<p><div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image">REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar </p><p class="caption">A Hindu devotee washes herself and offers prayers after performing rituals on the banks of Bagmati River, while celebrating Kuse Aunse (Father's Day) at Gokarna Temple in Kathmandu, September 5, 2013.</p></div></div>Deutsche Bank global strategist <span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Sanjeev Sanyal wrote a thought-provoking note today about the future of global <keyword id="48933" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="population">population</keyword>.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">"The world i</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">s approaching a major turning point in its demographic trajectory and we think that the shift is likely to be sooner and sharper than mainstream projections suggest," Sanyal writes. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">In case you've missed it, the global <keyword id="6414006" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="fertility">fertility</keyword> rate has been steadily dropping since 1950. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Sanyal points clients to the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of live births per women over her lifetime. For most developed countries, the TFR is well below the so-called "replacement rate" of 2.1-2.3. Even in emerging markets like Brazil, the TFR has dropped from 6.2 in the early 1950s to below replacement at 1.8, Sanyal notes.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">And in China, the world's most populous country, the TFR is overstated due to a "skewed gender ratio." As Sanyal concludes, "In our view, global fertility will fall to the replacement rate in less than fifteen years."</span></p>
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<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>We feel that the world's overall fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In other words, reproductively speaking, our species will no longer be expanding - a major turning point in history. <strong>Of course, </strong></span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><strong>overall world population will still expand for a couple more decades due to momentum in the age structure and rising longevity, but this lagged effect will ultimately ease off unless we discover the elixir of immortality. Thus, we forecast that world population will peak around 2055 at 8.7bn and will then decline to 8.0bn by 2100.</strong> In other words, our forecasts suggest that world population will peak at least half a century sooner than the UN expects and that by 2100, and that level will be 2.8bn below the UN's prediction. This is obviously a radically different view of the world. </span></p>
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<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">"W</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">e want merely want to alert readers to the strong likelihood that the future trajectory of world population could be an order of magnitude below what conventional projections suggest," Sanyal tells clients.</span></p>

DEUTSCHE BANK: World Population Will Peak In 2055 Unless We Discover The 'Elixir Of Immortality'

<p>In a new report, Deutsche Bank Global Strategist Sanjeev Sanyal presents a bunch of charts that put the scope and scale of the global financial markets into perpective.</p>
<p>Here's a breakdown of the $209 trillion worth of global financial securities based on asset class:</p>
<p><div class="image-container click-to-enlarge" style="width:618px"><div class="image"><a title_source="Deutsche Bank" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/511d34106bb3f7990a000006-960/screen%20shot%202013-02-14%20at%201.48.42%20pm.png"><span class="click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a></div><p class="source"><a href="http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/9369-B2EA/37781274/DB_RandomWalk_2013-02-13_0900b8c08653e545.pdf">Deutsche Bank</a></p></div></p>
<p>Here's the same data, but expressed as a percentage of world GDP:</p>
<p><div class="image-container click-to-enlarge" style="width:620px"><div class="image"><a title_source="Deutsche Bank" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/511d3ccaeab8ea8d5c000010-960/screen%20shot%202013-02-14%20at%202.36.07%20pm.png"><span class="click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a></div><p class="source">Deutsche Bank</p></div></p>
<p><br />Keep in mind, these are estimates that come from various sources and that there may be some double counting. </p>
<p>"We have made every attempt to iron out inconsistencies where possible but problems with definitions and double-counting remain," writes Sanyal. "Thus, the following numbers should not be treated as gospel truth but as an attempt to grasp the scales of magnitude of the world’s financial markets."</p>

The $209 Trillion Global Financial Market Presented In Two Charts

<p><div class="image-container float_right"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image">REUTERS</p></div></div>The year 2020 will be a seminal one for Japan, with the country's capital home to the 31st Summer Olympiad and adult diapers <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/10180069/Adult-diapers-to-outsell-baby-nappies-by-end-of-decade-in-Japan.html">set to outsell its baby contemporaries</a>.</p>
<p>The world is getting older, developed countries especially. Even in emerging markets like Brazil, the total fertility rate has dropped from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-population-will-peak-in-2055-2013-9">6.2 live births per women to 1.8</a>, below the so-called "replacement rate."</p>
<p>Deutsche Bank global strategist Sanjeev Sanyal recently forecasted that world <keyword id="48933" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="population">population</keyword> <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-population-will-peak-in-2055-2013-9">will peak around the year 2055</a> at 8.7 billion before declining to 8 billion by 2100.</p>
<p>Now, thanks to coder <a href="http://multitasked.net/about.html">Martin De Wulf</a> and UN data, we can really visualize these startling changes. De Wulf arranged population figures to make a set of familiar aging visualizations called <a href="http://populationpyramid.net/">population pyramids</a>.</p>
<p>We chose 15 countries and show you the transition from 2000 to 2100 in 10-year intervals.</p>
<p><strong>France</strong><strong>'s</strong> <strong>population will double between 1950 and 2100</strong>:</p>
<p></p>
<p><strong>Brazil's population will peak in 2040, at 224 million</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Brazil/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Over 2/3rds of Burkina Faso's population was younger than 30 in 2010. By 2100, it will be 45%</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Burkina+Faso/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>China's population will fall below the 1 billion mark around 2090</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/China+Hong+Kong+SAR/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>India's population will peak in 2060 at 1.7 billion</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/India/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Germany's population of over 80 million is already on the decline, and will hit 70.3 million in 2100</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Germany/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>The U.S. will have a population of 478 million in 2100</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/United+States+of+America/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>In 2020, 20% of Japan will be 70 or older</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Japan/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Kenya's population will only continue to grow, reaching 168 million by 2100. It was 30 million in 2000</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Kenya/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Argentina's population will peak in 2065 at 51.3 million</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Argentina/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Egypt has a huge youth population right now</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Egypt/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Qatar's population is currently skewed to the male gender, making this pyramid the strangest looking</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Qatar/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>South Africa will reach its population peak in 2065 at 57.1 million</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/South+Africa/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Russia's population will slowly decline and hit 111 million in 2100</strong>:</p>
<p><div class="image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/Russian+Federation/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></div></p>
<p>The <strong>UK's</strong> population will grow to 75 million by 2100:</p>
<p><div class="image-container" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><p class="source on-image"><a href="http://populationpyramid.net/United+Kingdom/2100/">Population Pyramid</a></p></div></div></p>

