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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk signaled support for eroding the independence of the Federal Reserve, setting off alarm bells for some investors.</li><li>There's little appetite on Wall Street for undermining the central bank or ousting Jerome Powell.</li></ul>The federal official tasked with bringing down inflation is in the crosshairs of the world's richest man — and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-react-donald-trump-winning-election-silicon-valley-2024-11">Wall Street </a>isn't happy.On Friday, billionaire Elon Musk <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854783747264012792">endorsed</a> a suggestion to let the president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-interest-rate-decisions-restructure-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-wsj-2024-4">control the Federal Reserve</a>, which is run by Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed's mandate is to maintain the stability of the US economy, and giving the commander-in-chief control over it would erode the Fed's independence from politics.The president-elect's allies have been crafting a playbook for how the he could restructure the Fed and kick Powell out before his term ends, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-allies-federal-reserve-independence-54423c2f">Wall Street Journal</a> reported. With Musk backing the idea, some Wall Streeters are on edge about the possibility that once seemed remote, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/11/business/dealbook/fed-powell-trump.html">DealBook reported</a>."He seems to be someone who has the ear of the president," Mark Spindel, an investment manager who co-wrote a history of Fed independence, told Business Insider of Musk's influence. "But if anything, taking a more cinemascope view, I think trying to assign typically normative behavior to this Trump administration is going to be difficult."Many Wall Streeters are concerned that undermining Fed independence would undercut investors' faith in the stock and bond markets. While Trump has made comments about influencing or ousting Powell before, it would be more disruptive this time around as the central bank is in the delicate position of continuing to bring down inflation while maintaining the strength of the labor market."In general, there's no question that the market does not like any attempt to interfere, by the executive or congressional branches, in the independence of the Fed," Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told BI. He said that "virtually every economist" and most members of Congress value the bank's independence.In a recent comment about the Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/trump-defends-economic-agenda-saying-tariffs-will-fuel-growth?srnd=undefined">on October 15</a>, Trump acknowledged that "there was a question" over whether he could fire Powell, but also said, referring to interest rates, "I have a right to say I think you should go up or down a little bit."<h2 id="28718c82-37ad-47e1-9d78-d46334f3798e">Trump has a history of criticizing Powell</h2>When reporters <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-wont-resign-federal-reserve-step-down-trump-election-2024-11">asked Powell last week</a> whether he'd resign if Trump asked, the chair didn't mince any words: "No." He said that presidents are "not permitted under the law" to demote the head of the central bank. Powell's term ends in May of 2026.Trump's interest in Powell and the Fed seems to boil down to a desire to have a say in interest rates. His criticisms began when the Fed<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/12/why-trump-wont-fire-fed-chair-00188867?nname=playbook&amp;nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&amp;nrid=c30cfe99-2afa-44c9-9aa5-bc91c0ee7f6d&amp;nlid=630318"> raised rates </a>in 2018. In October of that year, Trump took a verbal axe to the central bank amid a stock market tumble, calling it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/11/trump-federal-reserve-841681">"crazy" and "out of control."</a>At the time, Trump was toying with the notion of firing Powell, despite significant legal questions about whether he could do so. Markets evidently hated the idea. Stocks had a terrible day, one of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-look-set-to-rally-market-baffled-by-mnuchin-call-2018-12">worst of Trump's presidency</a> before the pandemic.Trump continued to press the issue into 2019, firing off a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1171735692428419072">string of tweets</a> in February urging the "boneheads" at the Fed to bring "interest rates down to ZERO, or less." Central banks in Europe and Japan have brought interest rates below zero when their economies were particularly weak, but Trump made the call when the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/trump-fed-negative-interest-rates.html">U.S. economy was strong.