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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is still using blacklisted ships to transport its oil, per Bloomberg data. </li><li>The nation loaded at least 17 cargoes of oil and oil products onto ships sanctioned by the West.</li></ul>Russia is leaning more heavily on crude tankers that have been blacklisted from the West in a sign Moscow is still finding ways to skirt Western restrictions on its oil trade.Since April, Russian ports have loaded at least 17 cargoes of oil and oil products onto ships that have already been restricted by the West, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.Moscow appears to have ramped up its use of sanctioned vessels over the last several months. A dozen sanctioned ships were known to load Russian crude and crude products in August and September, up from just one sanctioned ship recorded in April, the outlet reported.Many of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanction-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-crude-exports-price-cap-2024-2">Russia's sanctioned oil tankers were idle</a> after they were placed under trade restrictions, but some seemed to have operated under the radar and have recently started to show up on digital tracking systems, Bloomberg reported.The Bratsk and Belgorod, for instance, two ships sanctioned by the West, had fallen off the map during their first trip after they had been sanctioned. But both reappeared this month after docking and unloading their cargoes in China, the outlet said.Another 20 sanctioned tankers are known to be idling near Russia's coasts or anchored at Russian ports, the report added.Putin has openly brushed off Western sanctions on its oil trade, calling the Western ban and $60 price cap on its crude "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/vladimir-putin-russian-oil-price-cap-eu-ban-production-cut-2022-12">stupid</a>" shortly after those measures were implemented. But even the nation's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">central bankers have admitted</a> that sanctions are crimping its oil business, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-energy-revenue-crude-oil-prices-gas-exports-sanctions-ukraine-2024-1">Russia's energy revenues dropping</a> by nearly a quarter last year.Falling crude prices also appear to be hitting Russia's oil trade. In the first week of September, Moscow <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-war-revenue-crude-prices-opec-production-cut-2024-9">pulled just $1.44 billion from its oil exports</a>, the lowest crude revenue recorded since January, Bloomberg previously reported.

Sanctioned tankers are back to transporting Russian oil in a blow to the West's efforts to restrict crude flows

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's oil revenue has plummeted as global crude prices fall. </li><li>Oil sales dropped to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, per data cited by Bloomberg.</li></ul>Russia's oil business has taken a hit, with the nation's crude revenue dropping to its lowest levels in seven months, according to Argus Media data cited by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-10/russia-s-oil-exports-earn-the-least-since-february-as-prices-tumble">Bloomberg</a>.Moscow, which relies on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-west-secondary-sanctions-hitting-oil-exports-payments-revenue-2024-3">crude sales</a> for a big chunk of its revenue, saw the gross value of its oil exports drop to $1.44 billion in the week ending September 8, down from $1.52 billion netted the prior week, the outlet reported. That's the lowest amount Russia has netted from crude exports since January, despite the nation pumping out 40,000 more barrels of oil a day over the last week.The decline has largely been fueled by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-outlook-supply-demand-break-down-record-us-production-2024-9">plunging oil prices</a> as the demand outlook falters amid predictions of a recession in the US, while US producers continue to pump record amounts of crude. <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://oilprice.com">Urals crude</a>, Russia's flagship oil blend, has edged lower to $67.61 a barrel, down around 20% from its peak in the spring of this year.Russia is also selling less oil than it did in the prior years, thanks to weaker demand from its Asian customers and oil pipeline disruptions to Hungary in August. Russia's four-week average sales volume slumped to 3.13 million barrels a day as of September 8, down 30,000 barrels a day from the prior monthly average.Observed Russian crude shipments to Asia, in particular, dropped to an average 2.92 million barrels a day in the month over that time frame, around 10% below the average shipped earlier this year, the report said.Russia is set to make even steeper oil production cuts later in 2024, as part of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-crash-opec-saudi-arabia-us-production-brent-outlook-2023-12">OPEC's goal to boost crude prices</a>. The nation is planning to ramp up production cuts in October and November to make up for producing more than it promised earlier in the year, Russia's Energy Ministry said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/s/minenergo_official/3799">post</a> on Telegram, though it didn't clarify how much further it would cut.

