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New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

<ul><li>Three banks would be most impacted by the move as their capital ratios would be affected by 30-85 basis points.</li><li>Capital buffers will have to be further strengthened by banks if they want to lend to consumers for unsecured loans.</li><li>Borrowers with more than five personal loans rose from 1% in 2018 to 7.7% in March 2023, as per a report.</li></ul> Shares of <keyword id="116253" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="sbi-cards" source="Orion">SBI Cards</keyword>, RBL Bank, <keyword id="6357149" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="hdfc-bank" source="Orion">HDFC Bank</keyword> and <keyword id="6653" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="icici-bank" source="Orion">ICICI Bank</keyword> are expected to come under pressure after the Reserve Bank of India asked lenders on Thursday to set aside more capital for consumer loans. This move is expected to impact the capital buffers of these banks. According to analysts, these banks would be most impacted by the move as their capital ratios would be affected by 30-85 basis points. For banks the first line of defense against bad loans is CET Tier 1 capital or Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1), which is the highest quality of regulatory capital, as it absorbs losses immediately when they occur. According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the CET 1 impact would be maximum for RBL/HDFC Bank/ICICI Bank at 84 basis points/72 basis points/64 basis points. Among non banks, SBI Cards would be the most vulnerable with a 416bp impact on capital ratios. Capital buffers will have to be further strengthened by banks if they want to lend to consumers for unsecured loans. If a bank had to set aside say ₹20 for loans, it will now have to set aside 25% more for every unsecured loan it issues. Not just this the banks will have to set aside more capital if they want to lend to shadow banks or non banking financial institutions as well. When cost of capital increases, so will lending rates. In the years after the pandemic broke, unsecured personal loans to retail borrowers have been on a steady rise. Not just banks but even non banks have been merrily issuing such loans to borrowers, and in many cases these borrowers have multiple such loans used for consumption. From 12-14% these loans are now growing at 30% rate. The central bank has cracked down on some non banks for not adhering to norms while underwriting such small ticket loans. The red flags have been flying high for a while now. According to proprietary research done by UBS, borrowers with more than five personal loans rose from 1% in 2018 to 7.7% in March 2023. New disbursement of personal loans to borrowers with weaker credit profiles accounted for 22% of disbursements. Of all banks, UBS was of the view that state-owned banks and non banking financial companies had a much higher share of weak borrowers compared to private banks. Analysts believe that pressure on net interest margins and higher credit costs to impact earnings of banks and shadow banks over FY24 and FY25. Paytm, a fintech company, has recently built a large loan portfolio which is mostly comprised of personal loans. With the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> cracking down on these loans, the loan growth will be impacted for Paytm too. Deepak Shenoy, CEO of Capital Mind, took to social media to explain the impact, “See how it affects SBI cards: SBI Cards had credit card receivables of ₹ 45,000 crore with 23% capital adequacy ratio (CAR). So ₹10,500 cr in capital (23% of ₹45Kcr). Increase risk weight to 125% means ₹45K cr=₹56K cr risk weighted assets.” Shenoy explains that if “SBI Cards wants to grow, and keep high CARs (min is 15% I think?) they’ll need to raise capital and dilute. Which means for the same profit = higher capital. Means lower ROEs.” ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/markets/news/foreign-investors-continue-to-bet-big-on-banks-and-nibbling-on-small-and-mid-cap-stocks/articleshow/104462273.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Borrowers with multiple personal loans a big risk to profitability of banks and NBFCs</a>

RBI tightens norms on personal loans for banks and NBFCs; stocks to be under pressure

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks climbed higher as traders took in inflation figures from October that were in-line with estiamtes.</li><li>Consumer prices rose 2.6% on a yearly basis last month and 0.2% for the month. </li></ul>US stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in fresh <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">inflation figures</a>, which were in line with economists' expectations. Major indexes edged up in early-morning trading, while bond yields slumped.Consumer prices grew 0.2% in the month of October and 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">slightly hotter</a> than last month's 2.4% price growth, but in line with expectations, which kept investors hopeful that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting. Expectations for another 25 basis point rate cut in December solidified. Markets are pricing in a 82% chance the Fed will trim its target rate by another quarter-point, up from a 59% yesterday, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Given nervousness around the more inflationary aspects of Trump's policy proposals, markets appeared primed for an upside inflation surprise today," Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in a note. "A December cut is still in the cards," she added.Still, the rise in the overall inflation rate makes the outlook for future Fed cuts uncertain, according to Skyler Weinand, the chief investment officer of