The death of <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/islamic-state" class="link-text">Islamic State</a>  </span>(Isis) leader <keyword id="2321866" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi">Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi</keyword> has been hailed by US President <keyword id="6354484" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump">Donald Trump</keyword>, but the terror group’s ideology lives on in <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia" class="link-text">Southeast Asia</a> </span>, where the region’s security agencies are bracing for <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/islamic-militancy-0" class="link-text">possible retaliatory attacks</a>  </span>. <br /><br />Authorities in Indonesia and <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/malaysia" class="link-text">Malaysia</a> </span>are on the alert, while a terrorism expert says there is likely to be an influx of Isis loyalists into the Philippines. <br /><br />Said Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay, head of the Royal alaysian Police’s Special Branch counterterrorism division: “[Baghdadi’s] death will not have any impact on Malaysia … as all terror attack plans in Malaysia came from lone wolves and self-radicalised [individuals] who were influenced by the <keyword id="8265420" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Salafi-jihadism">Salafi jihadism</keyword> ideology of Isis.<br /><br />“As long as the Isis ideology is not eliminated, as long as other groups who adhere to the Salafi jihadi ideology are not eliminated, the threat of terror will remain,” he said, pointing to how the al-Qaeda terror group continues to exist after the 2011 death of founder <keyword id="41240" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Osama-bin-Laden">Osama bin Laden</keyword>.<br /><br />Salafi jihadism is a political and religious ideology based on the Salafi movement of returning to what its adherents believe is a “true” version of Islam.<br /><br />According to a senior official of Densus 88, <span class="text"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/topics/indonesia" class="link-text">Indonesia</a> </span>’s police counterterrorism squad, Isis’ ideology “remains the fundamental basis of its struggle”, and has spread throughout the country via books and social media to the point it is difficult to stop its influence.<br /><br /><img src="https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/d8/images/methode/2019/10/29/1b46dd9a-f982-11e9-acf9-cafedce87d15_1320x770_132742.JPG" class="wrapper__img preview-img-item img--landscape" /><br />Indonesian elite anti-terror police unit Densus 88 during an exercise in Jakarta. Photo: AFP<br /><br />The official said Isis’ new leader would determine whether its threat would weaken, adding that Indonesia is always on the alert for terror attacks.<br /><br />However, Sofyan Tsauri, a former member of al-Qaeda Southeast Asia, believes Baghdadi’s death is a huge blow to the morale of Isis globally, despite the group “not being built on a figure but on an ideology”.<br /><br />“It could either weaken the group or trigger revenge attacks,” he said.<br /><br />Tsauri said Isis is still popular with Indonesians suffering from economic hardships and discrimination, as they view the group as a solution to their struggles, while some from the country’s middle class are drawn to it as they believe in “the <keyword id="8269738" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="Islamic-eschatology">Islamic eschatology</keyword> of the end of the world taking place in Syria”.<br /><br />There is also likely to be an influx of Isis loyalists into the Philippines, the only place in Southeast Asia where pro-Isis cells and groups can physically control territory, or gain military experience.“Isis leadership directed Southeast Asian militants to travel [to the Philippines],” said Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington. “With Baghdadi’s death … more and more militants will not even consider travelling to <keyword id="6355112" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Iraq">Iraq</keyword> and Syria, so Mindanao will be the draw for them.”<br /><br />Mindanao, an island in the archipelagic nation’s south, is a hotbed of terror activities where Isis affiliates in 2017 occupied Marawi City for five months, before government troops took back control that October. More than 1,100 lives were lost in the fighting, including civilians, in Isis’ largest attack in Southeast Asia.<br /><br /><iframe frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FGBPTy7yVYY?autoplay=0&amp;rel=0&amp;embed_config=%7B%22relatedChannels%22%3A%5B%22UC4SUWizzKc1tptprBkWjX2Q%22%5D%2C%22adsConfig%22%3A%7B%22adTagParameters%22%3A%7B%22iu%22%3A%22%2F8134%2Fscmp%2Fweb%2Fthisweekinasia_politics%2Farticle%2Finstream1%22%2C%22cust_params%22%3A%7B%22scnid%22%3A%223035239%22%2C%22sctid%22%3A%22321144%22%2C%22scsid%22%3A%5B%22323045%22%2C%22323046%22%5D%7D%7D%7D%7D&amp;enablejsapi=1&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.scmp.com&amp;widgetid=1"></iframe><br />Responding to the news, Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Baghdadi’s death was “an important development in the ongoing global fight against terrorism, which remains a serious threat across the world including Singapore”.<br /><br />Meanwhile, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesman Brigadier-General Edgard Arevalo on Monday said AFP troops “remain on high alert to thwart possible attempts to ride on this development”.<br /><br />“The AFP will continue with our vigorous efforts to prevent or counter terrorist extremists who continue to threaten our country,” Arevalo said.<br /><br />He urged the public to report any suspicious persons or activities to authorities, adding that “vigilance will surely help security forces in our campaign to deny the Isis foothold in our country”.<br /><br />Abuza from the National War College, who specialises in terrorism and insurgencies in Southeast Asia, said Baghdadi’s death will not make a difference operationally for terror cells in the region.<br /><br />“My guess is that Southeast Asian cells that pledged allegiance to Isis are going to keep on doing what they are doing, irrespective of events on the ground in Syria. Pro-Isis cells in Indonesia for the past two to three years have [mainly targeted] police – and more recently politicians,” he said.<br /><br />According to Abuza, there is no centralised command and control for the Islamic State of East Asia, Isis’ regional offshoot, and most terror groups in Southeast Asia remain fairly autonomous. There has also been little in the way of resources flowing into the region from what is left of Isis in Syria and Iraq.<br /><br />“If Isis really peters out, then you will see a swing in support back to al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah, [its Southeast Asian branch, responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings]. That will be much easier to do without Baghdadi in the picture,” he said.<br /><br />“In Southeast Asia, the groups are much more fluid. Individuals swing between these groups. In the Middle East and South Asia they are the most bitter rivals.”<br />

