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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

In early Wednesday trading, the Indian rupee slid 14 paise to hit an all-time low of 84.23 per US dollar, weighed down by continued outflows of foreign funds and a robust US dollar in global markets. Forex analysts highlighted the volatility stemming from the ongoing US elections, suggesting that stability could return once results are clear in this close race. The US Federal Reserve is also on the radar, with an anticipated interest rate cut this week and a projected easing of up to 100 basis points by 2025. At the interbank forex market, the rupee opened at its historic low of 84.23 against the dollar, down from its previous close of 84.09. On Tuesday, the currency had ended slightly stronger, gaining 2 paise. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, climbed 1.64% to 105.11. According to Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury at Finrex Treasury Advisors, the index rose following initial election results showing former President Trump ahead, with the Republican party also leading in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The global oil market saw movement as Brent crude prices dipped 0.98%, trading at USD 74.79 per barrel. Bhansali noted that the rupee’s trajectory will heavily depend on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) response, particularly as the currency fluctuates with real-time election outcomes. He estimated an intra-day trading range between 84.00 and 84.35. On the domestic front, Indian stock markets showed positive trends. The Sensex climbed by 390.93 points (0.49%) to reach 79,867.56, while the Nifty rose by 135.60 points (0.56%) to 24,348.90. Despite these gains, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers on Tuesday, pulling out Rs 2,569.41 crore from the capital markets, as per stock exchange data. This withdrawal underscores the challenges facing the Indian currency amid global financial uncertainties. (with PTI inputs)

Rupee hits record low of 84.23 against US dollar amidst US elections 2024

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's presidential-election victory has fueled major moves in financial markets.</li><li>Investors are anticipating tax cuts and looser regulation from the president-elect.</li></ul>Donald Trump's election victory immediately sent financial markets into a frenzy.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">Stocks soared to records</a> on the prospect of tax cuts and looser regulation. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">Bank stocks</a> in particular got a lift amid speculation of increased deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">Bond yields</a> also surged as investors priced in the expectation that Trump's protectionist trade policies will be inflationary, complicating plans for further rate cuts. The dollar rose and gold dipped.Cryptos of all sorts charged higher, with bitcoin setting a series of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-btc-90000-donald-trump-election-crypto-policies-2024-11">records above $90,000</a> as traders looked ahead to lighter regulation from the self-appointed "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7">crypto president</a>."A group of Bank of America analysts led by Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist of BofA Global Research, took stock of the recent moves.Below are six charts that show just how extreme market fluctuations have been across assets:<h2 id="aa272ef7-0f9f-4856-aa0b-67ae288e7a0b">1. Large-cap stocks saw their biggest weekly inflow ever.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing inflow into large cap US stocks" height="897" width="1020" msid="115341350" hostid="261" sizebytes="42246"></div><h2 id="6640a71d-0059-4868-95bf-82898dfe90c2">2. Chinese stocks saw the biggest week of outflows in more than five months.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing outflow from Chinese stocks" height="867" width="986" msid="115341354" hostid="261" sizebytes="31244"></div><h2 id="f0e7fd4a-b458-4031-b623-1248301cb1ce">3. Financial stocks saw the biggest inflow in more than two years.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing inflows to financial funds" height="945" width="1082" msid="115341352" hostid="261" sizebytes="46122"></div><h2 id="f33bff20-8b01-4bad-b84d-207602c9141d">4. Gold saw its biggest outflow in more than two years.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing outflow from gold" height="858" width="999" msid="115341353" hostid="261" sizebytes="37944"></div><h2 id="b4a7a96b-aa46-4b21-89c6-c72d49676042">5. Money-market fund assets reached an all-time high.</h2><div type="image" title="Graph showing money market funds" height="835" width="980" msid="115341357" hostid="261" sizebytes="32386"></div><h2 id="f1e22c3a-573b-476b-a65a-3ee6136bf2ac">6. Crypto saw its biggest week of inflows on record.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing crypto fund flows" height="886" width="1012" msid="115341355" hostid="261" sizebytes="28802"></div>

