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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe continues to import Russian natural gas, despite pledges to wean off the fuel after the invasion of Ukraine.</li><li>Europe's reliance on Russian gas has dropped from over 40% to about 15% since the Ukraine war.</li></ul>Europe has pledged to wean itself from Russian natural gas following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but it's still buying the fuel.Europe's monthly imports of Russian liquefied natural gas — the supercooled version of natural gas that can be transported on ships — have been holding relatively steady, in the 850,000 to 1.6 million metric ton range, since the invasion of Ukraine, per <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg records.</a>This continued import of Russian fuel shows the complications of cutting off Russian gas completely in the global energy market.To be sure, Russia's share in Europe's natural-gas imports has dropped dramatically since the Ukraine war started.Before the invasion, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/europes-messy-russian-gas-divorce/">Europe imported</a> over 40% of its natural gas from Russia — its single largest supplier and a major energy producer — mainly via pipelines.By the end of last year, Europe still imported about 15% of its total gas supply from Russia, with about 9% coming from pipelines and 6% as LNG. This is down from 43% and 4% from pipelines and LNG, respectively, in the first quarter of 2021."This means that the handful of member states that have not been able to or have not chosen to reduce their dependency remain highly vulnerable to Russia's weaponization of energy imports," Brookings analysts wrote in a June report.<h2 id="d2e6d7e8-d863-4f71-a938-3b296496b522">US stepped up LNG imports to Europe, but shipments have fallen this year</h2>Europe's continued imports of Russian gas are in part due to shifting demands for the fuel that has driven a lot of exports from the US — the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-was-top-lng-exporter-2023-hit-record-levels-2024-01-02/">world's top LNG exporter</a> last year — to other locations this year.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/us-lng-supplies-to-europe-overtake-russian-gas-iea-says">US supplied more natural gas</a> to Europe than Russia did for the first time ever in June 2022, but the gap between the two countries' LNG shipments has narrowed.In July, the difference between the amount of LNG the US and Russia shipped to Europe contracted to its lowest since late 2021, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-30/russia-s-lng-clout-in-europe-rises-as-us-fuel-heads-elsewhere">Bloomberg analysis</a> of preliminary ship-tracking data published on Tuesday.At the end of July, Europe imported 1.5 million metric tons of LNG from the US, just slightly more than the 1.3 million tons the region imported from Russia.The gap between Europe's imports has been narrowing this year. At the end of January, Europe imported 5.2 million tons of LNG from the US and just 1.5 million tons from Russia.This is mostly due to US LNG shippers sending their goods to where the money is: Asia, where prices have been trading at a premium to Europe due to a summer heatwave.Spot LNG cargoes for delivery to North Asia were priced around $12 per million British thermal units, or mmBtu, in the week to July 26, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/asias-lng-imports-shift-higher-europes-fades-russell-2024-07-29/">Reuters</a> in a Monday report. This was about 17% higher than the $10.30 mmBtu for delivery to Europe on July 26.Importers from Japan — a top buyer — were seeking spot cargoes in late June, according to Rystad, an energy research firm, at the time. This means demand has risen more than what importers had projected when they locked in long-term contracts earlier.Asia was the "preferred destination" for US cargoes for delivery in August and September, wrote Masanori Odaka, a senior analyst at Rystad.

The US is sending less natural gas to Europe, complicating Europe's plans to cut off Russian gas

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Pennsylvania has one of the fastest-aging populations in the nation.</li><li>It's a case study of how the US will handle a surge of retirees and fewer younger workers.</li></ul>Maureen, 67, is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-presidential-election-swing-state-polls-sun-belt-2024-10">planning to vote</a> for former President Donald Trump in November because she believes he'll be more beneficial to her finances now that she's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-retirement-of-peak-boomers-could-affect-economy-social-security-2024-4">retired</a>.The northeast Pennsylvania resident, who requested her last name be withheld to protect her privacy, said she approaches each election with an open mind and has previously voted for both Republicans and Democrats. Like many Americans, this time around, Maureen's deciding factor is her <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blockbuster-jobs-report-kamala-harris-election-trump-inflation-economy-2024-10">perception of the economy</a>."I'm just looking back over the past eight years, and my 401(k) grew in the four years Trump was in office," Maureen told Business Insider. "Do I like his personality? Heck no, I don't. But my 401(k) went up, interest rates were low, unemployment rates were low."Maureen's view highlights a common theme among American voters, particularly those <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/older-americans-regret-retirement-savings-taking-social-security-early-investments-2024-10">carefully watching their retirement</a> nest egg: they hold whoever is president accountable for how they feel about their finances. Despite the fact that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">stocks</a> have enjoyed significant gains under both Biden and Trump and even though the Federal Reserve — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cut-trump-fed-powell-reaction-independence-history-2024-9">not the president</a> — dictates benchmark interest rates, Maureen still blames the current administration for her dissatisfaction.Marjorie Klein, 80, lives in Philadelphia and is also retired. Similar to Maureen, she's concerned about financial security for older Americans — but she will be supporting Vice President Kamala Harris."He says that he's going to keep Social Security, but you never know with him," Klein told BI of Trump.Americans like Maureen and Klein may decide the election. A Morning Consult <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-pennsylvania.html">poll</a> conducted