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The one-hour <keyword id="23618998" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Muhurat-trading" source="keywords">muhurat trading</keyword> session, which marks <keyword id="20963892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Diwali-2024" source="keywords">Diwali 2024</keyword> and the onset of Hindu Samvat 2081 on both NSE and BSE, is set to commence at 6 pm today and will conclude at 7 pm. Generally, investors and traders make symbolic stock buys during this hour-long session, since it is believed that purchases made during this time herald wealth and prosperity for one’s investments for the year to come. If you are looking for <keyword id="19910146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-recommendations" source="keywords">stock recommendations</keyword> to add to your portfolio, here are a few value picks by SAMCO and Kotak Securities you can consider: <keyword id="19895995" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Bank">HDFC Bank</keyword> Ltd Holding period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 1,734.30 Per the firm, “The bank has maintained a robust 10-year profit CAGR of 21.74%, operating with a NIM (net interest margin) of 3.5% and a low net NPA (non-performing assets) of 0.3%. Advances and deposits have shown steady growth. Currently, the stock trades below its 10-year average price-to-book value and at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, offering a favorable risk-reward profile with a substantial downside buffer”. <keyword id="22086440" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Vindhya-Telelinks" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Vindhya Telelinks" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Vindhya Telelinks">Vindhya Telelinks</keyword> Ltd Holding Period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 1,992.55 SAMCO notes that this key cable manufacturing, which is a joint venture between Universal Cables Limited and Madhya Pradesh State Industrial Development Corporation, has shown robust growth over the last 5 years, nearly doubling revenues with a 14.3% CAGR. The company holds significant investments in Birla Cable Ltd, Birla Corporation Ltd, and Universal Cable Ltd, totaling Rs 3,618 crore—surpassing its market capitalization of Rs 2,545 crore. This solid investment base underscores Vindhya Telelinks’ strong fundamentals and financial potential. <keyword id="23763358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ramco-Industries" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Ramco Industries" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Ramco Industries">Ramco Industries</keyword> Ltd Holding Period: 1 year Last Traded Price: Rs 244.89 SAMCO observes that over the past decade, sales grew at a 7% CAGR, while the share price rose at a 14% CAGR. Known for its financial stability, Ramco Industries boasts a low debt-equity ratio of 0.07 and has consistently paid dividends since FY17, currently yielding 0.31%. The stock’s attractive price-to-book multiple of 0.5 offers a solid margin of safety, highlighting its investment appeal. <keyword id="22786675" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gravita-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Gravita India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Gravita India">Gravita India</keyword> Holding Period: 12 months Last Traded Price: Rs 2,119 Kotak explains that Gravita India is the market leader in India’s emerging recycling industry with a focus on lead recycling. Gravita India is increasing its recycling capacity by a massive 72% to 500 ktpa by FY27E. “We expect the company’s earnings per share to grow by 31.8% in FY25E &amp; 31.6% in FY26E. We also expect an upside of 15% or more on this stock over the next 12 months”, adds Kotak’s note. <keyword id="23763359" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="S-H-Kelkar" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S H Kelkar" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S H Kelkar">S H Kelkar</keyword> and Company (SHKL) Holding Period: 12 months Last Traded Price: Rs 289.90 The company is a flavors &amp; fragrances (F&amp;F) supplier and has started to make inroads into the global market. SHK is well-placed to drive double-digit revenue growth. The company is a small but emerging contender in the vast F&amp;F market, with potential for margin expansion—higher-margin geographies &amp; operating leverage—allowing for over 15% return upside in the next 12 months. Kotak Securities further notes that FY25 will likely see more broad-based growth across sectors. However, the OMCs (oil marketing companies) may likely drag down overall profits. Most sectors and stocks are quite overvalued, with the degree of overvaluation ranging from: (1) low for most large-cap consumers, IT services, and pharmaceuticals (2) medium in the investment space (3) high in the case of several low-quality companies. "As the broader market valuations are rich, opportunities arising from market correction can be used to add quality stocks (with attractive valuations) from a long-term investment perspective," explains the research firm's note. SAMCO further advises adding a little glitter to your portfolio using GoldBees and SilverBees ETFs since there are recessionary fears in the US and geopolitical tensions across the world. Even central bankers like RBI have been adding gold to their vaults like never before. At present, markets are looking to secure their return on capital rather than seeking a return on capital. "Thus all of these make a strong case to add gold and silver to the portfolio. They will give stability to your portfolio this Samvat," adds SAMCO's note.

