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Earlier this week, former US President Donald Trump revealed that Indian Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> is scheduled to meet with him next week. This potential gathering, set against the backdrop of Trump’s bid for a return to the White House, highlights how global leaders are positioning themselves in anticipation of possible changes in US leadership. “He happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he’s fantastic,” Trump said on Tuesday during a town hall event in Flint, Michigan, while discussing free trade and US job protection. He even went on to call India a “very big abuser” in trade, Al Jazeera reported. Most likely, Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting up with Trump could be an acknowledgment of the latter's potential return to power in the November election, as foreign leaders carefully navigate diplomatic relations with key US political figures. However, neither the Trump campaign nor India’s Ministry of External Affairs have clearly commented on the matter yet, meaning that the Indian leader’s plans of a tête-à-tête with ex US President Trump are foggy at best. During a press conference, foreign secretary <keyword id="20181706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vikram-misri" source="keywords">Vikram Misri</keyword> said, "there are many meetings with the Prime Minister right now which we are trying to fix. Right now, I will not be able to tell you about any specific meeting, whether the meeting has been fixed or not." "We are looking from all angles as to how much time we have and with whom we can hold meetings. We will keep updating you about the meetings," he added. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113444882" title="Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him &amp;#39;fantastic&amp;#39;" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>What we do know with certainty is that Mr Modi is indeed scheduled to travel to the US over the weekend and his calendar is going to be jam-packed. His visit coincides with his planned participation at the <keyword id="23145156" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders Summit</keyword> (including representatives from Australia, India, Japan and the US) in Wilmington, Delaware, hosted by President Joe Biden. As per a White House official, the meet-up will feature "ambitious announcements in multiple areas such as maritime security, high-quality infrastructure and critical and emerging technologies to demonstrate the group’s endurance". Prime Minister Modi will have bilateral meetings with President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Sunday, following the conclusion of the Quad Summit. A special event, the Cancer Moonshot initiative, is also scheduled on the sidelines of the summit. In his meeting with President Biden, India and the US are anticipated to sign several agreements, including those related to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on drug frameworks. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that Modi and Biden will review the comprehensive global strategic partnership between India and the US, which spans over 50 areas of engagement and bilateral dialogue mechanisms. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113085171" title="India is likely to benefit if Trump wins US elections, per Nomura Global Research" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Both leaders will also assess progress in areas of cooperation, though tensions remain due to the alleged assassination plot involving Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The investigation is ongoing, and India has formed a committee to examine the accusations. This visit may serve to ease some of the friction in the relationship. Defence cooperation remains a key area of collaboration between India and the U.S., including agreements on the procurement of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, joint manufacturing of Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles, and co-production of GE F414 engines in India. The Ukraine conflict is also expected to be a topic of discussion. Prime Minister Modi is supposed to attend the "Modi &amp; US" community event at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Long Island. The event, already overbooked with more than 24,000 Indian Americans registered for a venue with a capacity of 15,000, has attracted attendees from 42 states, especially the tri-state area. Additionally, PM Modi will allegedly lead a roundtable with CEOs of American companies working in fields like AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, and cutting-edge technology. Lastly, on September 23, Modi will address global leaders at the United Nations' Summit of the Future (SOTF) and is expected to hold bilateral meetings with other heads of state attending the UN General Assembly. Obviously, squeezing in a meeting with Trump and Democrat Candidate Kamala Harris (you know, to balance things out) seems unlikely given Mr Modi’s tight schedule. But we’ll have a clearer picture only in the coming days. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="111770277" title="PM Modi likely to address high-level UNGA session on Sep 26" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>

Why is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the US this weekend?

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.</li><li>Putin is touting trade in local currencies, a move away from the US dollar.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting a major summit with over 20 world leaders, whom he's trying to convince to ditch the dollar.De-dollarization is one of Putin's priorities because trading in local currencies means that a heavily sanctioned Russia would not be beholden to the Western US dollar-dominated global financial order.But it's not easy to move away from the greenback. BRICS' summit organizers have advised foreign attendees to bring cash — specifically, US dollars and euros — to the event, in the Russian city of Kazan.Most Russian banks will only take US dollars or euros — which Moscow has deemed "toxic currencies" — to exchange for rubles, according to a guide on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://brics-russia2024.ru/en/summit/participants/cards/">summit's website.</a>Going cashless isn't an option, since it's not possible to use Mastercard or Visa cards issued outside Russia in the country. The two card issuers <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/visa-mastercard-suspend-operations-in-russia-amid-ukraine-invasion-2022-3">halted local operations</a> days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.China's Union Pay cards may be used — "but with restrictions," per the guide.Attendees may apply for Russia's Mir payment card — and there's a bank at Kazan's international airport to get a card, exchange currency, and withdraw cash.These issues with payments not only undermine the bluster of the BRICS group's call to de-dollarize, but they also underscore the immense challenge BRICS would have to unseat King Dollar, which is firmly entrenched in the global financial order.The group of emerging nations anchored by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa is not giving up.On Tuesday, Putin again touted the use of local currencies on the sidelines of the summit's first day."The growth of payments in local currencies makes it possible to reduce the debt service fee, increase the financial independence of BRICS member countries, and also to mitigate geopolitical risks to the greatest extent possible and, as much as possible in the current world, separate economic development from politics," Putin said on Tuesday at a meeting with Dilma Rousseff, the president of the BRICS New Development Bank, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://tass.com/world/1859601">Russia's TASS state news agency.</a><h2 id="49d28f59-3027-4723-802e-f105b909d1c0">Putin caps a social year with BRICS summit</h2>Putin is also hobnobbing with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South Africa's president, and the UN Secretary-General at the summit this week. Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva canceled his trip after a fall at home.The BRICS summit is larger this year because the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/brics-summit-countries-interested-brazil-russia-india-china-south-africa-2023-8">West-weary</a> group has welcomed the new members of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates over the past year. Saudi Arabia has been invited but has not formally joined the club.Russia is the BRICS chair this year, so a bigger summit is a feather in the cap for Putin, who has had a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">busy social calendar</a> this year, even though Russia and the Russian leader himself have been heavily sanctioned.Before the BRICS summit, Putin was already globetrotting and socializing with top leaders from Asian countries including <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-bromance-xi-jinping-display-china-remains-wary-russia-2024-5">China,</a> <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-india-modi-putin-hug-west-isolation-big-blow-2024-7">India,</a> <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vietnam-russia-putin-visit-us-wary-manufacturing-supply-chain-diplomacy-2024-6">Vietnam,</a> and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74678">Indonesia.</a>Despite the BRICS' interest in reshaping the world order, the group is fraught with rivalries and competing interests that it first has to overcome, analysts told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">Business Insider.</a>"Behind the rhetoric, there's a huge concern — even within Russia — whether the new members will become their equals," said Evgeny Roshchin, a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs, at a press briefing held by the Center for European Policy Analysis on Monday.