from October 6 to 15 found Harris leading Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania by just one point. However, among voters aged 50 and over in Pennsylvania, a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2024/pennsylvania-harris-trump-poll.html">poll</a> from AARP found Trump leading Harris by eight points."We're a pivotal state for this presidency," Bill Johnston-Walsh, state director of AARP Pennsylvania, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-2024/pennsylvania-harris-trump-poll.html">said</a>. "Whoever wants it is going to have to go through us."Pennsylvania is a case study for the role the federal government will play in supporting the US's aging population over the next few decades through programs like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-retirement-of-peak-boomers-could-affect-economy-social-security-2024-4">Social Security</a> and Medicare. Pennsylvania voters and economists told BI it's vital that the next presidential administration plan for a future when retirees greatly outnumber younger Americans to ensure the economy and workforce can function effectively. As a swing state, it's critical for their campaigns that Harris and Trump listen to older Pennsylvanians' concerns.<h2 id="af5cee7e-b374-4096-b8b8-8442a2e05213">Social Security and Medicare in the hot seat</h2>Pennsylvania is aging rapidly; it has nearly 2.5 million residents over the age of 65, the fifth-highest total in the country. Nationally, the population of adults over 65 is expected to surge by 20 million between now and 2040.The state's residents rely heavily on federal government income, mainly through Social Security and Medicare, with two rural counties — Fayette and Cambria — among the most reliant in the nation, a report from the bipartisan Economic Innovation Group found.Benjamin Glasner, a coauthor of EIG's <a target="_blank" href="https://eig.org/great-transfermation/">report</a>, told BI that the most reliant counties were generally in older, poor, and more rural communities. Cambria, for example, needed more government aid after steel plant closures in the 1980s. Residents' incomes still haven't recovered."You can only receive so much from Social Security. Medicare can only cover so much, and Medicaid can only cover so much," Glasner said, adding that creates "a thin level of economic prosperity" reliant on the program's generosity."Mike Crossey, 73, has seen the limits of government aid firsthand in his work as an advocate for retirees. The Pittsburgh-area resident wants the next president of the US to strengthen Social Security, protect pensions, and expand Medicare. He said he knows too many older Americans who live off Social Security alone, which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/">averaged</a> $1,921 nationally for retirees in September."I run into people every day who are still making decisions about, 'Do I take my prescriptions today or do I have lunch today?' And that just breaks my heart," Crossey said.While Trump has denied that he would cut Social Security and previously criticized GOP lawmakers who proposed raising the retirement age to 70, the Committee for a Responsible Budget <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-trump-campaign-plans-mean-social-security">said</a> that Trump's policies could force cuts to Social Security benefits in as little as six years. Harris has proposed strengthening Social Security by ensuring the wealthy and big corporations pay what they owe in taxes.With the Social Security and Medicare Board of Trustees report recently projecting that Social Security will only be able to pay out full benefits <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-social-security-benefits-run-out-retirement-crisis-boomers-2024-5">for the next 11 years</a>, the issue is growing more pressing, and not only for Pennsylvanians. Richard Fiesta, the executive director of the nonpartisan 4 million-member Alliance for Retired Americans, said that "Congress and the next administration needs to have a serious look at Social Security."Some retirees are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-savings-401k-pension-real-estate-investments-baby-boomers-2024-6">able to live comfortably</a> amid economic headwinds. However, Fiesta said the decline in defined benefit pension plans, or employer-subsidized retirement plans, contributes to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-crisis-social-security-poverty-older-americans-savings-inequality-2024-3">slump in average retiree savings</a>.This means that more and more Americans rely primarily on Social Security to help keep them financially afloat as they age. The previously mentioned EIG report found that income from government aid is the fastest-growing portion of an American's income, and it is primarily driven by retirees, who make up a rising share of the total US population."And we're just kind of seeing that now over the last 10 to 15 years as that generation ages into retirement," Fiesta said.<h2 id="a2e550dc-625f-4039-8e34-cbb0ecc4d25f">An aging workforce creates job mismatches</h2>The workforce in Pennsylvania is already starting to see imbalances as the younger population dwindles and the number of retirees grows.Kyle Kopko, executive director of the bipartisan legislative agency Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said local business owners complain of labor shortages. CRP research suggests that's due to fewer older adults working traditional jobs and instead pursuing entrepreneurship to supplement their retirement incomes. At the same time, lower birth rates mean younger adults are not filling the open roles either, Kopko said."If you don't have a pool of younger adults in Pennsylvania who can backfill for some of the retirees, that's going to create supply and demand imbalances," Kopko said, referring to the role retirees play in the economy as consumers, but less so as workers.When it comes to the issue of jobs nationwide, Harris proposed tax incentives for small businesses to spur more hiring, while Trump has largely focused on bolstering manufacturing in the US to create more jobs.One possible avenue for job creation — the infrastructure industry — has hardly been mentioned by either candidate in policy discussions. Bill Candelori, a 68-year-old retired commercial painter, sees this as an overlooked opportunity. He says Biden's infrastructure investments, which brought $16 billion to Pennsylvania, was a promising step but wants the next administration to go further."It's not only roads and bridges. It's airports, it's water authorities, it's schools, it's libraries, any public project," Candelori said. "That's work for us. And it's work afterward on maintaining those facilities. It's job creation."