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Global markets are looking ahead to the US Fed's meeting scheduled for Thursday, November 7, 2024, expecting the Jerome Powell-chaired FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to slash interest rates further by 0.25%. In September this year, the Fed surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a massive 0.5%, for the first time in 4 years. As per the <keyword id="23807624" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CME-Fed-Watch-Tool" source="keywords">CME Fed Watch Tool</keyword>, there is now a 99.5% chance that the Fed will reduce the interest rates by around 25 basis points, bringing it within the range of 4.5% to 4.75%. Only 0.5% believe that the Fed might leave the rates unchanged, within their present range of 4.75% to 5%. As for the Fed's December meeting, scheduled for December 18, per the CME Fed Watch tool, 79.5% believe that interest rates would be in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Another 20.4% believe that yields will remain in the range of 4.5% and 4.75%. Only 0.1% see the interest rates staying within their current range of 4.75% to 5% <h2>No major changes anticipated</h2>However, it is unlikely that this quarter-point rate cut would bring about any significant financial changes in the US economy. The Fed is again expected to bring down the interest rates by another 25 basis points in their December meeting. This would imply a total rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of this year. So, why is the Fed not bringing down interest rates by 50 basis points in one fell swoop this time around? Why wait till December to bring down the rates by another 25 basis points? Experts believe that it could stoke inflation, which has seen a sharp decline in the recent past. A steep slash of borrowing rates could accelerate borrowing activity and inject significant cash into the economy at once, pushing up inflation. Per the Fed's recent projections, a total of 4 rate cuts are anticipated in 2025. On a YoY basis, inflation in the US dipped to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target of 2%. With inflationary pressures reined in, the economy growing at the rate of 2.8% during the third quarter of FY24, and the unemployment rate down to 4.1%, the markets see much merit in bringing interest rates down. This is especially important to boost spending, particularly in sectors such as housing and automobiles, where even a slight tinkering in interest rates can drastically impact the amount and volume of loans taken to own them. Data suggests that during Trump's presidency tenure, i.e., between 2017 and 2021, inflation averaged at a rate of 1.9% a year. During the Biden administration, where Kamala Harris served as VP, the inflation is on track to average around 5% a year. Shrisha Acharya, Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance, also notes that the results of the impending US elections, which are likely to be declared tomorrow, will impact the yields and stock markets. "The Trump card, coupled with potential Republican control, could mean higher bond yields due to anticipated increases in deficit spending, inflation risks, and potential tax cuts. This could very well jiggle the confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds and thus start a chain effect that will possibly impact global market stability and lead to short-term volatility. On the other hand, Harris’ rise has been met with a stock market rally glued on expectations of economic stability and controlled inflation, with more predictable fiscal policy likely to help in a soft landing," he explains.

What can you expect from the US Fed meeting later this week? Here's all you need to know

