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<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapsed after a container ship collided with it.</li><li>Several entities will likely be on the hook to foot the bill in the aftermath of the disaster.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-collapses-after-struck-large-boat-2024-3">Francis Scott Key Bridge</a> in Baltimore collapsed on Tuesday after a large container ship ran into it, leading to six presumed deaths and millions of dollars in possible damage.It's still too early to estimate the total <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-fedex-deliveries-baltimore-could-be-impacted-by-bridge-collapse-2024-3">economic impact</a> of the disaster, but between the cost of rebuilding the decades-old bridge, compensating the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-bridge-collapse-developing-mass-casualty-event-2024-3">victims' families</a>, and paying out damages for disruptions to the supply chain, the eventual cost of the disaster is expected to be significant.<h2>Who will pay to rebuild the bridge?</h2>President Joe Biden said on Tuesday the federal government should be responsible for paying to reconstruct the damaged Francis Scott Key Bridge."It is my intention that the federal government will pay for the entire cost of reconstructing that bridge, and I expect Congress to support my effort," Biden said.The bridge was built in the 1970s for about $60 million, but the cost of rebuilding it could be 10 times its original price tag, an engineering expert told <a target="_blank" href="https://news.sky.com/story/baltimore-trade-implications-from-francis-scott-key-bridge-collapse-as-rebuild-could-cost-600m-13102108">Sky News. </a><div type="image" title="A picture of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland" height="1414" width="2121" msid="108804526" hostid="261" sizebytes="128986"></div>Baltimore is among the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-bridge-collapse-halts-shipping-traffic-port-2024-3">busiest ports in the nation</a>, seeing more than a million shipping containers pass through each year. The collapse — which closed the port to all maritime and most road traffic until further notice — is already beginning to wreak havoc on the supply chain.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-port-closure-could-cost-15-million-per-day-2024-3">cost of building the bridge</a> back fast enough to offset diversions as much as possible could saddle the government with a more than $600 million bill, David MacKenzie, chair of engineering and architecture consultancy COWIfonden, told Sky News.<h2>Who will pay for damages to the ship and its cargo?</h2>The container ship, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-we-know-dali-francis-scott-crash-collapse-maryland-bridge-2024-3">the Dali</a>, is owned by a Singapore-based firm. The ship's charterer, Maersk, confirmed to Business Insider that vessel company Synergy Group operates the ship. However, the companies with cargo aboard the Dali will ultimately be responsible for the ship's damages and cargo costs.The Dali was carrying 330 containers, which now must be re-routed, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1772756557891297376">Ryan Petersen</a>, CEO of supply chain logistics company Flexport, which had two containers on the ship.An ancient maritime law known as "<a target="_blank" href="https://psabdp.com/psa-bdp-blog/what-is-general-average-and-what-does-it-mean-for-your-cargo">general average</a>" dictates that companies with even a single container aboard a ship have to split the damages pro rata based on the number of containers, ensuring all the stakeholders benefiting from the voyage are splitting the risk, Petersen said.<div type="image" title="Drone footage shows aftermath of the Dali container ship's collision into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, on March 26, 2024." height="1152" width="2048" msid="108804527" hostid="261" sizebytes="231942"></div>The principle dates back hundreds of years and was originally meant to ensure sailors on board a ship weren't worried about specific cargo if a disaster required them to start throwing containers overboard, according to Petersen.<h2>Who will pay for everything else?</h2>The majority of the financial fallout is likely to lay primarily with the insurance industry, according to media reports.Industry experts told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/17cf3f2e-e64d-4666-b1c2-2723347c2ada">FT</a> that insurers could pay out losses for bridge damage, port disruption, and any loss of life.The collapse could drive "one of the largest claims ever to hit the marine (re)insurance market," John Miklus, president of the American Institute of Marine Underwriters, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/marine/major-reinsurers-and-pandi-club-on-hook-for-baltimore-bridge-disaster-482812.aspx">Insurance Business.</a>He told the outlet that the loss of revenue from tolls while the bridge is being rebuilt will be expensive, as will any liability claims from deaths or injuries.The Dali is covered by the Britannia Steam Ship Insurance Association Ltd., known as Britannia P&amp;I Club, according to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/reinsurers-marine-market-to-bear-brunt-of-baltimore-bridge-collapse-80988297">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.</a>Britannia did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider but told FT it was "working closely with the ship manager and relevant authorities to establish the facts and to help ensure that this situation is dealt with quickly and professionally."Britannia is one of 12 mutual insurers included in the International Group of P&amp;I Clubs, which maintains more than $3 billion of reinsurance cover, sources familiar with the matter told Insurance Business.Britannia itself is liable for the first $10 million in damages, both FT and Insurance Business reported. Whatever remains is dealt with by the wider mutual insurance group and Lloyd's of London, a reinsurance market in the UK, according to FT.

