Best printers for Home

Best Mixer Grinder

Best wired Earphones

Best 43 Inch TV in India

Best Wi Fi Routers

Best Home Theatre in India

Smart Watch under 5000

Best Laptops for Education

Best Laptop for Students

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been investing heavily in new military hardware in order to Iran.</li></ul>Iran's military moves in recent weeks have captured worldwide attention, stoking concern among rivals in the US and across the Middle East.On September 1, Iran's navy <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iranian-ship-captures-us-navy-drone-boats-hiding-under-tarp-2022-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">briefly seized</a> two US Navy unmanned surface vessels in the Red Sea, succeeding on its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-tried-capture-us-vessel-stopped-by-navy-patrol-2022-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second attempt</a> capture a US drone within a week.On September 4, Iran's air force commander, Brig. Gen. Hamid Vahedi, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2022/09/05/persian-flankers-iran-eyeing-russian-su-35s-in-biggest-potential-fighter-procurement-in-30-years/?sh=252fd56e4f47" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> the country hoped to acquire Russian Su-35 fighter jets in what would be Tehran's largest fighter purchase since 1990.The following day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/irans-irgcn-unveils-shahid-soleimani-catamaran" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed off</a> a new catamaran-style "patrol-combat vessel" equipped with vertical launch missiles — a first for any Iranian naval vessel.Those actions come amid a longer-term military buildup by Iran's neighbors, who seek to counter Tehran's asymmetric capabilities by improving their air and naval forces. Their buildup has continued despite President Joe Biden's efforts to assure them of US support and improve relations in the face of increasing geopolitical competition.<h2>Dominant airpower</h2><div type="image" title="United Arab Emirates F-16 KC-10 tanker" height="1333" width="2000" msid="94499850" hostid="261"></div>Saudi Arabia's and the UAE's vast oil wealth has allowed them to be the top two defense spenders in the Middle East and North Africa, and their relations with the US and Europe give them access to the best combat aircraft on the market.The Royal Saudi Air Force's core <a href="https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strength</a> are its 232 F-15 Eagles, at least 84 of which are <a href="https://theaviationist.com/2017/02/01/up-close-and-personal-with-the-first-saudi-f-15sa-the-most-advanced-eagle-ever-built/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">F-15SA variants</a> designed specifically for Saudi Arabia. The RSAF also operates 71 <a href="http://www.military-today.com/aircraft/eurofighter_typhoon.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eurofighter Typhoon</a> fighters and 66 <a href="https://www.aircraftrecognitionguide.com/panavia-tornado" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Panavia Tornado</a> attack aircraft.Saudi Arabia is upgrading its F-15s, and in November, the US State Department approved the sale of 280 AIM-120C air-to-air missiles for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-sells-saudi-arabia-650-million-of-us-made-missiles-2021-11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$650 million</a> to Riyadh.<div type="image" title="Royal Saudi Air Force F-15" height="1333" width="2000" msid="94499851" hostid="261"></div>Saudi aircraft continue to play a major role in Riyadh's campaign in Yemen. Their operations have kept Houthi forces from taking <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-saudi-arabia-coalition-airstrikes-marib-houthis-advance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">important territory</a> and <a href="https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39992/watch-a-saudi-f-15-fighter-swoop-in-low-to-blast-a-houthi-rebel-drone-out-of-the-sky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prevented</a> Houthi drones and missiles from striking Saudi Arabia, but Saudi airstrikes, often conducted with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2022/saudi-war-crimes-yemen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US support</a>, continue to <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/18/yemen-latest-round-saudi-uae-led-attacks-targets-civilians" target="_blank" rel="noopener">kill civilians</a>.The UAE's air fleet is smaller but also powerful, made up of 78 F-16s and 49 <a href="https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mirage 2000s</a> used for both fighter and ground-attack operations.Over the past year, the UAE has said <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/3/uae-buys-record-80-french-fighter-jets-as-macron-starts-gulf-tour" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it would purchase</a> 80 French-made Dassault Rafales <a href="https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/uae-to-order-up-to-48-chinese-l15-fighter-trainers-just-how-capable-are-they" target="_blank" rel="noopener">and</a> 12 Chinese-made <a href="http://www.military-today.com/aircraft/l15.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hongdu L-15</a> jet trainers, with an option for 36 more.The UAE also received 20 Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkish firm Baykar this month, and Saudi Arabia is also in talks with the firm to buy the drones, which a Western source <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/exclusive-turkey-sells-battle-tested-drones-uae-regional-rivals-mend-ties-2022-09-21/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told Reuters</a> are better than the Iranian drones that Russia is using in Ukraine.<h2>Modern fleets</h2><div type="image" title="Royal Saudi Naval Force corvette HMS Badr" height="1276" width="1702" msid="94499852" hostid="261"></div>The Saudi navy's primary combat ships are three <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/al_riyadh/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Al Riyadh-class</a> frigates, four <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2017/january-2017-navy-naval-forces-defense-industry-technology-maritime-security-global-news/4852-royal-saudi-navy-al-madinah-class-frigate-damaged-following-attack-by-houthi-militia-off-yemen.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Al Madinah-class</a> frigates, four <a href="https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/july/us-navy-needs-corvette-badr-class-would-do" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Badr-class corvettes</a>, and nine Al Siddiq-class patrol vessels. The UAE's battlefleet is made up of smaller vessels: six <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/baynunah/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baynunah-class</a> and one <a href="https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/middle-eastern-navies-vessels-ships-equipment/uae-navy-vessels-ships-equipment/corvettespatrol-vessels/884-abu-dhabi-class-asw-corvette-p191-uae-navy-united-arab-emirates-fincantieri-etihad-ship-building-esb-anti-s" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Abu Dhabi-class</a> corvettes and 36 patrol vessels.Both navies plan to expand and modernize.In 2017, Riyadh signed a contract with Lockheed Martin for four <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/multi-mission-surface-combatant-mmsc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">multi-mission surface combatant</a> warships, a variant of the US Navy's Freedom-class