Regan Capital."With Wednesday's CPI in line with expectations, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% goal, the Fed may have only one rate cut left in December before taking a pause from their easing path," Weinand said in a note.He continued: "The incredible move in the stock market postelection has effectively eased financial conditions for stock investors. This easing, combined with incoming fiscal stimulus, may warrant a pause on rate cuts by the Fed in the near future to allow the dust to settle and to process more incoming data."Assets that are part of the Trump Trade appeared to remain in-focus on Wednesday, with shares of Tesla rising as much as 3% while Dogecoin climbed 4% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-trump-tesla-spacex-x-department-government-efficiency-jobs-2024-11">Elon Musk was appointed</a> to co-head Trump's newly created Department of Government Efficiency, along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,988.06, up 0.07%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,988.08, up 0.18% (+77.10 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,285.65, up 0.03% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-top-performing-asset-2025-bull-rally-trump-2024-11">Stock exposure is at an 11-year high</a> after the election as investors see US stocks as the top-performing asset next year, BofA said. </li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biggest-risk-trump-win-china-trade-war-2024-11">The biggest risk to stocks</a> after Trump's election victory is China's reaction to a trade war, according to one research firm.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dogecoin-price-market-value-ford-crypto-boom-trump-elon-musk-2024-11">Dogecoin surpassed Ford in value</a> as Trump's election win propelled the total crypto market cap to $3 trillion.</li><li>Here are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-trump-trade-outlook-risks-inflation-yields-dollar-2024-11">3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks</a>, according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil declined 1.07% to $67.39 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.92% to $71.23 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up 0.61% to $2,612.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped six basis points to 4.365%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed 4.29% to $89,642.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes edge higher after tame October inflation report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Pandemic-fueled inflation seems to be spurring voters to kick out leaders.</li><li>Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere.</li></ul>From London to Tokyo, Seoul to Cape Town, 2024 has been a year of sharp election swings. Now you can add Washington D.C. to the list.Donald Trump soundly beat Democrat VP Kamala Harris in the US election, faring better than in 2020 in virtually every part of the country and with nearly all demographic groups. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/voters-world-elections-against-ruling-parties-analysis-2024-7">rejection of incumbent political parties</a> across the world this year.The US vice president's late substitution for Biden as the Democratic candidate, and her decision to embrace his policies instead of distancing herself from them, meant she <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-lost-biden-unpopularity-trump-election-2024-11">effectively ran as an incumbent</a>.In contrast, Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election race enabled him to run as a "change candidate" this cycle and promise to disrupt the status quo.<h2 id="4f519aa6-7d08-4663-8d7f-8e62f03fcb58">Voter backlash</h2>Analysts have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-analysis-harris-immigration-abortion-economy-musk-2024-11">proposed many theories</a> as to why Harris lost, ranging from her gender and race, to her failure to reach out to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-musk-cuban-trump-meme-stocks-gamestop-dogecoin-crypto-markets-2024-11">young men</a>, to her support of Israel's war with Gaza, to her campaign focusing too much on reproductive rights and preserving democracy and too little on immigration and the economy.But from a global perspective, it's little surprise she lost given how many incumbent governments on both the right and the left have received a drubbing this year. Here are just a few of them:<ul><li>Britain's Labour Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-labour-party-back-in-power-rishi-sunak-concede-defeat-2024-7">ousted</a> the Conservative Party, or Tories, this summer.</li><li>France's National Rally party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/france-elections-far-right-macron-le-pen-bardella-2024-6">secured</a> more seats in the country's assembly than in 2022.</li><li>Japan's Liberal Democratic Party <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-prime-minister-shigeru-ishiba-shake-up-us-military-pact-2024-9">ceded</a> its parliamentary majority this fall.</li><li>Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/indian-election-results-shocking-blow-narendra-modi-2024-6">lost</a> his majority against expectations, forcing him to form a coalition government.</li><li>South Korea's Democrat Party snagged a majority in the country's legislature.</li><li>South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority.</li></ul>Moreover, the incumbent US party has now lost three consecutive presidential elections for the first time in more than a century, Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note this week.