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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump wants to cut taxes on Social Security benefits, impacting current and future beneficiaries.</li><li>Experts warn these cuts could deplete the Social Security fund three years earlier than expected.</li></ul>Donald Trump plans to make changes to America's Social Security system with his return to the White Housein January. The president-elect promised on the campaign trail to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tax-plan-social-security-retirement-medicare-2024-8">cut taxes on Social Security benefits</a> in his second term. "People on Social Security are being killed, and one of the things I'm doing is no tax for seniors on Social Security, and I'll get it done quickly," Trump told "Fox &amp; Friends" in August. For some baby boomers, lower <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-savings-social-security-baby-boomers-without-savings-401k-poverty-2024-8">Social Security</a> taxes could mean larger monthly checks in the short-term. But experts predict that the <keyword id="23944791" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Social-Security-tax-cuts" source="keywords">Social Security tax cuts</keyword>, along with other campaign promises made by Trump, could quickly drain the national Social Security fund. That would put benefits at risk for low-income retirees and younger generations, who may <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-savings-social-security-baby-boomers-without-savings-401k-poverty-2024-8">rely on that income</a> as they age. "It's designed to help retirees, but the people it's going to hurt are people that rely on Social Security the most," Taylor Lee, a certified financial planner at Belmont Capital Advisors, told BI of Trump's Social Security tax cut. More than 72 million Americans receive Social Security and the estimated average monthly check is <a target="_blank" href="https://faq.ssa.gov/en-us/Topic/article/KA-01903">$1,92</a>4.35 a month, per the Social Security Administration. Americans can begin taking Social Security at age 62, or wait until their full benefits kick in at 67, the national retirement age. Trump's campaign promise comes as Business Insider has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/older-americans-regret-retirement-savings-taking-social-security-early-investments-2024-10">heard from older adults</a> with limited retirement savings, many of whom are struggling to afford necessities like housing and groceries on their fixed Social Security income. Income taxes on Social Security apply to all beneficiaries with an annual household income above $25,000, and most pay taxes on at least <a target="_blank" href="https://www-origin.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/taxes.html">50%</a> of their benefits. Lower-income beneficiaries pay less in taxes. <h2>Social Security tax cuts would hurt low-income retirees, younger generations</h2>US Social Security will be depleted<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-social-security-benefits-run-out-retirement-crisis-boomers-2024-5">in the next decade</a> without Congressional action. The fund is largely financed through payroll taxes that Americans contribute to throughout their career. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-trump-campaign-plans-mean-social-security">A report</a> published in October by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said that Trump's campaign promises — which alsoincludes ending taxes on tips, reducing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">some income taxes</a>, expanding deportations, and imposing tariffs — would take a toll on the Social Security fund, making it "insolvent" within the next six years. That's three years earlier than the Congressional Budget Office's current estimation. Those policies would also lead to a 33% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/blogs/what-would-trump-campaign-plans-mean-social-security">benefit cut</a> in 2035, a 10% increase from what the Congressional Budget Office projects under the current law. Lee said that low-income boomers and younger generations are likely to feel the brunt of these cuts. Low-income boomers living on Social Security already pay less income taxes, so they wouldn't see the benefits Trump promised. Lee said that many don't have other <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/social-security-no-savings-snap-benefits-debt-boomers-experiences-2024-6">retirement savings </a>to fall back on if their benefits are slashed. He added that older Americans who are wealthy or middle class would feel less stress from Social Security cuts, and may benefit in the short term from Trump's tax plan. "It would help people in the middle class, people that have the luxury of having a 401(k) or an IRA and have multiple sources of retirement income," Lee said. "But the people that's going to hurt the most are people that don't have that traditional retirement income." Lee said it's possible that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-social-security-insolvency-medicare-donald-trump-biden-mcconnell-2023-3">younger generations</a> will have lower Social Security benefits, requiring them to rely more heavily on retirement savings. To be sure, any changes Trump hopes to make the tax or Social Security systems would need to be approved by Congress. Working in his favor is that the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-win-senate-election-majority-election-2024-11">Senate will have a Republican majority</a>.(Votes for House representatives are still being counted.) Lee added that tax funding is also not the only challenge facing Social Security: people are living longer, meaning that more benefits funding is required per person. As for other retirement finances, like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-401k">401(k) accounts</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">investments</a>, it's unclear what impact a second Trump term will have. The president-elect plans to impose tariffs on foreign goods and make broad tax cuts, a move that is likely to drive inflation and make the cost of living <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">more expensive</a>. With the <keyword id="23944794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="future-of-Social-Security" source="keywords">future of Social Security</keyword> uncertain, Lee said it's important for retirees to build a strong financial plan. "There's a lot of planning that we can still do," Lee said. "Government policy — we really can't affect that. So we just have to control what we can control." Are you relying on Social Security in retirement? Are you adjusting your retirement plans based on Trump's return to office? If so, reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:allisonkelly@businessinsider.com">allisonkelly@businessinsider.com</a>.