<h2 id="485b4799-3267-4ca3-96b7-d90ae5f90405">Political steps being taken</h2>State and local governments have already taken steps to address these mounting issues. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro — a Democrat — has worked with members of his administration to create a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/aging/documents/aging-our-way/documents/AOW%20Final%20PDF%20online%20version%20with%20signature.pdf">10-year strategic plan</a> that outlined eight key priorities for older adults, including housing, transportation, and health and community support.Pennsylvania's Aging Secretary Jason Kavulich said it's a bipartisan issue that has bipartisan support: "There is not a representative or senator who I've ever sat down with that does not care about older adults in their district."JR Reed and Krista Geer, both in charge of county-wide aging agencies, have met with older adults in Pennsylvania to hear their top worries. Geer said that one of the biggest concerns she's heard about is the high cost of living, which has interfered with their ability to afford medications, gas, and groceries. Though inflation has moderated in recent months, it's still historically elevated and putting pressure on consumers."Social security just doesn't quite keep pace with that," Geer said. The program adjusts payouts annually to account for inflation. Critics say it isn't tied to a measure that accurately reflects the spending of older Americans.Reed and Geer agree the solution is for older populations to have a bigger nest egg, but not one that comes from Social Security. Reed said that he hopes Trump or Harris will continue to fund a 1965 federal law that provides funding to states to better support older adults.At the federal level, Harris recently proposed a plan that would allow Medicare coverage for in-home eldercare, which Fiesta said would "go a long way" toward helping both older adults and the family members who typically would take care of them.Trump, to date, has offered minimal details about his plans to address eldercare. Brian Hughes — his campaign's senior advisor — told BI that the presidential hopeful and his running mate, JD Vance, "share the principles of using more choice in the marketplace and efficiency as tools for better, more affordable health care."Overall, the stakes for an aging US population are high, and bipartisan participation is required to ensure the country is properly prepared for a surge in retirees.Kavulich said that the shift needs to be addressed head-on."Older adults really drive our economies," Kavulich said. "They drive our communities, and we have to respect that. And we have to not just think of them as frail and old and vulnerable."

A battle over the future of US retirement is playing out in Pennsylvania as the election looms 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deutsche Energy Terminal has been told to reject Russian LNG, according to The Financial Times.</li></ul>Germany is believed to have told its ports to reject Russian cargoes of liquefied natural gas in a bid to further isolate Vladimir Putin's energy industry.The country's economic ministry told the state-owned Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept deliveries of Russian LNG, according to a letter dated November 6 obtained by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/94bb16b8-b4b1-4360-b7d0-cecca1ebffaa?accessToken=zwAGJtzDN_1YkdOUuxa4tLFDYNO30M7Moev_qg.MEYCIQClq2abFM5Kf3q6PR9Ry9NhImf-JYCu4Yh6Rh9BsTbqZgIhAPT3_uF_tz7M8QVY1Ev2iiCyzpSATlrHAOp2YMu48s9L&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=4d2150bc-286c-4fe0-9795-2102f9e6b9ca">Financial Times</a>.The letter was sent after the company was due to receive a Russian cargo shipment on Sunday at its import facility in Brunsbüttel, the FT said.It went on to say that the decision would protect Germany's "overriding public interests."The letter added that accepting the deliveries would defy the reason the German terminal was initially opened — to allow Germany and the EU to become "independent of Russian gas."It comes as the EU weighs up buying more LNG from the US when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in a bid to convince him not to impose high import tariffs on EU companies. Trump pledged on the campaign trail to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a fresh era</a> of trade <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a>. He has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and a 10% blanket tariff on all other goods entering the US.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said last week that she would consider replacing Russian LNG with more US imports as part of trade talks."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," von der Leyen told reporters on Friday. "It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to the US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>"It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> last week.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.As BI previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-energy-industry-europe-target-trump-election-win-2024-11">reported</a>, it has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US. The US is now a top exporter of gas to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Germany hasn't imported LNG directly from Russia since the invasion. However, according to a Kpler report obtained by FT, the country's state energy group, Sefe, has a long-term contract to import Russian LNG via France.In a statement to Business Insider, a spokesperson for Germany's economic ministry said it wouldn't comment on "possible leaked documents.""It is correct that Germany does not import Russian gas and it is also clear to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," the spokesperson added.Deutsche Energy Terminal and Sefe did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Germany banned Russian gas from its ports, the latest move to isolate Putin's energy industry: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump has said he plans to bring down gas prices by boosting US oil production.</li><li>ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods doesn't see a US oil boom in the near future.</li></ul>President-elect Donald Trump's promise to unleash a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">big oil boom</a> in the US and lower gas prices is running up against a market reality: The world is already awash in fossil fuels. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semafor.com/article/11/12/2024/exxon-ceo-darren-woods-donald-trump-shouldnt-scrap-methane-regulations">Semafor</a> on November 12 that while he wants to maintain US oil production at its current highs, the market is already well supplied. "I don't think today that production in the US is constrained," he said. "I don't know that there's an opportunity to unleash a lot of production in the near term." During the presidential campaign, Trump said that he planned to lower energy prices — including the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">cost of gas</a> — by increasing US oil production. "We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.factcheck.org/2024/10/the-issues-trumps-proposal-to-lower-prices-by-increasing-energy-production/">said</a> in October. "I will cut your energy prices in half within 12 months." In September, Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/us/politics/trump-economics-gas-tariffs-inflation.html">said</a> he would reduce gas prices to below $2 a gallon. Energy analysts told Business Insider that big oil companies are more focused on returning money to shareholders than investing in projects that boost production, especially because China isn't importing as much oil due to its economic downturn. Their comments underscore how little control a US president has over the oil and gas market, including prices at the pump. "It's a global market," Ben Cahill, director of energy markets and policy at the University of Texas at Austin, told BI. "There's very little any president can do to change the direction of oil or gasoline prices." Cahill added that he expects the US to increase oil production, but it will happen gradually. The US is already producing record amounts of oil, at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545">12.9 million barrels of crude a day in 2023</a> compared with about 11 million barrels per day in 2020, when Trump was in office. Last year, the US also became the world's biggest exporter of natural gas. In October, the US Energy Information Administration <a target="_blank" href="https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-eia-expects-domestic-crude-oil-production-reach-135-mbd-2025.html#:~:text=At%20a%20global%20scale%2C%20the,13.5%20mb%2Fd%20in%202025.">projected</a> that the US would produce 13.5million barrels a day in 2025, hitting another record. And there is room for the industry to expand. Woods <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/exxon-ceo-says-us-election-wont-affect-oil-production.html">told</a> CNBC earlier this month that there are areas in the Gulf of Mexico — where federal leasing hasn't allowed companies to drill — that could be a source of additional oil production in the long term. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told BI that Trump could take some steps to try to boost US oil production, including easing regulations to open up additional places for companies to drill and working with OPEC. However, he said boosting oil production while keeping prices at a desired level is a "delicate balance" for the industry. "If oil prices drop, you're likely to see a natural decline in US oil production over the long run," he said, adding, "Oil companies have shareholders to be accountable to." In recent years, the US has increased oil production even as President Joe Biden imposed stricter limits on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and gas-powered vehicles to help slow the climate crisis. In a separate interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/exxon-says-trump-should-keep-u-s-in-paris-climate-pact-3d8de471">The Wall Street Journal</a>, Woods added that the US shouldn't drop out of the Paris Agreement as Trump did in his first term and has promised to do again. The nearly 200 countries signed onto that agreement <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-strike-historic-climate-dealfossil-fuels-dubai-2023-12">struck a deal last year at the UN climate summit </a>to move away from fossil fuels this decade and the triple renewable energy by 2030. Woods told Semafor that he supports Biden's limits on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Exxon and other US oil majors have goals to reduce emissions, but climate scientists warn<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exxon-chevron-investors-reject-climate-change-proposals-2023-6">they aren't aggressive enough</a> to avert catastrophic levels of global warming.

Trump said he'll unleash an oil boom. Exxon Mobil CEO says not so fast.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Good morning! A Sam's Club with robots making pizza and no cash registers could be the new norm for the warehouse club. CEO Chris Nicholas spoke to BI about what he wants <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sams-club-ceo-chris-nicholas-interview-2024-10">shopping "in the future" to feel like</a>.In today's big story, Goldman Sachs thinks the past decade of big returns from the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">is coming to a close</a>.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Americans' rising pile of debt <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">is making banks nervous</a>.</li><li>Tech: SoftBank-backed creator-economy startup <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">Jellysmack is cutting staff</a>.</li><li>Business: New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">parting ways</a>.</li></ul>But first, is this the end?If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">A new era for stocks?</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of moody Standard &amp; Poor's sign" height="1440" width="1920" msid="114468948" hostid="261" sizebytes="207764"></div>Forget the economy; Goldman Sachs is projecting a hard landing for future stock returns.The bank's portfolio strategy research team forecasts the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">will see annualized returns of 3% over the next decade</a>, writes BI's Filip De Mott.That'd be a sharp comedown for stock investors, who have enjoyed 13% in annualized returns for the major index over the past 10 years.Setting aside the market's recent strength, Goldman's forecast still isn't great. Annualized returns of 3% would put it in the 7th percentile of performance since 1930.Goldman's rationale for the pessimistic take includes two things even a rookie investor can appreciate: The market is overvalued AND too concentrated.Currently, the S&amp;P 500 cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is 38, well above the index's average of 22. And the usual suspects — tech giants like Nvidia and Meta — have done much of the heavy lifting in helping the S&amp;P 500 to record highs.