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<ul><li>All surveys predict a comfortable lead for the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi </li><li>The average of all polls project a majority for NDA with 276 out of 543 Parliamentary seats</li><li>Opinion polls in the past have underestimated the number of seats bagged by the winner by 8%</li></ul>It's election season in India, a time when business peaks for surveyors and pollsters. While the credibility of opinion polls is often brought to question, their strike rate in predicting the winner of Parliamentary elections has been very high at 97%. However, the success rate in estimating the number of seats that the winning side may bag is as low as 62%, according to data compiled by veteran journalist Prannoy Roy and election researcher Dorab Sopariwala in their new book 'The Verdict'. And in nearly three-fourths of all elections -- Parliament and state-- the pollsters have sided with caution and underestimated the winner's final tally. For the upcoming elections in 2019, opinion polls, so far, have unanimously projected a comfortable lead for the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to which Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs. The alliance is likely to get more seats than any other rival, but pollsters are divided on whether it will be able to secure a majority like it did in 2014. These are early days and public mood is known to swing sharply closer to the elections. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 To estimate what the final picture may look like on May 23, let's look at the average of all four surveys. That seems to suggest that the incumbent coalition under Narendra Modi may indeed get re-elected with a majority. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The rise in number of seats in favour of the NDA is in sync with the broad <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/post-pulwama-pm-narendra-modis-ratings-rise-by-7-to-52-poll/articleshow/68350217.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">consensus</a> that the Modi government benefited from the recent escalation of tensions with Pakistan. He has definitely used the spotlight on him to garner as many votes as possible by riling up nationalist sentiments and portraying himself as a strong leader who is not afraid of combat. The projected margin of seats above the half-way mark is still just four. The average under-estimation of the winning party by pollsters in Parliamentary election is about 8%, according to Roy and Sopariwala. If that were to be true in the upcoming elections, the NDA may even land up with 298 seats. Now, a number that high may trigger scepticism. While the nationalist fervour in India may help Modi, past <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/will-air-strikes-help-narendra-modi-this-is-how-wars-have-impacted-govts/articleshow/68374595.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">experience</a> shows that such conflicts with Pakistan have not led to decisive electoral gains. The BJP won only 23.75% of the votes cast after the Kargil conflict with Pakistan in 1999, whereas in 2014, when there was no semblance of a war, the party bagged 31.3% of the votes. Further, the Modi government has lost a lot of support since the sweeping win in 2014 due to a variety of reasons. A flagging <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/beyond-india-latest-gdp-data-the-real-cues-about-the-economy/articleshow/68179264.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">economy</a> and lack of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/a-hidden-jobs-survey-in-india-casts-doubt-on-data-integrity-under-narendra-modi-government/articleshow/67750383.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">jobs</a>, the government's alleged <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/108-economists-and-academics-just-asked-the-indian-government-to-stop-interfering-with-economic-data/articleshow/68420732.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">attempts</a> to dress-up economic data, ill-advised <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-government-wants-you-to-believe-that-demonetisation-didnt-slow-down-the-economy/articleshow/67785050.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">demonetisation</a>, persistent <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-rural-distress-just-went-from-bad-to-worse/articleshow/67431091.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">farm distress</a>, and rise in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/violence-cost-indias-economy-9-of-its-gdp-last-year/articleshow/64635460.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">communal polarisation and violence</a> among other issues have dented the government's chances. This was clearly visible in the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/here-are-some-reasons-why-indias-ruling-party-lost-to-its-main-rival-in-three-very-important-state-elections/articleshow/67057122.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">state election results</a> that were held in the closing months of 2018. The swing in voter sentiment in a smaller region tended to be duplicated around the country, British social scientist Sir David Butler explained in the foreword to Roy and Sopariwala's book. That would explain the sharp fall in the projected number of seats to the NDA in 2019 compared to the 336 it scored in 2014. Indeed, Modi's popularity is a shadow of its past while his rivals are on an upswing but, if pollsters are to be believed, the incumbents are still comfortably ahead of the others. On the other side, hectic parleys are underway between opposition parties to eke out a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lok-sabha-polls-2019-will-it-be-mahagathbandhan-or-multiple-gathbandhans-of-opposition-parties/videoshow/68376009.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">winning combination</a>. In India, an election is as much a numbers game as it is about ideology. Political expediency, caste, region and religion-based affiliations can often turn out to be the deciding factors. The game is far from over. There will be more surveys and polls in the days to come and we will be watching. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/108-economists-and-academics-just-asked-the-indian-government-to-stop-interfering-with-economic-data/articleshow/68420732.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">108 economists and academics just asked the Indian government to stop interfering with economic data</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/whatsapp-new-feature-curb-fake-news-general-elections-2019/articleshow/68425830.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">New Whatsapp feature may allow you to check if images are real or fake</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/election-2019-mysore-paints-only-supplier-of-ballot-ink-in-india-has-received-330-million-order-from-election-commission/articleshow/68424147.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">This 82-year-old company will make ₹330 million from the upcoming elections by supplying ballot ink</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/voting-in-indias-2019-elections-will-run-from-april-11-to-may-19-and-the-results-will-be-out-on-may-23/articleshow/68344595.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Voting in India's 2019 elections will run from April 11 to May 19 and the results will be counted on May 23</a>

