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If there is one word to aptly describe the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha <keyword id="20515965" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="election-results" source="keywords">election results</keyword>, specifically for the incumbent party, it would be jolting, startling, and perhaps, even surprising. The exit polls were wide off the mark, and then some. Less than a week ago, India reported a remarkable <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> rate of 8.2% for the fiscal year 2023-24. Over the weekend, exit polls predicted a clear and easy majority for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance NDA. Consequently, benchmark indexes, Sensex and <keyword id="6354813" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="Orion">Nifty</keyword>, both zoomed more than 3 per cent on Monday, breaching the all-time high records. On Tuesday, the tides turned! Putting a harsh full stop on the ruling party’s “abki baar 400 paar” narrative, the electoral situation on Tuesday evening shows less than 300 seats to the NDA and over 230 seats to the opposing INDIA bloc. What’s even more concerning for the ruling party is its tally dropping from 303 in 2019 to less than 245 this year. Consequently, on Tuesday, Sensex witnessed the steepest drop in over four years since the pandemic, recording a drop of 4,389 to settle just over 72,000. Nifty also dipped by almost 6%, standing at 21,884 points. If the trends hold, the BJP will lack a clear, simple majority on its own for the next five years, even if it manages to form a government with its pre-poll allies. The question is, how stable the new government would be, what would be the overall impact of this verdict on India’s economy, and what’s the story behind the jitters exhibited by the markets on Tuesday? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="India’s incredible economic growth story" comment="subhead" text="India’s incredible economic growth story">India’s incredible <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> story </cmsannotation>Perched to be the world’s 3rd largest economy by 2027, India’s current GDP value stands at $3.9 trillion. As per FM <keyword id="20200167" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Seetharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Seetharaman</keyword>, the Indian economy is anticipated to grow at a rate of close to 7% in FY25 and hit $7 trillion by 2030. The <keyword id="3530620" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-Value-Added" source="Orion">Gross Value Added</keyword> (GVA) data supports the optimistic outlook, with a growth rate of 7.2% in FY24 compared to 6.7% in FY23. And notably, this strong economic growth has come at a time when most of the major economies across the globe are grappling with a slowdown. While few expect India to maintain a robust growth of 8.2%, most economists agree that GDP growth could moderate to around 7% in FY25. But most of these growth forecasts are contingent on a stable government and policy reforms at the centre. So, does the sharp fall in benchmark indices on Tuesday foretell a twist in India’s growth story? <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Is there a twist in the tale?" comment="subhead" text="Is there a twist in the tale?">Is there a twist in the tale? </cmsannotation>Firstly, the <keyword id="16791710" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-portfolio-inflows" source="Orion">foreign portfolio inflows</keyword> (FPI), indicative of the global confidence reposed in the Indian markets, have been on a consistent decline over the past 3 months. As of 4th June 2024, foreign institutional investors had withdrawn a total of Rs 14,339 crores from the Indian equity markets while investing Rs 55,273 crores in debt instruments, which are traditionally reflective of safety, security, and a low-risk and change appetite. Foreign institutional investors had also withdrawn Rs 25,586 crores during May 2024, and Rs 8,671 crores during April 2024. If anything, the Indian market stands atop the strong confidence of domestic investors. The AUM (assets under management) of the Indian mutual fund industry stood at a record high of around $57 lakh crores in April 2024, even as the SIP AUM hit a record high of Rs 11.26 lakh crore. "The steep fall is due to the results so far falling short of the exit polls which the market had discounted yesterday. If BJP doesn't get a majority on its own there will be disappointment and this is getting reflected in the market. Also it is possible that Modi 3.O may not be as reform-oriented as the market expected and may turn more welfare- oriented," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail" comment="subhead" text="Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail">Cautiously optimistic investors could prevail </cmsannotation>But does this mean India’s growth story stands threatened or even jeopardized? Even though social media is flooded with memes that might lead one to believe it is all over for India’s story, the country remains the fastest growing economy amongst all G-20 nations in 2024, compelling almost all rating agencies to positively hike the country’s potential growth rate. But, equally noticeable is the fact that India’s private consumption, a major indicator of the economy’s growth, jumped by only 3.5% over the last 3 months of 2024. India now makes up 6.7% of the world’s GDP by purchasing power parity (PPP). As figures go, India is set to become a $10 trillion economy by 2030. Veteran investors like Raamdeo Agrawal, who heads Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believe that India’s potential growth rate of 8-8.5% is not going anywhere and that NDA’s leadership is here to stay. In his words, if an investor has managed to make 4-5x in the last 3-4 years, one will have to give in 20-30%. But that is where you will have to persist as an investor. "With the NDA still looking to form a government, though with the important support of coalition partners, markets look jittery about the prospects of strong decision making. Markets believe that the reformistic approach, which was a hallmark of the previous two terms, might take a backseat in the third term. However, our sense is that it is still early to jump to conclusions and should ideally wait for a clearer picture," said Manish Chowdhury, Head of Research, StoxBox. But all in all, the NDA government is most likely to stay for the full term, and those who bet on the same stand to stay safe despite the surprisingly strong performance of the INDIA alliance. However, in the end, the only one who wins in the market stays put in the market in the long run. Because NDA, or INDIA, compounding is here to stay, all set to immensely benefit long-term investors. (With inputs ANI)