6 charts showing Trump's immense post-election market impact 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>European stocks are pricing in a Trump win, Barclays said.</li><li>Exporters have underperformed the broader European market by 15% since spring.</li></ul>With the US election less than two weeks away, European stocks have already been pricing in a Donald Trump victory, according to Barclays.The firm noted that a basket of European exporters — or those companies most vulnerable to tariffs — has underperformed the benchmark European Stoxx 600 by 15% since early spring.Barclays says this is reflective of investors preemptively bracing for Trump's tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his presidential-election platform, under the expectation he will win.<div type="image" title="Barclays chart showing how stocks exposed to tariffs have underperformed the broader index" height="1670" width="2136" msid="114514786" hostid="261" sizebytes="87238"></div>"Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities' relative performance year-to-date," Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote on Wednesday. "In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany, Italy, Cap Goods, Autos, Beverages, Tech, Chemicals most at risk."Barclays did note that some European firms have relocated production to the US since 2018, which could somewhat limit the impact of Trump's trade policy on the whole market. But it's still worried about the possible side effects."The second-order impact through lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation) could be more severe, in particular in the case of retaliation and a trade war," Barclays wrote.The US will also feel the impact. The firm forecasts Trump tariffs will be a 3.2% drag on S&amp;P 500 earnings-per-share next year, with the most negative impact affecting materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare. Beyond that, retaliatory measures would generate an additional 1.5% hit to forward EPS.The note suggested a possible rebound for Europe's markets if Kamala Harris wins. Her policy would also boost clean and renewables in the region, which have also underperformed on the chances of a Trump win.

One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks hit record highs as investors cheered Trump's election victory and market gains.</li><li>The Fed cut interest rates, Nvidia replaced Intel in the Dow, and the S&amp;P 500 briefly crossed 6,000.</li></ul>US stocks jumped on Friday to record highs, capping off a monumental week for markets as investors cheered Donald Trump's election victory.It was a big week for the market, and the momentum kept up even after the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,500 points on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 briefly cross 6,000 for the first time, while the Dow topped 44,000 during the day, also a first as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia replaced Intel</a> in the index. On Thursday, traders had more to cheer with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again by 25 basis points. Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was feeling good about the economy, with more easing on the table, even as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/surging-treasury-yields-after-trump-win-show-borrowers-may-not-get-relief-2024-11">bond markets repriced</a> this week in anticipation of higher borrowing costs under Trump's second term. At Friday's closing bell, stocks ended with their best weekly gain of 2024, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> jumping about 5%.Bitcoin, meanwhile, was continuing a record-setting run on Friday in the wake of Trump's win, with the token climbing past $76,500. "The Trump rally isn't over with stocks reaching fresh all-time highs as investors look ahead to tax cuts, deregulation. and Made in America policies to power future gains. Market participants are also catching a tailwind from a dovish Federal Reserve," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.Also helping push stocks to record this week were solid earnings, with third-quarter results starting to wrap up.So far, 90% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported earnings results. According to Fundstrat data, 77% of those companies beat profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 59% beat revenue estimates by a median of 6%.Investors will turn their attention to inflation data next week, with the October consumer price index set to be released on Wednesday and the October producer price index set to be released on Thursday.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,995.54, up 0.38% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,988.99, up 0.59% (+259.65 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,286.78, up 0.09%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trillion-valuation-donald-trump-election-win-tsla-2024-11">Tesla stock surged 7% to hit a $1 trillion market cap on Friday for the first time since April 2022.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/clean-energy-stocks-short-sellers-trump-us-election-renewables-evs-2024-11">Traders betting against clean-energy stocks have made $1.3 billion since Trump's election win.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-winners-losers-trump-election-win-according-to-market-2024-11">Here are mega-cap tech's winners and losers from Trump's election win, according to the stock market.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">CEOs worldwide are already talking about the potential impact of tariffs on their businesses.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-whale-banked-85-million-profit-trump-president-election-win-2024-11">The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million on his Trump election bet, nearly double than originally thought.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 2.52% to $70.54 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 2.09% to $74.05 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dropped 0.40% to $2,695.