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<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! A 72-year-old VC investor still runs four marathons a year. He spoke to BI about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/training-tips-for-older-runners-from-72-year-old-marathoner-2024-10">how he fits the training into his busy schedule</a> as he tries to run 100 marathons before he turns 100.In today's big story, a final look at the impact a Harris or Trump presidency <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">will have on your finances</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: A survey exclusively shared with BI shows how a slice of Wall Street <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">thinks the election will go</a>.</li><li>Tech: Nvidia is replacing Intel in the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-struggles-qualcomm-deal-chip-industry-turmoil-2024-9">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>.</li><li>Business: We spoke to more than 750 people about <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cant-find-job-unemployment-applications-retirement-mba-age-competition-openings-2024-11">their struggles finding a job</a>.</li></ul>But first, let's go over it one more time.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">The White House and your wallet</h2><div type="image" title="Trump and Harris." height="1743" width="2323" msid="114952573" hostid="261" sizebytes="392138"></div>On the eve of election day, we're offering a final breakdown of how both candidates might affect your wallet.Business Insider ran a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">five-part refresher series</a> last week examining how the policies proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump impact US consumers.With little middle ground between the two candidates, there are a wide range of implications. Let's get into it:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investing</a>: The corporate tax rate is the major difference between the two sides that'll likely have the biggest impact on markets. Trump's plan to reduce the rate, which stands at 21%, is viewed by most as beneficial for corporate earnings. Harris wants to raise the corporate tax rate, which would likely have the opposite effect.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Cost of things</a>: Both candidates are looking to keep leveraging tariffs, but Trump's policy is much more aggressive. His broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most imported goods will ultimately make those products more expensive, according to most economists. When it comes to grocery prices, Trump previously said he'd restrict food imports to boost local farmers. Harris wants a federal ban on price gouging, but that'd only be applicable during national emergencies.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">Housing</a>: Harris wants to boost construction, with a goal of adding 3 million new housing units during her first term. The former president views his immigration plan — deporting millions of people from the country — as a way to address the housing shortage. Banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally is another way to lower demand, according to Trump.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a>: Trump is expected to expand on the tax cuts he established in 2017. The highest earners in the country, those in the top 0.1%, would see a tax reduction of nearly $280,000 whereas middle-income Americans would get a $1,000 break on their taxes, according to one analysis. Harris' proposals will favor lower-income earners, although she's promised to not raise taxes for anyone making below $400,000. She does support a minimum income tax for billionaires.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a>: Both candidates have discussed increasing the amount of the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. Harris has also zeroed in on childcare costs, promising to cap those expenses at no more than 7% of families' income. Neither candidate has suggested funding childcare facilities or boosting hiring, which is a key issue for the industry.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Harris leads Trump by three points in a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">new poll in GOP-leaning Iowa</a>.</li><li>TGI Friday's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tgi-fridays-files-for-bankruptcy-2024-11">filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy</a>.</li><li>Scoop: Gwyneth Paltrow's lifestyle brand Goop <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gwyneth-paltrow-goop-lays-off-employees-pivot-beauty-food-fashion-2024-11">conducted another round of layoffs</a>.</li><li>In an all-hands, Intel CEO addresses employee concerns about <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">the US election and CHIPS Act funding</a>.</li><li>WATCH: How Elon Musk is reshaping American politics. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-reshaping-american-politics-ahead-of-2024-elections-2024-11">A conversation with Politico and BI</a>.</li><li>How a free meal cost an investor <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-a-free-meal-cost-an-investor-his-retirement-savings-2024-10">his retirement savings</a>.</li><li>The China threat and the EV slowdown — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/auto-industry-faces-trouble-in-china-ev-slowdown-2024-11">2 takeaways from a busy few weeks in auto news</a>.</li><li>Record producer Quincy Jones has <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quincy-jones-dead-obituary-2024-11">died at 91 in his home in Bel Air</a>.</li><li>The US dollar is jittery, and it's not <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-dollar-presidential-election-fed-interest-rates-china-npc-stimulus-2024-11">only because of the presidential election</a>.