="keywords">Indian rupee</keyword> fell to its lowest (level) on Wednesday and is expected to continue with its fall as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) allows a weaker rupee with FPIs (<keyword id="20015748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-investors" source="keywords">foreign portfolio investors</keyword>) continuing their selling mode in equities," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. RBI protected the rupee for some time but left the protection as pressure on buying dollars was immense after a rise in the dollar index and an increase in US yields, Bhansali added. Forex traders said the rupee was trading in a narrow range as persistent foreign fund outflows, a muted trend in domestic equities and the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, dented investor sentiments. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.10 per cent lower at 104.98. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.79 per cent to USD 75.51 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 429.83 points, or 0.53 per cent, to 79,948.30 points. The Nifty fell 143.25 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 24,340.80 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 4,445.59 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/skoda-kylaq-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-89-lakh/articleshow/115013668.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/skoda-kylaq-suv-launched-in-india-starting-at-7-89-lakh/articleshow/115013668.cms" target="_blank">Skoda Kylaq SUV launched in India starting at ₹7.89 lakh</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/swiggy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115004939.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/swiggy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115004939.cms" target="_blank">Swiggy IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/realme-gt-7-pro-with-snapdragon-8-elite-6500mah-battery-to-launch-in-india-on-november-26/articleshow/114945858.cms" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-ipo-indias-biggest-telco-to-go-public-in-2025-retail-ipo-further-away/articleshow/114944496.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-ipo-indias-biggest-telco-to-go-public-in-2025-retail-ipo-further-away/articleshow/114944496.cms" target="_blank">Reliance Jio IPO – India’s biggest telco to go public in 2025, retail IPO further away</a>

Rupee rises 5 paise to 84.26 against US dollar in early trade

Rupee appreciated 7 paise to 84.22 against the US dollar in morning trade on Tuesday, on a sharp rebound in domestic equities amid improved investor risk appetite. Forex traders said the <keyword id="21663515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MSCI-equity-index" source="keywords">MSCI equity index</keyword> rebalancing significantly boosted sentiment for Indian equity markets as <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword> broke a 40-session streak of net selling by purchasing Rs 9,947 crores on Monday, lending robust support to the rupee. Moreover, the win by the incumbent government in Maharashtra, further fueled investor confidence in economic stability, sparking a rally in equity markets. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.27 and moved in a tight range and touched an early high of 84.22 against the greenback, registering a gain of 7 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee appreciated 12 paise to close at 84.29 against US dollar. "While Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies loom large, the rupee's outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s projection of a GDP growth rebound to 7.6 per cent in Q3 has infused fresh confidence in India's economic trajectory. Additionally, a surge in capital inflows is likely to provide robust support," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Pabari further said that the RBI's vigilant stance will be critical in managing volatility, with interventions likely at key levels to maintain stability. "Given the factors, the USDINR pair appears to face resistance around the 84.50 level, with expectations of trading within a range of 83.80 to 84.50, leaning toward a downside bias," he said. On the global front, US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's fiscal deficit reduction agenda capped US Treasury yields, Pabari said. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.28 per cent at 107.11. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.33 per cent to USD 73.25 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share equity benchmark Sensex jumped 167.76 points or 0.21 per cent to 80,277.61 points in early trade, while Nifty jumped 55.80 points or 0.23 per cent to 24,277.70 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, purchasing shares worth Rs 9,947.55 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/oneplus-open-oxygenos-15-update-now-rolling-out-with-flux-themes-improved-ai-features-and-more/articleshow/115657313.cms" target="_blank">OnePlus Open OxygenOS 15 update now rolling out with Flux Themes, improved AI features and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/microsofts-ai-powered-recall-feature-is-now-rolling-out-to-copilot-pcs/articleshow/115654136.cms" target="_blank">Microsoft’s AI-powered Recall feature is now rolling out to Copilot+ PCs</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-airtel-and-vi-lost-nearly-11-million-subscribers-in-september-2024/articleshow/115565541.cms" target="_blank">Jio, Airtel and Vi lost nearly 11 million subscribers in September 2024</a>

Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), <keyword id="20690607" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="V-Anantha-Nageswaran" source="keywords">V Anantha Nageswaran</keyword>, remains optimistic about the nation’s economic prospects despite a slower-than-expected <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> in the second quarter of FY2024-25. Speaking at the Bharat @100 Summit hosted by Assocham, he said that the fundamental health of the economy remains robust, according to a report by aNI. Nageswaran highlighted several indicators demonstrating the economy’s resilience. “If you run through the checklist for the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword>, the health is pretty robust,” he noted, pointing to controlled levels of external debt as a share of GDP, declining non-performing assets in the banking system, and stable inflation trends. Although certain food items have caused inflationary spikes, their impact is limited within the overall consumer price index basket, he explained. The CEA praised the shift in fiscal expenditure priorities over the past seven years, with greater focus on capital investments rather than revenue spending. This reallocation, he suggested, has bolstered long-term economic stability and growth potential. India’s GDP growth for the July-September quarter was 5.4%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7%. While this has sparked concerns among economists, Nageswaran urged against overreacting. Erratic monsoons and excessive rainfall disrupted economic activity in Q2, he explained, while global uncertainties and supply chain pressures further weighed on growth. Despite these challenges, he maintained confidence in the broader growth narrative, citing improvements in key economic metrics. For instance, India’s gross capital formation has risen from 27.3% of GDP in the second decade of the 2000s to 30.8% today. Private consumption remains steady, and exports—spanning both services and manufacturing—continue to perform well even amid challenging global conditions. Nageswaran also underscored India’s growing competitiveness in international trade. He noted that the nation’s total <keyword id="24325087" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="exports-as-a-percentage-of-GDP" source="keywords">exports as a percentage of GDP</keyword> now surpass China’s, showcasing its resilience and adaptability in a shifting global trade environment. However, he cautioned against reading too much into quarterly fluctuations, highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments such as trade restrictions from the US on critical minerals and rare earths, as well as policy shifts in China. These external factors, he suggested, are likely to persist and may continue influencing short-term economic trends. (with ANI inputs)

Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> recovered from its <keyword id="22025417" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="all-time-low" source="keywords">all-time low</keyword> level and opened 25 paise higher at 83.84 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="US dollar" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="US dollar">US dollar</keyword> in morning trade on Tuesday, mirroring the rebound in the domestic equity market, even as aggressive dollar bids from foreign banks exerted pressure on the local unit. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said risk aversion in the <keyword id="19908188" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-markets" source="keywords">global markets</keyword>, escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and outflows by foreign investors further dented investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.92 and then touched an early high of 83.84, registering a 25 paise gain from its all-time closing low of 84.09 against the American currency. On Monday, the rupee slumped 37 paise to settle at an all-time low of 84.09 against the US dollar. "The rupee is being sold off in good times and bad times indicating the demand for US dollar as foreign portfolio investors exit the Indian equity market on high valuation concerns," said Anil Kumar Bhansali Head of Treasury and Executive Director Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, gained 0.16 per cent to 102.85 points. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at USD 77.15 per barrel in futures trade, on fears of spreading Middle East conflict that could hit supplies outweighing fears of a possible US recession that could hurt demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. Moreover, Israel and US are bracing for a significant escalation after Iran and Hamas pledged to retaliate against Israel for killings last week of a Hamas Leader, traders said. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded 903.63 points, or 1.15 per cent, to 79,663.03 points, while the Nifty increased by 270.50 points, or 1.12 per cent, to 24,326.10 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 10,073.75 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee recovers from all-time low level, opens 25 paise higher at 83.84 against US dollar

Mumbai: The <keyword id="20045514" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-rupee" source="keywords">Indian rupee</keyword> pared its initial gains and turned flat at 83.87 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Tuesday, as positive domestic equity markets and a weak American currency was negated by the outflow of foreign capital. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said softening <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword> supported the local unit and prevented its fall. At the interbank foreign exchange, the <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> opened at 83.86 against the greenback, inched up to 83.84 before trading again at its previous session's closing level of 83.87 against the dollar. On Monday, the rupee settled 8 paise higher at 83.87 against the American currency. Over the past holiday-shortened week, the rupee showed minimal fluctuation and narrowly steered clear of the critical of 84-mark. Investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of PMI data from the US and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium for any cues on rate cuts by the central bank. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.10 per cent to 101.82. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.68 per cent to USD 77.13 per barrel. On the domestic equity market front, <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Sensex" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Sensex">Sensex</keyword> advanced 188.93 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 80,613.61 points. The <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Nifty" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Nifty">Nifty</keyword> rose 60.15 points, or 0.24 per cent, to 24,632.80 points. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, offloading shares worth Rs 2,667.46 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee turns flat at 83.87 against US dollar in early trade