Putin's dollar problem is on clear display at the BRICS summit, starting with the moment guests land at the airport

<ul class="summary-list"><li>United Arab Emirates, a wealthy petrostate, is hosting this year's UN climate summit. </li><li>Countries will debate cutbacks to burning fossil fuels and climate funding for poorer countries.</li><li>On the first day, countries agreed to some rules for the loss and damage fund.</li></ul>DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — There's always one big question heading into the UN's annual climate conference: What would success look like?Several major themes emerged ahead of the two-week event that kicks off today in Dubai, where some 70,000 climate diplomats, nongovernmental organizations, activists, and reporters from around the world are expected to gather. The central tension is whether this year's host — a wealthy petrostate whose largest exports are oil and natural gas — can corral nearly 200 other participating nations toward cutting back on the fossil fuels that are largely driving the climate crisis.The United Arab Emirates appointed Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the state-owned oil company Adnoc, to preside over the summit. He's also the CEO of Masdar, a state-owned renewable-energy company.Climate advocates say that Al Jaber's role as a fossil-fuel executive is a conflict of interest. Documents obtained by the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cop28-host-uae-broker-secret-oil-deals-climate-summit-bbc-2023-11">Centre for Climate Reporting</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67508331">first reported by the BBC</a> suggest those concerns might not be misplaced. The documents list talking points for Emirati officials meeting with other countries ahead of COP28 and include the promotion of oil and gas deals, as well as renewable-energy deals.Al Jaber said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnKMhK-cP8U">during a press conference Wednesday</a> he never saw the talking points or used them in his discussions, characterizing the report as "false" and "incorrect.""Every meeting I have conducted with every government, or any other stakeholder, has always been centered around one thing and one thing only, and that is my COP28 agenda and how we can collectively, for the first time ever, adopt a mindset that is centered around implementation and action to keep 1.5 within reach," Al Jaber said.He was referring to the Paris agreement's goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030, compared with preindustrial levels. Climate scientists say that surpassing this threshold would cause catastrophes, including more extreme wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and floods. People are already facing <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-climate-change-crisis-extreme-weather-is-costing-you-2023-9">the consequences</a> of the climate crisis, with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/last-three-months-on-earth-were-the-hottest-on-record-2023-9">deadly heat waves this year</a> being just one example.Yet the world isn't doing enough to hold warming to 1.5 degrees; indeed, the planet has already warmed nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">according to the UN</a>. Countries need to slash greenhouse-gas emissions by 42% in the coming years to stay on track. This is partly why this year's conference is so important. For the first time, there will be a "global stocktake" — UN speak for a climate report card. We already know countries aren't cutting emissions fast enough, but in Dubai, leaders could agree on how to close the gap.Al Jaber outlined a lot of priorities that would help: tripling renewable-energy capacity, fast-tracking energy efficiency across industries, and a "phasedown" of fossil fuels. He also emphasized the need for wealthy countries to make good on their promises to finance climate action in poorer nations and work out the details of a "loss and damage" fund to help those nations rebuild after climate-fueled disasters.There already was an early win on that front during the opening ceremony on Thursday. Countries agreed to some overarching rules for the loss and damage fund: It will temporarily be run by the World Bank, contributions are voluntary, and the money can come from both the public and private sector.However, the fund doesn't an overarching financial goal. A UN-commissioned <a target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IHLEG-Finance-for-Climate-Action-1.pdf">report</a> said that based on recent disasters, costs of loss and damage could be as much as $150 billion to $300 billion by 2030. So far, UAE and Germany each have pledged the largest sums — at $100 million.Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of World Resources Institute, told reporters at the summit, "While inadequate to the scale of what is needed, these early contributions will play a critical role in restoring trust between developed and developing countries as the UN climate talks get underway."The progress follows <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/takeaways-un-climate-summit-loss-damage-fossil-fuels-2022-11">a landmark deal at last year's UN climate meeting </a>in Egypt, where the loss and damage fund was first established after a three-decade push by developing countries. They argued that rich economies like the US and those in Europe should be held accountable for their history producing much of the world's emissions.There's one other development that suggests Dubai could lead to more historic climate action. Earlier this month, the US and China agreed to ramp up renewable energy to displace fossil fuels. As the world's two largest polluters, no other countries have more power to shape climate policy. However, President Joe Biden and China's leader, Xi Jinping, won't be attending the conference.

What to watch at COP28 Dubai, the UN climate summit 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>World leaders are gathering in the UAE for the COP28 climate change summit. </li><li>But President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping of China will be absent.</li></ul>World leaders are gathering today in the United Arab Emirates for the opening of COP28, the world's most important global warming summit.King Charles and Pope Francis are attending alongside delegates from 200 nations.Their core goal will be making better progress toward meeting the Paris 2015 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius a year above pre-industrial levels.But the leaders of the world's biggest polluting nations — President Joe Biden and China's leader Xi Jinping — will be conspicuous by their absence.<div type="image" title="COP28" height="683" width="1024" msid="105660948" hostid="261" sizebytes="26138"></div>The White House on Sunday announced that Biden would not be attending the opening of the summit, and following criticism of the decision announced a last-minute schedule change Wednesday, sending Vice President Kamala Harris in Biden's place.Previously, the most senior US official scheduled to attend had been US climate envoy John Kerry.Biden has attended both of the previous UN climate summits but is facing criticism for his green policies from Republicans, while also facing pressure from younger Democratic voters to take more action to tackle the climate crisis.Instead, of Xi, China will be represented at the summit by China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua.<h3>Biden and XI pass on the chance to inject momentum into talks</h3>The US and China are the world's biggest economies, together accounting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.climatewatchdata.org/?utm_source=cait.wri.org&amp;utm_medium=redirecthistorical/Country%20GHG%20Emissions">for around 38% of the world's </a>greenhouse emissions.Tom Evans, a policy advisor at think tank E3G, told Business Insider that the decision by the world's most powerful leaders to skip the opening was particularly disappointing given they'd recently found common ground on the climate crisis amid escalating tensions on a range of other issues.At a meeting in November on the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-xi-meeting-china-plan-supplant-us-working-apec-summit-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T">fringes of the APEC summit in San Francisco,</a> Xi and Biden agreed to limit methane emissions, and back global efforts to triple renewable energy production by 2030, one of the main goals of COP28."It's a huge shame to not have the leaders of the two biggest emitters here at COP," said Evans, and citing their recent agreement added: "Their attendance could have further cemented that agreement and helped inject momentum into the talks."A key sticking point in the talks is the reluctance of some countries in the developing world to agree to tough cuts in emissions that they say would hamper their economic development.Xi and Biden are doing little to signal their commitment to sharing the burden of reducing the climate crisis equally by not attending the summit, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/climate/biden-cop28-climate-dubai.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare">say critics.</a><h3>Controversy over secret oil deals</h3>Before it even began, the COP28 conference was clouded by controversy.The UAE is one of the world's biggest producers of fossil fuels, and the COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber heads the Gulf State's oil company.The BBC and Centre for Climate Reporting earlier in the week, citing briefing documents, reported that the UAE was planning to broker secret fossil fuel deals with nations attending the summit.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cop28-host-uae-broker-secret-oil-deals-climate-summit-bbc-2023-11?r=US&amp;IR=T#:~:text=A%20COP28%20spokesman%20told%20Business,unverified%20documents%20in%20their%20reporting.%22">In a statement to Business Insider, a </a>COP28 spokesman denied that the documents outlining the planned deals had in fact been discussed in meetings.<h3>The Global Stocktake</h3>But despite the controversy, and even in the absence of Biden and Xi, campaigners remain optimistic.Evans said that central to the success of the summit will be the "Global Stocktake," or addressing the gaps in progress toward meeting the Paris 2015 goals such as phasing out fossil fuels and tripling renewables by 2030.Cherelle Blazer, director of international climate and policy at the Sierra Club, told VOA, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/cop28-has-big-agenda-but-won-t-have-biden-xi/7372863.html">that the US delegate </a>attending had the authority to push for meaningful progress."The Senate delegation is going to be there. The full US negotiating team will be there. Kerry will be there. So, everyone that needs to be in place for something actionable to happen will be there," she said.