Muhurat trading 2024: 5 stock picks you can consider this time around

The <keyword id="20018890" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-infrastructure" source="keywords">digital infrastructure</keyword> has made the <keyword id="20572901" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="loan-sanctioning" source="keywords">loan sanctioning</keyword> system adopt an online mode, but the <keyword id="21614839" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="loan-recovery" source="keywords">loan recovery</keyword> still requires a 'feet on the street' approach, says <keyword id="20506781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="swaminathan-j" source="keywords">Swaminathan J</keyword>, Deputy Governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Speaking at a media event in Mumbai, the deputy Governor of RBI noted that with the digital infrastructure at place, many <keyword id="22721545" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fintech-players" source="keywords">fintech players</keyword> are giving loans to customers with poor credit profiles, and up on default, use aggressive recovery tactics. "While loan sanctioning and disbursement have become increasingly digital, effective collection and recovery still require a 'feet on the street' and empathetic approach. Many fintech platforms operate on a business model that involves extending <keyword id="22791879" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="small-value-loans" source="keywords">small-value loans</keyword> to customers who often have a poor credit profiles" said the deputy governor. He emphasized that the business model of many fintech platforms involves offering small-value loans to customers who often have poor credit profiles. This has led to the adoption of aggressive recovery strategies, which on many occasions also crosses ethical boundaries. He also highlighted one particularly concerning practice that involves the invasion of customers' privacy, where recovery agents access the personal data and contacts of borrowers and use that as a threat practice. Swaminathan cautioned that such tactics not only infringe on individuals right to privacy, but also risk damaging the reputation of regulated lenders associated with these fintech platforms. He also highlighted RBI's regulations on outsourcing, that even though regulated financial entities delegate certain activities to third parties, they remain ultimately accountable for the actions of their outsourced agents. The deputy governor also noted that the digitisation allows banks and NBFCs to leverage data for greater insights into their customers' requirements and behaviour, which can be used for developing bespoke products apart from facilitating better risk management and compliance. He stated that the role of RBI as a regulator is to establish guardrails or a balanced framework that encourages innovation while ensuring that risks are managed prudently. The deputy governor also indicated the primary goal of RBI is to ensure the stability and integrity of the financial system and not to hinder business operations.

Loan sanctioning has gone digital, but recovery still needs a 'feet on the street' approach, says RBI Deputy Governor