Trump's plan for Social Security will help baby boomers in the short term and cut benefits for anyone younger

Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump has won the US presidency in sweeping fashion.</li><li>His proposed policies, particularly wide-reaching tariffs, are expected to have a major impact on consumers.</li></ul>Now that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">Donald Trump has been declared the winner</a> of the 2024 election, American consumers are on the lookout for what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for their finances.From investment portfolios to childcare costs, there could be substantial changes. Central to Trump's overall platform is his plan to enact tariffs on nearly all US imports, which is seen as driving inflation higher.Detailed below are five categories — investments, overall costs, housing, taxes, and childcare — that US consumers can expect to feel impacted by a new Trump regime.<h2 id="d30df8a9-d8f0-4701-8583-83a332628411"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Investments</a></h2>Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. However, his plan to tax all US imports is viewed as a headwind that could be inflationary and hit consumer spending.If those inflation worries come true, interest rates would be higher and push bond prices lower. Trump is also seen as bullish for crypto, and his protectionist policies are viewed as likely to push the dollar higher.These moves played out after Trump secured victory, with the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trade soaring</a>: stocks, Treasury yields, dollar, and bitcoin moved sharply higher.<h2 id="9fffe11a-9455-431b-baef-03c634fbeb2b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">Costs</a></h2>Trump's plan to impose a broad-based 10%-to-20% tariff on most goods brought in from other countries — and as much as 60% on Chinese imports — is widely viewed as making import-reliant products more expensive. Major categories with high potential tariff exposure include automobiles, drugs for human and veterinary use, food and beverage, furniture, and household appliances.Relatedly, the former president has previously said he'll lower grocery prices by restricting food imports to bolster domestic producers.<h2 id="3a8b1c41-e43c-4dca-b716-d8a1ee2acef2"><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">Housing</a></h2>Trump said on the campaign trail that the ongoing housing shortage could be addressed by deporting millions of people from the country. The newly elected president has also said he could decrease demand by banning mortgages for immigrants living in the US illegally.During his previous White House tenure, Trump opposed the construction of high-density housing in single-family-zoned areas, although did not say during this election cycle whether he wants to continue pursuing similar policies.Further, if Trump's presidency is inflationary and leads to interest-rate hikes, that would hit housing affordability in the form of higher mortgage rates, which track the Fed's benchmark.<h2 id="b0d6cc09-dd6b-4d2e-9216-5c8ecbcfa7e0"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">Taxes</a></h2>Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% for firms that make their products in the US.The former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut."A permanent continuation of the TCJA's income-tax provisions would amount to a nearly $280,000 tax cut for the top 0.1% of earners, compared to $1,000 for middle-income Americas, a Tax Policy Center analysis found. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.<h2 id="2804ce0e-fc32-40e9-803e-c53a6b31f02b"><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/childcare-costs-presidential-election-scenarios-parents-paid-leave-harris-trump-2024-10">Childcare</a></h2>Trump has proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.In addition, while previously in office, Trump signed a bipartisan bill that provided federal employees with 12 weeks of paid parental leave, although he didn't emphasize the issue on the 2024 campaign trail.

How Trump's election victory will impact your wallet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's presidential-election victory has fueled major moves in financial markets.</li><li>Investors are anticipating tax cuts and looser regulation from the president-elect.</li></ul>Donald Trump's election victory immediately sent financial markets into a frenzy.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">Stocks soared to records</a> on the prospect of tax cuts and looser regulation. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">Bank stocks</a> in particular got a lift amid speculation of increased deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">Bond yields</a> also surged as investors priced in the expectation that Trump's protectionist trade policies will be inflationary, complicating plans for further rate cuts. The dollar rose and gold dipped.Cryptos of all sorts charged higher, with bitcoin setting a series of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-today-btc-90000-donald-trump-election-crypto-policies-2024-11">records above $90,000</a> as traders looked ahead to lighter regulation from the self-appointed "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7">crypto president</a>."A group of Bank of America analysts led by Michael Hartnett, the chief investment strategist of BofA Global Research, took stock of the recent moves.Below are six charts that show just how extreme market fluctuations have been across assets:<h2 id="aa272ef7-0f9f-4856-aa0b-67ae288e7a0b">1. Large-cap stocks saw their biggest weekly inflow ever.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing inflow into large cap US stocks" height="897" width="1020" msid="115341350" hostid="261" sizebytes="42246"></div><h2 id="6640a71d-0059-4868-95bf-82898dfe90c2">2. Chinese stocks saw the biggest week of outflows in more than five months.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing outflow from Chinese stocks" height="867" width="986" msid="115341354" hostid="261" sizebytes="31244"></div><h2 id="f0e7fd4a-b458-4031-b623-1248301cb1ce">3. Financial stocks saw the biggest inflow in more than two years.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing inflows to financial funds" height="945" width="1082" msid="115341352" hostid="261" sizebytes="46122"></div><h2 id="f33bff20-8b01-4bad-b84d-207602c9141d">4. Gold saw its biggest outflow in more than two years.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing outflow from gold" height="858" width="999" msid="115341353" hostid="261" sizebytes="37944"></div><h2 id="b4a7a96b-aa46-4b21-89c6-c72d49676042">5. Money-market fund assets reached an all-time high.</h2><div type="image" title="Graph showing money market funds" height="835" width="980" msid="115341357" hostid="261" sizebytes="32386"></div><h2 id="f1e22c3a-573b-476b-a65a-3ee6136bf2ac">6. Crypto saw its biggest week of inflows on record.</h2><div type="image" title="Chart showing crypto fund flows" height="886" width="1012" msid="115341355" hostid="261" sizebytes="28802"></div>