<h2 id="0e2b6ba9-92e6-4498-aadc-0fbc022d984f">Paying the price</h2><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">Inflation</a> has been a key driver of the voter backlash. Prices of food, fuel, housing, and other essentials took off during the pandemic as governments spent heavily and lockdowns snarled global supply chains. In the US, inflation hit a 40-year high of more than 9% in early 2022 and was still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target this September."Trump's victory is the most powerful example this year of a political and economic environment that has been brutal for incumbents around the world and brought home the fact that inflation is political kryptonite," Tina Fordham, an independent strategist and advisor, said in a LinkedIn post this week.A key consequence of inflation has been central banks raising <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/banking/what-is-interest">interest rates</a> to curb spending, hiring, and investing, cooling price growth. The Fed raised its benchmark rate from nearly zero to north of 5% in under 18 months, raising many people's monthly payments on their credit cards, car loans, and mortgages.The central bank made its first cut this September and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">trimmed</a> a second time this week, broadly in line with peers such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.Surging prices and steeper interest rates has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-jpmorgan-consumer-inflation-rates-banking-crisis-2023-4">squeezed households</a> in the US and many other countries. Voters appear to be fed up with onerous living costs and eager to kick out the leaders they blame for their struggles.Other issues, such as illegal immigration and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, have also spurred votes for change.<h2 id="508f4884-4bdf-4651-b7a6-4bb22f9f0fde">Demanding change</h2>In the US, those concerns are so powerful that they've trumped the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-outlook-pandemic-stock-market-crash-inflation-recession-rates-ai-2024-2">economic reality</a> of resilient growth, historically low unemployment, declining inflation, falling rates, and a record stock market. In a CNN exit poll, 72% of Americans said they were dissatisfied with the country's direction.Louis Perron, a political consultant author of "Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections," said in a note this week that elections featuring an incumbent are "foremost a referendum on the incumbent."In Harris' case, he said "it would have probably taken a miracle to overcome the circumstances with respect to inflation and the border."People "can't pay for groceries with Democracy or reproductive rights," he added. "If the mood of the electorate is so sour, people just want to stop the bleeding."Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth.He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."

Voters worldwide are angry about higher prices and keep punishing those in power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US indexes were mixed on Wednesday as traders took in the latest inflation data.</li><li>Core inflation rose 0.3% in August, slightly above economists' expectations.</li></ul>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as investors took in last month's inflation report, which showed an unexpected increase in the monthly core consumer price index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 400 points shortly after the opening bell. Bond yields rose as traders readjusted expectations for a jumbo rate hike of 50 basis points at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. August inflation came mostly in line with economists' expectations, with the consumer price index rising 2.5% year-per-year last month — the slowest pace of inflation recorded since February 2021.But core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly hotter than anticipated.The surprise increase led investors to almost completely discount the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in an 83% chance central bankers will trim rates by 25 basis points, up from 66% odds priced a day ago, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>."Core inflation beating expectations in August should tilt the Fed toward an initial 25 bps rate cut next week," Josh Jamner, an investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments, said in a note on Wednesday. "Further signs that inflation may be a bit stickier than previously thought would likely result in a slower and shallower cutting cycle. This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets," he added, noting that investors had priced in over 250 basis points worth of cuts by the end of next year."The August CPI report was like the Hippocratic Oath, it did no real harm to the financial markets," Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, wrote in a note. "A 50bps cut should not be in the cards as the recession call needs further deterioration in the labor market and the Fed likes its optionality."Fed officials are set to meet next week to discuss the central bank's next policy move. The latest inflation data is expected to be a major input for central bankers, in addition to producer price data and jobless claims on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,467.46, down 0.51%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,330.96, down 1% (406 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,029.10, up 0.02%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ally-financial-stock-price-plunges-cfo-says-consumer-pressures-intensifying-2024-9">Ally Financial plunged 19%</a> after its CFO said borrowers were struggling.</li><li>Here's why the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-record-high-price-prediction-wells-fargo-2024-9">stock market isn't hitting new highs anytime soon</a>, according to Wells Fargo.