Biden and Xi are glaringly absent from the UN's climate summit. That doesn't bode well for the world.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber held a press conference to defend his support for climate science.</li><li>Al Jaber is under fire again for his comments on fossil fuels and science. </li></ul>DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — When the chief executive of an oil company runs a UN climate summit, sparks are bound to fly.Sultan Al Jaber, the president of COP28 being held in Dubai, took center stage at the UN climate summit earlier Monday to defend his support of climate initiatives. Al Jaber, who is also the CEO of the United Arab Emirates state-owned oil company Adnoc, came under fire after controversial comments became public around how "there is no science" or "scenario" saying that phasing out fossil fuels will achieve global climate targets.He made those comments during a live online event on Nov. 21, roughly a week before the UN climate gathering kicked off; they were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels">published by the Guardian on Sunday</a>. The comments alarmed climate advocates in Dubai and led Al Jaber to pull together a press conference to defend his "respect for the science" and his record of saying that fossil fuels are on their way out."I have said over and over that the phase down and phase out of fossil fuels is inevitable," Al Jaber told reporters at COP28 on Monday. "This transition is essential. It needs to be orderly, fair, just, responsible, and well-managed. I am quite surprised at the constant and repeated attempts to undermine this message."Before the the conference started, Al Jaber <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cop28-dubai-un-climate-summit-sultan-al-jaber-oil-loss-damage-2023-11">also denied a report</a> that Emirati officials used COP28 meetings with other countries to promote oil and gas deals, as well as renewable energy projects."COP28 President Al Jaber's science-denying statements are alarming and raise deep concerns about the presidency's capacity to lead the UN climate talks, at a time when leadership and a clear vision are most needed," Romain Ioualalen, Oil Change International's global policy lead, said in a statement. "Of course, denying science has been part of the fossil fuel industry's playbook for decades. But science is not up for debate: we must phase out fossil fuels to have a livable planet."The controversies underscore the central debate at the UN climate summit in Dubai. Nearly 200 countries are trying to reach a deal that calls for shifting economies away from fossil fuels, the main cause of the climate crisis. UN scientists warn that countries must make that transition quickly to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023">cut greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030</a> and avert catastrophic levels of global warming. But they are far off track.Al Jaber says he's on board with a deal of some kind on fossil fuels. But climate advocates are skeptical, in part because Adnoc is planning to invest $150 billion over the next five years on its offshore oil and gas fields.That seems to be inconsistent with a report by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf">the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, which found that emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure are already enough to surpass global climate goals. The Paris Climate agreement calls for limiting global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to preindustral levels. The world has already warmed by 1.2 degrees, the IPCC said, and caused substantial loss and damage from deadly floods, drought, wildfires, and other disasters.A spokesperson for Adnoc told Business Insider that the company is spending some of its $150 billion investment on maintaining its existing oil and gas operations. Adnoc is also investing $15 billion on reducing the carbon intensity of its operations and on low-carbon technologies like hydrogen, geothermal, and renewables.Al Jaber was joined by Jim Skea, chair of the IPCC, during Monday's press conference, who said the COP28 president has been "attentive to the science."Skea said that under a 1.5-degree warming scenario, fossil fuel use is "greatly reduced and unabated coal is completely phased out." Oil is reduced by 60% and natural gas by 45%, he said."Unabated" refers to emissions that are not captured at the smokestack. Carbon capture projects are largely unproven and expensive to develop, which is why many climate advocates see them as a distraction from cheap and available solutions like renewable energy.But oil and gas giants like Adnoc, ExxonMobil, and Chevron are investing billions in carbon capture technology, in part because it could give them license to operate in a greener world.During the online event, Al Jaber argued that a complete phase-out of fossil fuels wouldn't allow sustainable development "unless you want to take the world back into caves."The exchange was with Mary Robinson, the chair of the Elders group and a former UN special envoy for climate change, during an event hosted by the nonprofit She Changes Climate that advocates for greater female representation in climate policy.Robinson said the climate crisis is disproportionately hurting women and children because the world hasn't committed to phase out fossil fuels.