Russia's oil revenue has plunged as global crude prices tumble

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's presidency may pressure Russia's oil and gas industry.</li><li>The EU is thinking about replacing Russian LNG with US shipments, potentially affecting trade dynamics.</li></ul>Russia's lucrative oil and gas industry could come under greater pressure when US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.Domestically, Trump is championing the US oil and gas industry and encouraging production — which is likely to underscore America's position as an oil and gas giant.Meanwhile, the European Union said it could consider buying more US liquefied natural gas in a deal with Trump that would address a trade deficit. The EU doesn't have to burn bridges to negotiate with Trump, because the bloc still imports LNG from Russia."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters on Friday."It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>To be sure, it's ultimately up to EU importers to decide where to import energy supplies based on market conditions.However, at least one EU country — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d23591fc-0463-4346-865c-0e851a256ed2">Belgium</a> — is calling on the bloc to ban Russian LNG imports to further squeeze Moscow's war chest.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The EU has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US — which is now a top exporter of the fuel to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Russia accounts for 8% of the EU's LNG imports. Other major LNG exporters to the EU include Qatar and Algeria."It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> on Friday.<h2 id="e98e057f-427c-49fe-80b4-6b3536753369">'Drill, baby, drill'</h2>Trump's victory could shake up the highly politicized energy industry as he has made it clear that he supports oil production."I make this pledge to the great people of America: I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates, and lower the cost of energy," Trump said in his Republican National Convention speech in July."We will drill, baby, drill," Trump said.While Trump's pledges to loosen energy regulations in the US are seen as a boost to the industry, it could increase oil supplies — a negative for prices.For consumers, lower energy prices translate to lower pump prices and electricity bills.However, it would also pressure energy company profits and, in turn, discourage more production — which is at record levels in the US.But there could also be other moving parts in Trump's second term, including potential sanctions on oil supplies from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia — all of which could tighten global supplies and support prices.Even before Trump's second election, there are so many uncertainties surrounding the geopolitical economy of energy that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/major-oil-producers-saudi-arabia-russia-diversify-economies-opec-shale-2024-10">Saudi Arabia and Russia,</a> two of the largest oil producers, are trying to diversify their economies.In the meantime, the broad energy market is taking a wait-and-see stance."Initial market reactions have been muted to Trump's election victory, but in the medium term, he is expected to reinforce the US' role as a leading oil and LNG exporter," wrote Kaushal Ramesh, the head of gas and LNG analytics at Rystad Energy research firm on Monday.

Russia's lucrative oil and oil industry is an easy target for Europe after Trump's election victory

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil exports from Russia dropped to their lowest level in seven months.</li><li>Crude oil exports peaked in April and have fallen 620,000 barrels a day since.</li></ul>Russian oil exports have dropped to the lowest levels since December.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-23/russia-s-oil-exports-fall-further-to-the-lowest-in-more-than-seven-months">Bloomberg reported on Tuesday</a> that exports from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, two of the country's main ports, are down 41% in the last month and are on track to keep falling. The decline comes as Russia moves to comply with cuts agreed to by the OPEC+ oil cartel. The country plans to cut production further in the coming months to make up for producing beyond its OPEC+ quota, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-16/russia-plans-to-make-opec-compensation-oil-cuts-in-warm-seasons">sources told Bloomberg</a>.The Kremlin has generally complied with OPEC's guidance, and during a series of cuts in March, President Vladimir Putin <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-putin-opec-oil-us-output-cuts-competition-market-share-2024-3">backed the OPEC+'s efforts to maintain oil prices</a> but voiced worries over losing market share to the US.So far this year, Russian crude exports have fallen about 30,000 barrels a day from last year's average, and are down 620,000 barrels a day since peaking in April. The drop in exports of Russian crude oil also comes amid recent sanctions from Ukraine against Russian oil supplier Lukoil, which has diverted some oil flows to European countries like Hungary and Slovakia. Pipes to these countries would need to pass through Ukraine, and exports could rise again as the company diverts flows. Meanwhile, the UK recently sanctioned tankers that move oil from Russia, including some that are part of the country's "shadow fleet." Over 60 tankers that carry Russian crude are now sanctioned.Those sanctions are driving refiners in some countries, like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/india-russian-crude-trade-sovcomflot-shipping-sanctioned-tankers-price-cap-2024-3">those in India</a>, to refuse deliveries of Russian oil.Sanctions on Russian energy are part of a larger effort to crimp the revenue needed to keep funding the war in Ukraine, and have escalated since the conflict began in 2022. Russia contributed to about 12% of global crude oil production in 2023, making it the third biggest crude producer in the world, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/236605/share-of-global-crude-oil-production-of-the-top-15-oil-producing-countries/">Statista</a>.

