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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Failing US power grids could be the next vulnerability in the supply chain for <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword>, energy trader Brynne Kelly says.</li><li>Most of western and central US is at high risk of <keyword id="11917808" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="electricity" source="Orion">electricity</keyword> shortfalls or disruption this summer, research has found. </li></ul><ul class="summary-list"></ul>Electricity grid problems in the US are a potential "<keyword id="12980098" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="black-swan" source="Orion">black swan</keyword>" that could wreak havoc in energy <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>, according to Cornerstone Futures research director Brynne Kelly. In an <a href="https://www.cornerstoneglobalcommodities.com/post/energy-markets-is-electricity-the-next-black-swan">analyst note</a>, the energy trader argues that failing power grids and electricity shortages could be the next vulnerability in the supply chain for oil and its products, such as gasoline.Those under-the-surface risks are being overlooked, and that makes them a possible "black swan" — an unpredicted event with a severe impact. While crude oil isn't much used to generate electricity, power itself is needed to make oil, Kelly noted."Said another way, a failing power grid COULD BE the next oil chain supply problem," she said."Problems with power grids across the US and other countries are a potential catalyst for chaos in energy markets that are underappreciated."The reliability of the US electricity grid is being taken for granted, Kelly said. But it's under pressure as the industry goes through a mandated shift from fossil fuels to <keyword id="11963839" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="clean-energy" source="Orion">clean energy</keyword> sources, and with the peak summer demand ahead.She pointed to the impact of a rare 2021 winter storm in Uri, Texas, to show how disruption in electricity supply can spread to other sectors. Failures in the state's ERCOT power grid proved catastrophic for operations there, as the domino effect hit energy producers, as transportation, water and telecoms.Texas is one of the largest oil-producing states in the US, accounting for 42.7% of crude oil production, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php">according to the US Energy Information Administration.</a>"A power grid failure on any scale larger than a local one like we saw in Texas, would be, and could be potentially catastrophic," Kelly said. "If the fallout from Uri in Texas ... were any indication, natural gas and oil pricing could be affected by power failures due to heat, storms or some other unplanned event," she added."We are not predicting or sounding alarms, but the risk is poorly quantified. It won't matter until it matters, unfortunately."Concerns are mounting about US power grids ability to cope with peak summer demand, as the clean energy shift moves forward without necessarily having the technology in place to keep them resilient.In a <a href="https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC_SRA_2022.pdf">recent assessment</a> of the US electricity grid's reliability, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. warned about capacity shortfalls and high risk of energy emergencies due to heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, among other factors. "Russian attackers may be planning or attempting malicious cyber activity to gain access and disrupt the electric grid in North America in retaliation for support to Ukraine," the report's authors said.Electrical grids in the west and most of central US, including Texas, have an high risk of insufficient operating reserves, the NERC found.But in a recent note, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/052422-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season-could-mean-hits-to-us-power-gas-markets">S&amp;P Global</a> noted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is predicted for the US this year, which could dampen power demand in Texas. When storms hit in 2021, daily power burn in the region dropped 25%, it noted.The most important thing, according to Kelly, is that the markets for oil, gasoline and natural gas are already squeezed on the supply side, given the Ukraine war and sanctions. A break in the reliability of electricity is a potential risk that should be acknowledged."So far there have not been problems at the last stop on the chain, power generation and transmission. Regardless, the supply chain is vulnerable," Kelly said.

A potential 'black swan' for US oil prices is being overlooked: unreliable electricity grids

<keyword id="119515" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reliance-ADA-group">Reliance ADA Group</keyword> was actively involved with one of the accused firm in <keyword id="6395301" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="2G">2G</keyword> spectrum case <keyword id="153320" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Swan-Telecom">Swan Telecom</keyword> Pvt. Ltd. (STPL) by fully funding the latter in an alleged violation of stipulated rules, CBI alleged today. 

	The agency said that the Group made the funding through a "circuitous route" when STPL had applied for 2G licences in 14 telecom circles across the country. 
 

	"It (transactions) was disguised. It was done to increase the paid up capital of STPL," special public prosecutor Anand Grover told Special CBI Judge O P Saini. 
 

	In its charge sheet, CBI has alleged that Reliance Telecom Ltd (RTL) had used STPL, an ineligible firm, as front company to get the 2G licenses and the costly radio waves. 
 