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Experts have been weighing in on why Donald Trump won the US election.</li><li>They pointed to Trump's strength on immigration and the economy and a global trend of voters punishing incumbents.</li></ul>There's been an avalanche of analysis following Donald Trump's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">victory</a> in the US presidential election on Wednesday, as experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">sought</a> to explain how the former president won a second term.They've offered a variety of reasons, ranging from a populist revolt against the elites to Vice President Kamala Harris' shortcomings as the Democratic candidate.Here is some of the best commentary we've seen.<h2 id="1dbed9eb-71c4-4a2e-b020-55984ea68b7b">Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins University</h2>Hanke, professor of applied economics and former advisor to President Ronald Reagan, told Business Insider in an email: "The American voters have reacted negatively to the American elites who run the show in Washington, the media and so on and so forth. The election outcome was a revolt against the elites."<div type="image" title="Steve Hanke" height="2056" width="2876" msid="115028997" hostid="261" sizebytes="273344"></div><h2 id="a482e781-ed5e-4036-8353-8bd7360cc37a">Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times</h2>"<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/upshot/trump-election-victory.html">Trump gained across the board</a> — including among the voters who seemed most skeptical of him eight years ago, from Hispanic voters in New York City to technology workers in San Francisco."None of this is what Democrats would have imagined a decade ago, when many of them assumed that demographic and generational change would bring a new Democratic majority. Instead, many of the voters whom Democrats viewed as the bedrock of their coalition grew so frustrated with the status quo that they decided to back Mr. Trump instead."<h2 id="7d3e8588-71be-466f-bbca-862acc528256">Tina Fordham, independent strategist and advisor</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-electionsbeyond-market-euphoriatrump-20-policy-bingo-tina-fordham-zzd3f/">"Trump's victory</a> is the most powerful example this year of a political and economic environment that has been brutal for incumbents around the world and brought home the fact that inflation is political kryptonite."This lesson will not soon be lost on governments — growth is not enough if prices are high and wages perceived to not keep pace. The dividing lines in US politics remain bright along geographical, educational, and gender lines, with Trump's strongest support coming from working-class men. This result will leave many Americans not only angry, but fearful.:On a global level, there is no getting away from the fact that Trump's victory will be transformational for both the US and the international system, with geopolitical and economic risks heightened."<h2 id="0f48b608-bdb9-4161-81db-e972ee4a57dc">Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletter</h2>Silver republished a lengthy post from late October titled "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win">24 reasons that Trump won.</a>"Those reasons included inflation, negative perceptions of the economy and nostalgia for Trump's first term, sluggish wage growth, a cultural shift to the right, disillusionment among male and minority voters, and Harris' late nomination.Among Silver's other reasons were Trump's skill at convincing voters he's on their side and success in appealing to marginal voting groups; the Israel-Hamas war dividing the Democratic base; the assassination attempts on Trump boosting his favorability; and Harris' failure to explain her shift from left wing to moderate or articulate a clear vision for America.<div type="image" title="Nate Silver " height="2910" width="3978" msid="115028996" hostid="261" sizebytes="926368"></div><h2 id="cd87b061-0a72-4442-9fe7-4573c9e4074c">Matthew Yglesias, author of the Slow Boring newsletter</h2>"I think 'don't nominate women' would be the worst possible takeaway from this," Yglesias <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1854158785192907052">wrote on X</a>. "Lots of women overperform electorally, and since most Democrats are women if you become biased against nominating them you will cut the party off from talent. Learn from the ones who win!""Trump has made a lot of impossible and oft-contradictory promises and will have problems," Yglesias said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/mattyglesias/status/1854058474394566939">another X post</a>. He added in a follow-up tweet: "One obvious one is that Trump managed to both reassure a healthy slice of people about abortion rights while also retaining the enthusiastic support of people who really want to ban abortion. Hard needle to thread!"<h2 id="30bc6c65-8e3c-4fee-aad3-f93e66143c0d">Dominic Sandbrook, historian, commentator and author</h2>Sandbrook told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAyIAJCWVxA">The Rest is Politics podcast</a> that Kamala Harris failed to win sufficient support from female, Latino and Black voters, while Donald Trump had a "history of outperforming the polls … particularly in rural areas and the South and the suburbs." He argued that Harris and Hillary Clinton had similar weaknesses, with a proportion of the electorate unwilling to consider a female commander in chief.Many voters were also "suspicious" of a mixed-race woman from California who "appears to be the embodiment of, for want of a better expression, the metropolitan liberal elite," Sandbrook said.<h2 id="765cb88d-3d89-4393-acb3-cb2304fdb96c">Eric Corellessa, national political correspondent at TIME</h2>"The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://time.com/7172052/how-donald-trump-won-2024/">Democrats' hasty replacement</a> of the first-term president with Harris deprived them of a better-tested candidate who could potentially have rallied broader support. Voters took Trump's own advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric in stride. Much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power. And he benefited from a global restiveness in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic that has ousted incumbent leaders around the world."Whenever abortion came up, Trump insisted the issue was now up to the states, and pivoted as much as possible to the economy, immigration, and crime—issues the campaign believed triggered anxiety with well-to-do suburban women who were open to backing him."Musk also turned X, his social-media platform, into a cauldron of conspiracy theories and characterized the stakes of the race to his more than 200 million followers as existential."