</a> His aim was to weaken the US dollar, which is good for domestic exporters.The Fed did not heed his advice. In 2018, Fed leaders started preparing a legal strategy against Trump if he followed through, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/powell-trump-fed-firing-ac7088e6?mod=hp_lead_pos1">the Journal reported</a>.Trump continued his vendetta on the campaign trail this year. He said in February that he wouldn't reappoint Powell as Fed chair, before telling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview/">Bloomberg</a> in July that he would allow the chair to finish his term "especially if I thought he was doing the right thing." At a press conference on August 8, Trump suggested that presidents should have sway over interest rates."In my case, I made a lot of money," he said at the time. "I was very successful. And I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve – or the chairman."<h2 id="17a44db7-c99f-48e3-be83-6ba94b7e4436">Wall Street fears undermining the Fed would disrupt investors and create a political backlash</h2>Advisors close to Trump with market experience have cautioned against replacing Powell. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-advisor-trump-lutnick-schwarzman-warsh-federal-reserve-2024-11#scott-bessent-1">Scott Bessent</a>, one of the top contenders for Treasury Secretary, recently walked back a suggestion to nominate a "shadow" Fed chair, per the Journal. Peter Orszag, a former Obama administration official and CEO of financial advisory firm Lazard, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/11/11/lazard-ceo-peter-orszag-its-in-president-elect-trumps-interest-to-have-an-independent-fed.html">told Squawk Box</a> that any attempt to weaken the Fed "could be destabilizing."Wharton's Siegel said that given how many Americans own stocks, either directly or indirectly through retirement plans or other investments, the market disruption would have a broad impact and risk political backlash. <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">Gallup</a> found that 61% of Americans reported that they own stock as of May 2023, an uptick from past years.Both Siegel and Spindel anticipate that the markets themselves will serve as the ultimate guardrail against Musk's influence or any attempt to oust Powell and undermine the Fed. Trump is, Siegel said,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-winners-and-losers-markets-2024-11"> extremely attuned to the stock market</a> and uses it as a barometer of his success."Trump values the stock market and how well it does," he told BI. "And the stock market values the independence of the Fed. So if he wants the stock market to continue to go up, he will not interfere with the independence of the Fed."<h2 id="99a18510-af0a-4d0a-bbf8-0c84be5d54fd">The Fed's interest rate cuts may insulate it from Trump's scrutiny</h2>As of right now, Siegel and Spindel said that the Fed is doing what Trump wants: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">cutting rates. </a>There's room for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">policy disagreements down the line</a>, but both said that the president-elect is less likely to go after the central bank at the very moment it's working in his favor.Spindel compared the markets to a "governor," the tool engineers use to slow down a train. He said it might be the only guardrail, considering <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-pennsylvania-america-pac-donald-trump-harris-2024-11">Musk's influence</a>, a more MAGA-aligned Republican Congress, and the Supreme Court's expansion of the president's executive authority.Overall, Musk's newfound government influence is raising some alarm bells. The tech billionaire attempted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/maga-trump-senate-majority-leader-race-rick-scott-2024-11">influence Senate leadership</a>, hopped on the phone with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-calls-zelenskyy-erdogan-influence-2024-11">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy</a>, and scored a leadership role in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-doge-leaderboard-federal-government-spending-trump-2024-11">new advisory department</a>. Though Siegel doubts that Trump will actually undermine the central bank anytime soon, he was disappointed to see Musk weighing in on macroeconomic policies he doesn't typically discuss."It's outside the realm that I think Trump wanted him to exercise, which had to do with the efficiency of government operations," Siegel said. Still, he's confident that the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">markets hold more sway </a>than Musk, at least for now.

