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<table class="image-container float_right" width="200"><tr><td><div class="image"></div><a href="http://isharesblog.com/blog/2012/04/25/3-reasons-to-consider-emerging-market-bonds-video/">BlackRock via YouTube</a>Russ Koesterich</td></tr></table>The economic world is still digesting the fact that one of the most popular economic papers of the last decade contained a math error.
We're talking about <keyword id="218382" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ken-Rogoff">Ken Rogoff</keyword> and <keyword id="111766" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Carmen-Reinhart">Carmen Reinhart</keyword>'s paper that argued heavy government debt loads are correlated to decelerations in economic growth.
It's worth noting that the basic findings of their paper still hold. It's just the debt threshold has been raised.
Anti-austerians have piled on. But BlackRock's <keyword id="1038912" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Russ-Koesterich">Russ Koesterich</keyword> warns that it would be a mistake to disregard Reinhart and Rogoff.
"While Reinhart and Rogoff have publicly admitted mistakes in their methodology, their paper’s basic conclusion still holds: Excessive government debt is likely to be an impediment to a country’s growth," he argues.
In a new post on <a href="http://isharesblog.com/blog/2013/05/08/why-reinhart-rogoff-still-matter/">BlackRock's iShares blog</a>, Koesterich notes that the U.S. continues to be in Reinhart and Rogoff's danger zone, which means debt is so high that growth will take a hit.
And all of this is bad news for corporate profits and stocks.
"A 1% drop in economic growth would have enormous implications for US corporate earnings," warned Koesterich. "In fact, top-line corporate growth is largely a function of economic growth."
"[I]n a world in which developed market debt now averages roughly 100% of developed country GDP, both policy makers and investors ignore Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper at their own peril."
Read more at <a href="isharesblog.com/blog/2013/05/08/why-reinhart-rogoff-still-matter/">iSharesBlog.com</a>.

BLACKROCK: Policy Makers And Investors Ignore Reinhart And Rogoff At Their Peril

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div>REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz</div>Economists <keyword id="111766" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Carmen-Reinhart">Carmen Reinhart</keyword> and <keyword id="218382" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ken-Rogoff">Ken Rogoff</keyword> have been the targets of vicious attacks after UMass graduate students exposed an error in their research.
Specifically, <keyword id="1642526" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Thomas-Herndon">Thomas Herndon</keyword>, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin found that Reinhart and Rogoff made a computational error in their 2010 paper <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/growth_in_time_debt_aer.pdf">“Growth in a Time of Debt.”</a>
This paper has been used around the world by political leaders to advance <keyword id="6451751" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="austerity">austerity</keyword> because it appeared to show that economic growth slowed significantly when debt-to-GDP exceeded 90%.
Since the UMass paper was published, Reinhart and Rogoff have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/s?q=reinhart+rogoff">furiously defended their work</a>, arguing that their basic conclusion connecting high debt with low growth is intact.
In a new <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/debt-growth-and-the-austerity-debate.html">op-ed in The New York Times, Reinhart and Rogoff</a> continue their defense.
They address the topic of austerity head-on by noting that they never specifically made a call for austerity:
The politically charged discussion, especially sharp in the past week or so, has falsely equated our finding of a negative association between debt and growth with an unambiguous call for austerity.
We agree that growth is an elusive goal at times of high debt. We know that cutting spending and raising taxes is tough in a slow-growth economy with persistent unemployment. Austerity seldom works without structural reforms — for example, changes in taxes, regulations and labor market policies — and if poorly designed, can disproportionately hit the poor and middle class. Our consistent advice has been to avoid withdrawing fiscal stimulus too quickly, a position identical to that of most mainstream economists.
In some cases, we have favored more radical proposals, including debt restructuring (a polite term for partial default) of public and private debts. Such restructurings helped deal with the debt buildup during World War I and the Depression. We have long favored write-downs of sovereign debt and senior bank debt in the European periphery (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain) to unlock growth.
So, while you may criticize them for their Excel error, you should be careful not to associate all of the world's ills with their work.
Indeed, Reinhart and Rogoff write that the attacks have gone too far.
Our research, and even our credentials and integrity, have been furiously attacked in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/19/opinion/krugman-the-excel-depression.html">newspapers</a> and on <a href="http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/04/24/debunked-the-harvard-study-that-republicans-used-to-push-austerity/">television</a>. Each of us has received hate-filled, even threatening, e-mail messages, some of them blaming us for layoffs of public employees, cutbacks in government services and tax increases. As career academic economists (our only senior public service has been in the research department at the International Monetary Fund) we find these attacks a sad commentary on the politicization of social science research. But our feelings are not what’s important here.
Read the whole Op-Ed at <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/debt-growth-and-the-austerity-debate.html">NYTimes.com</a>.

REINHART AND ROGOFF: The Attacks On Our Work And Credibility Are Just Sad

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/45601004@N00/5090974448/">Flickr/pbranz</a>UMass' Sam, The Minuteman</div>So far, the the stock market has avoided the spring slumped it had experienced during the past three years.
This has happened even despite the deterioration in much of the global economic data.
<keyword id="1738334" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Art-Cashin">Art Cashin</keyword>, UBS Financial Services Director of Floor Operations asked around to see what traders thought was behind this (emphasis added):
Is This The Reinhart/Rogoff Rebuttal Rally? – Two weeks ago, the financial world seemed to be a much different place.
Stock markets on three continents were sputtering and appeared to be on the verge of a Spring swoon. Gold, oil, copper, and a variety of other commodities appeared to be in virtual freefall. Economic data around the globe seemed to weaken noticeably and universally. Deflation was a key topic.
Now markets around the globe are displaying a new buoyancy. Yields on government bonds have fallen to stunning lows as bidders outdo each other at auctions of what was recently looked upon as sovereign debt with near-junk status.
What has changed things in the last two weeks?
Some point to growing optimism that Italy might finally be able to form a government. Others cite the fact that the G20 appeared to give the BOJ a hall pass on their re-inflation efforts.
A few even point to Merkel slipping in the polls, possible decreasing the power of the "austerity first" crowd.
Some traders, however, think that the new rally really kicked in when news that a graduate student had found flaws in the Reinhart/Rogoff paper on the limiting power of public debt on the economy – thus casting doubt on that thesis.
As the rebuttal made headlines, markets rallied – especially in Europe – as cries that austerity had seen its day came from leader after leader.
Was it really the rebuttal that moved markets? We may never be able to prove it conclusively but the timing seems like a perfect fit. Maybe we should ask a graduate student to look into this.
Cashin is talking about <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/herndon-responds-to-reinhart-rogoff-2013-4">UMass grad student Thomas Herndon</a>, who has basically turned the global <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-colbert-on-thomas-herndon-and-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">austerity movement into a joke</a>.