The <keyword id="19987636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-government" source="keywords">Bihar government</keyword> is making serious efforts to give a fillip to <keyword id="23049947" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="small-scale-and-medium-enterprises" source="Orion">small-scale and medium enterprises</keyword> which would play a crucial role in the overall <keyword id="352701" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-development" source="Orion">economic development</keyword> of the state, a top official of the Industries department said. Around Rs 2,900 crore have been disbursed to nearly 74,540 beneficiaries under two schemes, one of which was launched only last year, for promoting Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises ( <keyword id="19910977" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="MSMEs" source="keywords">MSMEs</keyword>) in the state, the official said. <keyword id="19903647" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bihar" source="keywords">Bihar</keyword> has a strong MSME base. To promote innovation ecosystem and unlock the enormous entrepreneurial potential of the state, the Mukhya Mantri Udyami Yojana (MMUY) and <keyword id="23049946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bihar-Laghu-Udyami-Yojana" source="keywords">Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana</keyword> (BLUY) were launched in 2018 and 2023 respectively focusing on promotion of MSMEs in the state. "A total of Rs 2,697 crore was disbursed to 34,441 beneficiaries from 2018 till now under MMUY. Similarly, till date Rs 200 crore of the first instalment has been disbursed to 40,099 beneficiaries under BLUY", Secretary, Department of Industries, Bandana Preyashi told PTI. On the one hand, Bihar is getting big ticket investments for major manufacturing units and on the other hand, the state government is also enabling an ecosystem where the MSMEs can thrive on the ground level for the benefit of the rural economy, Preyashi said. The Bihar Laghu Udyami Yojana aims to provide job opportunities to at least one member of poor families whose monthly income is less than Rs 6,000 a month, she said. The state government is providing Rs 2 lakh to each beneficiary in three instalments to set up and run micro and small industrial and processing units, Preyashi said. The government's objective is promotion of MSMEs through awareness, training and handholding support, the Industries secretary said. The state government is encouraging entrepreneurs and investors through the provision of a safe and sound work environment and basic infrastructural facilities which include land, roads, electricity, and water availability, she said. The Industries secretary further said, "With new policies of the state government, Bihar is witnessing significant investment promotion activities, reinforcing its position as an emerging business and industrial hub in the country. During the Bihar Business Connect 2023, 278 companies signed MoUs, committing to investments totalling Rs 50,530 crore." the secretary said. The state government has implemented the Bihar Industrial Investment Promotion Policy (BIPP), Bihar Logistics Policy 2023, Ethanol Production Incentive Policy 2021 and Textile and Leather Policy 2022 to promote industrial growth and investment in the state. "Under these policies, stage-1 clearance was given to 481 applications, with a proposed investment amount of Rs 4,512.85 crore. A total of 175 units were given clearance for financial incentives with an investment of Rs 2,195.10 crore, an all-time high, since the inception of the state investment promotion policies," she said. In 2023-24, 255 startups were recognized in the state and a total of Rs 11.92 crore has been disbursed as seed funding to these startups. From April 2023 to January 2024, Bihar Industrial Area Development Authority (BIADA) allotted plots/sheds to 427 units having a total investment size of Rs 6,145 crore covering 492 acres of land and also creating 35,224 employment in the state, said the secretary. "Infrastructure development in industrial areas was given top priority. Funds of Rs 409.33 crore were approved under Part I and Rs 212.68 crore for construction of unity mall under special assistance to states in 2023-24. In the current financial year of 2024-25,149 units have been granted stage I clearance for a proposed investment amount in Rs 3,950.48 crore in Bihar State Investment Promotion Board", she said. At present, Bihar's proposal to establish a multi-sector Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Nawanagar and Kumarbagh has been approved by the Government of India. "Authorities concerned are also working on the establishment of Export Promotion Councils (EPCs) in Bihar that will help Bihari Exporters to expand their businesses to international markets", said the secretary. Bihar Chief Minister <keyword id="19907431" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nitish-kumar" source="keywords">Nitish Kumar</keyword> on August 3 this year laid the foundation stone for Rs 1,600 crore cement grinding unit of Ambuja Concrete North Private Limited, a subsidiary of Adani group's Ambuja Cements, in Warisaliganj block in Nawada district. This is considered the largest investment in the state by a cement industry player. "The project is expected to create 250 direct jobs and 1,000 indirect jobs on the site. The project will meet the growing infrastructure needs of Bihar. Adani Group has decided to invest additional Rs 5,500 crore in Bihar in various sectors, including cement manufacturing (in Muzaffarpur), logistics (near Patna) and projects related to agro-industry in Araria, Kishanganj and Begusarai. A total of 40,000 employment will be generated by these investments", said the statement issued by the CMO after the conclusion of the event on August 4.