Economic implications of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results: Would lack of a clear majority for BJP impact India’s growth story?

<ul><li>Leaving behind 18 year old ties with the Indian National Congress, <keyword id="29632" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jyotiraditya-Scindia">Jyotiraditya Scindia</keyword> joined the ruling <keyword id="58687" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bharatiya-Janata-Party">Bharatiya Janata Party</keyword> (BJP) on Wednesday (March 11). </li><li>Scindia owns properties worth ₹297 crore — including the ancestral <keyword id="8073664" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jai-Vilas-Mahal">Jai Vilas Mahal</keyword> in Gwalior and duplex in <keyword id="136034" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Samudra-Mahal">Samudra Mahal</keyword>, Mumbai. </li><li>Built in 1874, the palace was valued at ₹1 crore back then — and costs over ₹4,000 crore today. </li><li>The Scindia family own two properties in Samudra Mahal, one of which is rented out to the <keyword id="45660" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Yes-Bank">Yes Bank</keyword> founder <keyword id="128581" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rana-Kapoor">Rana Kapoor</keyword>. The two highrises of 27-storeys each are valued at ₹125,000 per square feet.</li></ul>Leaving behind 18 year old ties with the Indian National Congress, Jyotiraditya Scindia joined the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Wednesday (March 11). His resignation turned out to be a turbulence in the Congress government — triggering resignations from 22 other MLAs in Madhya Pradesh. 
 <div type="image" title="sc" msid="74603964" hostid="261"></div>



 Scindia who hails from a family of royals is not a stranger to riches. He owns properties worth ₹297 crore — including the ancestral Jai Vilas Mahal in Gwalior and duplex in Samudra Mahal, Mumbai. The Jai Vilas Palace, which was built by the last maharaja of <keyword id="4447396" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="gwalior-jivajirao-scindia">Gwalior Jivajirao Scindia</keyword> spans across 40 acres. The mahal has over 400 rooms and a museum wing as well. 
 <div type="image" title="vilas2" msid="74603992" hostid="261"></div>



 Built in 1874, the palace was valued at ₹1 crore back then — and costs over ₹4,000 crore today. The mahal has a dining room fitted with a train track on the table, which serves brandy and cigars in a silver train. In fact, the Darbar Hall, which is the main attraction of the Palace, has two chandeliers weighing 3,500 kgs each — making it the largest in the world. 
 <div type="image" title="silver train" msid="74603986" hostid="261"></div>



 The two chandeliers lighten up the hall with over 250 bulbs. It is also said that eight elephants were suspended from the roof embellished with gold to check if it was capable of bearing the weight of these chandeliers. <div type="image" title="darbar hall" msid="74604172" hostid="261"></div>

 But, that is not all. The Scindia family own two properties in Samudra Mahal in Mumbai including a terrace flat, one of which was rented out to the Yes Bank founder Rana Kapoor. The two highrises of 27-storeys each are valued at ₹125,000 per square feet — among the highest in the world and offering all possible luxuries. 
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 Because of its unique design, each of the duplex offers an eyeful of the vast Arabian Sea outside. Other residents of the posh complex include Akshata Narayan of Infosys, Nandan Nilekani, Vedanta Group head Prateek Agarwal, Motilal Oswal Group's joint-MD Raamdeo Agrawal, The Xander Group founder-chairman Siddharth Yog, Famous Studios chief A K Roongta. Scindia’s family has been into politics ever since his grandmother, Vijayaraje Scindia joined politics in 1957 — winning a seat from the <keyword id="1571" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress-party">Congress Party</keyword>. See also: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/jyotiraditya-scindia-joining-bjp-news-and-updates/articleshow/74572946.cms">Jyotiraditya Scindia joins BJP and says his dreams were shattered in Congress</a>