Is India's 2019 election really a foregone conclusion?

New Delhi [India], July 24 (ANI): Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> on Wednesday lashed out at the opposition's claim that the budget was 'discriminatory' and said that it was an '<keyword id="22528799" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Outrageous-allegation" source="Orion">outrageous allegation</keyword>' and a deliberate attempt by the opposition parties led by the Congress to give the people the wrong impression that their states were not allocated funds or schemes. The Finance Minister reacted after Leader of Opposition <keyword id="19897159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Mallikarjun-Kharge" source="keywords">Mallikarjun Kharge</keyword> made claims that the budget was discriminatory towards the states of the country. Speaking in the Rajya Sabha, the Finance Minister said, "It is unfortunate that the opposition, particularly a senior leader, Mallikarjun Kharge, stood up to say what he heard of the budget yesterday. Now that the leader of the opposition raised issues on the budget, which was presented and tabled in the house yesterday." "Just to the point he raised, I have not named many states and only spoken of two states. There are a few points I would like to make here as to what happens in a speech. The Congress party has been in power for a very long time in this country and they have presented so many budgets that they would know clearly that in every budget, you don't get an opportunity to name every state of this country," she said. "I'll take this example: between the vote on account which was presented on February 1 this year and the full budget that was presented yesterday for this year, I have not named very many states. The Cabinet, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, decided to set up a port at Vadhvan, but Maharashtra's name was not included in the budget yesterday. Does this mean that Maharashtra feels ignored?" she said. The Finance Minister said that 76 thousand crores have been announced for Mahrashtra for that project. "Maharashtra's name was not taken on vote-on-account. The state's name was not mentioned even yesterday; does that mean the state got ignored?" she stated. Adding further, she said, "And I can take the name of so many different states that have so many major projects. If the speech does not mention the name of a particular state, does that mean the schemes and programmes of the government of India, the externally aided assistance that we obtain from the World Bank, ADB, AIB and so on, do not go to these states?" "They go as per routine, and, in the expenditure statement of the government, the department-wise allocation of the government mentions all this," she stated. "I am saying with responsibility that this is a 'deliberate attempt' of the opposition parties led by the Congress to give the people the wrong impression that their states were not allocated funds or schemes," said Sitharaman. Challenging the Congress, the Finance Minister said, "I would challenge the Congress party that for all the budget speeches they have delivered. Have they named every state of the country in each of their budget speeches? This is an outrageous allegation," she stated. This comes after Mallikarjun Kharge condemned the budget presented yesterday and claimed that no other states other than Andhra Pradesh and Bihar received anything. "Sabke thali khali aur sirf do ke thali mai pakoda aur jalebi. Ye do states ko chodkar, kisi ko kuch nai mila. Neither Tamil Nadu Kerala nor Karnataka got anything. Neither Maharashtra nor Punjab or Rajasthan and neither Chhattisgarh," he said. "Even Delhi did not receive anything nor did Odisha. I have not seen this kind of budget until now. This budget has been presented only to keep some people happy and it has all been done save their chairs, 'Kursi bachane ke liye' kiya gaya. We condemn this budget and protest against it. The whole of INDIA bloc condemns this," said Kharge. Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA bloc MPs held a protest in the Parliament complex on Wednesday, against the <keyword id="6360189" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="union-budget" source="Orion">Union Budget</keyword>, presented on Tuesday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. "Opposition virodhi kursi bachao Budget murda baad" slogans were raised by the INDIA bloc leaders as they protested holding placards in the Parliament building, claiming that the Budget is "discriminatory" in nature. Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, Congress MP Sonia Gandhi, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, party General Secretary KC Venugopal, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, TMC MP Dola Sen were seen participating in the protest.