ART CASHIN: The World Can Thank A Grad Student For The Stock Market Rally

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><keyword id="1642526" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Thomas-Herndon">Thomas Herndon</keyword></div>By now you should know the name Thomas Herndon.
He's the UMass Amherst PHD student who discovered an Excel coding flaw in the famous paper by economists <keyword id="147334" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Kenneth-Rogoff">Kenneth Rogoff</keyword> and <keyword id="111766" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Carmen-Reinhart">Carmen Reinhart</keyword>, which had claimed that when a country's debt surpasses 90% of GDP, then growth slows precipitously.
Herndon's discovery has ricocheted around the world, toppling one of the intellectual pillars of the <keyword id="6451751" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="austerity">austerity</keyword> movement. Last night he was a guest on <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-colbert-on-thomas-herndon-and-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">The Colbert Report</a>.
But the paper might never have happened.
Herndon made the discovery while taking a course simply titled Econ 753: Applied Econometrics.
One of the big assignments for the course was a "replication exercise" where the student has to replicate the findings of a famous paper.
Here's how the assignment is laid out in the course syllabus, which was kindly sent to us by Herndon's professor (and paper co-author) Robert Pollin.
Click the image to enlarge
<div class="image-container click-to-enlarge" style="width:600px"><div class="image"><a title_source="UMass" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/517865a8ecad04df78000001-960/screen%20shot%202013-04-24%20at%207.06.23%20pm.png"></a></div>UMass</div>
Herndon decided for his project he would attempt to replicate the Reinhart-Rogoff findings, that growth for countries with 90% debt-to-GDP was so bad.
But his professors almost didn't let him take on the project!
Why? Because the actual project of taking a bunch of countries and their growth rates in in various years, and averaging them together is very simple mathematics. It doesn't seem like PHD caliber work.
Professor Pollin told us via email: "The techniques in Reinhart-Rogoff are extremely simple, nothing high-tech at all. So the question between we professors was: would we be asking Thomas to do something sufficiently challenging if he were only to replicate this very simple paper?"
Pollin adds, "After some back and forth between us, the answer we settled on was obviously “yes.” The rest is history."
Even then it wasn't inevitable. Herndon only discovered the glitch because he got Carmen Reinhart to send him the spreadsheet they used.
But because the original idea of just replicating their work was so simple, the project almost never even got started.

Thomas Herndon's Professors Almost Didn't Let Him Start The Paper That Shook The World Austerity Movement

