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It’s a cliché when we say that <keyword id="3658" type="COUNTRY" weightage="100" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> and <keyword id="1334" type="COUNTRY" weightage="100" keywordseo="China">China</keyword> have been two unique political-socio-economic-cultural experiments in human history. It’s quite obvious, after all – never before such large populations have been under the sovereign rule and governed by political systems that are poles apart. And never before two nations with such massive socio-cultural diversity (especially India) have lived in such extreme economic disparity and still remained stable. To that quartet of politics, economics, society and culture, we can now add one more context – science &amp; technology. Interestingly, both of them have created and deployed homegrown technologies to capture the final frontier – the space. 
 China took off back in 2003 while 2013 might be looked upon as the turning point when we truly pitched a tent in space. It doesn’t take <keyword id="9428" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rocket">rocket</keyword> science to imagine that barring a catastrophe on the lines of Hollywood action disasters, rockets will eventually lead to the biggest industry ever for the mankind. China has already leaped ahead of <keyword id="6355311" type="COUNTRY" weightage="80" keywordseo="Japan">Japan</keyword> and Europe by sending many humans into the space while India, with <keyword id="913432" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Chandrayaan-1">Chandrayaan 1</keyword> in 2008 and the recent <keyword id="1506013" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="mangalyaan">Mangalyaan</keyword> (<keyword id="6625456" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Mars-Orbiter-Mission">Mars Orbiter Mission</keyword>), has carved its own lane in the race to capture the <keyword id="2001111" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Global-space-market">global space market</keyword>. 
 The <keyword id="2001134" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Space-market">space market</keyword> consists of two major product/service categories – <keyword id="133588" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="communication-satellites">communication satellites</keyword> and <keyword id="2001117" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Non-communication-satellites">non-communication satellites</keyword>. Communication satellites usually weigh around 4,000-5,000 kg and currently, India does not possess any <keyword id="1542232" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Space-Launch-Vehicle">space launch vehicle</keyword> (aka ‘rocket’) to put modern-day communication satellites into <keyword id="6375157" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Orbit">orbit</keyword>. Non-communication satellites include earth observation, weather, navigation and research satellites. And here’s where India already has assets for big returns. 
 India currently has two broad classes of launch vehicles. One is the workhorse called <keyword id="622933" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Polar-Satellite-Launch-Vehicle">Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle</keyword> (<keyword id="6395832" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="PSLV">PSLV</keyword>), with many proven variants, and the other is the much-touted future giant called <keyword id="1647388" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Geo-synchronous-Satellite-Launch-Vehicle">Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle</keyword> (<keyword id="138322" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="GSLV">GSLV</keyword>), with only one proven variant. Besides Chandrayaan 1 and Mars Orbiter Mission, PSLV has also launched many of our earth observation and weather satellites, along with India’s first ever <keyword id="1723872" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="navigation-satellite">navigation satellite</keyword> (aka <keyword id="911057" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="GPS-satellite">GPS satellite</keyword>, which is actually a name given to the bunch of the <keyword id="2001124" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="US-navigation-satellites">US navigation satellites</keyword> but has become ubiquitous) called <keyword id="2001125" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="IRNSS-1A">IRNSS 1A</keyword>, in July 2013. 
 The PSLV launch score card reads 23 successful endeavours out of 25. And the maximum load PSLV has successfully put in the orbit is 1,850 kg. It has put 64 <keyword id="6358065" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Satellite">satellite</keyword>s in orbit till date – 29 of them are Indian and 35 foreign ones. But here’s the catch. None of the foreign satellite launches were exclusively commercial launches but just mini piggybacks, always along with a major <keyword id="397800" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-satellite">Indian satellite</keyword>. The total mass of all foreign satellites launched by India till date is less than what a single PSLV launch can achieve. 
 Thus, in spite of having the space warhorses born and brought up in our own backyard and ready to scoop out a huge chunk of the space market pie, they’ll turn grey without running many a race, courtesy the stale socialist mindset on which the Indian polity still feeds. But can we really be the tiger in the space Olympics? Check this. India launched its <keyword id="164562" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Mars-mission">Mars mission</keyword> within 15 months of the government’s approval in August 2012. And that, too, when the initial feasibility study had designated GSLV as the launch vehicle. 
 When GSLV was rejected due to technical snags appearing in two successive launches in 2010, PSLV was quickly cleared and made ready to fire within 15 months, along with developing all <keyword id="81047" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="scientific-instruments">scientific instruments</keyword> on MOM and the upgradation of ground-based facilities. Hence, we don’t even need a predator’s eyesight for the hunt as the ground is swarming with potential targets. 
 The <keyword id="2001136" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Global-space-economy">global space economy</keyword>, including <keyword id="2001137" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Satellite-industry-revenues">satellite industry revenues</keyword> and <keyword id="2001138" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Government-budgets">government budgets</keyword>, stood at $304 billion in 2012. The <keyword id="911963" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="satellite-industry">satellite industry</keyword> includes <keyword id="1814082" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="satellite-services">satellite services</keyword>, <keyword id="2001151" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Satellite-manufacturing">satellite manufacturing</keyword> &amp; launch, and ground equipment. Out of these, satellite services largely depend on the state of <keyword id="6355065" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="tv">TV</keyword>, <keyword id="12905" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Radio">radio</keyword>, <keyword id="17591" type="TECHNOLOGY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Broadband">broadband</keyword> and <keyword id="471844" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="mobile-communication">mobile communication</keyword> services, <keyword id="2001147" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Transponder-agreements">transponder agreements</keyword> and other managed services for the home country or others. India mostly leverages its <keyword id="2001148" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Satellite-base">satellite base</keyword> for domestic usage and rarely rents it for <keyword id="2001149" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Foreign-commercial-use">foreign commercial use</keyword>. 
 But where we have already lost ground is <keyword id="2001150" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Satellite-manufacturing-and-launch">satellite manufacturing and launch</keyword> which grew 23% to $14.6 billion and 35% to $6.5 billion, respectively, in 2012 alone. We still can’t launch communications satellites although China has already launched five for other nations. A total of 951 satellites in the earth observation, navigation and weather categories, all in PSLV’s range, are planned to be launched by various governments and private entities during 2009-2018, as per the consultancy firm <keyword id="2001126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Euroconsult">Euroconsult</keyword>’s report in 2009. Five years have elapsed since and with average satellite costs at $99 million and average launch price at $51 million in the previous decade, the lost opportunity costs are mindboggling. 
 So the task is cut out for the future central government. First, it must control the mushrooming of scams like the <keyword id="557071" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Antrix-Devas-deal">Antrix-Devas deal</keyword> – one which tarnished India’s image as a <keyword id="2001106" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="major-space-industry-player">major space industry player</keyword> even before it became one. Second, it must unleash the power of India’s private space industry comprising both manufacturing and services players.