"Outrageous allegation!": Nirmala Sitharaman reacts to opposition protesting budget, labeling it 'discriminatory'

New Delhi [India], June 4 (ANI): With counting slated for today for the <keyword id="19923279" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha-elections" source="keywords">Lok Sabha elections</keyword>, which have seen the largest voter participation, the electoral fate of several leaders across the political spectrum will be decided. Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword>, Home Minister <keyword id="19899491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Amit-Shah" source="keywords">Amit Shah</keyword> and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh are among the senior BJP leaders in the fray. Key opposition leaders, including former Congress chief <keyword id="19895780" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rahul-Gandhi" source="keywords">Rahul Gandhi</keyword>, NCP's <keyword id="20083020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Supriya-Sule" source="keywords">Supriya Sule</keyword> and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, are also contesting the poll. <div type="javascript" title="Custom" contenttype="Infographic"><cdata><![CDATA[]]></cdata></div> Here is a look at some key contests involving prominent leaders: 1. Narendra Modi: Prime Minister Modi, is seeking a third term from Varanasi, the constituency that paved his way to the Lok Sabha after his stint as Chief Minister. He is pitted against Congress leader and INDIA bloc candidate Ajay Rai. PM Modi won the seat by huge margins in 2014 and 2019. 2. Amit Shah: The Union Home Minister entered the Lok Sabha in 2019 from Gandhinagar and is seeking his second straight term from the seat, which has been held by BJP veterans in the past. Shah, who earlier served as BJP President, is against Congress candidate Sonal Patel. 3. Rahul Gandhi: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is contesting the Lok Sabha elections from two seats -- Wayanad and Raebareli. Gandhi, who lost the family bastion seat of Amethi in 2019 and entered the Lok Sabha from Wayanad, is aiming to maintain the party's lone bastion left in the state. He is up against BJP's Dinesh Pratap Singh and BJP's K. Surendran, as well as CPI-M's Annie Raja in Wayanad. 4. Supriya Sule and <keyword id="20734555" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sunetra-pawar" source="keywords">Sunetra Pawar</keyword>: The Baramati constituency is another 'hot seat' that will decide the future of the 'Pawar' legacy. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule is against his cousin Ajit Pawar's wife, Sunetra Pawar, from the seat. The exit polls have predicted a tight contest. 5. <keyword id="42749" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shashi-Tharoor" source="Orion">Shashi Tharoor</keyword>: Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, who is a three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram, is facing a three-way contest against BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar and CPI-M's Panniyan Ravindran. The exit polls have predicted a tight contest. 6. K. Annamalai: BJP Tamil Nadu chief and rising face in the south, K Annamalai, is aiming to make the party's inroads in the state. Contesting from Coimbatore, the former cop is up against DMK leader Ganapathy P Rajkumar and AIADMK's Singai Ramachandran. 7. Rajnath Singh: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is seeking a third term from Lucknow. The former Uttar Pradesh CM served as the Home Minister in BJP's first term and Defence Minister in the second term. Singh is facing SP candidate Ravidas Mehrotra and BSP candidate Sarwar Malik. 8. Abhishek Banerjee: As the BJP is aiming to make further inroads in West Bengal, and TMC is looking to maintain its fortress, TMC general secretary and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's nephew Abhishek Banerjee is contesting from Diamond Harbour seeking a second term from the seat. Banerjee is pitted against CPI(M) candidate Pratikur Rahaman and BJP's Abhijit Das. 9. Akhilesh Yadav: Former Uttar Pradesh CM and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav made a surprise entry in the Lok Sabha polls, announcing his candidature from Kannauj. Yadav, who is an MLA from Karhal assembly constituency, is facing incumbent MP and BJP leader Subrat Pathak. 10. Asaduddin Owaisi: The Hyderabad constituency is bracing for a big showdown with four-time MP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen chief Asaduddin Owaisi facing a challenge against BJP candidate and actor-turned-politician Madhavi Latha. The Lok Sabha elections for 543 seats of the lower house were held across seven phases. The counting of votes will take place on Tuesday, June 4. The Bharatiya Janata Party is eyeing a third straight term in power, while the Opposition under the umbrella of the INDIA bloc is seeking to wrest power from the ruling party. Meanwhile, all the exit polls have predicted the BJP returning to power with a resounding majority, with further inroads in Odisha, West Bengal, and southern states.