Baghdadi’s dead but Islamic State’s ideology lives on in Southeast Asia

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Houthis shared a video of a claimed sea drone strike on a crude oil tanker in the Red Sea.</li><li>A spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces said the vessel had violated its entry ban.</li></ul><p>Yemen's Houthi rebel group shared a video of what it claimed was one of its sea drones striking a crude oil tanker in the Red Sea.</p><p>In an X <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ameenhayan/status/1813251687261610198">post</a> on Tuesday, Ameen Hayyan, the director of the Yemeni Armed Forces Spokesperson's Office, said it had targeted the Chios Lion on Monday.</p><p>The Yemeni Military Media, or MMY, also published the video on its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.mmy.ye/320993/">website</a>, saying that it showed the MT Chios Lion being targeted by a drone.</p><p>Hayyan said the vessel was struck because the company that owns it violated its decision to ban entry into the "ports of occupied Palestine."</p><p>Footage of the alleged sea drone attack shows a blurred vessel approaching the front of the Chios Lion and exploding on impact.</p><p>US Central Command, or CENTCOM, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3839578/july-15-us-central-command-update/">reported</a> on the attack on Monday, saying the Houthis attacked the Liberian-flagged, Marshall Islands-owned, and Greek-operated crude oil tanker with an unmanned surface vehicle in the Red Sea, causing damage to the vessel.</p><p>It said the Houthis also launched multiple attacks on the MT Bentley I, a Panama-flagged, Israel-owned, Monaco-operated tanker vessel, using one USV, two small boats, and an anti-ship ballistic missile.</p><p>It said no damage or injuries were reported related to that vessel.</p><p>The Houthis have used naval drones in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-getting-smarter-red-sea-attacks-ships-paying-the-price-2024-6">string of recent attacks</a> on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.</p><p>The Houthis have characterized their campaign as a response to the Israel-Hamas war, but they are also attempting to position themselves as a big player in Iran's proxy network.</p><p>The Iranian-backed group scored its first hit with a naval drone in June, striking the M/V Tutor, a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, CENTCOM <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-score-first-hit-red-sea-ship-drone-boat-2024-6">reported</a> at the time.</p><p>Since then, it has ramped up its attacks, deploying one or more sea drones <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3833365/july-9-us-central-command-update/">almost</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3834897/july-10-us-central-command-update/">every</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3836291/july-11-us-central-command-update/">day</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3837367/july-12-us-central-command-update/">last</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3838037/july-14-central-command-update/">week</a>. CENTCOM said its forces destroyed all of those drones.</p><p>Between October and April, the Houthis carried out at least 53 attacks on commercial vessels, the US Department of Transportation and Maritime Administration <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.maritime.dot.gov/msci/2024-006-southern-red-sea-bab-el-mandeb-strait-gulf-aden-indian-ocean-somali-basin-arabian-sea">reported</a> in April.</p><p>And between December and March, Houthi attacks damaged at least 19 commercial ships, according to a June 13 <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/YEM_Houthi-Attacks-Pressuring-International-Trade.pdf"><u>report</u></a> published by the Defense Intelligence Agency.</p><p>Experts told BI last month that the spike in successful attacks was proof that the Houthis were picking up lessons from their monthslong campaign of attacks on maritime lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and that Iran, their primary military and financial backer, was still supporting them.</p><p>"Every single Houthi attack, the Houthis are probably learning something about what works and what doesn't," Brian Carter, the Salafi-Jihadism team lead and an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, told BI.</p><p>"If you think about how a military organization operates, they're definitely taking away lessons from the different strike packages that they're using," he added.</p><p>Following the attacks on Monday, Yahya Sare'e, a spokesperson for the Yemeni Armed Forces, said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/ameenhayan/status/1812943412829777979">statement</a> that the operations will not stop "unless the aggression is stopped and the siege on the Palestinian people is lifted in Gaza."</p>

Houthis claim video shows one of its sea drones striking an oil tanker in the Red Sea