The fight over Jerome Powell puts Elon Musk at odds with Wall Street

For the first time since 202o, the US <keyword id="19904332" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve">Federal Reserve</keyword> cut down the benchmark <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> by 50 basis points , bringing the target rate range to 4.75%-5%, from its previous scope of 5.25% to 5.5%. The decision, which was taken 11:1, was not unanimous, a striking departure from all other unanimous interest rate decisions taken by Fed over the last 2 years. Per chairman <keyword id="20058769" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jerome-powell" source="keywords">Jerome Powell</keyword>, the decision was taken in light of easing inflationary pressures in the US economy, which came down to 2.53% this month, as opposed to 2.89% a month prior, and 3.67% last year. "In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective", the FOMC committee highlighted in its statement. Signaling more aggressive rate cuts going ahead, Fed projections implied an additional 50 bps rate cut from current levels within 2024, with rate trims going as high as 100 bps in 2025, and another 50 bps in 2026. Notably, last month, Powell had strongly hinted towards a rate cut, saying it was "time for policy to be adjusted". Over the last few years, high interest rates had made home equity loans and credit card interest rates super expensive. In March 2022, which was the first time Fed hiked interest, rates on home equity loans stood at 5.96%%. This has jumped to 8.49% in September 2o24. At 20.78%, credit card interest rates have also been sky-high, swelling by over 400 basis points since March 2022. Indian markets stay flat On Wednesday, Indian equity markets maintained a cautious outlook, with <keyword id="19950208" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE-Sensex" source="keywords">BSE Sensex</keyword> and Nifty50 dipping by 0.16% each to close the day in red. During the day, both Sensex and Nifty scaled record highs of 83,326.38 points, and 25.377.55 points respectively. Most market experts anticipated a 25-bps rate cut, but with Fed delivering a mammoth-size cut, the focus is now set to shift from inflation to unemployment, with the rate cut offering much-needed, immediate relief to US economy, which has, for long, been battling high borrowing costs. Per Fed officials, unemployment is set to rise to 4.4% this year, up from its present rate of 4.2%, as recorded in August. Per Bloomberg reports, shortly after the announcement, gold prices also jumped to record highs. The prices of yellow metal were already hovering near all-time highs ahead of the announcement. A rate cut pushes to weaken the greenback, which is what gold is priced in internationally. This makes bullion cheaper, pushing up its demand globally.

Fed trims interest rates by 50 basis points, gold prices touch record-high

Around the world, all eyes will be on the US <keyword id="19904332" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve" source="keywords">Federal Reserve</keyword> meeting, which starts today, and will announce changes in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword>, if any, after concluding its two-day meet tomorrow i.e. on 18th September. Most experts are anticipating a 25 basis point <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>, while some suggest a sharper, 50 basis point rate cut might also be possible. According to the <keyword id="19950992" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-FedWatch" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CME FedWatch" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="CME FedWatch">CME FedWatch</keyword> tool, there is an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. However, the firmer-than-expected core inflation reading will perhaps make it more difficult for Fed chairman <keyword id="20058769" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jerome-Powell" source="keywords">Jerome Powell</keyword> to justify a 50 basis point cut in September. However, as Gaurav Garg from Lemonn, a trading and investing platform explains, “a bold 50-basis-points (bps) rate cut could ignite optimism leading to weaker dollar and further inflows into emerging markets like India, while a cautious 25 bps move may trigger disappointment, with markets currently pricing increasing odds for a bigger cut”. Historically, a rate cut fuels optimism in the domestic markets, as it reduces corporate borrowing costs and increases consumer spending power. Lower interest rates also implies cheaper borrowing, which is advantageous for homeowners looking for lower mortgage rates. “The reduction in borrowing costs may promote demand in the home market as well as encourage refinancing activity”, says Swapnil Aggarwal, Director, VSRK Capital “However, the market’s reaction will depend on the motivations behind the Fed’s decision. If the rate cut is in response to concerns about a slowing economy or rising unemployment, the positive market effect could be muted. But if the Fed is cutting rates due to low inflation and a stable growth outlook, markets may rally in response to the more favorable borrowing environment”, Agarwal continued. After this, the Fed would convene between November 5-7. Two key employment reports, which are due before the Fed announces its November outcome, are likely to impact this. However, as experts see it, there is a slight leaning towards a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with the probability currently at 52.4%, as per CME FedWatch For December, the likelihood of another 50 basis point rate cut increases significantly, with the probability standing at 80.4%. “Given the higher probability, if November sees only a 25 basis point cut, it is likely that a 50 basis point cut will follow in December”, says Alex Volkov, a market analyst at VT Markets.

