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RIL hits market cap landmark but still behind global luxury brands, Netflix in valuation

<ul><li>The demerger of <keyword id="15323576" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jio-financial-services" source="Orion">Jio Financial Services</keyword> (JFS) in the coming months and listing on the stock exchanges is a ‘key moment’ for the Reliance Industries’ stock. </li><li>The JFS demerger is expected to act as a catalyst that the parent Reliance Industries was missing, which is evident from the sagging stock price. </li><li>JFS’ entry could also prove to be a challenge to existing players in the space like Bajaj Finance, Paytm and PhonePe, and a successful take off could also result in attrition at banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFC).</li></ul>The <keyword id="17044379" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="demerger-of-jio" source="Orion">demerger of Jio</keyword> Financial Services (JFS) in the coming months and listing on the stock exchanges is a ‘key moment’ for the Reliance Industries’ stock, according to analysts at Nomura. Strong fundamentals and business outlook aside, shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) have gone nowhere since March last year. After hitting a fresh 52-week low in March this year, RIL shares are still down over 10% in 2023. The JFS demerger could be just what the parent’s shares need – value unlocking. The JFS demerger is expected to act as a catalyst that the parent Reliance Industries has been missing. “The listing and value unlocking from RIL’s financial services business in the coming months will be a key event for the stock,” said Nomura in its latest note, adding that the decline in Reliance’s shares is due to “index-related sell-off”. According to the terms of the demerger announced in October last year, all existing shareholders of Reliance Industries will get one share in JFS for each share held in the parent company. The company has now <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/ril-calls-for-shareholder-creditor-meeting-to-approve-demerger-of-financial-services-arm/articleshow/99116790.cms">called</a> for a meeting of creditors and shareholders on May 2 for the requisite approvals. JFS is expected to list in September this year. “As JFS scales up, it can drive value unlocking given higher multiples for peers in these industries,” Nomura said. Jefferies has pegged the valuation of JFS in the range of ₹90,000 crore to ₹1.5 lakh crore, with each share of JFS valued at ₹179 in the brokerage’s base case scenario. Demerger to help JFS ‘dominate’ the industry Looking beyond the benefits for RIL’s shares, the JFS demerger will also help the financial services business attract investors and challenge existing players in the sector like Bajaj Finance and Paytm. “The demerger would help the financial services business to attract different sets of investors, strategic partners and lenders having specific interests in the financial services business,” Nomura added. Analysts at Jefferies underlined that JFS would be able to leverage the large distribution network, customer base and deep pockets of Reliance to take on existing players like Bajaj Finance, Paytm and PhonePe, among others. It will also allow JFS to emerge as the fifth largest financial services company in terms of net worth. Reliance has already made several moves to give JFS the best possible start – this includes bringing in KV Kamath, the former non-executive chairman of ICICI Bank, as its chairman. Subsequently, Kamath hired a former ICICI Bank talent, Manish Singh, to help him build a team as JFS draws closer to launch. Analysts are already watching for attrition at banks and non-banking financial companies or NBFCs. JFS to focus on consumers and merchants Leveraging Reliance’s wide reach in consumer and retail segments thanks to Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail, JFS is expected to focus on consumers and merchants as it kicks off its innings post the demerger. “JFS' key advantage will be low funding cost/ better access on the back of the group's high credit rating and ownership of 6.1% stake in RIL,” said Jefferies. Reliance’s retail arm reported<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/reliance-retails-q3-net-profit-up-6-2-at-2400-crore-finance-costs-depreciation-weigh/articleshow/97179758.cms"> 201 million footfalls</a> across its network of 17,225 stores in Q3, which is an increase of nearly 26% year-on-year. Its telecom arm, Reliance Jio, has been the market leader for several months now, with a total subscriber base of 426 million as of January 2023. This gives JFS a strong pool of consumers to dip into. The recent acquisition of<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/reliance-retail-to-acquire-wholesaler-metro-cash-carry-for-2850-crore/articleshow/96415905.cms"> Metro Cash &amp; Carry</a> will also give the company access to 3 million merchants, of which 1 million are frequent buyers. Upcoming Reliance AGM could lay down the blueprint of JFS strategy Reliance is expected to lay down the blueprint of its JFS strategy in detail at its upcoming annual general meeting (AGM), likely in August. This is ahead of the expected listing of JFS in September this year. “While significant efforts are needed to scale the financials business, given RIL’s robust execution, capacity to invest, industry-leading retail infrastructure and leading market share across the retail and telecom industry, it appears likely that RIL will dominate the industry,” said the analysts at Nomura, expressing their optimistic outlook. On the whole, analysts are bullish overall on RIL’s prospects and the JFS demerger, which has earned the company a stock price upgrade from analysts at Jefferies – to ₹3,100 from ₹3,060 earlier. Analysts at Nomura have given a target price of ₹2,850. The recent price correction has also prompted the analysts at JP Morgan to say that this is an<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/reliance-shares-down-22-from-all-time-high-attractive-entry-opportunity-says-jp-morgan/articleshow/98725589.cms"> “attractive entry opportunity”</a>. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/reliance-shares-down-22-from-all-time-high-attractive-entry-opportunity-says-jp-morgan/articleshow/98725589.cms">Reliance shares down 22% from all-time high: Attractive entry opportunity, says JP Morgan</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/banks/news/loan-growth-showing-signs-of-reversal-from-cyclical-highs-but-asset-quality-to-remain-healthy/articleshow/99245377.cms">Loan growth showing signs of reversal from cyclical highs, but asset quality to remain healthy</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-infosys-hcl-tech-amongst-top-picks-of-analysts-heading-into-the-q4-earnings-season/articleshow/99235686.cms">TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech amongst top picks of analysts heading into the Q4 earnings season</a>