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shipping lanes off Yemen have seen a spike in successful Houthi attacks lately.</li><li>They've hit several commercial ships in recent weeks and even sank one of them.</li></ul><p>The Houthis have scored a string of successful hits in recent weeks on commercial vessels — even sinking one of them — and demonstrated their ability to effectively strike targets with drone boats, signaling that they're getting smarter with their attacks.</p><p>Experts say these highly destructive achievements show that the Houthis are learning from their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-learning-battles-houthi-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles-commanders-2024-2">many months of regular attacks </a>on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and continue to receive help from Iran, their main supplier of military and financial assistance.</p><p>"They're learning, and they're getting more support," Archer Macy, a retired US Navy admiral, told Business Insider.</p><h2 id="aa8e9c53-6b28-48a5-8151-fdd712660e73">'A useful disguise' for the Houthis</h2><p>Between December and March, Houthi attacks damaged at least 19 commercial ships, according to a June 13 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Images/News/Military_Powers_Publications/YEM_Houthi-Attacks-Pressuring-International-Trade.pdf">report</a> published by the Defense Intelligence Agency. Nearly all of the vessels were targeted by missiles, though some were struck by one-way attack drones.</p><p>The Houthis then lost a critical mission asset. An <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/suspected-iranian-spy-ship-sails-home-tehran-bracing-israeli-retaliation-2024-4">Iranian cargo ship suspected</a> of providing them with targeting information and intelligence sailed home. MV Behshad spent months lingering in waters near Yemen, but it left the area in mid-April as Tehran braced for Israel to retaliate over its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">unprecedented attack</a>.</p><div type="image" title="This image released by the US military's Central Command shows the fire aboard the bulk carrier True Confidence after a missile attack by the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden on March 6, 2024." height="526" width="891" msid="111365491" hostid="261" sizebytes="20162"></div><p>The following weeks saw a decrease in the pace of successful Houthi attacks. In April and May, a total of three commercial vessels reported being struck by anti-ship ballistic missiles launched by the rebels, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/02/12/all-the-houthi-us-navy-incidents-in-the-middle-east-that-we-know-of/?utm_source=sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=mil-ebb">list of incidents</a> compiled by Military Times.</p><p>June, however, has been another story. </p><p>The Houthis started the month <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/yemen-houthi-threat-red-sea-us-uk-strike-5000-pound-bunker-buster-bomb/">vowing to escalate</a> their attacks in the wake of American and British strikes in Yemen. The rebels have since struck at least five commercial vessels, finding a level of success in their targeting similar to that of the opening months of their campaign.</p><p>Some of the incidents have also revealed dangerous new tactics. Most notably, on June 12, the Houthis struck a commercial vessel in the Red Sea with an explosive-laden drone boat <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-score-first-hit-red-sea-ship-drone-boat-2024-6">for the first time</a> since they began attacking merchant shipping in November.</p><p>Unlike the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-made-naval-drones-deadlier-larger-warheads-general-says-2024-3">sophisticated naval drones</a> that have taken center stage in the Ukraine war, devastating the Russian Black Sea Fleet, this <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-struck-merchant-ship-drone-disguised-fishing-boat-red-sea-2024-6">crude-looking weapon</a> was little more than a small, slow-moving craft staffed by two dummies that appeared to resemble a common fishing vessel. As such, the vessel managed to travel over <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1800901402954477956">65 nautical miles</a> across shipping lanes without being stopped.</p><p>"There's so many small boats in that stretch of water, and that's why, actually, it's so hard to stop the smuggling of missiles and drones to the Houthis as well," Brian Carter, the Salafi-Jihadism team lead and an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, told BI.</p><p>"You can't stop every small boat. So I do think it's a useful disguise for them," he said.</p><div type="image" title="Yemen's Houthi group released a video showing an explosive-laden drone boat target a commercial vessel earlier this month." height="1027" width="1691" msid="111365488" hostid="261" sizebytes="27158"></div><p>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3805237/june-12-us-central-command-update/">initial drone boat attack</a> on the commercial bulk carrier MV Tutor caused flooding and damage to the engine room. Hours later, a Houthi missile hit the ship. The double-tap strike forced the crew to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cusnc.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/3808514/us-navy-rescues-crew-from-vessel-struck-by-houthis/">abandon the vessel</a>, and it eventually sank, becoming the second ship to do so since attacks began last fall.</p><p>The same week, the Houthis fired two anti-ship missiles, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3806589/houthis-strike-mv-verbena-in-gulf-of-aden-uss-philippine-sea-medically-evacuate/">hitting the MV Verbena</a> in the Gulf of Aden. Not even 24 hours later, the bulk cargo carrier <a target="_blank" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3807023/june-13-us-central-command-update/">was struck by another missile</a>, marking the week's second double-tap strike. The ship's crew eventually <a target="_blank" href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3808503/june-15-us-central-command-update-on-mv-verbena/">abandoned the vessel</a> due to the damage sustained by the attacks.</p><p>British security firm Ambrey <a target="_blank" href="https://ambrey.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AMBREY-THREAT-CIRCULAR_FIRST-CONFIRMED-IMPACT-OF-RC-WBIED-SINCE-NOVEMBER-2023.pdf">said</a> the attacks on the Tutor and Verbena, in addition to successful strikes on two other vessels in the days prior, were indicative of a "significant increase in effectiveness" of Houthi operations.</p><p>"Every single Houthi attack, the Houthis are probably learning something about what works and what doesn't," Carter said. "If you think about how a military organization operates, they're definitely taking away lessons from the different strike packages that they're using."</p><h2 id="a8c224ad-73ee-409d-bee0-48eab7a17ccd">Double taps and drone boats</h2><p>Beyond the recent double-tap strikes, the Houthis' ability to learn from past attacks is visible in their drone boat operations.</p><p>During the first few months of this year, US forces destroyed Houthi drone boats in Yemen nearly every time the rebels tried to launch them into shipping lanes. In June, though, the rebels managed to get <a target="_blank" href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/02/12/all-the-houthi-us-navy-incidents-in-the-middle-east-that-we-know-of/?utm_source=sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=mil-ebb">well over a dozen drone boats</a> into the water — far more than they had in any previous month.</p><p>And their ability to do so is what ultimately led to the catastrophic attack on the Tutor.</p><div type="image" title="In this photo released by the French military, the MV Tutor sinks in the Red Sea after it was struck by a Houthi drone boat." height="1143" width="2048" msid="111365489" hostid="261" sizebytes="227830"></div><p>Experts say the uptick in drone boat attacks points to the Houthis' ability to react to US strikes in Yemen and adjust their operations accordingly. </p><p>That could mean better hiding them or picking more efficient launch sites. It also suggests that the rebels could now have a larger supply of such weapons, awarding them more opportunities to launch and thus leading to a greater chance that they'll eventually hit something.</p><p>"I think it's more likely they've got more of them, so they're more willing to use them," said Macy, now a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Missile Defense Project. "They're not such precious objects, and they've probably just gotten better at it."</p><p>It's unclear what all the Houthi drone boats look like, but the small fishing craft that struck the Tutor is an inexpensive, readily available vessel that can be modified into a weapon.</p><p>It is difficult to not only prevent the rebels from obtaining their "low-tech, low-cost" means of attack and to deter them from launching attacks, Alex Stark, an associate policy researcher who covers Middle East security at the RAND Corporation, told BI.</p><p>These attacks are an "ongoing problem without an obvious or useful solution at hand," she added.</p><div type="image" title="Graduate students take part in a parade in support of the Houthi movement in Sanaa, Yemen on June 9." height="2560" width="3840" msid="111365495" hostid="261" sizebytes="555478"></div><p>White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged this week that the Houthis have been more successful in their recent targeting, though he pointed out that a majority of their attacks have still failed.</p><p>US and coalition naval forces are routinely tasked with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sailors-us-navy-gravely-destroyer-have-seconds-respond-houthi-missiles-2024-2">destroying Houthi missiles and drones</a> — both before and after launch — and many of these threats have landed in the water.</p><p>"They miss a whole hell of a lot more than they hit," Kirby told reporters on Wednesday.</p><p>He said the US will continue to "degrade their capabilities" — which <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-eisenhower-planes-in-air-constantly-houthis-2024-2">American forces</a> are said to be doing through the consistent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-tactics-shift-houthi-missiles-drones-2024-2">strikes in Yemen</a> — but cautioned that the Houthis are still getting supplied and resourced by Iran, which has been the case for years.</p><p>"The Houthis, who have no greater or lesser desire than they did six months ago, have been given more capability and are getting more support in doing so," Macy said.</p><div type="image" title="The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower sails in the Red Sea on June 12, 2024." height="4842" width="7263" msid="111365493" hostid="261" sizebytes="4112734"></div><p>Recent Houthi successes come amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-third-carrier-strike-group-react-middle-east-conflict-2024-6">changes in the American naval presence</a> in the region. The Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which spent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-group-fighting-houthis-fired-hundreds-munitions-2024-5">more than seven months battling</a> the rebels, recently left the Red Sea, but it will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-carrier-strike-group-eisenhower-houthis-red-sea-2024-6">soon be replaced</a> by the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group.</p><p>US officials have warned that the conflict has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-keep-attacking-ships-red-sea-long-time-us-intelligence-2024-5">no signs of slowing down</a>, and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-fired-nearly-one-billion-missiles-countering-iran-houthis-2024-4">growing financial toll</a> has raised questions about the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-stuck-red-sea-battle-cant-fight-houthis-forever-2024-6">long-term sustainability</a> of the counter-Houthi mission.</p><p>Experts say that despite the material effects of the Houthi campaign, which has caused disruptions to a key global shipping route, the rebels are still eager to use their attacks to boost their messaging and legitimacy. The Houthis characterize their campaign as a response to the Israel-Hamas war, but they are also attempting to position themselves as a big player in Iran's proxy network.</p><p>"I think they have discovered that this tactic is quite successful for them and very difficult to deter," Stark said.</p><p>Broader regional de-escalation might be the only way to sustainably address the problem, but that may not permanently solve it, she said. "I don't think the Houthis would be willing to cease these kinds of attacks forever."</p>

The Houthis are getting smarter with their Red Sea attacks, and the ships sailing these waters are paying the price