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 3 basis points to 4.313%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 0.94% to $76,636.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes end the week at records as investors cheer Trump's victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's victory over Harris raises questions about Republican control of the House.</li><li>Wall Street strategists are closely monitoring financial markets and potential policy impacts.</li></ul>It's fair to say that much of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-post-election-results-bullish-trump-trade-peter-tuchman-2024-11">Wall Street didn't get enough sleep</a> on election night after being caught off guard by the speed at which results began coming in.Dominic Pappalardo, the chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth, was home watching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/polymarket-prediction-betting-markets-vindicated-by-trumps-strong-showing-1033958821">prediction markets</a> and how percentages were skewing state by state. He was also keeping an eye on financial markets to see if they were making directional moves.Over in London, Richard Kelly, the head of global strategy at TD Securities, was on his firm's trading floor, busy answering endless client questions on 'What about this' and 'What about that'-type scenarios."As much as we all tried to think ahead of what the different policies would be, there are always a lot more questions that come up on the day, and they all have to be much more concrete," Kelly said. "So it's just been a whirlwind."Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">Donald Trump's victory</a> over Vice President Kamala Harris has been called for Tuesday's election, but Wall Street is still waiting on one more key answer: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-balance-of-power-results-competitive-republicans-democrats-2024-11">Will Republicans take the House</a>, too? It seems increasingly likely. Yet, the result would be based on a handful of seats."Technically, we don't need to know until the first half of December legally, and these things are so close in terms of the margin of error," Kelly said. "There's some of these races where literally hundreds of ballots is the differential of Republican versus Democrat. So it's not going to be today."The small tilt in the House makes a big difference because a handful of seats are enough to create some friction on Trump policies, Kelly noted.<h2 id="e4827f7a-5ee5-4a62-aa3b-da6a8ce8b3ef">Stocks</h2>Sector rotations among stocks are slightly muddy because the overall <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-election-trump-stock-rally-rise-sp500-outlook-regulation-mergers-2024-11">market is up so much that everything rallied</a> with the broad market, Pappalardo said. But one noteworthy sector is financials, which performed better than the overall market into Wednesday's early trading hours. It's unsurprising since the Republicans campaigned on policies favorable to banks and financial stocks, including decreased regulation. The steepening yield curve is also positive for banks as it boosts their profit margins since they borrow on the front-end yield and lend at the back-end yield, he added.Technology is another sector the market is viewing favorably: Tech companies have been creating a lot of profit, so Trump's promised corporate tax cuts will be quite beneficial, Pappalardo said.Meanwhile, the utilities sector lagged the broader market the most as we moved into Wednesday's early trading hours. Investors moving away from defensives toward cyclicals is likely a sign that investors believe the economy is positioned for growth, Pappalardo noted.While the rallies are positive for stocks, looking ahead, Pappalardo expects things to return to normality. In other words, investors will focus on traditional fundamentals like corporate earnings and interest rate policy.<h2 id="5e50dfbb-c80b-4dee-8272-69eff4f2145f">Bonds</h2>Wednesday was a long day for Gennadiy Goldberg, the head of US rates strategy at TD Securities. He stayed up past midnight watching the yield move before passing the baton off to his colleagues in London."Once the polls started to close, the market already started to move," Goldberg said. "It took the market very little time to start penciling in higher odds of the Trump victory."The swift and strong Republican win pushed the 10-year yield up from around 4.3% to around 4.45%.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond#:~:text=Bonds%20are%20loans%20that%20investors,the%20principal%20investment%20at%20maturity.">bond market</a> was expressing signs of nervousness. This sector of the market is worried about who's going to pay the bill for potentially higher budget deficits. The result is a pricing-in of higher debt premiums, Goldberg said.Additionally, aggressive immigration and tariff policies could be inflationary. And if it looks like inflation pressures are either reaccelerating or just stubbornly high, it could leave the Fed nervous about cutting rates further, Goldberg said.Kelly added that the 10-year could still move higher to 4.75%, and that's where he thinks the market could get more comfortable buying.