Bihar government disburses Rs 2,900 crore to 74,540 beneficiaries for promoting MSMEs: Official

The <keyword id="19919399" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asian-Development-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Asian Development Bank" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Asian Development Bank">Asian Development Bank</keyword> (ADB) on Wednesday maintained India's <keyword id="20540008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth-forecast" source="keywords">GDP growth forecast</keyword> at 7 per cent for the current financial year, citing that a rebound in agriculture is expected given above-normal <keyword id="22442671" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon-projections" source="keywords">monsoon projections</keyword>. The ADB forecast comes a day after the International Monetary Fund revised upward its GDP growth projections for India to 7 per cent compared to 6.8 per cent projected in April. Last month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upward its growth forecast to 7.2 per cent, from 7 per cent estimated earlier. The <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> is on track to grow by 7 per cent in FY2024 (ending 31 March 2025) and 7.2 per cent in FY2025 (next financial year), as projected in ADO April 2024, said the July edition of the Asian Development Outlook (ADO). The Indian economy logged a growth rate of 8.2 per cent for the financial year ended March 2024, as against 7 per cent in the previous fiscal year. Services continued to expand robustly in Q4 of FY24, and the forward-looking services PMI is well above its long-term average, it said, adding, industry is also expected to grow robustly, driven by manufacturing and strong demand for construction led by housing, it said. "After muted growth in FY2023 (previous fiscal), a rebound in agriculture is expected given the above-normal monsoon projections. This is notwithstanding the slower advance of monsoon in June. A rebound in agriculture will be important to sustain growth momentum in rural areas," it said. Investment demand continues to be strong, led by public investments and bank credit is fueling robust housing demand and improving private investment demand, it said. However, it said, export growth will continue to be led by services, with merchandise exports showing relatively weaker growth. The stronger-than-expected fiscal position of the central government could provide a further boost to growth, it said. However, the report said, this must be weighed against downside risks arising from weather events and geopolitical shocks. With regard to inflation, ADO has also retained its forecast at 4.6 per cent for the current financial year and expects it to marginally decline to 4.5 per cent next fiscal. With regard to developing Asia's growth forecast, ADO said, it is revised up to 5 per cent in 2024 and maintained at 4.9 per cent in 2025. Growth projections remain broadly unchanged with respect to ADO April 2024, it said, adding, resilient domestic demand along with improved exports and manufacturing will support growth this year. The region's 2024 growth forecast has been marginally adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points due to upward revisions in the Caucasus and Central Asia along with East Asia, it said. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for the region has fallen to 2.9 per cent in 2024, largely due to downward revisions in China and the Caucasus and Central Asia, which offset a slight increase in South Asia, it said.

Monsoon projections to ensure India's GDP growth forecast remains at 7% for FY'25: Asian Development Bank