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Week 3 of the <keyword id="103436" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="NFL">NFL</keyword> season is here, and it is time to set <a href="https://www.insider.com/category/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a> lineups.</li><li>In our <a href="https://www.insider.com/fantasy-football-start-em-sit-em-week-2-2020-9">Week 2 start/sit column</a>, we correctly picked 11 of 14 players to start to sit.</li><li>Here is our list of start/sit picks for Week 3.</li></ul>Week 3 of the <a href="https://www.insider.com/category/nfl">NFL</a> season is here, and it's time to set <a href="https://www.insider.com/category/fantasy-football">fantasy football</a> lineups.Last week in our <a href="https://www.insider.com/fantasy-football-start-em-sit-em-week-2-2020-9">start/sit column</a>, we nailed 11 of 14 picks. Our bar for success is a top-30 finish for running backs and wide receivers and a top-15 finish for quarterbacks and tight ends. All seven of our "sit" picks finished outside the top 30 and top 15.And while three of our "start" picks finished outside the top 30 and top 15, Tom Brady had two touchdown passes dropped, Parris Campbell left the game with an injury, and Jared Cook was TE16 on the week. In other words, we're off to a good start.Here are 18 players to start or sit in fantasy for Week 3:<h2>START: Gardner Minshew, QB</h2>Team: Jacksonville JaguarsWeek 3 opponent: vs. Miami HeatWhy you should start him: Minshew is the QB9 in fantasy through two games and has done it on fairly limited volume. That may or may not change in Week 3 against the Dolphins — though Miami's Week 2 game against the Bills turned into somewhat of a shootout — but the Dolphins rank 32nd in defensive DVOA. Minshew has a chance at another efficient, multi-touchdown game.<h2>SIT: Drew Brees, QB</h2>Team: New Orleans SaintsOpponent: vs. Green Bay Packers<div type="image" title="drew brees" height="882" width="1176" msid="78302806" hostid="261"></div>Why you should sit him: Brees is averaging 4.8 air yards, the lowest in the NFL (though he scoffed at the importance of the number after Week 2). Through two games, Brees hasn't looked like himself, raising concerns that age has finally hit him. With Michael Thomas still possibly sidelined (or at least unlikely to be 100%) for Week 3, it's better to bench Brees and see if he rebounds instead of risking another dud.<h2>START: Mitch Trubisky, QB</h2>Team: Chicago BearsOpponent: at Atlanta FalconsWhy you should start him: Trubisky has more fantasy points than Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady so far. This week he gets a Falcons defense that has let Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott post No. 1 fantasy finishes in back-to-back weeks. Trubisky may not have that type of ceiling, but he could certainly turn in a top-15 finish.<h2>SIT: Philip Rivers, QB</h2>Team: Indianapolis ColtsOpponent: vs. New York JetsWhy you should sit him: The Colts seemed to find an offensive formula in Week 2, with 40 rushing attempts and 25 passes vs. almost the inverse in a Week 1 loss. The Colts might lean on the run even more this week against the Jets, who allowed an 80-yard run from Raheem Mostert to open the game last week. The volume may not be there for Rivers this week.<h2><div type="image" title="jerick mckinnon" height="1000" width="1333" msid="78302808" hostid="261"></div>START: Jerick McKinnon, RB</h2>Team: San Francisco 49ersOpponent: at New York GiantsWhy you should start him: McKinnon has been a borderline fantasy contributor this season, but now has a big opportunity with Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman likely missing Week 3. The Giants have been shredded by Benny Snell and David Montgomery this season. McKinnon seems worthy of a flex spot, at least.<h2>SIT: Frank Gore, RB</h2>Team: New York JetsOpponent: at Indianapolis ColtsWhy you should sit him: Gore got a massive 21 carries in Week 2 but turned it into just 63 yards. If he gets that kind of massive workload again, he has a chance to punch it into the end zone, but starting him carries risk: the Colts have allowed just one 100-yard rusher (Derrick Henry) since 2018. Adam Gase said the Jets need to kick their offense into "hyperdrive," and it's tough to imagine that means giving Gore 20 more touches.<h2><div type="image" title="james robinson" height="1000" width="1333" msid="78302809" hostid="261"></div>START: James Robinson, RB</h2>Team: Jacksonville JaguarsOpponent: vs. Miami HeatWhy you should start him: Robinson has gotten 16 carries in each game this season and produced with 210 total yards and one touchdown. He gets Miami's defense this week in a game that could allow him more volume if the Jaguars take a big lead.<h2>SIT: Antonio Gibson, RB</h2>Team: Washington Football TeamOpponent: at Cleveland BrownsWhy you should sit him: Gibson has been sharing touches with Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic so far and hasn't done a ton with them, racking up 91 yards on 22 carries. The Browns have held two starting running backs in check (relatively speaking) in Mark Ingram (RB42) and Joe Mixon (RB28), though J.K. Dobbins had a big game against Cleveland in Week 1. Cleveland's run defense ranks fourth in DVOA, and they're home favorites.<h2>START: Joshua Kelley, RB</h2>Team: Los Angeles ChargersOpponent: vs. Carolina PanthersWhy you should start him: Through two weeks, the Chargers' run-heavy game has been enough to support two viable fantasy backs in Austin Ekeler and Kelley, who are RB19 and 20, respectively. While Kelley hasn't been terribly efficient (3.5 ypc), he's getting plenty of touches, and this week gets a weak Panthers defense that's been shredded by Josh Jacobs and Leonard Fournette.<h2>SIT: David Johnson, RB</h2>Team: Houston TexansOpponent: at Pittsburgh SteelersWhy you should sit him: After starting the year against the Chiefs and Ravens, the Texans now face the Steelers, the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL this season. Johnson has 22 carries this year and is averaging 5 yards per carry this season. The Steelers did allow Melvin Gordon to go for 84 yards and a touchdown last week, but betting on Johnson to maintain that efficiency while getting such a low volume of carries is worrisome.<div type="image" title="diontae johnson" height="750" width="1500" msid="78302812" hostid="261"></div><h2>START: Diontae Johnson, WR</h2>Team: Pittsburgh SteelersOpponent: vs. Houston TexansWhy you should start him: Johnson has 23 targets this season. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball 73 times this season. That's a 31.5% target share. While the Texans generally held the Ravens pass attack in check in Week 2, they allowed a WR12 performance to Sammy Watkins in Week 1. With Johnson's volume, he has a chance to explode this week and likely every week.<h2>SIT: Marvin Jones Jr.</h2>Team: Detroit LionsOpponent: at Arizona CardinalsWhy you should sit him: Kenny Golladay looks likely to return this week, potentially eating into Johnson's workload, which hasn't been all that big this season — 14 targets, 8 catches, 78 yards, 1 touchdown. Now, Golladay's return could potentially free up Jones from some defensive attention, but Jones also hasn't topped 60 yards in his last six games. Perhaps this is the week he breaks out, but the Cardinals' pass defense has improved this season, so it's not a super enticing matchup.<h2>START: A.J. Green, WR</h2>Team: Cincinnati BengalsOpponent: at Philadelphia EaglesWhy you should start him: Many people are down on Green for posting just 80 total yards on 21 targets through two games. That's one way to look at it. The other is to be encouraged by a rookie quarterback in Joe Burrow looking Green's way often, particularly after a limited training camp and offseason. Green has hardly played the last two years and is working his way back. He and Burrow are still getting on the same page. If Green's volume holds up, he's going to explode eventually. The Eagles defense hasn't given up a big week to a wide receiver yet, but they've allowed 27 and 37 points so far, so it's not like it's impossible for a receiver to breakthrough. Green could be a good "contrarian" play this week.<div type="image" title="aj green" height="750" width="1500" msid="78302815" hostid="261"></div><h2>SIT: Will Fuller, WR</h2>Team: Houston TexansOpponent: at Pittsburgh SteelersWhy you should sit him: Fuller had no targets last week while sitting out some snaps with a hamstring issue. He's not on the injury report this week, but knowing Fuller's history with injuries, it's worrisome, particularly going into a matchup with the Steelers defense. Fuller is a deep threat, so he's always liable for a big game, something that can drive fantasy managers nuts. But with Deshaun Watson likely to be under pressure this week, it's hard to trust that the big plays Fuller needs to succeed will develop.<h2>START: DeSean Jackson, WR</h2>Team: Philadelphia EaglesOpponent: vs. Cincinnati BengalsWhy you should start him: Given Carson Wentz's struggles this season, it's somewhat encouraging that Jackson has 16 targets, 9 catches, and 110 yards this season. Jackson is always capable of a big play, and now he gets a Bengals defense that Odell Beckham Jr. got behind for a long touchdown in Week 2. The Bengals haven't allowed more than four catches to a receiver yet, mainly because teams have crushed them on the ground, but Jackson doesn't need a ton of catches to go off.<h2>SIT: Emmanuel Sanders, WR</h2>Team: New Orleans SaintsOpponent: vs. Green Bay PackersWhy you should sit him: Sanders has been a huge disappointment to begin 2020, with just 4 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. As mentioned, Brees is struggling to move the ball, and while that could change in Week 3, it's better to play it safe with Sanders, who still didn't see huge volume in Michael Thomas' absence in Week 2.<h2><div type="image" title="jonnu smith" height="996" width="1328" msid="78302817" hostid="261"></div>START: Jonnu Smith, TE</h2>Team: Tennessee TitansOpponent: at Minnesota VikingsWhy you should start him: Smith has been a breakout through two games, posting 8 catches for 120 yards and 3 touchdowns. Interestingly, almost all of his yardage has come after the catch. The Vikings defense has been a mess through two games, and have allowed the 11th most yards after the catch. With A.J. Brown sidelined or limited this week, Smith has a chance to take on more volume against a team that allowed 5 catches and 111 yards to Colts tight end Mo Allie-Cox in Week 2.<h2>SIT: Chris Herndon, TE</h2>Team: New York JetsOpponent: at Indianapolis ColtsWhy you should sit him: It's safe to question if the Herndon breakout is ever coming. The Jets were without Jamison Crowder, Le'Veon Bell, and Breshad Perriman last week, and Herndon still only had one catch for 5 yards while spending much of his time blocking. Perhaps Adam Gase changes that with his newfound urgency for the offense, but the Colts have allowed just 11 total yards to tight ends this season, and are one of the best teams in yards allowed after the catch. Sit him, and if Herndon does break out this week, find solace in not getting burned by him again.<ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/waiver-wire-week-3-pick-ups-fantasy-football-2020-9">The top 15 waiver-wire pickups for Week 3 of fantasy football</a></li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/nfl-power-rankings-week-3-2020-9">NFL POWER RANKINGS: Where every team stands heading into Week 3</a></li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/nfl-fines-seahawks-49ers-broncos-coaches-100000-for-no-masks-2020-9">The NFL has fined 3 head coaches $100,000 each for not wearing masks on the sidelines during games this weekend</a></li><li><a href="https://www.insider.com/photos-derek-jeter-house-tom-brady-rented-tampa-2020-9">Take a tour of the $29 million mansion Derek Jeter is lending to Tom Brady and is now on the market</a></li></ul>

