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Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nvidia's stock rally has another 12-18 months left to go, according to S&amp;P Global's Andrew Chang.</li><li>The stock has at least another year of "strong runaway" amid big demand for its chips, Chang said.</li></ul>Nvidia stock has a lot more room to climb — and shares of the market's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-earnings-party-investors-cult-investing-memes-2024-9">most popular chip maker</a> are bound to soar for at least another year, according to Andrew Chang, a technology director at S&amp;P Global Ratings.The banking veteran pointed to recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-taiwan-tsmc-jensen-huang-china-disruption-2024-9">comments from Jensen Huang</a>, who sparked a sharp rally in NVDA shares this week after speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco. The Nvidia CEO issued more guidance on consumer demand and, in particular, demand for Blackwell, the company's next-gen GPU.His comments bolster predictions of continued upside for Nvidia, Chang said in an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FnQmDld9gA">Schwab Network</a> on Friday."It just confirms our view that we have strong runway for at least the next 12 months," Chang said.Nvidia's partners are also showing signs of strong chip demand. Oracle, which has an ongoing partnership with Nvidia, bumped up its revenue forecasts after beating earnings for the first quarter. The software firm also doubled its planned capital expenditures for the fiscal year — which are all bullish signs for Nvidia."All of these are great data points that, at least for the next 12 to 18 months, things look great," Chang said of the Jensen Huang-led firm.Still, he acknowledged some concerns investors have been airing. Some have floated worries that Nvidia's growth is unsustainable, given the stock's monster 2,514% gain over the last five years.Some analysts have warned demand for Nvidia's chips may not hold strong in the coming years, as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-prediction-artificial-intelligence-chips-gpu-earnings-report-2024-5">the firm's largest customers could eventually turn into competitors</a>. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-working-on-its-own-ai-chip-for-data-centers-wsj-1033340339?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-making-ai-chips-to-compete-with-aws-documents-confirm-2023-6?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*13d1ns4*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNjI0ODk5Ni4zNDEuMS4xNzI2MjQ5Mzk1LjMyLjAuMA..">Microsoft</a>, two huge customers of Nvidia's GPUs, are reportedly working on their own AI chips."Ultimately, if Oracle, if Microsoft, if Amazon don't see the ROI that they expect, they're going to cut orders. So hyperscale, demand volatility is something that really concerns us," Chang said. "But, you know, these data center players have been known to order a bunch and then pause for several quarters. That's what we're looking out for."Investors will also need to be on the lookout for tighter regulation of AI. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doj-subpoena-nvidia-antitrust-investigation-heats-up-report-2024-9">Nvidia was recently targeted</a> by the Department of Justice in a fresh antitrust probe, Bloomberg reported, and it's just a "matter of time" before other countries follow suit and try to regulate the technology, Chang said.Nvidia stock sold off in the weeks following its earnings report at the end of August, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/oracle-nvidia-help-revive-stock-markets-ai-trade-this-week-2024-9">but the stock staged a fresh rally this week</a> alongside other tech stalwarts including Oracle and Super Micro Computer. Wall Street remains generally bullish on Nvidia. According to Nasdaq data, analysts have issued an average price target of $153 a share, implying a 29% upside from current levels.