Russian oil exports drop to lowest in 7 months amid OPEC cuts and sanctions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia has contributed to lower oil prices as its exports exceeded its own target.</li><li>The country has pledged to cut oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day.</li></ul>Russia may be helping fuel the steady decline of global oil prices, despite Moscow's commitment to limit its exports. Crude oil shipments from the OPEC+ member's western port have risen since September, according to E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers data cited by the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-11-13-2023/card/one-reason-for-lower-oil-prices-russian-exports-are-climbing-MBitDGsSvMS88WYVDJWH?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Wall Street Journal reported.</a>That coincided with a nearly 13% slide in <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent</a> crude.The international benchmark now trades at around $82 a barrel, despite earlier forecasts that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-prices-surge-100-barrel-new-normal-jp-morgan-2023-9">it could reach $100</a>.And even the latest report from OPEC on Monday also appeared to acknowledge the increase in crude flows. While it said refined product exports are down, the oil cartel noted seaborne crude shipments out of Russia rose. Russia <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-continue-voluntary-cut-oil-oil-product-exports-until-year-end-2023-11-05/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has vowed to curb crude exports</a> by 300,000 barrels per day, in a deal reached with OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia. But October's seaborne outflows totalled 3.54 million barrels per day, surpassing the limit by about 300,000 barrels per day, according to <a href="https://www.workboat.com/viewpoints/russian-crude-exports-far-above-target-level-in-october#:~:text=Seaborne%20exports%20in%20October%2C%20excluding,level%20by%20about%20400%2C000%20bpd." target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rystad Energy</a>. It added that as refinery activity in Russia rebounds, less crude oil will likely be exported. As global benchmark oil prices fall, Russia's Urals crude is also trending lower. Last week, it traded at $66.19, according to data cited by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-13/russia-s-flagship-crude-price-is-sliding-toward-60-g-7-cap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg,</a> closer to the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the West late last year for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Russian crude exports are rising despite pledge to cut, helping keep oil prices in check

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Winter winds and freezing temperatures have slowed Russian crude exports, Bloomberg reported.</li><li>The icy storms and a Ukrainian drone strike last week have helped knock shipments to an 8-week low.</li></ul>An icy blast of winter weather has stalled Russia's oil exports from a key Pacific port supplying Chinese buyers, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/russia-s-oil-exports-by-sea-are-battered-by-winter-storms?srnd=markets-vp">reported</a> on Tuesday.The winter winds and freezing temperatures have reduced Russia's weekly crude flows, with 3.09 million barrels a day of oil shipped from Russian ports in the four weeks through January 28, down by about 250,000 barrels a day from the three weeks through January 21. The weekly average fell by 120,000 barrels a day.The wintry storms, coupled with loading disruptions caused by a Ukrainian drone strike last week, combined to force Russian crude exports to hit an 8-week low of 2.8 million barrels a day.While the chaos chilled activity at some ports, it was partly offset by a record 11 tankers loaded at Russia's Primorsk port (the largest oil-loading port in the Baltic Sea). Asian countries like China and India have emerged as big importers of Russian oil after the West levied heavy sanctions on the Kremlin following the invasion of Ukraine, making them crucial crude trading partners. But the shipments that do make it out of ports like Primorsk still have more hurdles to cross in the Red Sea, where Yemen's Houthi rebels continue to attack commercial ships passing through the key trading lane. While the Houthis have guaranteed Russian ships safe passage through the key waterway, ships carrying cargo of Urals crude and Russian naphtha have been attacked in the past few months.A reduction in shipping ability follows on the heels of Russia agreeing to cut oil output as a part of the OPEC+ decision to suck oil supply out of the market to boost prices. The Kremlin has said it will cut about 500,000 barrels a day below the May-June average for the first quarter of the year.