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

<ul><li>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>’s <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword> meeting is set to begin today.</li><li>The central bank will announce the outcome of the <keyword id="22684891" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MPC-meeting" source="keywords">MPC meeting</keyword> on October 9.</li><li><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> has kept the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged for the last nine consecutive meetings.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to begin its three-day monetary policy meeting on Monday and will run from October 7 to October 9. All eyes are on the outcome, as the central bank has kept the repo rate unchanged for the last nine consecutive meetings. The repo rate, currently at 6.50%, has remained steady since the RBI adopted a cautious stance to balance inflation control and economic growth. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword>, is expected to weigh key factors like inflationary trends, global economic uncertainties, and domestic growth prospects. Inflation continues to be a challenge, particularly in food and fuel prices, which saw a surge earlier this year. As per the data from the Ministry of Statistics &amp; Programme Implementation, though the All India Consumer Price inflation in August was 3.65%, which is under the RBI target band the food inflation stands at 5.65% and it remains above the RBI's medium-term target of 4%. Despite these inflationary pressures, the RBI has opted for a status quo on the repo rate, primarily to support economic recovery post-pandemic. However, there are rising concerns that external factors, like the rising global crude oil prices and tensions in West Asia, may compel the RBI to reconsider its current stance. Earlier this month the central government appointed three new members to the monetary policy committee. The MPC comprises three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the Central Government. The newly reconstituted committee consists of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India as the Chairperson, ex officio; the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, in charge of monetary policy--Member, ex officio, and one officer of the Reserve Bank of India, nominated by the Central Board -- Member, ex officio. The new external members included in the MPC are Professor Ram Singh, Director, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Saugata Bhattacharya, economist; and Dr. Nagesh Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development. Market participants and analysts are closely monitoring this meeting for any forward guidance on future rate actions. Many believe the central bank will continue its wait-and-watch approach, but a surprise rate hike cannot be entirely ruled out. On September 18, the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-Federal-Reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword> announced a steep 50 basis points interest cut in its review meeting. US Fed announced the rate cuts after holding interest rates steady for eight straight meetings. The outcome of the MPC meeting will be announced on October 9 and will set the tone for future monetary policies amid the changing global economic landscape. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will commence its three-day monetary policy meeting on Monday, October 7th, and continue until October 9th. The result of this meeting is eagerly anticipated, as the central bank has maintained a steady repo rate for the past nine consecutive meetings. The repo rate has remained at 6.50% since the RBI adopted a cautious approach to balance inflation control and economic growth. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, will consider various factors, including inflationary trends, global economic uncertainties, and domestic growth prospects. Inflation remains a challenge, particularly in food and fuel prices, which surged earlier this year. According to data from the Ministry of Statistics &amp; Programme Implementation, All India Consumer Price inflation in August was 3.65%, within the RBI's target band, however, food inflation stands at 5.65%, exceeding the RBI's medium-term target of 4%. Despite inflationary pressures, the RBI has opted to maintain the repo rate to support economic recovery post-pandemic. Nonetheless, rising concerns about external factors, such as increasing global crude oil prices due to tensions in West Asia, may prompt the RBI to reassess its current stance. Earlier this month, the central government appointed three new members to the monetary policy committee. The MPC consists of three members from the RBI and three external members appointed by the Central Government. It is worth noting that on September 18, the US Federal Reserve announced a substantial 50 basis points interest rate cut in its review meeting, reversing its previous stance of holding rates steady for eight consecutive meetings. With inputs from ANI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/september-auto-sales-automakers-report-a-decline-mahindra-and-mahindra-overtakes-tata-motors/articleshow/113925972.cms">September Auto sales – Automakers report a decline, Mahindra and Mahindra overtakes Tata Motors</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/ola-electric-continues-to-lose-market-share-as-bajaj-auto-and-tvs-motor-gain/articleshow/113900252.cms">Ola Electric continues to lose market share as Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor gain</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/airtel-is-using-ai-powered-technology-to-block-spam-calls-and-messages/articleshow/113691942.cms">Airtel is using AI-powered technology to block spam calls and messages</a>

