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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation accelerated as expected in October.</li><li>The consumer price index increased 2.6% from October 2023, matching the forecast.</li></ul>As expected by economic forecasters, inflation heated up in October.The consumer price index sped up as expected to a 2.6% year-over-year growth rate in October from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">September's rate of 2.4%</a>.Inflation had been cooling down for most of 2024. Before the latest reading, the last uptick in the headline year-over-year rate was in March.Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% in October from a year ago, matching the forecast and the previous year-over-year increase.The Federal Reserve will likely want to see signs of inflation continuing to come down to its 2% target as Federal Open Market Committee members decide whether to continue cutting interest rates. There are still a lot of data releases to come out before the year's final scheduled FOMC meeting in December, including further reports for inflation measures like the CPI.The Fed decided in its November meeting to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-quarter-point-powell-inflation-election-2024-11">cut interest rates by 25 basis points</a>, which was largely expected and smaller than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">September's 50-basis-point cut</a>.Before the latest CPI report, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch</a> showed investors were assigning around a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point cut in December. After the CPI news release, that increased to around 70%.November's jobs report, to be published in early December, will also help Americans and the Fed better understand the labor market in the fall after employment readings in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/october-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-11">October</a> were surprisingly weak amid hurricanes and strikes."We're trying to be on a middle path where we can maintain the strength in the labor market while also enabling further progress on inflation," Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on November 7.This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Inflation heated up in October as expected

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) has started its three-day monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting in Mumbai on Tuesday. The meeting will conclude on Thursday, when the RBI will announce its decisions on the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> and other matters. The repo rate, which has been maintained at 6.5 per cent since it was last increased in February 2023, is widely expected by experts to remain unchanged for the ninth consecutive bi-monthly policy review. Experts highlight that <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> in India remains above the RBI's target range, making it unlikely that the central bank will implement policy cuts until inflation reaches the target of 4 per cent. However, the expert added that the RBI may consider rate cuts in the October meeting. Banking expert Ashutosh Khajuria commented: "Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to hold the policy signalling Repo rate and wait for <keyword id="19979707" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Inflation" source="keywords">Consumer Price Inflation</keyword> to decisively fall below 4 per cent, the target rate. For the present, the continuation of the current stance is widely expected. MPC in India may change the stance and rate action by the beginning of the second half of the year in their October meeting at the earliest." The experts also noted that while <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword> has been contained and commodity prices, particularly metals, have dropped by 15-20 per cent from their 2024 peak, food inflation remains a concern and needs to be closely monitored to ensure stability in overall CPI numbers. The Managing Director of a major bank, who preferred not to be named, told ANI: "During the last policy meeting we could see some voting in favour of a <keyword id="19920203" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cut" source="keywords">rate cut</keyword>. At the same time, we could see The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on July 11 said it is too early to talk on the interest rate cut due to the uncertain economic environment and inflation remaining close to five per cent. Considering both, our expectation is that the rate cut cycle may start from the next meeting and no change in <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> this time." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had also emphasised in the last policy briefing that food inflation is still a concern and that the regulator is not in a hurry to make a decision on rate cuts. A recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI) also noted that Consumer Price Inflation in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent for the financial year 2024-25, except for the months of September and October.

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword> in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts. Earlier this month, the government reconstituted the Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel -- <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC). The reconstituted panel, with three newly appointed external members, will commence its maiden meeting on Monday. MPC Chairman RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will reveal the outcome of the three-day discussion on Wednesday (October 9). The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has kept the repo or short-term lending rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February 2023, and experts think some easing could only be possible in December. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. In the current context, experts feel that the RBI may not follow the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the benchmark rates by 50 basis points, and the central banks of some developed nations, which have reduced the interest rates. "We do not expect any change in the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> or stance by MPC. The reason is that inflation for September and October will be above 5 per cent, and the present low inflation is due to the base effect. Besides, core inflation is inching upwards," said Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda. Further, the recent Iran-Israel imbroglio can intensify, and there is uncertainty here, he said. "Hence, the status quo is the most likely option even for new members. Inflation forecast may be lowered by 10-20 bps and no change in GDP forecast likely," said Sabnavis. The central bank last hiked the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in February 2023 and since then, it has held the rate at the same level. Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said that given the undershooting in the initial first quarter GDP growth relative to the MPC's forecast and the likely sizeable undershooting in the second quarter CPI inflation print as well, "we believe a stance change to neutral may be appropriate in the October 2024 policy review". This could be followed by a shallow rate-cutting cycle of 25 bps each in December 2024 and February 2025, she added. "The abundant monsoon offers some insurance for crop inflation. The impact of global political developments and geopolitical uncertainty on the growth inflation dynamics remains a risk," Nayar added. An HSBC report said three developments stand out -- softer growth numbers have trickled in recently, inflation has been falling, and the external environment has moved from rate hikes to cuts. "We believe the RBI doesn't gain from waiting any longer. We think it will change its stance from a hawkish 'withdrawal of accommodation' to 'neutral' in the upcoming 9 October policy meeting, followed by repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in the December and February meetings, taking the repo rate to 6 per cent," the report said. The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent in its August bi-monthly review amid risks from higher food inflation. This was the ninth consecutive MPC meeting, which decided to maintain the status quo on the rate front. Pradeep Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Signature Global (India) Limited, said while the real estate industry, developer community, and homebuyers are hoping for an interest rate cut in the upcoming monetary policy review, the RBI is likely to hold on to the interest rate cuts for the tenth consecutive time. "The apex bank still seems uncomfortable with the overall retail inflation scenario, particularly food inflation. As such, it is expected to maintain the status quo. The recent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has ignited similar hopes even in India, but the domestic scenario is very different," he added. SBM Bank India Head Treasury Mandar Pitale believed that the MPC has persistently advocated a restrictive policy until inflation aligns durably towards the 4 per cent target. "With the unfavourable base effect taking the next couple of CPI prints near 5 per cent plus or minus, it will pose a major challenge for MPC to start easing from the October meeting," Pitale said, adding that the MPC is also expected to deliberate upon the global factors like growth-inflation behaviour in developed economies. The government has appointed Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya, and Nagesh Kumar as external members of the MPC. They have replaced Ashima Goyal, Shashanka Bhide, and Jayanth R Varma. Apart from the Governor, the other internal members are the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Debabrata Patra and the Executive Director monetary policy department of RBI Rajiv Ranjan. In an off-cycle meeting in May 2022, the MPC raised the policy rate by 40 basis points and it was followed by rate hikes of varying sizes, in the subsequent meetings till February 2023. The repo rate was raised by 250 basis points cumulatively between May 2022 and February 2023.