	All the accused had denied allegations levelled against them by CBI. 
 

	(Image credits: Indiatimes)

New CBI report suggests active involvement of Reliance ADAG in 2G scam

Mumbai, Apr 2 () Crisil on Thursday said India Inc's credit ratio fell to an over three-year low for the second half of FY20, and gave a "negative" outlook for FY21 expecting downgrades to continue outpacing upgrades due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The credit ratio, or the number of companies upgraded to those downgraded, slipped to 0.77 for the September 2019-March 2020 period, down from 1.21 in the preceding six months. However, from a quantum of loans perspective, the debt-rated credit ratio rose to 1.24 from 0.25 in the preceding six months. There is little scope for optimism in FY21, due to the overhang of the COVID-19 crisis, the agency said. Its president Gurpreet Chhatwal said the pandemic has slammed brakes on economic activity and also has the possibility of human suffering, which is unprecedented. It is a black-swan event and we are very early into the crisis, making it difficult to model the economic impact, he said, adding that the agency has done an impact analysis on 35 sectors with a debt outstanding of Rs 23 lakh crore. The rating agency has assumed a lockdown period of up to 2 months and another one month for normalcy to return after that as its base case. Chhatwal said economic activity will begin only in the second quarter. The analysis says that auto dealers, and companies in the gems and jewellery, airlines, real estate and steel sectors do poorly because of leveraged balance sheets and dependence on discretionary spending for survival. For a few sectors like telecom and fast moving consumer goods, the crisis can get turned into an opportunity as well, the analysis said. Its senior director Somasekhar Vemuri said 44 per cent of the rated debt in 15 sectors shows a high degree of resilience to withstand the pressures, while 52 per cent of the debt in 15 sectors is showcases a moderate resilience with a downward bias and five sectors with 4 per cent of the debt have low resilience to confront the crisis. In what can come as a relief, the agency said the non-bank lenders it rates have adequate liquidity to manage repayments for the next two months despite the drying up of repayments by borrowers. On the securitised portfolios sold to other lenders, Crisil said most of the rated pass through certificates can withstand the drop in collections because of the option of moratorium on repayments given by Reserve Bank of India till May 2020. On the asset quality perspective, Vemuri said banks' non-performing loans may go up due to the crisis, but added that it is too difficult to make an estimate of the same right now. Impact on asset quality will differ across asset classes depending on resilience of the underlying borrower segment to lockdown and eventual lifting of the same, the agency said. AA SHW ANSANS