RBI's monetary policy committee meeting begins today, announcement on October 9

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

India’s diamond industry is grappling with a severe downturn as both imports and exports have significantly declined over the past three years, triggering defaults, <keyword id="23043782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="factory-closures" source="keywords">factory closures</keyword>, and widespread <keyword id="20013745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-losses" source="keywords">job losses</keyword>, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (<keyword id="19962754" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GTRI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="GTRI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="GTRI">GTRI</keyword>). The think tank highlighted that the sector is struggling with unsold <keyword id="20237406" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rough-diamonds" source="keywords">rough diamonds</keyword> and increasing competition from lab-grown alternatives. Ajay Srivastava, Founder of GTRI, pointed out that the downturn in India’s diamond industry has had devastating effects. "This has led to defaults, factory closures, and widespread job losses. Tragically, more than 60 individuals from Gujarat’s diamond sector have taken their own lives, highlighting the intense financial and emotional stress," Srivastava said. He emphasised the urgent need for intervention to address these issues and ensure the survival of the sector. <h2>Declining imports and exports</h2>Data from GTRI paints a grim picture of the industry. Imports of rough diamonds have dropped by 24.5%, from USD 18.5 billion in 2021-22 to USD 14 billion in 2023-24, reflecting weakened global demand and fewer orders for diamond processing. After accounting for re-exported rough diamonds, net imports saw a 25.3% decrease, signalling reduced interest in processing diamonds in India. The situation is even worse on the export front. Exports of cut and polished diamonds fell by 34.6%, from USD 24.4 billion in FY 2022 to USD 13.1 billion in FY 2024. Net exports experienced an even sharper decline, dropping by 45.3% from USD 15.9 billion to USD 8.7 billion, indicating a weak global market and rising inventories of unsold diamonds. <h2>Rising inventories and market competition</h2>The report also highlighted that the percentage of unsold diamonds returned to India increased from 35% to 45.6% during this period. Additionally, the gap between net rough diamond imports and net exports of cut and polished diamonds widened from USD 1.6 billion in FY 2022 to USD 4.4 billion in FY 2024, signifying a growing stockpile of unsold inventory and insufficient export demand. Several factors contribute to this crisis. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions — particularly in key markets like the US, China, and Europe — have led to decreased spending on luxury items such as diamonds. Fluctuating global diamond prices have added to this uncertainty, causing buyers to hesitate in purchasing rough diamonds. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113445065" title="&amp;#39;The pressure became too much for her&amp;#39;: Mother blames &amp;#39;work stress&amp;#39; for 26-year-old EY employee&amp;#39;s death" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global diamond supply chain, with sanctions on Russia, a major producer of rough diamonds, further complicating trade. This slowdown has impacted the global market, stalling the flow of diamonds and affecting India’s processing sector. Another challenge facing the industry is the shift in consumer preferences toward <keyword id="20662742" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lab-grown-diamonds" source="keywords">lab-grown diamonds</keyword>, which are seen as more affordable, ethical, and sustainable. This shift is particularly evident in markets where customers are becoming more conscious of the environmental and ethical implications of their purchases. <h2>Internal regulatory and operational hurdles</h2>Internally, the Indian diamond sector is facing a host of challenges. Many polishing units are burdened with unsold inventories of polished diamonds, discouraging them from importing new rough diamonds. Rising operational costs, including labour, energy, and materials, have also made it difficult for many polishing units to remain profitable. These factors have led to the closure of many shops and significant layoffs, particularly in Surat, the world’s largest hub for diamond cutting and polishing. The sector's heavy reliance on financing has also become a problem. Tighter credit conditions and reduced lending from banks have made it increasingly difficult for businesses to purchase rough diamonds, further stalling production. Additionally, a significant number of cut and polished diamonds exported from India are being returned due to quality issues, overstocking, and price fluctuations, creating costly delays and adding to the strain on exporters. <h2>Dubai's rising influence</h2>An interesting development highlighted by GTRI is the increasing share of rough diamond imports from Dubai, which does not produce diamonds itself. Instead, Dubai imports diamonds from countries like Botswana, Angola, South Africa, and Russia and re-exports them to India. Dubai’s share in India’s rough diamond imports surged from 36.3% in FY 2020 to 60.8% in FY 2024, further rising to 64.5% in April-June 2024. In contrast, Belgium’s share of these imports fell from 37.9% in FY 2020 to 17.6% in FY 2024. One major reason for Dubai's increasing role is India’s high corporate tax regime, which pushes foreign suppliers of rough diamonds to re-export their diamonds to Dubai before sending them to India. This has rendered India’s Special Notified Zones (SNZs) in Mumbai and Surat largely ineffective. <h2>Revitalising the sector</h2>To help revitalise the struggling sector, GTRI has proposed several measures. These include extending export credit terms, exempting foreign rough diamond sellers from corporate taxes in India, regulating the lab-grown diamond industry, and reconsidering the zero-tariff import of cut and polished diamonds from Dubai under the India-UAE trade agreement. The think tank also suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extend the export credit period for cut and polished diamond exporters from six months to 12 months, as buyers are increasingly demanding longer credit terms. India’s strong foreign exchange reserves make this feasible. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113449316" title="Small businesses generated 35 million job applications till Aug 2024, 14 million were from women: Report" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>The Indian diamond industry, which consists of over 7,000 companies — many of them small or medium enterprises — provides direct employment to about 1.3 million workers, with Surat alone employing nearly 8,00,000 people. The industry is also crucial for millions of indirect jobs in sectors like logistics, transport, and retail. With the sector being such a vital part of India’s economy, immediate and coordinated efforts are needed to address its current challenges and ensure its long-term viability. (With inputs from PTI)