Jio Financial Services demerger and listing a ‘key moment’ for Reliance stock

<ul><li><keyword id="6484187" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="ril" source="Orion">RIL</keyword> is now entering its fourth capex cycle, says <keyword id="48670" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="morgan-stanley" source="Orion">Morgan Stanley</keyword>. </li><li>It has pledged a massive ₹75,000 crore (approx. $9.4 billion) investment into the new energy ecosystem. </li><li>RIL’s investment cycles provided 2-3x value creation for shareholders in the last two decades, says Morgan Stanley. </li><li>“We see up to $60 billion value creation in the new energy business by 2025,” the report says. </li><li>However, if refining margins are hit, <keyword id="10926" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reliance" source="Orion">Reliance</keyword>’s annual debt will go up by $3 billion per annum and impact cash flows. </li></ul>Reliance has always gone big – and every capex cycle it undertakes is bigger and ‘newer’ than the last. The oil to telecom to retail major is now entering into the fourth capex cycle, according to Morgan Stanley, after the company pledged a massive ₹75,000 crore (approx. $9.4 billion) investment into a new energy ecosystem. In his own words, RIL’s chairman <keyword id="3820" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="mukesh-ambani" source="Orion">Mukesh Ambani</keyword> called it the most ambitious ever, at the 45th annual general meeting. In its latest report, Morgan Stanley says that every time RIL re-imagined its business, it has executed above investor expectations. “Investment cycles have unwound with around two to three times value creation for shareholders in the last two decades with every decade seeing around $60 billion in market cap creation,” the report says. This fourth cycle will also produce higher value quickly as its new energy pivot is integrated with its chemicals business and its own large captive use. “RIL’s integrated approach on solar panels and mobility/storage batteries, and focus on providing an alternative to China does stand out and we see up to $60 billion value creation in the new energy business by 2025. We raise our base case new energy valuation to $32 billion to account for quicker monetization,” the report says. RIL, which is a net energy consumer at Jamnagar, will make the green choice by putting more solar and green hydrogen projects that can help reduce its own energy costs. Moreso, it will also focus on producing high value added chemicals from its petcoke gasifiers. It will also enter the engineering, procurement and construction business for selling panels and sell panels with solutions on the back of multiple investments in technology to global customers. “We estimate the business to contribute to around $1 billion in EBITDA by 2027,” the report said. How did the past RIL capex cycles work? Starting in 1997 with Jamnagar refinery commissioning, RIL has gone through three important capex cycles so far. These pertain to gas fields at KGD6, the Jamnagar expansion in 2012 and the great re-entry into telecom. While they did create value, it did not come at no cost to the organization in the form of write-offs, impairments and ‘challenged capex’. “In every capex cycle, RIL also had its share of challenges, such as the write off of investments for petcoke gasifiers, telecom spectrum and upstream shale investments,” the report said. RIL had invested in three shale gas assets in 2010 and 2013 but exited them in 2017. In addition to investing in KGD6 block in the Krishna Godavari which is producing over 25 mmscmd of gas, RIL had also invested in Cauvery and Mahanadi basins over the years. RIL also had to rejig its investments in retail between 