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel and Hamas agreed on a truce in exchange for the release of 69 hostages.</li><li>Many are still  in captivity, and Hamas is said to be unable to find about 40 of them.</li></ul><p>Israel says around 240 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-hostages-hamas-relatives-dead-alive-release-2023-11">hostages</a> were taken back to Gaza, after the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-of-hamas-oct-7-terror-attacks-israeli-homes-photos-2023-11">terrorist attack on October 7,</a> sparking <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-hostage-deal-major-diplomatic-breakthrough-gaza-war-2023-11">a frantic diplomatic and military effort</a> to get them back.</p><p>As of Tuesday, 69 had been returned in exchange for a truce, and a release of detainees from Israeli prisons.</p><p>The ceasefire and exchanges could continue, so long as Hamas can keep supplying captives. But that may be difficult.</p><p>A mediator in the negotiations — Qatar's prime minister — told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/2f684109-ec6f-4db2-9304-ef620b2e46d2">The Financial Times </a>on Sunday that Hamas was unable to locate some 40 women and children being held.</p><p>Six experts on hostage-negotiation efforts, who spoke to Business Insider, explained how Hamas might have been able to allow hostages to go missing in Gaza.</p><h2><strong>Chaos and confusion</strong></h2><p>Scott Walker, a veteran hostage negotiator and former counter-terrorism advisor to the UN, highlighted the role of the "fog of war" in the possible disappearance of hostages.</p><p>"You've got to appreciate that there's lots of confusion, with the fact that Gaza is essentially a warzone," he told Business Insider.</p><p>Hamas rounded up a lot of hostages on October 7, and Gaza quickly found itself in a state of chaos amid <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-using-big-bombs-weighing-1-000-to-2-000-pounds-gaza-report-2023-11">Israeli retaliatory strikes.</a></p><p>More than 14,500 people in Gaza have died as a result of the strikes, according to the Hamas-run authorities.</p><p>The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gazas-internet-crisis-un-activists-fear-near-total-blackout-2023-10">collapse of internet and phone connectivity, </a>along with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.barrons.com/news/hamas-military-wing-confirms-northern-brigade-commander-3-other-leaders-dead-e688fd2b">Israel killing Hamas military leaders</a>, may have contributed to a scenario where Hamas genuinely lost track of the hostages.</p><p>"I think there's an assumption that there's some kind of seamless, coordinated response behind the scenes," he said. "But actually, let's think about the reality here. There's going to be lots of confusion, lots of uncertainty."</p><h2><strong>Hamas is not the only armed group in Gaza</strong></h2><p>Several experts suggested that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-hamas-2023-10">Hamas</a> may be unable to account for all of the hostages because they are being held by rival groups who might not want to strike a deal.</p><p>Brian Carter, the Salafi-Jihadi Team lead analyst at AEI's Critical Threats Project, told Business Insider: "Hamas may not know the whereabouts of hostages held by the al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, PIJ [Palestinian Islamic Jihad], and other, smaller groups."</p><p>The Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a rival group to Hamas, claimed in a statement posted by its ally, Lebanon's Hezbollah, that it had more than 30 of the hostages, around one eighth of the total.</p><p>It said it would not release them until all Palestinian prisoners held by Israel were released, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-2023-11-21/card/palestinian-islamic-jihad-says-it-won-t-release-its-israeli-hostages-EZyNJwMid7qorXrI9dyz#:~:text=Palestinian%20Islamic%20Jihad%20Says%20It%20Won't%20Release%20Its%20Israeli%20Hostages,-By&amp;text=Gaza%2Dbased%20militant%20group%20Palestinian,held%20in%20the%20Palestinian%20enclave.">according to The Wall Street Journal</a> — a far bigger demand than Hamas has made.</p><p>Hans-Jakob Schindler, a senior director of the Counter Extremism Project non-profit, told BI that groups like the PIJ may seek to play the situation to its advantage.</p><p>"Hamas cannot just order those hostages to be handed over, especially since all of the others understand that the hostages could be very valuable for them as well," he said.</p><p>According to Schindler, Hamas is not only negotiating with Israel, but it is also dealing with "internal Palestinian negotiations" to recover hostages from other groups.</p><p>He added: "This is the most complex hostage situation I've seen ever, not just because of the number of hostages, but because of the number of groups that hold hostages, and those groups don't answer to Hamas."</p><h2><strong>A remote possibility of escapes and deaths</strong></h2><p>There's also a chance that some of the hostages may have escaped, been transferred to other groups, or died, according to Schindler.</p><p>"It is always possible that hostages can actually escape from wherever they are held," he said.</p><p>He pointed to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/27/freed-israeli-hostage-briefly-escaped-hamas-after-airstrike-relative-gaza">reports about Roni Krivoy,</a> a freed Israeli hostage, who is said to have briefly escaped his captors after the building he was in was bombed.</p><p>Schindler said that while it was possible some had died, he said Hamas would be unlikely to keep that secret, and would seek to blame the deaths on Israeli bombing.</p><h2><strong>Buying time</strong></h2><p>Rachel Briggs, the CEO of The Clarity Factory security consulting group, was skeptical of Hamas claims not to be able to find people.</p><p>It could be claiming not to have the hostages to buy more time away from the fighting, she said.</p><p>"From the get-go, the way in which these releases have been orchestrated with a sort of drip-drip-drip over days, that certainly wouldn't have been Israel's preferred approach to this," she said.</p><p>She added: "So that to me suggests that playing for time is definitely something that Hamas is trying to do. "</p><p>Professor Boaz Ganor, President of Israel's Reichman University, who has previously advised the Israeli government on counterterrorism, told BI that he agreed with the buying-time thesis.</p><p>"The whole process of saying they don't know is for one purpose only and this is to stall," he said.</p><p>Ganor cited two possible reasons for this.</p><p>One, he said, was to drag out Israel's military campaign, hoping the passage of time would weaken its support from its allies.</p><p>"Every day that passes, the Israeli legitimacy declines," he said.</p><p>Another, he said, was for Hamas to regroup for when the fighting restarts.</p><p>"I tend to believe that we will see much harsher resistance from Hamas afterward," he said.</p><h2><strong>All of the above</strong></h2><p>For Chris White, the co-founder of Negotiation Global, who has experience of hostage negotiations in Gaza, hostages going missing could be plausibly explained by all of the above explanations.</p><p>He told Business Insider: "Is it possible that some hostages escaped? Yes. Is it possible that some have passed away? Yes. Is it possible that some have been sold on possibly to other groups by unscrupulous people? Yes. And is it possible that actually, it was so chaotic that Hamas doesn't actually know where they all are? Yes."</p><p>"All of the above are possible."</p>