From Modi and Shah to Gandhi and Tharoor, here's a look at some key Lok Sabha seats ahead of election results

Kerala winner candidate MP list in Lok Sabha Elections 2019

The war between the ruling party and the opposition over Prime Minister <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Narendra+Modi&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Narendra </a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=Narendra+Modi&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Modi</a>’s demonetisation move continues and relating to that, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=rahul%20gandhi&amp;sortorder=score">Rahul Gandhi</a>, <keyword id="1575" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Congress">Congress</keyword> vice-president, accused the government of helping <keyword id="6356023" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="Black-Money">black money</keyword> hoarders with the amendment to the <keyword id="6354751" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Income-Tax">Income Tax</keyword> Act, saying half of the unaccounted cash would now be returned to them. 
 He, outside <keyword id="6354721" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="parliament">parliament</keyword> said that the government has given 50 per cent of the black money back to hoarders again. 
 
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=lok+sabha&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Lok sabha</a>, recently passed the Taxation Laws (2nd Amendment) Bill and it provided a window to legalise black money after paying tax on the amount post-demonetisation. As per the Bill, those who disclose black money to banks will have to pay 50 per cent tax, including surcharge and penalty. 
 <keyword id="5268" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Rahul-Gandhi">Rahul Gandhi</keyword> when asked about the walkout by the opposition MPs in the <keyword id="6355187" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Lok-Sabha">Lok Sabha</keyword>, said, "There is a practice in Parliament that whenever someone dies we respect them. This is for the first time that there was no such obituary offered for those soldiers who had died (in Nagrota attack). So the Opposition walked out." 
 
Opposition members walked out of the Lok Sabha as their demand for an obituary reference on the soldiers who died in the terror attack on army camp in Jammu was rejected by the Speaker on the grounds that final details were yet to emerge. 
 
Countering Rahul's charges, Information and Broadcasting Minister M Venkaiah Naidu said, "It is unfortunate that Congress is doing politics over the issue involving defence of the country." 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Government will give 50% of the black money back to hoarders: Rahul Gandhi