<div type="image" title="Wall Street sign with New York Stock Exchange building in the back." height="4162" width="6243" msid="114468943" hostid="261" sizebytes="1226440"></div>Not everyone agrees with Goldman's forecast.This very newsletter recently included commentary from experts who said <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">the two-year-old bull market still had plenty of gas left in the tank</a>.It seems the only industry consensus we have about stocks' future is there is no consensus. Case in point: Goldman is bullish on a short-term perspective, recently <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">raising its year-end S&amp;P 500 price target</a>.BI's Matthew Fox has a rundown on predictions from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-wall-street-bull-bear-predictions-economy-inflation-2024-10">the bulls, the bears, and those somewhere in the middle</a>.UBS, for example, sees <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">another big gain for the S&amp;P 500 next year</a>, writes BI's Jennifer Sor.The bank said a "no landing" for the US economy means the S&amp;P 500 could rise roughly 13% from its current levels. Inflation would remain somewhat elevated in the scenario, but the bank still sees room for the Fed to cut rates, which is bullish for stocks.On the other side of the spectrum are JPMorgan, which has maintained its bearish outlook this year in the face of a surging market, and Stifel, which has predicted a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">massive market downturn in 2025</a>.At the center of the debate sits artificial intelligence. Bears point to the tech as overinflating valuations with little to no evidence of it meaningfully driving revenue. Bulls say the hype is warranted, as the impact of AI is inevitable, like the rise of the internet.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Flight logs show Elon Musk's private jets are busy hitting swing states as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-private-jet-hits-swing-states-campaigns-donald-trump-2024-10">he campaigns for Trump</a>.</li><li>Ex-Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal has moved his AI startup out of stealth, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-twitter-ceo-parag-agrawal-ai-startup-stealth-parallel-2024-10">calling it Parallel</a>.</li><li>'The million-dollar question of this election': Women's health startups are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/womens-health-startups-risk-trump-wins-election-2024-10">confronting a shifting legal landscape</a>.</li><li>Putin's expanded BRICS summit proves he has friends — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">but risks buckling under its own contradictions</a>.</li><li>Medicare coverage will change in 2025. Some boomers are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/medicare-changes-increase-costs-deductibles-prescription-drugs-premiums-copays-2024-10">already struggling to keep up with their medical bills</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of New York's Financial District" height="500" width="1000" msid="114469218" hostid="261" sizebytes="114610"></div><ol><li>Big banks brace for losses as Americans' debt piles up. US consumers and businesses are struggling to pay off auto, credit, and commercial real-estate debt. In response, US banks have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10">steadily increased their cash reserves</a> in anticipation of loan losses. (But don't fear the worst; cash reserves are still far from Great Depression levels.)</li><li>Profits, not politics. Bank of America doesn't see November's election substantially impacting the stock market. Share price movement is driven by profit growth, and policies' impact on a sector <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">can be the opposite of what investors expect</a>.</li><li>A famed short-seller doesn't want beef with Tesla. The EV giant reports earnings on Wednesday, but Carson Block <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-short-seller-block-wont-elon-musk-valuation-2024-10">won't be betting against Elon Musk's company</a>. The investor known for his short bets said Tesla's massive size and Musk's ability to pull "rabbits out of the hat constantly" means he'll steer clear.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Jellysmack's jellyfish symbol glitching" height="900" width="1200" msid="114469221" hostid="261" sizebytes="37624"></div><ol><li>A creator-economy startup is laying off staff and pointing the finger at Meta. The SoftBank-backed company Jellysmack is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jellysmack-layoffs-restructuring-creator-economy-influencer-content-softbank-investment-2024-10">cutting 22 US staffers</a>. A Jellysmack representative told BI it was "scaling back certain operations in our Creator Program on Meta due to the opacity of their new monetization model." The program originally helped creators make money by sharing their content across Meta's platforms.</li><li>Wall Street can't quit Nvidia. Banks have kept hiking their price targets for the chip titan, whose share price is up almost 200% this year. But <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-nvda-blackwell-demand-outlook-chips-ai-2024-10">it's not deterring analysts</a>, who remain upbeat about the next-gen Blackwell chip and Nvidia's web of enterprise partnerships.</li><li>Advertisers rally against iPhone "Distraction Control" over fears it could sabotage websites. French groups representing around 800 companies in media and advertising signed an open letter lobbying Tim Cook to suspend the feature, which would allow Safari users to hide images, pop-ups, or ads. They called it <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/publishers-advertisers-call-on-apple-suspend-distraction-control-feature-2024-10">"an existential threat" to online advertising</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Bob Iger" height="1280" width="1920" msid="114468945" hostid="261" sizebytes="74892"></div><ol><li>Disney says it will appoint a new CEO in 2026. The company said it would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/disney-bob-iger-ceo-successor-early-2026-james-gorman-chairman-2024-10">announce a successor for Bob Iger</a> before his contract expires in December of that year.</li><li>New York magazine and Olivia Nuzzi are parting ways. The star reporter was placed on leave after her editors learned she'd had a relationship with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While a third-party investigation into Nuzzi's work found "no inaccuracies nor evidence of bias" in her reporting, the magazine said they'd still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-magazine-parting-ways-olivia-nuzzi-third-party-investigation-2024-10">mutually decided to go their separate ways</a>.