Here's who could be responsible for paying for the Baltimore bridge disaster 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Neither Harris nor Trump outline specific disaster-relief policies on their website.</li><li>Their records, however, offer clues into how they'd deal with natural disasters as president.</li></ul>As another <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-evacuation-empty-gas-station-full-hotels-gridlock-traffic-2024-10">hurricane</a> threatens to devastate swaths of the Southeast, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are under new scrutiny about their disaster response strategies. And though neither have specifically addressed how they'd approach disaster relief on their campaign websites, their environmental records offer clues into how they might deal with similar crises in the future.When Hurricane Helene bore down on six states, and with particular force in North Carolina and Georgia, both Harris and Trump said that the focus should be on providing aid, not politics. But the storm, which has killed more than 230 people and destroyed entire towns, has already crept into the presidential race. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-milton-tampa-florida-desantis-clean-disaster-dangerous-2024-10">Hurricane Milton is expected to hit Florida</a> on Wednesday night, only exacerbating the focus on environmental devastation."Disasters are always political," Thomas Birkland, a political scientist at North Carolina State University who studies the politics of national disasters, told Business Insider. He said that disaster relief is not, however, usually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">discussed during campaigns</a>.Timothy Kneeland, a professor at Nazareth University who studies politics and natural disasters, thinks that as hurricanes become more common, candidates should address them more explicitly."Having a short but clear statement on disasters should be part of any campaigner's policy," he wrote in a statement to BI.Both candidates have visited impacted areas, with Trump visiting Georgia on September 30 and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crises-middle-east-strike-hurricane-election-2024-10">Harris on October 2</a>. Republicans criticized Harris for attending a fundraising event in California when Helene struck, while she maintained that politicians should stay out of the most devastated areas as first responders begin their early work.In the days since Hurricane Helene, Trump has spread misinformation about the storm and response efforts, prompting the Federal Emergency Management Agency to publish a fact-checking page. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-helene-relief-disinformation-misinformation-north-carolina-democrats-republicans-2024-10">Democrats and Republicans alike</a> say that the baseless claims are complicating <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-elon-musk-starlink-hurricane-helene-fema-2024-9">clean-up efforts</a>, and Harris has put out a digital ad slamming his former disaster relief. When he was president, Trump responded to several hurricanes. As with Hurricane Helene, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.vox.com/politics/376982/trump-hurricane-helene-fema-lies-debunked">publicized</a> misinformation. When Hurricane Dorian threatened Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, he incorrectly said that its path included Alabama as well. During a briefing in the Oval Office, he showed a map of the hurricane's path that included a Sharpie mark extending the storm's reach to Alabama. Trump also falsely claimed that the death toll from Hurricane Maria in 2017 was overblown, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/08/trump-hurricane-helene-natural-disasters/">Washington Post reported</a>.The former president occasionally threatened to hold back disaster funding over political spats. In 2020, for example, he floated withholding money from flood-ravaged Michigan because he was frustrated with absentee voting procedures in the state."A charitable interpretation would be mixed on crisis management," Birkland told BI about Trump's past responses to natural disasters. Kneeland said that storm victims and disaster experts largely criticized his handling of Hurricane Maria.During his time in office, Trump's administration rolled back more than 125 environmental rules, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks-list.html">Washington Post</a> found, with a big focus on deregulating the fossil fuel industry. Trump's campaign has, according to Birkland, "been pretty clear that it disdains alternative fuels."Harris doesn't have a presidential record to back up her approach to disaster relief, but Birkland anticipates she'd take a relatively similar approach to President Joe Biden.As attorney general, Harris prosecuted