2006-2010 and emerged stronger in 2015-16, the report said. RIL capex that was challenged <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Year </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Challenged capex </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY03-FY10 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$12.5 billion upstream exploration and production -Includes $2.7 billion impairment taken on shale investments </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY12-FY16 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$8 billion capex into petcoke gasifier </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY18 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$2 billion spectrum writeoff </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">FY22 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">$4 billion impact on petcoke gasifier value during hiveoff </td></tr></tbody></table>Source: Morgan Stanley Telecom and retail businesses are ‘settling’ Morgan Stanley believes that the timing for new energy investments is ripe. Its other businesses are unwinding and expected to unwind faster in the future. After kick starting the business with ‘free data’ and still retaining the tag of providing the cheapest data offerings, <keyword id="2003276" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="jio" source="Orion">Jio</keyword> is on the verge of reaping benefits. Telecom business has become a three-player market and the report expects the average revenue per user to grow by over 50% over the next four to five 5 years. That means Jio’s revenues can expand to 1.6 times its FY22 levels. It also expects its 5G investments to yield quicker monetization than 4G did. The biggest advantage that new energy investments bring is the global and national support as India pledges to move towards Net Zero emissions by 2070. However, green hydrogen, solar panels and battery technology is a fast evolving sector with new changes afoot. “Policy support in this cycle is also increasing for the new energy vertical and the government recently approved a bill in parliament to raise the use of alternative fuels, provide incentives for investments in new energy and start carbon trading also points to rising total addressable market for RIL – something we saw less of in previous cycles,” the report said. But there is a catch. For its new energy business to run smoothly, RIL needs its refining business to hold steady. Refining margins fund nearly a third of RIL's investment plans and if margins were to decline to cycle low as the business is cyclical — it will reduce operating cash flows by 20% and annual debt would rise by $3 billion, as per Morgan Stanley’s calculations. “While cycle low gross refining margins are not sustainable as there would be a supply response, we do see a net impact of 15% hit to our net asset value as RIL would see its multiple de-rate as well,” the report said. SEE ALSO <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/jamnagar-is-going-green-but-on-the-back-of-its-oil-and-chemicals-business/articleshow/93859168.cms">Jamnagar is going green but on the back of its oil and chemicals business</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/gautam-adanis-overly-ambitious-growth-plans-can-spiral-into-a-massive-debt-trap-fitch/articleshow/93725014.cms">Gautam Adani’s overly ambitious growth plans can spiral into a massive debt trap: CreditSights report</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/finance/news/worst-of-times-can-also-be-the-best-of-times-says-anand-mahindra/articleshow/93376032.cms">Worst of times can also be the best of times, says Anand Mahindra</a>

RIL’s fourth capex cycle will unwind with $60 billion value creation, says Morgan Stanley