<ul><li>A historic win will make Narendra Modi the first non-Congress Prime Minister to get re-elected.</li><li>This was the first time since 1984 a majority government has been re-elected.</li><li>Visit <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Business Insider India's home page</a> for more stories</li></ul>Narendra Modi has created history by becoming the first non-Congress Prime Minister to get re-elected in the 72 years of India's independence. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in 353 seats compared to its rival the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) that is ahead in 90 seats. The BJP made history even five years back when it clocked in a full majority, the first for any government since 1984. A full majority twice in a row is an even bigger feat for Modi and the BJP. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 No single rival was fighting Modi to win on his/her own. A motley crew of former foes were waiting for the final tally before they could stitch a suitable coalition that would end Modi's reign. However, as the counting progressed on May 23, it became evident very early that the the room for any political manoeuvre was limited, and eventually, even that disappeared. The Indian National Congress, the only national party other than the BJP, nearly doubled its seat count in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's Parliament, but for Rahul Gandhi, Congress' President, could not escape the embarrassment of having lost a seat, Amethi, that was seen as family bastion for decades. A grand alliance of regional parties, led by Bahujan Samaj Party's Mayawati and Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, pitched itself as an alternative to Modi's strongman vibe. However, the camaraderie failed to strike a chord with the voters of Uttar Pradesh-- India's most populous state that is home to these two parties. The music stopped for the Mahagathbandhan when hoards of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/narendra-modi-varanasi-up-lok-sabha-election-result-2019/articleshow/69455114.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">people in Varanasi</a> danced to Modi's tunes on April 25. The final result for the grand alliance were 15 Lok Sabha seats. Modi's rivals cried against the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/indias-government-wants-you-to-believe-that-demonetisation-didnt-slow-down-the-economy/articleshow/67785050.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">whimsical demonetisation</a>, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/unemployment-in-india-is-at-its-highest-in-45-years-says-an-indian-daily-citing-an-undisclosed-jobs-survey/articleshow/67769020.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">peaking unemployment</a>, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/congress-promises-farm-loan-waiver-after-bjp-offers-minimum-income-support-in-budget-2019/articleshow/67827116.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">mounting farm distress</a>, and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/patriot-act-godse-debate-kamal-haasan-vs-sadhvi-pragya-bjp/articleshow/69372552.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">uneasy polarisation</a>, but none of that left as much as a scratch on Modi's chances. Even the alleged scandal in the government deal to buy 36 Rafale fighter jets did not cut ice with the country's voters. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The adolescent Indian democracy was looking for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/jlf-gandhi-vs-modi-bjp-vs-congress-dont-understand-indian-voters/articleshow/67685811.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">a Presidential clash</a> but the opposition could not nominate a powerful alternative to Modi. The writing was on the wall but the regional satraps and national figureheads continued playing hardball with each other, and the potential of a desperate <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/the-avengers-endgame-lesson-for-modi-rahul-gandhis-congress-and-mahagathbandhan/articleshow/69138766.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">anti-Modi coalition</a> was never fully realised. The momentum was so strong in Modi's favour that even the terror accused Sadhvi Pragya Thakur-- who was also reprimanded for calling <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/patriot-act-godse-debate-kamal-haasan-vs-sadhvi-pragya-bjp/articleshow/69372552.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Mahatma Gandhi's assassin Nathuram Godse a 'patriot'</a>-- <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sadhvi-pragya-thakur-vs-dijvijaya-singh-bhopal-lok-sabha-election-results-2019/articleshow/69456794.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">won Bhopal with a huge margin</a>. The north-south divide The Modi wave was strong and pervasive but it limited largely to the north of India. The wave <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/exit-polls-2019-no-modi-wave-in-tamil-nadu-karnataka-kerala/articleshow/69402617.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">once again lost momentum</a> south of the Vindhya range of mountains, despite its best efforts. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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 The BJP definitely improved its tally in Karnataka but it could not make any further headway into the other four major states-- Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. While the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) swept Tamil Nadu with 31 out of 39 seats, Jaganmohan Reddy's victory in Andhra Pradesh marked <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/ap-andhra-pradesh-assembly-elections-2019-jagan-reddys-win-marks-the-rise-of-the-prodigal-son/articleshow/69462170.