<h2 id="b628f761-842f-464c-a039-7d296873c4e9">Currencies</h2>Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, was at home in front of multiple screens until about 1 a.m. as she watched <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-forex">currencies move</a> amid the strong Trump lead. Initially, she expected the results to take a few days to become clear, but she was surprised by how quickly the outcome became evident. Currency markets also reacted swiftly against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar."The Chinese renminbi, the Mexican peso, and the euro were hit particularly hard because once markets saw the election results being called, they had to start pricing in the threat of tariffs," Bharadwaj said.She expects the euro to trade even weaker relative to the dollar once Trump takes office. Right now, it's trading at $1.07; expect it to move to $1.05, she said. If the Republicans take the House, then the euro could drop below $1.05, she added.Kelly added that China has been under the microscope since Trump talked about 60% tariffs on its imports. Other countries could face 10% tariffs across the board. So, if you're highly leveraged to trade, like Europe or the UK, it could be very negative for the euro and pound. He noted that it could also be negative on the currencies of Canada and Mexico, depending on how USMCA members will be impacted.On the flip side, the yen could weaken less than other currencies relative to the US dollar. The Bank of Japan may return to rate hikes over the next few months after it had paused, Kelly said. This means watch out for further unwinding in the yen carry trade. Therefore, the next question investors have to ask is: how many long equity positions have been funded at very low Japanese rates, Kelly said.For this reason, Bharadwaj cautions traders about jumping back into any carry trades because there will be a lot of currency volatility.<h2 id="2b454727-3f51-473d-b815-35fcf1e90886">Gold</h2>One surprise is that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">gold hasn't weakened</a> as much as expected, Kelly said. As the dollar strengthened, he anticipated a more significant pullback. Given the uncertainty and volatility that took place the day after the elections, it might be too soon as investors digest results. However, he anticipates further weakening in gold, which is down 2% from Election Day.

Chief strategists project their outlooks on stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold amid a Trump victory 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump won a second term in Tuesday's presidential election.</li><li>Analysts expect Trump's economic policies to increase inflation, and push interest rates higher.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump's victory</a> is set to herald a new era of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and surging cryptocurrencies, analysts said in initial reactions to the presidential election result. The economic impact of Trump's second term is likely to be volatile, said Lindsay James, investment strategist at UK-based Quilter Investments."While he, and others that surround him such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-won-election-what-that-means-for-elon-musk-2024-11">Elon Musk</a>, want to cut the size of the state, public spending is likely to remain very high and taxes kept low," she added."Many of his measures will be inflationary and likely to lead to a rise in bond yields, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve in its quest to bring interest rates down."The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">Federal Reserve cut rates</a> for the first time in four years in September, and is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">expected to cut again at its November meeting on Thursday</a>. However, such cuts could be shortlived if Trump's trade policies, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">include proposed near-universal tariffs</a>, prove to be inflationary as expected.Thomas Matthews of consultancy Capital Economics wrote: "We suspect that the more important story for the bond market is just the inflationary effect of Trump's policies, including the tax cuts but also the tariffs and immigration reductions, all of which would be likely to result in a higher path for the federal funds rate." Analysts at Dutch lender Rabobank shared that view, suggesting that the Fed could raise rates early next year."On the assumption that Trump will move to increase some tariffs relatively quickly, it is Rabobank's view that the Fed's easing cycle could be over early next year as policymakers react to the inflationary implications of tariffs," they wrote.This should keep the US dollar strong through 2025, while concerns about the potential impact of his policies could subdue the euro, Rabobank's analysts added."While it will take time before the markets have the information needed to develop a strong narrative on the impact of Trump's agenda on the international economy, the domestic inflationary impact of his policy does suggest a stronger dollar through 2025."<h2 id="bab2b493-925a-4648-b862-b9cf71553b4a">Bitcoin could hit $100,000</h2>One asset that analysts expect to surge in the wake of Trump's victory is bitcoin, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">rallied sharply early on Wednesday morning.</a>"Bitcoin is the one asset that was always going to soar if Trump returned to the White House," wrote Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell.The victory has "fired up traders to speculate when, not if, it will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-prediction-100k-btc-selloff-forecast-anthony-scaramucci-2024-7">smash through $100,000</a>," he added."Trump has already declared his love of the digital currency and crypto traders now have a new narrative by which to get even more excited about where the price could go."