</li><li>The Navy's top ballistic missile interceptor comes with a heavy price tag, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-top-interceptor-missile-heavy-price-tag-low-procurement-2024-10">but the US can't afford to go to war without it</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Wall Street with American flags" height="1333" width="2000" msid="114952577" hostid="261" sizebytes="241826"></div><ol><li>These investors give the slight edge to Trump. A survey of some of SumZero's investor community, which includes small hedge funds and family offices, found 53% believe <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Trump will win the election</a>. That follows other signals the finance world is sending that it views Trump as the favorite, including European stocks trading at a discount due to concerns over tariffs.</li><li>Interest rate cuts are back. The Fed will announce Thursday what it plans to do with rates, with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">most traders expecting a 25-basis-point cut</a>. After that, there's one more chance for the Fed to cut rates in December, although JPMorgan's strategy chief said a Trump win <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-fed-pause-rate-cuts-easing-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-11">could give the central bank pause</a>.</li><li>Wall Street analysts are scratching their heads over Comcast's potential reorg. The company's president suggested it might spin out CNBC and MSNBC into a new firm while retaining NBC and adding a partner to its steamer. On paper the move makes sense, but analysts question how the cable networks could survive by themselves and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/comcast-cable-network-spinoff-peacock-partnership-deal-wall-street-analysis-2024-11">who would be willing to team up with Peacock</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Jensen Huang" height="3526" width="5289" msid="114952576" hostid="261" sizebytes="532426"></div><ol><li>A monumental swap. S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which looks to project the most relevant picture of the US economy. It shows <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-struggles-qualcomm-deal-chip-industry-turmoil-2024-9">how far Intel has fallen from relevancy</a>, and raises questions about the future role it'll play in computing and AI. BI's Emma Cosgrove explains <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-nvidia-replacing-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-explained-2024-11">why it's such a big deal</a>.</li><li>Everything we know about the Apple Intelligence rollout. Some of Apple's long-awaited AI features rolled out last week, including a new Siri interface and enhanced Messages. However, other features unveiled at WWDC in June won't be available until 2025. We've got <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-intelligence-features-rollout-timeline-iphone-16-2024-9">an estimated timeline of the rest of the releases</a>, based on what Apple experts and the company have said since WWDC.</li><li>Some Democratic political advertisers are still betting on X. Though Musk's ownership has shifted the platform's political stance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-political-advertisers-using-elon-musk-x-twitter-2024-11">a small number of Democratic ad campaigns still see opportunity</a>. Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Texas Rep. Colin Allred are among the Democrats still hanging on tight to X.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Fish with price tags." height="3000" width="4000" msid="114952579" hostid="261" sizebytes="975922"></div><ol><li>Endless options are ruining e-commerce. The allure of online shopping was the ability to compare a variety of options from the comfort of your home. But what happens when there are literally tens of thousands of products to choose from? Information overload, choice paralysis, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/online-shopping-ecommerce-comparison-burnout-too-many-choices-overwhelming-decision-2024-11">extremely frustrated shoppers</a>.</li><li>The great American shoplifting spree. Regular Americans are shoplifting everything from tape measures to blocks of cheese, and they don't feel particularly bad about it. Some of these opportunists view it as a way of fighting back against <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/middle-class-shoplifting-retail-theft-crime-stealing-stores-2024-11">goods that are unjustly expensive</a>.</li><li>The biggest woes of finding work. BI spoke to over 750 people who have struggled to find a job, from older workers just shy of retirement to eager recent graduates. They shared what they're most frustrated with, including fake job postings, competition from AI, and the feeling of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cant-find-job-unemployment-applications-retirement-mba-age-competition-openings-2024-11">being shut out from some careers</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Fox Corp, Goodyear, Marriott, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>Boeing's unionized workers vote on a new pay offer.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Here's a final breakdown of how both presidential candidates might affect your finances 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is just two days away.</li><li>Harris and Trump are campaigning in swing states as they make their final appeals to voters.