18 players to start or sit in fantasy football for Week 3

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:364px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/">Colbertnation.com</a></div>It's been a very bad week for the austerity movement.
Austerity has been discredited as a path to economic prosperity for awhile.
But a real breakthrough came last week, when a paper written by a graduate student (UMass Amherst's Thomas Herndon) <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/thomas-herndon-michael-ash-and-robert-pollin-on-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">debunked</a> the famous Reinhart &amp; Rogoff study, which had claimed that growth slows precipitously when a country's debt rises above 90% of GDP.
Since then, more dominos have tumbled.
In Europe, we've seen a backlash against austerity from various names, whether it's the International Monetary Fund criticizing the U.K. fund manager <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-reinhart-rogoff-excel-debacle-could-be-devastating-for-the-austerity-movement-2013-4">Bill Gross doing the same</a>, or European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso talking about the limits to austerity.
And now all of this has broken through to the mainstream with last night's Colbert Report, where that grad student, Thomas Herndon, was the guest.
Colbert had two segments devoted to making the austerians look like total laughingstocks.
One was the actual interview with Herndon. The other came as part of a news comment, where he mocked Paul Ryan and "Rogaine and Braveheart," along with several other mean nicknames.
It was one of those cultural moments. Suddenly one side just looks like fools in the national media.
Incidentally, this is exactly what <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/20/the-good-glitch/">Paul Krugman predicted</a> last week would be the significance of Herndon's paper:
The point is that the next time Olli Rehn, or George Osborne, or Paul Ryan declares, sententiously, that we must have austerity because serious economists (i.e., not Krugman and friends) tell us that debt is a terrible thing, people in the audience will snicker — which they should have been doing all along, but now it has become socially acceptable.
Below are the two clips, the first being the interview with Herndon, and the second is the broader discussion of how influential Reinhart and Rogoff were on politics. 
<div style="background-color: #000000; width: 520px;">
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The Colbert Report Get More: <a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/full-episodes/">Colbert Report Full Episodes</a>,<a href="http://www.comedycentral.com/indecision">Indecision Political Humor</a>,<a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/video">Video Archive</a>
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<div style="padding: 4px;">
<a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/425748/april-23-2013/austerity-s-spreadsheet-error">The Colbert Report</a> Get More: <a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/full-episodes/">Colbert Report Full Episodes</a>,<a href="http://www.indecisionforever.com/">Political Humor &amp; Satire Blog</a>,<a href="http://www.colbertnation.com/video">Video Archive</a>
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On National TV Last Night, The Austerity Movement Became A Laughingstock

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz</div></div>Earlier this year, a group of researchers led by UMass-Amherst's Thomas Herndon <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/thomas-herndon-michael-ash-and-robert-pollin-on-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">found an error</a> in <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff/publications/growth-time-debt">a seminal paper</a> by Harvard economists <keyword id="111766" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Carmen-Reinhart">Carmen Reinhart</keyword> and <keyword id="218382" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ken-Rogoff">Ken Rogoff</keyword> regarding <keyword id="44647" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="debt">debt</keyword> and <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword>.
Reinhart and Rogoff had asserted that at the 90% debt-to-GDP ratio, the median growth rate among the countries they surveyed dropped by 1%, and that the mean growth rate dropped even further.
But Team Herndon discovered the pair had left out several countries whose history of debt versus GDP, they claim, would have shown <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/herndon-responds-to-reinhart-rogoff-2013-4">nothing special happens at the 90% level</a>. 
The reason why all this matters is because, in the wake of the financial crisis, <a href="http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com/related-research/growth-in-a-time-of-debt-featured-in">lots of people cited Reinhart and Rogoff's findings</a> to argue in favor austerity, <a href="http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/reinharttestimony3102011.pdf">including in the U.S</a><a href="http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/reinharttestimony3102011.pdf">.</a>
And as we now know, austerity has seen <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/jul/11/how-austerity-has-failed/">extremely</a> <a href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-austerity-has-helped-the-eurozone-periphery-by-daniel-gros">mixed</a> results.
Now, in a new post on his website, <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/frequently_asked_questions.pdf">Rogoff has produced another response in the form of a Frequently Asked Questions article.</a>
It's mostly a summary of past arguments that he and Reinhart have made: that everyone was drawing incorrect conclusions from their initial findings.
"We very explicitly state that our results should not be interpreted as saying that a country would suddenly experience a significant change in expected growth as it crossed the 90% threshold," he writes.
Rogoff also confirms Team Herndon's findings that there were omissions, but argues they are "of minor quantitative significance and hardly central to the debate."
But Rogoff unexpectedly sideswipes the econo-blogo-sphere for having perpetuated misleading interpretations of their findings.
"The terms "threshold" and "nonlinearity" in economic research by no means imply there has to be a sharp break (no matter how much some bloggers incorrectly make that claim). Our more nuanced and perfectly conventional meaning is also clear in the context of the large literature in international finance that our paper builds on." 
The bloggers in question remain unnamed.
But it does provide some insight into the tiff-riddled world of economics blogging, where the bloggers also frequently <a href="http://www.gmu.edu/centers/publicchoice/faculty%20pages/Tyler/">happen</a> <a href="http://www.econbrowser.com/">to</a> <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/">be</a> <a href="http://home.uchicago.edu/~gbecker/">economists</a>, and even <a href="http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/">Harvard colleagues.</a>