</li><li>The vibecession, according to science. Americans are financially better off now than they were at the beginning of the pandemic. So why is everyone so concerned about inflation? A new study details the emotional toll of rising prices, which could explain <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-hidden-cost-work-salary-negotiation-boss-conflict-2024-10">why the vibes are so rank right now</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>These tech investors are trawling UC Berkeley <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-house-fund-uc-berkeley-perplexity-databricks-2024-10">to fund the next Perplexity or Databricks</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin's move to Florida means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ken-griffin-move-to-florida-selling-chicago-homes-at-loss-2024-10">losing millions on homes he never even lived in</a>.</li><li>McDonald's is the latest election battleground <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-is-latest-election-battleground-for-trump-and-harris-2024-10">for Trump and Harris</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>General Motors, GE, Verizon, and other companies report earnings.</li><li>The IMF World Economic Outlook is published.</li><li>NBA season begins with New York Knicks at Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

The future of the S&P 500 has everyone divided

A recent study suggests that <keyword id="11898020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cooking" source="Orion">cooking</keyword> with gas stoves poses a significant health risk due to the emission of harmful nanoparticles. These nanoparticles, significantly smaller than the width of a human hair, are easily inhaled and can bypass the body's natural defenses, potentially reaching deep into the respiratory system and other organs. The study's findings reveal that <keyword id="6664163" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gas-stove" source="Orion">gas stove</keyword> emissions can be 10 to 100 times higher in concentration than nanocluster aerosols found in car exhaust fumes on busy streets. This raises concerns, as these nanoparticles are linked to an increased risk of developing asthma and other respiratory illnesses. The research team, led by Professor <keyword id="20792870" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nusrat-jung" source="keywords">Nusrat Jung</keyword>, measured the emission of nanocluster aerosols during various cooking activities, including boiling water and grilling sandwiches. Their findings showed that even short cooking periods released trillions of these nanoparticles into the air, potentially impacting the entire household. While the study doesn't advocate for drastic measures like switching to historical steam appliances, it highlights the importance of using kitchen exhaust fans while cooking with gas stoves. Ideally, these fans should automatically activate to effectively remove harmful nanoparticles from the indoor environment. However, further research is needed to determine the exact effectiveness of exhaust fans in mitigating <keyword id="119851" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nanoparticle" source="Orion">nanoparticle</keyword> exposure. Additionally, the researchers call for recognising nanocluster aerosols as a distinct category of air pollutants in future regulations, emphasising the need for stricter controls to safeguard indoor air quality. The findings of this research have been published in PNAS Nexus.

Gas stoves create more nanoparticle pollution than a busy street with diesel and gas cars, study finds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indonesia said it drove a Chinese coast guard ship out of its waters in the South China Sea.</li><li>It said the Chinese ship disrupted an Indonesian oil and gas company surveying the waters.</li></ul>Indonesia said it deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from contested waters in the South China Sea.The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday.It said the Chinese ship disrupted survey work — often used to help locate oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed — by Indonesia's state-owned oil and natural gas company PT Pertamina.The interaction is another turn in a yearslong dispute over who owns the South China Sea, and gets to exploit its resources.China has staked out an aggressive claim to almost the whole sea, which its neighbors and most Western countries reject.The rival claims have been playing out in often-violent encounters between Chinese and other ships.In Monday's run-in, Indonesia said it dispatched a patrol ship dispatched to warn the Chinese ship away via radio.It said the ship insisted the waters were Chinese, prompting Indonesia to send a navy ship and an aircraft to the area."Together, the two Indonesian patrol ships carried out shadowing and succeeded in driving the CCG 5402 ship out of Indonesia's jurisdiction," it said.Shadowing means following another ship from a distance, a way of pressuring a rival vessel without direct confrontation.Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency shared <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4xRVvvgv58">aerial footage</a> of the operation on Wednesday, which it said showed the incident.Neither side immediately responded to requests for comment from Business Insider. As of early Thursday, China had yet to issue any public statement on the encounter.The incident escalates the dispute over the South China Sea, and highlights the richness of its resources.It is home to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/regions_of_interest/South_China_Sea/south_china_sea.pdf">estimated</a> 3.6 billion barrels of oil and other liquids and 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.China's claims overlap with neighboring countries, including Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter in June</a> between the Philippines and China turned violent, escalating into a physical fight involving bare fists, knives, and swords.The US Navy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-attempt-counter-china-south-china-sea-could-backfire-experts-2024-10">has made a point of operating in the South China Sea,</a> sailing in areas it regards as international waters.Malaysia and Vietnam are also pursuing oil-and-gas projects in the South China Sea, and running into Chinese opposition.The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://amti.csis.org/control-by-patrol-the-china-coast-guard-in-2023/">assessed</a> in March that the China Coast Guard in 2023 patrolled near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations for 221 days and near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations for 338 days.The encounters so far have stopped short of a true naval confrontation, which risks escalating into a devastating war.A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