</li></ul>With Election Day on Tuesday, the end is in sight for what has been a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">contentious US presidential race</a> between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.More than 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots, a stunning figure that demonstrates the high interest and high stakes in a contest that has had more twists and turns than any presidential contest in recent memory.Throughout the campaign, Trump has benefited from unease over the economy, a consistently top issue for voters. When President Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, it was his biggest vulnerability, despite low unemployment and consistent job gains after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.Inflation has been driving much of the voter anxiety about the economy. Although wages have increased in recent years, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/briefing/us-job-market-biden-ev-push.html">higher prices</a> have affected the finances of millions.After Biden stepped aside as the nominee in July and Harris became the Democratic Party standard bearer, she immediately focused on the issue, vowing to attack price gouging and unveiling a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">broad economic plan</a> of her own.It wasn't long before Harris began to narrow the gap between the Democrats and the GOP in the presidential race.Now, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-15-days-swing-states-polling-2024-10">in its final days</a>, the race remains tight, with both candidates virtually tied in the swing states as they make their last appeals to voters.<h2 id="50876ac4-ebc3-448d-bba2-b26367be04b6">The battleground states remain close</h2>Harris' clearest path to reach 270 electoral votes — and an overall victory — is to sweep every Democratic stronghold and blue-leaning state while also winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.<div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris." height="5504" width="8256" msid="114911575" hostid="261" sizebytes="1811384"></div>Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin form a critical core of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-economic-message-unions-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin-2024-10">the "blue wall" of states</a> that backed Democratic presidential nominees from 1992 until 2012, but have more recently been less reliable for Democrats.The three states — which both Harris and Trump have crisscrossed in their hunt for votes — contain urban, suburban, and rural areas that will be key for each candidate in the race.(Pennsylvania offers 19 electoral votes, while Michigan has 15, and Wisconsin has 10. Nebraska's 2nd offers one vote, which could be decisive for Harris.)In 2016, Trump breached the blue wall, winning all three states by making inroads with working-class voters that had previously supported former President Barack Obama, including a critical bloc of independents and union workers.But in 2020, Biden <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-sweeps-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-battleground-states-election-2020-11">flipped the blue wall states</a> back into the Democratic column, but only narrowly. That year, Biden also won Nebraska's Omaha-anchored 2nd District, and recent polling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/">suggests</a> that Harris may, in fact, also hold an advantage there.Harris has directed much of her energy on these states, where she'll need to perform well to counter Trump's stronger standing in the Sun Belt.<h2 id="334dda81-d219-41e5-bd70-2bd8ffaf260b">The Sun Belt states</h2>Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sun-belt-gains-trump-swing-states-polls-2024-8">appeared favored</a> to win Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina when he was running against Biden. But Harris' candidacy activated young and minority voters who were unenthusiastic about Biden, allowing her to broaden the Democratic map.As a result, the Sun Belt states remain competitive. Republicans <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024">appear to have built an early-vote advantage</a> in Nevada. However, Election Day turnout and the direction of the remaining mail-in ballots remain anyone's guess.Voters in the Sun Belt have been focused on the economy and immigration, two issues that benefit Trump. But Harris has managed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/us/elections/trump-harris-economy-poll.html">cut into Trump's edge</a> on economic issues while also polling strongly on issues like abortion, democracy, and supporting the middle class.<h2 id="f8034860-3827-40ca-abe2-4b0ee46c261d">We could see a historic gender gap</h2>Shortly before Biden left the race, he held a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html">small advantage</a> with women, while Trump fared much better with male voters.However, with Harris as the Democratic nominee — and the potential for the United States to elect its first-ever female president — the country will likely see a historically large gender gap once all the votes are counted.<div type="image" title="Former President Donald Trump at a rally." height="4328" width="6648" msid="114911576" hostid="261" sizebytes="731590"></div>Harris' robust female stems, in part, from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-beyonce-abortion-reproductive-rights-trump-allred-2024-10">abortion rights</a>. The Supreme Court in 2022 overturned Roe v. Wade, sending the issue of abortion back to the states. Now, millions of women live in states with near-total abortion bans, while millions of other women live in states where abortion rights have been strengthened.In the closing days of the race, Harris has heavily emphasized the issue, which also helped Democrats in the 2022 midterms.Meanwhile, Trump has appeared on podcasts that appeal to conservative-leaning male listeners and seems to have attracted some significant support from young Black and Latino men, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://api.genforwardsurvey.com/download/442/?f=true&amp;_gl=1*jq7n7p*_ga*OTI5MzUxOTAzLjE3Mjk2OTUzMzc.*_ga_CSCXTK5ECE*MTcyOTY5NTMzNi4xLjEuMTcyOTY5NjQ4NS4wLjAuMA">according to polling</a>.The huge gender gap is illustrated in a recent top-rated national poll.A late October <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/27/us/elections/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html">New York Times/Siena College survey</a> of likely voters showed Trump ahead of Harris by 14 points among men (55% to 41%), while Harris held a 12-point edge over Trump (54% to 42%) with women. Overall, the survey showed the race tied, with the candidates each earning 48% support from respondents.