oil companies that broke environmental rules. During her tenure as vice president, she voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which devoted $370 billion to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.But both Birkland and Kneeland told BI that Harris has become less aggressive about addressing climate change this election, likely in an attempt to court more moderate voters."Harris' position is a little murkier," Birkland said. "Harris has been clear that we should be doing things like alternative energy, but also supports, as of recent months, continued fossil fuel production. So it's kind of a both-and strategy."Presidents are somewhat limited in their disaster responses — both Kneeland and Birkland told BI that states and local governments lead disaster responses, with the federal government's assistance."Even when FEMA is on the ground they must work within the structure of existing state and local government," Kneeland said in his written statement. The responsibility is, he said, layered throughout the government.Regardless, all eyes are on how Harris and Trump respond to the twin storms — and the outcome of the election could theoretically hang in the balance. Kneeland said that disaster response can either greatly boost or doom an incumbent, pointing to instances as varied as Hurricane Betsey in 1965, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.Though Birkland doesn't anticipate that the hurricanes will sway many voters, he said that even a small impact in swing states could matter."I think most people's minds are made up. I think that you're really dealing with the margins," he said. "On the other hand, this election is going to be won or lost on the margins, so that matters."

Hurricanes are taking the election by storm. Here's where Harris and Trump stand on natural disaster policies.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran has vowed a "crushing response" following Israel's late October airstrikes.</li><li>Israel's attack came in response to an Iranian missile barrage on October 1.</li></ul>Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said there would be a "crushing response" following Israel's airstrikes on the country last week.Israel said it carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-military-idf-targets-iran-retaliatory-strikes-missile-barrage-2024-10">"targeted and precise strikes"</a> on Iranian military sites on October 26, almost four weeks after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">Iran launched around 180 ballistic missiles</a> at Israel in retaliation to the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders."The United States of America and the Zionist regime will definitely receive a crushing response for what they do against <a target="_blank" class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1loqt21" href="https://x.com/hashtag/Iran?src=hashtag_click">#Iran</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="css-1jxf684 r-bcqeeo r-1ttztb7 r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1loqt21" href="https://x.com/hashtag/Resistance?src=hashtag_click">#Resistance</a> Front," a post on Khamenei's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1852657586505384183">X</a> account on Saturday read.Speaking at a press conference last week, a senior US official said that while the US was not a participant in the planning or execution of the Israeli operation, President Joe Biden and his national security team had encouraged Israel to respond to Iran in a "targeted and proportional" manner with "low risk of civilian harm."Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced on Friday that it <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-bombers-troops-israel-iran-middle-east-tensions-2024-11">planned to send</a> additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and "several" US Air Force B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers to the Middle East in the coming months.Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the moves were designed to help protect US civilians and forces in the region, defend Israel, and de-escalate "through deterrence and diplomacy."US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X on Saturday that B-52s from Minot Air Force Base's 5th Bomb Wing had arrived in CENTCOM's area of responsibility.Khamenei's comments have taken a more hostile tone from those he made in the immediate aftermath of the Israeli strikes in late October.Khamenei said then that Iranian officials should decide how to respond to the attacks, adding that they "should neither be magnified nor downplayed."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-strikes-iran-middle-east-tensions-next-moves-2024-10">Experts had predicted</a> that Iran may look "an off-ramp" or launch a small-scale retaliation following Israel's strikes.