Nvidia stock can climb for the next 12 months, S&P Global analyst says

India's corporate credit landscape is showing positive trends that are expected to persist, according to a recent report by <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword>. The report highlights strengthening credit quality across various sectors, driven by enhanced <keyword id="20994126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-discipline" source="keywords">financial discipline</keyword>, broad-based <keyword id="19899597" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="earnings-growth" source="keywords">earnings growth</keyword>, and robust liquidity profiles. S&amp;P Global's analysis reveals that one in three ratings within India now shows a positive outlook, marking a significant shift after three years of net positive rating actions. The report indicates that corporate India has built greater resilience against downside risks, reflecting a more stable and robust credit environment. However, corporate leverage in India is expected to decline marginally, even as capital expenditure (capex) rises by 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels. This improvement is attributed to more entrenched financial discipline among companies, which have managed to balance rising capex with prudent financial management. The report forecasts a 10% growth in aggregate EBITDA in 2024, driven by strong performance in sectors such as telecommunications, airports, commodities, and chemicals. This broad-based earnings growth underscores the resilience of corporate India and its ability to generate substantial cash flows despite a challenging global environment. Indian companies are benefiting from strong onshore liquidity and the absence of large debt maturities, which support their liquidity profiles. The resilience of these companies to foreign exchange and interest rate volatility further strengthens their liquidity positions. Corporate India's positive credit trends are closely linked to broader economic drivers such as GDP growth. Increased consumer spending is bolstering sectors like airports, automobiles, and telecommunications. Meanwhile, infrastructure investment is significantly boosting the commodities, utilities, and commercial automotive sectors. S&amp;P Global notes that both infrastructure and non-infrastructure sectors are experiencing reductions in leverage, with absolute debt reduction more pronounced in non-infrastructure sectors. However, infrastructure entities are slower in reducing debt due to higher capex, particularly in energy transition initiatives. Operating cash flows across sectors are outpacing capex, supporting further deleveraging. While capex intensity remains higher in infrastructure sectors, the neutral free operating cash flow is seen as a positive trend, indicating that companies are managing their capital expenditures efficiently while maintaining cash flows. The transportation infrastructure sector is benefiting from traffic growth and tariff increases, with rising cargo volumes supporting port revenues and improved operating efficiencies boosting margins. Airports are also experiencing higher traffic levels and tariff increases, contributing to better operating cash flows and overall credit quality. In the utilities sector, rising demand and new capacity are driving earnings growth, though capex remains high, particularly for energy transition projects. The steel sector is expected to see increased operating cash flow due to falling input prices and new capacity additions. Earnings in the oil and gas sector are expected to remain stable, supported by a favorable price outlook and consistent production levels. The telecom sector is also on a path to significant deleveraging, with capex expected to moderate following the 5G auctions in 2023. The auto sector is witnessing sustained operating performance as volumes stabilize after the supply chain disruptions of 2022. S&amp;P Global notes that debt levels in the auto sector are expected to remain low following sharp deleveraging, while normalized growth in auto sales and stable margins support the sector's positive outlook. In the chemicals sector, falling input costs and stabilized product prices are expected to drive earnings recovery following a downturn in 2023. Improved signals show a broader trend of recovery across various industrial sectors in India. S&amp;P Global concludes that with the highest proportion of positive credit outlooks in the region, India's corporate sector is well-positioned for continued <keyword id="22758432" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-quality-improvement" source="keywords">credit quality improvement</keyword>. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/saraswati-saree-depot-ipo-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/112457330.cms" target="_blank">Saraswati Saree Depot IPO – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/indias-wearables-market-decline-for-the-first-time-as-smartwatch-shipments-fall/articleshow/112397246.cms" target="_blank">India’s wearables market decline for the first time as smartwatch shipments fall</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/ola-wants-to-re-enter-the-quick-commerce-business-to-take-on-blinkit-and-swiggy-instamart/articleshow/112364583.cms" target="_blank">Ola wants to re-enter the quick commerce business to take on Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart</a>

India's corporate credit quality is getting stronger: S&P Global

The <keyword id="20150760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market-Intelligence" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence">S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence</keyword> has upwardly revised <keyword id="22162557" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="GDP-forecasts" source="keywords">GDP forecasts</keyword> for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> in its latest report. But even with the revised forecast, China's GDP growth will be substantially lower than that of <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. According to S&amp;P, India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 6.7 per cent in 2024 and 6.3 per cent in 2025. In contrast, China's <keyword id="19931030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economy" source="keywords">economy</keyword> is now forecasted to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2024 and forecast moderately raised to 4.6 per cent from 4.5 per cent. The agency revised China's estimate due to policy tailwinds expected to extend into next year and a gradual improvement in private-sector sentiment within the country. However, the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) in its monetary policy has raised the GDP forecast of India from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY25. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, "The real GDP growth for the current financial year 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.3 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." RBI Governor further said that, "The GDP growth projection, we have increased it from 7 per cent to 7.2 per cent and the inflation projection, the average for the year, we have retained it at 4.5 per cent as it was in the last MPC meeting." The <keyword id="22162558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Market" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global Market</keyword> Intelligence however has lowered the growth forecasts of US, Canada, Brazil, and Japan for 2024, while it has revised upward the forecasts for China, the Eurozone, the UK, and Russia. Additionally, the <keyword id="22162559" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-growth-forecast" source="keywords">global growth forecast</keyword> for 2025 has edged up from 2.7 per cent to 2.8 per cent, with higher forecasts for some of the larger countries, including the US and China. Regarding Japan, the agency maintains that the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan is most likely to occur in October 2024, given the economic and inflationary headwinds. In the Asia-Pacific region, the agency predicts that real GDP growth, excluding mainland China and Japan, will remain broadly stable at 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025, driven by robust domestic demand and recovering exports. A pickup in overseas demand is seen as the key growth driver for the region in 2024.

