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<ul class="summary-list"><li>South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in response to North Korea's support for Russia.</li><li>Its weapons stockpiles could make a big difference for Ukraine.</li></ul>South Korea threatened to send weapons and resources to Ukraine in response to its longtime foe, North Korea, escalating support for Russia's invasion.If it goes ahead, it could prove a powerful ally.After an emergency<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-friendship-north-korea-backfired-south-military-troops-weapons-ukraine-2024-10"> National Security Council meeting</a> this week, top South Korean officials condemned North Korea for sending troops to Russia.Their mission has not been made explicit, but Ukraine has said they are there to join Russia's invasion.Officials also briefed news outlets that Seoul could send weapons to Ukraine as part of a series of phased countermeasures.South Korean news agency Yonhap on Tuesday cited security officials who said Seoul could even send military personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korea's presence in the conflict.Russia's foreign ministry threatened South Korea with "security consequences" should it get involved, Yonhap reported.<h2 id="8030f100-6bcd-42f0-9d67-a514993196e6">A fearsome arsenal</h2>Analysts say Russia has a good reason to be concerned."South Korean weapons could potentially make a significant difference on both Ukraine's defensive capabilities and offensive capabilities," Jeremy Chan, a China and northeast Asia analyst at the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider.South Korea, a US ally, has built a formidable arsenal of weapons in its decadeslong stand-off with North Korea.It includes antiaircraft and anti-missile systems which could help Ukraine defend its towns and infrastructure from Russian attacks, Chan said.There are also "world-class" K9 Howitzer guns, K2 tanks, and multiple-rocket-launcher systems, Chan said.Seoul has already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-south-korea-weapons-are-fueling-war-in-ukraine-2024-6">aided the supply of much-needed 155 mm shells to Ukraine</a>, albeit at one remove.South Korea sent ammo to Western allies like the US and Poland, which freed them up to send their own to Ukraine.Ellen Kim, a Korea expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, told BI that South Korean support for Kyiv could include giving intelligence on North Korean weapons and tactics."South Korea could assist in a psychological warfare campaign against North Korean soldiers who may not want to fight in the war" as well, said Kim.US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday "there is evidence" that North Korean troops were already training in Russia, and warned against them joining the fight.Experts on the country's military told BI that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-kim-north-korea-stops-troops-defecting-ukraine-russia-brutal-2024-10">soldiers sent there would be put under harsh measures</a> to discourage them from deserting.<div type="image" title="Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin stand under a stone gazebo surrounded by people in military dress and others in suits." height="683" width="1024" msid="114584570" hostid="261" sizebytes="76672"></div><h2 id="85fcc947-0229-475c-b487-07c13f903651">South Korea hesitates</h2>Significant obstacles stand in the way of South Korea arming Ukraine, though. Not least is South Korea's long-standing ban on sending military assistance to foreign countries at war.Chan said South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol was domestically unpopular and would encounter difficulties repealing the law via South Korea's center-left-dominated National Assembly."North Korea's actions would have to present a clearer and more immediate threat to South Korea's national security before we would expect the National Assembly to authorize export of weapons to Ukraine," he said.Another factor is South Korea's desire to not entirely destroy its relationship with Russia, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-alliance-north-korea-proving-to-be-a-win-win-2024-8">despite its growing fears about</a> the Kremlin empowering North Korea and emboldening its leader Kim Jong Un, said Chain and Kim, the analysts.In return for North Korean shells and military support in Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to stymie UN inspections of North Korea's nuclear program and could be prepared to hand it sophisticated military technology.<div type="image" title="Yoon Suk-yeol" height="1667" width="2500" msid="114584566" hostid="261" sizebytes="131216"></div><h2 id="3c02c1d5-7079-4090-99e7-db43b9ace220">Entrapment dilemma</h2>Chan said Yoon was figuring out the best way to deter Russia."Seoul believes that the threat to provide weapons gives it more leverage over Moscow than it would have if South Korea were to begin providing weapons directly," he said.Future diplomatic and trade ties are another reason South Korea is hesitating to act — as well as the prospect of being pulled further into the Ukraine war than it intends."There is a possibility South Korea could be shooting at Russians and/or North Koreans, and it would internationalize and widen the war further," Sean McFate, a strategy professor at Georgetown University, told BI."Worst case is it sparks a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula that drags the US and China into armed conflict."But the escalating alliance between Russia and North Korea may soon reach a point where South Korea feels it needs to act.Because of Russia's increasing reliance on North Korea, Kim finds himself in a powerful position to negotiate sophisticated technology in return.Such an exchange, said Chan, could be the red line that compels South Korea to get involved in the Ukraine war and send weapons.Although it has the military power to enable Ukraine to hurt Russia, it's an escalation that comes with real risks.As Ellen Kim put it: "North Korea's involvement dramatically raises the risk of entrapment for South Korea in the war."