Indonesia sent a Chinese ship packing, escalating a fight over oil and gas in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>GM's new EV charging hubs look exactly like gas stations.</li><li>The joint venture with EVgo will produce 400 new charging stalls nationwide.</li></ul>GM Energy and EVgo are deploying a new network of fast-charging hubs designed to fit in on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-charging-needs-to-improve-amenities-offerings-stores-2024-6">classic American road trip</a>.Several large hubs of roughly 20 fast chargers each are being installed in major metropolitan areas in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, New York, and Texas, for a total of 400 new charging stalls.These pull-through stalls will be protected by a lit canopy and built near retail locations and convenience stores with bathrooms and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-electric-car-charging-station-need-better-amenities-bathrooms-food-2023-8">other amenities</a>, according to GM Energy Vice President Wade Sheffer.If all of that sounds familiar, that's the idea. You might not even clock one of these<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gm-rivals-tesla-enabling-americans-energy-storage-evs-power-home-2022-10"> GM Energy</a>-EVgo hubs from the road as anything other than another gas station."If you're going on a longer trip — maybe you're out doing some shopping or thighs of that nature — we're offering ease, comfort, and reduction of that anxiety," Sheffer said in an interview with Business Insider. "You see it, you know it, you understand it."The first GM-EVgo flagship charging station is expected to open in 2025, the companies said in their Thursday announcement. This new project builds on the existing relationship between GM and the charging company, which has already resulted in more than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.evgo.com/press-release/evgo-and-general-motors-open-1-000th-dc-fast-charging-stall-as-part-of-metropolitan-charging-collaboration/">1,000 fast-charging stalls</a> nationwide.<h2 id="4b153d4a-4628-4f70-8054-e3b604684075">Solving the charging problem</h2>Charging outside the home has long been a pain point for EV drivers. There simply aren't enough places to plug in when you're far from home, which can lead to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-charging-range-improving-americans-still-dont-want-electric-cars-2024-9">dreaded range anxiety</a>.Efforts to patch holes in US charging infrastructure have resulted in a proliferation of plugs in the last several years. Since 2020, the number of charging stations in the US has more than doubled, and the Biden Administration has set aside $7.5 billion to fund 500,000 new EV charging stations by 2030.But the very existence of a plug only solves about half of the problem.Stalls are often tucked away in inconvenient places, many are not well-maintained, and the speed of charging fluctuates based on external factors like weather and battery technology.In fact, the charging experience has become so bad that some EV drivers are even considering <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-charging-is-so-bad-its-driving-owners-back-to-gas-2024-6">returning to gas-powered cars</a>.Early adopters in the EV segment were more willing to endure the charging challenges, but a new crop of more <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicle-misconceptions-about-the-ev-transition-market-sales-2024-5">practical electric car shoppers</a> will be less patient. These drivers are looking for a charging experience that more closely mirrors a stop at the gas station.The idea is to give EV drivers a safe and easy "charging in the wild" experience, Sheffer said."We're taking every opportunity to provide to our customers the most convenient, the safest and most simplistic way to all-in on the EV lifestyle," Sheffer said.

GM's new EV charging hubs look exactly like gas stations 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Neither Harris nor Trump outline specific disaster-relief policies on their website.</li><li>Their records, however, offer clues into how they'd deal with natural disasters as president.</li></ul>As another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-evacuation-empty-gas-station-full-hotels-gridlock-traffic-2024-10">hurricane</a> threatens to devastate swaths of the Southeast, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are under new scrutiny about their disaster response strategies. And though neither have specifically addressed how they'd approach disaster relief on their campaign websites, their environmental records offer clues into how they might deal with similar crises in the future.When Hurricane Helene bore down on six states, and with particular force in North Carolina and Georgia, both Harris and Trump said that the focus should be on providing aid, not politics. But the storm, which has killed more than 230 people and destroyed entire towns, has already crept into the presidential race. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-milton-tampa-florida-desantis-clean-disaster-dangerous-2024-10">Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida</a> on Wednesday night, only exacerbating the focus on environmental devastation."Disasters are always political," Thomas Birkland, a political scientist at North Carolina State University who studies the politics of national disasters, told Business Insider. He said that disaster relief is not, however, usually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">discussed during campaigns</a>.Timothy Kneeland, a professor at Nazareth University who studies politics and natural disasters, thinks that as hurricanes become more common, candidates should address them more explicitly."Having a short but clear statement on disasters should be part of any campaigner's policy," he wrote in a statement to BI.Both candidates have visited impacted areas, with Trump visiting Georgia on September 30 and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crises-middle-east-strike-hurricane-election-2024-10">Harris on October 2</a>. Republicans criticized Harris for attending a fundraising event in California when Helene struck, while she maintained that politicians should stay out of the most devastated areas as first responders begin their early work.In the days since Hurricane Helene, Trump has spread misinformation about the storm and response efforts, prompting the Federal Emergency Management Agency to publish a fact-checking page. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-relief-disinformation-misinformation-north-carolina-democrats-republicans-2024-10">Democrats and Republicans alike</a> say that the baseless claims are complicating <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-elon-musk-starlink-hurricane-helene-fema-2024-9">clean-up efforts</a>, and Harris has put out a digital ad slamming his former disaster relief. When he was president, Trump responded to several hurricanes. As with Hurricane Helene, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/376982/trump-hurricane-helene-fema-lies-debunked">publicized</a> misinformation. When Hurricane Dorian threatened Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, he incorrectly said that its path included Alabama as well. During a briefing in the Oval Office, he showed a map of the hurricane's path that included a Sharpie mark extending the storm's reach to Alabama. Trump also falsely claimed that the death toll from Hurricane Maria in 2017 was overblown, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/trump-hurricane-helene-natural-disasters/">Washington Post reported</a>.The former president occasionally threatened to hold back disaster funding over political spats. In 2020, for example, he floated withholding money from flood-ravaged Michigan because he was frustrated with absentee voting procedures in the state."A charitable interpretation would be mixed on crisis management," Birkland told BI about Trump's past responses to natural disasters. Kneeland said that storm victims and disaster experts largely criticized his handling of Hurricane Maria.During his time in office, Trump's administration rolled back more than 125 environmental rules, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">Washington Post</a> found, with a big focus on deregulating the fossil fuel industry. Trump's campaign has, according to Birkland, "been pretty clear that it disdains alternative fuels."Harris doesn't have a presidential record to back up her approach to disaster relief, but Birkland anticipates she'd take a relatively similar approach to President Joe Biden.As attorney general, Harris prosecuted oil companies that broke environmental rules. During her tenure as vice president, she voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which devoted $370 billion to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.But both Birkland and Kneeland told BI that Harris has become less aggressive about addressing climate change this election, likely in an attempt to court more moderate voters."Harris' position is a little murkier," Birkland said. "Harris has been clear that we should be doing things like alternative energy, but also supports, as of recent months, continued fossil fuel production. So it's kind of a both-and strategy."Presidents are somewhat limited in their disaster responses — both Kneeland and Birkland told BI that states and local governments lead disaster responses, with the federal government's assistance."Even when FEMA is on the ground they must work within the structure of existing state and local government," Kneeland said in his written statement. The responsibility is, he said, layered throughout the government.Regardless, all eyes are on how Harris and Trump respond to the twin storms — and the outcome of the election could theoretically hang in the balance. Kneeland said that disaster response can either greatly boost or doom an incumbent, pointing to instances as varied as Hurricane Betsey in 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.Though Birkland doesn't anticipate that the hurricanes will sway many voters, he said that even a small impact in swing states could matter."I think most people's minds are made up. I think that you're really dealing with the margins," he said. "On the other hand, this election is going to be won or lost on the margins, so that matters."

Hurricanes are taking the election by storm. Here's where Harris and Trump stand on natural disaster policies.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil and gas will remain the dominant energy sources in 2050, according to a new report from Exxon.</li><li>The company points to population growth and increasing energy needs among developing countries.</li></ul>Contrary to forecasts for oil demand to peak in the coming years, Exxon Mobil says oil and gas will remain the dominant sources of energy until the middle of this century. The oil major said in an outlook published this month that global oil demand will remain above 100 million barrels a day through 2050, even as the share of renewable powers grows. Broken down by source, it sees oil and gas accounting for 54% of the global energy mix by 2050, coal at 13%, nuclear energy at 6%, bioenergy at 10%, and renewables like wind, solar, and hydroelectric at 15%.That forecast stands in contrast to predictions from the International Energy Agency, which predicts that oil and gas demand will peak and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">plateau at 105.6 million barrels per day</a> by 2029.Exxon, the leading oil and gas company in the US, pointed to a rise in the global population to 10 billion in 2050, up from 8 billion today.With half of the world's population currently living below Exxon's "modern energy minimum"—having enough energy for housing, infrastructure, jobs, and mobility—the company projects a 15% increase in global energy use is necessary for reliable energy worldwide by 2050.That rise in energy use will be predominantly driven by a 25% increase among developing countries, whose current energy problems put inhabitants at risk from harmful cooking fuels, limited electricity, and poverty, the report says.Developed countries, on the other hand, will decrease energy use by 10% due to improved efficiency.The report says that even greater adoption of electric vehicles won't make a dent in oil and gas usage."What many don't realize is that making gasoline is but one relatively small use for oil," Exxon said in its report, adding that the majority of the world's oil is used for industrial processes like manufacturing, and for transportation like shipping, trucking, and air travel."These services are needed for modern life – and they also fuel future economic growth in the developing world," the report says.At the same time, the report predicts carbon emissions will drop for the first time in 2030. Last year, the company's annual report said the world likely won't meet the emission reduction targets that were set in the Paris Climate Accords in 2015 to curb the effects of climate change.

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