<ul><li>Share price of <keyword id="6484187" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ril" source="Orion">RIL</keyword> has doubled between the announcement of the deal and its recent peak on October 14.</li><li>In August 2019, the companies had signed a non-binding letter of intent for a potential 20% stake by Saudi Aramco in RIL.</li><li>On November 22, shares of RIL fell nearly 4% as the deal has been put on hold for now.</li></ul>The much anticipated deal between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Saudi Aramco has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/reliances-15-billion-deal-with-saudi-aramco-has-been-called-off/articleshow/87811630.cms">put on hold</a> and the disappointment of investors is being reflected in the share price of RIL. Both the companies, on November 20, decided to re-evaluate the proposed investment of Saudi Aramco in <keyword id="3820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mukesh-ambani" source="Orion">Mukesh Ambani</keyword>’s oil-to-chemical conglomerate. Meanwhile, shares of RIL have doubled between the announcement of the deal and its recent peak on October 14. <div type="image" title="ril char" height="900" width="1200" msid="87842195" hostid="261"></div> In August 2019, both the companies had signed a non-binding letter of intent for a potential 20% stake by Saudi Aramco in RIL. Five instances when RIL and Saudi Aramco gave investors hope of a big ticket deal <ul><li>August 2019</li></ul>RIL and Saudi Aramco signed a non-binding letter of intent in August 2019 for a potential 20% stake acquisition by Saudi Aramco in the oil-to-chemical business. <ul><li>August 2020</li></ul>In a post-earnings call of Saudi Aramco with analysts, its chief executive Amin Nasser said, "With regard to the Reliance deal, all I can say at this stage, it's going through due diligence. So, depending on the due diligence, we will make our decision after we complete the due diligence on that deal," said Nasser. <ul><li>June 2021</li></ul>Mukesh Ambani announced that the proposed deal with Saudi Aramco will likely be finalised this year during the 44th Annual General Meeting (AGM) on June 24. “As an important part of this vision of achieving accelerated growth, we look forward to welcoming Saudi Aramco as a strategic partner in our O2C business," said Ambani. <ul><li>July 2021</li></ul>Investors' hopes of a deal to happen soon were raised after RIL appointed Saudi Aramco’s Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan as an independent director of the company effective from July 19, 2021. <ul><li>August 2021</li></ul>CEO of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser said the company is still working on the deal to invest in Reliance Industries, as reported by Bloomberg. However, RIL clarified that it will continue to be Saudi Aramco's preferred partner for investments in the private sector in India and will collaborate with Saudi Aramco &amp; SABIC for investments in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco is one of the largest petroleum and natural gas companies in the world, based in Dhahran, while SABIC (Saudi Basic Industries Corporation), a subsidiary of Saudi Aramco, is into chemical manufacturing. Analysts at JP Morgan <a href="https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18Live/status/1462596690041470984/photo/1">reportedly </a>said that the development is a “clear sentiment negative”, but will have limited impact on RIL’s financials. Besides, a significant deleveraging (debt reduction) has already been done by the oil-to-chemical major, which is positive, according to JP Morgan. The global brokerage firm has a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock as it expects the share price to rise 7% at ₹2,575. Besides, RIL has shifted its focus to its new energy business at Jamnagar, which it aspires to make it among the largest integrated renewable energy manufacturing facilities in the world. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/paytm-has-lost-8-billion-in-valuation-in-two-days-of-listing/articleshow/87840891.cms">Paytm has lost $8 billion in valuation in two days of listing</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/airtels-popular-prepaid-plans-may-now-cost-you-up-to-25-more/articleshow/87840177.cms">Airtel’s popular prepaid plans may now cost you up to 25% more</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sensex-tanks-over-400-points-in-early-trade-nifty-trading-at-17764-reliance-industries-maruti-bajaj-finance-kotak-bank-and-bajaj-finserv-top-losers/articleshow/87841278.cms">Sensex tanks over 400 points in early trade, Nifty trading at 17,764 — Reliance Industries, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank and Bajaj Finserv top losers</a>

Reliance Industries’ investors dump shares after Mukesh Ambani's Aramco deal fails after 27 months of negotiations

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RIL hits market cap landmark but still behind global luxury brands, Netflix in valuation

Katya Naidu

Jio Financial Services demerger and listing a ‘key moment’ for Reliance stock

Rounak Jain

RIL’s fourth capex cycle will unwind with $60 billion value creation, says Morgan Stanley

Katya Naidu

Reliance Industries’ investors dump shares after Mukesh Ambani's Aramco deal fails after 27 months of negotiations

Bhakti Makwana

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