India’s Space Industry – Sleeping
Warhorse Must Wake Up & Run

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Elon Musk banned Jack Sweeney's ElonJet tracking account on Wednesday.</li><li>A new subreddit dedicated to the jet tracker has amassed almost 40,000 members in days.</li></ul>In the wake of Elon Musk <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/man-who-tracks-elon-musk-private-jet-permanently-banned-twitter-2022-12">banning a Twitter account</a> that tracked the location of Musk's private jet, a Reddit page dedicated to the account was one of the fastest-growing subreddits on Friday, according to the data analytics website <a href="https://subredditstats.com/">Subreddit Stats</a>. The page, r/ElonJetTracker, has amassed almost 40,000 members in just two days. Jack Sweeney's ElonJet, created in 2020, was an automated Twitter bot that regularly posted information about Musk's jet flight times and location, found through public flight tracking and transponder data.When Musk announced his intention to acquire Twitter in April, Sweeney <a href="https://www.insider.com/elon-musk-twitter-jet-tracking-jack-sweeney-2022-4">speculated to Insider</a> that Musk might do something about his account — and on Wednesday, he banned ElonJet along with Sweeney's personal accounts and all his other profiles.In the moments after he was banned, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/man-who-tracks-elon-musk-private-jet-permanently-banned-twitter-2022-12">Sweeney told Insider</a> that he was in disbelief and would keep promoting the accounts on other platforms.Musk sparked further condemnation Thursday night and Friday after he <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-suspended-journalists-twitter-space-left-2022-12">suspended a slew of prominent tech journalists</a>, claiming they had participated in <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1603575877538680832">"doxxing" him</a> by reporting on the ElonJet saga. Many critics have called <a href="https://twitter.com/cmclymer/status/1603585991310118912">Musk hypocritical</a> for banning ElonJet and journalist accounts after his long history of saying he would prioritize "free speech" as the head of Twitter, and his decision to pardon a mass of previously banned users, including far-right influencers. The r/ElonJetTracker subreddit, created Wednesday, has a message pinned to the top of the forum with links to all of Sweeney's ElonJet accounts across social media platforms."Given the latest attempt to hide this corporate jet's whereabouts, which is in part funded by US taxpayers, this community will help to keep this publicly available information easily accessible," the subreddit's "About" section says.Many of the top posts on the subreddit on Friday shared the coordinates of Musk's jet and criticized his choice to ban the accounts. One user on the subreddit <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ElonJetTracker/comments/zn2kbt/ive_been_permanently_suspended_for_posting_a_link/">wrote a post</a> with over 1,000 upvotes saying they had been banned from Twitter on Thursday for posting a link to r/ElonJetTracker.Moderators of r/ElonJetTracker did not respond to Insider's requests for comment.In 2021, before Musk took over Twitter in late October this year, he <a href="https://www.insider.com/elon-musk-twitter-jet-tracking-jack-sweeney-2022-4">tried to persuade</a> Sweeney to take down the jet account by offering him $5,000. Sweeney countered with a request for $50,000. After the two couldn't reach an agreement, Musk blocked Sweeney from his personal account.

A new subreddit dedicated to the Elon Musk jet tracker is one of the fastest-growing pages on the website, with almost 40,000 members in 2 days

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A <keyword id="12425898" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="superyacht" source="Orion">superyacht</keyword> linked to Russian oligarch Andrey Guryev has appeared in Antigua, The Observer reported.</li><li>Alfa Nero's tracking system has been turned off since March 3, just before Guryev was sanctioned.</li></ul>A $120 million superyacht linked to sanctioned Russian oligarch Andrey Guryev Sr. has appeared in Antigua more than two months after it turned its location-tracking systems off, according to a report by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/28/revealed-russia-linked-superyachts-going-dark-to-avoid-tracking-systems">The Observer</a>.Freelance journalist and photographer Gemma Handy snapped a photo of the Alfa Nero, the almost 270-foot vessel, anchored by the Caribbean island in the Lesser Antilles in the week ending 22 May.The vessel's last confirmed location was <a href="https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:386710/mmsi:319957000/imo:1009376/vessel:ALFA_NERO">in Sint Maarten on March 3</a>. Since then, the location transmitter has been turned off, The Observer reported.The West <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-russian-oligarchs-why-sanctioned-yachts-jets-putin-ukraine-2022-4?r=US&amp;IR=T">imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia</a> and many of its <keyword id="13281691" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oligarchs" source="Orion">oligarchs</keyword> after the country invaded Ukraine in late February in the hope of putting pressure on President Vladimir Putin to call off the war. The UK sanctioned Guryev on <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-imposes-sweeping-new-sanctions-to-starve-putins-war-machine">April 6</a>, calling him a "known close associate of Vladimir Putin."Guryev, whose wealth <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/andrey-g-guryev/">Bloomberg</a> puts at around $10.1 billion, is the cofounder of fertilizer giant PhosAgro. Through his former position as the deputy chairman of its board he supported the Kremlin by working for a company "carrying on business in a sector of strategic significance to the Government of <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>, namely the Russian chemicals sector," the UK said. Guryev's son, Andrey Guryev Jr., is the current CEO of PhosAgro and has also been sanctioned by the UK.Under the sanctions targeted at wealthy oligarchs, western nations have been seizing some of their assets, including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sanctioned-russian-oligarch-mansion-raid-seized-cash-petr-aven-alfa-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">money</a>, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alexei-mordashov-russia-richest-man-property-seized-italy-oligarch-2022-3?r=US&amp;IR=T">properties</a>, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/300-million-superyacht-owned-by-russian-oligarch-seized-in-fiji-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">superyachts</a>. Tracking down their vessels is possible thanks to AIS (automatic identification system) transmitters, which automatically share information about the vessel's location, speed, and direction of travel with other ships alongside coastal authorities.All ships with a gross tonnage of 300 or more are required to have AIS transmitters turned on for international sailings. Alfa Nero has a gross tonnage of <a href="https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:386710/mmsi:319957000/imo:1009376/vessel:ALFA_NERO">more than 2,000</a>."Ships fitted with AIS shall maintain AIS in operation at all times except where international agreements, rules, or standards provide for the protection of navigational information," according to the <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Safety/Pages/AIS.aspx#:~:text=The%20regulation%20requires%20AIS%20to,ships%20by%2031%20December%202004.">International Maritime Organization</a>.But some <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oligarchs-superyachts-go-into-stealth-mode-to-dodge-sanctions-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">superyachts linked to sanctioned Russian oligarchs</a>, including industrialist Oleg Deripaska, fertilizer magnate Andrey Melnichenko, and former Lukoil CEO Vagit Alekperov, are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oligarchs-superyachts-go-into-stealth-mode-to-dodge-sanctions-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">vanishing from global tracking systems</a> in what appears to be an attempt to avoid sanctions.The Observer reported that six yachts linked to <keyword id="12690587" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russian-oligarchs" source="Orion">Russian oligarchs</keyword>, including Alfa Nero, had disappeared from tracking systems after they were sanctioned by the UK, citing AIS data from tracking company Vessels Value.Guryev Sr. is purported to be the owner of Alfa Nero. The Observer reported that both he and his family have regularly sailed on the vessel in the past, but that he has denied being the owner."The only reason why you would turn off your AIS transponder is if you don't want to be found" or if you want to "sow confusion," John Lusk, COO at vessel-tracking site Spire, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-oligarch-superyacht-leonid-mikhelson-tracking-signals-reappears-data-2022-5?r=US&amp;IR=T">previously told Insider</a>.