Fed meeting starts today, rate cut on the cards. Here’s what experts are saying

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped Thursday as traders focused on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.</li><li>Powell said the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, and reiterated the strength of the US economy.</li></ul>Indexes ended lower on Thursday, with the election rally fizzling out as traders digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assessed the latest inflation data. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell more than 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 200 points. The 10-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, remained nearly flat at 4.447%, hovering close to its highest level since July.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,949.17, down 0.6% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,750.86, down 0.47% (-207.33 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,107.65, down 0.64%</li></ul>The slide comes after Powell signaled the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates while the US economy remains on solid footing. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said during prepared remarks at an event in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."Powell added the US has had the best domestic growth of any major economy, and emphasized the strength of the labor market. He said the October jobs report's slowing job growth was largely due to storm-related damage.Powell's comments come as investors seek hints of the Fed's intended easing path after a 25 basis point cut last week. Trump's election win has sparked worries that inflation could rise again under his proposals for broad tariffs and mass deportations, which could cause the Fed to pause rate hikes, economists say.Traders expect the central bank to cut another 25 basis points at its December meeting before pausing in January, according to the CME <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">FedWatch tool</a>.Powell's comments also follow the latest inflation reading which shows wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.The data was in line with expectations but showed inflation remains somewhat sticky, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4%.The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in the month and 3.1% year-over-year.Meanwhile, jobless claims data on Thursday, showed weekly claims dropped to their lowest since May, falling to 217,000 last week. That marks a 4,000 decline from the week prior.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Investors are underestimating how deep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-2025-trump-tariff-inflation-growth-2024-11">rate cuts will be in 2025</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/electric-vehicle-stocks-trump-end-ev-tax-credit-tesla-rivian-2024-11?_gl=1*1794use*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjM3LjIyLjAuMA..">EV makers slid</a> on report Trump wants to scrap the EV tax credit.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/disney-stock-price-3q-earnings-streaming-profit-guidance-cruise-parks-2024-11?_gl=1*6r1dtf*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjUxLjguMC4w">Disney stock surged</a> as rare three-year forecast sees strong profit growth ahead.</li><li>China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-supply-crude-prices-us-production-china-opec-2024-11?_gl=1*1he4945*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTYxNjYwOS40MTAuMS4xNzMxNjE3NjcwLjYwLjAuMA..">surplus</a> of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures were up. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate crude</a> rose 0.3% to $68.63 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.3% to $72.48 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose fell 0.5% to $2,572 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury was nearly flat at 4.447%.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was down 1.4% to $87,531. </li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes fall as Powell says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose ahead of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's key speech at Jackson Hole.</li><li>Powell is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy and the path of interest rates at 10 am ET.</li></ul>US stocks edged higher on Friday ahead of a key speech from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.Major averages were rising as trading kicked off, while bond yields edged lower. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 3.839%Powell will give his annual speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at 10 am ET, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-surprise-stock-market-jackson-hole-speech-preview-2024-8">investors will be closely listening for clues</a> as to how many interest rate cuts the Fed may implement in the short term.Recent comments from Fed President Susan Collins said that rate cuts from the Fed should be "gradual" and that she is mainly focused on "preserving that healthy labor market while we continue to bring inflation down."Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Friday that "we are close to being ready to cut rates," adding that "we can't wait until inflation is back down to 2% to alter the policy rate."The CME FedWatch Tool suggests the Fed will launch its first interest rate cut at its September FOMC meeting and ultimately cut rates by nearly 100 basis points by the end of the year.But <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jerome-powell-surprise-stock-market-jackson-hole-speech-preview-2024-8">all eyes are on Powell</a> as his words generally have a strong impact on the stock market, and some market experts are concerned heading into the speech. "We have been voicing concerns ahead of tomorrow's speech for a few reasons. For starters, the S&amp;P 500's track record after the past few Jackson Hole conferences has been uninspiring," Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said in a note on Thursday.The past three Jackson Hole speeches have been followed by an average one-month loss of about 4% for the S&amp;P 500, according to Sosnick."That may be attributable as much to September seasonality as it is to the speeches themselves, but those speeches indeed played a role in setting the tone for the weeks that follow," Sosnick said.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,601.02, up 0.55%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,898.93, up 0.46% (+186.15 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,750.04, up 0.74% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-scam-kansas-bank-pig-butchering-jail-prison-embezzlement-fraud-2024-8">A crypto scam crushed a Kansas bank and got its CEO sent to jail for 24 years.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/lucara-stock-price-soars-mining-firm-discovers-2nd-largest-diamond-2024-8">A small mining firm saw its stock soar after it discovered the world's second-largest diamond.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-labor-unemployment-claudia-sahm-jeremy-siegel-2024-8">Two economists explain why the Fed should cut interest rates more than expected next month.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 1.66% to $74.22 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 1.41% to $78.31 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was higher by 0.80% to $2,536.90 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 3.839%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 1.05% to $61,018.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole

<keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, the Governor of <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), on October 26, received award for A+ grade in <keyword id="23702898" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Central-Bank-Report-Cards" source="keywords">Central Bank Report Cards</keyword> 2024, for the second consecutive year. The award, presented by <keyword id="22224722" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-Finance" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Global Finance" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Global Finance">Global Finance</keyword> in <keyword id="21459434" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Washington-D-C-" source="keywords">Washington D.C.</keyword>, USA, recognised RBI Governor's excellent performance and effective leadership in steering India's apex bank through complex economic challenges. In a social media post on X, RBI posted, "Governor @DasShaktikanta received the award for A+ grade in Central Bank Report Cards 2024, for the second consecutive year. Presented by Global Finance at an event held today in Washington DC, USA." The Central Bank Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as inflation control, economic growth goals, currency stability and interest rate management. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. Along with Das, Denmark's Christian Kettel Thomsen and Switzerland's Thomas Jordan were also accorded an A+ grade. Brazil's Roberto Campos Neto, Chile's Rosanna Costa, Harvesh Kumar Seegolam of Mauritius, Morocco's Abdellatif Jouahri, South Africa's Lesetja Kganyago and Sri Lanka's Nadalal Weerasinghe were amongst those who received the <keyword id="22446364" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="A-grade" source="keywords">A grade</keyword>. European Union's Christine Lagarde was given an A- grade. "After a difficult 2023, when geopolitical pressures gathered with tight monetary conditions to create a near-stagflationary environment in the eurozone, the central bank has managed to inch much closer to its 2% target with successive consumer price index (CPI) readings under 3% since February of this year, down to 2.4% in August", Global Finance noted on Lagarde's tenure. <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> Chairman Jerome Hayden Powell received an A- grade. Per the Global Finance website, "The Fed has debated in excruciating, and at times confusing, detail throughout this year when and whether to cut its benchmark rate from a 23-year high of 5.5%, a level held since July 2023. This September, the Fed finally turned the monetary ship toward a policy of easing, with a 50-basis point cut, which was at the higher end of forecasts." "Prior to the rate cut, economists agreed that confusion in the markets was a case of bad communication by the Fed, but Powell’s overall handling of policy has been praised. It is difficult to find much fault with the Fed’s approach to policymaking over the past year. The Fed has appropriately changed its tone in response", it continued. However, it also noted that more-substantial easing in the following months will be crucial to avoid a policy mistake and to secure Powell’s legacy. Powell's term as second-time chair of the Fed Reserve ends on May 15, 2026.

Shaktikanta Das receives award for A+ grade in Central Bank Report Cards 2024 in USA