S&P Global Market raised growth forecast of China, still significantly lower than India

Recognising the impact of <keyword id="20181892" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digitisation" source="keywords">digitisation</keyword> in the country, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> Ratings said that the state-backed <keyword id="20327350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-initiatives" source="keywords">digital initiatives</keyword> will underpin a tripling of <keyword id="22663033" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-retail-borrowing" source="keywords">Indian retail borrowing</keyword> by 2030, lifting Indian households' debt to about USD 2.5 trillion or about 34 per cent of GDP. "Digital Initiatives Could Triple India's <keyword id="20971681" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-lending" source="keywords">Retail Lending</keyword> By 2030," noted that technology has already boosted India's <keyword id="21807459" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-inclusivity" source="keywords">financial inclusivity</keyword>, lifting basic savings account ownership to about 77 per cent, up from 35 per cent in 2011. India's micro-loan borrowers have an average Indian rupee of 35,156 (about USD 400) of borrowing according to the National Bank For Agriculture And Rural Development (NABARD), the rating agency cited in its report. The growth in retail lending could include an even faster increase in <keyword id="22663034" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="micro-loans" source="keywords">micro-loans</keyword>, primarily to previously excluded low-income earners, with such loans potentially accounting for about 7 per cent of household debt by 2030, the rating agency said. The report further underscored the significance of the digitisation process in the country saying that it has enabled mass access to savings accounts and digital payments. However, it said that the penetration of credit is still underwhelming, adding that just 12 per cent of Indians over the age of 15 had borrowed from a <keyword id="22663279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="formal-financial-institution" source="keywords">formal financial institution</keyword> before 2021. This is less than half the global average of 28 per cent, as per the report. "Borrowing from formal financial institutions among lower earners is even less frequent, meaning many households have little access to capital for investment that might help them escape poverty and, in turn, support India's long-term economic growth, the report added. The S&amp;P also noted that improved digital payment infrastructure is helping lenders collect payments, reducing barriers to lending-market competition. "We expect that will strengthen India's economy and provide growth opportunities for the financial sector, " It added. The report further underscored the significance of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar, and Mobile penetration. Going forward, the report hailed the leading position of banks in retail lending. "Tech-savvy private sector banks and finance companies are leading the growth in retail lending. Finance companies are the dominant player in mass-market loans, accounting for 70 per cent to 85 per cent of loan origination for commercial vehicles, small ticket personal loans, consumer durables, and two-wheel vehicles," the report said which was released earlier this week. Additionally, the finance companies had a market share of about 40 per cent in affordable housing loans, as of September 2022, according to the report. The global rating agency observed that finance companies and small finance banks are leading the microfinance segment, which is playing a key role in improving financial inclusion for India's unbanked and underbanked. The total value of microloans has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 per cent for the last three years and now accounts for about 2 per cent of total loans, the report said citing the figures of Equifax, an American multinational consumer credit reporting agency.

Digital initiatives to triple Indian retail borrowing to USD 2.5 trillion by 2030: S&P Global

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s world record beating <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> rate together with robust tax revenues, a fast expanding digital and financial <keyword id="19916864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="infrastructure" source="keywords">infrastructure</keyword> and a strong manufacturing sector will give the new <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> a base for unleashing next generation <keyword id="19900768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reforms" source="keywords">reforms</keyword> that may make the country a <keyword id="19953418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="developed-nation" source="keywords">developed nation</keyword> by 2047. The new government will however have to tackle with problems like unemployment and rural distress, which seemed to have played a major role in voting pattern in states like Uttar Pradesh, while also keeping inflation under control. Given that no party, including BJP, have a clear majority of its own, tough reforms like big ticket privatisation and labour law reforms may take a backseat. As per the available trends, BJP is likely to win about 240 seats in a 543- member <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword>. It would have to rely on its allies like TDP and JDU to form the next government. The new government will have to build upon the 8.2 per cent <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> recorded in 2023-24 and carry on with the reforms to make India a USD 5 trillion economy in the next couple of years and a developed nation by 2047. Policy experts are unanimous in their view that the government is likely to continue its focus on infrastructure-led growth, investor-friendly policies, enabling reforms, and facilitating ease of doing business. Last week, <keyword id="20070868" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global-Ratings" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global Ratings" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global Ratings">S&amp;P Global Ratings</keyword> had said that historically India has been on a high growth path with national consensus on key economic policies. "No matter who the incoming government is, the pro-growth policies, sustained infrastructure investments, the drive to reduce fiscal deficit -- these things have produced very good outcomes and we believe this will continue in the coming years no matter who is in charge," S&amp;P Global Ratings Analyst YeeFarn Phua said. EY India Chief policy advisor DK Srivastava said the Aatmanirbhar strategy, especially focusing on knowledge intensive employment generating and strategic manufacturing, will serve India well in the long run while providing scope for increasing both services and goods exports. "The new government will find a solid foundation of the economy, ready to take off with the objective of fulfilling India's aim of becoming 'viksit' in the next 25 years," Srivastava said. Under the Modi government's 10-year tenure India has become the fifth largest economy, from 11th globally, shaking off its image as a "fragile" economy prior to 2014. The new government will have its eyes set on taking India among the top three economies in the world. The target is "more likely" to be realised by 2027-28 fiscal, according to 16th Finance Commission Chairman Arvind Panagariya. Currently, the size of the Indian economy is USD 3.7 trillion and it is expected to become USD 7 trillion by 2030. RBI has projected a 7 per cent growth rate for the current fiscal. Deloitte South Asia CEO Romal Shetty said India is firmly on the growth trajectory as the world's fastest-growing economy and a key player in the global supply chain. "With the new government, we expect second-generation reforms driven by technology to make India a global hub of innovation and a thriving digital economy. We must further accelerate reforms to strengthen ease of doing business, boost inbound investment, and solidify India's position as the top destination for GCCs (global capability centres) and high-tech manufacturing, with a focus on jobs," Shetty said. In fact, reflecting the buoyant sentiments S&amp;P Global Ratings last week upgraded India's outlook to positive, from stable, and said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in next 1-2 years if the government continues reforms and adheres to the path of fiscal consolidation. Last week, Moody's Ratings also said it expects policy continuity after the general election and continued focus on infrastructure development. Nangia Andersen India Chairman Rakesh Nangia said the investors' community expects continued policy reforms, particularly in labour laws and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. "Investors are also keen on prudent fiscal management, focusing on reducing the fiscal deficit while promoting growth through strategic investments. This combination of reforms and fiscal discipline is expected to create a favourable environment for sustained economic growth and increased investor confidence," Nangia said. Nangia further said that investors are also eager to see a further simplification of India's regulatory framework, more transparent and predictable policies that can enhance the ease of doing business. "This regulatory clarity is crucial for attracting more Foreign Direct Investment (<keyword id="19946824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FDI" source="keywords">FDI</keyword>) and positioning India as a key manufacturing hub driven by supply chain diversification. In recent years, there has been substantial FDI inflow into sectors such as manufacturing, computer services, and renewable energy, reflecting India's growing appeal as a destination for global investment," Nangia said.