Ken Rogoff Takes A Swipe At Econ-Bloggers For Misinterpreting His Work On Debt And GDP

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Mike SegarRepublican presidential nominee Donald Trump is introduced by U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) at the "Retired American Warriors" conference during a campaign stop in Herndon, Virginia, U.S., October 3, 2016.</div></div></div>Confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet kicked off on Tuesday with Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, Trump's pick to head up the Justice Department.Sessions and Trump, however, seem to differ on a critical issue: the legalization of medical marijuana.In an April hearing, the Alabama senator said that "good people don't smoke marijuana," and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/prospective-trump-attorney-general-jeff-sessions-on-weed-2016-11">slammed President Obama for admitting to smoking</a> the drug in high school. He also famously joked that the K.K.K. was "O.K. until I found out they smoked pot."Though Trump's administration <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/where-donald-trump-stands-on-weed-legalization-2016-11">hasn't yet discussed a specific policy on medical cannabis</a>, the president-elect has differed with Sessions on the issue in the past. He told Bill O'Reilly that he's "100%" in favor of medical marijuana in an interview last year, and has indicated that he'll take a typical Republican strategy by letting states lead the charge on legalization.Trump's incoming spokesman, Sean Spicer, was forced to address the issue on Fox's "Outnumbered" on Tuesday. "You now see, finally, there is a majority of Americans in this country who believe marijuana should be legal," Lisa Kennedy, a host, <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/818871869952720897">asked Spicer</a>. "I worry that this attorney general is opposed to that."Spicer responded that the incoming administration is all about Trump. "When you come into a Trump administration, it's the Trump agenda that you are implementing, not your own," Spicer said. "And I think that Sen. Sessions is well aware of that."The question came up during the hearing on Tuesday afternoon. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) questioned Sessions on federal cannabis prohibition, to which Sessions responded that "it is not so much the attorney general's job to decide what laws are enforced," and said that Congress should pass a law to "change the rule," if it's something they'd like to change.Sessions also admitted that arresting and imprisoning cannabis offenders is a "problem of resources" for the federal government, after questioning from Patrick Leahy (D-VT). <div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Jose Luis Magana/APTrump takes over on January 20th.</div></div></div>To some experts, cannabis legalization, both medical and recreational, has already hit a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/states-legalize-medical-recreational-marijuana-results-2016-11">tipping point</a>. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/quarter-of-americans-could-have-legal-weed-after-election-day-2016-11/#montana-medical-passed-8">Four states voted to legalize cannabis</a> recreationally on Election Day, while a further four <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/quarter-of-americans-could-have-legal-weed-after-election-day-2016-11/#montana-medical-passed-8">voted to legalize some form</a> of medical cannabis, joining a host of other states with cannabis laws already on the books. This means that almost a quarter of all Americans could have legal access to the plant in the near future.But it will fall on Trump's incoming administration - and a Justice Department likely led by Sessions, who opposes legalizing marijuana - to actually implement these laws. Sessions has come under fire from pro-legalization Republicans who represent states, like Colorado, where there's already a thriving market for cannabis. "My advice is always to and has been to respect states' rights and to look at what other states are doing and wait and see what's going to happen," Cory Gardner, a Republican senator from Colorado, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-09/sessions-anti-marijuana-stance-draws-fire-by-fellow-republicans">told Bloomberg</a>. "So I look forward to having that conversation with him."Two sitting Republican House representatives, Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), and Thomas Massie (R-KY), are also in the process of creating a bipartisan Cannabis Caucus to focus on cannabis reform at the federal level.Similar to Trump's stance on medical mariuana, the Rohrabacher wants to make "the states' rights issue" a focal point of the Cannabis Caucus's strategy, reports <a href="http://www.decodedc.com/congressmen-launch-cannabis-caucus-2017/">DecodeDC</a>. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-nukes-tweet-arms-race-nuclear-weapons-putin-russia-morning-joe-2016-12">'Let it be an arms race': Trump doubles down on nuclear weapons tweet</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tlb2ZqODE6MPwuZGfJnziqgTbYIlVD_s" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Trump's incoming spokesman: 'When you come into a Trump administration, it's the Trump agenda'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Eduardo MunozHarvard Professor and Economist Kenneth Rogoff speaks during the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, May 16, 2012.</div></div>Remember back in April when a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/herndon-responds-to-reinhart-rogoff-2013-4">UMass graduate student</a> found <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/thomas-herndon-michael-ash-and-robert-pollin-on-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">a major Excel error</a> in the foundational pro-austerity paper of the post-financial crisis era?
Well one of the authors of <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/growth_in_time_debt_aer.pdf">that foundational paper</a> - Harvard economist <keyword id="218382" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ken-Rogoff">Ken Rogoff</keyword> - is <a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/ken-rogoff-loses-it-calls-criticism-of-errors-in-debt-paper-a-witch-hunt.html">still upset</a> over what he calls a "witch hunt" propelled by "left bloggers."
If you recall, after Ph.D candidate Thomas Herndon found the error in the math behind "Growth in the Time of Debt," a paper from which governments have drawn austerity-based policies, Rogoff (and his co-author Carmen Reinhart) kind of <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-response-to-critique/">pooh-poohed the whole thing</a>. 
Economists (and bloggers!) like <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/reinhart-rogoff-continued/">Paul Krugman</a> and <a href="http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/how-much-unemployment-was-caused-by-reinhart-and-rogoffs-arithmetic-mistake">Dean Baker</a> piled on, the thought being that Rogoff and Reinhart were at best being nearsighted and at worst actively disingenuous. Plus, the whole thing just festered even more because R&amp;R's central thesis (that high debt to GDP ratios leads to long periods of slow growth) had been willfully co-opted by many austerious governments looking for an economic bitter pill.
Here we are months later, Rogoff gave <a href="http://blogs.faz.net/fazit/2013/10/22/kenneth-rogoff-ueber-excel-fehler-hexenjagd-2818/">an interview</a> to the German newspaper Frankfuerter Allgemeine (<a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/ken-rogoff-loses-it-calls-criticism-of-errors-in-debt-paper-a-witch-hunt.html">picked up by Naked Capitalism</a>). Here are some nuggets from the interview (translated):
<ol>
<li>He now defends himself: The story is an orchestrated attack from left bloggers, "as in the the 50s under McCarthy."</li>
<li>His opponents had "distorted and consciously falsely interpreted and polemicized his work." </li>
<li>"The main point is, after all the polemical heat that my main result is: Very high debt is associated with lower growth," he says. And: "If anyone thinks that record debt in order, then he is wrong. The history shows the opposite," said Rogoff.</li>
</ol>
<div>Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism calls the interview "remarkable tripe," adding that "the reaction was strong because the paper was so prominent and the authors had resisted releasing the underlying data to economists who thought the results looked wrong."</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/ken-rogoff-loses-it-calls-criticism-of-errors-in-debt-paper-a-witch-hunt.html">Read the full post at Naked Capitalism » </a></div>