The <keyword id="91748" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="indian-rupee" source="Orion">Indian rupee</keyword> has seen successive lows in the recent days. And it fell by another 8 paise on Monday, reaching to an all-time low of 83.80 against <keyword id="6368584" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="Orion">US dollar</keyword> in early trade. The rupee opened at 83.78 before slipping to 83.80 against the dollar. On Friday, the rupee had settled 1 paisa higher at 83.72 in a range-bound session. Last Wednesday, the rupee had plummeted to 83.7425 against the dollar. A Reuters report at the time quoted traders attributing this decline to importers' month-end demand for the dollar. Earlier today, a Bloomberg report had said that any signs of a dovish stance in the central bank’s upcoming policy on August 8 could potentially drive the rupee even lower. According to a PTI report, forex traders noted that the sharp decline in the rupee was driven by a significant downturn in Indian equity markets and substantial foreign fund outflows. The report also added that last week, global stock markets dropped sharply after a disappointing US jobs report raised worries about a possible recession, making investors seek safer options. In addition, the upcoming US elections and rising tensions in the Middle East, especially after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, are making investors extra cautious. Talking about the recession in the US and how it is worrying investors, Mumbai-based Ajay Kedia of financial services firm Kedia Advisory said as per a report in ANI, "U.S. recession concerns led to worries about foreign outflows from India and emerging markets. "The fall is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. recession, which has spurred worries about foreign outflows from India and other emerging markets. The selloff in U.S. and Asian equities, following a disappointing U.S. jobs report, has intensified these concerns, causing significant market jitters," Kedia added as per the report. On the other hand, despite the weakening of the US dollar and an 11 percent correction in oil prices, the rupee has remained below the 83.70 level. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six currencies, was down 0.24% at 102.95. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, rose 0.30% to USD 77.04 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 1533.11 points, or 1.89%, lower at 79,448.84 points. The broader NSE Nifty dropped 463.50 points, or 1.88%, to 24,254.20 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Friday, offloading shares worth Rs 3,310.00 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee falls to record low of 83.80 against US dollar, drops 8 paise

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> traded flat at 83.53 against the US currency in early trade on Friday amid firm <keyword id="20024983" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crude-oil-prices" source="keywords">crude oil prices</keyword> and gains in domestic stocks. At the interbank <keyword id="21316589" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-exchange-market" source="keywords">foreign exchange market</keyword>, the rupee opened flat at 83.53 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword>. The local unit moved in a tight range of 83.50 to 83.54 in morning deals. The rupee was trading flat at 83.53 against the US dollar at 0935 hrs. Forex dealers said the impact of firm crude oil prices was offset by overnight losses in the US dollar index and early gains in the domestic equity markets. The US dollar index eased on Thursday after softer US inflation data raised hopes of rate cut by the US Fed by September. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.05 per cent lower at 104.49. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, were trading 0.20 per cent higher at USD 85.60 per barrel. Domestic equity markets were trading higher in early session on Friday. Benchmark Sensex climbed 226.11 points to 80,123.45 while broader Nifty was up 82.1 points to 24,398.05. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Thursday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,137.01 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee trades flat at 83.53 against US dollar in early trade