If South Korea decides to get involved in Ukraine, it has powerful options

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tim Winkler, 26, bought a one-way ticket out of Germany to travel before he started a full-time job.</li><li>During his gap year he looked out for volunteer projects that could also help reduce costs.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Tim Winkler, a recent graduate from Germany taking a gap year to travel. The following has been edited for length and clarity.Two days after submitting my master's thesis in April, I <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/left-hometown-seeking-job-opportunities-au-pair-travel-europe-backpacking-2024-2">bought a one-way ticket</a> for a gap year. I knew I would never have the chance to do something like this again.I had completed a master's degree in teaching at the University of Hamburg in Germany.I set a budget of $10,800 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/millennial-couple-gap-year-burn-out-quit-jobs-travel-world-2024-7">to travel for the entire year</a>, intending to find volunteering projects on sites like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.workaway.info/">Workaway</a> to keep costs down and explore countries in a new way.Other than a short trip to Bangkok, I had never been to Asia. I was curious about its cities and had friends who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tips-travel-south-korea-seoul-mistakes-tourists-make-guide-2023-10">lived in South Korea</a>. So, after spending a month in Japan, I decided to fly to Seoul.Initially, I had difficulty finding a host as few projects were available. But eight days before I headed to South Korea, a host texted me, asking, "Hey, are you still free?"He needed volunteers for his chestnut farm on the outskirts of Cheongyang, a village two hours from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surprising-differences-between-us-south-korea-expat-2023-12">Seoul</a>. He was also able to host me for two months.I replied: "Yes, I am. Very much so."<h2 id="ef9371ea-816d-4e44-83d8-f7996b3a11e6">I didn't know what to expect on the farm</h2><div type="image" title="A man takes a selfie with two other people, who are sleeping." height="1200" width="1600" msid="112275157" hostid="261" sizebytes="111202"></div>It was a nice working atmosphere and there was no pressure to finish tasks by a certain time. We went out to do some weeding between the chestnut trees.I was fortunate to form a strong relationship with my host and his family. It wasn't like he'd just give orders; we were really living together.I lived in his house, and the accommodation was basic. It consisted of a room with a bunk bed and another room with two air mattresses for two other volunteers to stay in.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dementia-care-farm-impulssenter-social-life-job-2024-7">On the farm</a>, we had rice for every meal, every day. At first, I was worried that after a week, I'd think, "I've had enough rice. I can't see rice anymore." But that wasn't the case, and I enjoyed every meal.<h2 id="cc06a76a-cad7-4106-898a-4a19be65018f">There was no set schedule on the farm</h2><div type="image" title="A man working on the field in the farm." height="1200" width="1600" msid="112275158" hostid="261" sizebytes="305788"></div>The crops and animals don't care that it's a weekend. So you're there every day of the week.There was no set schedule. Every two or three days, we would leave the house very early, around 5:30 a.m., sometimes even earlier, to start picking a crop called gosari, a type of fern commonly used in Korean side dishes. This would take four or five pickers around four hours.Every other task was dictated by daily occurrences on the farm. For example, we would go to the farm and see that the goats took down a fence. So, on that day, we would rebuild part of a fence. On another, we'd decide to spread some fertilizer because of the amount of rain.We worked seven days a week most of the time. But whenever we had a trip in mind, such as going to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-spicy-stew-dakbokkeumtang-cooked-south-korea-big-batches-2022">Seoul</a> for two or three days, we'd ask the host for time off.Our host always arranged the trips for us and even offered to cover the costs of our meals and tickets to events or museums.<h2 id="64470ba8-9895-4f83-87b6-f68ed4c015f3">Meeting people in my age group was hard</h2><div type="image" title="A man holds a baby goat" height="1600" width="1200" msid="112275161" hostid="261" sizebytes="353376"></div>The village I lived in was very small, with less than 100 villagers, most of whom were in their 60s. I wasn't able to make any local friends my age.However, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/volunteer-sustainable-travel-wwoofing-organic-farm-in-switzerland-2023-5">I enjoyed working outdoors</a> and having variety in my tasks. Also, working with animals was fun.I appreciate that I got to know the locals much better by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/family-save-money-farm-stays-instead-of-hotels-europe-travel-2023-10">living with them</a>. I experienced their day-to-day life, which was much more valuable to me than just visiting a country as a tourist.As I continue on my yearlong trip to places like Spain and Scandinavia, I intend to find projects that will also help me to save costs.<h2 id="d7503f3b-5d89-405f-972b-d4c43096bf0e">I saved at least $2,100 by working on the farm</h2>That amount was about the same as how much I had spent during my month in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tokyo-lesser-known-day-trips-not-mount-fuji-hikes-japan-2024-7">Japan</a>.After my trip ends in April next year, I'll return to Germany and become a full-time teacher.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/teachers-feel-guilty-for-not-working-summer-2024-7">As a teacher</a>, I plan to prepare my students for life in this increasingly globalized world. I hope to transfer the knowledge gained from my experiences in other countries to my future students.