India Inc's credit ratio drops to 3-year low in second half of FY20: Crisil

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">David Silverman/Getty ImagesAn Intel chip is seen in a circuit board being built at an ECI Telecom high-tech plant January 15, 2003.</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>Major US chipmaker Intel on Wednesday said it had begun selling products to Huawei again as the US begins to loosen restrictions on the Chinese telecommunications giant. </li><li>Intel CEO Bob Swan told <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/intel-says-it-has-applied-for-licenses-to-sell-to-blacklisted-huawei.html">CNBC</a> on Wednesday that the company had resumed selling certain products to Huawei "within the rules of the law" during the second quarter, and that it was seeking permission to sell "general purpose computing" chips to the company that he believes do not pose a national security risk. </li><li>Intel's renewed business with Huawei comes as the US continues to shift its policy regarding the Chinese telecommunications giant, which has been <a href="https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1131657560455389184">thrust into the center</a> of trade war negotiations between China and the US.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/?hprecirc-bullet">Visit Business Insider's home page for more stories.</a></li></ul>US chipmaker Intel on Wednesday said it had begun selling products to Huawei again as the US begins to loosen the restrictions placed on the Chinese telecommunications giant in May.Intel CEO Bob Swan told <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/intel-says-it-has-applied-for-licenses-to-sell-to-blacklisted-huawei.html">CNBC</a> on Wednesday that the company had resumed selling certain products to Huawei "within the rules of the law" during the second quarter. He added that Intel was seeking permission to sell "general purpose computing" chips to the company that he believes do not pose a national security risk. Swan said the company has also submitted "quite a few licenses" to sell products which President Trump has stated would be processed in a "timely" manner. Intel's renewed business with Huawei comes as the US continues to shift its policy regarding Huawei, the largest telecommunications equipment producer in the world, which has been <a href="https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1131657560455389184">thrust into the center</a> of trade war negotiations between China and the US.The Trump administration previously raised concerns that Huawei technology could pose a national security risk and may be used as a backdoor for Chinese government espionage. Other nations, including Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-huawei-ncsc-usa/five-eyes-will-not-use-huawei-in-sensitive-networks-senior-us-official-idUSKCN1S01CZ">have also considered</a> that Huawei tech might pose a security risk.The US Department of Commerce <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china-huaweitech-idUKKCN1SL2VW">added Huawei to a trade blacklist</a> in May, which prevented the company from buying important parts and components from American companies without US government approval. But after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit last month, President Trump said that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-to-allow-us-firms-huawei-deal-2019-6">US firms can resume selling equipment to Huawei</a>."US companies can sell their equipment to Huawei ... there's no great, national emergency problem," Trump told reporters after his meeting.Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-meets-with-google-intel-cisco-to-discuss-huawei-sales-2019-7">Trump meets with top US tech leaders to discuss sales to Huawei as he moves to soften restrictions against the Chinese tech giant</a>Earlier this month, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/speeches/2019/07/remarks-us-commerce-secretary-wilbur-l-ross-bureau-industry-and-security">announced</a> an easing of restrictions against the Chinese company in line with Trump's statements after the G20 summit, stating that the US would issue licenses to US companies looking to sell to Huawei as long as it does not pose a threat to national security, though the company remains on the US trade blacklist. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-meets-with-google-intel-cisco-to-discuss-huawei-sales-2019-7">President Trump also met with leaders</a> from Google, Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm, Micron, Broadcom, and Western Digital Corporation - all top producers of US technology equipment - to discuss national security restrictions against sales to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei.Trump's meeting with prominent US chipmakers followed reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mnuchin-urges-seek-approval-suppliers-sell-to-blacklisted-huawei-2019-7">encouraged US suppliers</a> to seek governmental approval to resume selling equipment to the embattled Chinese company in an attempt to uplift trade negotiations with China. This week, Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer held a brief round of trade talks with their Chinese counterparts in Beijing after previous negotiations reached a deadlock in May and led to both countries <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-intel-qualcomm-reportedly-cut-off-critical-software-to-huawei-2019-5">announcing increasing tariffs</a> on a wide array of imports. Beijing said it considered this week's talks "constructive," according to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/china-us-officials-meet-for-trade-talks-in-shanghai.html">CNBC</a>, and agreed to reconvene talks with the US in September. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intelligence/top-3-biggest-smartphone-trends?IR=T&amp;itm_source=businessinsider&amp;itm_medium=ctgr_bii&amp;itm_term=ctgr_leadgen&amp;itm_content=huawei&amp;itm_campaign=top-3-biggest-smartphone-trends"></a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-privacy-hacking-scandal-mark-zuckerberg-cambridge-analytica-2019-5">Facebook's scandals aren't enough for people to stop using it. Here's how the company has held up through data hacks, lawsuits, and massive security threats.</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Intel says it's been selling tech to Huawei as the US eases up on the Chinese company