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-when-to-buy-home-prices-competition-supply-mortgage-2024-9?_gl=1*p58km6*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjA1OTM3MS4zMjkuMS4xNzI2MDYxMTAxLjU5LjAuMA..">The best week of the year to buy a home is coming up</a>.</li><li>Here's why <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">oil prices have cratered to their lowest level</a> in nearly 3 years.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 1.73% to $66.89 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, ticked higher 1.47% to $70.21 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 0.26% to $2,509.97 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield climbed two basis points to 3.667%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> inched higher 0.2% to $57,011.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Stocks fall as annual inflation slows but monthly CPI notches surprise increase

A unit of <keyword id="6437412" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Qatar-Investment-Authority" source="Orion">Qatar Investment Authority</keyword>, <keyword id="119583" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI-Mutual-Fund" source="Orion">SBI Mutual Fund</keyword>, and foreign investment funds <keyword id="6354527" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nomura" source="Orion">Nomura</keyword> and <keyword id="44473" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Citigroup" source="Orion">Citigroup</keyword> were the biggest buyers of shares in <keyword id="19955648" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Adani-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Group" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Group">Adani group</keyword>'s <keyword id="22661797" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="power-transmission-unit" source="Orion">power transmission unit</keyword>'s USD <keyword id="22661798" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="1-billion-QIP" source="Orion">1 billion QIP</keyword>, according to a stock exchange filing by the company. The Rs 8,373.10 crore (USD 1 billion) qualified institutional placement (QIP) of <keyword id="19964750" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adani-Energy-Solutions" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Adani Energy Solutions" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Adani Energy Solutions">Adani Energy Solutions</keyword> Ltd (AESL), which closed last week, saw over 120 investors seek shares in the firm that is into power transmission, distribution and smart metering business. Billionaire <keyword id="22623487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Stanley-Druckenmiller" source="keywords">Stanley Druckenmiller</keyword>'s family office-led investment firms were among the companies that sought shares of AESL in the QIP. AESL in the filing said its board has approved allocation of over 8.57 crore shares to eligible qualified institutional buyers at the issue price of Rs 976 per share, reflecting a discount of Rs 51.11 (4.98 per cent) to the floor price of Rs 1,027. Giving details of allottees who got more than 5 per cent of shares, it said INQ Holdings LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of QIA, cornered 15 per cent of the shares sold. Two Mauritius funds of Citigroup bought 8.88 per cent of the shares sold while four SBI funds - SBI Infrastructure Fund, SBI Large &amp; Midcap Fund, SBI Long term Advantage Fund Series IV and SBI Magnum Children's Benefit Fund - together took home 7.93 per cent of the shares. Nomura Singapore Ltd ODI cornered 7.5 per cent of the shares, the filing showed. INQ had in August last year acquired nearly 2.7 per cent in Adani Green Energy Ltd - the renewable energy firm of the conglomerate run by billionaire Gautam Adani. In 2020, it had acquired a stake in Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd, a subsidiary of AESL. The AESL QIP last week was oversubscribed six times and fetched demand of over Rs 50,000 crore against an issue size of USD 1 billion. <keyword id="22636516" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Duquesne-Family-Office" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Duquesne Family Office" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Duquesne Family Office">Duquesne Family Office</keyword> and two other US-based long-only funds - Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates - bought shares but AESL did not disclose the exact number of shares they bought since these were less than 5 per cent of the issue size, sources said. The QIP issue marked the debut of highly prestigious long-only investors Duquesne Family Office, Driehaus Capital Management and Jennison Associates which are known for their strong performance. These investors are known for investing only in companies with high governance and are known for staying invested for decades. The QIP was the first public equity raise by the conglomerate since a damning Hindenburg report last year wiped away billions in shareholder value. The demand generated made the AESL QIP the largest in the energy space. Duquesne was founded by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, who along with George Soros in 1992 broke the Bank of England by shorting the British pound, leading to its crash and earnings over a billion dollars. Adani Group has a history of introducing several long-only investors in the market. In the past years, it has brought large investors including GQG Partners and International Holding Company (IHC) besides QIA. Other major global names that participated in the QIP include Blackrock, Jupiter Asset Management, and Eastspring. Domestic mutual funds that have participated included HDFC Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund, Bandhan Mutual