The US presidential election is 2 days away. Here's where things stand.

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are bracing for the US presidential election amid a tight race between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump.</li><li>The US dollar is in firm focus as traders tread cautiously ahead of the polls.</li></ul>Markets are holding their breath at the start of a big week.The US presidential election on Tuesday is the biggest event this week, and traders are firmly focused on a jittery dollar on Monday amid a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.On Monday, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a> — which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies — was 0.5% lower at 3:27 a.m. ET.Meanwhile, the US dollar was 0.6% lower against the Japanese yen and the euro was 0.5% higher than the dollar.The dollar lost ground after weekend polls showed the odds of a Republican sweep falling, and the likelihood of a Democratic win with a split Congress increasing, Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ig.com/sg/news-and-trade-ideas/aud-usd-looks-to-us-election-for-relief-241104">trading platform IG,</a> wrote on Monday.Polls that show Trump's odds falling would put pressure on the dollar. This is because Trump, the Republican candidate, has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7">wide-sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates — which would support the greenback."This shift has weighed on the US dollar, as traders unwind some of the 'USD <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11">Trump Trade</a>' premium," wrote Sycamore, referring to the weekend poll.Cash trade in US Treasuries trade was closed in Asian trading hours as markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.<h2 id="43e035ed-ee9e-417b-ab2c-dcd98ece54aa">Fed meeting and China stimulus</h2>The US elections aren't all that's influencing the markets this week.The US Federal Reserve is also set to hold its interest rate-setting meeting on Wednesday and Thursday.Regardless of who wins the election, the Fed is expected to cut key rates by 25 basis points, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/federal-reserve-cut-rates-by-25-basis-points-next-two-meetings-2024-10-29/">Reuters poll</a> of 111 economists.Factors driving the potential cut include Friday's jobs data, which showed the US economy added just <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">12,000 jobs in October</a> — far lower than the forecast of 106,000 jobs. Meanwhile, inflation has cooled over the last few months."The Fed is more relaxed about inflation and is putting more focus on the jobs market as it attempts to secure a soft landing for the economy," analysts at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/fed-to-cut-25bp-irrespective-of-election-outcome/">ING wrote in a note on Friday.</a>Since Joe Biden will still be president until January 20, macro newsflow would still drive the Fed's interest rate decisions until December, the ING analysts added.On the other side of the world, China is expected to greenlight a fresh round of stimulus as its Standing Committee of National People's Congress — its top legislative body — meets from Monday through Friday.The world's second-largest economy has been mired in a prolonged economic downturn amid an epic property crisis. In late September, it announced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">aggressive stimulus</a> to boost its economy, but analysts say much more is needed to drive flagging consumption.This week, China's legislative body would be considering a plan to raise $1.4 trillion in extra debt over the next few years to fund a part of an economic rescue package, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/">Reuters</a> reported on Tuesday, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter.The amount could be increased if Trump wins the presidential race, underscoring the outsized influence of the US election on the rest of the world."US election outcomes and the resulting tariff risks are consequential to China equity via the intertwined economic, currency, policy, earnings, and valuation channels," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote on Monday.