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> rose 2 paise to 83.71 against the US currency in early trade on Wednesday following a marginal dip in the dollar in overseas markets. At the interbank currency exchange, the domestic currency opened at 83.72, 1 paisa higher than the previous day's close. The domestic unit moved in the tight range of 83.70-83.72 in early trade. <keyword id="2155647" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex-traders" source="Orion">Forex traders</keyword> said the rise in Brent crude oil prices offset the rupee's gains following the decline in dollar rates overseas. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, declined 0.19 per cent to 104.36. Brent crude futures -- the global oil benchmark -- rose 1.49 per cent to USD 79.80 per barrel. All eyes will be on the US Fed rate announcement later in the day. Expectations are ripe that the Federal Reserve might signal a rate cut as early as September. In the domestic <keyword id="19911354" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market" source="keywords">equity market</keyword>, the 30-share BSE Sensex showed volatility, rising over 200 points in early trade to reach a record high before trading at 81,517.75, up 62.35 points, at 9.35 am. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital markets on Tuesday, offloaded shares worth Rs 5,598.64 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee rises 2 paise to 83.71 against US dollar in early trade, following a marginal dip in the dollar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are bracing for the US presidential election amid a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump.</li><li>The US dollar is in firm focus as traders tread cautiously ahead of the polls.</li></ul>Markets are holding their breath at the start of a big week.The US presidential election on Tuesday is the biggest event this week, and traders are firmly focused on a jittery dollar on Monday amid a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.On Monday, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — was 0.5% lower at 3:27 a.m. ET.Meanwhile, the US dollar was 0.6% lower against the Japanese yen and the euro was 0.5% higher than the dollar.The dollar lost ground after weekend polls showed the odds of a Republican sweep falling, and the likelihood of a Democratic win with a split Congress increasing, Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/aud-usd-looks-to-us-election-for-relief-241104">trading platform IG,</a> wrote on Monday.Polls that show Trump's odds falling would put pressure on the dollar. This is because Trump, the Republican candidate, has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">wide-sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates — which would support the greenback."This shift has weighed on the US dollar, as traders unwind some of the 'USD <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">Trump Trade</a>' premium," wrote Sycamore, referring to the weekend poll.Cash trade in US Treasuries trade was closed in Asian trading hours as markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.<h2 id="43e035ed-ee9e-417b-ab2c-dcd98ece54aa">Fed meeting and China stimulus</h2>The US elections aren't all that's influencing the markets this week.The US Federal Reserve is also set to hold its interest rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.Regardless of who wins the election, the Fed is expected to cut key rates by 25 basis points, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25-basis-points-next-two-meetings-2024-10-29/">Reuters poll</a> of 111 economists.Factors driving the potential cut include Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy added just <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">12,000 jobs in October</a> — far lower than the forecast of 106,000 jobs. Meanwhile, inflation has cooled over the last few months."The Fed is more relaxed about inflation and is putting more focus on the jobs market as it attempts to secure a soft landing for the economy," analysts at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/fed-to-cut-25bp-irrespective-of-election-outcome/">ING wrote in a note on Friday.</a>Since Joe Biden will still be president until January 20, macro newsflow would still drive the Fed's interest rate decisions until December, the ING analysts added.On the other side of the world, China is expected to greenlight a fresh round of stimulus as its Standing Committee of National People's Congress — its top legislative body — meets from Monday through Friday.The world's second-largest economy has been mired in a prolonged economic downturn amid an epic property crisis. In late September, it announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">aggressive stimulus</a> to boost its economy, but analysts say much more is needed to drive flagging consumption.This week, China's legislative body would be considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported on Tuesday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.The amount could be increased if Trump wins the presidential race, underscoring the outsized influence of the US election on the rest of the world."US election outcomes and the resulting tariff risks are consequential to China equity via the intertwined economic, currency, policy, earnings, and valuation channels," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Monday.

The US dollar is jittery ahead of a big week, and there's more to it than the presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. "President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation."If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows."More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said."Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result.

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

<keyword id="6355302" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rupee" source="Orion">Rupee</keyword> opened on a muted note and fell to an all-time low of 83.72 against the US dollar on Thursday, dragged down by the strength of the American currency in the overseas market and significant foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said the fall in the domestic unit came on the heels of a significant downturn in the Indian equity markets, sparked by the government's decision to hike the <keyword id="22422932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tax-rate" source="keywords">tax rate</keyword> on <keyword id="20619608" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-gains" source="keywords">capital gains</keyword>. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit was trading in a narrow range. It opened at an all-time low of 83.72 against the American currency, registering a fall of 1 paisa from its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated 2 paise to hit its all-time closing low of 83.71 against the US dollar. The government's decision to hike the tax rate on capital gains dampened market sentiment, exerting immense pressure on the rupee and the equity market. "Post-budget day, the benchmark Indian equity indices, BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, dipped by approximately 0.3 per cent and 0.2 per cent, respectively, as foreign institutional investors withdrew a staggering USD 350 million from Indian stocks. "Adding to the turmoil, persistent high demand for dollars, driven by defence and oil payments, compounded the currency's woes," CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari said. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 104.21, lower by 0.17 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.75 per cent to USD 81.10 per barrel. In the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 425.14 points, or 0.53 per cent lower at 79,723.74 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 120.65 points, or 0.49 per cent, to 24,292.85 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 5,130.90 crore, according to exchange data.

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Rupee rises 7 paise to 84.22 against US dollar in early trade

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Indian economy is resilient despite Q2 challenges, says CEA Nageswaran

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Rupee recovers from all-time low level, opens 25 paise higher at 83.84 against US dollar

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Rupee turns flat at 83.87 against US dollar in early trade

PTI

Rupee falls to record low of 83.80 against US dollar, drops 8 paise

BI India Bureau

Rupee trades flat at 83.53 against US dollar in early trade

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Rupee rises 2 paise to 83.71 against US dollar in early trade, following a marginal dip in the dollar

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The US dollar is jittery ahead of a big week, and there's more to it than the presidential election

Huileng Tan

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

Jennifer Sor

Rupee slips to all-time low of 83.72 against US dollar; Fall sparked by tax rate hike on capital gains, per traders

PTI

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