New govt to inherit strong economy, focus on making India developed nation by 2047

<ul class="summary-list"><li>European stocks are pricing in a Trump win, Barclays said.</li><li>Exporters have underperformed the broader European market by 15% since spring.</li></ul>With the US election less than two weeks away, European stocks have already been pricing in a Donald Trump victory, according to Barclays.The firm noted that a basket of European exporters — or those companies most vulnerable to tariffs — has underperformed the benchmark European Stoxx 600 by 15% since early spring.Barclays says this is reflective of investors preemptively bracing for Trump's tariff policy, which has been a cornerstone of his presidential-election platform, under the expectation he will win.<div type="image" title="Barclays chart showing how stocks exposed to tariffs have underperformed the broader index" height="1670" width="2136" msid="114514786" hostid="261" sizebytes="87238"></div>"Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities' relative performance year-to-date," Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote on Wednesday. "In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany, Italy, Cap Goods, Autos, Beverages, Tech, Chemicals most at risk."Barclays did note that some European firms have relocated production to the US since 2018, which could somewhat limit the impact of Trump's trade policy on the whole market. But it's still worried about the possible side effects."The second-order impact through lower growth and higher inflation (i.e. stagflation) could be more severe, in particular in the case of retaliation and a trade war," Barclays wrote.The US will also feel the impact. The firm forecasts Trump tariffs will be a 3.2% drag on S&amp;P 500 earnings-per-share next year, with the most negative impact affecting materials, discretionary, industrials, technology, and healthcare. Beyond that, retaliatory measures would generate an additional 1.5% hit to forward EPS.The note suggested a possible rebound for Europe's markets if Kamala Harris wins. Her policy would also boost clean and renewables in the region, which have also underperformed on the chances of a Trump win.