The US dollar is jittery ahead of a big week, and there's more to it than the presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's hybrid warfare tactics against the US and Europe are reaching new levels.</li><li>The disinformation efforts seek to influence elections and stir chaos in domestic politics.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/front-line-nato-allies-baltics-face-russian-hybrid-threats-2024-6">Russian disinformation and interference</a> — hybrid warfare tactics — are on the rise and again showed up in the US presidential election, but this is a problem for more than just America.Earlier this week, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia was conducting "an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks across our allied territories, interfering directly in our democracies, sabotaging industry, and committing violence," echoing long-standing concerns.Russian tactics were on full display in the 2024 US presidential election. On Tuesday, various polling sites in five battleground states were the targets of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-poll-bomb-threats-russia-election-harris-trump-2024-11">hoax bomb threats from Russian email domains</a>, the FBI said, and that was only part of Russian actions.Georgia's Secretary of State accused Moscow of being "up to mischief," saying that "they don't want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory."The Russian embassy in Washington denied the accusations as "malicious slander" and said "Russia has not interfered and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries," including the US, but such activities are well documented.<h2 id="193769f6-1321-4ffb-b08c-2325bce96246">Rising levels of interference</h2><div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-US President Donald Trump sit in chairs opposite each other, shaking hands." height="3327" width="4889" msid="115115440" hostid="261" sizebytes="445288"></div>Experts and officials began to seriously take note of efforts by Russia and other US adversaries, such as China and Iran, to disrupt US politics in 2016, and it's continually gotten worse."Undoubtedly we've seen an uptick in the scope and scale and, really, the kind of brazenness of Russian election interference in the information environment," Doug Livermore, a member of the US special operations community and the director of engagements at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, told Business Insider.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html">Hybrid warfare</a> covers a range of tactics, such as assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, electoral interference, and disinformation, intended to deniably influence or disrupt national security and domestic affairs.2016 saw the rising influence of Russian bot farms and mass disinformation while the 2020 election saw major efforts by Russia and other US foes to stoke violence and unrest, particularly as then-President Donald Trump contested the results and inspired the January 6th insurrection on the US Capitol.A month prior to the 2024 election, the National Intelligence Council released a report <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/NICM-Declassified-Foreign-Threats-to-US-Elections-After-Voting-Ends-in-2024.pdf">warning that Russia, China, and Iran were better equipped to influence the election</a> and undermine confidence in the results due to lessons from 2020; the council cited a range of tactics that could be used, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and encouragement of electoral chaos and violence.<div type="image" title="capitol riot january 6" height="1666" width="2500" msid="115115445" hostid="261" sizebytes="414688"></div>Then, on Monday, the head of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said disinformation was being spread by US adversaries "at a greater level than ever before."The efforts were designed to prompt distrust, fear, and misunderstanding in American voters and raise doubts over the integrity of US democracy. The 2024 presidential election was likely of particular interest to Russia, though, because of what was on the line: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-win-clocking-ticking-on-ukraine-aid-2024-11">US support for Ukraine</a>, of which Trump has been less supportive.<h2 id="a4700f32-0a7c-4d04-93ea-ed4b4b837c59">More than an American problem</h2>This hybrid warfare is a broader problem for other Western countries, too. In recent months, Russia was accused of attempting to undermine Moldova's election in favor of a pro-Moscow candidate, using tactics such as a vote-buying scheme, organizing transportation to get Russians to vote at Moldovan missions in other countries, and cyberattacks and fake bomb threats to out-of-country voting operations.Russia was also recently accused of attempting to interfere in the Republic of Georgia's parliamentary election, as well as elections in France, the UK, Germany, and others. The big difference between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-west-must-respond-to-russias-rapidly-escalating-hybrid-warfare/">how Russia engages in hybrid warfare in the US versus some European democracies</a> comes down to the political systems that exist in those countries, Livermore said. In the US' two party system, Russia's focuses on creating discontent within a certain party or between the parties.