These 7 experts explain why Trump won, Harris lost — and what the election result means

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ali Abbasi's film "The Apprentice" explores Trump's rise with lawyer Roy Cohn's guidance.</li><li>The film highlights Trump's tactics, which influenced his career and presidency.</li></ul>Director Ali Abbasi's "The Apprentice" presents a dramatized origin story for Donald Trump (played by Sebastian Stan), who, in the span of a few decades, goes from a nobody to a New York real-estate tycoon under the guidance of his lawyer, Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong).Though the movie doesn't delve into Trump's political aspirations — it ends right when author Tony Schwartz begins to discuss ghostwriting the 1987 book "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-art-of-the-deal-donald-trump-leadership-2017-1">The Art of the Deal</a>" with Trump — we see how the main lessons from Cohn would be Trump's guiding principles through his career and into his presidency, including attack, attack, attack; deny everything, admit nothing; and always claim victory.That "always claim victory" rule came into play during the 2020 presidential election. After his loss, Trump maintained that the election was stolen from him and that he'd actually won over Joe Biden.Soon after, Pro-Trump insurrectionists attacked the US Capitol in an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, that left four dead. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-denies-responsibility-jan-6-reaffirms-support-mccarthy-leaked-call-2022-4">denied responsibility for the January 6 insurrection</a> and publicly <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/videotaped-remarks-the-attack-the-united-states-capitol-the-certification-the-electoral">condemned</a> it as a "heinous attack" that left him "outraged by the violence, lawlessness, and mayhem."<div type="image" title="trump speaking in nevada 2024" height="683" width="1024" msid="114227281" hostid="261" sizebytes="45562"></div>The 2024 presidential election, in which Trump seeks to reclaim the presidency against Vice President Kamala Harris, is now less than a month away.The question of whether Trump will accept the results of this election remains unclear. In May, Trump said he'd <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/02/politics/donald-trump-accept-2024-election-results/index.html">accept the results if "everything's honest."</a> A month later, at the first debate with President Joe Biden, he was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/trump-2024-election-results">unwilling to say if he would accept the results or not</a>. In August, he told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmfGRdlBq38">CBS News</a> he would accept the results if they were "fair and free."In a recent interview promoting "The Apprentice," Abbasi, who has been studying Trump since he signed on to make the film in 2018, weighed in on whether he believes Trump will accept the results in the event of a loss."I saw, like everyone else, what happened on January 6, which was horrific," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-apprentice-ali-abbasi-director-donald-trump-movie-challenges-2024-10">he told Business Insider</a>. "And I have a feeling that a lot of people got away with insane stuff. Look at that footage.""When you see that, you think, why would they change their opinion about this election? Why would they magically accept this when they didn't accept that?" Abbasi continued.<div type="image" title="Maria Bakalova as Ivana Trump and Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump in &quot;The Apprentice.&quot;" height="675" width="1200" msid="114227280" hostid="261" sizebytes="66734"></div>"But somehow, I'm an optimist," he added. "I was optimistic when people told me not to do this movie, or when people said no one would buy this movie. So, I really hope that everyone learned their lesson on January 6th. I hope to think that even though people may be tempted to do that again, they know what the consequences are, and they don't do it."In August 2023, Trump was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-january-6-criminal-indictment-charges-explained-2023-7">indicted on four charges in connection to January 6,</a> including conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction or an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy against rights. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-hit-with-revised-january-6-indictment-jack-smith-2024-8">A year later</a>, the four counts were revised to remove some of the alleged conduct that may now be protected by presidential immunity. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/03/politics/trump-not-guilty-plea-january-6-charges-smith/index.html">pleaded not guilty</a>.After interviewing Abbasi, Business Insider reached out to Trump for comment. A spokesperson for the former president slammed the movie."This 'film' is pure malicious defamation, should never see the light of day, and doesn't even deserve a place in the straight-to-DVD section of a bargain bin at a soon-to-be-closed discount movie store," Trump communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement. "It belongs in a dumpster fire.""The Apprentice" is now playing in theaters.