littoral combat ship. The Saudis have also <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/07/navantia-delivers-2nd-avante-2200-corvette-to-saudi-arabia/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">received</a> two of the five Spanish-built <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/avante-2200-combatant/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Al Jubail-class</a> corvettes they ordered in 2018. The final three are expected to be delivered by 2024. The Kingdom has also ordered 39 <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/09/cmn-hands-over-2nd-and-3rd-batches-of-hsi32-interceptors-to-royal-saudi-navy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSI32 Interceptor</a> vessels from French shipbuilder CMN Group.The UAE, meanwhile, ordered two Gowind 2500-class corvettes from France's Marine Group in 2019. The first corvette was <a href="https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/naval-group-launches-bani-yas-gowind-corvette-uae/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">launched</a> in December and the second <a href="https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/naval-group-launches-second-gowind-corvette-for-uae" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in May</a>.In addition to securing their own waters, the Saudi and Emirati navies have both sent vessels to support <a href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gulf-coalition-operations-yemen-part-3-maritime-and-aerial-blockade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a blockade</a> of Yemen.<h2>Evolving threats, priorities, and procurement</h2><div type="image" title="United Arab Emirates Baynunah-class corvette" height="1328" width="2000" msid="94499853" hostid="261"></div>Despite <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-navy-flexes-new-muscles-years-after-fight-with-us-2021-7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showing off</a> its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/r-iran-navy-launches-stealth-warship-in-the-gulf-2018-12" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new warships</a> and announcing plans to buy more fighter jets, Tehran has recalibrated its defense structure in recent years."Ten years ago, you could see the Iranians were still thinking in a somewhat conventional way about doing things," said Michael Knights, an expert in the military and security affairs of Persian Gulf countries at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.Handicapped by sanctions and a limited industrial base, Iran has mostly been unable to build and field advanced military hardware. It has shifted from trying to match the conventional capabilities of its adversaries to focusing on things like missile and drone development."They've leapfrogged over a bunch of stuff that they weren't good at and they've focused on stuff that they are reasonably good at now," Knights told Insider.Iran's <a href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">missile arsenal</a> is the largest in the Middle East and quite capable, as is its <a href="https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/aug/20/irans-drone-fleet" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drone fleet</a>.<div type="image" title="Al Asad al-Asad Iraq base damage aftermath Iran missile strike January 2020" height="720" width="1280" msid="94499855" hostid="261"></div>Hundreds of missile and drone attacks using Iranian-made hardware have been launched against Saudi Arabia and UAE from Yemen and Iran since 2015. In January 2020, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at US military bases in Iraq following <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iranian-military-commander-soleimani-killed-in-airstrike-report-2020-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the US's assassination</a> of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani.Iran has been supplying drones <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-winner-is-emerging-from-the-war-in-ukraine-but-its-not-who-you-think-189036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to Moscow</a> as the Russian military struggles in Ukraine. In mid-September, Ukraine said it had for the first time <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-eliminated-iranian-drone-deployed-russia-putin-counteroffensive-war-2022-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">destroyed</a> an Iranian drone in use by Russian forces.Iran has also <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/battle-or-slaughter-are-irans-upgraded-air-defenses-threat-us-air-force-193920" target="_blank" rel="noopener">developed air defenses</a> that likely could effectively defend its home territory.But the advanced weapons now fielded by Iran and its neighbors, along with the tight confines of the Gulf region, mean that any conflict would see heavy losses on both sides."The Gulf states and the Iranians would probably be able to do each other a lot of damage very early in a war. Both sides would lose their navies very quickly," Knights said.Consequently, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been putting more emphasis on developing anti-air and missile-defense systems. Both are also <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-a-u-s-navy-maritime-drone-operation-aimed-at-iran-11661954273?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investing in unmanned systems</a>.The two countries are working to integrate and network their drones and systems with each other, which the US has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/12/biden-middle-east-air-defense-alliance-00045423" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supported</a>, and have participated in or hosted multiple military exercises involving drones, including this year's US-led International Maritime Exercise, <a href="https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/News-Article-View/Article/2940622/large-scale-international-exercise-in-middle-east-africa-concludes/#:~:text=International%20Maritime%20Exercise%20(IMX)%202022,and%20the%20West%20Indian%20Ocean." target="_blank" rel="noopener">the largest exercise</a> of unmanned systems in the world.<div type="image" title="unmanned naval vessels in Bahrain" height="1428" width="2000" msid="94499857" hostid="261"></div>IMX 2022 was also <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-participates-huge-us-gulf-naval-exercise-alongside-saudi-oman-2022-02-02/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the first time</a> Israel and Saudi Arabia, which don't have diplomatic relations, officially took part in an exercise together.The Saudis and the UAE have turned to their burgeoning defense industries to build that weaponry, but the Biden administration — which froze arms sales to Saudi Arabia upon entering office over human-rights concerns related to the war in Yemen — now seems open to replenishing Saudi and Emirati arsenals as part of its efforts to improve relations.Just weeks after his visit to the Middle East in July 2021, Biden approved a $5 billion arms sale that included up to 300 Patriot missile interceptors for Saudi Arabia and two Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems with 96 interceptor missiles for the UAE.Iran is "in a game of mutually assured destruction" with the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, "when it comes to the loss of critical infrastructure," Knights said."But if trends in counter-missile and counter-drone continue moving in the direction they are moving now, the GCC might be better prepared to defend themselves from the Iranians, and that's an interesting trend break," he added.