6 charts showing Trump's immense post-election market impact 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Business Insider spoke to five experts about what a Trump and Harris presidency would bring for AI.</li><li>Neither has offered specifics on their AI policies, but Trump would likely ease back regulations.</li></ul>With <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-political-divide-twitter-elon-musk-kamala-harris-2024-8">Silicon Valley executives</a> inserting themselves — and their wallets — into this year's presidential election, questions remain about how <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">former President Donald Trump</a> would tackle AI regulation should they win the White House in less than one week.Business Insider spoke to five experts with experience in government and the private sector about how each administration might regulate AI, which is evolving at breakneck speed and influencing nearly every factor of American life."There should be more attention paid to what the candidates do in the AI area, just because it's such an important space," Darrell West, a senior fellow in the Center for Technology Innovation at the nonpartisan Brookings Institute, told Business Insider. "But neither Trump nor Harris have been very detailed in outlining their policies. Neither has put out major position papers on the topic, so it's a little bit of a black box in terms of how each administration would handle AI.""It's a shame that we're a week away from an election and we don't have a detailed AI policy agenda from either candidate," John Bailey, a nonresident senior fellow at the conservative think tank the American Enterprise Institute, saidThe experts anticipate that, broadly speaking, Trump will take a more deregulatory approach to technology and AI, whereas Harris will continue with the Biden administration's approach of regulation. There remains room a degree of uncertainty with either candidate, though, as each juggles the desires of their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-billionaires-investors-kamala-harris-mark-cuban-reid-hoffman-2024-8">private sector supporters</a>.<h2 id="4254cad9-402b-4779-9f06-c89b327c70b8">The candidates differ over a recent key AI directive.</h2>Between calling AI <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ai-dangerous-still-posts-ai-memes-truth-social-x-2024-8">"very dangerous" </a>and sharing AI-generated images of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-taylor-swift-image-shared-made-others-ai-very-dangerous-2024-8">Taylor Swift</a>, Trump hasn't offered many details on how he'd regulate the technology. He has, however, committed to rolling back a sweeping <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-advisor-catching-up-on-ai-biden-executive-order-2023-10">executive order that President Joe Biden</a> issued in October, 2023 regarding AI regulation.The wide-reaching order generated significant political backlash, as some conservatives argued that certain provisions constituted government overreach and would hinder innovation. Supporters generally argue that regulation is necessary to ensure safety in the industry."The sticking point was really over the idea that we would create this big, monolithic AI regulation, not that we would create regulation at all, because there's already regulation around AI in those regulated industries," said Nicholas Reese, an adjunct professor at New York University and the Director of Emerging Technology at the Department of Homeland Security from 2019-2023."It was inclusive of certain perspectives and communities who helped shape it, but it did not reflect a lot of center-right thinking," Bailey told BI.In late October of this year, the Biden administration published a national security memorandum telling the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to ramp up their use of AI. Earlier in the month, Biden's team issued guidance over how federal agencies overall should effectively use AI while appropriately contending with risk.Megan Shahi, Director of Technology Policy at the liberal think tank the Center for American Progress, called the executive order "a good first step." Oren Etzioni, the founder of a nonprofit fighting political deepfakes and the former CEO of the Allen Institute on AI, thinks that the order is well-intentioned, but potentially too heavy-handed. "I think that regulating a fast moving technology is challenging, and I would say that it's well intentioned, but the road to regulatory hell is paved with good intentions," Etzioni said.<h2 id="433b3791-3da2-4962-be9f-71fedfb9fe6a">Trump would take a more hands-off approach to AI — but his immigration policies could end up impacting the sector.</h2>Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">inscribed his promise</a> to get rid of the order into the Republican party platform, which reads in part: "We will repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology."Other than that, Trump hasn't offered many details on his plans for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-influence-election-trump-harris-2024-10">AI policy</a> and his campaign did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment. Reese anticipates that he would repeal the new National Security Memorandum as well, but both he and Bailey said it's unclear what he would replace it with. The uncertainty could, Reese said, cause confusion among innovators."I haven't seen any other concrete policies on this, which tells me probably that they're not going to put forth a comprehensive AI strategy," said Shahi. She said that Trump hasn't committed to much regulation in any direction, and Etzioni described him as "pro-deregulation."As president, Trump didn't spend a lot of time talking about AI, but did sign his own executive order in 2019 that instructed federal agencies to prioritize <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-electric-vehicles-elon-musk-endorsement-2024-8">researching the technology</a> — Bailey described the order as "overlooked and under-appreciated."Reese worked at the Department of Homeland Security during the final year of the Trump administration."When I worked under the Trump administration, there was actually quite a bit of activity, they were very active," he said. "And especially on AI, they were doing things that would be pretty hard to argue over, like creating a list of trustworthy principles for trustworthiness and AI." He described that administration's approach as "incremental."Etzioni said the former president's impact on AI extended beyond narrow policy and that the same could go for another Trump term. In particular, he thinks that the immigration of skilled workers is crucial in the AI race against China, which Trump's immigration policies threaten."The impact on business is nuanced, but I think that it's trumped by the impact of the country," Etzioni said. "If Trump ends up being the agent of chaos that many of us anticipate he will be, that'll have the biggest impact on AI, more so than specific policies."