Welcome to Finance Insider, Business Insider's summary of the top stories of the past 24 hours. Sign up here to <a href="http://e.businessinsider.com/join/ci/finance-insider-social-first&amp;hash=36afac95fa844948a9f363295d512fca">get the best of Business Insider delivered direct to your inbox.</a>Mergers and acquisitions are back.M&amp;A bankers are set to split nearly $330 million in fees from three megadeals announced over Sunday and Monday, according to consulting firm Freeman &amp; Co.These deals include a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/t-mobile-sprint-new-company-merger-details-2018-4">$26 billion merger</a> between telecom giants T-Mobile and Sprint; oil refiner Marathon's acquisition of Andeavor for $23 billion; and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.nl/sainsburys-to-buy-asda-from-walmart-in-10-billion-deal-2018-4/">Wal-Mart's sale of its UK grocery business Asda to Sainsbury</a> for $10 billion. Here's the latest:<ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/t-mobile-sprint-new-company-merger-details-2018-4">IT'S OFFICIAL: T-Mobile and Sprint are coming together to form a $146 billion new company to take on Verizon and AT&amp;T</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/sprint-t-mobile-merger-softbank-lost-money-dragging-its-feet-2018-4">Sprint's Japanese owner cost itself a ton of money dragging its feet on the blockbuster T-Mobile merger</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/t-mobile-sprint-marathon-andeavor-walmart-asda-sainsburys-deal-fees-2018-4">WALL STREET PAYDAY: Dealmakers could pull in $330 million in fees from takeover frenzy</a></li><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/walmart-stock-price-merger-jsainsbury-supermarket-faces-regulatory-roadblock-2018-4-1022909279">How Goldman Sachs, UBS, and more reacted to Walmart's $10 billion 'Black Swan' deal to sell Asda</a></li><li><a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/walmart-stock-price-merger-jsainsbury-supermarket-faces-regulatory-roadblock-2018-4-1022909279">Walmart's new $10 billion dollar deal is facing a big roadblock</a></li></ul>Elsewhere in deal news, investors are frustrated with Botox-maker Allergan - <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/allergan-earnings-strategic-review-2018-4">and its CEO says it's "deep into the process" of figuring out what to do next</a>.WeWork has raised $6.1 billion and pioneered the co-working movement - <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-new-debt-offering-exposes-problems-in-its-business-model-2018-4">but it increasingly looks like it doesn't understand commercial real estate</a>. And DocuSign popped in its long-awaited IPO - <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/docusign-ipo-ceo-cfo-interview-springer-sheridan-2018-4">now its CEO and CFO explain what's next</a>. In related news, UBS has hired a top investment banker from Deutsche Bank <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-hired-a-top-investment-banker-from-deutsche-bank-2018-4">amid a major ramp-up of its US dealmaking team</a>. In finance news, Morgan Stanley's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-morgan-stanley-to-boost-junior-banker-pay-by-up-to-25-percent-2018-4">youngest bankers could be getting a 25% pay raise</a>. And Goldman Sachs is battling to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-traders-have-mumps-2018-4">contain an outbreak of mumps on the trading floor</a>. And a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/a-bunch-of-former-kcg-staffers-have-found-a-new-home-at-wall-street-broker-instinet-2018-4">bunch of former KCG staffers have found a new home at Wall Street broker Instinet.</a>In markets news, Business Insider recently spoke with <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/tobias-levkovich">Tobias Levkovich</a>, Citigroup's chief US equity strategist, about what's keeping investors complacent. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tobias-levkovich-citi-interview-2018-4">You can read the full interview here</a>. Elsewhere in markets news:<ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-correction-societe-generale-us-stock-traders-setting-up-for-failure-correction-scenario-2018-4">US stock traders are setting themselves up for failure - and one Wall Street firm has pinpointed the scenario that could trigger a crash</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-usd-trading-undergoing-shift-8-reasons-why-you-should-buy-baml-2018-4">BANK OF AMERICA: Trading in the dollar is undergoing a huge shift - here are 8 reasons why you should be buying</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-shouldnt-dismiss-negative-economic-signal-from-flat-yield-curve-2018-4">The Fed is downplaying a key recession indicator that's flashing yellow - but some on Wall Street think 'they are wrong again'</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-stock-recommendations-14-companies-returning-most-cash-to-investors-2018-4">GOLDMAN SACHS: These 14 companies are set to return the most cash to investors this year</a></li></ul><section id="l-content" data-track-page-area="Post" data-post-content=""><section><article><section></section><section>And in crypto news:</section><section></section><ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/coinbase-has-snagged-a-veteran-trader-from-barclays-2018-4">$1.6 billion cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has snagged a veteran trader from Barclays</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blockstream-ice-partnership-question-and-answer-2018-4">"The guardrails haven't been found yet": The execs behind a big Wall Street bitcoin partnership say crypto is still in its infancy</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/basis-ceo-nader-al-naji-interview-on-funding-and-cryptocurrency-2018-4">Meet the 26-year-old ex-Googler who got $133 million for a cryptocurrency startup that could replace money completely</a></li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blocktower-poaching-goldman-sachs-employees-for-crypto-hedge-fund-2018-4">A hot crypto hedge fund keeps poaching talent from Goldman Sachs</a></li></ul>Lastly, Jeff Bezos reveals what it's like to build an empire and become the richest man in the world - <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-interview-axel-springer-ceo-amazon-trump-blue-origin-family-regulation-washington-post-2018-4">and why he's willing to spend $1 billion a year to fund the most important mission of his life</a>.</article></section></section> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/shift-from-growth-to-value-could-signal-the-end-of-the-bull-cycle-2018-4">There's a major shift occurring that could signal the end of the historic bull market</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