<div type="image" title="An older woman puts a paper ballot in a box at a voting location in a basketball gym." height="5119" width="7678" msid="115115442" hostid="261" sizebytes="993200"></div>In European democracies, Russia's focus often appears to be creating cracks within how the various parliamentary parties interact and form coalitions. Pro-European Union or NATO groups or candidates are often targeted, too, as was the case in Moldova's election.Across the board, Russia is opportunistic. "They don't really care about the ideology of the organizations," Livermore said, so long as it "advances the Kremlin's interests."These interference efforts also undermine democracy more generally, working in favor of autocratic governments. In the run-up to the US presidential election, Chinese state media emphasized deep divisions, dysfunction, and fears of violence in the US.The state-run Beijing Daily, for example, wrote: "the US election, once considered a highlight of the so-called 'beacon of democracy,' may now become the starting gun of 'social unrest.'"Livermore said such efforts allow Russia and China to indict democracy in favor of their authoritarian governments. Notably, experts have assessed Russia, China, and Iran are growing increasingly closer in efforts to challenge the US-led world order. North Korea, too, is right there with them.<h2 id="68359602-dfe7-4892-949e-9a8712a6b38f">Weakening the intended effect</h2><div type="image" title="Vice President Kamala Harris stands at a podium delivering her concession speech." height="3182" width="4773" msid="115115448" hostid="261" sizebytes="1578158"></div>After it Trump won the presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris conceded quickly. Her call for a peaceful transfer of power was echoed by President Joe Biden."For over 200 years, America has carried on the greatest experiment in self-government in the history of the world," he said, "where the people, the people vote and choose their own leaders and they do it peacefully. And where in a democracy, the will of the people always prevails."Livermore said that because this election's results, unlike in 2020, aren't being contested, that could mean failure for any hybrid warfare tactics from US adversaries in the months ahead of Inauguration Day. He said Russia, China, and Iran were likely "hoping that they were going to have a couple of months of chaos in the US," but that is now much less likely.US stability in the transition of power can be attributed to lessons learned from 2020, from local and federal governments to law enforcement, on how to maintain trust in the election process and suppress post-election violence.

A worsening kind of Russian warfare was on display in the US presidential election, but it's a much bigger problem

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AOC during a recent Instagram Q&amp;A asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection.</li><li>The responses were candid, and many pointed to the economy and the conflict in Gaza.</li></ul>Similar to Democrats across the country reflecting on Vice President Kamala Harris' election loss, New York Rep. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-democratic-national-convention-speech-political-evolution-progressives-mainstream-2024-8">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</a> has spent time thinking about the ramifications of President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House. Ocasio-Cortez, a strong backer of Harris and one of the most progressive voices in the US House of Representatives, took to Instagram this past weekend where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/SJohnson99/status/1855782107118735587/video/1">she argued that "most people" aren't ready</a> for the president-elect in office again. During her conversation, she highlighted Trump's pledge to initiate <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-thomas-homan-illegal-immigration-border-czar-ice-2024-11">mass deportations</a> as well as his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">tariff threats</a>. Then Ocasio-Cortez opened up the floor to Instagram users, asking for responses from people who backed her reelection in New York's 14th Congressional District and Trump's candidacy or who backed Trump and downballot Democrats in other states. Many of the responses pointed to two key issues: the economy and the conflict in Gaza. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-blue-wall-democrats-suburban-voters-unions-2024-11">Harris crafted an economic message</a> that she believed would differentiate herself from President Joe Biden, who stepped aside as the presumptive Democratic nominee in July. And the vice president sought to reassure voters concerned over the Israel-Hamas war and the plight of Palestinians that she would work to secure peace in the region as president. But she wasn't able to counter Trump's electoral performance. A slew of Instagram users said they registered their general frustration by not supporting Harris. The responses to Ocasio-Cortez included: <ul><li>"It's real simple… Trump and you care for the working class"</li><li>"Trump is going to get us the money and lets men have a voice. You're brilliant and have amazing passion!"</li><li>"I feel like Trump and you are both real."</li><li>"I know people that did this and it was bc of Gaza."</li><li>"You are focused on the real issues people care about. Similar to Trump populism in some ways."</li><li>"Because of Gaza"</li><li>"I voted Trump and dems because he reached out to Muslims"</li></ul>Democrats struggled to rally core parts of their longtime base — which included younger Black men and Latino voters — which benefited Trump. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-margins-democratic-states-harris-underperform-2024-11">The president-elect made major inroads</a>, notably in several Democratic-heavy states, as many voters remained frustrated over the direction of the country. Harris argued that her presidency would have tackled of some of the biggest economic and foreign policy challenges that the country faced, but in the end she wasn't able to recreate Biden's 2020 coalition. Correction: November 12, 2024 — An earlier version of this story overstated what is known about the people who responded to Rep. <keyword id="22445548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez" source="keywords">Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</keyword> on Instagram. It's unclear whether the respondents voted.