Oil titan Sultan Al Jaber backtracks on comments that 'there is no science' around fossil fuels at UN climate summit

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Putin and Kim held a major summit early last week and agreed to a mutual defense pact. </li><li>The agreement is as bad for China as it is for the US, a top Korea watcher said. </li></ul>A deepening partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is causing ripple effects worldwide, from the Indo-Pacific region to Ukraine.And while the growing partnership may increase tensions and create problems for the US and its allies, it's not exactly great for China either, a top Korea watcher said.Last week, Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. During a glitzy and high-profile trip to Pyongyang, the two signed an agreement declaring they'd aid each other should the other be attacked.The mutual defense agreement followed earlier arms deals between the two, which have seen Russia receive North Korean weapons to address its ammunition shortages in Ukraine in exchange for Pyongyang likely receiving food, petroleum products, and potentially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">more dangerous and advanced capabilities and technologies</a> for nuclear-powered submarines, intercontinental ballistic missiles, or other priority programs.<div type="image" title="SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - 2024/04/22: South Korea's 24-hour Yonhapnews TV shows a file image of North Korea's missile launch during a news program on a TV at Yongsan Railroad Station in Seoul." height="2979" width="5000" msid="111382879" hostid="261" sizebytes="1177438"></div>The pact was a notable turning point, marking Russia and North Korea's closest relations since the Cold War and leaving the door open for future cooperation. None of this is good for the US — the partnership fuels Putin's war, gives North Korea opportunities to bypass global sanctions, and stirs up increased tension on the Korean peninsula, among other challenges.It also brings US adversaries closer together into what experts have called an "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/the-axis-of-upheaval">axis of upheaval</a>," prompting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-kim-jong-un-pact-russia-north-korea-authoritarian-world-2024-6">a direct challenge to the US-led world order</a>.<h2 id="dc2cef56-974a-400d-b413-80b8b99d2025">No good options</h2>But US President Joe Biden isn't the only one dealing with the problems of this new partnership. The closeness of Russia and North Korea leaves Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a rather odd spot as well."This relationship is as bad for China as it is for the United States," Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.<div type="image" title="Biden, Xi" height="683" width="1024" msid="111382880" hostid="261" sizebytes="36702"></div>Beijing has long enjoyed a strong influence over North Korea, and it has gone to great lengths to maintain relations with Pyongyang despite navigating North Korea's internationally condemned nuclear weapons tests and UN Security Council sanctions.At times when it seems like other countries could compete for North Korea's interest — such as summits between Kim and Donald Trump or between Kim and Putin — China has sought to reposition itself carefully, so as to maintain its role as North Korea's closest ally.But this year's a whole new ballgame. In early 2024, Cha and others predicted that because of Putin and Kim's previous summit in September 2023 and arms deal to provide Russia ammunition, North Korea would find itself "sitting pretty" as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">both Russia and China courted it</a> and the US remained ignored on the sidelines.Now, with China left out of a budding relationship between Putin and Kim, it doesn't really have any good options on the table."They could join with the United States in condemning this, which they will never do, even though this relationship is not in their interest at all," Cha said."They could publicly criticize North Korea, and they'll never do that. Or they could stop industrial support for Russia to try and stop the Russians from working with the North Koreans, and they'll never do that either," he added.<div type="image" title="Chinese army" height="683" width="1024" msid="111382883" hostid="261" sizebytes="68410"></div>A major problem facing both China and the US is the risk of further tensions on the Korean peninsula, a place neither wants to see conflict.<h2 id="a73fb048-b10a-4fc1-bc18-91ed2c3f372c">Dangerous dominoes</h2>With Russia forging closer ties with North Korea in a way that could potentially lead to advances in North Korean military capabilities or improved weapons production, South Korea finds itself facing an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-desperate-need-for-weapons-ukraine-win-for-north-korea-2023-9">increasingly emboldened and capable</a> enemy neighbor. And Seoul's already threatened a response to that.After Putin and Kim's summit, Seoul said it would consider <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-could-arm-ukraine-after-russia-north-korea-pact-2024-6">dropping its policy against directly sending lethal aid</a> to Ukraine. The dominoes are thus in place to fall.South Korea has been supplying Ukraine with much-needed ammunition via the US, bypassing restrictions, but the threat escalates things.Putin warned South Korea against direct support for Ukraine, suggesting that if it does decide to go all in, Russia could flood North Korea with more military support, fueling tensions on the peninsula. "Those who supply these weapons believe that they are not at war with us," he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1ee8x221lno">told</a> reporters, adding that, "including in Pyongyang, that we then reserve the right to supply weapons to other regions of the world."Cha explained that Russia holds a bit of leverage in this situation, capable of responding by helping North Korea improve its stockpiles, produce better munitions, and even potentially provide high-end technology for nuclear-powered submarines or better military satellites.<div type="image" title="North Korea Kim Jong Un submarine" height="1325" width="2000" msid="111382878" hostid="261" sizebytes="84196"></div>Were Russia to take such a retaliatory step, it could prompt Seoul to think more seriously about a nuclear weapons program, something that's long been in discussion but has typically been deterred by stronger US commitments to defend South Korea.Last year, South Korea agreed not to pursue the development of its own nuclear weapons, which the North has developed over a series of illegal tests, in exchange for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-new-north-and-south-korean-missile-submarines-compare-2023-12">deployment of US nuclear-powered submarines</a> in the area.<h2 id="ba3fb380-ac8b-4bc4-b745-24af0bb95c80">Growing unease</h2>With the Putin-Kim alliance, China is also likely to face greater pressure from US-led alliances. Cha explained that the security pact between Russia and North Korea "ensures the US-Japan-South Korea military alliances will grow even tighter," which makes the Indo-Pacific region even more of a hotbed for joint military <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-and-japan-teaming-up-to-defeat-hypersonic-missiles-2024-5">exercises, demonstrations, and an increased US presence</a>.China has long been against such alliances and criticized US operations in internationally open waters. In recent years, as the US has strengthened ties with Japan and South Korea in direct response to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">growing concerns about Chinese aggression</a>, it has stirred frustration in Beijing.Now, that's seemingly only going to grow as the US and its allies watch North Korea and Russia more closely. But China has, for now, kept its thoughts on this matter to itself."The cooperation between Russia and the DPRK is a matter between two sovereign states," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Li Jian said last week, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea."We do not have information on the relevant matter," he said.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea." height="3062" width="4592" msid="111382877" hostid="261" sizebytes="434790"></div>There may be more playing out behind the scenes, as US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell suggested at a think tank event earlier this week."I think it is fair to say that China is somewhat anxious about what's going on between Russia and North Korea," he said at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. "They have indicated so in some of our interactions, and we can see some tension associated with those things.""China is probably worried that North Korea will be somehow encouraged to take provocative steps that could lead to a crisis in Northeast Asia," Campbell said.