What you need to know on Wall Street today

A <keyword id="2226735" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="80" keywordseo="Delhi-CBI-court">Delhi CBI court</keyword> today recorded the statement of A Raja, former Telecom Minister and key accused in the 2G spectrum allocation scam. 
Special CBI Judge OP Saini started the statement recording and said that it was a "direct conversation" between him and the accused (A Raja). 
 
"Now the statement of the accused will be recorded. It is a direct conversation between the accused and the judge... You (accused) may chose to reply or not reply," the judge said. 
 
Prior to this, the court had supplied a draft questionnaire to the accused. The draft contained 1,718 questions and 824 pages. 
 
The court has postponed the deposition of the promoters of the Essar Group and Loop Telecom till May 19. Essar Group promoters Ravi Ruia and Anshuman Ruia, Loop Telecom promoters Kiran Khaitan, her husband IP Khaitan and Essar Group director (strategy and planning) Vikash Saraf are facing trial in the case along with the three firms – Loop Telecom Ltd, Loop Mobile India Ltd and Essar Tele Holding Ltd. 
 
"I think there will be no time for you today. The matter is adjourned for recording of statement of accused till May 19," the judge said. 
All the accused have denied the charges levelled by the CBI in the case. 
 Earlier, the court had recorded the statements of 153 CBI witnesses, including Reliance ADAG chairman <keyword id="9171" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Anil-Ambani">Anil Ambani</keyword>, his wife <keyword id="40530" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Tina-Ambani">Tina Ambani</keyword>, former corporate lobbyist <keyword id="149786" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Niira-Radia">Niira Radia</keyword> and Attorney General GE Vahanvati. The statement ran into more than 4,400 pages. 
 Apart from Raja and Karunanidhi’s daughter <keyword id="131867" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Kanimozhi">Kanimozhi</keyword>, former telecom secretary Siddharth Behura, Raja's former private secretary RK Chandolia, Swan Telecom promoters Shahid Usman Balwa and Vinod Goenka, Unitech Ltd MD Sanjay Chandra, and Reliance ADAG executives – Gautam Doshi, Surendra Pipara and <keyword id="166256" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Hari-Nair">Hari Nair</keyword> – are also facing trial in the case. 
 