KEN ROGOFF: The Bloggers Are On A 50s McCarthyism Witch Hunt Over My Spreadsheet Error

<div class="image-container float_right" style="width:350px"><div class="image"></div>Julia La Roche for Business Insider</div>The S&amp;P is getting close to an all-time high again.
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 14,700, +24.5 pts, +0.1% S&amp;P 500: 1,585, +6.3 pts, +0.4% NASDAQ: 3,289, +20.3 pts, +0.6%
And now the top stories:
<ul>
<li>Stocks have quietly rallied in recent weeks, and now the S&amp;P 500 is within points of its new <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-april-11-2013-2013-4">all-time closing high of 1,593</a>.</li>
<li>"Some traders ... think that the new rally really kicked in when news that a graduate student had found flaws in the Reinhart/Rogoff paper on the limiting power of public debt on the economy – thus casting doubt on that thesis," said <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cashin-the-reinhart-rogoff-rally-2013-4">UBS's Art Cashin</a>. Cashin is talking about UMass grad student Thomas Herndon, who has basically turned the global <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-colbert-on-thomas-herndon-and-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">austerity movement into a joke</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/april-25-economic-jobless-claims-2013-4">Initial jobless claims</a> fell to 339,000 from 455,000 last week. This was lower than the 350,000 level economists were looking for. This was great news from the persistently week U.S. labor market.</li>
<li style="line-height: 1.5em;">The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-april-2013-4">Kansas City Fed manufacturing index</a> report told a different story. The headline number was unchanged at -5. Economists were looking for an improvement to -1. "Our expectations for future increases have cooled considerably in the last few months," said one of the survey's respondents.</li>
<li style="line-height: 1.5em;">A weird headline at around 3 p.m. EDT introduced some volatility to the markets. Bloomberg sent a report from German newspaper Handelsblatt across the wire saying that the German Bundesbank <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/thursday-afternoon-market-update-2013-4">rejected the ECB's "OMT" bond buying program</a> in a secret opinion prepared the German constitutional court (which is set to rule on OMT in June). Stocks and the euro both dipped briefly, but both recovered. </li>
<li style="line-height: 1.5em;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/live-amazon-beats-on-earnings-2013-4">Amazon.com</a> announces earnings after the <keyword id="149333" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="closing-bell">closing bell</keyword> today. Follow the release live at BusinessInsider.com.</li>
<li>Don't Miss: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-research-recommended-list-2013-4">CITI: Here Are The 19 Best Stocks In The Market &gt;</a> </li>
</ul>