Winter winds are freezing Russia's crude oil shipments to China

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Iran's missile attack on Israel sent US stocks lower on Tuesday.</li><li>Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped.</li></ul>Stock indexes dropped on Tuesday as escalating Middle East tensions jolted investors.Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. The attack was in response to Israel's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9">ground offensive into Lebanon</a>, which began the night before.Crude oil jumped as much as 6% on the news. Traders will now be bracing for Israel's response to Iran, and whether this has the potential to disrupt oil flows, said Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy."Iran is producing at a five-year high," she told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/01/heres-how-iranian-missile-strikes-could-impact-oil-prices.html">CNBC</a>. "We do need to think of a scenario where Iranian oil supply is at risk."As oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets. On Tuesday, the yellow metal jumped more than 1%, and continues to hover near its recent all-time record."Military conflicts can quickly escalate into a scenario that causes markets to sell off dramatically, with safe haven assets such as gold and Treasuries seeing heavy inflows," said Quincy Krosby, Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 pm closing bell on Tuesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,708.75, down 0.9%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones industrial average</a>: 42,156.97, down 0.4% (173 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,910.36, down 1.5%</li></ul>On the economic data front, job openings in August increased more than expected unexpectedly to 8.04 million, surpassing consensus estimates of 7.6 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey."This noisy indicator is starting to suggest a stabilization of the job market as the Fed pivots," Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, wrote. "Relatively few workers are being fired or laid off, and few are leaving jobs voluntarily for other opportunities, either."Investors can expect more labor data to come in this week, culminating in September's jobs report on Friday. Economists forecast 150,000 jobs added for the month and a flat unemployment rate of 4.2%.Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-stimulus-fiscal-consumer-support-deflation-stephen-roach-2024-10">There are still 2 steps China needs to take to avoid long-term deflation</a>, Yale economist Stephen Roach says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-barter-pakistan-mounting-sanctions-western-war-allies-international-trade-2024-10">A Russian firm is reportedly forced to barter for Pakistani rice</a> as Western sanctions bite down.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-stocks-beijing-stimulus-investing-hang-seng-index-kyle-bass-2024-10?_gl=1*99fgnj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzgwOTAzNC42NzYuMS4xNzI3ODEyMzU0LjIzLjAuMA..">Don't put money into Chinese stocks over the long-term</a>, 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass says.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-port-strike-biggest-stock-market-winners-losers-investing-analysis-2024-10?_gl=1*16y3xs3*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNzgwOTAzNC42NzYuMS4xNzI3ODEyNDU4LjYwLjAuMA..">Here are the biggest stock winners and losers coming out of the port strike</a>.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> increased 1% to $2,661.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield fell five basis points to 3.73%</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> dropped 5% to $60,812.01.</li></ul>

Stocks tumble, oil spikes as Mideast tensions flare

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine's Liutyi drones are behind 80% of strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to a report.</li><li>Developed without state backing, the Liutyi drone had a challenging start in 2023.</li></ul>A Ukrainian-developed long-range drone is responsible for the vast majority of the country's successful strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to a new report.The Liutyi drone was developed as Ukraine's answer to the inexpensive but deadly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-air-force-shot-down-iran-made-shahed-136-drones-2023-9">Shahed exploding drone</a>, which Russia has launched in waves against Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/">Ukrainska Pravda reported</a>.According to the outlet, it's believed to be behind 80% of all successful drone attacks on Russian soil, many of them hundreds of miles inside Russia's borders.The Liutyi had an inauspicious start.Developed without Ukrainian state backing, its large and cumbersome design was offputting to lawmakers. "To be honest, nobody really believed in this drone," an unnamed MP on Ukraine's defense committee told Ukrainska Pravda.During one of its early trials in April 2023, operators briefly lost control of one of the drones, which almost struck the control center it was launched from, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/13/7455509/">the outlet reported</a>.But by the start of this year, Ukraine had begun a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-are-doing-massive-damage-to-russia-oil-sector-2024-4">concerted campaign of regular cross-border drone strikes,</a> focused primarily on Russia's oil refineries.The Liutyi appears to have been a key part of this.According to the report, the Liutyi can travel up to 600 miles, has a wingspan of 22 feet, and can carry a 50kg explosive payload.Other drones <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-struck-oil-refinery-930-miles-into-russia-drone-2024-5">have struck farther away,</a> but it seems that Ukraine's campaign of strikes on Russian oil facilities is being primarily led by the Lyutyi.Despite concerns from its allies that the strikes could destabilize global oil partners and provoke Russia, Ukraine has kept up a steady barrage — and the effects appear to be bearing fruit.In February, Russia <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27/russia-to-ban-gasoline-exports-for-six-months">announced</a> a six-month gasoline export ban. <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-warnings-ukraine-strikes-two-fuel-depots-russia/">Ukraine has claimed</a> that its attacks have reduced Russian oil production and processing by 12%.The tactic of targeting oil refineries rather than crude oil production forces Russia to put more crude oil onto the market, experts wrote in Foreign Affairs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries">this month</a>, which they said had the effect of raising the price of refined oil products domestically, while not leading to a surge in global oil prices.