I spent two months working on a farm in South Korea for free lodging and food. It was hard work, but I saved at least $2,000.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Netflix added over 5 million subscribers in the third quarter, beating analyst expectations.</li><li>At 19%, Asia Pacific had the largest revenue growth rate of all regions this quarter.</li></ul>Netflix showed investors once again that it is the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-profit-cash-burn-debt-turnaround-2024-10">king of streaming.</a>In its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-new-subscriber-numbers-beat-expectations-2024-10">third-quarter results released Thursday,</a> the entertainment giant added over 5 million new subscribers and beat analyst expectations for a third straight quarter. It reported revenue of $9.8 billion, a 15% increase year over year, and profit growth of 41% year over year.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-password-sharing-crackdown-worked-how-to-increase-subscription-streaming-2024-1#:~:text=It%20could%20have%20more%20tricks%20to%20lure%20subscribers.&amp;text=Netflix%20added%20almost%2030%20million,in%20the%20end%20Netflix%20prevailed.">crackdown on passwords</a> and growth in advertising-based subscriptions contributed to Netflix's success this quarter. Company executives and industry experts say growth in Asia had a role to play as well."You've got Japan. You've got Korea. You've got Thailand. You've got India," Gregory Peters, the co-CEO of Netflix, said in the earnings call. "This represents, again, that decade-plus investment in those creative communities, working with local storytellers there and making sure that they have the capability to tell their stories in a compelling way."In a shareholder letter on Thursday, Netflix wrote that Asia Pacific had the largest revenue growth rate of all regions, at 19%, compared to the same period last year. Revenue growth in North America and Europe, Middle East, and Africa was tied at 16% each.<h2 id="2fa86f36-dc86-4e43-b871-a1699220d7a2">'Persistence in Asia'</h2>Some industry experts who reacted to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/netflix-questions-from-wall-street-growth-ads-future-earnings-2024-10">Netflix's earnings</a> also pointed to its local content creation strategy."One of the main things about Netflix is just what they have done internationally," Ben Silverman, the chairman and co-CEO of Propagate Content, said in a CNBC interview on Thursday.Instead of just re-expressing content from the US, Netflix has also commissioned content in local languages for local markets, Silverman said.Netflix's greatest success story in the region has been the South Korean production "Squid Game." The first season of the game show-style drama, which was released in 2021 and follows a group of debt-riddled contestants competing in deadly games for cash, has been watched 265 million times globally to date. It's also amassed 2.2 billion hours of watch time, making it the streamer's most-watched show of all time, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/most-popular/tv-non-english">according to Netflix data</a>.In addition to "Squid Game," the Korean drama "All of Us Are Dead" is also on the list of Netflix's 10 most-watched non-English language shows. The rest of the shows on the list are European and Mexican productions, three of which are different seasons of the Spanish hit "Money Heist."Last week, the Japanese manga series "Dan Da Dan" charted among the 10 most-watched shows in the US, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/united-states/tv">Netflix data shows</a>.The variety of original content available of Netflix, and early investments in Japan and Korea, are playing a role in its growth, Dhivya T, the lead analyst of content and platform insights at Media Partners Asia, told Business Insider."Netflix's edge may be in its consistency and persistence in Asia," the analyst said.Netflix appears committed to experimenting with different approaches to local content to meet local market needs, whether it's high-budget originals, licensing free TV dramas, or post-theatrical movies, the analyst said."Beyond content, lower pricing and a concerted crackdown on password sharing has also helped boost Netflix's sub growth in Asia's emerging markets over the past year," she added.Netflix rose 5% in after-hours trading on Thursday. The company's stock is up 46% this year.

Netflix just had a blockbuster quarter, and its Asia strategy had a big role to play in it

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea.</li><li>But any intensified US efforts could trigger a confrontation, experts told BI.</li></ul>The US has played an active security role in the South China Sea in recent years, but with China increasingly confrontational in the region, things could come to a head.US ships and aircraft have repeatedly operated within the wide expanse claimed by China to assert international rights to navigation, carried out <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/US7thFleet/status/1834396679216181394">military</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/indopacom/status/1836389721502568770?s=46&amp;t=o-gfid_uWzVLqbUuvoCCsg">exercises</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1834577777598894323">with</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836163226528350500">regional</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1835438447907295450">allies</a>, and <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/01/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-and-the-philippines/">reaffirmed</a> its <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3836245/track-record-and-trajectory-us-philippine-defense-ties-since-2021-remarks-by-as/">commitments</a> to regional partners.It has also <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836525608056033674">helped</a> Southeast Asian countries to <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828775660015522069">modernize</a> their militaries and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/TeamAFP/status/1828653505885938023">deepen</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/INDOPACOM/status/1836666038475489463">ties</a> with countries pursuing similar security goals.However, some Asia regional analysts warn that any further attempt to intensify US efforts in the contested waters could agitate regional partners, trigger China's ire, and backfire on the US and its partners."The last thing that any Southeast Asian country wants is for this to spill over into an active conflict," Bill Hayton, an associate fellow with Chatham House's Asia-Pacific program, told Business Insider.On the other hand, a US pullback would enable China to bully its smaller neighbors in ways that could also trigger a military clash.They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added.<div type="image" title="A China Coast Guard ship (R) sailed past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño (L) during a supply mission to Sabina Shoal in disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 26, 2024." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114167295" hostid="261" sizebytes="189602"></div><h2 id="9deb4483-b117-443f-9cc5-4db4f72459bc">Keeping a balance</h2>Southeast Asian leaders have tried to keep a balance between the US and China through ASEAN, a political and economic union of 10 countries with the stated <a target="_blank" href="https://asean.org/what-we-do#asean-aims">goal</a> of "promoting regional peace and stability."ASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/asean-summit-laos-myanmar-south-china-sea-254fe0f7f8b484df5bdb05c0557fccd6">discuss</a> territorial tensions in the South China Sea. China has made expansive and legally dubious claims to nearly all of the sea, which is a major shipping route and boasts natural resources like fish and oil fields.Recent months have seen clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and ones from the Philippines, including one <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter</a> where swords and knives were brandished and a Filipino soldier reportedly lost a thumb.Speaking at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-the-asean-summit-with-the-united-states/">ASEAN summit</a>, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders that the US was concerned about China's "increasingly dangerous and unlawful" activities in the disputed waters."The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation and freedom of overflight in the Indo-Pacific," he added.The US is the only military with the size and sophistication to push back on China's forces, however, any US attempt to step up its role in the region could affect the delicate balance.Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate in international relations at the Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, said all 10 ASEAN countries have their own security interests and different views about the US' role in the region.While countries that keep close ties to the US, like Singapore, the Philippines, and to some extent Vietnam, would be "very" supportive of increased US security in the region, other countries that fear a larger US military presence in the South China Sea, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and perhaps Cambodia, would be "more vocally" opposed to it, he said.Another aspect is that China's wide claims don't directly affect Indonesia and Cambodia, meaning they have less to lose.<div type="image" title="An infographic of the disputed South China Sea on January 06, 2023." height="4138" width="5697" msid="114167294" hostid="261" sizebytes="390018"></div><h2 id="1c59d1ef-370d-4010-a9b6-a8ba1510690f">A bipartisan issue</h2>Ramping up the US security role in the South China Sea without upsetting the balance of power is "a challenge that dates back to at least the Bush administration," Marston said, referring to the administration of George W. Bush.Following 9/11, the Bush administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41311-023-00486-0#Fn5">stepped up</a> its security involvement in the region by strengthening the US military presence there and increasing diplomatic ties with key ASEAN nations.The Obama administration then pursued a policy of strategic "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific">rebalancing</a>," with the underlying <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/pafo.12115">goal</a> of preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region.The Trump administration took a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/08/from-pivot-to-defiance-american-policy-shift-in-the-south-china-sea/">harder line</a>, stepping up its freedom of navigation patrols, conducting naval exercises in the region, and at one point <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csp.navy.mil/Media/News-Admin/Article/2186392/pacific-fleet-submarines-lethal-agile-underway/">deploying</a> all of its forward-deployed nuclear attack submarines into the Western Pacific.Marston said the Biden administration has adopted elements of Obama's policy and tried to ramp up diplomatic efforts and strengthen US alliances and security partnerships.Yet, China has remained undeterred in its efforts to dominate the contested islands, and has grown more aggressive in encounters with regional claimants, notably the Philippines."It's really plagued multiple administrations," Martson said.<h2 id="5c410507-89c1-4bdb-b90b-5027be104561">A polarized region</h2>Gregory B. Poling, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Southeast Asia Program and the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told BI that the South China Sea has served as a "wedge" within ASEAN because only four out of 10 countries have a direct stake in it."Frankly, a lot of them would rather the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia just give up their rights in order to make this issue go away so they can get back to trading and investing with China," he said.According to Chatham House's Hayton, increased US intervention could further split the alliance and also potentially drag the US into a conflict with China that jeopardizes Southeast Asian countries' economies.The US might be called in to help enforce <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3738629/war-with-china-a-view-from-early-2024/">freedom of navigation</a> or defend its partners in the event of a military confrontation between China and its neighbors.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-warships-could-protect-pacific-allys-ships-from-china-admiral-2024-8">Adm. Samuel Paparo</a>, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, hinted at this last August, saying the US could send ships to escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea following clashes with China in recent months.Even without a boosted US presence, the US could be dragged into a regional confrontation via its partners.At a minimum, Hayton said a conflict would trigger disruptions to shipping, supply lines, and supply chains and hurt the region's economic growth, "even before we start to think about military actions."A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.<h2 id="aba6b3de-fedf-479e-9f6f-ff50a1a9a19a">Escalating tensions</h2>Tensions in the region have been escalating over the past few months, especially between China and the Philippines.A month after the armed encounter, China's largest coastguard vessel <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/beijings-monster-coastguard-ship-ramps-up-tensions-south-china-sea-2024-7">dropped anchor</a> in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and in August, a Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://x.com/jaytaryela/status/1828077854539874574">said</a> China had deployed 40 vessels to block the delivery of supplies to its soldiers stationed in the contested Sabina Shoal.Earlier this week, the Philippines <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/09/da-bfar-statement-on-the-recent-ccg-water-cannon-incident-in-bajo-de-masinloc/">said</a> three Chinese Coast Guard vessels and a navy ship fired water cannons toward two civilian vessels while they were on a routine resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea.<div type="image" title="A Philippine coast guard vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel during an incident in&#xa0;the South&#xa0;China&#xa0;Sea on August 19, 2024." height="1125" width="2000" msid="114167292" hostid="261" sizebytes="36066"></div>Poling described these as "the most violent months in the South China Sea since 1988," and added that the Philippines' "natural" response would be to seek help from its treaty ally, the US.Under a Mutual Defense <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20177/volume-177-I-2315-English.pdf">Treaty</a> signed in 1951, the US must come to the Philippines' aid in the event of an armed attack — something China has carefully avoided by conducting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">gray-zone operations</a>.In an interview with CBS News <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-expects-us-to-intervene-if-china-takes-rusted-warship-2024-9">60 Minutes</a> last month, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said that there were ongoing discussions about what scenarios would prompt the US to get involved.Meanwhile, according to Poling, China's official position is that everything the Philippines does is because the US made it do it."That's one of the things that makes this so hard to deescalate," he said.A war with China in the South China Sea is a prospect the US would likely want to avoid at all costs, given the ongoing conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East."But there's no world in which the US can sit on the sidelines, watch China potentially kill Filipinos in Philippine waters, and do nothing," Poling added.