BJP's Jyotiraditya Scindia’s palaces, museums and posh complexes have a royal history

<keyword id="4533468" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="ekansh-mittal">Ekansh Mittal</keyword> is not just a 29-year-old trader from Kanpur who makes some money in the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/India-has-an-overcrowded-stock-market-but-continues-to-pull-money-from-Nomura/articleshow/58611978.cms">stock market</a>. In fact, keeping a close eye on potentially money-spinning shares, he holds shares the prices of which have surged up to 1,700% in last six years. Also read: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Money-is-pouring-into-one-of-the-worlds-biggest-stock-markets-at-a-record-pace/articleshow/58646216.cms">Money is pouring into one of the world's biggest stock markets at a record pace</a> With an ability to spot potential shares that turn big in smallcap and midcap segments, Mittal picks easy-to-understand businesses that can generate high returns on capital employed (RoCE). As of now, he holds stocks of Cera Sanitaryware, Wim Plast, and Acrysil, among others. Shares of these three companies, which he spotted 2011, have delivered 1,700%, 1,400% and 500% returns, respectively. He is still holding these stocks. Also read: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/GDP-to-grow-over-7-5-in-2017-18-says-Finance-Secretary-Ashok-Lavasa/articleshow/58645633.cms">GDP to grow over 7.5% in 2017-18, says Finance Secretary Ashok Lavasa</a> However, his journey in the share market has not been all highs and no lows. He lost money with IPCA Labs and <keyword id="25562" type="ENTERTAINMENT" weightage="100" keywordseo="eros">Eros</keyword> International because of not being clear about the gravity of the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Trump-is-promising-big-changes-at-the-FDA-heres-how-drugs-are-approved-today/articleshow/57236412.cms">USFDA</a>-related issues for IPCA labs, and accounting policies of Eros International. Other than losing money he invested, he also remembers not investing in Ajanta Pharma, Caplin Point, Astral Poly Technik and La Opala RG, even though he had realised their potential. Also read: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/No-more-waiting-period-for-banks-to-start-loan-recovery/articleshow/58624831.cms">No more waiting period for banks to start loan recovery</a> Talking about his strategy to picking stocks, he said that after screening stocks on the basis of financial performance, “We compare it to peers to get an overview of the overall industry and understand industry dynamics in more detail. Lastly, we try and reach out to the management through one-on-one meetings, AGMs or through conference calls but the focus is not to get future guidance but to improve our overall understanding of the business and the various variables involved.” Ekansh has a fondness for market legends like Raamdeo Agrawal, Howard Marks, Sanjay Bakshi and Vijay Kedia, taking interest in their interviews and following them. “These are all giants of the investing field and there’s so much to learn from their experiences, both good and bad,” he told <a href="http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/just-29-this-kanpur-based-trader-is-making-a-killing-on-d-st-and-how/articleshow/58679475.cms">ET</a>. (Image source Dainik Bhaskar)

Everyone could learn some tricks of Dalal Street from this 29-year old stock trader

A few days ago, yoga guru <keyword id="6355107" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Baba-Ramdev">Baba Ramdev</keyword> had taken a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Weirdest-comment-of-the-day-Ramdev-Baba-says-Patanjali-will-shut-the-gate-in-Colgate-make-Nestles-bird-disappear/articleshow/52027530.cms">direct dig</a> at the rivals of his FMCG firm <keyword id="6356684" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="patanjali">patanjali</keyword>, saying, "Patanjali will shut the 'gate' on <keyword id="73802" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Colgate">Colgate</keyword>. The birds in Nestle's nest (logo) will also fly away." 
 
His confidence has come because of Patanjali achieving the 5000 crore mark, and successfully <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Indias-herbal-market-has-got-a-new-life/articleshow/51104012.cms">bringing Ayurveda back</a> into the daily lives of Indians, just the way he had brought Yoga back to the its country of origin many years ago. 
 
And now, Patanjali is all set to overpower traditional FMCG biggies like <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Patanjali-takes-over-the-entire-Ayurveda-industry/articleshow/51453997.cms">Hindustan Unilever, Nestle, Marico and Dabur</a>, and we say this basis data and records. 
 