A $120 million superyacht linked to a sanctioned Russian oligarch has appeared in Antigua more than 2 months after turning its tracking off

Bengaluru, State-run <keyword id="7803427" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="NewSpace-India">NewSpace India</keyword> Ltd (NSIL), the commercial arm of the space department, bagged orders to launch four foreign satellites for earth observation from <keyword id="6355143" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="sriharikota">Sriharikota</keyword> spaceport in Andhra Pradesh, a top official said on Friday. "We have signed contracts with four foreign customers to launch four satellites in the earth's lower orbit using the PSLV and SSLV rockets of the Indian space agency <keyword id="6358064" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="isro">ISRO</keyword> (<keyword id="116095" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Space-Research-Organisation">Indian Space Research Organisation</keyword>) from its spaceport at Sriharikota," NSIL Chairman G. Narayanan told reporters here. The top official, however, did not disclose names of the customers or their location due to non-disclosure agreements with them. "Of the four satellites, three will be launched using ISRO's polar satellite launch vehicle (PSLV) and one with its small satellite launch vehicle (SSLV). The spacecraft will be used for earth observation applications," said Narayanan, marking the company's two years of completion. The state-run NSIL was in the news recently for launching Brazil's earth observation satellite Amazonia-1 on February 28 from the spaceport on board ISRO's PSLV-C51 rocket along with 18 other satellites. Amazonia-1 is the optical earth observation satellite of National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil. In addition to these commercial launches, NSIL will launch two communication satellites for Indian customers offering direct-to-home (DTH) services and telecom operators offering broadband services using Ku-band transponders. "The two communication satellites, to be launched by ISRO from its spaceport, will be owned and operated by us (NSIL) for customers on commercial terms for revenue-generating services," said Narayanan but declined to name the customers claiming confidentiality. Unlike the now defunct ISRO's commercial arm Antrix Corporation, which has ceased to function after its deal with Multimedia Deval fell through, the 2-year NSIL is a wholly owned state-run of the department of space as a central public sector enterprise. NSIL has been formed with Rs 10 crore paid-up capital and Rs 100-crore authorised capital. The space department has provided Rs 700 crore in the budget for fiscal 2021-22 for investing in infrastructure and capacity building to make satellites, rockets and launch them on commercial terms. "We also plan to invest Rs 2,000 crore per annum over the next five years to ramp up infrastructure to build satellites and rockets, launch them and operate their services for domestic use," asserted Narayanan. The Rs 2,000-crore for investment per annum will be raised through a mix of equity and debt. "We will also ramp up our headcount by hiring about 300 more people for stepping up operations and prepare to launch more satellites and rockets," said Narayanan on the occasion. Going forward, the fledgling company will launch heavy satellites for space applications and observation in the earth's geo-synchronous orbit by state-run and private firms. "The company has generated Rs 300 crore revenue in the first year (2019-20) of operations, Rs 400-crore in the second year (2020-21) amid the Covid pandemic through launches and space-based services from ISRO's satellites," said NSIL Director for technology and strategy D. Radhakrishnan. During its first two years of operations, the company has launched 45 auxiliary customer satellites onboard ISRO's 4 PSLV missions, including Amazonia-1. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/icertis-helps-google-microsoft-and-apple-manage-their-contracts-is-hiring-for-techies-and-people-in-sales/articleshow/79640659.cms">EXCLUSIVE: This Indian unicorn helping Google, Microsoft and Apple manage their contracts is hiring⁠— it needs techies as well as people in sales</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-new-cybersecurity-framework-needs-to-be-more-robust-in-order-to-be-effective-according-to-experts/articleshow/81448577.cms">It has taken over 7 years for India to revamp its cybersecurity policy — experts say there's room for carrots and sticks but not surveillance</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/enterprise/news/gartner-forecasts-ai-will-replace-investor-gut-feel-in-stock-market/articleshow/81442285.cms">Gartner predicts 75% of VCs will be using AI instead of their ‘gut feel’ to make decisions by 2025 — a path that companies are already discovering</a>

ISRO's commercial arm bags orders to launch four foreign satellites as it looks to invest ₹10,000 crore over the next five years

<ul><li>The <keyword id="384988" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Broadcasting-Foundation">Indian Broadcasting Foundation</keyword> has sought Government’s support to deal with the economic crises in the <keyword id="142287" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="television-broadcast">Television Broadcast</keyword> Sector as a fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.</li><li>In a letter to <keyword id="119642" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Prakash-Javadekar">Prakash Javadekar</keyword>, Minister for Information and Broadcasting, IBF has made some requests that will bring some relief to the broadcast industry.</li><li>IBF’s press release suggests that the broadcasting business has been hit both on the demand and supply side which has not only led to cash flow problems but has also resulted in existential crisis for many of IBF’s members. </li></ul> The Indian Broadcasting Foundation (IBF), has sought Government’s support to deal with the economic crises in the Television Broadcast Sector as a fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak in the country. In its letter to Prakash Javadekar, Minister for Information and Broadcasting, IBF has made the following requests: 1. Regulatory moratorium for the sector for at least next 18 months. 2. Phased resumption of production activities. 3. Extension of moratorium period for GST payment. 4. Mandating Digital Payments of Subscription and Advertising dues to Broadcasters. 5. Advisory to DPOs in respect of release of payment of subscription fees for the period upto 29th Feb 2020. 6. Waiver of Processing Fee and Temporary live uplinking fee for live sporting events for a period of one year from the resumption of normal business activities. 7. Increase in time period of one year to two years for operationalization of new channels which have been granted permission. 8. Suspension of requirement of Performance Bank Guarantees in respect of channels sought to be launched for a period of one year. 9. Waiver of Carriage Fee due to Prasar Bharati for 3 months (April, May and June) for FTA Channels on Prasar Bharati’s Free Dish Platform. 10. Deferment of payment due to Prasar Bharati for Free Dish carriage by 31 March 2020 be deferred until July 2020. 11. All pending refunds even exceeding Rs. 5 Lacs should be urgently processed. 12. The 1st installment of advance tax (due on 15 June 2020) should be done away with and taxpayers be allowed to pay the 2nd instalment (due on 15 September 2020) directly without any interest liability. 13. The due date for deposit of TDS for the months of March and April 2020 should be extended to 31 May 2020 without any interest liability. 14. Extension /waiver of permission for FX payments for foreign satellite transponder hiring. 15. Lower rate of TDS from 10% to 2% on subscription revenues. 16. Payment of stamp duty on agreements should be deferred upto expiry of ninety (90) days’ from the date of lifting of nation-wide lockdown. 17. Allow discharge of GST reverse charge obligation through GST input credit rather than paying in cash. 18. Extend all existing stay of income tax demand for next 6 months without any new hearing. Speaking about IBF's request to the government, <keyword id="826998" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="N-P-Singh">N P Singh</keyword>, President-IBF said, “The outbreak of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown have posed several challenges for the Television Broadcast Sector. With complete cessation of production of television shows, cancellations of live sporting events and scheduled advertisements, advertisement bookings nosediving by ~50%; delays in payments by advertising agencies/advertisers and distribution platform operators, the Broadcast sector is facing the brunt of the slowdown." “Moreover, while we welcome the compliance and statutory relaxations granted by the Government in its latest notification of April 15, the Broadcast Sector is seeking a stimulus package from the Government in the form of economic relief and regulatory flexibility so that all Broadcasters especially the smaller businesses can be helped to get back on track. IBF has also requested the Government for reduction in GST rate on Digital services (B2C), automatic refund of input credit and immediate processing and issuance of Lower withholding order (LTDS).” IBF’s press release suggests that the broadcasting business has been hit both on the demand and supply side which has not only led to cash flow problems but has also resulted in existential crisis for many of IBF’s members. IBF members’ cash flow difficulties are further compounded because payments from Bureau of Outreach &amp; Communication (BOC) and other State Government Advertising Agencies/Advertisers running in several hundreds of crores have not been received and IBF has sought MIB’s intervention in expediting these payments. The Government has notified “Print and Electronic Media including broadcasting, DTH and cable services” as one of the “Essential Services” during the lockdown period. However, with employees unable to go to work because of commute restrictions and production schedules halted for programming across the sector, providing uninterrupted entertainment and news to the viewers is posing a challenge to broadcasters. "IBF has submitted a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) on prevention/safety measures for organized, safe and sustainable re-start of Content Production, Media Operations, Transmission and General Office Operations in the TV Broadcast Sector to the PMO, Niti Aayog and MIB,” said Singh. He added, “The SOP will help the sector to move quickly towards normalcy and we certainly hope that the Government would consider it favourably.” The directions of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has not percolated to the District level officers, as a result, the employees involved in the day to-today operations of the broadcasting industry are facing problems in commuting to their work place. This needs to be urgently looked at by the respective State Governments to ease out the operations after strictly following the Standard Operating Procedures as envisaged in the IBF Submission to the Government and also other stringent measures undertaken by the Central and State Governments.