Volatility, higher rates, and surging bitcoin. Here's what analysts are saying about Trump's victory.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump courted bitcoin lovers by branding himself the "crypto president."</li><li>The industry hopes his second term will bring regulatory changes and give bitcoin a role in the economy.</li></ul>Donald Trump flipped from <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">bitcoin</a> cynic to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">"crypto president"</a> and it paid off big.Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/trump-bitcoin-commentary-seems-like-scam-against-the-us-dollar-2021-6-1030500598?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">disparaged digital assets</a> as recently as just a few years ago, describing bitcoin as a scam, and yet his latest electoral win was fueled in no small part by crypto-friendly pledges that unlocked millions in campaign funding.With Trump headed back to the White House, it's now the industry's turn to see if its bets on a second term paid off. Here's what they're want to see. <h2 id="1009b70b-3c95-4408-9e2d-ef2b16069f01">Regulatory overhaul</h2>One of the root themes of Trump's crypto platform is a promise to sweep aside regulatory restrictions that have hung over the industry in recent years.Criticism has been loud over the Biden administration's handling of the sector, characterized by heated confrontations between the Securities and Exchange Commission and major crypto players."Those guys, I mean, they just put so much uncertainty in this entire industry. It was unbelievable. There was no clear guidance, no regulations," said Tim Kravchunovsky, CEO of Chirp, a decentralized telecommunications company.Speaking with Business Insider, he added that regulatory conflict has pushed crypto business out of the US, costing Washington its competitive edge. Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, agreed with that sentiment. "By creating a more welcoming regulatory environment, this approach could draw back projects and founders who have left the country due to regulatory uncertainty, generating thousands of new jobs and millions in tax revenue, bolstering the economy while advancing the crypto sector," he told BI over email.To this end, the industry anticipates that Trump will replace regulatory heads with more crypto-friendly people. The president-elect is already surrounded by such figures, Mena said, such as Elon Musk, JD Vance, Robert F. Kennedy, and Howard Lutnick.Meanwhile, to make Trump's plan of turning the US into a "crypto hub" possible,Kravchunovsky suggested that Washington could provide incentives such as federal grants and tax cuts.<h2 id="b1a4e172-d8a3-4ea3-b022-1a29b3897ab5">Crypto bills</h2>On the legislative front, crypto players will also be watching for the repeal of SAB 121 and the passage of several key bills,SAB 121, an SEC policy document <a target="_blank" href="https://content.next.westlaw.com/practical-law/document/Idfd9dfac273211ef8921fbef1a541940/President-Biden-Vetoes-Legislation-Rescinding-SEC-Staff-Accounting-Bulletin-121-SAB-121-on-Crypto-Custody?viewType=FullText&amp;transitionType=Default&amp;contextData=(sc.Default)">kept in place by the Biden administration</a>, discourages US lenders from acting as crypto custiodians, given that it requires them to hold an equivalent amount of cash against their crypto holdings. It's removal would free institutional investors to further adopt digital assets.Mena also cited anticipation around FIT21, an act aiming to clarify the regulatory roles around digital assets. Consumer protections would also strengthen under this bill, he said.Meanwhile, Trump's administration could accelerate progress on three meaningful pieces of stablecoin legislation, which aim to set up guardrails around future stablecoin issuance. These dollar-pegged crypto assets are increasingly used for purposes similar to traditional finance, Standard Chartered said in a note on Friday.<h2 id="eae31105-86db-4e91-9d15-cfc75e92738f">A bitcoin reserve?