One global market is already pricing in a Trump victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks fell, ending a six-week win streak for S&amp;P 500 and the Dow.</li><li>Rising bond yields and resilient economic data contributed to the market's pause.</li></ul>US stocks traded mostly lower on Friday, capping off a down week for the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Both averages ended a six-week win streak on Friday, while a rally in mega-cap tech stocks helped fuel a seventh week of gains and a fresh record high for the Nasdaq. A big surge in bond yields this week served as a big hurdle for investors following a strong rally since the start of the month.The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged nearly 20 basis points this week as macro data points suggest the economy remains resilient and on solid footing.Meanwhile, investors are paying close attention to third-quarter earnings results, with a number of mega-cap tech companies set to report results next week, including Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.Commentary surrounding AI monetization trends will be top of mind for investors when they parse through the earnings reports."We expect big tech earnings next week will display a mix of steady operational performance, AI-led revenue acceleration, and resilient advertising that signals ongoing health and innovation," Global X research analyst Ido Caspi told Business Insider."We expect to see further evidence of generative AI moving along its growth curve and continued shift from experimentation to widespread monetization," he added.So far, 36% of S&amp;P 500 companies have reported results. Of those companies, 79% are beating profit estimates by a median of 6%, while 58% are beating revenue estimates by a median of 2%, according to data from Fundstrat.Traders next week will sift through several economic data updates, including September personal consumption expenditures, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, as well as the October jobs report. September's data showed a stunning 254,000 jobs were added in the month.A similarly hot number would likely temper rate-cut expectations further as markets see less urgency from the Fed to prop up the economy.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,808.12, down 0.03% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,114.40, down 0.61% (-256.96 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,518.61, up 0.56%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-market-cap-apple-most-valuable-company-nvda-2024-10">Nvidia briefly dethroned Apple</a> as the largest company in the world on Friday.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nuclear-power-stocks-ai-energy-oklo-smr-nuscale-cameco-bwxt-2024-10">Nuclear power stocks are soaring</a> amid an AI energy rush. </li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/versace-parent-stock-plunged-after-affordable-luxury-deal-blocked-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Versace parent Capri's stock plunged</a> after a judge shot down a merger deal between the company and Coach owner Tapestry.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-brics-russia-putin-us-dollar-payments-kazan-declaration-currency-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Vladimir Putin tempered expectations</a> for de-dollarization at a BRICS summit.</li><li><a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-3q-earnings-growth-stock-price-outlook-credits-jpmorgan-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">JPMorgan said</a> some drivers of Tesla's earnings look unsustainable.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.19% to $71.73 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.11% to $75.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.30% to $2,757.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.246%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> was lower by 1.83% to $66,914.</li></ul>

Stock market today: S&P 500 ends 6-week win streak, while Nasdaq rises on mega-cap rally

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Tariffs on China are inflationary, and could slow US GDP growth in the near-term, S&amp;P Global said.</li><li>They say this has the potential to delay Fed rate cuts, as prices take longer to disinflate.</li></ul>US efforts to counterbalance Chinese imports could instead create unsteadiness in the country's fight against inflation, <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/rising-trade-protectionism-poses-silent-threat-to-us-inflation-fight-81861425" target="_blank" rel="noopener">S&amp;P Global Intelligence</a> wrote. In fact, Washington's embrace of tariffs on foreign goods could risk delaying long-awaited interest-rate cuts, in the event it forces the Federal Reserve to keep policy higher for longer, the ratings agency said.Tariff policies have gained fresh attention in recent months, especially with the US presidential election drawing closer. In order to protect domestic industry, both candidates have embraced protection, with former president Donald Trump going as far as pledging a 10% universal tariff on all US imports, if elected. As for China, he plans a 60% rate.Though President Biden's policies are less broad-based, his administration hasn't shied away from protectionist tactics, either. Not only has Biden kept most of Trump's previous trade restrictions on China intact, he's recently announced new duties on Beijing's technological exports — from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-joe-biden-hikes-tariffs-on-chinese-made-evs-2024-5">electric vehicles to solar products</a>. "Yet economists say the new duties, and tariffs more broadly, may carry an unwelcome consequence: higher prices and a heightened probability of higher-for-longer interest rates," S&amp;P wrote. "While the Fed is expected to slightly lower benchmark rates this year from their current decades-long high, higher tariffs are likely to feed through to higher prices, complicating central bankers' decisions." As of right now, Biden's proposed tariffs will target only a small scope of China's industry, going into effect through 2024 to 2026. Of the 14 categories under scrutiny, the top five accounted for just 3% of Chinese imports into the US in 2022, S&amp;P cited.But for domestic manufacturers, tariffs can ease the pressure to lower prices, as Chinese competitors lose their low-cost advantage. In this sense, protectionism can boost economic growth in the long run, but not before fueling market inefficiencies and complicating inflation."Global supply chains have developed to how they are today to take advantage of efficiencies in production. This keeps world and US GDP higher and prices lower than would exist without globalization and trade," S&amp;P's senior US economist Ben Herzon said in the report.What's more, these tariffs have the potential to dent US growth, the agency estimates. Currently, GDP is expected to rise by 2.49% this year, just below last year's 2.54% gain.Other analysts have voiced the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-economic-outlook-recession-inflation-china-tariffs-biden-president-election-2024-3">same concerns</a>, especially if Trump's blanket tariffs take effect. By one estimate, his proposal could cost <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-china-tariffs-taxes-us-economy-deficit-impact-2024-5">US consumers $500 billion a year</a>.

