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Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<ul><li>Five states voted on some form of change to the minimum wage in Tuesday's US elections.</li><li>Missouri approved a raise, while Massachusetts and Arizona rejected changing how tipped workers are paid.</li><li>Results in Alaska and California were unclear early Wednesday.</li></ul>While economic issues were a major focus of this year's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11" target="_blank">US presidential election</a>, several states put pay directly on the ballot, and minimum-wage workers in at least one state are now set to get a raise after voting concluded Tuesday. Missouri, Massachusetts, California, and Alaska all had some form of referendum on their ballots on whether to hike the minimum wage paid by employers. In Massachusetts, voters were asked whether to gradually increase the share of tipped workers' pay that employers must provide, while voters in the three other states were presented with proposals for straightforward minimum-wage increases. In Arizona, voters weighed in on whether to decrease the tipped minimum wage — provided employers could show workers' wages would stay $2 above the state minimum when accounting for tips. Shortly after polls closed in Missouri, it was clear that the referendum there had passed. Voters in Massachusetts and Arizona rejected their proposals, and California and Alaska were still awaiting their results as of early Wednesday. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Missouri</h2>In Missouri, voters opted to raise the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. Per The New York Times, roughly 58% of Missouri voters had supported the measure as of early Wednesday, with some votes still uncounted. The measure, <a href="https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures#:~:text=Official%20Ballot%20Title%0AProposition,Proposed%20by%20Initiative%20Petition" target="_blank">Proposition A</a>, is set to first raise the minimum wage to $13.75 an hour from $12.30 on January 1 and then increase it again to $15 an hour on January 1, 2026. Starting in 2027, the wage is set to be pegged to inflation. The measure also mandates that employers give their workers an hour of paid leave for every 30 hours they work. Missouri separately voted in favor of former President Donald Trump, who said he'd "consider" a minimum-wage hike if it proved beneficial for small businesses. His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, had pledged support for raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour from $7.25. A group of Missouri business owners in favor of the measure praised Proposition A's passage on Tuesday evening. "Proposition A will strengthen Missouri's workforce and businesses," David Burmeister, the owner of Midwest Pasta Co. in St. Louis, said in a press release. "Raising the minimum wage will increase people's ability to shop at our business and local businesses across Missouri. We've seen that paying better wages is better business. Employees are happier at work and do a better job." <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Massachusetts</h2>In <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/divisions/elections/publications/information-for-voters-24/quest_5.htm" target="_blank">Massachusetts</a>, employers won't be required to gradually raise tipped workers' base pay to match the state's minimum wage. The measure failed, with the Times reporting at the time of publication that 64% of voters had rejected it out of the votes counted so far. The measure, which would have begun taking shape on January 1, wouldn't have actually raised the legal minimum wage for tipped workers but instead would have raised the share of that minimum wage that employers were required to provide. Currently, Massachusetts employers are required to pay tipped workers a base pay of $6.75 an hour and then make up the difference if those workers' total pay counting tips is less than $15 an hour. The failed measure would have ultimately required employers to directly pay tipped workers the state's full minimum wage by 2029. <h2 style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Arizona</h2>In Arizona, voters rejected a measure that would have let employers reduce their base pay for tipped workers. <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/alispdfs/Council/2024BallotMeasures/adopted%20analysis%20Proposition%20138%20SCR1040%20-%202024.pdf" target="_blank">Proposition 138</a> proposed allowing employers to pay tipped workers up to 25% less than the state's minimum wage, with the corollary that employers would need to establish their workers were still making the minimum wage plus an additional $2 an hour when accounting for tips. The Times reported that out of the votes counted so far, nearly 76% of voters had rejected the measure. That means that employers in Arizona can continue to pay their tipped workers $3 less than the current hourly minimum wage as long as workers are still making at least the minimum wage when accounting for tips. Correction: November 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story included a sentence that incorrectly described the result of the ballot measure in Massachusetts. The system in which tipped workers are required to be paid at least $15 an hour through a combination of tips and a $6.75 hourly wage is the current system in Massachusetts, not a proposal on the ballot measure that voters rejected. The story was also updated to clarify the ballot results. The percentages attributed to The New York Times reflected the latest tally as votes were being counted, not New York Times projections for the final result. The specific figure of 76% in Arizona referred to the share of voters at the time who had rejected the ballot measure there, not the margin by which voters rejected the measure.