Putin getting tight with Kim Jong Un could be as big of a problem for China as it is for the US

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hamas-attacks-horrors-rape-cant-be-war-tool-sheryl-sandberg-2023-11">Sheryl Sandberg condemned the violence</a> perpetrated against women during Hamas' terrorist attack on October 7 and called on the world to do the same. </li><li>Sandberg was joined by a host of luminaries, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/hillary-clinton-pantsuits-gutsy-started-wearing-skirt-photo-2022-9">Hillary Clinton</a> and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, for a UN summit on gender-based violence.</li></ul>Former tech executive and women's advocate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sheryl-sandberg-former-coo-facebook">Sheryl Sandberg</a> issued a global call to action to end rape as a weapon of war during a a summit on sexual violence at the United Nations Monday — and pleaded for the world not to turn away from the atrocities committed against women by Hamas in the October 7 terror attacks."Silence is complicity, and in the face of terror, we will not be quiet," Sandberg said in a speech at "Hear our Voices: Sexual and Gender-Based Violence in the October 7 Hamas Terror Attack," a UN event convened in New York City. "That is why we are all here today. To speak about unspeakable acts."The former <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta">Meta</a> COO added: "This goes beyond politics. If we can't agree that rape is wrong, then we have accepted the unacceptable. Then the question will be, not what is happening in the Middle East, but what is happening to our humanity."The Lean In founder joined a host of luminaries from the worlds of diplomacy, politics, and the arts at Monday's summit, where they called on the public to denounce the gender-based violence that Hamas perpetrated during its surprise attack and hold the terrorist organization accountable for the massacre of civilians.In front of an audience that included actors <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insider.com/debra-messing-says-politics-are-part-of-will-and-grace-dna-2018-10">Debra Messing</a> and Julianna Margulies, Sandberg praised the recent progress that the global community had made in recognizing, prosecuting, and reducing wartime rape. In previous conflicts, she said, women's bodies had been considered "the spoils of war."<div type="image" title="Tom Berthal (left), Sheryl Sandberg, Amb. Gilad Erdan and Debra Messing attend the summit on sexual violence against women in wartime at the United Nations on Dec. 4, 2023." height="670" width="1004" msid="105738575" hostid="261"></div>"That is why this moment is so critical," Sandberg said. "We have come so far in establishing that rape is a crime against humanity. And we have come so far in believing survivors of sexual assault in so many situations. That's why the silence on these moral crimes is dangerous. It threatens to undo decades of progress."Hamas' terror attack on Israel left roughly 1,200 people dead, according to Israeli officials. Following the attacks, the Israeli military launched a barrage of airstrikes and a ground incursion into Gaza, killing more than 15,000 Palestinians — the vast majority of them civilians — so far, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry."As a global community, we must respond to weaponized sexual violence, where ever it happens, with absolute condemnation," Hillary Rodham Clinton said in videotaped remarks after she spent Monday at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai. "There can be no justifications and no excuses. Rape as a weapon of war is a crime against humanity."<div type="image" title="Mourners grieve for Liel Hetzroni , 12-years-old, and her aunt, Ila (Illios) Hetzroni who were killed at kibbutz Be'eri on October 7th by Hamas, during a funeral and farewell-ceremony at Kibbutz Revivim on November 15, 2023 in Revivim, Israel." height="3333" width="5000" msid="105738576" hostid="261"></div>Attendees heard from first responders, police, and military personnel, who described the acts of terrorism that they witnessed on October 7 and in the following days. They recalled encountering scores of female corpses, some whose pants were pulled down, others who had been shot in their genitals or had breasts cut off. They described bodies that were defiled after death and burned beyond recognition, as well as one young girl whose pelvis had been broken.Simcha Greiniman, a volunteer with the nonprofit ZAKA Search and Rescue organization, said he was dispatched to remove some of the bodies in the aftermath of the attacks."I saw in front of my eyes, a woman — she was naked," a visibly shaken Greiniman recalled. "She had nails and different objects in her female organs. Her body was brutal, in a way that we could not identify her. From her head to her toes. She was abused in a way we could not understand and we could not deal with."New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who said she had viewed raw footage from the attack, said she almost choked when she learned that many human rights organizations — including UN Women — failed to immediately condemn Hamas' attack. She said the silence underscores the idea that "their bodies are not worth defending.""The world must do more," Gillibrand said. "It must demand accountability. The United Nations must denounce Hamas as a terrorist organization."UN Women <a target="_blank" href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/statement/2023/12/un-women-statement-on-the-situation-in-israel-and-gaza">issued a statement in December</a> condemning the attacks and expressing alarm at the "numerous accounts of gender-based atrocities and sexual violence during those attacks." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/speech/2023/10/speech-a-call-for-urgent-transformative-action-executive-director-briefing-to-un-security-council-open-debate-on-women-peace-and-security">In a speech</a> three weeks after the violence erupted, UN Women executive director Sima Bahous said that "every act of violence against women and girls, including sexual violence, is unequivocally condemned, irrespective of the nationality, identity, race, or religion of the victims."<div type="image" title="Israel's Ambassador Gilad Erdan addresses the UN Summit on the gender-based violence in the Oct. 7 terrorist attack." height="1036" width="1582" msid="105738577" hostid="261"></div>The summit's host, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan, said that despite the lack of action from the international community, the voices of the murdered Israeli women would still be heard."If the UN chooses to remain silent in the face of evil, that does not mean the world will follow suit," Erdan said. "If the top-down approach is broken, the bottom-up approach will prevail. The world will know the truth. We know the truth and we will make the truth heard."