<h2 id="22809d1a-7ad4-4a52-9d01-aaf471dd7cf4">Harris would build on Biden's executive order and likely maintain his overall approach to the AI industry.</h2>With her California roots and deep ties to the tech industry — her brother-in-law <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-west-wall-street-kamala-harris-cabinet-treasury-2024-10">Tony West is an executive at Uber </a>— Harris played a significant role in the Biden administration's efforts on AI. She met with the leaders of tech companies, helped introduce memos on AI use in the federal government, and represented the administration at a global summit on AI safety, which she flags on her campaign website.After Biden took office, Reese said that the work on AI policy eventually became more ambitious than it had been under Trump."It felt like the major difference was that the Biden administration tried to pursue bigger pieces of policy," he told BI.When asked for comment, the Harris campaign directed Business Insider to the vice president's policy handbook, which specifies Harris' intention to honor Biden's executive order and includes plans for an "America Forward" strategy that focuses in part on strengthening AI technology. The <a target="_blank" href="https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Policy_Book_Economic-Opportunity.pdf">policy book </a>also outlines a plan to scale up the National AI Research Resource, which supports startups and researchers.The experts that Business Insider spoke to don't know precisely what Harris would do as president. They all anticipate that she would take an approach generally consistent with Biden. Shahi said that Biden provided "a straightforward foundation to build on," but doesn't think that AI is necessarily a day one priority."I think that a Harris administration is likely going to take this kind of much more linear, much more predictable path that is based on a lot of the existing corpus of AI policies, like the National AI research resource," Reese said, describing such continuity as the healthiest approach.Whether Trump or Harris wins the White House, Etzioni and Bailey said that having <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-sec-ftc-khan-gensler-crypto-regulation-biden-warren-2024-9">AI experts in the administration</a> is crucial. Among the few upsides Bailey sees to Biden's executive order is the call to have agencies appoint AI directors."The bottom line is that neither of them is an AI expert, so it's a question of who they would hire," Etzioni said of the candidates.<h2 id="1e24d451-c0f3-45bd-a9d9-1f2ca945c4f1"></h2>

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact the future of AI

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The presidential election has the potential to reshape the investment landscape.</li><li>Detailed below is what Wall Street is saying about investing implications across multiple asset classes.</li></ul>With the presidential election just over a week away, and the candidates in a dead heat in the polls, Americans are in suspense about how their lives will change under a new leader.Business Insider has prepared a five-part refresher for the final stretch that will unpack the potential impact that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies will have on US consumers. Today's first installment is focused on the investment landscape.To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. Their varying platforms will also be crucial in determining the future path of interest rates, which will shape the bond market.But they're not expected to have diametrically opposed impacts on everything, with both candidates seen as positive forces for crypto.Detailed below is the latest research and commentary from top Wall Street strategists, outlining how the market and investing landscape will shift under potential Trump or Harris administrations.The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each.<h2 id="40896f3b-9c3a-42aa-82ae-49a1761381ac">Stocks</h2>From the perspective of equities, it's helpful to look at the potential impact on both the micro (specific sectors set to be impacted) and the macro (how the broader market will respond).<h3 id="24c47698-0ee7-4a48-bb04-abe2a4f630c2">Trump</h3><h4 id="51cc4655-bf14-43bc-b772-b54703215a1c">Sectors</h4>Much of the industry guidance for the stock market under Trump boils down to his proposed tax policies. Bank of America says his plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21% will boost corporate earnings by 4%. How much it impacts each sector ultimately depends on sensitivity to changes in the tax rate.To that end, BofA says the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors — the areas most beholden to tax-rate changes — will benefit the most. On the flip side, less exposed areas like utilities, real estate, and energy will get the smallest boost.For energy specifically, Trump's pro-drilling stance — while supportive of industry activity — will likely lead to oversupply and lower oil prices, says BNY Wealth. That, in turn, will hurt corporate profitability in the sector and drag on stock prices.It's also worth noting that energy was the worst-performing sector during Trump's previous presidential tenure.Financials is another area of the stock market seen benefiting from a Trump win. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/if-trump-wins-he-plans-free-wall-street-burdensome-regulations-2024-04-12/">Allies of the former president have said</a> he aims to unburden banks from many of the regulations that were imposed following the 2008 financial crisis, something that his first administration tried to do with limited success.Those looser regulations could could also ignite a fresh wave of mergers and acquisitions, which would increase advisory revenue for big banks and help drive up profits from dealmaking.