Workers in Missouri can look forward to raises after minimum-wage boosts passed

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US dollar is likely to be the first asset to signal what markets think the election result will be.</li><li>Strong liquidity and global 24-hour trading activity make the dollar a reliable indicator.</li></ul>The US dollar might be the most important asset to watch for a potential read on the US election results as the votes are tallied this week.Raymond James' chief investment strategist David Zervos said that the US dollar will be the first asset to telegraph the likely winner as markets digest the implications of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris presidency. In an interview with CNBC, Zervos said the dollar "will be the most liquid and the most transparent messaging to what we are getting markets to do because that's where people could put money to work fast."He highlighted that the US dollar is traded 24/7 with massive liquidity from trading parties around the world. Therefore, as election results roll in during the late hours of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, the dollar will likely be the first asset class to move on the results.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">dollar is seen as rising under a potential Trump presidency,</a> as his tariff proposals would likely raise interest rates, which in turn would lead to a stronger dollar.On the flip side, a falling US dollar would likely suggest that a Kamala Harris victory is reflected in the election results because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">interest rates are seen as more likely to continue falling under a Harris administration,</a> putting downward pressure on the dollar.As for how to get a read on who markets think will win, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">the US dollar index </a>will be a strong gauge of how traders are digesting the early election results. The index measures the dollar against a basket of other major currencies and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">has rallied over the past month</a> as former President Donald Trump gained momentum in the polls and in betting markets.Beyond the dollar index, Zervos said it would be important to watch moves in <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-cny">the dollar relative to the Chinese renminbi</a>. "Dollar-China has been a big trade because people saw that as a real Trump winning trade, meaning he's going to go hard on China," Zervos said. "That's got a lot of crowded positioning in it. I'd be watching dollar-China very closely overnight," Zervos said.Zervos expects a relief rally in risk assets as uncertainty surrounding the election begins to fade, assuming the results are decisive and known relatively soon."I think people really want to see smoothness here, then we can just see risk assets do better, we could see credit do better. We could see the panicky trades that people might have put on get pulled off," Zervos said.Ultimately, Zervos said he'll change his stock and bond investments based on the dollar's reaction to the election results."We watch the dollar, that's our first indication of where the repositioning is taking place and then we can feed that back into bonds and stocks and different sectors," Zervos said.

Why the US dollar is the most important asset to watch as the election results come in