Sheryl Sandberg, Hillary Clinton, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and others issue a global call to action to denounce sexual violence at UN Summit 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A huge Russian attack hit multiple sites in Ukraine, including a children's hospital. </li><li>The attack came just before a major NATO summit where a big topic is support for Ukraine.</li></ul>Russia's deadly strikes on Ukraine just days before the NATO summit, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-changed-tactics-missile-attack-hit-childrens-hospital-analysts-2024-7">including an attack on a children's hospital</a>, have blown up in its face, stirring outrage in Ukraine, gaining international media attention, and fueling support from partner nations at a time when war fatigue threatens Kyiv's fight.Monday's attack was one of the worst against Ukraine in months. It destroyed part of the Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, the capital, where children get cancer treatment and organ transplants, and sites in other cities. Ukraine said the attack killed at least 41 people and injured 166 more.The attack aggressively highlighted Ukraine's critical need for air defenses, something for which it has been begging Western partners.Russia's attack was met with more attention than most recent developments in Ukraine, and viral images spread of injured and bloodied children and searches in the rubble.<div type="image" title="Emergency officials and civilians conduct search and rescue operations among the rubble of Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111641063" hostid="261" sizebytes="314508"></div>"Russia's missile strikes that today killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians and caused damage and casualties at Kyiv's largest children's hospital are a horrific reminder of Russia's brutality," US President Joe Biden said afterward.Biden said at the NATO summit Tuesday that a number of alliance members will send Ukraine dozens of air defense systems, including at least four more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-performance-in-ukraine-dispels-doubts-over-abilities-experts-2024-3">Patriot systems</a>, in the coming months.While such an announcement would have been long in the works, the timing of Russia's attack one day before NATO's biggest event massively highlighted Ukraine's need at a key time when the alliance will be weighing next steps, potentially solidifying its convictions.<h2 id="f1f25988-bbde-4c45-b294-de5cba69cbad">Air defense priorities</h2>The annual NATO summit kicked off in Washington, DC, on Tuesday with leaders of the 75-year-old Western military alliance gathering to discuss its priorities, including Ukraine.Ukraine's primary aim for this summit was to secure more air defenses. The missile attacks the day before underscored that need, just before NATO's biggest gathering of the year, where Ukraine and its partners can meet, negotiate, and strike deals.The deadly Russian missile attack saw child cancer patients evacuated<a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/08/rescuers-search-rubble-of-kyiv-childrens-hospital-after-russian-missile-attack-in-ukraine"> and moved with medical tubes still in their bodies</a>. Rescue workers and volunteers were seen digging through the post-strike debris. Ukraine's presidential office shared an <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/suspilnenews/35188">image</a> of a child, awake in a woman's arms, with a head injury of some kind and covered in blood and dust.<div type="image" title="Two women sit and hold young children on their lap. One child has tubes in their body" height="1332" width="2000" msid="111641059" hostid="261" sizebytes="224834"></div>Rajan Menon, a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, said Russia's strikes had "backfired" by highlighting how badly Ukraine needs more air defenses.He said that because one of the sites struck was a children's hospital, it drew far more attention to Russia's attacks and Ukraine's needs. Ukraine's cities have long been bombarded, but this particular tragedy triggered new outrage. "The nature of the site and the nature of the occupants made a very big difference," Menon said.Ukraine has issued a challenge to its international partners in the wake of the attack, demanding more than just air defenses.Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said that the Russian missile attack and its timing were meant to show that even with children being killed, the alliance will not do everything necessary to help Ukraine. Ukrainian officials say allies need to drop restrictions on hitting military targets inside Russia, where many attacks originate, and give Ukraine additional support.<h2 id="54e91be7-7131-47f1-b624-7936558d9d14">Highlighting Ukraine's needs</h2>One of Russia's more brutal tactics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine-putin-politics-motive-2023-6">in its invasion</a> has been to fire barrages of drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities far from the front lines in the country's east. Those attacks have killed civilians and destroyed power infrastructure and residential and medical buildings.Ukraine has been asking for more help from allies throughout Russia's invasion and has received many systems from the West. But Ukraine has repeatedly said it needs more, though those requests rarely make international headlines anymore.<div type="image" title="Ukraine supports hold up hand-painted signs demanding NATO take action after Russia's strike" height="1334" width="2000" msid="111641066" hostid="261" sizebytes="161166"></div>Now, more than two years into the war, many of Russia's missile attacks no longer draw huge international reactions. But this week's attack was different. World leaders, including the EU's foreign policy chief and the head of the UN, publicly condemned the attacks.Menon said that this attack had "without question" drawn more public attention from world leaders than other recent events in Ukraine.He said that "when you hit not just a hospital or a children's hospital —and not just a children's hospital, but a children's hospital in which there are children were being treated for cancer — it doesn't get much worse than that in terms of brutality."France's foreign minister called the strikes "barbaric" and "war crimes" and promptly called for Ukraine's allies to strengthen their support.New UK prime minister Keir Starmer condemned "attacking innocent children" as the "most depraved of actions."<div type="image" title="A doctor carries a child" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111641068" hostid="261" sizebytes="104020"></div>Biden called the strikes "horrific" and said "I will be meeting with President Zelensky to make clear our support for Ukraine is unshakeable."The Russian missile attacks were also a notable talking point at the NATO summit. The head of Ukraine's parliament started his address by holding up photos of its aftermath and described it as Russian President Vladimir Putin laughing at the red lines the West has set. He added that it showed how the remaining restrictions need to be lifted.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-ukrainian-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-before-their-meeting-13/">spoke</a> at the start of the summit. Blinken acknowledged the hospital attack and said that it "underscores" how Russian aggression continues.<h2 id="60d8738f-6717-452a-a94f-865b8649031c">A devastating hit</h2>The children's hospital <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2024/07/09/russian-missile-identified-in-kyiv-childrens-hospital-attack/">appeared to have been struck by a Russian Kh-101 missile,</a> something the UK MOD previously described as being <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-using-missiles-intended-high-value-targets-on-grain-uk-2023-10">among Russia's "most valuable weaponry,"</a> but it is unclear if the hospital was Russia's intended target.War analysts looking at videos of the strike said there were <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-challenge-russian-narrative-on-kyiv-childrens-hospital-attack-2024-7">no signs of damage or distress on the missile that would suggest it went off course</a>. Russia has, however, long struggled with intelligence reliability and targeting for its devastating barrages.A UN investigation found the children's hospital likely took a direct hit from a Russian missile, likely a Kh-101. Ukraine also said it found Kh-101 remnants at the site.<div type="image" title="Rescue and military forces clear the rubble of the destroyed building with shovels" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111641060" hostid="261" sizebytes="294622"></div>Moscow has denied hitting the hospital, arguing instead that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile was responsible. Russia, throughout its invasion, has repeatedly made claims that have been disproven by evidence. War analysts said available visual evidence <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/experts-challenge-russian-narrative-on-kyiv-childrens-hospital-attack-2024-7">disputes Russia's claims</a>.Russia has hit <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zelenskyy-condemns-russia-direct-strike-at-mariupol-maternity-hospital-2022-3">multiple hospitals</a>, medical sites, and civilian sites throughout its war.Menon said "it doesn't in the end matter whether Russia did it deliberately or it was an errant missile or some commander screwed up. The fact is it was done, and it's a war crime in a legal sense."Multiple Ukrainian officials have also called the missile attack a war crime, and a UN official said that "intentionally directing attacks against a protected hospital is a war crime and perpetrators must be held to account."Ukraine's new air defense systems will bolster the country's ability to prevent strikes like this, but they likely won't fully meet its defense needs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in April that Ukraine <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-identified-100-patriots-allies-could-spare-against-russia-2024-4">needs 25 Patriot systems</a> with between six and eight batteries each to fully protect the country.That's a tall order as is, but Ukraine wants its international partners to go further still. It wants a clear path into NATO, as well as the lifting of the remaining restrictions on attacking legitimate targets in Russia. It remains unclear if the ongoing NATO summit will produce these results.Senior defense reporter Jake Epstein contributed to this reporting from the NATO summit.