IBF seeks economic relief and rehabilitation package for broadcast sector

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Naval Base Kitsap, a marine base 20 miles from Seattle, may be home to the world's largest single-location arsenal of nuclear weapons, and it's defended by dolphins trained by the US Navy."Nearly one-quarter of America's 9,962 nuclear weapons are now assigned to the Bangor submarine base on Hood Canal, 20 air miles northwest of downtown Seattle," the Seattle Times <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/where-the-nukes-are-20-miles-from-downtown-seattle/">reported</a> in 2006.Bangor was the name of a base that merged with another to form Kitsap in 2004."This makes Bangor the largest nuclear weapons storehouse in the United States, and possibly the world," according to the Seattle Times.The United States' stockpile of nuclear weapons has fallen since 2006 thanks to a series of disarmament agreements with Russia. But most of those about which details are publicly known are equipped for launch via submarine, according to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-threat-of-nuclear-war-is-higher-than-at-any-time-in-the-past-25-years-2015-3">The Economist</a>.That explains why so much of the US stockpile would be positioned in a naval base on the Pacific Ocean, a part of the world towards which the US is in the midst of a strategic <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/top-us-general-plans-to-share-pacific-2013-4">pivot</a>.Navy spokesman Chris Haley told Business Insider that the US Navy has used dolphins to defend the waters around the base since May 2010. Before then, according to another Navy spokesman, trained sea lions were also used to detect unwanted swimmers.The Navy Marine Mammal Program at the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (or SPAWAR) in San Diego, California currently trains <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-navys-combat-dolphins-are-serious-military-assets-2015-3">85 dolphins</a> and 50 sea lions for service in the US Navy.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>When a dolphin finds a swimmer, the animals swim back to their trainers, who might give them a transponder to drop near the intruder.Alternatively, according to Clayton Swansen, a dolphin handler who worked in the Navy program between 2003 and 2005, the marine mammals are equipped with a bite plate that holds a shackle that the dolphins can use to disable an intruder. "They just hit the person in the leg and it attaches around their leg and they can't pull it off until it sends a float up," Swansen told Business Insider.The Navy has used dolphins to defend the American mainland before. The animals even helped provide security for the Republican National Convention of 1996, which took place at the waterside San Diego Convention Center less than a month after a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing">bombing</a> at the summer Olympics in Atlanta. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-allen-microsoft-discovers-battleship-japan-world-war-2015-3">Here's what Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen actually found at the bottom of the ocean in the Philippines</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="BmdzFyczpQ-4AzSpG2AiKMbH0Xk6GnaJ" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Military dolphins help defend the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons

Welcome to <keyword id="34991" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="transportation">Transportation</keyword> &amp; Logistics Briefing, a new M-W-F morning email providing the latest news, data, and insight on how digital technology is disrupting transportation and delivery, produced by BI Intelligence.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/top-5-disruptive-trends-shaping-transportation-and-logistics?IR=T&amp;utm_source=businessinsider&amp;utm_medium=content_marketing&amp;utm_term=content_marketing_subscription_text_link_transportation-and-logistics-briefing-gms-first-self-driving-car-model-new-regulatory-guidelines-for-self-driving-cars-thermal-sensors-for-fully-driverless-vehicles-2017-9&amp;utm_content=content_marketing_subscription_text_link&amp;utm_campaign=content_marketing_subscription_link&amp;vertical=transportation">Get the free Top 5 Disruptive Trends Shaping Transportation &amp; Logistics report and start receiving our brand new Transportation &amp; Logistics newsletter.</a>Have feedback? We'd like to hear from you. Write me at: <a href="mailto:jcamhi@businessinsider.com">jcamhi@businessinsider.com</a>.TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PUTS CRITICAL SELF-DRIVING TECH ON HOLD: Government efforts to mandate vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication technology have stalled under the Trump administration, according to a new Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/best-self-driving-tech-going-nowhere-as-rules-stall-under-trump">report</a>. V2V technology, considered critical for self-driving cars, creates a shared network between different cars, allowing them to continuously share vital safety information, such as their current speed, position within a lane, and data from their sensors and cameras. That makes the technology a key enabler of fully driverless cars that don't require human intervention.Regulators under the Obama administration had been pushing a mandate for all new cars to be equipped with V2V transponders by 2023, but the Trump administration has put those efforts on hold, auto industry executives told Bloomberg. The Department of Transportation's (DoT) recently <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/13069a-ads2.0_090617_v9a_tag.pdf">updated</a> self-driving car guidelines don't even mention V2V technology. DoT Secretary Elaine Chao has also suggested that the federal government will leave it up to states to draft rules around vehicle-to-infrastructure communication, a similar technology that allows cars to communicate with stop lights and other road infrastructure. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has given no indication about next steps about moving forward with the mandate, even though many automakers and auto suppliers support it, Bloomberg reported. Some automakers, including Tesla, have come out against the mandate though, arguing that it may force the industry to adopt V2V and ignore possible alternatives.Without a mandate and industry-wide standard for V2V communication, automakers are delaying their V2V implementations. Ford, for instance, has put a hold on installing V2V technology in its vehicles, which can cost up to $350 per vehicle. Without a common standard adopted by all automakers, cars made by different manufacturers may not be able to communicate with each other, diminishing the V2V's value. And, if the technology can't deliver important safety benefits, automakers will have a hard time convincing consumers to pay extra for it.Lack of V2V standards could prove a major road block as automakers and tech companies look to launch driverless vehicles. Many companies, including Waymo, are determined to skip semi-autonomous vehicles and bring self-driving cars to market that require little to no intervention from a driver. Eliminating the driver is also key to enabling the benefits of self-driving cars for mobility services like ride-hailing. However, V2V technology is critical for safety when the driver is removed from the equation. So it is unlikely companies will be able to mass produce driverless cars until V2V standards are implemented.Enjoy reading this briefing? <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/transportation-and-logistics-briefing" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sign up and receive Transportation &amp; Logistics Briefing to your inbox.</a>TESLA TURNS TO AMD FOR AI CHIPS: Tesla is working with chipmaker AMD to build its own graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs) to lessen its reliance on Nvidia, another chip designer prominent in AI and self-driving cars, according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/20/tesla-building-an-ai-chip-for-its-cars-with-amd-globalfoundries.html">CNBC</a>. The companies will work together to design computing systems based on the x86 architecture, which was originally developed by Intel, that Tesla will eventually own intellectual property (IP) rights to. Tesla has relied on Nvidia for the graphics processors in its cars since <a href="http://www.nvidia.com/object/tesla-and-nvidia.html">shortly after</a> the original Model S was released in 2012.Here are the implications of this news for all three companies:<ul><li>While the deal itself won't hurt Nvidia significantly right now, it could threaten its long-term position in the market. Nvidia has moved to the forefront of self-driving technology, with agreements to supply its GPUs and Drive PX2 computing system to a number of automakers, including Volvo, Toyota, and Audi. GPUs are critical for self-driving cars because of their ability to process large quantities of visual data very quickly. While Tesla is one of its smaller auto partners in terms of size, the electric carmaker is considered a leader in developing autonomous cars. Tesla's move could prompt Nvidia's other auto partners to take a closer look at AMD as an alternative to Nvidia, which has been the dominant player in the market so far.</li><li>Meanwhile, building its own computing systems is part of Tesla's larger effort to wean itself off third-party suppliers and do more in-house. Tesla has been winding down its relationships with third-party suppliers and building more self-driving technologies in-house. Last fall, it broke off its relationship with Israeli LiDAR designer Mobileye, which supplies camera and sensor technology for self-driving cars. Building and owning the IP for its own processors is just the latest move in this effort.</li><li>But AMD could be the big winner of this development. This is AMD's first foray into the auto industry. The company can offer a compelling package for automakers as it is the only player that can offer both x86 CPU and strong GPU IP and expertise, according to Jefferies Analyst <a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiKq-3e3rbWAhWo7YMKHYiaCh0QqOcBCCYwAA&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2017%2F09%2F21%2Fwall-street-is-gushing-over-amd-on-its-a-i-chip-relationship-with-tesl">Mark Lipacis</a>. If the GPUs and CPUs that Tesla builds with AMD help the automaker accelerate its AI and self-driving car development, AMD will be well-positioned to score more partnerships with automakers. It's worth noting that Tesla's head of AI, Jim Keller, spent many years at AMD and likely helped secure the partnership. </li></ul><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="BI Intelligence" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/59bacb5738d20d1f008b631a-960/07052017-teslaq2shipments.png"></a>BI Intelligence</div></div></div>MATTERNET SET TO ESTABLISH PERMANENT DRONE DELIVERY NETWORK IN SWITZERLAND: US-based drone delivery startup Matternet will begin operating a commercial drone delivery network for medical samples in Switzerland next month, Tech Crunch <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/20/matternets-autonomous-delivery-drones-can-now-refuel-and-reload-by-themselves/">reports</a>. The network will speed up the delivery of critical medical samples, such as blood tests, by using autonomous drones to avoid potential road traffic delays. Matternet's drones can fly up to 12 miles at speeds up to 43 mph, allowing patients and doctors to get test results much more quickly, according to the startup.The delivery network will use Matternet's newly unveiled base stations, where drones can dock, pick up or drop off deliveries, and swap out batteries. The stations, which can be built on the ground or on hospitals' rooftops, allow the drones to make their deliveries with minimal human effort. New packages are placed into a drawer and labeled with a QR code that tells the drone the package's destination. Workers only need to place samples into special storage containers and drop them in the drawer. The drones can autonomously retrieve fully charged batteries from a small storage bay built into the stations. The drones and base stations can also communicate with each other via a shared network, allowing the base stations to coordinate landings between multiple incoming drones. Matternet will operate the network in partnership with Swiss Post, and plans to market its drones, base stations, and supporting cloud software as an all-in-one drone delivery solution to logistics companies. The startup plans to explore partnerships with logistics companies in the UK and Germany. European regulators have been more friendly to drone delivery programs than their US counterparts, which is why Amazon decided to launch its initial drone delivery tests in the UK. Matternet has a strong value proposition in speeding up critical medical deliveries that should help it attract new business partners and gain regulators' blessing.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image on-image"><a title_source="BII" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/596e362a552be5b6088b5004-960/drone delivery consumer.png"></a>BII</div></div></div>In other news…<ul><li>Chinese search giant Baidu <a href="https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/09/21/1125651/0/en/Baidu-Announces-Apollo-1-5-and-a-10-Billion-yuan-Autonomous-Driving-Fund.html">launched</a> a $1.5 billion fund to accelerate the progress of its self-driving car efforts. The fund, dubbed Apollo 1.5, will invest in 100 autonomous driving technology projects over the next three years. The company also launched an open-sourced platform for the software and artificial intelligence (AI) behind self-driving cars. The fund should help the company accelerate the progress of those technologies and gain a leg up on Didi Chuxing, one of its primary self-driving car rivals in China.</li><li>Best Logistics, the Chinese logistics firm that Alibaba owns a 23% stake in, cut its planned IPO price from $713 million to $447 million, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-backed-chinese-logistics-firm-best-slashes-ipo-plan-1505833194?mod=djemlogistics&amp;mg=prod/accounts-wsj">The Wall Street Journal</a>. The company initially filed for an IPO back in June. In addition to being its largest investor, Alibaba is also its largest client, accounting for about 70% of the company's express deliveries from January to March of this year. The pullback seems to stem from investor concerns over increasingly intense competition in China's fragmented logistics business.</li><li>Fedex said that a cyber attack in June on its Netherlands-based TNT Express subsidiary cost the company $300 million, prompting it to revise its profit forecasts down for the rest of the year, according to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fedex-takes-earnings-hit-following-cyberattack-1505857258?mod=djemlogistics">The Wall Street Journal</a>. The company acquired TNT for $4.8 billion back in 2015 to expand its presence in Europe. On a call with analysts, CFO Alan Graf said the company is considering purchasing cyber insurance to prevent future attacks from causing the same level of damage to the company.</li></ul><div id="categorypromo"><h2><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/top-5-disruptive-trends-shaping-transportation-and-logistics">Click here to receive a FREE download of The Top 5 Disruptive Trends Shaping Transportation and Logistics from BI Intelligence, Business Insider's premium research service.</a></h2></div>

TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS BRIEFING: Trump administration stalls critical self-driving car tech - Tesla developing its own AI chips - Matternet's new drone delivery network