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were slightly higher Tuesday as Wall Street looked ahead to the result of the US election.</li><li>Some Trump trades edged up Tuesday morning after being hit on Monday by rising odds of a Kamala Harris win. </li></ul>US stocks rose on Tuesday as investors gear up for the result of the presidential election.Voters are heading to the polls to conclude the dramatic race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The candidates are virtually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">tied in the polls nationally and in many swing states</a>, setting the stage for a period of uncertainty as vote counts come down to the wire. Though new momentum from Harris over the weekend weighed on the Trump trade on Monday, Treasury yields, bitcoin, and the Trump Media stock have all moved up on the day of the vote as markets position for a potential victory for the former president. Whoever does end up in the White House will have an impact on the trajectory of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">the market</a>, as each candidate has promised sharply contrasting views on everything from trade to tax policy. Immediately following the election, Wall Street will turn to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a 96% chance the Fed cuts its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of the meeting on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,736.46, up 0.43% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,868.85, up 0.18% (+74.25 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,304.48, up 0.67%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-fed-rate-cut-forecast-jumbo-unemployment-labor-market-citi-2024-11">Another half-point rate cut could come this year amid job market weakness</a>, according to a Citi economist.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/crypto-political-spending-elections-2026-midterms-coinbase-fairshake-super-pac-2024-11?_gl=1*177ibwg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgxMjgwNy43OTUuMS4xNzMwODE1NTI0LjIuMC4w">The crypto industry is already eyeing the 2026 midterms with $78 million geared for supportive candidates.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-betting-trump-win-losing-money-harris-odds-shift-2024-11">The Polymarket whale betting on Trump is down $3 million after Harris' odds jumped over the weekend.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-ai-gpu-chips-demand-artificial-intelligence-debt-investing-cloud-2024-11">Chip fever has created an $11 billion debt market backed by Nvidia's AI-enabling GPUs.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil climbed 0.38% to $71.76 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.35% to $75.34 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased by 0.30% to $2,754.1 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield gained 1 basis point to 4.327%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> rose 1.97% to $68,814.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes rise as Wall Street awaits the result of the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Stocks jumped on Tuesday, led by tech as Palantir stock helped the Nasdaq climb 1.4%. </li><li>Traders are eyeing the result of the US presidential election. </li></ul>US indexes surged Tuesday as a jump in tech stocks pulled indexes higher as traders headed toward the end of the US presidential election. A record earnings report from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pltr-stock">Palantir</a> helped push tech higher, with the stock soaring 23.5% to close at $51.15. The data software company delivered a record profit while showcasing high demand for its artificial intelligence products. Other tech leaders also ended higher, with Nvidia jumping almost 3% such as Nvidia and Tesla closing 3.5% higher.Nvidia's rally on Tuesday helped the chip titan surpass Apple as the world's most valuable company by market cap, at $3.42 trillion versus Apple's valuation of $3.38 trillion. The S&amp;P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by almost 430 points.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,782.76, up 1.23%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,221.88, up 1.02% (+427.28 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,439.17, up 1.43%</li></ul>As voters flocked to the polls, Wall Street is on edge for the possibility of an uncertain election outcome following the conclusion of the vote.Some popular Trump trades rose throughout the day, with bitcoin and shares of Trump Media rising in anticipation of a potential Republican win. Treasurys yields edged slightly lower, with the 10-year bond dipping two basis points to 4.289%.On Wednesday, Wall Street's focus will quickly shift from the presidential race to the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html"> Futures markets</a> indicate a 98.2% chance the central bank cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday.Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/super-micro-computer-stock-delisting-risk-this-month-november-smci-2024-11?_gl=1*567hsv*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MDQzLjU5LjAuMA..">Super Micro Computer faces delisting from the Nasdaq as it comes up against a compliance deadline. </a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-stock-market-outlook-best-case-scenario-congress-gridlock-2024-11?_gl=1*11y3l5j*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTIxLjYwLjAuMA..">A divided Congress would be the best-case outcome for stocks, JPMorgan says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/election-bear-market-us-economy-stock-market-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-11?_gl=1*1rj5c60*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM3OTgxLjYwLjAuMA..">There's an 18% chance that stocks are heading toward a post-election bear market,</a> Goldman Sachs says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-to-buy-recession-investing-strategy-defensive-economy-outlook-money-2024-11?_gl=1*1936m0t*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MTM0LjYwLjAuMA..">A warning signal in the economy is telling investors to load up on defensive stocks, research firm says.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-gas-ukraine-war-budget-moscow-crude-prices-2024-11?_gl=1*1yvzx3u*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDgzNzI1MS44MDEuMS4xNzMwODM4MzA1LjYwLjAuMA..">Volatile crude prices send Russian oil revenue down 28% in October.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 0.99% to $72.18 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 0.81% to $75.69 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased by 0.18% to $2,751.2 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dipped two basis points to 4.289%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> jumped 2.82% to $69,401.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Tech leads indexes higher as markets head toward the result of the US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Polls close Tuesday night, but it's unclear when we'll know the results of the 2024 election.</li><li>Some states' election laws allow for some votes to be counted before polls close; others do not.</li></ul>After nearly two years of campaigning, two assassination attempts, and an unprecedented decision by the sitting president to drop out of the race, the 2024 US presidential election is coming to an end.Polls have closed in some places, and results will begin rolling in soon.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-states-sun-belt-polls-2024-11">final week</a> of the race between Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> was all about outrage, with each candidate trying to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-outrage-garbage-mark-cuban-puerto-rico-2024-11">amplify controversial comments</a> from the other's camp to try to shake up a race in which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-swing-state-polls-photo-finish-2024-11">polls remained incredibly tight</a> to the end.The election is expected to come down to just seven states that polling has indicated either candidate could win: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Each state has different election laws, and some are expected to take longer than others to count the vote. If the race is as tight as polling suggests, there's a very good chance we won't know who won the election until sometime after Tuesday night.Here's the latest — and what to watch for.<h2 id="15729b0a-41c1-4bdf-969a-d43a46391721">When we'll know the results in each state</h2>In some states, we may know the results pretty quickly. In others, counting may take days. Poll closing times listed below are in Eastern Time.7 p.m. — Polls close in Georgia, where a winner could be declared by late Tuesday night. Though the state took days to process mail-in ballots in 2020, a new law allowed election officials to begin tabulating those votes Tuesday morning, speeding up the process.7:30 p.m. — Polls close in North Carolina, which has historically counted votes quickly. A winner could be declared Tuesday night.8 p.m. — Polls close in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Michigan is expected to count ballots relatively quickly and could announce a result Tuesday night or early Wednesday.But the Pennsylvania count is expected to take days. That's because the election is expected to be so close in the Keystone State and because a big chunk of the electorate votes by mail, and officials can't begin to count those votes until polls close.In 2020, most news outlets didn't call Pennsylvania until Saturday — at which point Joe Biden became president-elect.9 p.m. — Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. We may not know the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/22/politics/vote-counting-delays-election-states/index.html">results in Wisconsin</a> until Wednesday, a state election official told CNN in September, in part because of the amount of time it takes to count absentee ballots in the heavily Democratic city of Milwaukee.Like Pennsylvania, Arizona's vote count is expected to take days, given that most of the electorate is expected to vote by mail. Initial results probably won't be available until 10 p.m.10 p.m. — Polls close in Nevada, which could also take days to count, given that most of the state is expected to vote by mail.<h2 id="7329bb1b-3a45-4204-887d-e708e935be38">How to read the Electoral College math</h2>The US uses the Electoral College to elect a president. Each state gets a set number of votes that correlates with its population — if a state has two US senators and three House members, it has five electoral votes.The winner must get at least 270 electoral votes — a majority of the 538 total. In the vast majority of states, either Harris or Trump is widely expected to win, leaving the campaigns to fight over the 93 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.If Harris wins Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan on Tuesday night or early Wednesday, she will have a projected 273 electoral votes — enough to make her the winner.If Trump sweeps those states, he'll have a projected 266 electoral votes — not enough to be declared the winner but it would him in a very strong position to win.Harris' easiest path to victory would be to win the traditional "blue wall" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — a result that should put her at 270 electoral votes. She has generally polled better in these states than the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.For Trump, one path to victory would involve holding on to all or most of the Sun Belt states while also winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