Image: Indiatimes

2G
Case: A Raja’s Statement Recorded

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0FCIJ0OPK_D&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1920&amp;RH=865#/SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0FCIJ0OPK_D&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1920&amp;RH=865&amp;POPUPPN=10&amp;POPUPIID=2C0BF1XAW49W4">Yuri Gripas/Reuters</a>U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin testifies before a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Fiscal Yeah (FY) 2019 budget on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., February 14, 2018.</div></div></div><ul><li>Trump is sending a team to Beijing this week to talk trade.</li><li>According to reports, they won't be taking any new goals with them, and the ones they have are non-starters for the Chinese.</li><li>This means that it's likely nothing will come from these negotiations, but nothing is still an increasingly nasty situation for these countries and the global economy.</li></ul>Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and White House advisors Larry Kudlow and Peter Navarro are going to China to talk trade.That means this could be the week we avoid a trade war. That would be grand.More likely, though, in true Trumpian fashion, absolutely nothing will happen at this meeting. Just like with other economic summits between the US and China, it will be much hyped, but with few consequences.That doesn't mean the danger will disappear though. If nothing happens we'll be left with the US-China trade situation we've had up to now. It's a status quo where the absence of diplomacy leaves room for action to come from accidents - from heightened rhetoric forcing hands to save face. <h2>Practice and policy</h2>Policy aims aside, this meetings is already looking a little haphazard.According to the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-plans-trade-offers-for-u-s-envoys-on-high-stakes-trip-1525029506">WSJ</a> the White House has not sent an advance team sent to Beijing to prepare. Meanwhile, the team itself divided. According to reports, Mnuchin has wanted to take a meeting with his counterpart since late March after speaking with China economic enjoy over the phone. He and Kudlow are more amenable to a solution to trade rhetoric. Trump added Lighthizer and Navarro to the mix to get a more hawkish view in the room.What's more, says the WSJ, the delegation is unlikely to put anything new on the table. The main agenda for this group will be to reiterate President Trump's tariff threats against China and see what their counterparts have to say. It is unclear why reiterating talking points merits a meeting - especially when the President is liable to just put them on Twitter - although the WSJ also notes that former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will be in Beijing at the same time. Total coincidence.Seriously, that's what they're saying. They're saying it's a total coincidence.So if you're keeping a tally so far: We're working with no advance preparation, an incohesive team and no new policy ideas to put on the table. The underlying point of the <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-04/25/c_137134508.htm">$150 billion in tariffs</a> the Trump administration has threatened to impose is that the US wants to force China to change its economic policy. It wants China to stop propping up state-owned enterprises and using US technology to forward its "Made in China 2025" plan to be a world leader in AI, robotics and telecommunications. This is what the US wants, and it's a non-starter for China, according to an unnamed official in the <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143337/donald-trump-sends-trade-hawks-china-us-considers?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioschina&amp;stream=top-stories">South China Morning Post.</a> China is willing to say, buy more US goods, but it will not go as far as changing its economic goals or how it plans to reach them. Trump may be setting a goal that sets his team up for failure.<h2>The art of the squeal</h2>Now, maybe this meeting will see a swing to the middle by the US side.As <a href="https://www.axios.com/one-trick-pony-inside-trumps-negotiating-style-3b60acf3-76e1-4c7d-9c6b-8792ad38479b.html">Axios' Jonathan Swan noted,</a> people are starting to get the hang of Trump's negotiating tactic. Basically, go in with tough talk and then adjust to a more middle of the road position. It happened with steel and aluminum tariffs, with withdrawal from Afghanistan and Syria, and vetoing the government spending bill, to name a few examples. All of those issues started heated and ended tepid. Like I said, it's the art of the squeal.This potential US-China trade war could be another situation to add to this list, but we have no reason to believe the administration is going to go into moderate mode just yet. In fact, we have every reason to believe the opposite.Last Friday, the US put China on a "<a href="https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/april/ustr-releases-2018-special-301-report">priority watch list" of 12 countries</a> that consistently violate intellectual property rules for the 14th year in row, and according to reports, there's talk of initiating another trade investigation into <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143836/expect-tough-talk-when-us-trade-hawks-visit-china-not">China's cloud computing industry.</a>Plus, earlier this month the Commerce Department put sanctions on Chinese telecom supplier ZTE. For the next 7 years, the company will not have access to US parts because it violated intellectual property agreements. Sounds good, but the situation has US experts worried that other countries (maybe even China) will develop the technology to fill the gap.James Andrew Lewis over at the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/zte-and-building-americas-competitors?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioschina&amp;stream=top-stories">Center for Strategic and International Studies</a> explained why fining ZTE may have been a better idea:In the 1960s, or even the 1970s, the United States could get away with this kind of blanket proscription. It made technology that no one else could duplicate. That is no longer true. The diffusion of technological capabilities around the work began more than 20 years ago, and the rate of diffusion continues to increase. Just this week, China's president, Xi Jinping, called for China to redouble its efforts to close the gap with the United States in advanced technologies...U.S. technological leadership is diminishing as other countries become more adept at creating advanced technology, but our actions can affect and limit the pace and scope of this. The goal should not be to accelerate technological competition; ZTE's punishment, however well deserved, may have the opposite effect.Either way, the ZTE situation seemed to <a href="http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/2143534/us-tech-ban-zte-has-exposed-chinas-achilles-heel">bother the Chinese press.</a> So, since you're still keeping score, what we have is a meeting of two parties who have yet to make any headway in the past, and have not changed their expectations. Meanwhile, the stakes are getting higher, a trade war is looming, and the Trump administration is taking aggressive action that some experts worry may backfire.If nothing happens at this meeting we're probably getting the best case scenario. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Insider. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-hatheway-gam-economist-biggest-market-fear-tax-policy-trade-2018-4">A $163 billion chief economist outlines his biggest market fear</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

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