Patanjali has <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/Everyone-wants-to-be-a-part-of-Patanjalis-success-as-FMCG-giant-aims-Rs-1000-crore-this-fiscal/articleshow/51682270.cms">put a dent</a> on these companies in the past four months, and investors think that Ramdev's company will further impact their market share and consumer preferences. 
 
This year, so far, the BSE FMCG index, a gauge of the FMCG stocks on BSE, has already slumped 9%, even though the consumption demand has revived, along with the expectation of good monsoon, which would up rural wages and further support demand growth. 
 "I think the market is growing. So there is room for everyone, but there will be some give and take in market shares. Patanjali has this ayurvedic halo around it and Baba Ramdev is a great brand," Pradip P Shah, Chairman, <keyword id="1539139" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="IndAsia-Fund-Advisors">IndAsia Fund Advisors</keyword>, told ET. 
 
"There is a natural feeling that these products are good and the price points are lower compared with the premium products available in the market. There is a great product out there and their distribution and packaging are pretty good," he said. 
 
One might be forced to think that the success of this 10-year old FMCG firm is just because of Baba's charm. Raamdeo Agrawal, Co-Founder &amp; Joint MD of MOFSL, says, "It will definitely <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/BabaRamdevs-Patanjali-is-already-spelling-doom-for-this-global-brand-in-India/articleshow/51303845.cms">take away market shares</a> in some segments. They have a segment where they will thrive. So it is a marketing challenge for the rest of the pack, be it <keyword id="6365619" type="CITY" weightage="100" keywordseo="Hindustan-UniLever">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> or Colgate or <keyword id="40233" type="COMPANY" weightage="100" keywordseo="emami">Emami</keyword>, whosoever is hurt by Patanjali products." However, he also added that, "Patanjali will have some challenges coming in later on product superiority, because one needs to see whether product superiority or just the blind faith in Baba Ramdev's brand equity is driving them" 
 
Some, however, are of the view that the market is big enough for the competitors to survive. "Clearly, Patanjali is making inroads, but that does not mean the Unilevers of the world will fade away. They are astute. They have excellent marketing. They will come out with different products. They will come out with different prices," Pradip P Shah of IndAsia Fund Advisors told ET. 
 
<a href="http://www.himalayanmail.com/newsadmin/Photo/562011175926119.jpg">Image source</a>

Is Patanjali actually going to displace traditional biggies from the market, or is it just Baba Ramdev’s charm?

The stock markets have been in a buoyant mood ever since <keyword id="6354477" type="PERSON" weightage="40" keywordseo="Narendra-Modi">Narendra Modi</keyword> was named the BJP's prime ministerial candidate on 13 September last year. With Indian voters giving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a clear mandate, the markets turned euphoric. On the 16 May, the day of vounting, the Sensex opened up by more than 1,000 points and then breached the historic 25,000 mark. 
 Now that the markets have safely negotiated possibly the year's biggest event risk, <keyword id="6416579" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="Retail-investors">retail investors</keyword> need to reformulate their stock market strategy: should those who have been sitting on the sidelines enter the markets now in anticipation of the bull run continuing? And, for those who entered the markets earlier, is it time to book profits in view of stretched valuations? 
 
Cast a fresh eye on your portfolio 
 
Investors with a short-term investment horizon, who have made substantial profits from the current run-up, may encash their gains. "Investors who got in at lower levels should book partial profit and wait for a correction to re-enter," says Vibhav Kapoor, Group CIO, IL&amp;FS. The rationale: the markets have already factored in the positive news and valuations are getting stretched. 
 Long-term investors, on the other hand, may continue to hold on to their investments. "The overall long-term trend is positive," says Kapoor. Adds Shankar Sharma, vice-chairman and joint managing director, First Global: "India's fundamentals are among the best in the world right now, so hold on to your equity investments." Raamdeo Agrawal, joint managing director, Motilal Oswal <keyword id="6354241" type="COMPANY" weightage="40" keywordseo="Financial-Services">Financial Services</keyword>, concurs. "The long-term story is just starting, so investors should continue to be in equities for the next five years," he says. 
 
Adds Andrew Holland, CEO-Equities, Ambit Capital: "Foreign investors are very positive, so the high inflows may continue for a few more months." Events like the Union Budget and important economic policy announcements are expected to keep the markets buoyant over the next few months. 
 