Why some 40 Israeli hostages may have gone missing in Gaza

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5642076bbd86ef18008c8b81-908-681/isis 4.jpg" alt="ISIS Islamic State" data-mce-source="Nashir" /><p class="source"><span>Nashir</span></p></div><p></p></div></div>The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria.</p><p>ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-and-al-qaeda-are-more-than-just-terrorist-groups-and-theyre-existential-threats-to-the-us-and-europe-2016-1">The first report</a> examined America's global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.</p><p>This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare US objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences.</p><p>The differences mean that the US cannot rely heavily on <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group's evaluation of several courses of action.</p><p>The key findings of this second report are:</p><ul><li><strong>The US must accomplish four strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria to achieve vital national interests and secure its people:</strong> 1) destroy enemy groups; 2) end the communal, sectarian civil wars; 3) set conditions to prevent the reconstitution of enemy groups; and 4) extricate Iraq and Syria from regional and global conflicts.</li><li><strong>Any American strategy must take urgent measures to strengthen Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi and prepare contingency efforts for his fall.</strong> The collapse of the Abadi government and return of his predecessor Nuri al Maliki would be disastrous for the fight against ISIS.</li></ul><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56a0eef65124c9ac6a8b456b-800-546/iraqi-pm-doubts-any-iranian-link-with-three-missing-americans.jpg" alt="Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi speaks during the Iraqi Police Day at a police academy in Baghdad January 9, 2016. REUTERS/Khalid al Mousily" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi speaks during the Iraqi Police Day at a police academy in Baghdad " /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi speaks during the Iraqi Police Day at a police academy in Baghdad </p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>Ongoing international negotiations within the Vienna Framework are bypassing essential requirements for long-term success in Syria.</strong> Re-establishing a stable, unitary Syrian state that secures American interests requires the US and its partners to 1) destroy ISIS, Jabhat al Nusra, and foreign Salafi-jihadi groups in Syria; 2) identify and strengthen interlocutors representing the Syrian opposition; 3) facilitate a negotiated settlement between the Syrian regime and opposition; 4) obtain regional acceptance of that settlement; 5) establish peace-enforcement mechanisms; and 6) reconstruct state institutions.</li><li><strong>The Salafi-jihadi militant base in Syria poses a threat to the US, but the US must not simply attack it</strong> because that would put the US at war with many Sunnis who must be incorporated into a future, post-Assad inclusive government. The US must separate reconcilable from irreconcilable elements. These other Salafi-jihadi groups must meet the following conditions essential for core US security objectives in order to participate: break with Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS; accept the principle of a future pluralistic and unitary Syrian state; reject violent jihad; commit to disarming to a policing and defensive level; and commit to the elimination of the current shari'a court system and the establishment of political institution-based governance.</li></ul><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/560d95acbd86ef14008be922-900-540/screen shot 2015-10-01 at 4.20.18 pm.png" alt="al nusra figher US machine gun" data-mce-source="Twitter" data-mce-caption="Al Nusra fighter with machine gun allegedly seized from the US" data-link="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict-jabhat-al-nusra-jihadists-show-off-weapons-allegedly-seized-us-trained-rebels-1522032?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=webfeeds" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-conflict-jabhat-al-nusra-jihadists-show-off-weapons-allegedly-seized-us-trained-rebels-1522032?utm_source=feedly&amp;utm_medium=webfeeds">Twitter</a></span></p><p class="caption">An al Nusra fighter</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><ul><li><strong>The superficial convergence of Iranian, Russian, Turkish, and Saudi strategic objectives with those of the US on ISIS as a threat masks significant divergences that will undermine US security requirements.</strong> Iran and Russia both seek to reduce and eliminate US influence in the Middle East and are not pursuing strategies that will ultimately defeat al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria or Iraq. Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, some linked to al Qaeda, stem from the ruling party's intent to reestablish itself as an independent, Muslim, regional power. Finally, Saudi Arabia's objectives remain shaped by perceived existential threats from Iran and a growing succession crisis, causing key divergences, especially over support to Salafi-jihadi groups. The US must lead efforts to resolve the crisis in Syria and cannot outsource them to partners.</li></ul><h3><a href="The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week planning exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. ISW and CTP will publish the findings of this exercise in multiple reports. The first report examined America's global grand strategic objectives as they relate to the threat from ISIS and al Qaeda.[1] This second report defines American strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria, identify the minimum necessary conditions for ending the conflicts there, and compare U.S. objectives with those of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in order to understand actual convergences and divergences. The differences mean that the U.S. cannot rely heavily on international partners to achieve its objectives. Subsequent reports will provide a detailed assessment of the situation on the ground in Syria and present the planning group's evaluation of several courses of action.  The key findings of this second report are:  The U.S. must accomplish four strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria to achieve vital national interests and secure its people: 1) destroy enemy groups; 2) end the communal, sectarian civil wars; 3) set conditions to prevent the reconstitution of enemy groups; and 4) extricate Iraq and Syria from regional and global conflicts. Any American strategy must take urgent measures to strengthen Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi and prepare contingency efforts for his fall. The collapse of the Abadi government and return of his predecessor Nuri al Maliki would be disastrous for the fight against ISIS. Ongoing international negotiations within the Vienna Framework are bypassing essential requirements for long-term success in Syria. Re-establishing a stable, unitary Syrian state that secures American interests requires the U.S. and its partners to 1) destroy ISIS, Jabhat al Nusra, and foreign Salafi-jihadi groups in Syria; 2) identify and strengthen interlocutors representing the Syrian opposition; 3) facilitate a negotiated settlement between the Syrian regime and opposition; 4) obtain regional acceptance of that settlement; 5) establish peace-enforcement mechanisms; and 6) reconstruct state institutions. The Salafi-jihadi militant base in Syria poses a threat to the U.S., but the U.S. must not simply attack it because that would put the U.S. at war with many Sunnis who must be incorporated into a future, post-Assad inclusive government. The U.S. must separate reconcilable from irreconcilable elements. These other Salafi-jihadi groups must meet the following conditions essential for core U.S. security objectives in order to participate: break with Jabhat al Nusra and ISIS; accept the principle of a future pluralistic and unitary Syrian state; reject violent jihad; commit to disarming to a policing and defensive level; and commit to the elimination of the current shari'a court system and the establishment of political institution-based governance. The superficial convergence of Iranian, Russian, Turkish, and Saudi strategic objectives with those of the U.S. on ISIS as a threat masks significant divergences that will undermine U.S. security requirements. Iran and Russia both seek to reduce and eliminate U.S. influence in the Middle East and are not pursuing strategies that will ultimately defeat al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria or Iraq. Turkey's support for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups, some linked to al Qaeda, stem from the ruling party's intent to reestablish itself as an independent, Muslim, regional power. Finally, Saudi Arabia's objectives remain shaped by perceived existential threats from Iran and a growing succession crisis, causing key divergences, especially over support to Salafi-jihadi groups. The U.S. must lead efforts to resolve the crisis in Syria and cannot outsource them to partners. - See more at: http://post.understandingwar.org/report/competing-visions-syria-and-iraq-myth-anti-isis-grand-coalition#sthash.jQzAOgFL.dpuf">You can read the full report here»</a></h3>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-navys-last-line-defense-ultimate-gun-2016-1">The US Navy's last line of defense is this ultimate gun</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Vicng3MDE6PB-RRSizmcLiG2yA2WKRJ3" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'Vicng3MDE6PB-RRSizmcLiG2yA2WKRJ3',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