Efforts by the US to counter China in the South China Sea could backfire

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell issued rare criticism of Trump's approach to trade.</li><li>Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports, which Kamala Harris calls the "Trump Sales Tax."</li></ul>Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued rare criticism on Tuesday of a key economic policy that former President Donald Trump has pledged to pursue if he's elected this November: tariffs.The top GOP leader was asked by reporters at the Capitol about Trump's threat this week to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-cuban-trump-call-200-percent-tariffs-john-deere-insane-2024-9">impose a 200% tariff</a> on any John Deere equipment that's manufactured in Mexico, along with the former president's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-us-economy-would-look-like-with-trump-biden-presidency-2024-5#tariffs-7">tariff policies</a> more broadly."I'm not a fan of tariffs. They raise the prices for American consumers," McConnell said. I'm more of a free trade kind of Republican that remembers how many jobs are created by the exports that we engage in, so I'm not a tariff fan." Trump has pledged to impose a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods if elected — and he famously engaged in a trade war with China during his previous administration.At the same time, Biden has kept many of those tariffs on Chinese goods, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5">introduced more of his own</a>. Vice President Kamala Harris has suggested that she would take a more targeted approach to tariffs than Trump, and she has likened the former president's trade proposal to a "Trump Sales Tax."Experts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-economic-outlook-recession-inflation-china-tariffs-biden-president-election-2024-3">have said</a> that Trump's proposal would likely raise prices, but the former president has disputed this, saying in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">April interview with Time</a> that he doesn't "believe that the costs will go up that much."McConnell's comments signal that Trump will likely face resistance from within his own party on trade if elected this November.Though the Kentucky senator is set to step down from his post at the end of this Congress, several Republican senators have also pushed back on Trump's tariff plans.Skeptics include Sens. John Thune of South Dakota and John Cornyn of Texas, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/08/04/gop-senators-donald-trump-tariff-trade-inflation">told Axios</a> last month that they're skeptical of across-the-board tariffs.

Mitch McConnell goes after Trump's trade policy: 'I'm not a tariff fan'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global stock markets plummeted on August 5, 2024, led by sharp declines in Asia.</li><li>The selloff was partly due to the Bank of Japan's interest-rate hike on July 31.</li></ul>Monday could go down as one of the worst days for stocks in recent history.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/markets-japan-rate-hike-yen-fx-carry-trade-stock-futures-2024-8">market rout</a> started in Asia, where stocks kicked off with sharp declines that only got worse over the day. US futures and European stock markets also got dragged into the fray. Major crypto coins, including Bitcoin and Ether, took significant hits. To be sure, markets were already jittery before Monday's rout due to fears of a US recession, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-investors-wary-high-ai-spending-markets-selloff-nasdaq-2024-7">caution over the AI hype,</a> and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. But, as Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-08-05/ig-there-are-concerns-fed-has-fallen-behind-the-curve-video">Bloomberg TV,</a> it was the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on July 31 that was "the straw that broke the camel's back.""We haven't seen a day of carnage like this, really, since the COVID selloff back in February, March 2020," Sycamore told the network.The VIX index, a key volatility indicator, was up 48% at one point on Monday, a four-year high.Here's how the massive selloff hit stock markets.<h2 id="2177269e-fb45-47e5-8a25-92378fa12c4c">Japan's Nikkei 225 revisited Black Monday</h2>Japan's stock market has been a standout over the past few years, with the benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> index posting <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/03/d82c94fba484-urgent-nikkei-stock-index-finishes-up-44-in-fy-2023.html#google_vignette">outsized gains of 44%</a> in 2023 that bettered those from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500.</a>The Nikkei continued to extend gains in 2024, first hitting a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/aisstocks-japan-nikkei-225-index-recession-economy-record-high-advantest-2024-2">record high in February</a> — the first time in 34 years — before breaching new highs.Its gains were fueled by the AI boom, as well as a weak yen that made it cheaper for foreign investors to buy Japanese equities. The weaker currency also helps Japanese exporters selling products overseas.However, the BOJ's interest-rate hike unwound trades related to the yen, sending the Nikkei way down and wiping out all of its gains this year.On August 5, the <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nikkei_225">Nikkei 225</a> index crashed by as much as 13% and closed 12.4% lower — <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Equities/Japan-stocks-dive-4-451-points-more-than-Black-Monday-in-1987">the worst </a><a target="_blank" href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Equities/Japan-stocks-dive-4-451-points-more-than-Black-Monday-in-1987">since</a> the <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/1987-black-monday-stock-market-crash-most-important-lesson-2017-10">Black Monday</a> stock market crash of October 1987, when the Japanese index lost 14.9%.The Nikkei shedding 4,451.28 points was also its largest-ever loss in terms of points.<h2 id="0263e9c8-27ee-4543-b41b-8e770fbc0528">South Korea's Kospi saw worst days since the Global Financial Crisis</h2>South Korea's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/kospi">Kospi</a> also marked a grim milestone on August 5 after closing 8.8% lower. Its losses were so huge that trading halts kicked in.The Kospi's decline was its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/skorean-shares-trigger-trading-curb-first-time-since-2020-amid-tech-rout-2024-08-05/">biggest percentage decline</a> since October 24, 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis.The losses were driven by heavy declines in the shares of semiconductor chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which tanked 10.3% and 9.9%, respectively.Like Japan, the Kospi has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/hedge-funds-turn-south-korea-next-wave-ai-2024-07-11/">boosted by the AI rush</a> as investors bet on its chipmakers.