Iran warns of 'crushing response' following Israeli airstrikes as Pentagon announces plans to bolster US presence in the Middle East

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Sweden has dropped plans for 13 wind farms in the Baltic Sea due to security concerns.</li><li>Wind turbines could interfere with radar and slow Sweden's missile response, its army said.</li></ul>Sweden has quashed plans for 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea over concerns that they could impede its response to a missile attack.Sweden, which joined NATO earlier this year, shares a coast on the Baltic Sea with Russia."With war in close vicinity, Sweden finds itself in a serious security situation," Pål Jonson, Sweden's defense minister, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/PlJonson/status/1853393931876106541">wrote on X</a> on Monday.Jonson shared a graphic to illustrate how a cluster of wind turbines could impede the country's ability to detect incoming cruise or ballistic missiles. A recent study produced by the Swedish Armed Forces concluded that an extra minute could be added to the country's response time to an incoming missile due to the turbines, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/forsvarsmakten-vill-stoppa-planerad-vindkraft-i-ostersjon">Swedish national broadcaster SVT reported</a>.It said that the towers and their blades produce radar echoes and interference both in the air and underwater, making missiles and submarines in their vicinity harder to detect.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-nato-alliance-new-ways-strike-russia-targets-kaliningrad-stpetersburg-2024-3">Sweden's accession to NATO</a> earlier this year has seen it step up its military readiness in the Baltic, including beefing up security around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-both-eyes-crucial-baltic-island-gotland-sweden-army-chief-2024-5">the strategic island of Gotland</a>.Jonson, in his posts, said it was "important" to note Sweden's proximity to "heavily militarized Kaliningrad" — a Russian exclave that borders Lithuania and Poland and has a coastline on the Baltic Sea.Offshore wind power is a priority for Sweden's government, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.barrons.com/news/sweden-s-defence-concerned-by-planned-offshore-wind-power-c0a8c95f">Jonson told AFP</a>.The 13 wind farms would have been placed along Sweden's eastern coast, stretching from the Åland archipelago in the north to Öresund in the south, outlet <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10066739">Yle reported</a>.The government did approve one farm, off Sweden's western coast, it said.Monday's decision is a blow to Sweden's renewable energy plans. A 2022 Swedish Energy Agency report <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/business/energy/swedish-power-demand-could-double-by-2035-amid-electrification-drive-idUSL8N3352RH">seen by Reuters</a> estimated that the country's energy consumption could double by 2035.Wind farms were seen as one of the major ways to plug that gap, Reuters reported.

A NATO country rejected offshore wind farms it said could slow its response to a Russian missile attack

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spy mania in Russia has created an environment that's stifling innovation, sources told BI.</li><li>Arrests for treason in Russia have soared, human rights experts said.</li></ul>Ivan Pavlov, a Russian-born lawyer who now lives in Europe, was 51 was he was forced to leave his home country. After years of representing Russians who had been accused of treason, he was put on the nation's wanted list and labeled as a "foreign agent" in 2021 — a term that, in Russia, is equated with spy, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/01/russia-new-restrictions-foreign-agents">Human Rights Watch</a>.Eventually, he knew he had to flee, he told Business Insider in an interview."All my professional life was in Russia," he said. "My family was inside Russia and it was a huge [suffering]."The arrest of accused "spies" has risen dramatically since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine, Pavlov and other human rights experts told BI.That could end up having a big knock-on effect on Russia's already-weakened economy. Possible impacts include decreased investment, decreased consumption, and slower growth as Russia shifts away from a capitalistic society, Richard Portes, an economist from the London Business School, says."You do have an inhibition on risk-taking, innovation," Portes told BI on the intensifying pursuit of foreign agents in Russia. "For those who remain, you're not going to get any dynamic economic activity. Aside from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">brain drain</a>, aside from the drain of young people, you're not going to get any innovation. And I think that's the medium-term consequence of all this: disastrous."Sergei Guriev, another economist who was deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, agrees the crackdown on perceived security threats could hurt the country economically.He used the example of Russia recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-arrests-3-hypersonic-missile-scientists-for-treason-2023-5">arresting some of its missile scientists</a>, which has made others in the scientific community fearful of publishing new research, he said."We can expect that it should impact economic growth," he added, though he noted the effect may not be immediately felt.Russia's economy is