Russia's brutal missile strike on a Ukrainian children's hospital just before the big NATO summit appears to be backfiring

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia and North Korea's historic defense pact last month sent shockwaves through global politics.</li><li>South Korea responded by suggesting it could go all-in on supporting Ukraine with weapons.</li></ul>Russia and North Korea's newfound friendship has left key US ally South Korea in a predicament with few good options.Seoul isn't happy about this situation, but if it decides to, as it has suggested it could, go all-in on supplying Ukraine with lethal aid, the flood gates could open, allowing Russia to give North Korea military technology, be that nuclear capabilities or missile tech.Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang, where he and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un further strengthened their partnership. A major focus of the summit was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-desperate-need-for-weapons-ukraine-win-for-north-korea-2023-9">arms</a>, as North Korea has been providing ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine in exchange for food, fuel, and potentially advanced military capabilities. What really stood out, though, was their new mutual defense pact.Signed by both leaders, the new agreement sets the stage for one country to come to the aid of the other should it be attacked. The US has similar agreements with many of its allies.The summit was a historic moment in Moscow's relationship with Pyongyang, signifying their closest ties since the Cold War and setting the course for uncharted territory. It meant Russia's war in Ukraine would continue to be fueled by North Korean weapons. And it set the stage for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-worrying-military-tech-north-korea-could-get-from-russia-2024-6">North Korea to receive military capabilities it desperately wants</a> — potentially technologies for nuclear-powered submarines, missiles, and more.<div type="image" title="SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - 2023/12/19: A TV at Yongsan Railway Station shows North Korea's fired Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)." height="2755" width="5000" msid="111492408" hostid="261" sizebytes="383976"></div>The Russian president "is casting his lot with North Korea," Sue Mi Terry, a senior fellow for Korea studies with the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider.The play signals that "he has abandoned hopes of having some sort of relationship with the West," she explained, adding that "there is a sense that what's happening between Russia and North Korea is not a short-term tactical move."The pact's reverberations were felt almost immediately, particularly by North Korea's neighbor to the south. Just hours after North Korean state media revealed the details of the agreement, a South Korean senior presidential official suggested it would consider sending lethal aid to Ukraine directly, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-could-arm-ukraine-after-russia-north-korea-pact-2024-6">notable shift from its current policy</a> of providing weapons via the US.The remarks were met with a quick threat from Russia, which appeared undeterred."Those who supply these weapons believe that they are not at war with us," Putin said, adding that Russia reserves "the right to supply weapons to other regions," including North Korea.His remarks essentially tell Seoul that if it goes all-in on direct support for Ukraine, Moscow can very easily make North Korea into an even more formidable adversary.<div type="image" title="Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un drive a Russian Aurus limousine during their meeting in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024." height="1970" width="2970" msid="111492413" hostid="261" sizebytes="164022"></div>"In a sense, he's got leverage that he didn't have before by this threat to proliferate to North Korea," Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider. "For South Korea, it's a dilemma, it's a hard choice because they've tried very hard to support Ukraine but not become directly involved."Due to South Korea's long-held policy barring the direct provision of lethal aid to Ukraine, it sends weapons via the US and Poland. The deal is good for Seoul, helping to establish it as a global arms supplier while letting it keep its hands relatively clean.A shift towards directly shipping ammunition and weapons to Ukraine would thus be huge — South Korea would have skin in the game and way more at stake, as the Russian leader himself has emphasized.Part of the dilemma is that Putin is anticipating that, regardless of what happens, South Korea will still continue to support Ukraine, Cha explained, whether that be indirectly or directly. If it's the former, then the status quo remains unchanged. And if it's the latter, then he's got the threat to give North Korea what it wants.If they get a sense that Russia is transferring major technologies to North Korea, "then I think there's no reason for South Korea to not directly help Ukraine," Terry said. If Russia takes that step, nothing is holding Seoul back at that point, but it risks dramatically raising tensions on the peninsula, as changes in North Korea's capabilities could warrant a response by South Korea and its allies beyond what's been suggested.<div type="image" title="Ukraine shells" height="683" width="1024" msid="111492411" hostid="261" sizebytes="62516"></div>While <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-south-korea-weapons-are-fueling-war-in-ukraine-2024-6">South Korea's long been sending weapons via the US to Kyiv</a>, there are questions about how much more aid it could provide should it change its stance. Seoul's current annual production rate is only about 200,000 155mm artillery shells, and it likely doesn't want to dip into its own stockpiles and risk shortages should it face a fight with North Korea.The South does, however, have a significant stockpile of 105mm shells that could be beneficial to the Ukrainians. The 105s have less reach and power, but South Korea has millions of them — and they may be expiring soon, the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-south-korean-105-millimeter-ammunition-rescue-ukraine">explained earlier this year</a>.Ultimately, perhaps South Korea's greatest concern is the conflict in Ukraine spilling over onto the Korean peninsula. With Putin supporting North Korea, tensions are higher between Pyongyang and Seoul, and the two could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-north-korea-crisis-could-come-this-year-2024-5">find themselves on the brink</a>.That's not a desirable outcome. The US obviously doesn't want to see its foes teaming up, but even China may find itself almost paralyzed on how to respond to a new Russia-North Korea pact, as it historically likes to keep a strong influence over North Korea and doesn't like to see Putin and Kim grow closer. "This relationship is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-kim-alliance-as-much-a-problem-for-china-us-2024-6">as bad for China as it is for the United States</a>," Cha said.

Putin and Kim Jong Un are getting alarmingly close, and it's put US ally South Korea in a predicament