India's diamond sector faces major crisis amid plummeting imports, exports, and massive job losses

Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

A sixth-grade social science textbook that I read described India as a piece of fabric, with countless threads coloured in a myriad of majestic shades, woven together. This metaphor holds exceptionally well when put into the context of our <keyword id="22706215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="handloom-industry" source="keywords">handloom industry</keyword>. India has a rich history of handlooms and weaving cultures. The culture of handlooms is so intricately woven into Indian culture, that there are whole towns dedicated to the same: <keyword id="248532" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chanderi" source="Orion">Chanderi</keyword> in Madhya Pradesh to Pochampally in Telangana and a dozen more! Unfortunately, the handloom industry in India is dying. The struggle is multi-faceted, ranging from a declining workforce to fierce competition from <keyword id="20496028" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="power-looms" source="keywords">power looms</keyword>. Hence, five years ago, August 7 was proclaimed <keyword id="22677698" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="National-Handloom-Day" source="keywords">National Handloom Day</keyword> in response to this crisis and to heighten public awareness. This date holds special historical significance, commemorating the initiation of the Swadeshi Movement in 1905—a pivotal act of defiance against British colonial rule. <h2>When did this industry come into existence?</h2>According to archaeological findings, the origins of handloom in the Indian subcontinent may be traced back to the Indus Valley Civilization. The Mughal Empire was known to support and patronise <keyword id="20258864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="weavers" source="keywords">weavers</keyword>. The support from the royal patrons resulted in the invention of new textiles such as ‘Mulmul’ and ‘Banarasi Brocade’ among others. This era witnessed a heightened worldwide demand for Indian textiles. In the 17th century, India produced 25% of the world’s textiles, with Bengal accounting for more than 50% of textiles and 80% of silks imported by the Dutch from Asia. <h2>What led to the decline of the <keyword id="19934660" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-handloom" source="keywords">Indian handloom</keyword>?</h2>The East India Company's entry fuelled the industry's initial decline, which started in the 1830s. The weavers were obliged to sell only to the British, and that too at exceedingly cheap prices, virtually putting them out of business. On the other hand, Indian cloth was taxed excessively to promote machine-made British clothing. The Industrial Revolution in Britain strengthened their indigenous textile industry, giving rise to new markets for cheaper textiles. In India, the collapse of the Mughal aristocracies meant no access to royal patronage. As a result, textiles like Khadi and muslin had little demand in the market. Circling back to the present, the industry is facing both similar and new challenges. Fabrics made on power looms are cheaper and faster to produce, in comparison to handloom fabrics. The industry is largely unorganised, and the wages are shockingly low. 67% of <keyword id="22706216" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="handloom-workers" source="keywords">handloom workers</keyword> are earning less than the minimum wage every month. Faced with economic challenges, the older artisans are thus forced to encourage the newer generation to choose an alternative career path. This migration of the workforce from a traditional sector is evident from the fall in the number of weavers less than 35 years of age- from 26.13 lakh in 2009-10 to 16.07 lakh in 2019-20. The majority of weavers do not have access to banking facilities, let alone institutional credit. Furthermore, if one manages to accumulate credit, there is a mismatch between the supply and demand forces due to the lack of awareness about handwoven textiles in the current generation. <h2>Initiatives for revival</h2>The cultural significance of the Indian handloom isn’t just limited to its beauty and extravagance, but it extends to our independence struggle as well. The Swadeshi movement immortalised the charkha and advocated for the use of indigenous goods. Following independence, the Indian