</h2>Since Trump's victory, speculation has jumped that a strategic bitcoin reserve could be in on the way. Though the President-elect has not specifically voiced such a plan, the idea that his administration would buy bitcoin as a reserve asset has created enthusiasm among crypto bulls."We're already seeing that that [crypto's] gaining trust, and it's gaining trust within institutions and countries. More and more countries are adopting it. So I don't think it's a matter of years. I think it's a matter of months," Kravchunovsky said.Mena sees the price of bitcoin soaring to $1 million "almost overnight," if a strategic reserve were to be established. The scenario would prompt other nations to build up their own reserves, pushing bitcoin's total market cap 13 times higher. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered head of FX research Geoff Kendrick considers a bitcoin reserve fund as a high-impact development with a low probability of happening for now. Investors should instead pay attention to Trump's separate promise to cease all sales of government bitcoin. If this happens, that could mean a sizeable upswing in the price of the token, he wrote.<h2 id="6a25764b-b3fc-4a7c-a689-ece320390cd4">Crypto's time to shine</h2>In whatever way the industry changes under Trump, one thing feels certain: the election has cemented the crypto markets place in the mainstream."Crypto is now essentially legal in the U.S., marking a major turning point for the industry," Mena wrote.According to Kendrick, crypto-friendly adjustments have the potential to drive the total market value of the cryptocurrency market to $10 trillion by the end of 2026, a major jump from the current $2.5 trillion level.He reiterated his expectation that bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the next year's end.

What the crypto market actually wants from a Trump presidency

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The stock market is hovering near record highs after getting a boost from Donald Trump's election win.</li><li>Bonds, meanwhile, have seen a sharp sell-off since the election.</li></ul>With market enthusiasm around Donald Trump's presidential election victory pushing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">stocks</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-record-price-outlook-crypto-trump-election-digital-assets-altcoins-2024-11">crypto</a> to record highs. JPMorgan says investors looking for signs of rally fatigue should be watching the Treasury bond market.In new research, the firm's equity-strategy team pinpointed the 5% level on the 10-year Treasury yield as a possible inflection point for US equities. It is currently trading at about 4.3%."We think that around 5% the impact of bond yields on equity valuations starts to turn, from positive/reflationary one, into the rising concerns over the sustainability of the upcycle and the increasing risk of accidents," the team, led by head of global equity strategy Mislav Matejka, wrote on Monday.Government-bond yields went on a tear following Trump's win on expectations that the president-elect's immigration and protectionist trade policies would <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">drive inflation</a>, forcing the Federal Reserve to rate rates. The 10-year note surged as much as 21 basis points to 4.47% on November 6, the day after the election.Adding to upward pressure on bond yields is the prospect that so-called "bond vigilantes" could register their displeasure with a ballooning federal deficit by selling Treasurys."If the Trump administration runs excessively stimulative fiscal policy, with lots of spending and tax cuts, leading to even wider deficits, I think then that may cause the bond vigilantes to push yields up to levels that create problems for the economy," Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/business/dealbook/trump-economy-bonds.html">told DealBook</a> on November 9.In the absence of a move above 5% in the 10-year Treasury, JPMorgan says the market's near- to medium- term direction will be dictated by which policies Trump prioritizes.JPMorgan sees struggles in stocks if the elect's second term kicks off with immigration curbs and higher tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump focusing on tax cuts would be a stocks-positive outcome, the firm said.

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