'The Apprentice' director is 'optimistic' Trump will accept the presidential election results

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

Trump 'won fair and square': Business leaders from Mark Cuban to David Sacks react to election result

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Former President Donald Trump bested Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.</li><li>Trump won largely by breaching Democrats' "blue wall."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> won a second term in office, overcoming an intense level of political opposition — as well as doubts over his fitness for office — by driving home a message that he would be the best candidate for Americans' pocketbooks.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/FoxNews/status/1854053633198825482">Fox News</a> called the race early Wednesday morning. A little under four hours later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CNN/status/1854109735076676021">CNN</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1854109434735169912">NBC News</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/CBSNews/status/1854111079984501068">CBS News</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ABCPolitics/status/1854111153305088285">ABC News</a> also called a Trump victory after the result in Wisconsin put Trump over the 270 electoral votes he needed to win the presidency.In defeating Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, Trump will return to the White House after voters ousted him from office in the 2020 election.Trump had essentially been running for president since his 2020 loss. He sought to overturn Joe Biden's victory and was impeached by the US House of Representatives for "incitement of insurrection" over his role in the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. (He was later acquitted by the US Senate.)In November 2022, Trump launched his presidential campaign on the heels of a disappointing night for the GOP, as the party failed to retake the Senate and only barely won back a House majority. But he used the head start to hammer potential GOP primary opponents and gradually reaffirmed his standing as the party's leader.Trump easily dispatched top figures like Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ron-desantis-wife-kids-family-photos">Ron DeSantis</a> of Florida and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikki-haley-family-husband-kids-immigrant-parents-photos">Nikki Haley</a>, the former ambassador to the UN, in the 2024 GOP primaries, which further strengthened his hand as he eyed a general-election rematch against Biden.But Biden's exit from the race — following a disastrous <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-biden-trump-debate-takeaways-2024-6">debate against Trump</a> in June — paved the way for Harris' candidacy. The vice president quickly consolidated Democratic support and attracted the sort of donor base that was able to compete directly with GOP megadonors.Still, Trump continued to hold a polling advantage on the economy throughout the general-election race, which for many voters overrode concerns over his behavior while in office.And despite Harris' strong start and her robust campaign apparatus, she was still unable to overcome Trump's enduring level of support from his conservative base.Addressing his supporters in West Palm Beach, Florida, early Wednesday morning, before the race was called, Trump said his election victory would usher in the "golden age of America" and vowed to "help our country heal.""America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate," he added.Trump's return to the White House is also poised to have profound effects on the judiciary.Should either Associate Justices <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/clarence-thomas-takes-aim-at-osha-2024-7">Clarence Thomas</a> or Samuel Alito retire from the bench within the next four years, Trump has the potential to name at least one more conservative jurist to the court. And if he is able to appoint two additional justices, it means that a majority of the court would consist of his appointees — a stunning level of influence that could have reverberations for generations.