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomson ReutersWant to fly to war-torn Damascus? Your options are limited.</div></div></div>It's hard to fly to Damascus these days.Even if Russia's military intervention in the country has the ruling Assad regime breathing easier after months of infighting, manpower shortages, and territorial losses, Syria's government is still one of the most diplomatically isolated in the world.Syrian Airlines, the country's flag carrier, is under <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32012R0673">European Union sanctions</a> that prevent it from flying to most European destinations. The chairman of Cham Wings, one of Syria's two independent carriers, is under US sanctions as well. FlyDamas, Syria's only other passenger airline, launched in April but its website is <a href="http://www.flydamas.com/">under construction</a>. Still, these limited commercial air travel options provide Syrians in regime-controlled areas with access to the outside world, allowing the Assad government to maintain some limited sense normalcy amid the country's violent disintegration.And it gives Assad and his international supporters continuing cover for aerial resupply of the regime - particularly through an Iranian commercial airline that also flies to a number of European Union countries.As Emanuele Ottolenghi, a senior fellow at the Foundation for <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> of Democracies explained to Business Insider, Iranian-based <a href="http://www.mahan.aero/en/">Mahan Air</a> has operated a number of flights between cities in Iran and Syria.The flights don't leave on a set schedule, and the planes sometimes don't broadcast their actual destination - or any destination at all, as in the case of this October 8th Mahan flight from Baghdad to Damascus that Business Insider observed:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>"A few times they have broadcast the Tehran Baghdad route then actually flew on to Damascus," Ottolenghi told Business Insider.In another instance, an aircraft broadcasting the code for a Tehran-Damascus flight landed instead in Latakia, a strategic city in the regime-controlled Syrian coast.Ottolenghi spotted a flight on September 19th flying under a Tehran-to-Damascus flight number that instead landed in Abadan, a city in an Arabic-speaking section of Iran that is also home to an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps naval base:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Emanuele Ottolenghi, with screenshots from Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>On September 4th, Ottolenghi documented a Mahan plane that flew from Tehran to Abadan before taking off for Damascus.At some point, it switched its transponder off, and then reappeared near Latakia, its eventual destination:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Emanuele Ottolenghi, with screenshot from Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>This activity is well known: Mahan has been under various forms of US sanctions since 2011 for its involvement in "shipping arms to the Syrian government; ferrying members of Iran's elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and providing transport for the Lebanese militia Hezbollah," according to the Wall Street Journal. \It will stay on the US sanctions list even after the implementation of the nuclear deal.And four years into the Syrian Civil War, Mahan Airlines planes are undertaking odd-houred flights to Syria that don't follow their broadcast itinerary - a deception that runs counter to accepted international civil aviation practice. "It's not that Mahan Air flies to Damascus every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday," Ottolenghi says. "It happens on random days and at different hours."<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Mohamed al-SayaghiAn Airbus A310 of Iranian private airline Mahan Air taxis at Sanaa International airport following its first flight to Yemen from Iran, in Sanaa March 1, 2015.</div></div></div> Neither is there any apparent pattern to the frequency with which the flights occur. In September, Ottolenghi observed a period of increased traffic - followed by a ten-day span in which he didn't observe any flights.Mahan has another important connection to Syria, aside from these flights. On May 21st, Issam Shammout, a Syrian businessman and the <a href="http://www.arabaviation.com/en-us/countrybriefs/syria/chamwingsairlines.aspx">chairman of Cham Wings</a>, was <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl10061.aspx">placed under US sanctions</a> for his role in facilitating the illegal sale of aircraft to Mahan Air.Shammout had used a Dubai-based front company and an Iraqi-based private airline to help direct the sale of nine passenger aircraft to Mahan, in violation of international sanctions against the airline. Eight of the aircraft are Airbus passenger jets capable of long-haul travel that used to fly with Virgin Atlantic airlines. On October 8th, Ottolenghi spotted <a href="https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/Airbus/A340/391/EP-MMH-Mahan-Airlines">one of the planes procured through that illict transaction</a> flying between Tehran and Damascus, which Business Insider then tracked:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>The US considers Mahan to be a criminal operation and with good cause. A <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/239410.htm">state-sponsor of terrorism</a> uses its aircraft to aid one of the most oppressive governments in the world. Mahan itself has benefited from an illicit supply chain that extended into Europe.The EU, however, takes a different view. The airline isn't currently under EU sanctions and actually flies to a few EU cities. According to its website, and to Ottolenghi's research, Mahan Air takes passengers to Athens, Dusseldorf, Munich, and Milan.<a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2015/09/16/u-s-official-stresses-remaining-sanctions-on-iran/">In a speech in September</a>, Adam Szubin, the Treasury Department's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, emphasized that European companies and banks that did business with Mahan left themselves open to US secondary sanctions: "We will continue to expose Mahan's front companies, and to remind governments and private industry in the 24 cities where Mahan continues to fly that they risk exposure to US sanctions," Szubin said. The enforcement of secondary US sanctions over European business with Iran has long been a sticking point in trans-Atlantic relations. In 1996, controversy erupted over the the US imposition of sanctions on Iran and Libya, as European countries whose companies were invested in Iran and Libya were concerned about US legal exposure from the recently passed <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/isa_1996.pdf">Iran-Libya Sanctions Act</a>.A brewing trans-Atlantic dispute was only resolved when President Bill Clinton's administration <a href="http://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/default/files/Sanctions%20and%20Relief%2011-8-13%20%282%29.pdf">signed an executive agreement</a> specifically exempting European companies from the law. Several European countries have actually passed laws <a href="http://www.stetson.edu/law/lawreview/media/u-s-secondary-sanctions-the-u-k-and-e-u-response.pdf">prohibiting companies from complying with US sanctions</a>, giving an additional layer of protection to US-sanctioned entities that do business in the EU.One of Assad's lifelines is relatively free to operate in European markets. And within Syria, the regime still has Syrian Airlines' Russian-built cargo planes, which have been seen flying between Damascus and Qamishli, a town in Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria and the <a href="http://mondediplo.com/blogs/qamishli-s-cold-war">site of an air base</a> that may still be under some degree of Assad regime control.Here's one such flight that Business Insider tracked on October 8th:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>Then there are the small handful passenger aircraft that Cham Wings and FlyDamas operate, and which fly to a number of Middle Eastern cities, including Amman, Muscat, and Kuwait City.Interestingly, Cham Wings, which leases its planes from a Ukrainian company called Dart Air, flies in and out of Qamishli as well:<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Flight Radar 24</div></div></div>Getting to Damascus by air isn't straightforward these days. But the Assad regime still has access to the skies - a gateway to the rest of the world and a means of reassuring its remaining public that it can still forge some kind of normal existence for its citizens.But more importantly, the flights let Assad and Iran manipulate the civil aviation system to allow the Syrian regime to hold out for as long as possible against a determined armed opposition. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tourists-captured-by-gunmen-at-a-philippine-resort-2015-9">Footage shows tourists captured by gunmen at a Philippine resort</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="1pdWludzr-Z739unKqQFZY7SiOx7B73s" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