One type of Ukrainian drone is responsible for 80% of successful strikes on Russian oil refineries: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil refineries in recent months.</li><li>The Biden administration has criticized the strikes, warning of global energy price rises.</li></ul>Ukraine has been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-sign-ukraine-stop-strikes-russia-oil-facilities-experts-us-2024-4">ramping up attacks on Russian oil refineries</a> in recent months as it seeks to hamper Russian export revenues and curtail fuel supplies to Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces.In one of the latest attacks, Ukrainian drones struck an oil refinery in Russia's Kaluga region, setting it on fire, the RIA state news agency reported on Friday, per <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-attack-sparks-fire-refinery-russias-kaluga-ria-reports-2024-05-10/">Reuters</a>.Ukraine also hit Gazprom's Neftekhim Salavat oil refinery, one of Russia's largest oil refineries, earlier this week, Radiy Khabirov, the head of Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan, said in a post on <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/radiyhabirov/7305">Telegram</a>.However, the Biden administration has previously slammed such tactics, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying in April that it risked impacting global energy markets and urging Ukraine to shift its focus onto military targets."Those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation," Austin <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-restoring-oil-refining-capacity-knocked-out-by-drones-2024-04-15/">said</a>. "Quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served by going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight."However, some experts believe such criticism is misguided.Writing for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries">Foreign Affairs</a> magazine, Michael Liebreich, the founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and Sam Winter-Levy, a doctoral candidate in political science at Princeton University, argued that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining facilities would not lead to spikes in global energy prices.The experts said that Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries would only hinder Russia's ability to turn its oil into refined products such as gasoline and would not impact the volume of oil it can extract or export."In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up," they added.And such strikes will likely continue to affect those within Russia, where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-diesel-prices-skyrocket-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-oil-refineries/#:~:text=Diesel%20prices%20for%20Russian%20consumers,are%20forced%20to%20suspend%20production.">prices for refined products like gas or diesel are soaring</a> — meaning Ukraine's attacks are achieving the aims of failed Western economic sanctions, they continued.The West has attempted to impose a number of sanctions on Russia to limit its income from energy, with the US and the UK banning Russian oil and gas and G7 leaders agreeing to set a price cap on Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel.But Russia has largely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-revenue-rise-despite-ukraine-attacks-2024-4">managed to get around such measures</a>, with its Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, saying in December last year that Russia had shifted almost all of its oil exports to China and India.<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-gas-revenue-war-budget-april-ukraine-sanctions-putin-2024-5">Russia's oil revenue in April more than doubled year on year</a>, Bloomberg reported, highlighting its success in rediverting operations.Its total oil and gas revenue for the month hit 1.23 trillion rubles, up almost 90% from April last year, per the report.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-restoring-oil-refining-capacity-knocked-out-by-drones-2024-04-15/">Reuters</a> reported in April that Russia also appeared to be able to quickly repair some of the key refining facilities affected by Ukrainian strikes, reducing impacted capacity to roughly 10% from nearly 14% at the end of March, per the agency's calculations.Ukraine has since launched a series of new attacks on refining sites, however, and it is as yet unclear how these have affected Russia's repair efforts.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries may be proving the Biden administration wrong, experts say      