Election results are coming in soon. Here's where things stand.

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Experts have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election.</li><li>They pointed to Trump's strength on immigration and the economy and a global trend of voters punishing incumbents.</li></ul>There's been an avalanche of analysis following Donald Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">victory</a> in the US presidential election on Wednesday, as experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">sought</a> to explain how the former president won a second term.They've offered a variety of reasons, ranging from a populist revolt against the elites to Vice President Kamala Harris' shortcomings as the Democratic candidate.Here is some of the best commentary we've seen.<h2 id="1dbed9eb-71c4-4a2e-b020-55984ea68b7b">Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University</h2>Hanke, professor of applied economics and former advisor to President Ronald Reagan, told Business Insider in an email: "The American voters have reacted negatively to the American elites who run the show in Washington, the media and so on and so forth. The election outcome was a revolt against the elites."<div type="image" title="Steve Hanke" height="2056" width="2876" msid="115028997" hostid="261" sizebytes="273344"></div><h2 id="a482e781-ed5e-4036-8353-8bd7360cc37a">Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times</h2>"<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/upshot/trump-election-victory.html">Trump gained across the board</a> — including among the voters who seemed most skeptical of him eight years ago, from Hispanic voters in New York City to technology workers in San Francisco."None of this is what Democrats would have imagined a decade ago, when many of them assumed that demographic and generational change would bring a new Democratic majority. Instead, many of the voters whom Democrats viewed as the bedrock of their coalition grew so frustrated with the status quo that they decided to back Mr. Trump instead."<h2 id="7d3e8588-71be-466f-bbca-862acc528256">Tina Fordham, independent strategist and advisor</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-electionsbeyond-market-euphoriatrump-20-policy-bingo-tina-fordham-zzd3f/">"Trump's victory</a> is the most powerful example this year of a political and economic environment that has been brutal for incumbents around the world and brought home the fact that inflation is political kryptonite."This lesson will not soon be lost on governments — growth is not enough if prices are high and wages perceived to not keep pace. The dividing lines in US politics remain bright along geographical, educational, and gender lines, with Trump's strongest support coming from working-class men. This result will leave many Americans not only angry, but fearful.:On a global level, there is no getting away from the fact that Trump's victory will be transformational for both the US and the international system, with geopolitical and economic risks heightened."<h2 id="0f48b608-bdb9-4161-81db-e972ee4a57dc">Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletter</h2>Silver republished a lengthy post from late October titled "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win">24 reasons that Trump won.</a>"Those reasons included inflation, negative perceptions of the economy and nostalgia for Trump's first term, sluggish wage growth, a cultural shift to the right, disillusionment among male and minority voters, and Harris' late nomination.Among Silver's other reasons were Trump's skill at convincing voters he's on their side and success in appealing to marginal voting groups; the Israel-Hamas war dividing the Democratic base; the assassination attempts on Trump boosting his favorability; and Harris' failure to explain her shift from left wing to moderate or articulate a clear vision for America.<div type="image" title="Nate Silver " height="2910" width="3978" msid="115028996" hostid="261" sizebytes="926368"></div><h2 id="cd87b061-0a72-4442-9fe7-4573c9e4074c">Matthew Yglesias, author of the Slow Boring newsletter</h2>"I think 'don't nominate women' would be the worst possible takeaway from this," Yglesias <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1854158785192907052">wrote on X</a>. "Lots of women overperform electorally, and since most Democrats are women if you become biased against nominating them you will cut the party off from talent. Learn from the ones who win!""Trump has made a lot of impossible and oft-contradictory promises and will have problems," Yglesias said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1854058474394566939">another X post</a>. He added in a follow-up tweet: "One obvious one is that Trump managed to both reassure a healthy slice of people about abortion rights while also retaining the enthusiastic support of people who really want to ban abortion. Hard needle to thread!"<h2 id="30bc6c65-8e3c-4fee-aad3-f93e66143c0d">Dominic Sandbrook, historian, commentator and author</h2>Sandbrook told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyIAJCWVxA">The Rest is Politics podcast</a> that Kamala Harris failed to win sufficient support from female, Latino and Black voters, while Donald Trump had a "history of outperforming the polls … particularly in rural areas and the South and the suburbs." He argued that Harris and Hillary Clinton had similar weaknesses, with a proportion of the electorate unwilling to consider a female commander in chief.Many voters were also "suspicious" of a mixed-race woman from California who "appears to be the embodiment of, for want of a better expression, the metropolitan liberal elite," Sandbrook said.<h2 id="765cb88d-3d89-4393-acb3-cb2304fdb96c">Eric Corellessa, national political correspondent at TIME</h2>"The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://time.com/7172052/how-donald-trump-won-2024/">Democrats' hasty replacement</a> of the first-term president with Harris deprived them of a better-tested candidate who could potentially have rallied broader support. Voters took Trump's own advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric in stride. Much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power. And he benefited from a global restiveness in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that has ousted incumbent leaders around the world."Whenever abortion came up, Trump insisted the issue was now up to the states, and pivoted as much as possible to the economy, immigration, and crime—issues the campaign believed triggered anxiety with well-to-do suburban women who were open to backing him."Musk also turned X, his social-media platform, into a cauldron of conspiracy theories and characterized the stakes of the race to his more than 200 million followers as existential."