<h4 id="08ac2f7c-0094-48df-8910-ca3b12ae746a">Broader market</h4>Zooming out and assessing the full equity-market landscape, views are divided, particularly along partisan lines. Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies are seen by his supporters as pro-business, which would be good news for corporate profit growth and deal activity.But Trump critics argue that his proposal for universal tariffs and steeper levies on Chinese imports — as well as a crackdown on immigration — will be inflationary, which could hold back stock prices. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation says the tariff plan in particular could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-mckinley-tariffs-great-depression/">hurt profit margins and put pressure on consumer spending</a>.Bank of America estimates that 60% tariffs on China and 10% on other countries would lower S&amp;P 500 earnings per share by 3.1%. That would be a problem since earnings growth has long been the stock market's primary driver of gains."The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks," BCA Research chief strategist Peter Berezin said.<h3 id="fe116c39-7eef-494d-b923-93e68c7490b4">Harris</h3><h4 id="82c14dd6-d54a-4af0-a6d6-b171c6d4ccd1">Sectors</h4>Just like with Trump, much of the guidance around the stock market under Harris involves her tax plan. Her proposal to hike the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% would have an inverse effect on sectors.That means consumer discretionary and communication services — the top beneficiaries under Trump — would be hit the hardest under a Harris regime, BofA says."Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 modestly since Harris' presidential candidacy was announced, perhaps reflecting concerns that a Democratic President could result in higher corporate taxes and employee wages," BNY Wealth said.Financial firms will also feel a negative impact of both higher taxes and Harris' proposed regulatory tightening.But there are bright spots too. A Harris victory would likely benefit homebuilder stocks because of her proposal to build 3 million houses. Renewable-energy stocks should also see gains due to the favorable view of wind and solar energy by Democrats.Both sectors have outperformed in recent months during periods when Harris saw positive momentum in election polls.<h4 id="27decf30-ab8c-4ed1-beaf-70dfe2073247">Broader market</h4>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-hits-another-record-high-q3-earnings-2024-10">has soared to records</a> during Joe Biden's presidency, up more than 50% since he was inaugurated, and a Kamala Harris win would likely be a continuation of many of the same policies that have been supportive of the market.Those include infrastructure investments and tax incentives to bring manufacturing jobs back to the country, like in the semiconductor industry via the CHIPS and Science Act.But BofA says Harris' proposed tax hike would also put downward pressure on corporate profits, which estimates a 5% earnings hit. Beyond that, a quadrupling of the stock buyback tax to 4% would also take 1% off S&amp;P 500 profits, the firm said.With all of these cross-currents swirling, a neutral market outcome must also be assessed.<h3 id="cefe8193-23a0-4521-8119-4d27dde3396d">A potentially muted impact</h3>Capital Economics believes neither a Trump nor Harris win will mean all that much for stock prices because bigger trends — specifically AI — will shape the market's direction."Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. Capital Economics has a 2025 year-end price target of 7,000 for the S&amp;P 500, regardless of which candidate wins the election.Meanwhile, Bank of America said that as long as corporate profits continue to grow, the stock market will <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-outlook-harris-trump-energy-tesla-biden-2024-10">rise regardless of who wins</a> the White House.<h2 id="7a7d474f-4301-46c7-a48c-d475d0abd0a4">Bonds</h2>The performance of the US bond market largely hinges on the direction of interest rates.As interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and vice versa. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.<h3 id="aa298578-a5d5-4e0a-ab3b-fcb78a88d8dc">Trump</h3>A Trump win would is seen ushering in higher interest rates, which would push bond prices lower. It ultimately boils down to inflation.Economists see Trump's double-whammy proposals of mass deportation and universal tariffs as inflationary. And since the Federal Reserve's primary tool for fighting inflation is raising interest rates, bond prices would suffer as yields rise."Our assessment is that a Trump win would lead to higher US yields," Capital Economics said.Estimates from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> — a non-profit think tank — say a wider deficit and an increasing pile of debt under a Trump presidency, compared to a Harris presidency, would also put upward pressure on interest rates. That would also hurt the performance of bonds.<h3 id="c267d16e-6b3a-4db4-8316-c599ab723494">Harris</h3>Capital Economics said it expects interest rates to fall under a Harris win, which would be good news for bonds, as she wouldn't pursue certain inflationary policies like tariffs or immigration deportations, which could fuel wage inflation.Harris' policies, considered to be less inflationary than Trump's, would also allow the Federal Reserve to continue on their path of cutting interest rates, which would boost bond prices.A Bloomberg survey of institutional investors last month found that 30% of investors would add to their bond exposure if Harris wins, while just 17% said they would buy more bonds if Trump wins.Additionally, 46% of respondents said they would reduce their bond exposure if Trump wins, compared to just 23% under a Harris win.<h2 id="648d1263-465a-44c9-b50e-97ea3cd444a7">Crypto</h2><h3 id="77a393b0-f8c1-49d8-b73b-e2f0119e53e1">Trump</h3>A Trump win is seen as bullish for bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry, as former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">firmly embraced digital assets</a> in recent years.According to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election, representing potential upside of about 37% from current levels."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.