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine says it executed its farthest drone strike yet, hitting a Russian oil refinery 930 miles away.</li><li>Ukraine's Security Service claimed the attack on Wednesday.</li></ul>Ukraine's latest aerial attack on Russian soil is its farthest one yet, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/9/7454980/">Ukrainska Pravda reported</a>, with officials saying a drone traveled 930 miles to strike an oil refinery far inside Russia's borders.Unnamed sources within Ukraine's Security Service told the outlet that one of its drones struck a Gazprom refinery in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan on Wednesday.The region's head, Radiy Khabirov, confirmed smoke was coming from the refinery but said it was operating as normal, <a target="_blank" href="https://ria.ru/20240509/ataka-1944908493.html">according to Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti</a>.Footage of the aftermath of the apparent attack was also posted <a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/bazabazon/27635">on the prominent pro-Russian Telegram account Baza</a>.The strike, which has not been independently confirmed, would represent a distance record in Ukraine's ever-more ambitious series of drone strikes on Russian energy facilities.In early April, Ukraine demonstrated its drones' increasing reach after Russian officials <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/drone-deep-russia-ukraine-brag-new-620-mile-range-war-2024-4">reported strikes 620 miles inside their country</a>.But the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-are-doing-massive-damage-to-russia-oil-sector-2024-4">ferocious campaign</a> — launched in earnest in January — has seemingly struck a nerve with the US.Reports claim that the White House has reached out to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to signal its concern that hitting Russia's oil production will destabilize global energy prices.Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, along with energy analyst Lauri Myllyvirta and Sam Winter-Levy, highlighted in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries">Foreign Affairs article</a> this week how Ukraine's strikes could hurt Russia without sending global oil prices soaring.The attacks are largely striking Russia's refining capacity, rather than its oil fields, they said, which actually forces Russia to export crude oil, likely bringing prices down globally.The strikes have also led to a surge in the price of refined oil products within Russia itself, they argued.These are some of the exact areas where the West's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-oil-exports-trade-economy-military-spending-2024-3">lackluster sanctions</a> have failed to bite.But there's some skepticism around the effectiveness of the attacks.<a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/92132">Carnegie scholar Sergey Vakulenko wrote</a> in April that even if Ukraine took out every refinery within its reach, Russia would likely still be able to procure enough oil for its own uses.Meanwhile, several experts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/no-sign-ukraine-stop-strikes-russia-oil-facilities-experts-us-2024-4">told</a> Business Insider last month that Ukraine would do well to ignore the US' counsel.Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at the RAND Corporation, told BI that although the impact won't be immediate, "consistently putting pressure on Russia's oil sector would have a significant impact on Russia's ability to fight this war."Russian officials routinely downplay the impact of the strikes. But there are some indicators that the pain is trickling through: Russia has <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/27/russia-to-ban-gasoline-exports-for-six-months">announced</a> a six-month gasoline export ban, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/united-states-warnings-ukraine-strikes-two-fuel-depots-russia/">Ukraine claims</a> that its attacks have reduced Russian oil production and processing by 12%.

Ukraine says it flew a drone 930 miles into Russian territory to strike an oil refinery

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's intake of Russian crude is set to reach a record this month, Kpler data cited by Bloomberg shows.</li><li>Imports of Sokol crude are on course to jump as Indian buyers back away.</li></ul>Chinese imports of Russian crude are on course to reach record volumes this month, as Beijing takes over diminishing Indian demand. 1.7 million barrels a day are expected to ship into the country, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/china-set-for-record-russian-oil-imports-in-march-kpler-says?srnd=undefined" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg</a> said, citing Kpler data. China's intake of Sokol oil — a Russian crude typically sought after by India — is likely to triple from last month, and should hit an all-time high of 379,000 barrels a day.ESPO flows into China are also expected to rise, reaching their highest level since January 2023.In one way, surging inflows are evidence of a deeper trade partnership between Beijing and Moscow, one <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-outlook-exports-trade-war-russia-partnership-us-sanctions-2024-3">recently touted</a> by Foreign Minister Wang Yi as resembling a "new paradigm of major-country relations."But it also stands to showcase the withdrawal of Indian buyers, who have fewer incentives to demand Russian crude amid a tightening of Western sanctions.Although India became the biggest market for Russian seaborne crude exports last year, it's become more challenging for Moscow to offer the same sort of discounts on its oil as before. That's as the West has pursued stricter enforcement of its curbs, applying a slew of sanctions on entities that breach have breached its restrictions. For instance, by mid-February, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-sanction-oil-tankers-shadow-fleet-crude-exports-price-cap-2024-2">50 tankers</a> have been targeted by such efforts, after shipping Russian crude above the $60 price cap mandated by the Group of Seven.Russia's state tanker firm Sovcomflot has notched a number of these penalties, due to which it recently <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/russian-oil-squeeze-tightens-as-sovcomflot-admits-difficulties?srnd=markets-vp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acknowledged operational hardship</a>, Bloomberg said. For those buying, this has added to freight costs, while adding to difficulties in finding available tankers. The discount on Russia's Urals oil mix has meanwhile risen, gaining $4 per barrel in February. That same month, Indian imports of Russian crude fell by <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-oil-energy-exports-india-imports-revenue-sanctions-discount-2024-3?_gl=1*mhqvdo*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxMDc3Nzk3Ni4yMTQuMS4xNzEwNzc4MzUyLjAuMC4w">420,000 barrels a day</a>. According to Bloomberg, the implied cost of importing Urals crude to the country is now around 20% of the export price when leaving Russia. And although China's buying is surging, its traders also consider Moscow's asking prices as too high, sources told the outlet. The country is also not immune to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-biggest-banks-stop-russia-payments-icbc-ccb-boc-2024-2">secondary sanctions</a> from the US and its allies, and could mean that Chinese banks hesitate from joining the trade.