AOC asked voters why they backed her candidacy and Trump's reelection. Instagram users pointed to the economy and Gaza.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Election Day is now just 50 days away.</li><li>Kamala Harris is riding a wave of enthusiasm and was deemed the winner of the first debate.</li></ul>The US presidential election is just 50 days away and the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">remains as competitive as ever</a>.Days after the first — and maybe only — nationally televised <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-presidential-debate-takeaways-2024-9">debate</a> between Harris and Trump, the campaign is growing intense as both candidates work to shore up support among their political base and court voters in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">the key battleground states</a> that'll likely determine the election's outcome.The campaign has already seen its fair share of historic turns. And to underscore that anything can still happen to change the trajectory of the race, the FBI is now investigating what they said "appears" to be a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-shots-fired-florida-golf-course-2024-9">second assassination attempt</a> against Trump near his West Palm Beach golf course in Florida on Sunday.The incident comes just months after the July assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, where <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-butler-pennsylvania-rally-secret-service-2024-7">the former president sustained a gunshot wound</a> to his ear during an outdoor rally. Officials said no one was injured in Sunday's incident.The first assassination attempt ushered in a wave of populist support for Trump, who — for a brief moment — seemed to be running away with the election, especially with a shaky debate performance from President Joe Biden. Then, a week after the attempted shooting, Biden announced he would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">exit the race</a> and endorse Harris, and everything changed.Harris has been riding a wave of growing support ever since. The recent debate in Philadelphia was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/early-polls-harris-won-presidential-debate/story?id=113590484">widely seen as a success</a> for Harris, who made her campaign appeal in front of her largest single-day audience since Biden stepped aside.Nationally, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-debate-winner-maintaining-slight-lead-trump-poll/story?id=113673862">latest ABC News/Ipsos poll</a> shows Harris with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%) among likely voters.But as Americans know well, it's about the electoral college, not the popular vote. So, in the next seven weeks, a lot of math will be performed as the candidates make a mad grab for any available votes.<h2 id="5417ab6b-8413-4dbe-9a0f-c0c386e80c68">Harris and Trump do the electoral math</h2>After Biden left the race, the Democratic Party rallied around Harris.Polling in critical swing states — like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/15/north-carolina-trump-harris-campaigns">North Carolina</a> — immediately began to shift, largely due to the vice president's popularity among women and young voters.In the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wisconsin-kamala-harris-trump-presidential-swing-state-2024-7">Wisconsin</a>, Harris and Trump remain neck and neck — though Harris has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/">seen her position strengthen</a> in Wisconsin.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump" height="2391" width="3586" msid="113391729" hostid="261" sizebytes="133252"></div>Both campaigns are eying Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district, which is anchored in the Omaha metropolitan area. The district offers just one electoral vote, but in a sign of just how close American elections have become, both sides consider it crucial. Trump won it in 2016. Biden won it in 2020.The Harris campaign hopes the Midwestern roots of her vice presidential pick, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, will help the Democrats hold onto the 2nd district. Walz will face off against Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who also has Midwestern roots, on October 1 in what could be the last debate of the election season.Michigan, another Midwestern state, also remains competitive. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned Democrats <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/whitmer-harris-michigan-polls-presidential-election-democrats-trump-2024-9">not to believe the polls</a> showing Harris with a comfortable lead in the state.Both campaigns continue to pour considerable time and financial resources into <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-pennsylvania-presidential-debate-philadelphia-fracking-abortion-2024-9">Pennsylvania</a>, where Democratic candidates have won every presidential election since 1992 except for one — when Trump won it in 2016.Trump hopes to reclaim Pennsylvania and a handful of other states that flipped to the Democrats between 2016 and 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Earlier this summer, the GOP eyed potential upsets in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nhjournal.com/new-st-as-post-debate-poll-finds-harris-holds-8-point-lead-in-nh/">New Hampshire</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/09/10/virginia-poll-results-harris-trump/">Virginia</a>, but recent polling shows that both states are likely to remain in the Democratic column this fall.