showing some signs that the kind of risk-taking associated with innovation and entrepreneurship is on the decline. Innovation in Russia has fallen behind the nation's level of development, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/global-innovation-index-2024/assets/67729/2000%20Global%20Innovation%20Index%202024_WEB2.pdf">2024 ranking</a> from the World Intellectual Property Organization. Patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, while patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://rospatent.gov.ru/content/uploadfiles/otchet-2023.pdf">Russian Patent Office</a>.Russia minted just 240,458 new LLCs in 2022, about half of the number of new companies that registered in 2015, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/entrepreneurship">World Bank entrepreneurship</a> database.Private investment in Russia is also down. Private equity and venture capital-backed M&amp;A deals and funding rounds in Russia dropped around 39% from 2022 to 2023, with the nation seeing just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/2-years-on-private-capital-flees-russia-builds-slowly-in-ukraine-80421379">$1.4 billion</a> of those types deals last year, according to S&amp;P Global data. Merger and acquisition deal value as a whole also dropped 71% to $6.41 billion, down from $22.48 billion the prior year.<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/132_28-08-2024.html">Corporate profits</a> in Russia also dropped around 6% in the first half of the year in 2024. Meanwhile, profits from Russia's professional, scientific, and technical activities dropped around 19% over the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago, Rosstat data shows.These outcomes are partly influenced by a more restrictive environment in Russia, Portes said, in addition to some of Moscow's other challenges, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">high inflation</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">flight of some of its most educated</a> workers."The longer-term consequences, the medium-term consequences, are hollowing out [the economy]," he said. "It's very sad, but that's what it is."<h3 id="c673f304-1ae4-43f5-81a2-d4145eb78dc1">Moscow's spy mania</h3>The number of Russians being accused of treason has skyrocketed in recent years, Guriev says. He estimates that over 100 people each year are now being arrested for treason. That's likely because Russia's government is focused on creating an "atmosphere of fear," and "paralyzing resistance" amid the war in Ukraine, Pavlov said.Constant fear of persecution doesn't mix with a capitalistic society, Portes says."The thing about capitalism — capitalism has its defects for sure — but it works because it gives incentives to people to take risks," he said. "The circumstances of a country that's like what Russia is right now, the incentive to take risks, there is a strong disincentive".Other experts have noted that Russia looks to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">drifting away</a> from a capitalist structure, particularly as it boosts public spending to fund its war efforts in Ukraine.Previously, Portes predicted that Russia was on its way to being reduced to a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">natural resource economy</a>." That could lead to a lower quality of life for Russians, he predicted, hitting the nation with sluggish economic growth and a decline in everything from education to medical care.Moscow's economy isn't necessarily at risk of collapse, thanks to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty government spending on the war</a>, Portes says, though he still sees a dark economic future ahead of the nation."It's a disaster. We have plenty of examples in history where a war economy can keep on going, even though everything is crumbling around it. And I think that's what you have now," he added.

How national security panics in Russia could stifle innovation and hurt its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Putin has drawn a new red line over the West's support for Ukraine.</li><li>He said lifting the ban on using long-range missiles to strike Russia would mean war with the West.</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn a new red line, threatening the West with war if the UK and US approve plans to give Ukraine more leeway to use Western long-range missiles to strike Russia itself.Speaking to Russian state media on Thursday, Putin said that Ukraine can't operate the missiles alone because they need Western technical support and satellite guidance.This, he said, means any strikes with them directly implicate the West."This will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia,"<a target="_blank" class="" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75092"> Putin said.</a>"And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us."The threat was unusually stark.It came as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer traveled to Washington, DC, where he is expected to discuss with President Joe Biden how Ukraine can use the British Storm Shadow missiles in its arsenal.Analysts say it's not the first time the Russian president has drawn a red line over Western involvement in the conflict — only to back down."Russia has not previously escalated militarily against perceived Western violations of Russia's 'red lines,'" noted the Institute for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-12-2024">Study of War, a US think tank, </a>of Putin's remarks Thursday, saying the remarks are aimed at "influencing the ongoing Western policy debate."