This Iranian airline is one of the Assad regime's lifelines

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image">ReutersA Kurdish Peshmerga fighter stands near a wall on which the black flag commonly used by Islamic State militants have been painted over, in the northern Iraqi town of Zumar on October 26, 2014. The town had recently been retaken from the Islamic State.</div></div>As 2015 wraps up, here's a look at are our 12 predictions for this past year. This post was <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/12-geopolitical-predictions-about-2015-2014-12" target="_blank">originally published</a> on December 29, 2014. If 2014 proved anything, it's that guessing at the state of the world a year down the line is a vain or even slightly embarrassing endeavor.Indeed, who could have expected a year ago that Russia would take over Crimea, ISIS would break out of Al Qaeda and declare a caliphate, the US would start bombing Syria and Iraq while approaching a nuclear deal with Iran,or that Ebola would ravaged three west African countries and scare the world?Nevertheless, we're going to do our best to predict the big geopolitical stories of 2015:<h3><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/author/armin-rosen" target="_blank">Armin Rosen</a></h3>1. The Islamic State will lose control of Mosul. The US will continue to increase the number of "advisors" on the ground in Baghdad while upgrading "coordination" with Iran in preparation for a surprise push against the city in mid-2015.The US-Kurdish-Iraqi-Iranian assault will succeed in dislodging ISIS but not in totally defeating the group.<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_left"><div class="image">Nir Elias/ReutersVictorious - but weaker than ever.</div></div>2. The Israeli elections end in chaos. A rejuvenated Labor party will win the most seats in the Knesset - but will fail to form a government, thanks to centrist and ultra-orthodox parties refusing to join one another in a coalition.Meanwhile, the insurgent Gideon Sa'ar will narrowly fail to dislodge Netanyahu as head of Likud, meaning that the Prime Minister will enter his third term in the weakest position of his political career.He will respond by entering into an unusual deal with Labor that makes the pro-peace process Tzipi Livni his foreign minister while committing the government to taking a superficially serious go at negotiating with the Palestinians. The Palestinians will quietly accede to a watered-down version of their pending UN resolution demanding an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and enter into proximity talks with the Israelis. To no one's shock, these negotiations will go nowhere.3. Tensions explode between Greece and Turkey over disputed gas deposits in the Aegean Sea. By the end of the year, the waters off of the north of Cyprus will be thoroughly militarized with a South China Sea-like face-off between two prideful and desperate countries that are also NATO allies.The escalation will end any discussion of constructing liquid natural gas terminals in Cyprus or pipelines in the northeastern Mediterranean. This will in turn make countries reluctant to sanction Russia's energy industry and indirectly benefit Vladimir Putin.4. The year will end with no nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. Ayatollah Khamenei won't go all the way on a deal, while the P5+1, which will drop its demands on the disclosure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps role in the country's nuclear program, won't be able to stomach Iran's requirement of a 10-year sunset clause and an insistence on plutonium reprocessing rights.The biggest foreign policy initiative of Obama's second term will basically end in failure, leading him to spend a lot more time focusing on lower-hanging fruit like rapprochement with Cuba - which he'll visit in September, at the beginning of the Caribbean tourism season.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Goran TomasevicSouth Sudan could be the site of Africa's next famine.</div></div></div>5. Famine grips the conflict-affected parts of South Sudan. A stalled peace process, plummeting oil production, and the prospect of US and <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> sanctions will leave the government of the world's newest nation in its most dire position since the country gained independence in 2011.Meanwhile, two missed growing seasons, interrupted supply lines, and increasing food prices will lead to east Africa's worst food emergency since the Somali famine of 2011.6. Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika dies. The longest-serving president in Algerian history has been in ill health and has barely been seen in public since his "re-election" in April of last year. It's likely he hasn't really been running things for awhile now.Despite widespread protests in Algeria during the Arab Spring period the putative president's death will have little actual impact on the country, whose socialist military government has successfully insulated Algeria against much of the chaos in neighboring Mali and Libya. 7. Putin's Eurasian Union slinks into the background. A sinking ruble will convince Armenia to indefinitely delay its membership in the Russian president's Eurasian Customs Union. The US will dangle the possibility of sanctions relief in front of Belarus as well in the hopes that the country's authoritarian and traditionally pro-Russian government switches sides. The war in Ukraine will continue but Eurasianism as a project will die in 2015.8. Afghanistan goes better than expected. The social and political dividend from this year's peaceful transfer of power to new president Ashraf Ghani, alongside a backstop of over 10,000 US troops and increased Pakistani operations against Taliban forces operating from their territory will prevent the kind of precipitous backsliding that many feared would accompany the end of NATO combat operations.<h3><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/author/jeremy-bender" target="_blank">Jeremy Bender</a></h3><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">Mark Metcalfe/Getty ImagesExpect more scenes like this - from the Syndey hostage situation in December - in 2015.</div></div></div>9. ISIS will slowly evolve into a more al Qaeda-like organization: As it loses ground in the Middle East, it'll focus on terrorism abroad. This past year saw the proliferation of "lone wolf" attacks that may or may not be related to ISIS but were at least inspired by the group - car attacks in France and Canada, a hostage situation in Australia, and a shooting in Ottawa.This shift in tactics will continue as ISIS loses ground and calls on its supporters overseas to launch attacks, as it did this past September. 10. Countries will be compelled to intervene in Libya, again. The spread of ISIS into Libya, the collapse of any central authority, the presence of two competing governments, numerous Islamic groups, a renegade general, and the proliferation of weapons from the country to terrorist hotspots around the world will lead to foreign troops again being deployed to the country. Egypt and the UAE have already carried out airstrikes against Islamist targets in Libya. As the political situation continues to deteriorate and the chaos from Libya threatens the stability of neighboring countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Niger, outside powers will be convinced that they have to act. Most likely, Egypt and the UAE will continue carrying out aerial operations. Europe could also become involved in military efforts in Libya as any ongoing chaos in Libya is not too far removed from the shores of southern Europe.<h3><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/author/pierre-bienaim" target="_blank">Pierre Bienaimé</a></h3><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_left"><div class="image on-image">Pierre Crom/Getty ImagesAnother Russian-linked aviation disaster could rock the world next year.</div></div>11. Another airborne disaster ratchets up the tension between Russia and the rest of the world. The crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was uniquely horrific.But Russia and its proxies nearly brought down civilian aircraft at other points in 2014 and could easily do so next year.Last March, a Russian military plane nearly collided with a Swedish commercial jet carrying 132 passengers. Disaster "was apparently avoided thanks only to good visibility and the alertness of the passenger plane pilots," according to a <a href="http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/medialibrary/2014/11/09/6375e3da/Dangerous%20Brinkmanship.pdf">European Leadership Network report</a> on the "dangerous brinkmanship" between Russia and the West.Another close call came in early December, again involving a Swedish passenger plane and a Russian aircraft that had turned off its transponders - the devices by which planes announce their location in order to avoid exactly these sorts of disasters.On the military side, NATO member states have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-flies-provocative-aerial-operations-2014-11" target="_blank">scrambled</a> planes to intercept Russian incursions three times more frequently in 2014 than in the year prior. Each confrontation had its own small window for a potential disaster with wide political and security implications.The more confrontations like this in European skies, the greater a chance for a repeat of the MH17 disaster in the new year.12. Obama and Turkey collaborate to create a buffer zone in northern Syria. "My presidency is entering the fourth quarter," Obama told reporters at a year's end conference. "Interesting stuff happens in the fourth quarter, and I'm looking forward to it."Running with the president's sports analogy, his foreign policy toward the Middle East can be summarized as overtures in the first quarter ("<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html?pagewanted=all" target="_blank">a new beginning</a> between the United States and Muslims around the world"), selective support for some of the Arab Spring's new movements in the second, and indecision in the face of civil wars in both Syria and Iraq in the third.Part of the game-plan for the fourth started to emerge late this year: Iraqi special forces trained by the US would <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/middleeast/iraqi-officials-push-to-take-fight-to-isis-in-mosul-as-us-urges-restraint.html">begin their push for ISIS territory</a> in the spring, despite local forces <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/middleeast/iraqi-officials-push-to-take-fight-to-isis-in-mosul-as-us-urges-restraint.html" target="_blank">eager</a> to take the fight to the extremists sooner in Mosul.Alongside this trained force in Iraq, a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tony-badran-obama-making-his-allies-look-like-chumps-2014-11" target="_blank">no-fly zone</a> - which Turkish officials see as a means to turn the tide against Assad - offers the Obama administration another way of addressing the deep political problems of the region with the help of its allies.