<h2 id="80173012-7e3a-40b6-9e88-5bd1ee0d54d3">Taiwan's stock market experienced its worst day ever</h2>Taiwan's benchmark Taiex stock index closed 8.4% lower in its worst day since 1967, when trading started.Taiwan is the world's semiconductor hub, where chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is based, so the Taiex has also benefited tremendously from the AI craze.The index surged nearly 70% from the start of 2023 to its record high last month, before massively crashing on August 5, marking its worst day in history.On Monday, TSMC shares closed nearly 10% lower.<h2 id="76339a18-f283-4722-8c9d-638ea19d1f84">Australia's ASX200 posts largest decline since May 2020</h2>Among the sea of red in Asia, Australia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_asx_200">ASX 200</a> index appeared less bruised.The benchmark Australian index closed 3.7% lower, but still marked its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/worst-day-for-asx-in-four-years-over-us-recession-fears/">largest one-day decline</a> since May 2020, during the thick of the COVID-19 pandemic.The ASX200's losses were led by losses in IT stocks.However, Australia is a commodity giant and the ASX's largest company by market value is miner BHP, which fell just 2.1%. Fellow mining heavyweights Fortescue and Rio Tinto fell 1.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

Asia's stock markets tanked, marking several recent records in today's massive selloff

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indonesia said it drove a Chinese coast guard ship out of its waters in the South China Sea.</li><li>It said the Chinese ship disrupted an Indonesian oil and gas company surveying the waters.</li></ul>Indonesia said it deployed two vessels and an aircraft to expel a Chinese ship from contested waters in the South China Sea.The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday.It said the Chinese ship disrupted survey work — often used to help locate oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed — by Indonesia's state-owned oil and natural gas company PT Pertamina.The interaction is another turn in a yearslong dispute over who owns the South China Sea, and gets to exploit its resources.China has staked out an aggressive claim to almost the whole sea, which its neighbors and most Western countries reject.The rival claims have been playing out in often-violent encounters between Chinese and other ships.In Monday's run-in, Indonesia said it dispatched a patrol ship dispatched to warn the Chinese ship away via radio.It said the ship insisted the waters were Chinese, prompting Indonesia to send a navy ship and an aircraft to the area."Together, the two Indonesian patrol ships carried out shadowing and succeeded in driving the CCG 5402 ship out of Indonesia's jurisdiction," it said.Shadowing means following another ship from a distance, a way of pressuring a rival vessel without direct confrontation.Indonesia's Maritime Security Agency shared <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4xRVvvgv58">aerial footage</a> of the operation on Wednesday, which it said showed the incident.Neither side immediately responded to requests for comment from Business Insider. As of early Thursday, China had yet to issue any public statement on the encounter.The incident escalates the dispute over the South China Sea, and highlights the richness of its resources.It is home to an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/regions_of_interest/South_China_Sea/south_china_sea.pdf">estimated</a> 3.6 billion barrels of oil and other liquids and 40.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.China's claims overlap with neighboring countries, including Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines.An <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">encounter in June</a> between the Philippines and China turned violent, escalating into a physical fight involving bare fists, knives, and swords.The US Navy <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-attempt-counter-china-south-china-sea-could-backfire-experts-2024-10">has made a point of operating in the South China Sea,</a> sailing in areas it regards as international waters.Malaysia and Vietnam are also pursuing oil-and-gas projects in the South China Sea, and running into Chinese opposition.The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://amti.csis.org/control-by-patrol-the-china-coast-guard-in-2023/">assessed</a> in March that the China Coast Guard in 2023 patrolled near Vietnam's Vanguard Bank oil and gas operations for 221 days and near a major cluster of Malaysian oil and gas operations for 338 days.The encounters so far have stopped short of a true naval confrontation, which risks escalating into a devastating war.A conflict in the South China Sea — a critical trade route <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2016_en.pdf">estimated</a> to carry one-third of global shipping — could result in a 10-33% loss in GDP for Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, according to a 2020 <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28048/w28048.pdf">working paper</a> by the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

Indonesia sent a Chinese ship packing, escalating a fight over oil and gas in the South China Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Marielle Descalsota has spent over $30,000 on <keyword id="19916662" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="travel" source="keywords">travel</keyword> in the last two years.</li><li><keyword id="20123716" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Timor-Leste" source="keywords">Timor-Leste</keyword> is one of the most <keyword id="20094370" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="expensive" source="keywords">expensive</keyword> countries she's traveled to.</li></ul>I graduated from college two years ago and set a goal for myself to visit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/relocate-chiang-mai-thailand-affordable-quality-of-life-best-city-2024-7">at least 50 countries</a> before I turn 30. Even while maintaining a full-time job throughout most of my travels, I've already managed to tick 20 off the list. I've traveled to six countries in Europe and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/southeast-asia-travel-mistakes-packing-weather-clothing-traditions-medicine-2024-4">14 across Asia</a>. I spent about a quarter of my salary over the past two years on travel expenses, which have added up to over $30,000. I've managed to stay on a tight <keyword id="19936553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget" source="keywords">budget</keyword> even in upscale destinations like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/budget-trip-maldives-cheap-hotel-flights-travel-guide-2024-1">the Maldives</a> — where I spent less than $1,000 on a five-day trip — and backpacked on a few dollars a day in cities like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sleeper-train-overnight-thailand-bangkok-chiang-mai-review-tickets-guide-2022-8">Bangkok</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/backpacking-things-to-know-hotels-budget-asia-malaysia-singapore-2022-5">Kuala