China is on pace to buy a record amount of Russian oil this month

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Deutsche Energy Terminal has been told to reject Russian LNG, according to The Financial Times.</li></ul>Germany is believed to have told its ports to reject Russian cargoes of liquefied natural gas in a bid to further isolate Vladimir Putin's energy industry.The country's economic ministry told the state-owned Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept deliveries of Russian LNG, according to a letter dated November 6 obtained by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/94bb16b8-b4b1-4360-b7d0-cecca1ebffaa?accessToken=zwAGJtzDN_1YkdOUuxa4tLFDYNO30M7Moev_qg.MEYCIQClq2abFM5Kf3q6PR9Ry9NhImf-JYCu4Yh6Rh9BsTbqZgIhAPT3_uF_tz7M8QVY1Ev2iiCyzpSATlrHAOp2YMu48s9L&amp;sharetype=gift&amp;token=4d2150bc-286c-4fe0-9795-2102f9e6b9ca">Financial Times</a>.The letter was sent after the company was due to receive a Russian cargo shipment on Sunday at its import facility in Brunsbüttel, the FT said.It went on to say that the decision would protect Germany's "overriding public interests."The letter added that accepting the deliveries would defy the reason the German terminal was initially opened — to allow Germany and the EU to become "independent of Russian gas."It comes as the EU weighs up buying more LNG from the US when President-elect Donald Trump takes office in a bid to convince him not to impose high import tariffs on EU companies. Trump pledged on the campaign trail to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">a fresh era</a> of trade <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-reaction-donald-trump-election-victory-tariffs-trade-disputes-2024-11">tariffs</a>. He has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on goods imported from China and a 10% blanket tariff on all other goods entering the US.European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said last week that she would consider replacing Russian LNG with more US imports as part of trade talks."We still get a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and brings down our energy prices," von der Leyen told reporters on Friday. "It's something where we can get into a discussion," she said, referring to the US's trade deficit with the eurozone, which reached <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union">$131.3 billion in 2022.</a>"It would be in the interest of the US that Europe continues to shun Russian fossil fuels, given the US oil and gas industry has been one of the key beneficiaries of this move," wrote Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy at <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/what-a-trump-presidency-means-for-oil-and-gas-markets/">ING,</a> last week.The EU — which previously relied on Russian energy — banned seaborne Russian crude imports and refined petroleum products following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.As BI previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-oil-gas-energy-industry-europe-target-trump-election-win-2024-11">reported</a>, it has also cut most of its piped natural gas imports from Russia, replacing much of it with LNG from the US. The US is now a top exporter of gas to Europe, accounting for <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/carbon-management-and-fossil-fuels/liquefied-natural-gas_en">46% of the bloc's supply in 2023.</a>Germany hasn't imported LNG directly from Russia since the invasion. However, according to a Kpler report obtained by FT, the country's state energy group, Sefe, has a long-term contract to import Russian LNG via France.In a statement to Business Insider, a spokesperson for Germany's economic ministry said it wouldn't comment on "possible leaked documents.""It is correct that Germany does not import Russian gas and it is also clear to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," the spokesperson added.Deutsche Energy Terminal and Sefe did not immediately respond to a request for comment from BI.