Despite Biden's assurances, Middle East militaries are buying their own weapons to take on Iran at sea and in the air

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Wikimedia CommonsAn RSAF Panavia Tornado fighter jet.</div></div></div><ul><li>Iranian-backed Houthi rebels said they shot down a Saudi-led coalition fighter jet over Yemen. </li><li>But Saudi media claimed the jet crashed due to technical failure.</li></ul> Iranian-backed Houthi rebels said they shot down a Saudi-led coalition fighter jet over Yemen's Sanaa province on Sunday, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-warplane/yemens-houthis-shoot-down-saudi-led-coalition-warplane-tv-idUSKBN1EW0NV?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=Social&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to Reuters, which cited Al-Massirah, a Houthi-owned Yemeni <keyword id="6355005" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="News">news</keyword> channel.But Saudi-owned news channel Al-Aribayah contradicted the Houthis, saying that the Saudi-led coalition warplane crashed because of a technical failure and that both pilots survived.A Yemeni military source said the British-made Panavia Tornado jet was conducting a bombing run on residential areas in the province when the military shot it down with a surface-to-air missile, Al-Massriah reported, <a href="http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/01/07/548148/Yemeni-forces-target-Saudiled-Tornado-fighter-jet-over-Saada-Report" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to Iran's Press TV.Saudi Arabia is the only country operating Tornadoes in the region, <a href="https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-houthi-air-defenses-shoot-saudi-tornado-warplane-north-yemen/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">according</a> to Al Masdar News.The conflict in Yemen <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29319423" target="_blank" rel="noopener">between</a> forces loyal to the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi and those allied to the Houthi rebels is largely a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.Since March 2015, more than 8,600 people have been killed in what the UN has <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/un-agencies-yemen-humanitarian-crisis/4185462.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called</a> the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Saudi-led airstrikes have caused most of the civilian casualities, but its blockade of the country has <a href="https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/22/16680392/saudi-arabia-yemen-blockade-famine-casualties" target="_blank" rel="noopener">led</a> to mass starvation as well.The US has also quietly supported the Saudi-led war in Yemen, for which it has drawn criticism, and Houti rebels even <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/houthis-capture-us-navy-underwater-drone-yemen-2018-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appeared</a> to capture a US Navy underwater drone last week off the coast of Yemen. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclear-bomb-launch-procedure-us-government-president-2017-11">Here's how easy it is for the US president to launch a nuclear weapon</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Houthi rebels say they shot down a Saudi-led coalition fighter jet over Yemen