The idea of an anti-ISIS grand coalition is a myth

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56f30e9452bcd025008b86a0-1108-831/rtsby9a.jpg" alt="Belgium Brussels attacks" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Christian Hartmann" data-mce-caption="Belgian flags seen at a street memorial service near the old stock exchange in Brussels following Tuesday's bomb attacks in Brussels, Belgium, March 23, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Christian Hartmann</span></p><p class="caption">Belgian flags seen at a street memorial service near the old stock exchange in Brussels following Tuesday's bomb attacks in Brussels, Belgium, March 23, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Belgium has the highest per-capita rate of foreign fighters of any Western European country, and its anti-terrorism police are <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/belgium-terror-police-overwhelmed-2016-3">struggling to keep up</a> with the number of cases of radicalized individuals they see.</p><p>The small country, which shares borders with France, the Netherlands, and Germany, has been described as <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/22/how-belgium-became-a-terrorism-hotbed.html">"Europe's terror hotbed,"</a> a moniker that was widely repeated in various forms on Tuesday when more than 30 people <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/2-explosions-reported-at-brussels-airport-2016-3" target="_blank">were killed</a> and more than 200 injured after explosions ripped through a Brussels airport and metro station.</p><p>The terrorists who are thought to be responsible for the Brussels bombings also have links to the November attacks in Paris that killed 130 people. The terrorist group ISIS (also known as the Islamic State, ISIL, or Daesh), claimed responsibility for both attacks.</p><p>Both plots were at least partially planned in Belgium, which is thought to have an extensive network of jihadists. Belgians have contributed more than 400 fighters to extremist groups in Syria and Iraq, <a href="http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/TSG_ForeignFightersUpdate3.pdf">according to a 2015 report</a> from strategic security firm The Soufan Group. Of those, more than 100 are thought to have returned to Belgium.</p><p>There's no one-size-fits-all explanation for why so many young Belgians are drawn to terrorist organizations, but experts have identified socio-economic inequality, existing terrorist networks, and an overwhelmed security force as major factors that make Belgium a fertile ground for extremism.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56f26fd452bcd022008b8343-800-389/screen shot 2016-03-23 at 10.26.57.png" alt="Brussels suspect" data-mce-source="Twitter/Barbara Tasch/Skitch" /><p class="source"><span>Twitter/Barbara Tasch/Skitch</span></p><p class="caption">The suspects in the Brussels attacks.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Existing networks</h2><p>Belgium has long-existing jihadi networks that became especially active as Western countries got involved in conflicts in the Middle East.</p><p>Edwin Bakker, director of the Centre for Terrorism and Counterterrorism of Leiden University in the Netherlands, told Business Insider that Belgium's participation in a US-led anti-ISIS coalition has been cited as a reason why terrorist have targeted the small European country.</p><p>"The existence of a number of well-organized salafi-jihadist networks - such as Sharia4Belgium - contributed to the growth of salafi-jihadist scenes from which many individuals left for Syria after the outbreak of the civil war and after governmental action was taken against these organizations," Bakker said in an email.</p><p>He continued:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">The (long) existence of jihadist networks is an important explanation, in combination with charismatic leadership. That also explains why some cities have "produced" no or only a few jihadist foreign fighters and cities and towns like Brussels and Vilvoorde relatively many.</p><p>Petter Nesser, a senior researcher with the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and author of the recent book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Islamist-Terrorism-Europe-A-History/dp/0190264020">"Islamist Terrorism in Europe,"</a> <a href="http://www.hurstpublishers.com/molenbeek-one-of-several-jihadi-hotspots-in-europe/#.Vu6w-FbK974.twitter">noted after the Paris attacks</a> that savvy jihadi recruiters can be a powerful pull:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">The European jihadi underground revolves around experienced jihad entrepreneurs, who recruit and socialize misfits and drifters, politicize grievances they may have, and employ them as tools for transnational militants, such as al-Qaeda and IS. Social despair may create a hospitable environment for recruitment, but in many cases social ties and loyalty to entrepreneurs are sufficient driving forces.</p><p>In an <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/06/01/journey-to-jihad">article for The New Yorker</a> last year, Ben Taub noted that the Sharia4Belgium group, established in 2010, recruited dozens of young Belgian people to travel to Syria and wage jihad. The group wanted to "replace the parliament with a shura council and the Prime Minister with a caliph; stone adulterers and execute homosexuals; and convert or banish all non-Muslims, or force them to pay <em>jizya</em>, a tax levied on those who don't adhere to the faith."</p><p>Essentially, the group wanted to transform Belgium into an Islamic state governed by strict Sharia law.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56ef1bbb52bcd01b008b79cc-926-636" alt="Molenbeek Paris attack" data-mce-source="EPA/Stephanie Lecocq" data-mce-caption="Molenbeek locals watch as police raid unfolds." /><p class="source"><span>EPA/Stephanie Lecocq</span></p><p class="caption">Molenbeek locals watch as police raid unfolds.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Segregation and lack of opportunity</h2><p>A lack of opportunity and feeling isolated from more privileged parts of European society couple with a lack of knowledge about Islam could attract young Europeans to jihadist recruiters, who offer them a purpose in jihad and promise that they will be sent to heaven as religious martyrs.</p><p>Taub noted that one Belgian fighter who had been raised Catholic was drawn to Sharia4Belgium after his grades started slipping at school and his girlfriend dumped him. He later told police that he started "looking for an alternative to the pain" and then found Islam and, eventually, Sharia4Belgium.</p><p>Each person's path to radicalization is different, but some young Belgians who don't have much opportunity at home and are searching for purpose in their lives might feel that foreign jihad or attacks on the homeland offer a worthy path.</p><p>"Some argue that Syria and the violent jihad attracted more Belgians because of social-economic problems that young (north-African) Muslims are facing in places like Brussels," Bakker said.</p><p>In contrast, as US President Barack Obama pointed out on Wednesday, one of the reasons the US hasn't seen more homegrown terrorist attacks is that the US has "an extraordinarily successful, patriotic, integrated Muslim-American community."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/564a08912491f90d248b54ff-4523-3024/rts76p5.jpg" alt="People shop at a market in the neighborhood of Molenbeek, where Belgian police staged a raid following the attacks in Paris, at Brussels, Belgium November 15, 2015." data-mce-source="Reuters" data-mce-caption="People shop at a market in the neighbourhood of Molenbeek, where Belgian police staged a raid following the attacks in Paris, at Brussels, Belgium November 15, 2015." /><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption"> People shop at a market in the neighborhood of Molenbeek, where Belgian police staged a raid following the attacks in Paris, at Brussels, Belgium November 15, 2015. </p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>In many places of Europe, Muslim immigrants are not integrated into the mainstream.</p><p>Rik Coolsaet, a terrorism expert and professor at Belgium's Ghent Institute for International Studies, described the situation in the Brussels suburb of Molenbeek in a paper that was published two weeks ago:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">More than a decade and a half before it became a "global byword for jihadism," it was the scene of some widespread rioting (similar to the rioting in English or French suburbs). At the time, the aforementioned Belgian investigative journalist Chris De Stoop attempted to gauge the malaise in this borough. He found a complex mosaic, composed of vibrant local community activities, pockets of genuine despair and accumulated frustrations, and cliques of troublemakers.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">This rioting, according to a local social worker, was born out of desperation about lacking prospects in a neighbourhood characterized by poor job prospects, bad housing and deficient education.</p><p>But the roots of jihadism have a more complicated origin. Nesser cautioned against relying too much on the socio-economic trope to explain why some Belgian youth are attracted to extremism.</p><p>"Although jihadi hubs are oftentimes located in socio-economically deprived areas, this is not always the case," Nesser wrote. "For instance, the new generation of jihadis in Europe," including the Sharia4 groups that exist in several areas of Europe, "recruited many members among university students and in middle class environments in the UK."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56f176159105841d008b812b-4490-2729/rtsbpih.jpg" alt="brussels attack belgium" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Christian Hartmann" data-mce-caption="Police stand guard at Midi train station following bomb attacks in Brussels, Belgium, March 22, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Christian Hartmann</span></p><p class="caption">Police stand guard at Midi train station following bomb attacks in Brussels, Belgium, March 22, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Overwhelmed security forces</h2><p>An expert who met with Belgian counterterrorism officials last week told Business Insider on Tuesday that the country is overwhelmed by the number of radicalized people who pose threats to the country.</p><p>"Belgians have a really big problem because they have the largest number per capita of western foreign fighters from any country," said Matthew Levitt, the director of The Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence, adding that Belgian police have only begun to understand the depth of the country's terrorism problem in the past year.</p><p>"The numbers are simply overwhelming."</p><p>The problem of radicalization in Belgium has been festering for a while, making it more difficult to reign in.</p><p>"They have a problem both in terms of getting on top of the immediate threat that has developed over time and then also moving the needle early in the process and putting in place a 20-year plan in places like Molenbeek to prevent radicalization," Levitt said.</p><p>Because authorities have only recently come to terms with the extent of the problem, the cooperation between police forces and intelligence networks on the ground aren't where they need to be.</p><p>"The situation in Brussels is worrisome where local officials do not cooperate and police forces have little connection to the populations of parts of the Brussels region with a lot of Muslim migrants," Bakker said.</p><p>"In other words, they lack eyes and ears on the ground," he said. "They are investing in local networks, but it seems a case of too little too late."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-steaks-magazine-wine-politics-2016-3"> Trump celebrated victory with a batch of 'Trump Steaks' that some are saying were actually from another company</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="x5Ynd1MTE6NBZJ6kynI3GmKo3PqJxr_q" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'x5Ynd1MTE6NBZJ6kynI3GmKo3PqJxr_q',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