Mumbai, The rupee appreciated 6 paise to close at 83.13 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday, supported by a firm trend in domestic equities and a weak greenback amid rising appetite for riskier assets. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.07 against the greenback. The unit hit an intra-day high of 83.04 and a low of 83.16. The local unit finally settled at 83.13 (provisional) against the dollar, higher by 6 paise from its previous close of 83.19. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.15 per cent higher at 103.54. Though the US dollar is trading on a higher note, it has retreated from its elevated level of 104 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25-5.5 per cent range. <keyword id="20859282" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed-chair" source="keywords">Fed Chair</keyword>, <keyword id="20058769" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jerome-powell" source="keywords">Jerome Powell</keyword> stuck to his previous forecast of three rate cuts in 2024. He revised growth projections for 2024 to 2.1 per cent from 1.8 per cent earlier. This led to a sharp rally in global risk assets, said Anuj <keyword id="19982448" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="choudhary" source="keywords">Choudhary</keyword>, <keyword id="19955353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="research-analyst" source="keywords">Research Analyst</keyword>, <keyword id="19952951" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sharekhan" source="keywords">Sharekhan</keyword> by BNP Paribas. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.20 per cent to USD 85.78 per barrel. "We expect the rupee to gain slightly on the rise in global risk sentiments and weakness in the US dollar. However, firm crude oil prices may cap sharp gains," Choudhary said. He further noted that traders may take cues from PMI, weekly unemployment claims, current account and existing home sales data from the US. "Market participants may also look forward to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy decision. BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged but investors will watch out for the governor's speech for further guidance on its rate cut expectations," Choudhary added. On the domestic equity market front, <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> advanced 539.50 points, or 0.75 per cent, to close at 72,641.19 points. The Nifty rose 172.85 points, or 0.79 per cent, to settle at 22,011.95 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Wednesday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,599.19 crore, according to exchange data.

Rupee rises 6 paise to close at 83.13 against US dollar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell strongly emphasized labor market data in his Jackson Hole speech.</li><li>But Powell's speech was too narrow, and could be "misleading the public," economist Adam Posen said.</li></ul>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell harped on recent labor market data in a short, 16-minute speech at Jackson Hole last week, in which he acknowledged that the central bank was about to pivot on monetary policy as it took in weaker labor market data. However, economist Adam Posen said on a Bloomberg podcast on Friday that Powell's speech was too limited and failed to address other economic factors, which could muddle the overall economic picture."The labor market is first among equals in terms of determinants of inflation in the business cycle, but…there are other things," Posen said, pointing to productivity growth, fiscal policy, supply shocks, and trade policy."Acting as though these other factors don't matter, that all that matters is the labor market, I think is misleading," Posen added.While the labor market isn't as hot as it was about a year and a half ago, when employment hit a post-pandemic low of 3.4%, the US is still seeing some positive data, Posen said.Labor force participation is at a multi-year high, and while unemployment rose to 4.3% in July in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">surprise increase</a>, it's still at a level that economists consider to be full employment.Posen said those numbers don't seem to imply a pending recession."This again is why I would like a little bit more complex, nuanced, broader discussion by the chair," rather than solely focusing on the last few months of labor market and inflation data, Posen said.Posen likened the style of Powell's speech to the brief, no-nonsense address he gave in 2022, though, at that time, his curt approach was more warranted, Posen said."Two years ago, Powell gave what I consider a perfect speech. It was a rifle shot. It was only eight minutes long, and all he was saying was they're going to keep going until the inflation beast is slain," Posen said. But now, Posen thinks Powell could have touched on a wider timeframe rather than just focusing on the next few months and could have mentioned a few key themes one would expect from a Fed conference."In the context we are now, where we're not facing a crisis, where you're basically doing risk management over the next couple of months, which means just trying to balance things, having the rifle shot is, to me, misleading the public. It's not a good speech," Posen added.Powell didn't discuss how the economy got to where it is now ("the victory lap," according to Posen) or how interest rates can change the course of the economy, Posen said.Posen said the speech's focus on such a short time frame is both a result of politics—the Fed does not want to be seen as partisan ahead of the presidential election in November—and of "a fundamental change" in the Fed's philosophy. Investors are pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's September 17-18 policy meeting, with lower odds of a 50 basis point cut, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.The next jobs report is scheduled for September 6

Why Jerome Powell may regret his 'rifle shot' Jackson Hole speech, according to economist Adam Posen