Note from dshort: This commentary has been revised to include May updates for Real Retail Sales and Industrial Production, data through April.

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles/general_statement.html">committee statement</a> is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
<ul>
<li>Industrial Production</li>
<li>Real Personal Income (excluding transfer payments)</li>
<li>Nonfarm Employment</li>
<li>Real Retail Sales (a timelier substitute for Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales)</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-size: 18px; text-align: left;">The Latest Indicator Data</h3>
 The April Retail Sales data released earlier this week can now be adjusted for inflation with yesterday's April Consumer Price Index. Nominal sales rose 0.09% month-over-month. However, real (inflation-adjusted) sales declined 0.17%. Year-over-year nominal sales are up 4.05%, but the real YoY is up only 2.05%. For a more detailed analysis, see my latest update on <a href="http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Real-Retail-Sales-Per-Capita.php" target="_blank">Real Retail Sales Per Capita</a>.
April Industrial Production declined 0.6% MoM. Here is the Federal Reserve overview:

The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession. The data points show the cumulative percent change from a zero starting point for June 2009. We now have three of the four indicator updates for the 57th month following the recession. With one data point left for March, the Big Four Average (gray line below) is showing the two strongest advances of the past twelve months.
<div></div>
Current Assessment and Outlook
The overall picture of the US economy had been one of a ploddingly slow recovery from the Great Recession, and the data for December and January months documented a sharp contraction. The recovery in subsequent months appeared to support the general view that severe winter weather was responsible for the contraction, and that the slippage was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline. However, April weakness in both real retail sales and industrial production suggests a more cautious assumption about the ongoing recovery.
 

The next update of the Big Four will follow the releasee of the April Personal Income less Transfer Payments on May 30th.
Background Analysis: The Big Four Indicators and Recessions
The charts above don't show us the individual behavior of the Big Four leading up to the 2007 recession. To achieve that goal, I've plotted the same data using a "percent off high" technique. In other words, I show successive new highs as zero and the cumulative percent declines of months that aren't new highs. The advantage of this approach is that it helps us visualize declines more clearly and to compare the depth of declines for each indicator and across time (e.g., the short 2001 recession versus the Great Recession). Here is my own four-pack showing the indicators with this technique.

Now let's examine the behavior of these indicators across time. The first chart below graphs the period from 2000 to the present, thereby showing us the behavior of the four indicators before and after the two most recent recessions. Rather than having four separate charts, I've created an overlay to help us evaluate the relative behavior of the indicators at the cycle peaks and troughs. (See my <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Big-Four-Economic-Indicators.php#USREC">note</a> below on recession boundaries).
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-Since-2000.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-Since-2000.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
The chart above is an excellent starting point for evaluating the relevance of the four indicators in the context of two very different recessions. In both cases, the bounce in Industrial Production matches the NBER trough while Employment and Personal Incomes lagged in their respective reversals.
As for the start of these two 21st century recessions, the indicator declines are less uniform in their behavior. We can see, however, that Employment and Personal Income were laggards in the declines.
Now let's look at the 1972-1985 period, which included three recessions -- the savage 16-month Oil Embargo recession of 1973-1975 and the double dip of 1980 and 1981-1982 (6-months and 16-months, respectively).
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-1972-1985.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-1972-1985.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
And finally, for sharp-eyed readers who can don't mind squinting at a lot of data, here's a cluttered chart from 1959 to the present. That is the earliest date for which all four indicators are available. The main lesson of this chart is the diverse patterns and volatility across time for these indicators. For example, retail sales and industrial production are far more volatile than employment and income.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-Since-1959.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicators-Since-1959.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
History tells us the brief periods of contraction are not uncommon, as we can see in this big picture since 1959, the same chart as the one above, but showing the average of the four rather than the individual indicators.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicator-Average-Since-1959.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicator-Average-Since-1959.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
The chart clearly illustrates the savagery of the last recession. It was much deeper than the closest contender in this timeframe, the 1973-1975 Oil Embargo recession. While we've yet to set new highs, the trend has collectively been upward, although we have that strange anomaly caused by the late 2012 tax-planning strategy that impacted the Personal Income.
Here is a close-up of the average since 2000.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicator-Average-Since-2000.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Big-Four-Indicators.html?Big-Four-Indicator-Average-Since-2000.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
 