How Belgium became a terrorist breeding ground

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/559415dbecad04954bd8d3d0-736-529/isis-twitter-anonymous-opisis-xrsone.jpg" border="0" alt="isis twitter anonymous opisis xrsone"><p class="source"><span>social media</span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div>The US and other western countries have been alarmed at how the Islamic State terror group has been able to lure teenagers and young people to the Middle East to join their ranks.</p><p>Rukmini Callimachi of The New York Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/28/world/americas/isis-online-recruiting-american.html">recently wrote about</a> a 23-year-old American woman from Washington state who has been communicating with Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL, and Daesh) recruiters online.</p><p>The woman, "Alex," showed Callimachi the messages and reading materials these recruiters had sent her, and their approach to grooming her seems textbook.</p><p>The Times notes that the tactics are similar to those laid out in an Al Qaeda manual called <a href="https://ia800300.us.archive.org/32/items/ACourseInTheArtOfRecruiting-RevisedJuly2010/A_Course_in_the_Art_of_Recruiting_-_Revised_July2010.pdf">"A Course in the Art of Recruiting."</a> <span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Although ISIS and Al Qaeda are now two separate organizations, ISIS recruiters seem to follow many of the same basic guidelines for luring people in and indoctrinating them. And with the rise of social media, reaching these recruits across the globe has become even easier.</span></p><p>The ISIS recruiters Alex connected with through social media built their relationships with her slowly. They started off by talking to her about Islam and gradually indoctrinated her to believe that the Western media had exaggerated ISIS atrocities.</p><p>While Al Qaeda seemed more cautious about who they recruited, ISIS is more open. They communicate with people online, many of whom have never been to Muslim countries, and also target women, whom they marry to ISIS fighters in Syria and elsewhere.</p><p>Here's a look at what the Al Qaeda training manual says about recruiting:</p><h2>Extremists seek out non-religious people.</h2><p>From the manual: "You should take precautions against the religious people whom you invite, because maybe they will reject the da'wa (invitation) and end up being the reason for our defeat."</p><p>ISIS looks to manipulate those who are vulnerable and searching for meaning in their lives. Those who don't know much about Islam can be easier to indoctrinate and less likely to push back on what they're told.</p><p>The manual says that non-religious Muslim youths are preferred: "This is because you will be the one to guide him (i.e. this nonreligious Muslim) to the right path; and you can choose who you want to be with you in your brigade, God willing. This sector (contains candidates) without limit, especially the youths, who are the safest people (for recruitment), and all praise be to Allah. However, we must be careful, too."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/557980bdecad04987c49d053-840-519/screen shot 2015-06-11 at 8.22.33 am-1.png" border="0" alt="isis"><p class="source"><span>Youtube/Vice News</span></p><p class="caption">A young ISIS supporter in Raqqa, Syria August, 2014</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>They also seek out students and people who are isolated, living away from big cities.</h2><p>Jihadists go after people in isolated areas because they "have a natural disposition for the religion and it is easy to convince them and to shape them," according to the manual.</p><p>High school and college students are also prime targets. From the manual:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"The university is like a place of isolation for a period of four, five, or six years and is full of youths (full of zeal, vigor, and anti-government sentiments). However, you should be careful because it is also full of spies.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"[High school students] are young but tomorrow they will be adults, so if you don't give them da'wa some one else will (but it will be for materialistic goals). However, don't be in a hurry because haste in this matter might destroy the da'wa. The merits of this sector: 1. Often they have pure minds; 2. It is very safe to deal with them because they are not likely to be spies, especially after they pass the stage of individual da'wa."</p><h2>The recruitment starts subtly as to not scare the person away.</h2><p>"Be careful of talking about the problems of the Muslims from the beginning (of the relationship) so as not to make the relationship appear as your recruiting him," the manual says. "He will say to himself, 'you are doing all of this with me, just to recruit me, etc.' Also, don't rush anything because there will be a proper time for everything.</p><p>"Be careful not to talk about Al Qaida, Salafi Jihadis, or any specific jihadi group in the first stages, but the da'ee (preacher) should speak about the mujahideen and the resistance fighters in general, because maybe this candidate loves the mujahideen but the media has distorted their image, especially Al Qaida."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/559412616da811fc5651e624-1036-579/screenshot 2015-07-01 17.15.11.png" border="0" alt="ISIS recruiting"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/28/world/americas/isis-online-recruiting-american.html">Screenshot / The New York Times</a></span></p><p class="caption">A book that an ISIS recruiter gave a 23-year-old woman in Washington state.</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>They ply recruits with jihadist propaganda.</h2><p>"You should also make a schedule for him to listen to at least one lecture daily," the manual says. "These lectures, books, and pamphlets must become his best friends."</p><p>The manual also advises sending Islamic books and lectures on CDs. There's a list of recommended reading, but the manual says recruiters shouldn't show candidates any jihadi videos "except when his iman (faith) is at a high level, and when he is in a state of tranquility in order to have the best effect on him and on his heart."</p><h2>They exploit tragedies.</h2><p>The manual tells recruiters to "use current events and/or horrible occasions (i.e. the siege of Gaza) to comment and explain the situation of the Muslims (according to the Islamic perspective)."</p><p>"Make most of your speech about Palestine," the manual instructs. "This is because there is no disagreement (amongst the scholars and Muslims) about it, and it is dear to the Islamic nation. Also the rest of the arenas of Jihad have been distorted and misrepresented by the media in different percentages (i.e. the Jihad in Islamic Morocco has been greatly distorted, but the Jihad in Chechnya has been partially distorted)."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55870c9c6bb3f7c15db73202-992-763/screenshot 2015-06-21 15.11.44.png" border="0" alt="isis control"><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis-sanctuary-june-19-2015?utm_source=ISIS+Sanctuary+and+Control+in+Syria%3A+June+19%2C+2015&amp;utm_campaign=ISIS+Sanctuary+and+Control+in+Syria%3A+June+19%2C+2015&amp;utm_medium=email">The Institute for the Study of War</a></span></p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>They become close to the recruits and strike up a friendship with them.</h2><p>The manual advises: "Help to fulfill his needs. Be good with him even if he does something to harm/offend you, because everybody likes the person who does something good for them. Listen to him to get to know more about his personality. Take part with him in his good and bad times."</p><p>Recruiters also stay in close contact - the manual instructs them to make sure they don't go more than one week without reaching out to their recruit.</p><h2>They reinforce the person's good qualities and remind them of Islamic "paradise."</h2><p>From the manual: "Get to know his good morals and manners and praise them in front of him; also, tie these good morals and manners to Islam (i.e. make sure you explain to the candidate that his good morals and manners are found and promoted in Islam).</p><p>"Focus on At-Targheeb (teachings of the desiring for Paradise), but don't completely leave At-Tarheeb (teachings of the terrifying punishments of the Hellfire). (You should spend more time reminding the candidate of Paradise and how to get there, than about Hellfire.)"</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/558c36a7eab8eafb71246430-1159-869/isis-tel-abyad-raqqa-1.jpg" border="0" alt="isis Tel Abyad, Raqqa"><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Rodi Said</span></p><p class="caption">Civilians ride a motorbike past an advocacy office that belonged to Islamic State fighters in the town of Tel Abyad, Raqqa governorate, June 19, 2015. Aided by U.S.-led air strikes, the Kurdish-led YPG militia may have dealt Islamic State its worst defeat to date in Syria by seizing the town of Tel Abyad at the Turkish border, cutting a supply route to the jihadists' de facto capital of Raqqa city. Picture taken June 19, 2015. </p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><h2>Once the recruiter has established a relationship with the recruit, they start talking about jihad.</h2><p>"The candidate should get to know most of the ahadith of Jihad and Martyrdom by any means, until he desires and hopes for this," the manual says. "This usually happens to the one who fears the punishments in the Hereafter. And when he knows that Jihad will rescue him from the horror of the Day of Judgment, the result will be that he desires and hopes for Jihad."</p><p>During this stage, they also make sure the recruit adheres to prayer times and reads the Quran.</p><h2>They control the message.</h2><p>Recruiters make sure not to veer off-message. They want to avoid creating doubt in the recruit.</p><p>The manual says an entrance could be made "through Current affairs; who knows, maybe a big operation will be performed in the near future."</p><p>It continues:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"A lot of Mujahideen brothers have had dreams about big operations. Also maybe more defamation against the Messenger (sws) will occur (so you can take advantage of this situation to speak about Jihad to the candidate). Or the candidate might see a meeting of the Mujahideen on any T.V. station, so you can let him hear this meeting which might cause him to love the Mujahideen.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">"Or you can let him watch a Jihad documentary on any TV Station (i.e. al Jazeera), such as documentaries on the Jihad in Iraq. Or you can let him watch documentaries on the lives of Mujahideen leaders, etc. All of this must bring about a benefit in the da'wa (calling) him to Jihad. And do your best to deter him from the TV channels of the hypocrites, like Al I'briya and others, as well as from any other media distortions (about Jihad)."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54465fe96da811dd5432a677-800-553/isis-77.jpg" border="0" alt="ISIS"><p class="source"><span>YouTube/Screenshot</span></p><p class="caption">From an ISIS propaganda video: "I say this about your coalition: you threaten us with your countries, bring every nation that you wish to us, bring every nation that you want to come and fight us. Whether it's 50 nations or 50 thousand nations it means nothing to us."</p></img></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>ISIS is steadily attempting to build a "caliphate," an Islamic empire that aims to unite the world's Muslims under a single religious and political entity, in the Middle East, and the group has already seized large swaths of Iraq and Syria.</p><p>ISIS governs its territory according to a strict interpretation of Sharia law and convinces its recruits that they must move to the caliphate if they are able, lest they live among the "infidels" who persecute them in the West.</p><p>Westerners who convert to Islam to join ISIS are particularly valuable to the group because of the worldwide headlines they garner in the media.</p><p>ISIS <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-is-revolutionizing-international-terrorism-2015-5">plays the propaganda game well</a> and sees recruitment as essential to the long-term survival of the group.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/new-omega-globemaster-watch-unboxing-2015-5">Forget the Apple Watch - here's the new watch everyone on Wall Street wants</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="5iaDNwdDrYYMm2yipFb14ndbRkPnemqO" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '5iaDNwdDrYYMm2yipFb14ndbRkPnemqO',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div>