<h2 id="6ee67ad4-6058-453b-b5cf-cda5e041c1aa">The vice-presidential debate looms large</h2>Walz and Vance's October debate in New York City will give the American public their first chance at seeing both men together onstage in a major setting.For Walz, it'll be a chance to sway undecided voters who may be leaning toward Harris but want to hear more from the Democratic ticket about their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5">plans for the economy</a>.<div type="image" title="Kamala Harris" height="3000" width="4500" msid="113391736" hostid="261" sizebytes="674482"></div>While Harris' debate performance went a long way in assuaging some voters regarding her ability to lead the country, some are still undecided. Walz could be an effective conduit for those voters.For Vance, the debate will allow him to speak about the Republican ticket's policy message in a manner that eludes Trump, who often veers off-script.Walz has seen favorable polling in recent weeks. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-tim-walz-sun-belt-independent-voters-polls-2024-8">Vance has not</a>.Vance has been highly visible in the media but has been forced to repeatedly defend himself against past stances on issues like IVF — as well as newer controversies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-haitian-immigrants-ohio-eating-pets-trump-2024-9">his remarks regarding Haitian immigrants</a> in Springfield, Ohio.So while the momentum may be for now in the Democrats' favor, 50 days is a long time in a race that has seen major shifts in time spans as short as a week. Who will be on top by the time voting is finished on November 5 remains anyone's guess.

We are 50 days from the US presidential election. Here's where things stand.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US debt is surging and Trump and Harris's plans will only add to the pile, the former FDIC chair says.</li><li>Sheila Bair warns that high debt cause the next financial crisis. </li></ul>The US debt has soared in recent years, and with no solution proposed by either presidential candidate, it will likely hit unprecedented levels that could spur a crisis, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair said.Surging debt levels could cause the next financial crisis if left unchecked, Bair warned. Bair, who chaired the FDIC during the global financial crisis of 2008, said the government employed deficit-financed spending and tax relief during past crises in 2008 and during the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001.At the time, those were correct decisions, but the government has kept up that level of spending since, driving up the debt and creating a risk to the economy."Now, the resulting overhang of federal debt could itself be the cause of a future crisis," Bair wrote in an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/national-debt-financial-crisis-harris-trump-investors-8608ce19">op-ed</a> last week.What's more, Bair said both presidential candidates lack plans to fix the debt, and their proposals will likely continue to drive government borrowing to sustainable levels. That raises the risk of a scenario in which global investors lose faith in the country's ability to pay its debt, eroding confidence in the hugely important US Treasury market. Investors could demand higher premiums, driving up the government's interest payment, which could forced tax hikes, spending cuts, and Treasury losses, Bair says.Those factors would cause widespread economic distress, she said. "Both parties have decided that deficits don't matter anymore, which is pretty distressing because they do. At some point we're going to reach the inflection point, and they're going to matter a lot to investors who are going to question if they want to keep buying our debt," Bair told CNBC in a Monday interview.The gross national debt has topped $35 trillion. Trump's proposed policies would pile on a whopping $7.75 trillion in the next 10 years, while Harris's plans would add $3.95 trillion, Bair said, citing findings from the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a>.Bair says the debt problem is getting little attention in this election cycle because to solve the debt crisis, the candidates would likely need to hike taxes or lower spending on social programs — neither of which would be popular among voters."There's no political payoff for it. People don't want to hear that their taxes are going to go up, or their benefits are going to go down," Bair told CNBC. "And even if you go and make those hard decisions and institute some reforms, the next generation of leadership could come in and just squander it all, so I think politicians have just decided it's not worth it."She said leaders need to take a bipartisan approach to avoid any political fallout, working shore up social security, reduce the deficit, and reform the tax code."You have to lock arms and do it," she said. "That's what happened in the 1980s, and I'm hoping that's what can happen again. We need for it to happen again."

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