<h3 id="58f9bbfb-d544-465f-8607-1b699202db17">Harris</h3>Harris <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">has also embraced the crypto industry</a> in recent months, though she's seen as slightly less bullish compared to Trump, given his public displays of support, including addressing crypto conferences and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nfts-digital-cards-mahattan-trial-2024-5">launching his own NFTs</a>.Yet, Wall Street seems to think that a big case for bitcoin will remain intact no matter who wins. The US government debt pile is expected grow regardless of who controls the White House. That scenario is among bitcoin's biggest bull theses."I'm not sure if either President or other candidate would make a difference. I do believe the utilization of digital assets is going to become more and more of a reality worldwide," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during the company's third-quarter earnings call.<h2 id="bb5f6b7e-fd9d-459b-a7dd-22eebbb1993b">US dollar</h2><h3 id="0ae89f53-6e41-467c-8f2a-8aa885fcaf18">Trump</h3>Trump's tax plan and protectionist trade policies are expected to strengthen the dollar. It's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">the opposite</a> of what the presidential hopeful has said he wants, since a weaker currency makes a nation's exports more competitive in global trade.These policies are expected to be inflationary, which would push interest rates higher and possibly prompt the Fed to tighten. Those climbing rates would then underpin dollar gains."Should he re-take the White House ... the dollar would probably rally sharply, at least in the near term, on expectations of higher US tariffs and interest rates," Capital Economics said in recent research.<h3 id="e5ae53de-b9c3-4069-a7a1-5fc244dc29c6">Harris</h3>A Harris presidency would continue the trends of a weaker dollar due to "policy continuity" of the Biden administration, Capital Economics said.Since Harris' overall platform is less expansionary, it's expected to drive less inflationary pressure, and therefore keep the coast clear for the Fed to cut rates and stimulate the economy as currently planned.That likelihood of lower interest would, in turn, push the dollar lower.

How a Trump or Harris presidency could impact your investments

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's win has upped the risk of a dire economic scenario, Nouriel Roubini says.</li><li>His policies could lead to stagflation, a fate experts have said is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">worse than recession</a>.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed economic agenda raises the risk of one of the worst-case scenarios for the US economy, according to Wall Street's "Dr. Doom" economist.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/who-is-nouriel-roubini-dr-doom-economy-recession-financial-crisis-2023-4">Nouriel Roubini</a>, the top economist known for his bombastic and frequently bearish prognostications, said he foresaw a challenging environment for the economy once Trump begins his second term as president. That's because Trump's proposed policies could spark a period of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">stagflation</a> for the economy, Roubini said, a situation some economic experts have described as even worse than a recession. In such a scenario, the economy would see a period of sluggish growth, soaring prices, high interest rates, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-stagflation-disaster-high-prices-inflation-high-unemployment-2022-3#:~:text=Normally%2C%20during%20a%20recession%20or,the%20corresponding%20relief%20on%20costs.">rising unemployment</a>.Roubini pointed to Trump's plans to levy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-fears-jump-trump-trade-war-tariffs-2024-11">steep tariffs</a> on Chinese goods, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tax-cut-tariff-plan-outlook-presidential-election-scenarios-harris-trump-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, implement "draconian" <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">restrictions on immigration</a>, and potentially <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-control-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-tariffs-inflation-2024-9">erode some of the Fed's independence</a>."If they were to follow those latter types of stagflationary policies, inflation will be higher, growth will be lower, bond yields will be higher because there is more inflation and more real rates with unsustainable deficits," Roubini said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-11-12/economist-roubini-says-bond-vigilantes-may-curb-trump-policies?srnd=phx-technology">Bloomberg</a> on Monday. "That's going to crowd economic growth, and bond yields above 5% would imply a correction of stock prices and negative impacts on the economy."Other experts have warned some of Trump's policies could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">higher inflation and interest rates</a>, with his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-uncertainty-trump-presidency-inflation-tariffs-2024-11">tariff plan</a> attracting significant <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-economy-outlook-inflation-job-market-election-paul-krugman-2024-10">criticism</a> from economists. Trump implemented tariffs during his first term without a significant increase in inflation, but forecasts are different this time around given that his proposals are much more sweeping, with tariffs targeting not just China but the rest of the world as well. Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies will stoke higher prices. In August, the president-elect swore his policies would <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://lower.In">lower inflation</a>. In the week leading up to the election, Taylor Rogers, a Republican National Committee spokesperson, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cost-expensive-goods-price-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-2024-10">told BI in a statement</a> that Trump would "once again cut taxes and unleash American energy to lower prices on groceries and other goods."But Roubini, who has warned of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-stagflation-debt-crisis-crash-federal-reserve-2022-12">stagflationary crisis</a> in recent years, has insisted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dr-doom-roubini-trump-stagflation-tariff-immigration-dollar-inflation-recession-2024-10#:~:text=Stagflation%20occurs%20when%20inflation%20keeps,that%20tumbles%20into%20this%20situation.