Here's the manual that al Qaeda and now ISIS use to brainwash people online

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/531e02f4eab8ea7f696f692c-1200-924/ukraine-111.jpg" border="0" alt="ukraine" /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko</span></p><p class="caption">Members of a pro-Russian self defence unit stand in formation as they take an oath to the Crimea government in Simferopol March 8, 2014.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Crimean Tatars, wary of Russia after Stalin deported their entire population from Crimea in 1944, are warning that any Russian annexation of Crimea could lead to a new "jihadi front."</p>
<p>There are roughly 280,000 Tatars in Crimea and Mustafa Jemilev, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, has warned that a number of them have approached him with promises they would fight any Russian occupation.</p>
<p>Guy Chazan, writing for the <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/17bd814e-a7ab-11e3-9c7d-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2va5sDI2P">Financial Times</a>, reports:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"We have Islamists, Wahhabis, Salafis . . . groups who have fought [with the opposition] in Syria," [Jemilev] said in an interview in Simferopol, the Crimean capital. "They say: 'an enemy has entered our land and we are ready'.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">"We can't stop people who want to die with honour," he said, making he clear he did not endorse a jihadist campaign.</p>
<p><span>Tatars make up an estimated 12% of the population of Crimea. </span></p>
<p>The new Crimean parliament has already <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/crimean-parliament-votes-unanimously-to-become-part-of-russia-2014-3">voted unanimously</a> to join Russia and a popular referendum on the issue is scheduled for March 16. </p>
<p>Any possible jihad in Crimea would only further complicate the Ukrainian crisis while further internationalizing the conflict. An ongoing Islamic separatist conflict in the Caucasus against Russia was the paramount <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-launches-massive-security-clampdown-in-sochi-before-the-olympics-2014-1">security concern</a> during the Sochi Olympics, and the insurgency there is often a major training ground for jihadists in other conflicts.</p>
<p>A number of Crimean Tatars have formed connections with the global jihadist network, having fought alongside rebels against Bashar al-Assad in Syria.</p>
<p>There is already chatter on jihadi internet forums and social media as to whether Russia's invasion of Crimea legitimizes it as a new militant front.</p>
<p>Although the new Russian-backed Crimean parliament has offered extensive power-sharing deals with the Tatars, they remain skeptical of any deals with politicians they see as Russian puppets.</p>
<p>"This agreement is not worth the paper it's written on," Jemilev told the <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/17bd814e-a7ab-11e3-9c7d-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2va5sDI2P">Financial Times</a>. "Everything can change tomorrow."</p>

Jihadi Crimean Tatars Threaten Terrorism After Russian Takeover

<p><div class="image-container float_right click-to-enlarge" style="width:400px"><div class="image"><a title_source="YouTube" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/511db69decad04dc0c000012-960/americanfighter.jpg"><span class="click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/511db69decad04dc0c000012-900-600/americanfighter.jpg?maxX=400&amp;maxY=267" border="0" alt="American fighter in Syria" width="400" height="267" /></a></div><p class="source"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=QWOspljRbfI">YouTube</a></p></div>Two unconfirmed amateur videos posted to YouTube appear to show an American fighting alongside rebel forces in <keyword id="6354913" type="COUNTRY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Syria">Syria</keyword> against Bashar al-Assad.</p>
<p>The first, posted by Abu Adam Hourani on Jan. 15, identifies the man as U.S. mujahid — short for the Arabic plural form mujahideen, or "people doing jihad" — wearing what appears to be a <keyword id="6359526" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Military">military</keyword> uniform and speaking English in an American accent, taunting the Assad regime.</p>
<p>The group he is with has been <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/michaelrusch/american-appears-to-be-fighting-alongside-terrorists-in-syri" target="_blank">identified by BuzzFeed</a> as Jabhet al-Nusra — a group designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department.</p>
<p><span>“Bashar Assad, your days are numbered,” he says in the 42 second video. “You are going down in flames. You should just quit now, while you can, and leave. You are going to die, no matter what. Where you go we will find you and kill you. Do you understand?”</span></p>
<p><iframe width="640" height="358" frameborder="0" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/2SEdheC8Yq4?rel=0"></iframe></p>
<p>The second video, uploaded on Feb. 12 by a different user, is described as follows:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>In this footage, an American with a Salafi (or Amish) beard is seen sitting in a Jeep next to an Arab fighter rejoicing for having shot down a Syrian military helicopter.</span></p>
<p><span>As rebels appear to be looting the downed helicopter, the camera turns back towards what appears to be the same man, celebrating the attack:</span></p>
<p><span>"Yes, we smoked the motherf------, didn't we? Hell yeah. We smoked about, I don't know, ten-twenty," he says with a smile and laugh. </span></p>
<p>Although it's difficult to make out all the words, <span>an Arabic translator tells me that the most entertaining piece is when the driver yells "F--- Bashar al-Assad!" The passenger talks over him but the driver can still be heard disparaging al-Assad's mother.</span></p>
<p><iframe width="640" height="358" frameborder="0" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/QWOspljRbfI?rel=0"></iframe></p>
<p>As the <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/assads-american-enemy-resurfaces/" target="_blank">Times of Israel reports</a>, <span>it is unclear how many Americans are fighting in the civil war against Assad, but the speaker in the videos would not be the only one fighting alongside Syrian rebels.</span></p>
<p><span><a href="http://www.matthewvandyke.com/" target="_blank">Matthew VanDyke</a>, an American and self-proclaimed freedom fighter, participated in the uprising against Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, then fought in Syria before returning to the United States.</span></p>

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