Trump wins the 2024 presidential election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump is seizing on recent comments from Joe Biden to attack Kamala Harris.</li><li>Biden on Tuesday appeared to call Trump supporters "garbage." He quickly clarified his remark.</li></ul>After Vice President Kamala Harris' rise to the top of the Democratic ticket, former President Donald Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-remains-obsessed-with-biden-lex-fridman-interview-2024-9">remained fixed </a>on his former opponent, President Joe Biden.But this week, Trump was handed a gift in the form of a new gaffe from Biden. It's allowed the former president to once again attack Biden while at the same time motivating his supporters to turn out against Harris — just days before Election Day.While speaking with a Latino voting group on a virtual call on Tuesday, Biden criticized remarks made by the comedian Tony Hinchcliffe during Trump's Sunday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-madison-square-garden-rally-overshadow-economy-puerto-rico-2024-10">rally at Madison Square Garden</a>."I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now," Hinchcliffe said at the MSG rally. "I think it's called Puerto Rico."The remark sparked widespread backlash from Democrats and members of the Puerto Rican community, including the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/puerto-rican-stars-support-kamala-harris-amid-trump-rally-controversy-2024-10">musicians Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez</a>.On Tuesday night, Biden appeared to say that it was Trump supporters who are "garbage.""They're good, decent, honorable people," Biden said of Puerto Ricans in the call. "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters...his... his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it's un-American. It's totally contrary to everything we've done."The White House quickly tried to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AndrewJBates46/status/1851425985410789795">clarify Biden's remark</a>.Senior Deputy Press Secretary Andrew Bates said on X that Biden "referred to the hateful rhetoric at the Madison Square Garden rally as 'garbage.'" He then <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/JHWeissmann/status/1851454714681970822">retweeted</a> a post where a Yahoo reporter wrote that it seems "pretty clear Biden was talking about the comic."The Trump campaign had already started to use the gaffe as a rallying cry for his supporters.On Tuesday night, the GOP presidential candidate attacked Biden in a post on Truth Social. Instead of focusing solely on his former opponent, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-remains-obsessed-with-biden-lex-fridman-interview-2024-9">as he has often done</a>, Trump linked Biden's comment back to his current opponent, Harris."While I am running a campaign of positive solutions to save America, Kamala Harris is running a campaign of hate," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113394353946876674">Trump wrote in his post</a>. "Now, on top of everything, Joe Biden calls our supporters 'garbage.' You can't lead America if you don't love the American People. Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have shown they are both unfit to be President of the United States."Trump also commented on Biden's remark at his rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Tuesday night. While on stage at the event, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida read what Biden said. "Wow. That's terrible," Trump said. "That's what it says."Trump then compared Biden's comment to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" comment in 2016."Garbage, I think, is worse, right?" Trump said, according to NBC News. "But he doesn't know. You have to please forgive him. Please forgive him, for he not knoweth what he said."Later Tuesday night, the Trump campaign sent out a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://secure.winred.com/trump-national-committee-jfc/lp-hf-sms-dn-garbage-v1?utm_medium=sms&amp;utm_source=lp_lp_hf&amp;utm_campaign=20241030_tnc_garbage-v1_hf_dtrump_lp&amp;utm_content=donate&amp;amount=&amp;money_pledge=true&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_term=null&amp;vari=17866143501&amp;exitintent=true">fundraising email </a>largely focused on Biden's gaffe."Moments ago, Kamala's boss crooked Joe Biden just called ALL my supporters GARBAGE - HE WAS TALKING TO YOU!" the email stated."FIRST Hillary called you a DEPLORABLE! THEN they called you a FASCIST! And moments ago Kamala's boss Biden called you GARBAGE!"Harris on Wednesday addressed Biden's remark, one day after she gave her <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-closing-argument-washington-dc-speech-policty-economy-trump-2024-10">closing argument speech</a> at the Ellipse in Washington, DC."First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me be clear: I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/therecount/status/1851637424151282000">Harris told reporters</a>. "I believe the work that I do is about representing all the people whether they support me or not."Business Insider has reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.