STOCKS RALLY: Here's What You Need To Know

OZAN KOSE/AFP/Getty ImagesA protester wearing a mask painted with the colors of the flag of East Turkestan - what Uighurs call Xinjiang - and a hand bearing the colors of the Chinese flag outside the Chinese consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, in July 2018.<ul class="summary-list"><li>China is waging a widespread, coordinated mass crackdown on its Uighur Muslim minority.</li><li>Though the brutal campaign is most active in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang, the Uighurs' homeland, many Uighurs abroad say they have also been targeted by Chinese agents.</li><li>Members of the Uighur diaspora described receiving mysterious automated calls, eerie Facebook comments, and being threatened by Mandarin Chinese speakers in real life.</li><li>Uighurs abroad have also discovered their relatives in Xinjiang vanished by Chinese authorities days after they spoke out for the Uighurs.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.</a></li></ul>China's unprecedented oppression of Uighur Muslims goes beyond the borders of Xinjiang, the western Chinese region where most of the ethnic minority live, former residents told Business Insider.Under President Xi Jinping, China is waging a widespread counterterrorism campaign on Xinjiang, also known to Uighurs as East Turkestan. It is a paranoid move in response to a spate of ethnic riots between Uighurs and Han Chinese, the dominant ethnic group in the country, ten years ago.The Communist Party sees Uighurs' religion - Islam - as a threat, and often <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-uighur-detention-camps-cleanse-religion-leaked-documents-nyt-2019-11">conflates it with religious extremism</a>.For this reason, China apparently feels the need to control the Uighur diaspora outside the country in case they return home and carry out attacks.Kevin Frayer/Getty ImagesPolice patrol on a scooter as an ethnic Uighur boy stands in his doorway in the old town of Kashgar, Xinjiang, in June 2017.Leaked classified documents, <a href="https://www.icij.org/investigations/china-cables/exposed-chinas-operating-manuals-for-mass-internment-and-arrest-by-algorithm/">published by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists</a> last month, showed a concerted effort by regional officials to keep a close eye on Uighurs with foreign citizenship, wherever they are."For those still outside the country for whom suspected terrorism cannot be ruled out, the border control reading will be carried out by hand to ensure that they are arrested the moment they cross the border," one government bulletin said."For those ... whom suspected terrorism cannot be ruled out, they should first be placed into concentrated education and training for examination," it added, referring to tightly-secured detention camps in the region, where former inmates say they are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/life-inside-china-internment-camps-for-uighur-minority-in-xinjiang-bbc-report-2018-8">physically and psychologically tortured</a>.Associated PressCopies of Chinese government documents that were leaked to a the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists displayed in November 2019.<h2>'Family and friends suffer the consequences'</h2>Several members of the Uighur diaspora told Business Insider they've also been spooked by China without even having to step foot in the country.Rushan Abbas, a Uighur activist living in Herndon, Virginia, discovered last September that her sister had been disappeared by Xinjiang authorities six days after she spoke out against China's human rights record. She still has no idea of her whereabouts."The Chinese government is basically holding her hostage for my speaking out about the horrific blatant human rights abuses of the Chinese government," Abbas told Business Insider last month."My sister's story is not unique. China harasses Uighurs in the diaspora's relatives back home, presenting them with heartbreaking choice: Keep silent about the horrific violations of human rights, or let your family and friends suffer the consequences for your choice for speaking out," she said."I am an example of that."Courtesy of Bahram SintashBahram Sintash (right) and his father, Qurban Mamut, during Mamut's February 2017 visit to Washington, DC.<h2>An entire business gone</h2>Abbas is not the only foreign Uighur who has been punished in Xinjiang for their actions outside the region.Bahram Sintash, a Uighur-American living in Chantilly, Virginia, has been campaigning for his father's release from the Xinjiang camps since October 2018. He has called on the Chinese government to reveal the whereabouts of his father, a retired magazine editor, through social media, protests, and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-of-uighurs-in-china-say-are-blocked-deleted-by-scared-family-2019-2">speaking to journalists</a>.Sintash has been living in the US since 2008, but continued to visit his family in Xinjiang until 2015, when his Chinese visa was inexplicably revoked. That same year, he had opened a company in Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital city, to provide fitness supplements and workout plans to Uighurs in the region.Sintash requested anonymity for his company to protect its former employees. But he said the business flourished, and had earned close to a million dollars.That success came to an end in October 2018 - exactly two days after Sintash <a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/uyghur/journalist-10182018151224.html">spoke to Radio Free Asia</a> about his father's disappearance for the first time.Courtesy of Bahram SintashSintash's father Qurban Mamut in Washington, DC, during a February 2017 visit.Multiple police officers went to the company's office in Urumqi, took photos of every corner of the office, and told employees to leave as soon as possible, Sintash told Business Insider.Shortly after the raid, police officers further questioned his colleagues, shut down his office, storage warehouse, and corporate social media accounts, he said."The police warned my partners to stop communicating with me and told them I was the enemy of the country living overseas," Sintash said."I couldn't get my money back from the region," he added. "I can no longer contact any business partners or my teammates or my customers."Thomas Peter/GettyChinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, Beijing, in November 2018.Sintash said he learned the news of his company's collapse not from any official correspondence from Xinjiang authorities, but from one of his customers.There's no other way to verify it: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-of-uighurs-in-china-say-are-blocked-deleted-by-scared-family-2019-2">His mother blocked him on WeChat last year</a> for fear of getting in trouble with authorities, and all his phone calls to regional authorities about his father have gone unanswered.<h2>Mysterious automated calls and Facebook messages</h2>As some Uighurs lose touch with their family on the phone, others have received menacing messages from Chinese-speaking agents.Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/GettyA protester wears a mask painted with Xinjiang or East Turkestan's flag and tears of blood in Brussels in April 2018.Guly Mahsut, a Uighur Canadian living in Ottawa, reported receiving multiple automated calls from Mandarin Chinese-speaking agents in recent weeks.A female caller had identified herself as the Chinese embassy and told her to pick up some documents. Mahsut told Business Insider that even as she kept blocking the numbers calling her, she kept receiving the same automated calls from other numbers.It's not clear how the caller got Mahsut's phone number, what documents she is referring to, and why Mahsut was receiving these calls. Earlier this year she publicly questioned China's claim that it had released most inmates from Xinjiang's detention centers, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/01/uighurs-challenge-china-to-prove-missing-relatives-are-free">telling Agence France-Presse</a> she knew of a cousin and two friends still in the camps.Listen to one of the recordings Mahsut received below, accompanied with a rough translation of the message verified by Business Insider:The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa told Business Insider this call was a "telecommunications fraud," calling the caller "law breakers [who] use technical means to disguise phone numbers as embassies and consulates." It added that the alleged scam is "not targeted at a specific group of people."Some 30 members of the Uighur diaspora in Norway have received dozens of automated calls from phone numbers connected to the Chinese embassy in Oslo, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/norway-automated-calls-china-embassy-spook-uighur-diaspora-191113205036890.html">Al Jazeera reported</a> last month.One of the Uighurs, a naturalized Norwegian citizen, said she started receiving the calls after attending an anti-China rally on October 1.The Chinese embassy in Oslo denied the calls in a similar manner to the London embassy, saying they were part of a scam.Uighurs living in the US and France also told <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/chinese-police-are-spying-on-uighurson-american-soil">The Daily Beast</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secretly-demanding-personal-information-from-french-citizens-uighurs-xinjiang/">Foreign Policy</a> last year that they had been asked for personal information including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-compiling-uighur-muslim-global-database-reports-2018-8">license plate numbers, bank details, ID photos, and marriage certificates</a> - and threatened harm to their families in Xinjiang if they did not comply.Kevin Frayer/GettyUighur men pray before a meal during the Corban Festival, also known as Eid al-Adha, in Turpan, Xinjiang, in September 2016.Sintash, the fitness company owner, has also received messages in Chinese threatening to harm his family.FacebookA Facebook comment that Bahram Sintash received from a Chinese-speaking account in January 2019.In January 2019, he received a comment in simplified Chinese on Facebook, in response to a comment he had left in the Uighur language on another person's page."You are a good son of the Chinese Communist Party. Your father has been released now," the comment read, without providing any evidence."I reckon you can keep selling your white powder [crying-eyes emoji]," the comment continued, in what Sintash took to mean his fitness supplements. "Strongly support you."The account was registered under a Chinese name, and its profile photo was of a young Chinese woman.The entire account has since been deleted. Business Insider last saw the post in February, and has preserved screenshots of the comment."What I understood [from the comment] was: 'Keep obeying the Chinese Communist Party and shut your mouth. Your father is in our hands,'" Sintash told Business Insider."I felt threatened by the CCP."Trolling people is not a new Chinese tactic. The country's propaganda department <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-propaganda-department-glosses-over-human-rights-2018-6">pays some two million people to publish pro-government posts and attack critics</a> on social media, a Harvard University <a href="https://gking.harvard.edu/50C">report</a> found in 2016.These commenters are known as the "wumao dang," which translates to "50 cent party" in Chinese - a reference to the amount of money in yuan they are allegedly paid per post. That's about $0.07.<h2>'Your mother has died'</h2>Another bizarre run-in with Chinese speakers took place in late October, when Sintash and other Uighur activists staged a protest outside the Capital One Arena in downtown Washington, DC.As Sintash and 13 others held up signs and chanted slogans, a Han Chinese man - the largest ethnic group - went up to them and said: "Your mother has died" five times.Video shows the group looking at the man, puzzled, as he walked away."He was a pro-CCP Chinese citizen who could've said anything to define [himself] ... but he chose to tell us 'your mother has died,'" Sintash said."I was shocked at the time. I never expected someone to deliver such an evil message while in the United States."Those words were particularly jarring to Sintash, who hadn't spoken to his mother or anyone else in his family since February 2018. To this day, he still has no idea who that man was.Feng Li/GettyA man on his phone in Tiananmen Square, Beijing.Will these threats stop Uighurs from speaking out for their families trapped in China? Probably not."They cannot control us," Sintash said. "China looks for people who are weaker mentally. I am different ... I have the US behind me.""I never cared about politics in the past," he added. "What China is doing to the people in the region - we have to speak up. We have to stand up."<ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-of-uighurs-in-china-say-are-blocked-deleted-by-scared-family-2019-2">Relatives of China's oppressed Muslim minority are getting blocked online by their own family members, who are terrified to even tell them how bad their lives are</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-uighur-prison-camp-suspected-locations-maps-2019-11">Maps show 500 suspected 're-education' camps and prisons where China is locking up and torturing its Muslim minority</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-organ-harvesting-medical-report-claims-falsified-donation-data-2019-11">Medical experts say China is falsifying organ donation data, after it was accused of harvesting body parts from Uighur Muslims in prison camps</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-uighur-detention-camps-cleanse-religion-leaked-documents-nyt-2019-11">China tells Uighur Muslims they are abducting their families so they can cleanse their brains like they have a disease, leaked documents show</a></li></ul> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-marines-are-trained-to-fight-bayonets-boot-camp-combat-2019-11">How Marine recruits are trained to fight with bayonets at boot camp</a></h3>