Lumpur</a>. But on a recent trip to Timor-Leste in May — a country in the South Pacific only slightly larger in size than the state of Connecticut — I found budgeting more difficult than ever. The country comprises half of Timor Island — which it shares with Indonesia — and is known for its unspoiled waters and vibrant coral reefs. It's one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://ceoworld.biz/2024/01/15/revealed-here-are-the-least-visited-countries-in-the-world-2024/">world's least-visited countries</a>, making airfare and hotel rates more expensive than many countries in <keyword id="19915288" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asia" source="keywords">Asia</keyword>. Timor-Leste is on the United Nations' list of the world's <a target="_blank" href="https://unctad.org/topic/least-developed-countries/list">least-developed countries</a>. It's also one of the more expensive countries in the region, due to high trade costs, <a target="_blank" href="https://development.asia/policy-brief/increasing-timor-lestes-global-competitiveness#:~:text=Goods%20and%20services%20in%20Timor,developing%20countries%20in%20the%20Pacific.">according to Development Asia</a>. In addition to the centavo, which is only minted in coins, the country <a target="_blank" href="https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/timor-leste">uses the US dollar</a>, too — a stronger currency than what's used in nearby countries, including Indonesia and Australia. Here's a breakdown of what I spent in Timor-Leste. <div type="image" title="The view of a statue on an island from an airplane seat" height="2259" width="3012" msid="111973343" hostid="261"></div><h2>Cost of return plane tickets from Bali to Dili: $500</h2>Getting to Timor-Leste isn't easy. When I was traveling, Bali, Indonesia, and Darwin, Australia, were the only cities with flights to Dili, the capital, where the country's only international airport is located. Only two airlines — the Indonesian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airasia-best-airline-in-the-world-low-cost-budget-2023-7">low-cost carrier</a> Citilink and the local airline Aero Dili — fly between Bali and Dili. The flight from Bali is less than two hours long — while there are no direct flights from the US to Bali, stopovers through bigger airports like Singapore and Tokyo are often used. I booked a return ticket with Citilink about three weeks before departure for $500 — which was around $100 cheaper than Aero Dili. This included a front-row seat reservation and a 44-lb checked bag allowance. <div type="image" title="Mountains on the horizon of Timor-Leste" height="2218" width="2957" msid="111973340" hostid="261"></div><h2>Cost of hotel stay for three nights: $500</h2>Timor-Leste only has a handful of three-star hotels and no luxury accommodations. While <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=d8a8d663cf225f9f1af6c2c8b57fcbf5a32c449e75ec22631b46dca219696226&amp;postID=668750ec5c62a271edc8447d&amp;postSlug=least-visited-countries-timor-leste-flights-hotel-budget-2024-7&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hilton.com%2Fen%2Fhotels%2Fdiltshi-hilton-dili-palm-springs%2F">Hilton</a> plans to open a hotel in Dili's business district later this year, there were no international hotel chains when I visited. Many travelers stay in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/remote-ireland-island-great-blasket-hotel-job-caretaker-guest-house-2024-1">guesthouses</a> by the beach, which only have basic amenities such as fans and mosquito nets. I booked an entry-level room for three nights at Timor Plaza Hotel &amp; Apartments for around $500, including tax. While the room itself was basic — and had its fair share of critters — the hotel had a stunning view of Atauro, one of Timor Leste's two offshore islands. It was also located above a small mall, which made eating out easy. <div type="image" title="Woman riding on a scooter in Timor-Leste." height="3024" width="4032" msid="111973344" hostid="261"></div><h2>Cost of transportation: $90</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-ride-hailing-app-video-2024-6">Ride-hailing services</a> weren't available in Timor-Leste, and taxi services are limited to the city center. I was quoted $20 per hour to rent a car, and I wasn't willing to pay $200 for a day. Fortunately, I met a local guide who charged $30 per day to tour me around Dili on a scooter. I found it an inexpensive and efficient way to travel from the gorgeous white-sand beaches to the beautiful tropical mountains. <div type="image" title="A sandwich with sausage and a cup of iced Timorese coffee" height="2263" width="3017" msid="111973342" hostid="261"></div><h2>Cost of food: $180</h2>Food in Dili is surprisingly international. Despite only a handful of international food chains — including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/review-cheapest-cheeseburgers-fast-food-mcdonalds-wendys-burger-king-2024-6">Burger King</a> and Gloria Jean's Coffee — operating in Timor Leste, Western food like burgers are ubiquitous. I ate mostly local Timorese food and Indonesian fare. I had set a daily budget of around $60 for meals, drinks, and snacks for my guide and me. While a plate of nasi goreng — Indonesian fried rice — costs around $3 to $4 in Bali, I paid around $15 for the dish in Dili. At a local café, I paid $8 for a small plate of jackfruit, carrots, lettuce, and tortillas. <div type="image" title="A Timorese woman weaving cloth in a market" height="1818" width="2424" msid="111973345" hostid="261"></div><h2>Miscellaneous costs: $415</h2>Before my trip, I spent $15 on an eSIM and $20 on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/travel-insurance/best-travel-insurance-companies">travel insurance</a>. When I arrived in Timor-Leste, I had to pay $30 for the visa-on-arrival, which allowed me to stay in the country for 30 days. Souvenirs in Timor-Leste are expensive. I purchased a small handmade bag and sarong from the local Tais market — a type of weave indigenous to the country — for around $70. I snagged a handmade belt at another shop for $30. I bought several bags of Timorese coffee — the country's second-biggest export — for $50. I didn't expect to find Western makeup products in Timor-Leste, so I bought a few items when I did find them at a local grocery for $70, although at a substantial markup compared to what they cost on retailers like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-original-book-business-booming-2024-6">Amazon</a>. I didn't spend much on sightseeing as most of my time was spent swimming at the beach and exploring the tropical mountains. For activities, I spent $30 on a massage at a traditional Chinese spa and $50 on a half-day scuba diving trip at the coast. I budgeted about $50 for tips. While traveling to Timor-Leste was expensive, the stunning views were worth it. I'd do it again in a heartbeat. Correction: July 25, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the size of Timor-Leste. It's slightly larger than the state of Connecticut, not smaller.