Fund, LIC, WhiteOak, 360One among others. Insurance companies including SBI Insurance, SBI Pension and ASK Asset Management have also participated, according to sources. QIP is an instrument used by listed companies to raise funds from large institutions. The fundraise is the first after Adani group's flagship firm scrapped a Rs 20,000 crore issue in February last year, following the Hindenburg report alleging accounting fraud and stock manipulation. Though the group vehemently and repeatedly denied all allegations, listed companies of the conglomerate at one point saw over USD 150 billion of their market value being wiped out. While the group has largely recovered, a successful QIP is being seen as a powerful vote of investor confidence in the tycoon. Separately, Adani Enterprises Ltd, the flagship firm of the group, is looking to revive its first-ever public sale of bonds. It plans to raise as much as Rs 600 crore. The company has hired Trust Investment Advisors, AK Capital Services and Nuvama Wealth Management as lead managers for the issuances. The group had tapped the dollar bond market in March this year - the first time since the Hindenburg report - when its solar energy unit Adani Green Energy Ltd and associated firms got bids of about USD 2.9 billion.

Qatar Investment Authority unit, SBI funds, Citigroup biggest buyers in Adani Energy's USD 1 billion QIP

Shares of state-owned behemoth Life Insurance Corporation (<keyword id="19903588" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="LIC" source="keywords">LIC</keyword>) have outperformed rivals like <keyword id="20079495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="HDFC-Life" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="HDFC Life" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="HDFC Life">HDFC Life</keyword> and <keyword id="21278696" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ICICI-Prudential-Life" source="keywords">ICICI Prudential Life</keyword>, as it placed bets on India's growth sectors, including infrastructure, while the private sector concentrated its bets on tech, consumer and consumer-related <keyword id="19910880" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BFSI" source="keywords">BFSI</keyword> companies. LIC's stock has gained nearly 79% from Rs 620 on June 18, 2023, to Rs 1,109.15 at the closing on Tuesday, according to stock exchange data. In contrast, HDFC Life gave a negative return with Tuesday's closing price of Rs 646.55 on the BSE as compared to Rs 666.55 a year back. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co delivered a return of 12%, considering its stock price rise from Rs 582 on June 18, 2023, to Rs 654.10 on June 16, 2024. Over the past one year, <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword> Life Insurance shares have risen from Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,621.20, delivering a return of 23%. Capital market analysts said <keyword id="19935977" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="insurance-companies" source="keywords">insurance companies</keyword> make money in two ways - charging premiums for policies and then investing the premiums into assets. It is the latter that generates the bigger delta in profits, thus impacting value creation and managing risks. Global majors, including Warren Buffet-owned Berkshire Hathaway, have been successful due to their ability to make superior investments. Most Indian insurance companies are yet to capitalise on the emergence of the country's <keyword id="19997284" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="infrastructure-sector" source="keywords">infrastructure sector</keyword>, analysts said. Indian insurance companies have concentrated investments in the BFSI, IT, and consumer sectors - all of which have been underperformers in the recent past. Only 8-10% of their investments are in the infrastructure sector. This is far less when compared to global standards. Large global insurance companies -- such as Allianz, Nippon Life Insurance, and Metlife, and other insurers like Berkshire Hathaway -- have much larger exposure ranging from 15 to 30% to the infrastructure sector, analysts noted. Over the past few years, global insurers have been increasingly considering infrastructure investments as 'core' investments as the stable and long-term cash flows of infrastructure assets naturally align with the liabilities of insurers. Additionally, infrastructure assets have defensive characteristics of high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, structural growth, and predictive cash flows, and listed infrastructure can provide investors with inflation-protected income and solid capital growth. <h2>Infra sector outperforming all</h2>For India, a strong government focus on the sector with large spending, supporting initiatives and encouraging policies, and improving governance has helped the infrastructure industry has come of age. This has helped the infra sector to outperform all other sectors, according to analysts. They said the high focus on retail loans, and the strategic reluctance to look at infrastructure for growth opportunities is proving detrimental for the shareholders of such companies. SBI, with its higher exposure to the infrastructure sector, has seen its stock gain 48% in the year (from Rs 592 to Rs 880.95 on Tuesday), while those of its private counterparts HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Bank have gained only in the range of (-)3%to 24%. Kotak and HDFC Banks with negligible exposure to the infrastructure sector are the worst performing, with their shares giving a negative return, stock exchange data showed. Kotak Mahindra Bank shares were at Rs 1,895 on June 18, 2023, and closed at Rs 1,805.20 on Tuesday. HDFC Bank closed at Rs 1,619.20 on BSE on Tuesday, down from Rs 1,679 a year back.