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">the rise of the prodigal son</a>. Reddy's immediate neighbour to the west, K Chandrshekhar Rao successfully <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/telangana-lok-sabha-election-result-2019-trs-vs-congress-vs-tdp-vs-bjp/articleshow/69445813.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">protected his territory</a>, Telangana, for a second time in less than a year. Rao called for a premature assembly election in Telangana in 2018 and came out of it with flying colours. The only other place Modi faced <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/the-tmc-and-bjp-are-fighting-over-the-nrc-in-west-bengal/articleshow/69194392.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">any challenge was in West Bengal</a>. Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee did not pretend to play nice as BJP marched on to claim the eastern state. The clash of titans stirred the volatile electorate with a long history of violence. The BJP may have ended up second in the state but it bagged 18 precious seats that established the party as a serious player in the state for the first time ever. None of this was a surprise. BJP smelled the resentment against the local leadership in the east, and invested itself heavily. Modi himself addressed 17 rallies in Bengal, the most after Uttar Pradesh. The party cadre was funded and fuelled in Odisha and the north-eastern states and all of this paid off rich dividends, much on expected lines. Swinging states Six months earlier, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/here-are-some-reasons-why-indias-ruling-party-lost-to-its-main-rival-in-three-very-important-state-elections/articleshow/67057122.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">BJP had to face defeat in state elections</a> in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. The party had just whisked past the halfway mark in Gujarat, Modi's home state. These results rejuvenated the Congress and, may be, made it a bit complacent too. Within six months, the same states swung back to voting for the BJP. In Modi's home state Gujarat, the BJP is leading in all 26 seats, in 9 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, and in all but one seat in MP-- a stark contrast to the picture of struggle in the assembly elections in December. In Bihar too, the NDA is miles ahead of competition-- leading in 32 out of the state's 40 seats-- including in high-profile constituencies like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/kanhaiya-kumar-vs-giriraj-singh-begusarai-lok-sabha-election-result-2019/articleshow/69453161.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Begusarai</a> and Patna Sahib. Debutante politician Kanhaiya Kumar, from the Communist Party of India (Marxist), has less than half the number of votes as rival from BJP, the veteran Giriraj Singh, who was also a minister in Modi's government. In Patna Sahib, sitting Parliamentarian Shatrughan Sinha is trailing Union Telecom Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad, who has over 55% of the votes. There 17 other candidates in this constituency. Congress' solace Congress is leading in Punjab and Kerala, while its biggest ally the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is cornering maximum votes in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala's Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi is ahead with 67% of the votes where there are 20 other candidates. It was a face saver for Gandhi as he lost the family bastion Amethi to the firebrand from BJP, Smriti Irani. India’s markets celebrated the results. The Sensex hit <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sensex-rallies-550-points-as-bjp-leads-convincingly-in-vote-counting/articleshow/69458099.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">the 40,000 mark for the first time ever</a> as investors hoped that the stability of continuing policies may the give the economy the much-needed fillip. His electoral feats and political might notwithstanding, those who care for it will blame Modi for demonetisation forever. Modi may have pitched himself as a pro-business reformer but experts have expressed fear that if he gets a second term, his policies are likely to be more socialist and akin to the proposals of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/opinion/india-elections-modi.html">Bernie Sanders in the US</a>, and not like the policies of Ronald Reagan. Nonetheless, the baton remains with Modi. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india-election-results-fii-watch-narendra-modis-new-cabinet-and-policy-decisions/articleshow/69479558.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Foreign investors are thrilled about Modi's win but don't know what to expect from him</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international-leaders-are-already-congratulating-narendra-modi-for-victory-in-indias-general-election/articleshow/69461194.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Naveen Patnaik’s BJD leads in Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in early trends</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/ap-andhra-pradesh-assembly-elections-2019-jagan-reddys-win-marks-the-rise-of-the-prodigal-son/articleshow/69462170.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Jagan Reddy’s win marks the rise of the prodigal son</a>