Mysterious automated calls, vanished relatives, and sinister Facebook comments: How China intimidates Uighurs who don't even live in the country

<div style="width: 100%; overflow: hidden;">
<h2 style="text-align: left;"><keyword id="1740547" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Monday-Scouting-Report">MONDAY SCOUTING REPORT</keyword></h2>
 This post is part of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report"</a> series, a weekly look at the stories and issues that most affect mid-market businesses. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">"Monday Scouting Report"</a> is sponsored by GE Capital.</div>
<div style="width: 100%; overflow: hidden;"><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/monday-scouting-report">See more Monday Scouting Reports &gt;&gt;</a></div><div class="image-container float_right" style="width:400px"><div class="image"></div><a href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Punishment_sisyph.jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>Sisyphus</div>The S&amp;P 500 gained a notable <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/last-weeks-global-market-rally-2013-4">1.7% last week</a>, and it sits just points from its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/closing-bell-april-25-2013-2013-4">all-time high</a>.
This comes as U.S. economic data continues to signal a spring slowdown. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-q1-2013-gdp-first-estimate-2013-4">Q1 GDP</a> grew at a slower pace than expected, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/durable-goods-orders-march-2013-4">durable goods orders</a> disappointed in April, and the housing market is showing <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/existing-home-sales-march-2013-4">signs of slowing</a>.
Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/4/26/earnings-and-revenue-beat-rates-by-quarter.html">current earnings season</a> continues to be less than stellar.
Experts have offered two interesting theories for the persistent stock market rally, which we will get to a little later.
This <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-data-april-29-may-3-2013-4">week will be loaded with economic data</a> and earnings announcements from around the world.
Top Stories
<ul>
<li>Here Comes The Fed - The members of the Federal Open Market Committee meet this week to set monetary policy. They already have their foot on the gas pedal with quantitative easing and all of their other efforts to keep interest rates very low. But with the economy showing signs of slowing, will they get even more aggressive? "While the Fed will acknowledge the recent pause in the data since the March meeting, the slowdown is not large enough to warrant any major changes to the FOMC communique," said Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna. "The June FOMC meeting would be the more appropriate time to reexamine the QE program given that the Fed will have two more payroll reports as well as updated economic forecasts."</li>
<li>Can A Tweet Break The Market? - Last week, a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-tweet-on-white-house-2013-4">false AP headline</a> hit Twitter that read "Breaking: Two Explosions in the White House and Barack Obama is Injured." Within a matter of seconds, the stock market collapsed almost faster than a trader could say sell. A few seconds later, the AP and others confirmed that the headline was indeed false, and the markets came all of the way back. Thanks to the recovery, people don't seem to be too concerned about the wild volatility. Nevertheless, some experts still worry about the presence of computerized trading systems that react to headlines in ways humans don't.</li>
</ul>
Economic Calendar
<ul>
<li>Personal Income And Spending (Monday): Economists estimate that income grew by 0.4% in March, while spending climbed by just 0.1%. "We already know from last week’s GDP data that real consumption rose at an impressive annualised rate of 3.2% in the first quarter, so the interest in March’s personal spending and income data will be to see just how sharp the slowdown in spending was at the end of the quarter," said Capital Economics' Paul Dales.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday): Economists expect the headline number to come down to 51.0 from 51.3 in March. "We expect little change, with manufacturing down slightly and non-manufacturing up slightly," said High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan who's looking for a 51.0 reading.</li>
<li>The Jobs Report (Friday): Economists estimate that the economy added 145k nonfarm payrolls in April, up from 88k in March. "Last month, notable losses were recorded in manufacturing, retail trade, trade, transportation and warehousing and government," said Wells Fargo's John Silvia who has a 150k estimate. "Despite initial jobless claims slightly higher in April than in March, we do expect employment to bounce back a bit this month, but not up to the 200,000-plus job gains we saw earlier this year."</li>
</ul>
Market Update
So, with the recent economic data disappointing and earnings announcements lagging, what's driving the markets?
Analysts have advanced at least two interesting theories.
1) Cash Return: "[D]uring the current earnings season, US corporations continue to announce dividend increases and more share buybacks," said <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/market-rally-buybacks-and-dividends-2013-4">stock market guru Ed Yardeni</a> as he rationalized the rally. "Previously, I’ve shown that this corporate cash flow into the stock market--which totaled $2.1 trillion for the S&amp;P 500 since stock prices bottomed during Q1-2009 through Q4-2012--has been driving the bull market since it began."
2) The End Of Austeriy: "Some traders ... think that the new rally really kicked in when news that a graduate student had found flaws in the Reinhart/Rogoff paper on the limiting power of public debt on the economy – thus casting doubt on that thesis," said <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/cashin-the-reinhart-rogoff-rally-2013-4">UBS's Art Cashin</a>. Cashin is talking about UMass grad student Thomas Herndon, who has basically turned the global <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stephen-colbert-on-thomas-herndon-and-reinhart-and-rogoff-2013-4">austerity movement into a joke</a>. Austerity has been a major drag for economic growth, especially in many of the developed European countries.

You Searched For "Thomas Herndon" and got 12 results

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