<h2 id="f0ffa658-f5f0-431a-8f48-b59842d7ed8b">February 2022 — an opening warning</h2>Days after the invasion, in February 2022,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-threatens-worst-ever-consequences-if-west-intervenes-in-ukraine-2022-2"> Putin warned</a> Western countries that attempts to interfere in the war would lead to consequences "such as you have never seen in your entire history."To underline his point, he placed Russia's nuclear forces on high alert.But Ukraine's Western allies have provided billions in military aid to Ukraine, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-can-still-beat-russia-comes-down-to-western-aid-2024-5">sending the aid incrementally in</a> the form of increasingly effective weapons.History-making consequences have yet to arrive.<h2 id="567c38f8-6b78-41b3-adbd-de8758dddf19">September 2022 — new territory</h2>Putin issued another dire threat as Russia found itself on the back foot against a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.Putin annexed large swaths of the territory Russia had conquered, declaring them as much a part of Russia as Moscow. He hinted that he'd defend the land with nuclear weapons."<a target="_blank" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/21/putin-calls-300000-reservists-partial-mobilisation/">This is not a bluff</a>," he said.Yet Ukraine continued to drive back Russian forces that year until a stalemate developed, and has targetted occupied territory, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/storm-shadow-hits-2-crimea-bridges-scalps-missile-arrive-france-2023-8">including the Crimea peninsula,</a> with long-range Western weapons.<h2 id="f93fd5fd-c976-477a-8a2c-622e20a5acfe">June 2024 — long-range strikes</h2>A decision by Ukraine's Western allies to allow it to use some weapons for attacks on Russia provoked another round of thinly-veiled threats."They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into Russian territory," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-europe-face-serious-consequences-ukraine-strikes-russia-2024-5">Putin reportedly said in June.</a>Yet Western weapons have been used several times in attacks on Russian territory. It has not triggered an attack on NATO by Russia.Ukraine says the threats, even if they don't come good, have still worked.They <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQdCl-cX-cU">succeded in rattling the West</a>, it says, leading it to supply Ukraine weapons in a piecemeal way and much later than Ukraine seeks them.This, Ukraine says, holds it back from ever truly making headway in the war.It has long requested the capacity to use long-range missiles for attacks deep inside Russia, targeting bases and disrupting supply networks.<h2 id="9e74bcf0-b70c-4927-a797-f2b06cf1b8f4">August 2024 — a ground invasion</h2>Ukraine's President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-third-bridge-damaged-ukrainian-incursion-kursk-region-2024-08-19/">Volodymyr Zelenskyy said </a>that Ukraine's audacious cross-border attack it launched in August on Russia's Kursk province showed that Putin's red lines are "crumbling."The attack was the clearest defiance of Putin yet — a direct assault on Russian territory — yet Russia has done little more than divert some units to stop Ukraine's advance and downplayed its importance.<h2 id="71e4fe84-9daf-405c-9349-3521613c6abe">Another bluff?</h2><div type="image" title="The back view of a figure in a green camouflage jacket and helmet looking at a damaged apartment building" height="1334" width="2000" msid="113328222" hostid="261" sizebytes="437724"></div>The Kremlin is employing the playbook again over the long-range strikes.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week warned the West not to joke about its red lines."But they should understand—they are joking about our red lines here. They shouldn't joke about our red lines," he remarked<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/lavrov-warns-us-not-mock-russias-red-lines-2024-09-04/"> in a Russian TV interview.</a>Analysts writing for the US think tank Responsible Statecraft <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/12/testing-russias-red-lines-could-become-a-fatal-experiment/">last June</a> said that the West would never know if it had crossed a real Russian red line until it's too late."We are likely to discover that we have gone too far only after we find ourselves in a direct confrontation with Russia, not before," they wrote.According to<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/us/politics/biden-ukraine-weapons.html"> The New York Times</a>, Biden is wary of allowing Ukraine to use US long-range missiles in attacks on Russia because the response could come not in the form of a direct attack on the US but by enabling Iran to target US bases in the Middle East.It's a less terrifying scenario than nuclear war — but still constitutes a dangerous escalation that could spiral out of control.For now, though, the US and its allies seem to be willing to wager that the benefits of providing Ukraine with the permission to use the long-range weapons in attacks on Russia outweigh the risks."I wouldn't attach excessive importance to Putin's latest declarations," Polish <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/sarahrainsford/status/1834510878655312373">Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Friday.</a>

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