Narendra Modi has retained India's iron throne and reduced rivals to dust

India’s main opposition party The Indian National Congress has raised the stakes for the incumbent Narendra Modi government. On Monday, Congress president <keyword id="5268" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rahul-Gandhi">Rahul Gandhi</keyword> promised a minimum income guarantee for every poor person if the party won the 2019 elections. The Modi administration is also reportedly preparing to unveil its own income support in the upcoming interim budget. What is the promise from Congress President Rahul Gandhi? Congress has promised to give the country’s poor a minimum amount of money from the government as monthly income, but hasn’t specified how much it will be. Is it the same as universal basic income (UBI)? It is unlikely to be the same as UBI, which by definition would mean an assured amount of money from the government to every citizen of the country. However, minimum income guarantee may only be available to people below a certain income threshold. How much will it cost the government? It is difficult to ascertain the cost without the details of the programme. India’s total population is 1.36 billion, of which 22% of people below poverty line. Assuming that the government supports only those below the poverty line, it will still have to pay nearly 300 million people a fixed sum of money every month. India Ratings estimates that the BJP's potential income support scheme, to be released in its budget, could end up costing at least ₹1.5 trillion a year - or 0.7% of GDP - in the absence of other support schemes. Separately, SBI’s Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh recently <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/what-if-interim-budget-2019-replaces-subsidy-with-cash-transfer/articleshow/67658379.cms">estimated</a> that about 143 million farmers get one kind of subsidy or another. Accounting for possible omissions for lack of proper identification of beneficiaries and for those who have no land or documentation, the report said that the cost of giving direct cash transfer in lieu of subsidy will be about ₹1.2 trillion a year. Meanwhile, Pranab Bardhan, professor of graduate school at the department of economics, University of California, Berkeley, estimated that if a scheme like the UBI were to be implemented, the government would have to pay ₹16,000 per household and it would cost ₹2.1 trillion a year, or 1.25% of the gross domestic product (GDP). Government has 940 centrally sponsored schemes, according to a <a href="http://www.iitd.ac.in/CEAIITD/pdfs/3/MOOC_Sub&amp;UBI_14Jun_v10.pdf">report </a>from former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian in 2016. According to that estimate, the cost of giving every citizen some money every month would cost the exchequer about 4-5% of GDP. Who will bear the cost? If the central government raises taxes on the rich, the additional burden will be on the really well-off. However, it may affect the political donations that help parties fight elections. Raising the burden of middle-class taxpayer may have a political cost and won't win votes. If the government borrows money to fund additional expense, the burden will be on every taxpayer in the form of higher interest cost, weaker rupee and higher inflation. Can India afford such a huge burden? In theory, something like a minimum income guarantee can be funded by three ways: withdrawing or reducing existing subsidies or by raising taxes on richer sections of the people. So to give poor people given minimum income, would everyone else lose subsidies or pay more tax? Not necessarily. And certainly, no one will lose all subsidies. The subsidies available from the state governments will continue. If at all, only the central government subsidies may be withdrawn once it implements minimum income guarantee. So, if you live in Tamil Nadu or Punjab and get subsidised electricity, that will likely continue. Raising taxes will be a different matter. So which of the central government subsidies remain? As of now, the biggest subsidies that the central government offers are on food, fuel, fertilisers, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) cooking cylinders, as well as on tax and interest rates to specific sections of the population. One cannot say for sure how the government chooses to rationalise the existing subsidies. Can they withdraw food subsidy? Unlikely. Food subsidies are made available through the public distribution system, or ration shops, and are unlikely to be dismantled. 52.3% of all households purchased cereals from ration shops in 2011-12 compared to 27% in 2004-05, according to a Niti Aayog <a href="https://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Final%20PDS%20Report-new.pdf">report</a> from 2016. It won’t be a politically savvy move to increase the cost of food for half of the country’s households in one go. India also has a law that gives every citizen a right to affordable food, with the National Food Security Act 2013. So no government can withdraw food security without going back to the Parliament for permission. Do we still get fuel subsidy? While petrol and diesel prices have been deregulated, kerosene prices are subsidised as it is used mostly by the very poor and bought at ration shops. While the cost of kerosene subsidy was budgeted in February 2018 at about ₹4,500 crore, withdrawing the support will only hurt the poorest. What about the subsidy on cooking gas? The subsidy on LPG cooking cylinders is already transferred online to the eligible buyers. Current prime minister Narendra Modi pushed millions of Indians to adopt LPG cylinders instead of coal hearths. [hyperlink] Now, it will be a politically sensitive decision for any party to withdraw benefits on basic necessities like LPG, especially after literally forcing them to use it. What about fertilisers? Fertiliser subsidies are once again availed by farmers and the recent rural distress will make it difficult for the government to withdraw any farm subsidy. Moreover, India <a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/india-to-continue-importing-fertiliser-in-medium-term-ind-ra-study/article24679053.ece">imports</a> 28% of all the fertilisers it needs, according to India Ratings and Research. On one hand the global prices of fertilisers have been rising, and the weaker rupee has made these imported fertilisers even more expensive. Withdrawing fertiliser subsidy will make farmers really angry. What about health and education subsidy? Ayushman Bharat, a scheme that was launched in 2018, is a centrally sponsored insurance programme targeting 10 crore families across India who are either poor and deprived or identified as urban workers' families. It covers hospitalisation cost up to ₹5 lakhs a year, and is likely to continue. Primary health centres are at funded by state governments. Central government subsidises higher education in places like IITs, IIMs, AIIMS, JNU etc, which are also likely to stay. What are interest subsidies? Often, the state-owned banks offer cheap loans to different sections of the population and the government bears the difference in interest rate. But don’t India’s farmers already get a lot of subsidies? Yes, India’s farmers are entitled to minimum support (MSP) price on their produce. Even if the market price of the crop is less than the MSP, the government is supposed to make for the difference. However, while many governments have either promised or increased the MSP, the <a href="https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/msp-kharif-crops-narendra-modi-minimum-support-price-gst-farmers-5270286/">net impact </a>on the farmers has been minimal. “No matter how hard the government tries, it cannot procure even 25% of the production of various kharif crops, except in paddy and cotton, as a robust procurement system does not exist for other crops,” experts at Indian Council For Research On International Economic Relations commented in July 2018. Therefore, withdrawing key subsidies, including those on fertilisers or interest on loans, will make the minimum income guarantee a zero-sum offer for the farmers. Will MGNREGA continue? Yes, it’s an employment guarantee scheme, not a subsidy. People are assured a certain number of days of work every year, for which they are paid. Is the Congress' promise a political gimmick? Minimum income guarantee will allow poor people to poor people to access basic necessities. Of course, this is assuming that the minimum amount given to the people is enough to cover their basic expenses. Further, the government will have to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to implement a massive programme like this in a complex country like India. The biggest problem in India is that it is very difficult to accurately identify those who need such a programme. So to analyse the merits of the promise, we will need more details. See more <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/Presidential-ego-or-a-dynasts-charm-what-Indian-voters-like-is-still-a-mystery-to-the-countrys-politicians/articleshow/67685811.cms">Presidential ego or a dynast’s charm — what Indian voters like is still a mystery to the country’s politicians</a>

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