I spent 3 nights in Asia's least visited country. It also turned out to be the most expensive.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump might have upended the veepstakes tradition when he picked JD Vance as his running mate.</li><li>Vance, who holds remarkably similar political views to Trump, isn't going to "balance the ticket."</li></ul>Former President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-luck-classified-documents-assassination-debate-2024-7">Donald Trump</a> upended the election tradition of "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-flipped-script-jd-vance-not-aimed-balancing-president-ticket-2024-7">balancing the ticket</a>" when he picked Ohio Sen. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-vice-president-jd-vance-career-facts-2024-7">JD Vance</a> as his running mate. But the MAGA pair is unlikely to disrupt the calculus for an Asia that's already preparing for the possibility of his victory in November, experts say.Vance, a former Trump critic turned MAGA stalwart, has voiced foreign policy views in lockstep with Trump. Both men <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/where-does-trump-vance-stand-on-china-tariffs-inflation-taxes-2024-7">support wide tariffs on China</a> and have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-running-mate-jd-vance-ukraine-worst-nightmare-analysis-2024-7">criticized US aid to Ukraine</a>.Yet three experts on the Asia-Pacific told Business Insider that regional leaders — having learned from Trump's shock win in 2016 and his subsequent unpredictability — are already laying the groundwork for a scenario where he wins.<h2 id="d60358f2-bcd9-4253-90a1-8c07028ce812">Asia won't be surprised by a Trump-Vance administration</h2>"It would be quite irresponsible if they didn't already countenance this, and I think, to be honest, we will not see the overreactions that we saw earlier or in parts of Europe," said <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://dr.ntu.edu.sg/cris/rp/rp00194">Dylan Loh</a>, assistant professor of public policy and international studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU).Trump previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tpp-trans-pacific-partnership-what-it-means-2017-1">reneged on deals</a> he felt were disadvantageous to the US and pressured allies like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/15/trump-asks-tokyo-quadruple-payments-us-troops-japan/">Japan</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-thaad-south-korea-2017-4">South Korea</a> to support US defense costs.But Loh believes regional stability will prevail."I think Trump's tenure has shown that fears of abandonment or ignorance of politics in Asia are overblown," he said.The most prominent US-aligned governments in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines have been hedging their bets and working carefully to make their economies and supply chains more resilient, said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://discovery.nus.edu.sg/2380-ja-ian-chong">Chong Ja Ian</a>, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore."Other Southeast Asian states seem to believe they can weather another Trump administration, perhaps by freezing on the efforts of the northeast Asian US allies and partners plus the Philippines," he said.It's not just economics. The Philippines, for example, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/09/japan-and-the-philippines-sign-landmark-defense-deal-to-counter-china-.html">inked a new defense pact with Japan</a> in July as it grapples with the threat of an increasingly belligerent China in the South China Sea. This comes as the Philippines signs maritime agreements with key NATO countries <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ipdefenseforum.com/2024/04/philippines-u-k-strengthen-ties-to-boost-maritime-security-cooperation/">like the UK</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1692751/ph-france-sign-agreement-strengthening-maritime-industry">France</a>.<h2 id="d23ca00c-37ca-4167-bbb6-cebb083b0d0f">US-China relations won't change much, whether it's Trump or Biden at the wheel</h2>Even though Trump started the US-China trade war, experts say that China won't be too bothered if he returns to the White House.This, NTU's Loh said, is because President Joe Biden hasn't really deviated from Trump's hawkish stance against the Asian giant.For one, the Biden administration has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tariffs-trade-restrictions-budget-deficit-biden-trump-stephen-roach-2024-7">kept most of Trump's China tariffs in place</a>. In fact, Biden introduced some of his own when he announced a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5">100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles</a> in May."For China, any preferences for either Trump or Biden is going to be marginal," Loh said."I think it is quite clear that regardless of whether a Democrat or a Republican is in office, the general bipartisan mood of seeing China as a threat or a strategic competitor will not abate," he added.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.rsis.edu.sg/profile/kevin-chen-xian-an/">Kevin Chen</a>, a research fellow at NTU's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told BI that China may even prefer to have Trump back in power due to the turmoil he'll bring to the US' foreign ties."Given how Mr Trump would likely alienate US allies and partners with his policies, Beijing may prefer that he retake the White House to give them more opportunities to spread their influence," Chen explained.That said, most Asia-Pacific countries will shy away from appearing to take sides or expressing relief if either candidate wins."There's a joke in Japanese diplomatic circles that the outcome of a US presidential election is like opening a Christmas present, except that they must express that 'this is exactly what I wanted' regardless of the result," Chen said.

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