Biden's 'garbage' comment is a gift to Trump

<ul class="summary-list"><li>On <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-watch-for-election-day-harris-trump-congress-2024-11">Election Day 2024</a>, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.</li><li>Vice President Kamala Harris is facing former President Donald Trump.</li></ul>Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.For Vice President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> and former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>, who are facing each other in 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, every vote will be crucial in what is considered a tight race.Both campaigns have been targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/live-results-us-senate-midterm-elections-2022-11">Senate majority</a> and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.Before President Joe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">Biden dropped out</a> of the race for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP's political calculus for the race evolved after the emergence of Harris as the Democratic nominee.And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kevin-mccarthy-lost-speakership-cbs-interview-angered-democrats-votes-2023-10">Kevin McCarthy</a> of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a "chaos" narrative around the party, which doesn't help at the top of the ticket.The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump's political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">abortion rights</a>, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they've even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights.Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-said-abortion-bans-should-be-left-states-2024-4">abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states</a>, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/streaming/where-to-watch-election-results-live-stream-2024">Election results</a> are set to start coming in on Tuesday night, but it could take days before a winner is called.Here's what to know about the seven battleground states that will ultimately determine who wins the race.<h2 id="898f6da7-6aef-4802-9d80-a0b3bf74da20">Arizona</h2>2012 margin: Romney +9.0%2016 margin: Trump +3.5%2020 margin: Biden +0.3%Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.Biden, buoyed by gains among the state's burgeoning <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/young-latino-educated-voters-helped-biden-flip-arizona-trump-election-2020-11">Latino population</a>, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-katie-hobbs-kari-lake-arizona-governor-election-2022-11">Kari Lake</a> in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-mark-kelly-blake-masters-arizona-senate-election-2022-11">Mark Kelly</a> won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.Harris will have to recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state's marquee Senate race, where she's facing Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego.<h2 id="2db802c5-f372-4aac-a96d-982425694dbf">Georgia</h2>2012 margin: Romney +7.8%2016 margin: Trump +5.1%2020 margin: Biden +0.2%For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State's electoral votes falling into their column. No more.While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stacey-abrams-bio-georgia-joe-biden-democrats-voter-registration-election-2020-11">Stacey Abrams</a> — who saw the possibility of a more politically competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year's gubernatorial election.Two years later, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-wins-georgia-democratic-party-south-presidential-election-2020-11">Biden won Georgia</a> by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-jon-ossoff-georgia-senate-shifting-demographics-religion-stimulus-2021-1">2021 runoff victories</a> of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/raphael-warnock-herschel-walker-georgia-senate-runoff-election-results-2022-12">Warnock won</a> a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state's rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.This year, both parties will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-biden-trump-swing-state-election-atlanta-jump-ball-2024-4">have fought hard</a> to capture the state's 16 electoral votes: Democrats have focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans looked to boost their traditional support in the state's rural stretches.Translation: Georgia has remained on everyone's mind this year.<h2 id="746ed130-5944-4a3b-a75d-e8b8a536f565">Michigan</h2>2012 margin: Obama +9.5%2016 margin: Trump +0.2%2020 margin: Biden +2.8%Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.But the party was stunned by Trump's narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.And in November 2022, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party's most impressive victories in the entire country.Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-gretchen-whitmer-tudor-dixon-michigan-governor-election-2022-11">Gretchen Whitmer</a> won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state's 15 electoral votes have been a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state's Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote "uncommitted" instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris' candidacy.<h2 id="662fa2f3-defd-4355-9bae-934ddc230f86">Nevada</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.7%2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%2020 margin: Biden +2.4%Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-steve-sisolak-joe-lombardo-nevada-governor-election-2022-11">Joe Lombardo</a>, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-catherine-cortez-masto-adam-laxalt-nevada-senate-election-2022-11">Catherine Cortez Masto</a> to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party's House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters' minds.<h2 id="4e302a43-e844-46e3-b75c-b5be667c5284">North Carolina</h2>2012 margin: Romney +2.04%2016 margin: Trump +3.7%2020 margin: Trump +1.3%Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama's razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.Democrats have focused heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden's coalition four years ago.However, the GOP is banking on Trump's popularity in the state's rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president's favor if he's able to effectively turn out his supporters.And in addition to the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.<h2 id="10b160e7-a52c-4e12-adfa-b0b6cf0da82c">Pennsylvania</h2>2012 margin: Obama +5.4%2016 margin: Trump +0.7%2020 margin: Biden +1.2%Biden's hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-john-fetterman-mehmet-oz-pennsylvania-us-senate-election-2022-11">John Fetterman</a> to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-pennsylvania-governor-election-2022-11">Josh Shapiro</a> in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state's rural outposts — has been making a major play for Pennsylvania this year.<h2 id="dc1790c5-fa2e-4bc3-8a48-8e88a92bbe00">Wisconsin</h2>2012 margin: Obama +6.9%2016 margin: Trump +0.8%2020 margin: Biden +0.6%Wisconsin is one of the most politically divided states in the country.Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/results-ron-johnson-mandela-barnes-wisconsin-us-senate-election-2022-11">Ron Johnson</a> narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.Both parties have been eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.