government took many measures to revive the handloom industry. In 1953, India’s Parliament approved the Khadi and Other Handloom Industries Development Act. In 1955, the All India Handloom Fabrics Marketing Cooperative Society was formed to promote the sale of fabrics produced by handloom cooperatives across India. The National Handloom Development Programme (NHDP) aimed to provide financial assistance for marketing and production. The Handloom Weavers’ Comprehensive Welfare Scheme offers health and life insurance to weavers, to ensure social security. The organisation commenced a fortnight-long exhibition, “VIRAASAT” dedicated to celebrating the 10th National Handloom Day began at Handloom Haat in Janpath, New Delhi on Saturday, 3rd August 2024, and will conclude on 16th August 2024. The Handloom Mark scheme was introduced to authenticate handloom products, thus enabling weavers to gain better market access and ensuring that consumers get genuine products. Moreover, the India Trade Portal also mentions that the GOI plans to provide financial assistance of Rs. 30 crore to at least 10,000 handlooms. Various state governments also regularly conduct handloom expos and fairs, providing platforms for weavers to showcase and sell their products directly to consumers. <h2>Contemporary Brands and their love for Indian handloom</h2>Modern, popular designers such as <keyword id="8264" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sabyasachi" source="Orion">Sabyasachi</keyword> and <keyword id="21493890" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ritu-kumar" source="keywords">Ritu Kumar</keyword> are known to work closely with weavers and have been doing their part by bringing worldwide attention to the handloom industries. Recently, <keyword id="1472101" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ajrakh" source="Orion">Ajrakh</keyword> was brought into the limelight when Alia Bhatt wore a custom Abu Jani Sandeep Khosla Ajrakh saree to Joy Awards in Riyadh. However, it’s not just the fashion moguls who are working towards the revival of this industry. Contemporary indie brands are partnering with local weavers, and creating awareness about their work. The emergence of such indie brands and their association with local artisans is beneficial for both entities. For instance, Joskai Studio derives its name from ‘Joskai’, a woven piece of cloth worn as a part of the traditional costume of the Tiwa community of Assam. They work with artisans in northeast India, specifically from the weaving village of Saualkuchi in Assam. Rouka by Sreejith Jeevan is a Kerala-based brand that works strictly with weavers from Kerala, specifically Chendamangalam and Kuthampally. <h2>Employment and Exports</h2>According to the Indian Trade Portal, the Indian handloom sector is the country’s second-largest employer after agriculture in rural areas. The Handloom Census 2019-20 mentions that the industry employs about 35,22,512 workers across the country, with women forming 77.29% of the workforce. India is the second largest exporter of handloom products in the world, with exports valued at $ 353.9 million in 2017- 18, as per EXIM bank's working papers. The major handloom export centres are Karur, Panipat, Varanasi and Kannur where handloom products like bed linen, table linen, toilet linen, floor coverings, and embroidered textile materials and curtains etc. are produced for export markets. During April 2021-February 2022, India exported handloom products worth 1693 crore, as per Indian Trade Portal. Indian silk scarves also form a sizable chunk of total handloom exports, in addition to home textiles like carpets, rugs and mats, which constitute over 13.6% of India’s total handloom exports. <h2>The Path Forward</h2>The mere existence of organisations and allocation of funds isn’t enough to sustain the legacy of India’s rich handloom industry. Big corporations working with local weavers ensure employment but don't protect them from exploitation and meagre wages, leaving them vulnerable. The people in power ought to come up with strategies that ensure the trickle-down effect of the schemes and funds. The new generation of buyers has a greater purchasing power than the one before them. Marketing focused on bringing Indian handloom practices into the limelight can do wonders in this case.

Fabric of a nation: Sustaining India's handloom legacy in modern times

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

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