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may begin lowering <keyword id="19950650" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rates" source="keywords">interest rates</keyword> around October, provided that external factors like weather conditions and international commodity prices do not cause any disruptions, the credit rating agency, Crisil said in its report. The credit rating agency further anticipated that it expects "two rate cuts this fiscal." It said that the decision of the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) decision to hold rates in its recent announcement was due to the elevated <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>. The climate conditions such as weather events are frequently changing and they need to be monitored. Going ahead, it anticipated that the macroeconomic environment would be better, creating a background for a rate cut. "The food challenge to a rate cut is expected to ease as agriculture prospects look better than last year. The monsoon has been above normal (7 per cent above the long period average as of August 7), and sowing has picked up across major foodgrains. As agriculture prospects become clearer by September, we expect it to pave the way for a rate cut," the S&amp;P's arm added in its report. In a move reflecting its cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, the RBI has decided to keep the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent. The decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword>, which remains above the RBI's target range. The central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 4 per cent target continues to face challenges due to ongoing food inflation and other economic factors. Noting a likely uptick in core inflation, the report added that factors such as international freight costs, geopolitical risks to crude oil prices, and hikes in domestic telecom tariffs could affect this indicator. Anticipating the growth, it added, "The pace of growth of the economy is expected to ease this year, with lower fiscal support as the government pursues <keyword id="20101140" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-consolidation" source="keywords">fiscal consolidation</keyword>." Announcing the MPC's decision on August 8, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das expected the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25. Governor Das emphasized that the RBI remains vigilant regarding inflationary pressures and will take necessary actions to maintain price stability while supporting the country's economic recovery. The MPC's decision reflects a balanced approach, aiming to control inflation without stifling growth. The adjustments in repo rate have a direct effect on <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and job creation. The lower interest rates tend to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper for businesses.

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

New Delhi [India], March 12 (ANI): The latest data released by the <keyword id="20070866" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="national-statistical-office" source="keywords">National Statistical Office</keyword> (<keyword id="20067517" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nso" source="keywords">NSO</keyword>), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), indicates a slight easing in retail inflation for the month of February 2024. According to the provisional figures provided by the NSO, the retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (General), stood at 5.09 per cent in February 2024. This marks a marginal decrease from 5.10 per cent recorded in January 2024. The combined inflation rate for rural and urban areas came down to 5.09 per cent from the previous month's 5.10 per cent. The data further reveals that the <keyword id="20931744" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-food-price" source="keywords">Consumer Food Price</keyword> Index (<keyword id="20931745" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="cfpi" source="keywords">CFPI</keyword>) witnessed a similar trend, with a slight decrease from 8.30 per cent in January 2024 to 8.21 per cent in February 2024. Both rural and urban areas experienced a dip in food inflation, indicating a marginal relief for consumers across the board. The monthly changes in the General Indices and CFPIs show a negligible increase of 0.16 per cent in the combined CPI (General) and 0.11 per cent in the CFPI from January 2024 to February 2024. This indicates a relatively stable price movement in essential goods and services during the said period. The NSO collects price data from a vast sample size, covering both rural and urban markets across all states and union territories. During February 2024, data was collected from 100 per cent of villages and 98.5 per cent of urban markets. The comprehensive coverage ensures that the inflation figures are representative of the diverse consumption patterns across the country. In terms of the subgroup analysis, notable trends were observed in various categories. Cereals and products, meat and fish, and egg prices showed moderate increases, contributing to the overall inflation rate. On the other hand, certain items like oils and fats experienced a decline in prices, exerting downward pressure on inflation. The NSO has also provided state-wise inflation data, highlighting the varying price dynamics across different regions. States like <keyword id="19896313" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="andhra-pradesh" source="keywords">Andhra Pradesh</keyword>, Telangana, and <keyword id="19896558" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tamil-nadu" source="keywords">Tamil Nadu</keyword> recorded relatively higher inflation rates, while states like Delhi and Maharashtra witnessed a more subdued inflationary environment. Looking ahead, the NSO has announced that the next release of CPI data for March 2024 is scheduled for April 12, 2024. This continued transparency in reporting inflation figures enables policymakers and stakeholders to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies. (ANI)

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Inflation heated up in October as expected

Madison Hoff

Repo rate cut unlikely in ongoing MPC meeting, but RBI may change it during October policy review: Experts

ANI

Status-quo on interest rate likely, say experts ahead of RBI's policy review

PTI

RBI expected to begin rate cuts in October, with two reductions this fiscal: Crisil

ANI

Retail inflation eases to 5.09% in February 2024

ANI

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