Germany banned Russian gas from its ports, the latest move to isolate Putin's energy industry: report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia has a history of painting decoy military aircraft at its airbases around the country.</li><li>Analysts say the tactic is an attempt to mislead Ukraine when it carries out long-range attacks.</li></ul>Russia has a history of painting fake aircraft at its bases to try and fool Ukraine, and recent satellite imagery reveals that Moscow has extended this practice into the new year.Deception continues to play a crucial role as the grinding war between Moscow and Kyiv nears the two-year mark. Both sides have made use of decoys in an attempt to trick the other. But Russia's aircraft paintings are unconvincing compared to inflatable models, for example.A Jan. 11 image captured by Planet Labs PBC and obtained by Business Insider shows the silhouette of a warplane on the tarmac of Mozdok Air Base in southeast Russia. But unlike another aircraft that can be seen in the photo, the silhouette appears in a ghostly shade of white and doesn't cast a shadow.That silhouette is missing in an image of the same base taken more than six months earlier, on June 21.<div type="image" title="Mozdok Air Base on June 21, 2023." height="1080" width="1920" msid="107583886" hostid="261" sizebytes="65704"></div>Mozdok is not the only Russian airfield where this practice has popped up in recent months; satellite imagery has captured mural-like warplanes at multiple bases around the country, and also throughout the occupied Crimean peninsula.Not far from Mozdok in southwest Russia is the Krymsk Air Base not far from the Kerch Strait bridge that connects Crimea with Russia. A Nov. 10 satellite image reveals the silhouettes of four fighter jets that are painted in a bright shade of white and lack shadows, unlike other aircraft parked nearby. These silhouettes are missing in an Oct. 11 image of the same base.<div type="image" title="Krymsk Air Base on Nov. 10, 2023." height="928" width="1446" msid="107583891" hostid="261" sizebytes="69966"></div><div type="image" title="Krymsk Air Base on Nov. 10, 2023." height="964" width="1410" msid="107583895" hostid="261" sizebytes="70366"></div>Over in Crimea, at the Gvardeyskoye Air Base in the center of the peninsula, a Dec. 5 satellite image shows the silhouettes of two fighter jets painted in a very light shade of gray, nearly blending in with the tarmac. Their noses resemble small, white dots. The silhouettes don't cast shadows, unlike nearby aircraft, and they aren't there in Aug. 23. imagery of the same base.<div type="image" title="Gvardeyskoye Air Base on Aug. 23, 2023." height="1430" width="2576" msid="107583900" hostid="261" sizebytes="59640"></div><div type="image" title="Gvardeyskoye Air Base on Dec. 5, 2023." height="1238" width="2236" msid="107583904" hostid="261" sizebytes="91238"></div>In the southwestern corner of Crimea, near the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol, an Oct. 26 image of the Belbek Air Base reveals four gray silhouettes of fighter jets that nearly blend in with the tarmac. The silhouettes don't give off any shadows, unlike the two other aircraft that are parked there, and they also don't appear in a photo captured of the same base on March 10.<div type="image" title="A Russian airfield near Sevastopol, Crimea on Mar. 10, 2023." height="732" width="1301" msid="107583908" hostid="261" sizebytes="59070"></div><div type="image" title="A Russian airfield near Sevastopol, Crimea on Oct. 26, 2023." height="825" width="1468" msid="107583914" hostid="261" sizebytes="66292"></div>Analysts say <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-russia-painted-fake-decoy-aircraft-fool-ukraine-weapons-2024-1">this widespread tactic</a> is an attempt by Russia to try and fool Ukrainian weaponry from hitting actual targets."These decoys are an attempt to mislead Ukrainian one-way attack drones that may rely on basic cameras to detect the outline of Russian aircraft," Brady Africk, an open-source-intelligence analyst at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, told Business Insider.Africk has long tracked Russia's fake aircraft and shared a few examples of this tactic in a Jan. 30 <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1752432717407367507">thread</a> posted to X, the platform formally known as Twitter. The presence of the decoys, he said, "indicates that Russia is concerned about Ukraine's ability to strike Russian military targets further and further from the front lines."Indeed, as the war has progressed, Kyiv has increasingly managed to carry out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-attack-causes-serious-damage-crimea-air-base-ukrainian-intelligence-2023-09-21/">long-range attacks</a> with missiles and drones on Moscow's bases — whether that's deep inside Russia's sovereign territory or in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-first-atacms-strike-deal-blow-russian-airpower-western-intelligence-2023-10">occupied regions</a> of Ukraine.Africk said the use of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-drone-video-captures-field-full-of-inflatable-russian-tanks-2023-9">deception and decoys</a> has been "consistently present" throughout the war, with fake aircraft in particular being "prominent" on both Russian and Ukrainian airfields."We've seen several examples of munitions being used on decoy aircraft," he added. "So it's logical that Russia would create these decoys in an attempt to lead away Ukrainian one-way attack drones from real aircraft to fake ones."But the creativity hasn't stopped at the airfields. Aside from its fake warplanes, Russia has also deployed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-inflatable-tanks-misused-not-credible-expert-2023-9">inflatable T-72 tanks</a>, while Ukraine, on the other hand, has rolled out rocket launchers made <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-using-fake-wooden-rocket-launchers-russia-waste-missiles-report-2022-8">out of wood</a> and oil barrels used to build decoy <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-making-decoy-radars-using-old-russia-oil-barrels-ft-2023-9">radar reflectors</a>.

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