Exposure to India's infra sector helps LIC, SBI outshine peers

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Interest rates and stock returns are expected to decline, impacting investment strategies.</li><li>Historically, stocks and bonds have alternated in performance, affecting portfolio decisions.</li></ul>A diversified investing strategy means a split between stocks and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-a-bond">bonds</a>, at minimum. But for the better part of the last two decades, interest rates were near zero, and real returns in bonds were lacking.Still, investors added them to their portfolios because history has shown us that asset classes can zig and zag, with long <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-and-bond-market-correlation-normal-2014-2">periods of stock market outperformance</a> relative to bonds and intervals where that dynamic flipped.The last two years were great for both asset classes. Elevated rates put the bond market back on investors' minds, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> had a solid 26% total return. But depending on who you ask, the future may not be as bright.Yields will be less attractive as the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11#:~:text=The%20Fed%20cut%20interest%20rates,country%20recovered%20from%20the%20pandemic.">Fed begins its rate cuts</a> for this cycle. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects stock-market returns to be muted for the coming decade. The S&amp;P 500 is predicted to see a mere 3% annualized return over the next 10 years, which could lag the 10-year Treasury at an expected 4% yield, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-stock-market-returns-next-decade-goldman-sachs-2024-10">recent note</a> by the investment bank's chief US equity strategist David Kostin.If the bears are right, investors may be forced to take on more risk for returns. Sounds gloomy, but for bond traders like Mark Rieder, who has over two decades of experience in the sector, it could be an opportunity to dig for bargains in corporate credit.Generating alpha for a credit trader could mean beating a peer, a Bloomberg fixed income index that matches the category of bonds traded, or simply remaining in positive territory in terms of total returns when the market is down, Rieder told Business Insider."Over the past 10 years, when interest rates were very low, it was not an exciting time to be a credit analyst and a portfolio manager," Rieder said. "But it's much more interesting today, and I'm really excited about that."However, active debt investing takes a good level of skill and consistent effort to make the right credit selection, according to his new book, "Reminiscences of a Bond Operator." Like the stock-picking process, following the crowd or consensus won't result in alpha. A credit trader must conduct the same level of fundamental analysis and dig into a company's balance sheet, earnings calls, 10Qs, and 10Ks, among other things, to determine valuation."I've always believed that a good credit analyst is also a really good equity analyst because you really need to understand the capital structure of the companies that you're evaluating and all of their different needs," Rieder said. "Most companies want to have their stock price go up, and so as a credit analyst, you need to understand that so that you can understand what their motivations are."It's especially important now, as the credit space faces its own set of challenges. Like the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/are-we-in-a-recession">business cycle</a>, credit has its booms and busts based on macro conditions and supply and demand. In a strong economic environment, corporate cash flows rise, and companies increase borrowing with favorable lending terms. But when times are tight, companies deleverage until their debt is less than their cash flow. Once that equilibrium is satisfied, more borrowing ensues, according to his book.Rieder said credit is in the boom part of the cycle. This might sound surprising, considering debt has been expensive for the better part of the last two years. But most companies were locked into low yields before rates rose, he noted. As debt turnover increases, investors need to be cautious."There's a lag impact on the increase in rates. Most companies borrow for long periods of time, five years, 10 years," Rieder said. "A lot of companies issued debt when interest rates were very low. They're now only starting to refinance that low-coupon debt. That, in turn, is what causes an impact."He doesn't expect that the Fed's cutting cycle will mitigate the crunch. The central bank can impact front-end yields, but the back end is driven by additional considerations, he noted. The 10-year rose to 4.3% shortly after the first rate cut of September, a signal that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-election-forecast-most-accurate-economist-predicts-outcome-economic-impact-2024-10">investors were looking ahead</a> at other economic risk factors, including concerns over the government's ballooning deficit, he added. Additionally, economic conditions such as elevated credit card debt pose concerns for future corporate profits.