Appendix: Chart Gallery with Notes
Each of the four major indicators discussed in this article are illustrated below in three different data manipulations:
<ol>
<li>A log scale plotting of the data series to ensure that distances on the vertical axis reflect true relative growth. This adjustment is particularly important for data series that have changed significantly over time.</li>
<li>A year-over-year representation to help, among other things, identify broader trends over the years.</li>
<li>A percent-off-high manipulation, which is particularly useful for identifying trend behavior and secular volatility.</li>
</ol>
Industrial Production
The US Industrial Production Index (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO">INDPRO</a>) is the oldest of the four indicators, stretching back to 1919. The log scale of the first chart is particularly useful in showing the correlation between this indicator and early 20th century recessions.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-log.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-log.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-YoY.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-YoY.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-percent-off-high.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Industrial-Production.html?INDPRO-percent-off-high.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
This data series is computed as by taking Personal Income (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PI">PI</a>) less Personal Current Transfer Receipts (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCTR">PCTR</a>) and deflated using the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PCEPI">PCEPI</a>). I've chained the data to the latest price index value.
The "Tax Planning Strategies" annotation refers to shifting income into the current year to avoid a real or expected tax increase.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-log.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-log.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-YoY.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-YoY.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-percent-off-high.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Personal-Income.html?PI-less-TP-real-percent-off-high.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
For a visual sense of the relative size of Personal Income and Transfer Receipts (Social Security, etc.), here is stacked area chart of nominal values. Many people assume that Transfer Receipts (Payments) are a larger source of income than they really are.
Total Nonfarm Employees
There are many ways to plot employment. The one referenced by the Federal Reserve researchers as one of the NBER indicators is Total Nonfarm Employees (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS">PAYEMS</a>).
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-log.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-log.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-YoY.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-YoY.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-percent-off-high.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Nonfarm-Employment.html?PAYEMS-percent-off-high.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
Real Retail Sales
This indicator is a splicing of the discontinued retail sales series (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RETAIL">RETAIL</a>, discontinued in April 2001) with the Retail and Food Services Sales (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RSAFS">RSAFS</a>) and deflated by the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL">CPIAUCSL</a>). I used a splice point of January 1995 because that date was mentioned in the FRED notes. My experiments with other splice techniques (e.g., 1992, 2001 or using an average of the overlapping years) didn't make a meaningful difference in the behavior of the indicator in proximity to recessions. I've chained the data to the latest CPI value.
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-log.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-log.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-YoY.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-YoY.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
<a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-percent-off-high.gif"> </a> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Real-Retail-Sales.html?RETAIL-real-percent-off-high.gif">Click for a larger image</a>
Note: I represent recessions as the peak month through the month preceding the trough to highlight the recessions in the charts above. For example, the NBER dates the last cycle peak as December 2007, the trough as June 2009 and the duration as 18 months. The "Peak through the Period preceding the Trough" series is the one FRED uses in its monthly charts, as explained in the <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/help-faq/">FRED FAQs</a> illustrated in this <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=8Jx">Industrial Production chart</a>.

You Searched For "RSAF" and got 3 results

Despite Biden's assurances, Middle East militaries are buying their own weapons to take on Iran at sea and in the air

Benjamin Brimelow

Houthi rebels say they shot down a Saudi-led coalition fighter jet over Yemen

Daniel Brown

The State Of The Four Official Recession Indicators

Doug Short, Advisor Perspecti…

Popular Keywords

Buying Guides