15 GIFs That Show How The World's Population Will Be Totally Different In The Year 2100

<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>Narendra Modi, India's Prime Minister, is nothing if not ambitious.</span></p>
<p>The Hindu nationalist leader, elected in a landslide earlier this year, is planning to increase the country's manufacturing share of GDP from 15% to 25%.</p>
<p>It's an enormous task. </p>
<p>This week Modi has already celebrated <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/things-that-cost-more-than-indias-mars-mission-2014-9">India's successful and astonishingly cheap mission to Mars</a>, b<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">ut the coming task will be harder.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Modi's basic goal is a Chinese-style expansion, led by the manufacturing sector. There are a lot of factors in India's favour, and some major challenges. </span></p>
<p>Here's eight charts showing how he plans to do it and what's standing in his way:</p>
<p><strong>There's a lot of room for improvement already. </strong>India's development over the last decade and a half has been predominated by growth in services, as the agricultural proportion of the economy shrank. Industry, which includes manufacturing, actually makes up a smaller proportion of the economy now than it did at the turn of the century. A breakdown here from Sanjeev Sanyal at and his team at Deutsche Bank.</p>
<p><strong><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>The country has extremely favourable demographics.</strong> India has a very young population - just shy of 30% are under 14. Since today's kids are tomorrow's employers and taxpayers, that's a big positive for the country. In comparison, China hasn't had such a high proportion since the early 1990s. Beijing's one-child policy and the country's rapid development mean China now actually has worse young-age demographics than the US. </p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>India's got a lot of room to catch up with other Asian economies. </strong>A combination of rising population and less impressive growth means Indian GDP per capita is now significantly lower than Indonesia's, and even further below China's. That's bad for India now, but it does mean that there's significant room to catch up, and potential for rapid growth.<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"> </span></p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>The rupee is weak by historical standards.</strong> That's a positive thing for manufactured exports, because it makes Indian products relatively cheap for foreigners to buy. Deutsche Bank's India economists offered an explanation in a major report earlier this month: "i<span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">n the East Asian model, the </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">currency can be an important tool rather than a passive exchange rate that </span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">drifts towards 'fair value'. Recall how both Japan and China accumulated very l</span><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">arge reserves and held down their currencies over long periods of time." Here's the rupee vs. the US dollar:<br /></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div><strong>Low labour costs add to India's massive export potential.</strong> Of the top 25 exporter economies, India is the second least expensive after Indonesia, according to Deutsche Bank. That's also going to give companies a serious advantage in selling manufactured goods round the world. </span></p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>A lot of stalled projects means a lot of room to improve. </strong>Modi is extremely preoccupied with reforming India's energy sector, and with good reason. Electricity and manufacturing make up more than half of the country's stalled projects. When industrial projects seize up, it's often due to the country's unreliable energy supply. That's a weakness, but Societe Generale research from Patrick Legland and Suman Guliani suggests an improvement "create a cascade effect leading to high growth and boosting investor confidence."</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div></p>
<p><strong>Indonesia isn't going to grow as quickly. </strong>That's according to a note from Morgan Stanley's Singapore office: "<span class="il">India</span><span> is likely to show cyclical recovery in economic growth and margins before it begins to accelerate its pace of reform momentum, whereas </span><span class="il">Indonesia</span><span> will have to increase the pace of reform momentum to lift its growth potential from the current levels." The economists add that Indonesia is most exposed to rising US rates. If competitor nations are held back, that's probably to India's benefit.</span></p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div></span><strong>The only way is up for investment. </strong>India's transport and energy infrastructure systems are in particular need of investment - that's partly what's stalling so much economic activity. The government is planning to more than double the capacity of India's major ports by 2020, and is now allowing foreign direct investment in the country's stretched railways network. </p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div><br /></span></p>

You Searched For "Sanjeev Sanyal" and got 4 results

DEUTSCHE BANK: World Population Will Peak In 2055 Unless We Discover The 'Elixir Of Immortality'

Steven Perlberg

The $209 Trillion Global Financial Market Presented In Two Charts

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15 GIFs That Show How The World's Population Will Be Totally Different In The Year 2100

William Wei,Steven Perlberg

8 Charts That Show How India's Prime Minister Plans To Copy China's Growth Boom

Mike Bird