The 2024 presidential election may come down to swing states' results. Here's where Trump and Harris lead in the polls.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.</li><li>US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.</li></ul>Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">Polymarket,</a> show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.This turn in sentiment supported the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a>, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com,</a> said in a note on election night."Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda."This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*4j037*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg1ODYyOS4xNDM0LjEuMTczMDg1OTIxMC42MC4wLjA.">an inflationary event.</a> Trump has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.The benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">two-year yield</a> gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">US Dollar Index,</a> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">USD/JPY</a> currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-eur">euro</a> and 3% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-mxn">Mexican peso.</a>Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 1.25% higher, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> were up 1.2%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> gained 1.2%.Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">endorsed digital assets</a> in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group</a> shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter."Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls."Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.

The Trump trade is taking off on election night

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-gop-spending-130-million-2024-10">Donald Trump megadonor Elon Musk's</a> private jet has landed in Florida.</li><li>He will reportedly spend election night with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk's</a> private jet has landed in Florida, where the billionaire will reportedly watch the election results roll in with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.After flying from Austin to Cameron County, Texas — where SpaceX is located and Musk said he voted — earlier this afternoon, Musk's private jet landed in West Palm Beach, according to jet-tracking service <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://jetspy.com/">Jetspy</a>.On Tuesday, The New York Times <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/05/us/politics/elon-musk-trump-election-night.html">reported</a> that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/which-billionaires-support-donald-trump-campaign">Musk, a Trump megadonor</a>, was to spend election night with Trump, citing three sources with knowledge of Musk's schedule. Trump is reportedly hosting a private dinner for donors at his club before he will attend a larger watch event at the Palm Beach Convention Center.Representatives for Musk and Trump's campaigns did not respond to requests for confirmation from Business Insider.Earlier in the day, Musk appeared to take steps to fly incognito when his private jet began using a federal program that allows <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-appears-use-faa-tool-block-jet-tracking-twitter-2022-10">private jet owners to cloak their travels</a> with a temporary aircraft registration number.Musk first signed up for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/celebrities-elon-musk-cant-dodge-jet-tracking-twitter-accounts-ladd-2022-10">free "privacy ICAO aircraft address" program</a>, also known as PIA, through the Federal Aviation Administration in 2022. He <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-appears-no-longer-masking-private-jet-tracking-pia-2023-10">stopped using the program</a> later that year and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-private-jet-flights-hidden-again-faa-2024-7">briefly used the program</a> again in June 2024.<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/student-who-tracks-elon-musk-jet-launching-own-website-2023-2">Jack Sweeney</a>, the jet-tracking college student who gained popularity for tracking Musk's jets, was the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://x.com/Jxck_Sweeney/status/1853914823018586571">first to point out</a> Musk's new PIA on Tuesday.Sweeney told Business Insider that Musk's jets were easily identifiable because Musk's jet continued broadcasting its call sign. Jet spotters like Sweeney are also able to dodge celebrities' efforts to fly incognito using context clues, such as social media posts and airports the planes frequent.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-endorses-trump-after-pennsylvania-rally-incident-2024-7">Musk endorsed Trump</a> in July and has since poured more than $130 million into the election to support the former president and the Republican Party, according to campaign filings.Most of that money — nearly $119 million — has gone to Musk's America PAC, a pro-Trump super PAC that has spent its money on canvassing efforts and digital ads. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-rewards-petition-supporters-1m-check-trump-pac-2024-10">PAC has also vowed to give away $1 million each day</a> to a registered voter who signed a petition to support free speech and the right to bear arms.Musk, who has been a vocal supporter of Trump on his X platform, has shown up on the campaign trail, holding town hall events for the former president and speaking at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-donald-trump-rally-butler-pennsylvania-assassination-attempt-2024-10">Trump rallies in Pennsylvania</a> and New York City.Tesla and SpaceX, companies run by Musk, rely on favorable federal regulations, subsidies, and government contracts. Trump is expected to lower taxes on corporations, and his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">tax plan would likely favor the wealthy.</a>Trump has also suggested he would give Musk an advisory role in the administration, putting him in charge of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-rally-elon-musk-save-department-government-efficiency-2024-10">"department of government efficiency."</a>

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