Tariffs on China could end up making inflation worse and hurting US economic growth, S&P Global says

In a landmark moment for Indian equities, the benchmark <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> surged past the 84,000 mark for the first time, closing at a <keyword id="19953076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high" source="keywords">record high</keyword> of 84,544.31 on Friday. This impressive rally, fueled by gains in frontline <keyword id="20193591" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-stocks" source="keywords">bank stocks</keyword> and positive global trends, signals a buoyant sentiment in both domestic and international markets. The Sensex climbed 1,359.51 points, or 1.63%, while the NSE <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> followed suit, gaining 375.15 points or 1.48%, closing at a record 25,790.95. The intra-day highs saw the Sensex touching 84,694.46 and the Nifty peaking at 25,849.25. Mahindra &amp; Mahindra led the rally with a gain of over 5%, while other top performers included ICICI Bank, JSW Steel, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and Nestlé. <h3> </h3><h3>Top gainers and losers</h3>While the overall market was in an uptrend, sectoral performances varied. Nifty Auto, Metal, Real Estate, Power, Capital Goods, FMCG, Consumer Durables, and Bank Nifty saw minor gains. However, sectors like IT, Telecom, Oil &amp; Gas, and Pharma lagged behind. Notably, Nifty IT emerged as the top sectoral loser, with a drop of over 3%, weighed down by losses in major IT firms such as TCS, which fell 5.1%. Within the Nifty, ICICI Bank led the gains with a 7.8% surge, followed by Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (+7.4%) and Nestlé (+6.5%). On the losing end, TCS (-5.1%), Grasim Industries (-4.1%), and BPCL (-2.8%) faced pressure. Foreign and domestic institutional investors were net buyers, providing further momentum to the market. The Volatility Index, India VIX, rose by 2.24%, signaling a slight uptick in market uncertainty but not enough to dampen the bullish sentiment. <h3>Global cues propelling the bull run</h3>Analysts attribute the rally to a combination of domestic strength and global optimism, particularly the recent 50 basis points rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy has reignited confidence in global markets, with foreign inflows expected to increase, bolstering Indian equities in the short to medium term. Asian markets, including Seoul, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, all closed in the green, adding to the positive momentum. In contrast, European equity markets showed some weakness, while the U.S. markets continued their upward trend, with the Dow and S&amp;P 500 reaching new highs. "The U.S. markets, led by the Dow and S&amp;P 500, setting record highs is a testament to the ongoing global bull run. Indian markets are benefiting from this, as global liquidity and optimism remain strong," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. "Unemployment data, along with the Fed’s half-point rate cut has bolster investors’ sentiment in the US. Initial jobless claims, which came in at 219,000 for the week of Sept. 14, were lower than expected and showed a decline from the prior week. In Europe, investors digested a slew of central bank rate decisions this week and their impact on the global economy," says Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. <h3>Bullish momentum intact, but caution ahead</h3>From a technical perspective, the Sensex and Nifty are showing strong bullish momentum. The Nifty closed above the key resistance of 25,600, signaling further upside potential toward the 25,900-26,000 range. However, traders should keep an eye on the short-term profit booking, as indicated by the formation of a Shooting Star-like candlestick pattern near the index’s all-time high. Immediate support for the Nifty stands at 25,500, with additional support levels at 25,300 and 25,120, according to technical analysts. As long as the Nifty remains above 25,600, a "Buy on Dips" strategy is advisable for traders. However, if it falls below 25,620, a "Sell on Rise" approach might be more prudent. "The recent surge in major indices, particularly the high beta index BankNifty, indicates a favorable shift in market dynamics. It is recommended to capitalize on the upward momentum by taking profits, rather than adopting an aggressive stance in the overbought territory," says Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst - Technical &amp; Derivatives, Angel One Ltd. <h3>What's next for the markets?</h3>As markets head into uncharted territory, the focus will shift to key macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, geopolitical concerns, and global economic trends. While the current rally is underpinned by strong global cues and positive domestic sentiment, market participants are advised to remain cautious in the face of potential volatility. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, emphasized the need for a balanced approach: “While the 50 bps Fed rate cut is undoubtedly positive, markets should remain mindful of evolving global conditions. In the short term, foreign inflows will boost the market, but longer-term prospects depend on the global economic landscape.” As the market rally continues, the challenge will be to maintain momentum while navigating potential headwinds, including global oil price fluctuations—Brent crude settled slightly lower at USD 74.71 per barrel, a dip of 0.23%. With the Sensex and Nifty scaling new heights, the mood on Dalal Street remains optimistic, driven by a combination of domestic strength and global tailwinds. But as always, market participants should keep their strategies flexible and be prepared for any shifts in sentiment. (With inputs from PTI) SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/arkade-developers-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113493854.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/arkade-developers-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113493854.cms" target="_blank">Arkade Developers IPO allotment – Check allotment status, GMP, listing date and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/western-carriers-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113511375.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/western-carriers-ipo-allotment-how-to-check-allotment-ipo-gmp-listing-date-and-more/articleshow/113511375.cms" target="_blank">Western Carriers IPO allotment – How to check allotment, IPO GMP, listing date and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/iphone-16-series-allows-users-to-wirelessly-restore-the-firmware-using-an-iphone-or-ipad/articleshow/113455048.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/iphone-16-series-allows-users-to-wirelessly-restore-the-firmware-using-an-iphone-or-ipad/articleshow/113455048.cms" target="_blank">iPhone 16 series allows users to wirelessly restore the firmware using an iPhone or iPad</a>