&amp;text=Typically%2C%20central%20banks%20lower%20interest,away%20if%20prices%20keep%20rising.">stagflation risks</a> will rise during Trump's presidency. Prior to Trump's election win, Roubini said the cost of tariffs could be passed onto consumers, and that restricting immigration could chip away one of the economy's main catalysts for growth.Trump following through with all of his proposals would also likely increase the federal debt balance by nearly $10 trillion over the next decade, Roubini estimated. "The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-inflation-interest-rates-fed-rate-cuts-fomc-meeting-outlook-2024-11">Fed will have to cut less</a>, maybe eventually stop sooner," Roubini said of interest rates, adding that the Fed could potentially even raise interest rates if stagflation sets in. "And then the Fed and Trump will be on a collision course."Still, Roubini acknowledged uncertainties with the economic outlook. Some of Trump's policies — like his plans to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bank-stocks-donald-trump-victory-reelection-wall-street-outlook-regulation-2024-11">loosen regulation</a> — could prop up business activity and fuel growth, Roubini noted.Markets also may be optimistic that they'll be able to reign in the future president by staging a selloff in bonds and equities, Roubini said. Other commentators have noted Trump is likely to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-policies-tax-cuts-inflation-government-debt-deficit-jeremy-siegel-2024-11">appease stock and bond investors</a> to avoid upsetting a booming market. "I think markets are still in a wait-and-see to figure out whether the policies are going to be hurting the economy," Roubini said. "Maybe the markets believe that the market discipline is going to discipline hin in advance, knowing that policies are not sustainable, are going to lead to bond market vigilantes and the stock market punishing him."Stocks took off in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-sp500-crosses-6000-level-investors-cheer-trump-2024-11">record-setting rally</a> last week after Trump secured his election victory. US stocks saw around $20 billion in inflows on Wednesday, according to Bank of America, the largest single-day stock purchasing boom in five months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-44000-key-cpi-inflation-data-2024-11">closed at records on Monday. </a>

Trump's policies could usher in stagflation and send stock prices plummeting, 'Dr. Doom' economist says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump's policies may impact legal immigrants in tech, sparking fears of a worker shortage.</li><li>In his last term, Trump paused some work visa programs used by tech firms to hire skilled talent.</li></ul>Many in the tech industry are concerned that President Donald Trump will make it harder to hire immigrants, sapping an important source of technical talent for the sector."If the backlash against immigrants impacts the flow of really talented people into the country, that's probably not good for us overall," said Michael Greeley, a general partner at Flare Capital Partners, a healthcare technology investor.Trump's election win could lead to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-immigration-jobs-arizona-economy-mass-deportation-employment-wages-2024-10">mass deportations of </a><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">undocumented immigrants.</a> Trump's campaign has also promised to complete the southern border wall and revive the "<a target="_blank" href="https://time.com/7022828/trump-travel-ban-refugees-gaza/">famous</a> travel ban," which restricted people from countries that were predominately Muslim to enter the US. This order <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jan/30/donald-trump-travel-ban-tech-workers-muslim-immigration">left many tech workers</a> stranded outside of the US in 2017.What's less understood is how the president-elect will shape a legal immigration system that pipes high-skilled workers from outside the US into coveted tech jobs.It's hard to estimate the number of legal immigrants working in the tech sector due to the variety of visa types available to them. The H-1B visa program is the nation's largest temporary work visa program, with over 600,000 workers across 50,000 employers. According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OLA_Signed_H-1B_Characteristics_Congressional_Report_FY2023.pdf">USCIS data</a>, the majority of petitions approved in the previous fiscal year, 65%, went to workers in computer-related roles.The new year should bring clarity on H-1Bs, said Hiba Mona Anver, a Silicon Valley-based immigration attorney who works with tech startups. In the meantime, she and other attorneys say they're getting on the phone with clients."I wouldn't go as far as to say that I'm sensing anxiety per se," Anver said, but there is "a sense of the need to prepare.""Trump doesn't have a great track record of supporting the visas that are critical to startup founders and early employees who want to build companies in the US," said Jenny Fielding, cofounder and managing partner of Everywhere Ventures, which invests globally.In his first term, Trump fashioned himself as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.uscis.gov/archive/buy-american-and-hire-american-putting-american-workers-first">"Buy American, Hire American"</a> president. He signed an executive order to suspend some temporary work visas like the H-1B for skilled workers, a move that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-to-feel-impact-trumps-h-1b-visa-order-2020-6">hit tech hardest</a>. His administration saw an increase of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-h-1b-visa-applications-rejected-under-trump-2019-2">denial rates</a> for visa applications and more requests for evidence seeking further proof of workers' eligibility."From 2016 to 2020, the average denial rate for H1-B visas was over 17%, compared to just 3.2% under President Biden," said Palo Alto-based immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn.Under stricter immigration laws, the tech industry could snap back to a pandemic-era worker shortage, especially for companies at the frontier. Experts told Business Insider the sector <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-workers-real-winners-ai-talent-war-pay-2024-7">is already understaffed</a>, and recruiting for artificial intelligence skills is particularly tough as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-ai-hiring-frenzy-big-tech-talent-war-2024-3">every company scrambles to hire workers</a> capable of leading them into the future.Anna Rathbun, chief investment officer of CBIZ, a Cleveland-based financial advisory, previously told Business Insider, "You shouldn't ban exports on chips and then completely export the talented labor. That makes no sense."Aaron Levie, the chief executive