12 big geopolitical events we thought would happen in 2015

If 2014 proved anything, it's that guessing at the state of the world a year down the line is a vain or even slightly embarrassing endeavor.
Indeed, who could have expected a year ago that Russia would take over Crimea, ISIS would break out of Al Qaeda and declare a caliphate, the US would start bombing Syria and Iraq while approaching a nuclear deal with Iran,or that Ebola would ravaged three west African countries and scare the world?
Nevertheless, we're going to do our best to predict the big geopolitical stories of 2015:
Armin Rosen:
The Islamic State will lose control of Mosul. The US will continue to increase the number of "advisors" on the ground in Baghdad while upgrading "coordination" with Iran in preparation for a surprise push against the city in mid-2015. The US-Kurdish-Iraqi-Iranian assault will succeed in dislodging ISIS but not in totally defeating the group.
The Israeli elections end in chaos.&#xa0;A rejuvenated Labor party will win the most seats in the Knesset - but will fail to form a government, thanks to centrist and ultra-orthodox parties refusing to join one another in a coalition. Meanwhile, the insurgent Gideon Sa'ar will narrowly fail to dislodge Netanyahu as head of Likud, meaning that the Prime Minister will enter his third term in the weakest position of his political career. He will respond by entering into an unusual deal with Labor that makes the pro-peace process Tzipi Livni his foreign minister while committing the government to taking a superficially serious go at negotiating with the Palestinians. The Palestinians will quietly accede to a watered-down version of their pending UN resolution demanding an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and enter into proximity talks with the Israelis. To no one's shock, these negotiations will go nowhere.
Tensions explode between Greece and Turkey over disputed gas deposits in the Aegean Sea. By the end of the year, the waters off of the north of Cyprus will be thoroughly militarized with a South China Sea-like face-off between two prideful and desperate countries that are also NATO allies. The escalation will end any discussion of constructing liquid natural gas terminals in Cyprus or pipelines in the northeastern Mediterranean. This will in turn make countries reluctant to sanction Russia's energy industry and indirectly benefit Vladimir Putin.
The year will end with no nuclear agreement between the US and Iran.&#xa0;Ayatollah&#xa0;Khamenei won't go all the way on a deal, while the P5+1, which will drop its demands on the disclosure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps role in the country's nuclear program, won't be able to stomach Iran's requirement of a 10-year sunset clause and an insistence on plutonium reprocessing rights. The biggest foreign policy initiative of Obama's second term will basically end in failure, leading him to spend a lot more time focusing on lower-hanging fruit like rapprochement with Cuba - which he'll visit in September, at the beginning of the Caribbean tourism season.

Famine grips the conflict-affected parts of South Sudan.&#xa0;A stalled peace process, plummeting oil production, and the prospect of US and <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> sanctions will leave the government of the world's newest nation in its most dire position since the country gained independence in 2011. Meanwhile, two missed growing seasons, interrupted supply lines, and increasing food prices will lead to east Africa's worst food emergency since the Somali famine of 2011.
Algeria's Abdelaziz Bouteflika dies.&#xa0;The longest-serving president in Algerian history has been in ill health and has barely been seen in public since his "re-election" in April of last year. It's likely he hasn't really been running things for awhile now. Despite widespread protests in Algeria during the Arab Spring period the putative president's death will have little actual impact on the country, whose socialist military government has successfully insulated Algeria against much of the chaos in neighboring Mali and Libya.&#xa0;
Putin's Eurasian Union slinks into the background. A sinking ruble will convince Armenia to indefinitely delay its membership in the Russian president's Eurasian Customs Union. The US will dangls the possibility of sanctions relief in front of Belarus as well in the hopes that the country's authoritarian and traditionally pro-Russian government switches sides. The war in Ukraine will continue but Eurasianism as a project will die in 2015.
Afghanistan goes better than expected.&#xa0;The social and political dividend from this year's peaceful transfer of power to new president Ashraf Ghani, alongside a backstop of over 10,000 US troops and increased Pakistani operations against Taliban forces operating from their territory will prevent the kind of precipitous backsliding that many feared would accompany the end of NATO combat operations.
<h3>Jeremy Bender:&#xa0;</h3>
ISIS will slowly evolve into a more al Qaeda-like organization: As it loses ground in the Middle East, it'll focus on terrorism abroad. &#xa0;This past year saw&#xa0;the proliferation of "lone wolf" attacks that may or may not be related to ISIS but were at least inspired by the group - car attacks in France and Canada, a hostage situation in Australia, and a shooting in Ottawa.
This shift in tactics will continue as ISIS loses ground and calls on its supporters overseas to launch attacks, as it did this past September.&#xa0;
Countries will be compelled to intervene in Libya, again.&#xa0;The spread of ISIS into Libya, the collapse of any central authority, the presence of two competing governments, numerous Islamic groups, a renegade general, and the proliferation of weapons from the country to terrorist hotspots around the world will lead to foreign troops again being deployed to the country.&#xa0;
Egypt and the UAE have already carried out airstrikes against Islamist targets in Libya. As the political situation continues to deteriorate and the chaos from Libya threatens the stability of neighboring countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Niger, outside powers will be convinced that they have to act.&#xa0;
Most likely, Egypt and the UAE will continue carrying out aerial operations. Europe could also become involved in military efforts in Libya as any ongoing chaos in Libya is not too far removed from the shores of southern Europe.
<h3>Pierre Bienaime:</h3>
Another airborne disaster ratchets up the tension between Russia and the rest of the world.&#xa0;The crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was uniquely horrific. But Russia and its proxies nearly brought down civilian aircraft at other points in 2014 and could easily do so next year.
Last March, a Russian military plane nearly collided with a Swedish commercial jet carrying 132 passengers. Disaster "was apparently avoided thanks only to good visibility and the alertness of the passenger plane pilots," according to a <a href="http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/medialibrary/2014/11/09/6375e3da/Dangerous%20Brinkmanship.pdf">European Leadership Network report</a> on the "dangerous brinkmanship" between Russia and the West.
Another close call came in early December, again involving a Swedish passenger plane and a Russian aircraft that had turned off its transponders - the devices by which planes announce their location in order to avoid exactly these sorts of disasters.
On the military side, NATO member states have&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-flies-provocative-aerial-operations-2014-11" target="_blank">scrambled</a>&#xa0;planes to intercept Russian incursions three times more frequently in 2014 than in the year prior. Each confrontation had its own small window for a potential disaster with wide political and security implications.
The more confrontations like this in European skies, the greater a chance for a repeat of the MH17 disaster in the new year.
Obama and Turkey collaborate to create a buffer zone in northern Syria.&#xa0;"My presidency is entering the fourth quarter," Obama told reporters at a year's end conference. "Interesting stuff happens in the fourth quarter, and I'm looking forward to it."
Running with the president's sports analogy, his foreign policy toward the Middle East can be summarized as overtures in the first quarter ("<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/04/us/politics/04obama.text.html?pagewanted=all" target="_blank">a new beginning</a>&#xa0;between the United States and Muslims around the world"), selective support for some of the Arab Spring's new movements in the second, and indecision in the face of civil wars in both Syria and Iraq in the third.
Part of the game-plan for the fourth started to emerge late this year: Iraqi special forces trained by the US would <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/middleeast/iraqi-officials-push-to-take-fight-to-isis-in-mosul-as-us-urges-restraint.html">begin their push for ISIS territory</a> in the spring, despite local forces&#xa0;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/world/middleeast/iraqi-officials-push-to-take-fight-to-isis-in-mosul-as-us-urges-restraint.html" target="_blank">eager</a>&#xa0;to take the fight to the extremists sooner in Mosul.
Alongside this trained force in Iraq, a&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tony-badran-obama-making-his-allies-look-like-chumps-2014-11" target="_blank">no-fly zone</a>&#xa0;- which Turkish officials see as a means to turn the tide against Assad - offers the Obama administration another way of addressing the deep political problems of the region with the help of its allies. &#xa0;&#xa0;&#xa0;

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