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Putin and Kim deepened their arms deal and defense partnership at a summit last week.</li><li>North Korea could demand a range of capabilities in exchange for sending Russia weapons for its war.</li></ul>North Korea fueled Russia's war in Ukraine when it needed it most with substantial shipments of ammunition, but North Korean leader Kim Jong Un isn't doing this out of the kindness of his heart.What Moscow is offering Pyongyang in exchange is a mystery, but Korea experts say that some of the possibilities are deeply concerning.Since September 2022, when the US first accused North Korea of providing ammunition to Russia to address shortages, there has been widespread speculation on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-desperate-need-for-weapons-ukraine-win-for-north-korea-2023-9">how Kim is being repaid for this partnership</a>.When Putin and Kim met last fall for a summit that resulted in Russia getting the ammo it needed to replenish strained stockpiles at a critical moment, there were questions about what North Korea wants out of this. Those have resurfaced with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-could-arm-ukraine-after-russia-north-korea-pact-2024-6">Putin and Kim's historic meeting in Pyongyang</a> last week, which saw the leaders reaffirm their strategic alignment and sign a major defense pact."I think this is the biggest threat emanating from the Korean Peninsula since the Korean War," Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.He added that the "widespread ripple effects" will not only be felt by the Ukrainians on the battlefield but also throughout East Asia and by the US due to potential for North Korea to receive technologies to improve its nuclear program, missiles, submarines, and more.<div type="image" title="SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - 2024/04/22: South Korea's 24-hour Yonhapnews TV shows a file image of North Korea's missile launch during a news program on a TV at Yongsan Railroad Station in Seoul." height="2979" width="5000" msid="111294168" hostid="261" sizebytes="1177438"></div>Putin and Kim's deepening partnership comes as Russian forces are on the offensive in Ukraine, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-massive-russian-glide-bomb-strikes-ukraine-for-first-time-2024-6">Russian glide-bomb attacks</a> are causing significant destruction, and Ukraine is facing frustrating limitations on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-neptune-missiles-homegrown-answer-us-atacms-restrictions-2024-6">how it can use long-range fires</a> to strike targets in Russian territory.Support from North Korea — in the form of weapons and ammunition — helps Russia keep up the pressure. Suspected 152mm shells, 122mm rockets, and KN-23 ballistic missiles have fueled Russia's war effort.Western and South Korean estimates on just how much ammo North Korea has sent vary, but the total is believed to be in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-kim-jong-un-russia-pyongyang-beats-brussels-to-a-million-ammunition-rounds/">the millions</a>.Putin's reliance puts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-sitting-pretty-as-russia-china-vie-for-attention-2024-1">Kim in a place where he can drive a hard bargain to get what he really wants</a>. According to Cha, Kim's red carpet treatment of Putin last week, as well as the mutual defense pact they signed, indicates much more is likely at work here.<h2 id="128a5e6e-a5e3-4a87-a3a3-9944808b2deb">Nuclear-powered submarines</h2><div type="image" title="North Korea submarine" height="1333" width="2000" msid="111294167" hostid="261" sizebytes="339204"></div>One of the biggest asks from Kim could be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-race-for-nuclear-powered-submarines-on-the-korean-peninsula/">technology for nuclear-powered submarines</a>, which North Korea is trying to build. Its submarines, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-new-missile-sub-shoddy-us-allies-cant-ignore-2023-9">one launched last fall that looked heavily modified to carry more missiles</a>, are conventionally powered, meaning they need to resurface to refuel. That makes them easy to spot and track.North Korea currently maintains one of the world's largest fleets, with estimates ranging from 64 to 86 total subs. That includes mostly coastal, conventional, and mini-subs, but in January 2021, Kim announced plans to develop nuclear-powered subs, noting that design research had already been completed.Nuclear-powered subs would give North Korea a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-new-north-and-south-korean-missile-submarines-compare-2023-12">major capability upgrade</a>. The vessels would potentially be quieter, faster, more survivable in a conflict, and harder to locate, allowing North Korea to travel farther, potentially closer to the US or its allies, and launch missiles without detection.It's unclear what specific aspects North Korea needs to build the vessels, but Kim could ask Putin for acoustic technologies to keep the subs quiet or help with any kinks in the nuclear propulsion process. Kim could also request financial assistance to build the subs, as some indicators suggest that North Korea may be unable to sufficiently fund the development of a fleet of nuclear-powered subs.Kim may want to learn from Russia's experience with the vessels, which could help him avoid trials and errors in the building process. Russia is one of only a handful of countries that operate nuclear-powered subs, and it's fleet is quite capable.<h2 id="d933d636-35e7-418c-9f0c-e7a256b3531d">Nuclear weapons</h2><div type="image" title="North Korean missile" height="683" width="1024" msid="111294166" hostid="261" sizebytes="32408"></div>Another point of concern is that North Korea could get technology it wants for its nuclear weapons program and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.energyintel.com/0000018f-09c3-d183-abef-0fc3b84c0000">intercontinental ballistic missiles</a>.On Monday, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-russia-could-be-discussing-help-north-korea-missile-development-2024-06-24/">said</a> discussions about what North Korea gets from Russia likely involve "nuclear or long-range missile-development plans, perhaps other things in energy and the like."Over the past decade, North Korea has domestically produced a missile force, from short- and intermediate-range weapons to ICBMs and submarine-launched missiles. Most recently, it has shown off its development of what it says are hypersonic missiles.The North is working to field a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-tests-missiles-potentially-capable-of-evading-us-air-defense-2024-1">force of missiles that could overwhelm adversary defenses</a>. Help with this process, as well as assistance developing countermeasures to defeat enemy missile defenses, could be a priority.<h2 id="cc983c83-4328-435c-b97d-aa1cd8d81620">Satellite technology</h2>Advanced satellite technologies would go hand-and-hand with North Korean ambitions. In September 2023, Putin actually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-says-russia-help-north-korea-build-satellites-2023-09-13/">promised</a> Russia would help North Korea build satellites; Kim has repeatedly tried and often failed to launch satellites into space, with the most recent May 2024 test failing when the rocket exploded during the first stage of flight.With a satellite network, North Korea could rapidly identify targets to strike with its missiles. That would bolster its capabilities for a preemptive strike against the US or its allies, giving them only a few minutes to respond before airfields, ports, and command and control facilities on and around the Korean Peninsula are struck.<h2 id="3b35e76e-9f5c-4903-908f-17b7b3bca1b1">Fighter jets, manufacturing, and more</h2><div type="image" title="The Korean People's Army conducts an artillery firing drill." height="1965" width="2965" msid="111294170" hostid="261" sizebytes="195730"></div>There have also been suggestions that what North Korea might want from Russia includes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-desperation-chance-for-north-korea-to-upgrade-air-force-2023-10">fighter aircraft</a>, which Cha said were not entirely concerning given the robust capabilities of South Korea's Air Force, as well as US airpower in the region.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-gets-combat-data-russia-uses-ammo-in-ukraine-2024-3">North Korea's ammo production capabilities</a>, too, could see improvements thanks to Russian involvement. Much of the country's stockpiles date back decades, and US and South Korean officials have raised doubts about the effectiveness of these weapons.If Russia were to collaborate with North Korea on ammo production, or at the very least give it better capabilities, then North Korea could find itself with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-arms-factories-full-tilt-russias-war-south-korea-2024-2">larger, more effective stockpiles</a> for a potential conflict on the peninsula.But how this plays out is not all about what North Korea wants. There's also the question of what Putin is willing to provide. Further support could depend on how the war in Ukraine goes or whether South Korea decides to directly provide lethal aid to Ukraine, as opposed to its current policy of sending it via the US.During <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/events/impossible-state-live-podcast-threat-no-other-russia-north-korea-alliance">CSIS' The Impossible State panel discussion</a> on Monday, Scott Snyder, the president and chief executive officer of the Korea Economic Institute of America, said that the dynamic between Moscow and Seoul could determine what Putin decides to give North Korea.After South Korea threatened to provide lethal aid to Ukraine directly in light of last week's summit, Putin suggested the possibility of giving North Korea the military capabilities it wants. Cha said that "in a sense, he's got leverage that he didn't have before."

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