<h2 id="101d0bc7-10c7-46f9-a758-eea160588283">Trading credit</h2>Right now, investment-grade credit spreads are tight. The yields in corporate bonds aren't much higher than in government bonds, meaning less compensation for more risk. But if we move from the boom to the bust phase, credit spreads could widen, and that could create opportunities in the credit space, he said.While spreads are tight, he prefers front-end yield or pairing trades with cheap optionality. The cost of shorting a credit index like the CDX Investment Grade 5-Year Index, a credit-default-swap index that tracks the credit risk of large US investment-grade companies, is low. And since spreads are trading at historically tight levels, it's less likely to get much lower, which could limit potential losses, he said. This position can then be paired with a trade expected to perform positively.An example he provides of a market-neutral pair trade could look like buying a corporate bond in a sector with structural tailwinds, such as a natural gas producer set to benefit from increased demand and rising energy prices, or airplane lessors who benefit from higher lease rates due to a tight aircraft supply — a situation that's unlikely to ease in the near term because of production challenges faced by manufacturers. Then, take a short position in an interest-rate future to hedge against the bond's interest-rate risk."This trade works if natural gas prices remain stable or rise, leading the energy bond to outperform the overall corporate bond market," Rieder said. "It's an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the current tight credit spread conditions and complacency in the overall credit market."Having liquidity can also give you an upper hand. As spreads widen, investors may be forced into selling higher-quality credit because they can't offload the lower-quality ones, he said."There are huge opportunities in credit if you remain liquid during dislocations," Rieder said. "Other investors are going to be looking for liquidity. They can't sell what they want to, so they sell what they can, and that can lead to opportunities to buy cheap assets."

A veteran bond operator shares an alpha-generating strategy for dropping yields and muted stock-market returns

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Walmart stock has soared 58% this year to record highs, making its founding family richer than ever.</li><li>Retail legend Sam Walton's three surviving children are each worth more than $100 billion.</li></ul>Walmart stock has soared to record highs, lifting the retailer's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/life-of-the-walton-family-behind-walmart-and-sams-club-2018-12">founding family</a> to new levels of wealth. Experts say its signature strategy has fueled the stellar run, and they're not surprised to see the Waltons reap the rewards.Shares of Walmart have jumped 58% this year to about $83, valuing the company at nearly $670 billion at Wednesday's close. The stock surge has added more than $32 billion to the fortunes of each of founder Sam Walton's three surviving children — Jim, Rob, and Alice.The siblings rank among the world's 20 wealthiest people and have net worths <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wealth-billionaires-musk-bezos-zuckerberg-net-worth-jensen-huang-waltoans-2024-8">in excess of $100 billion</a>, per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Together they're <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walton-family-wealth-walmart-record-stock-billionaires-retail-rich-list-2024-8">far richer than Elon Musk</a>, who tops the rich list with a $237 billion net worth.Walmart generated $643 billion in net sales and $27 billion in operating income last year. The Sam's Club owner has about 10,500 stores worldwide and employs around 2.1 million people, including almost 1.6 million in the US — roughly 1% of the workforce.The megaretailer and its biggest shareholders owe much of their success to selling everyday products at low prices, David King, the Higdon Professor of Management at Florida State University and the coauthor of a 2017 case study on Walmart, told Business Insider.Value for money is top of mind for many shoppers, who've been hit in recent years by higher prices for basics such as food, fuel, and housing, and higher monthly payments on their credit cards, car loans, mortgages, and other debts.Inflation skyrocketed to a 40-year high of more than 9% in mid-2022 and remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target in September. The central bank sought to curb the pace of price growth by raising interest rates to above 5% between March 2022 and July 2023, and only made its first cut this September.