These 7 experts explain why Trump won, Harris lost — and what the election result means

As the United States heads into a decisive phase in its presidential election, <keyword id="19954681" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sundar-Pichai" source="keywords">Sundar Pichai</keyword>, CEO of Alphabet and <keyword id="19902762" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="google" source="keywords">Google</keyword>, has called on employees to ensure the company maintains its reputation as a reliable information provider. In an internal memo, as per an IANS report, <keyword id="20234972" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pichai" source="keywords">Pichai</keyword> underscored Google’s critical role during this period, saying it is essential for “the products they build” to be a trusted source for people of all backgrounds. "Let’s remember the role we play at work, through the products we build and as a business: to be a trusted source of information to people of every background and belief," he said in the memo. The <keyword id="20239922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Google-CEO" source="keywords">Google CEO</keyword> also reportedly reminded employees to adhere strictly to Google’s Community Guidelines and Personal Political Activity Policy. Pichai stressed that safeguarding the integrity of the platform is of utmost importance, especially during such a significant event. “We must maintain that trust,” he wrote, saying that it is part of Google’s broader mission to make information accessible and useful. “We will and must maintain that. In that spirit, it’s important that everyone continue to follow our Community Guidelines and Personal Political Activity Policy,” he wrote in the internal memo as reported by IANS. Highlighting the teams’ ongoing efforts, Pichai mentioned that staff across Google and YouTube have been working diligently to provide accurate and reliable information to voters. This commitment is consistent with Google’s approach during elections around the world. In 2024 alone, the tech giant supported major elections in countries like France, India, and the UK, benefiting over a billion voters. Pichai also noted that the outcome of the U.S. election would have far-reaching implications, influencing discussions in homes across the globe. However, he reassured employees that regardless of the result, Google’s mission to organise global information and make it widely accessible would remain steadfast. He highlighted how artificial intelligence continues to play a significant role in driving this mission, contributing to innovation and economic growth. The tech leader’s remarks came in the context of growing scrutiny on how digital platforms manage information during elections. <keyword id="19933162" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Misinformation" source="keywords">Misinformation</keyword> remains a major concern, and tech companies face increased pressure to act responsibly. To address this, Pichai reminded employees of their shared responsibility to uphold the company’s standards. In a related move, Meta, formerly Facebook, extended its ban on new political ads beyond the original November 5 end date, aiming to mitigate potential misinformation and maintain a secure online environment during and after the election period.

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