 
 
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Which segment should you bet on? 
 Should you seek refuge in the relative safety and stability of large-caps, or should you aspire for the higher returns that mid- and small-cap stocks can potentially offer? Remember that these three segments rarely move up in tandem. The large caps led the charge when Narendra Modi was anointed prime ministerial candidate. Only later did the mid- and small-cap counters take over from them. The BSE Mid- and Small-cap indices have gained much more than the Sensex since 13 September. This trend may continue in the future as well. The large-cap stocks are gaining again now, which implies that mid- and small-caps may play catch-up later, once large caps enter correction mode. The mid- and small-cap indices are also quoting at a discount to the large-cap index. However, <keyword id="47916" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="40" keywordseo="invest">invest</keyword>ors need to invest in each stock on its own merit, based on its growth prospects and current valuation. "It would not be correct to brand the entire mid- and small-cap segment as undervalued or overvalued. Investors should go company-wise," says Swapnil Pawar, chief investment officer, Karvy Capital. 
 
 
 
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Which are tomorrow's sectors? 
 
With the NDA winning a clear mandate, the surge in economy-related stocks may continue. Enter these sectors whenever the markets take a breather. "We continue to like cyclicals," says Holland. One of the new government's top priorities will be to kickstart the investment cycle by expediting clearances. Since the executive wing of the government is likely to work with a sense of urgency, sectors like infrastructure, construction, capital goods and power are expected to fare well. 
 
Another sector expected to benefit from an economic turnaround is financials. But private and public sector banks will go their own separate ways. The former are expected to increase their share of the market pie. Unlike their public-sector peers, they don't have NPA (non-performing assets) related concerns. An economic recovery augurs well for public sector banks as well since it will reduce NPAs throughout the system. While the resolution of NPA-related concerns may take a few quarters, prices of PSU bank stocks may run up much earlier. 
 The oil and gas sector too is in a sweet spot currently. An appreciating currency will favour this sector by lowering its subsidy burden. Since its low of 68.85 vis-a-vis the dollar on 28 August, 2013, the <keyword id="6355302" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="40" keywordseo="Rupee">rupee</keyword> has strengthened considerably. While this may be attributed largely to the government and the RBI reining in the current account deficit (CAD), the expectation of a business-friendly government taking over after the elections has also led to the inflow of dollars, which has pushed the rupee above the 59 level. The RBI may buy dollars to slow down the pace of the rupee's appreciation, but the currency may nonetheless strengthen in the short run. The new government is also expected to resolve the vexed issue of gas and oil pricing, which will be another shot in the arm for the sector. 
 
Despite global demand improving, the rupee's appreciation could act as a headwind for IT companies in the next few quarters. If sectoral rotation continues and money keeps on moving out of defensives and into cyclicals, there will be added pressure on IT stocks. Avoid this sector for the time being. 
 
Other export-oriented sectors such as textiles and leather may also suffer on account of the rupee strengthening. The domestic slowdown in China may lead to heightened competition from Chinese exports. Import substitution sectors like metals are also in the same boat. 
 
 
 
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Pharmaceutical, another export-oriented sector, is expected to fare better. While it too will be hit by the currency's appreciation on the external front, the picture in the domestic market is improving. The sector has already put the troubles caused by the drug price control order (DPCO) of 2013 behind it. 
 Cyclical rotation may hurt some of the defensive stocks in the short term. However, the fundamentals of sectors like auto and <keyword id="34523" type="CITY" weightage="40" keywordseo="fmcg">FMCG</keyword> will improve as domestic demand rises. The demand for premium products, which carry higher margins, is expected to improve in the wake of an economic recovery. A stronger rupee will also lower the cost of imported raw materials for many of these players. Try to latch onto some of the reasonably priced stocks in these sectors whenever the markets correct. 
 
Stocks of a few industrial groups, such as Adani, have done well ever since Narendra Modi became the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. Since momentum still favours these stocks, you may continue to hold on to them for the time being.

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Economic implications of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results: Would lack of a clear majority for BJP impact India’s growth story?

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BJP's Jyotiraditya Scindia’s palaces, museums and posh complexes have a royal history

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Everyone could learn some tricks of Dalal Street from this 29-year old stock trader

BI India Bureau

Is Patanjali actually going to displace traditional biggies from the market, or is it just Baba Ramdev’s charm?

BI India Bureau

Narendra Modi's NDA Government Elected To Power: Where Should You Invest Now?

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