<h2 id="2abcc6e7-15b4-464c-9f4e-c778b703cf0f">Logistics network</h2>Walmart also benefits from ubiquity, with 90% of the US population living within 10 miles of one of its stores, according to its website. The retailer has steadily expanded by entering smaller markets that could only support one large retailer — limiting competition — then using its scale economies to undercut mom-and-pop stores and drive them out of business, King said.The company has also built a national logistics network to support its growing store count and thus bolster its purchasing power, enabling it to negotiate ever-lower prices from suppliers and offer greater value and convenience to customers, King added. He noted that Walmart and its associated businesses accounted for 16% of Procter &amp; Gamble's sales last year.Art Weinstein, a marketing professor at Nova Southeastern University in Florida who's published academic research on Walmart, attributed its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://businessinsider.com/walmart-finding-groove-should-terrify-target-2024-5">success</a> to similar factors.He told BI the stock's outperformance reflects inflationary pressures and investors perceiving Walmart as a "safe investment in troubling world markets."Weinstein credited Sam Walton's philosophy of centering the customer plus the company's low prices, one-stop shopping experience, supply chain expertise, strong partnerships with suppliers, vast scale in grocery retailing, and innovations such as the Walmart+ subscription program.<div type="image" title="exterior of a walmart" height="3109" width="4664" msid="114543373" hostid="261" sizebytes="626096"></div><h2 id="c237c42e-eee2-4359-abf8-7b50afd3e99c">Family fortunes</h2>Sam Walton shrewdly structured his fledgling company as a family partnership in 1953, giving 20% stakes to each of his four children. Put differently, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walton-family-sam-walmart-stock-billionaires-estate-planning-inheritance-wealth-2024-8">handed 80% of Walmart to his kids</a> when it was worth next to nothing, sparing them from paying billions of dollars in estate taxes to inherit his stock after he died in 1992.King told BI he wasn't surprised to see the Waltons near the top of a rich list dominated by technology bosses like Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg."Walmart is a family firm that is in its second generation, or the initial value created by Sam Walton has not been split across multiple heirs," King said.The late John T. Walton's son, Lukas Walton, ranks in the top 50 of Bloomberg's wealth index with a nearly $37 billion fortune. But it's true the vast majority of the family fortune remains in the hands of Sam Walton's children."Wealth rarely lasts past the grandchildren or three generations, as the number of heirs in the third generation increases and they are used to living wealthy," King said.The management professor added that the Waltons have retained more of the company over the years because Walmart, unlike many tech companies, has largely self-financed its scaling."The wealth is more concentrated, because Walmart used mostly internal growth that funded expansion from revenues," he said. "In contrast, tech billionaires are more dependent on external investors to scale up, giving more ownership to investors, versus founders."<h2 id="3dfe9f76-de5b-4d2b-86f2-4207e3cf2b49">$100 billion club</h2>Weinstein, the marketing professor, also told BI he wasn't surprised to see the Waltons in the $100 billion club, as the US stock market rewards strong business performance.Tech firms and founders are "generally the most high-profile wealth creators as it is easier to scale online companies which benefit from the network effect, and tech firms may be perceived as sexier, more interesting, and revolutionary," he said, giving Musk's empire of businesses including Tesla and SpaceX as an example."Walmart's success takes largely a different path by truly mastering the daily business fundamentals," Weinstein added.Yet he ticked off several threats to Walmart. It faces <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-fulfilment-creating-pressure-for-amazon-wells-fargo-says-2024-10">competition</a> from local rivals like Amazon and Target, as well as Chinese upstarts such as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-do-shein-temu-and-amazon-compare-2023-8">Temu and Shein</a>.The company might struggle to find talent when it's already the largest employer in the US, and bagging great executives could be tough when top graduates tend to prefer management consulting and tech gigs. Retail's long working days and weekend shifts are also a "turn-off for many excellent employees," he said."One potential concern is that Walmart attracts older customers," he added. "Will their products and stores <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-tiktok-attracts-gen-z-shoppers-2020-1">appeal</a> to millennial and Gen Z shoppers going forward?"

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