of Box and one of Silicon Valley's senior statesmen, offered hope that Elon Musk, at Trump's side, could bring a fresh approach to the issue."Our high skilled immigration system is frozen in time and not responsive to the market," Levie <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/levie/status/1854733432410325002">posted</a> on social media site X. "We have far more demand for the top talent to work for and start companies here than we let in. It's a bipartisan issue that politicians don't touch. Someone like Elon finally could do it."Musk, a strong supporter of Trump and who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-could-help-deregulate-tech-amid-a-trump-victory-2024-11">could be considered for a role</a> in the administration, replied, "I agree."The AI skills gap is so severe that tech firms are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tech-companies-raid-top-university-campuses-rare-artificial-intelligence-talent-2023-4">scouring university programs</a>, enticing students with six-figure salaries and resources far beyond what academia can offer.In podcast interviews over the years, Trump has also discussed the importance of attracting the best and brightest. He even suggested during an appearance on the tech-favorite podcast "All-In" in June that non-US students who graduate from US colleges <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-foreign-college-graduates-should-automatically-get-green-cards-2024-06-20/">should get green cards</a>.There could be reasons for optimism for the tech industry given newer figures in Trump's orbit, Alcorn noted. Vice President-elect JD Vance has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jd-vance-venture-capital-opioid-nonprofit-tech-record-ohio-senate-2021-8">venture capital background</a>, and Musk is an immigrant himself <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/us/elon-musk-immigration-washington-post-cec/index.html">who has said</a> he was on an H1-B visa previously.<div type="image" title="Elon Musk and Donald Trump shake hands" height="683" width="911" msid="115143545" hostid="261" sizebytes="27914"></div>Chris Farmer, founder of SignalFire, an early-stage investor, said tech elites like Vance and Musk will "have his ear" on setting a new standard for high-skilled immigration, though for how long is uncertain.The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.One visa holder told Business Insider she expects H-1Bs will become more difficult to obtain under Trump.Shin Yi Chong, who received her H1-B visa in 2019, was recently laid off from her tech job as a product manager. After living in the US for roughly a decade, she said she now has weeks to find a new job or face deportation."Just seeing historical data from what happened when Trump was in office the last time," she said, "I don't foresee it changing in a positive direction."Shubhangi Goel and Riddhi Kanetkar contributed reporting.

Silicon Valley is on edge as Trump's immigration policy sparks fears of a high-tech talent shortage

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Europe could take a hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency, Goldman Sachs analysts say.</li><li>They point to increased uncertainty as the scope of the timing of Trump's sweeping tariffs remains unclear.</li></ul>As the world takes in the results of the US presidential election, regions around the world are determining what a Trump presidency might mean for their economies.Europe could face a big hit to economic growth as trade tensions increase, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region, down to 0.8% from their previous forecast of 1.1% for 2025. In 2026, the analysts said they expect growth of 1%, down from 1.1% and lower than the consensus estimate of versus 1.4%. Overall, the analysts expect the Euro area to take a 0.5% hit to real GDP, with the bulk of the downturn set to materialize next year.The analysts point to renewed trade tensions fueled by Trump's proposal for sweeping tariffs on all US imports.More significant than the actual tariff increases, though, will be the trade policy uncertainty that comes with them, the analysts say. That uncertainty will pose a bigger hit to growth than the tariffs themselves, they said. "The actual magnitude of tariff increases might matter less than the uncertainty created by threatening to impose tariffs on Europe," the analysts said in a Wednesday note, adding, "The magnitude of the tariff increase, however, is unlikely to be clear for some time, and so we expect a pronounced further increase in TPU in the baseline scenario."The firm's trade policy uncertainty indicator for Europe has already risen in recent weeks as markets increasingly priced in odds of a Trump win.The analysts acknowledged, though, that while Trump's 10% across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, they expect his administration to initiate a more moderate set of duties on European countries.Those tariffs will likely target auto exports, which are worth $80 billion, or 0.9% of EU exports, the analysts said. The duties will have large impacts to GDP in Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland in particular, they added. During his campaign, Trump proposed raising tariffs on imports from all countries to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">at least 10%</a>, and said imports from China would be <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">subject to even steeper 60% duties</a>.The analysts add that a Trump presidency will prompt European countries to up their defense spending to account for a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">potential decrease</a> in US military support to Ukraine. That wartime support will cost the EU another 0.5% of GDP every year, the analysts say.The increased spending won't result in a growth boost, either, they say."Any resulting growth boost, however, will likely be limited by modest military spending multipliers in Europe, upward pressure on long-term yields from higher deficits and negative confidence effects from elevated geo-political risk," the analysts said.European officials have long warned of huge growth impacts from a second Trump presidency.Last month, ECB member Joachim Nagel <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-economic-growth-inflation-risks-europe-ecb-germany-2024-10">warned</a> a Trump win could hammer growth and send inflation soaring in Europe, and back in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe, pointing to his tariff plans, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies.

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