Sensex @ 84k: With 1,359 pts gain, benchmark index settles above historic mark

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks slumped from record highs as traders awaited fresh economic data.</li><li>Markets are bracing for the latest GDP revision, jobless claims, and PCE inflation data in the coming days.</li></ul>US stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday, ending a record-setting streak of gains as traders looked ahead to coming economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 300 points and the S&amp;P 500 slipped from record highs, ending the day about 0.2% lower. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a small gain. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield up five basis points to 3.789%. Traders are looking ahead to a slew of economic releases in the latter part of the week, with the second-quarter's latest GDP revision and weekly jobless claims scheduled for Thursday morning. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, will be released on Friday.The data points should give markets more insight into the underlying strength of the US economy, which could impact the path of rate cuts into year-end and in 2025. "While we are looking for the economy to slow to a more moderate pace into year-end, our base case does not include a recession," Scott Wren, the senior global strategist at Wells Fargo said in a note on Wednesday. "Even with that view, we are aware of potential risks in coming months as the economy continues to slow (interest rate cuts won't immediately reverse the slowdown), the US elects a new president, and tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine appear to be increasing."Traders are still expecting steep rate cuts over the course of the next year. Markets have priced in a 59% chance the Fed will issue another jumbo 50 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool, implying a rapid pace of policy easing.On the earnings front, investors will get an update on the strength of US chipmakers when Micron Technologies reports earnings after the closing bell. The event will be an important bellwether for the AI trade as investors worry about things like return on massive spending and continued demand for AI tools. Micron, which has consistently beaten earnings and revenue expectations over the past year, rose more than 1% on Wednesday ahead of its results.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,722.25, down 0.19% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,914.75, down 0.70% (-293.47 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,082.21, up 0.04% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-economy-stimulus-bernard-arnault-6-billion-richer-lvmh-stock-2024-9">Benard Arnault added $6 billion to his net worth</a> in a day this week after China's stimulus sparked a rally in luxury stocks.</li><li>Stocks are mirroring the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-everything-rally-returnsbull-surge-heats-up-nasdaq-gains-2024-9">early days of one of history's biggest bull markets</a>, according to one hedge fund manager.</li><li>There are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-strong-rally-through-december-despite-election-risk-2024-9">3 things that point to a strong stock rally through December</a>, Fundstrat says.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures dropped.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price"> West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dropped 2.57% to $69.72 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, fell 2.25% to $73.48. </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged 0.3% higher to $2,684 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up five basis points to 3.789%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slumped 0.93% to $63,239.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 drop as rally loses steam ahead of fresh economic data