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been a vocal critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's interest-rate hikes.</li><li>Friday's weak jobs report suggests the Fed may have kept interest rates high for too long.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/elizabeth-warren">Sen. Elizabeth Warren</a> is grilling Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on social media following <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-july-labor-market-economic-data-2024-7">Friday's weak jobs report</a> that showed a jump in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in hiring.In an X post on Friday, the Massachusetts senator said that Powell "made a serious mistake not cutting rates" in light of the jobs report."He's been warned over and over again that waiting too long risks driving the economy into a ditch," she said. "The jobs data is flashing red."The senator added: "Powell needs to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now — not wait 6 weeks."A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-recession-outlook-indicator-triggered-unemployment-rate-jobs-report-2024-8">unemployment rate</a> unexpectedly rose between June and July from 4.1% to 4.3%.The US also slowed down hiring to 114,000 jobs, missing the consensus expectation of 176,000, Business Insider reported. Warren, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly criticized Powell for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-staying-higher-for-longer-no-cuts-powell-inflation-2024-5">interest-rate hikes</a> the Fed has made 11 times since March 2022.The current rate of 5.3% is a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-fed-cut-interest-rates-powell-fomc-inflation-relief-2024-4">23-year high</a>.During a committee hearing in March 2023, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elizabeth-warren-powell-getting-people-fired-interst-rate-hikes-recession-2023-3">Warren told Powell</a> that his rate hikes would cost Americans their jobs."So Chair Powell, if you could speak directly to the 2 million hard working people who have decent jobs today, who you're planning to get fired over the next year, what would you say to them?" Warren asked at the time. "How would you explain your view that they need to lose their jobs?"Powell responded that inflation was "hurting the working people of this country badly."The Fed Chair said on Wednesday that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-likely-september-federal-reserve-holds-steady-july-2024-7">rate cut</a> "could be on the table" when the Fed meets September 17-18."We're getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate, but we're not quite at that point," Powell said.

Elizabeth Warren says Jerome Powell needs to come back from vacation and cut interest rates now

<ul><li>US stocks were down on Monday after Fed Chair Powell downplayed the idea rate cuts are imminent.</li><li>Powell told "60 Minutes" that regarding inflation: "the job is not quite done."</li><li>He said it would be prudent to "give it some time" to confirm inflation is moving in the right direction.</li></ul>US stocks edged lower on Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told "60 Minutes" on Sunday that the central bank's key task in reigning in inflation is not yet done.Powell said cutting interest rates too soon poses a risk because "the job is not quite done" in taming inflation."The prudent thing to do is to, is to just give it some time and see that the data continue to confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way," Powell said.Those comments dashed investor hopes of an interest rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, with the probability of a rate cut falling to 17.5% on Monday from nearly 50% last week, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Corporate earnings continue to roll in, with about half of S&amp;P 500 companies having reported results. Of the 231 companies that have reported so far, 81% are beating profit estimates by a median of 7%, according to data from Fundstrat.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 4,946.40, down 0.24% </li></ul><ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,519.36, down 0.35% (-135.74 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 15,593.09, down 0.23% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today: <ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-csrc-vows-save-stock-market-crash-investors-not-convinced-2024-2#:~:text=China%20Securities%20Regulatory%20Commission%20vowed,trillion%20since%20peaking%20in%202021.">Chinese stocks dropped in a volatile session of trades</a> after the China Securities Regulatory Commission said on Sunday it would prevent "abnormal market fluctuations."</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-china-tariffs-economy-stock-market-crash-goldman-sachs-2024-2">Chinese investors aren't just worried about China's faltering economy</a> — they're also fretting about Donald Trump's potential return to the White House, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-elon-musk-net-worth-wealth-amazon-tesla-stock-2024-2#:~:text=Jeff%20Bezos%20is%20not%20far,the%20wealth%20rankings%20this%20year.">Jeff Bezos is just $8 billion away from overtaking Elon Musk</a> to become the world's wealthiest person after the sharp decline in Tesla stock this year.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil fell 0.19% to $72.14 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 0.08% to $77.39 a barrel. </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> declined 0.90% to $2,035.30 per ounce. </li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 4.13%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed 1.61% to $43,257. </li></ul>

You Searched For "US Fed chief Jerome Powell" and got 12 results

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