<keyword id="19895579" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold" source="keywords">Gold</keyword> consistently reduces portfolio <keyword id="19908008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="volatility" source="keywords">volatility</keyword> while improving returns, even with increased <keyword id="20108512" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="allocation" source="keywords">allocation</keyword>. By simulating portfolio performance with varying allocations of gold (2.5% to 10%), it's evident that the yellow metal bolsters return without adding significant risk, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. On the other hand, <keyword id="19899404" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bitcoin" source="keywords">Bitcoin</keyword> shows diminishing returns as its allocation increases. A 2.5% allocation of bitcoin can enhance risk-adjusted returns, but beyond that, the portfolio's volatility rises, leading to larger drawdowns and lower overall performance. The data underscores that while bitcoin may offer short-term upside, it introduces risk that erodes its effectiveness as a stable <keyword id="22820244" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="store-of-value" source="keywords">store of value</keyword>. Global equities experienced a sharp downturn, with the <keyword id="19919944" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-500" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P 500" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="S&amp;P 500">S&amp;P 500</keyword> and <keyword id="19951906" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NASDAQ" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="NASDAQ" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="NASDAQ">NASDAQ</keyword> dropping over 4% and 6%, respectively, at the peak of the selloff. Amid this volatility, the debate over whether bitcoin can be considered "digital gold" resurfaced, as investors re-examined its place as an inflation hedge and a store of value. While bitcoin enthusiasts often label the cryptocurrency as "digital gold," a closer examination of the data, particularly during turbulent market periods, challenges this claim. Gold, a time-tested asset known for its stability, has long been a <keyword id="20466459" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="safe-haven" source="keywords">safe haven</keyword> during <keyword id="22820245" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-downturns" source="keywords">market downturns</keyword>. Bitcoin, on the other hand, displays characteristics more akin to high-risk technology stocks, making it an unsuitable substitute for gold in times of market stress. The primary distinction between gold and bitcoin lies in volatility. On a five-year rolling basis, gold has proven to be far less volatile than bitcoin, a trend that underscores its role as a safe haven asset. Gold's stable value is supported by central bank holdings, long-term investment demand, and its status as a global store of wealth. Bitcoin, conversely, is at the extreme end of the volatility spectrum, with its price fluctuations resembling those of tech stocks--closely tied to blockchain adoption and innovation trends. The most recent market correction in early August 2024 further emphasized these differences. While bitcoin experienced sharp losses, gold remained relatively stable, reinforcing its value as a risk mitigator during crises. The comparison of year-to-date returns reveals the stark contrast: bitcoin's wild swings have made it less reliable for investors seeking protection in a turbulent market. Bitcoin and gold also show stark differences in their correlation with broader markets. Gold has historically exhibited a negative correlation during down markets, and a positive correlation during up markets, making it an ideal asset for a diversified portfolio. Bitcoin, on the other hand, behaves more like risk assets, amplifying market stress rather than mitigating it. This was especially evident during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when gold outperformed while bitcoin faltered, aligning with other high-risk equities. Gold's global acceptance as a store of value--unrestricted by geographic or regulatory boundaries--provides further stability. Bitcoin, while growing in prominence, has not demonstrated the same universal acceptance or reliability, particularly during significant market downturns. The critical takeaway from the events of early August 2024 is that bitcoin has yet to demonstrate the same safe haven characteristics as gold. In times of significant market drawdowns, bitcoin has tracked risk assets like tech stocks, offering no meaningful protection for investors seeking stability. This reinforces the notion that bitcoin's most common use case is as an indicator of blockchain adoption rather than a dependable hedge against inflation or market turmoil.

Gold boosts returns and lowers risk, while Bitcoin heightens volatility, says World Gold Council

There has been a notable drop in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) <keyword id="45185" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="crude-oil" source="Orion">crude oil</keyword> production, marking the steepest decrease in six months, reveals the latest survey conducted by <keyword id="13362007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-commodity-insights" source="Orion">S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights</keyword>. However, the decline fell short of the approximately 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) in cuts pledged by the group for the first quarter of 2024. In January, OPEC+ crude output witnessed a decline of 340,000 b/d, attributed partly to voluntary cuts implemented by some members and disruptions in Libya's largest oil field due to protests. Despite this significant reduction, several members, including Iraq, Kazakhstan, the UAE, and Kuwait, failed to meet their agreed-upon targets. The core group of <keyword id="19900092" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="opec" source="keywords">OPEC</keyword> countries contributed the most to the production decline, with their output slipping by 310,000 b/d. OPEC members collectively produced 26.49 million b/d of crude, down from 26.80 million b/d in December. Meanwhile, 10 Russia-led allies, constituting OPEC+, saw a modest decrease of 30,000 b/d month-on-month, totaling 14.72 million b/d in January. The drop in production was primarily driven by slight declines in Omand Russian output. Several factors contributed to the production decline, including protests leading to the shutdown of Libya's Sharara oil field, as well as voluntary cuts by Kuwait and Iraq. Despite agreeing to significant output reductions at the last OPEC+ meeting, both countries exceeded their quotas in January. Additionally, Nigeria and Algeria witnessed slight declines in production, with Algeria successfully completing its voluntary reductions agreed upon last year. Notably, the UAE registered an increase in production following a long-awaited baseline increase granted under the OPEC+ deal in November. While <keyword id="19905161" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saudi-arabia" source="keywords">Saudi Arabia</keyword> maintained its commitment to a voluntary 1 million b/d cut since July, holding its crude output just below the target, other members struggled to adhere to their quotas. The failure to meet targeted reductions underscores challenges in achieving consensus and compliance within the coalition. The shortfall in January's production cuts may impact OPEC+'s market share, especially amidst surging crude output from non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil. Despite facing market uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ remains committed to stabilizing the market and improving the outlook for crude prices. As the alliance prepares for its next meeting in June, compliance with agreed-upon cuts is expected to remain a contentious issue. Despite calls for deeper cuts, internal discrepancies and production fluctuations among member states continue to pose challenges to OPEC+'s market stabilization efforts. The <keyword id="1427570" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="platts-survey" source="Orion">Platts survey</keyword>, compiled using information from industry officials, traders, and analysts, provides insights into the state of crude oil production within the OPEC+ coalition, shedding light on compliance levels and market dynamics.

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