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In response to higher-than-expected tax revenue and a record surplus transfer from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Indian government is considering an 8-10% increase in <keyword id="20018917" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="capital-expenditure" source="keywords">capital expenditure</keyword> (capex) for the fiscal year 2025, according to Pantomath Group's quarterly report, "Market Kaleidoscope: Quarterly Market Insights." This adjustment could raise the capex from the previously allocated Rs 11.11 lakh crore, aiming to bolster infrastructure and economic growth. This fiscal boost comes as India reaches a historic financial milestone. The total market capitalization of all stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (<keyword id="19895774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE" source="keywords">BSE</keyword>) briefly surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, placing India among global giants such as the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong. India's primary market is set for a dynamic period, with 55 companies planning to raise over Rs 68,000 crore through Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). The first half of FY2025 has already seen 35 mainboard IPOs, collectively raising around Rs 32,000 crore with an average subscription rate of 61 times. The Indian market maintained a positive outlook in the first quarter of FY2025, driven by strong Q4FY24 earnings, favorable economic data, and positive global cues. Despite early June volatility following the 2024 <keyword id="19895394" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="lok-sabha" source="keywords">Lok Sabha</keyword> election results, market sentiment improved with the BJP securing 272 seats and a total of 292 seats for the NDA with allied support. This political stability under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership is expected to promote long-term economic growth, with a focus on infrastructure, electric mobility, startup support, power distribution, digital privacy, and healthcare initiatives. Corporate India's performance in the March quarter of FY2024 met expectations, showing double-digit growth in net profit and single-digit revenue increases. Non-lending companies experienced moderate operating margin expansion due to favorable commodity prices and cost controls. The peaking interest rates and continuity of <keyword id="19978691" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government-policies" source="keywords">government policies</keyword> are anticipated to support healthy corporate growth in FY2025. <h2>Growth to continue</h2>The government's push for increased <keyword id="20068449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ethanol-production" source="keywords">ethanol production</keyword> targets a 20% blending by 2026, benefiting ethanol-heavy sugar companies and promoting biofuel goals. The real estate market is projected to grow significantly, requiring Rs 14 lakh crore in debt financing from 2024 to 2026. This growth will positively impact the banking and financial sectors. Major telecom operators have raised tariffs post-election, potentially improving sector financials and paving the way for sector re-rating. Major cement players are expanding through acquisitions, with an expected 6-7% compounded growth and market dominance by the top five players by March 2025. FMCG Companies expect recovery in rural business due to factors like a normal monsoon, robust crop yields, and government measures, maintaining robust rural demand. The potential roll-out of the FAME 3 Scheme to support <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword> is anticipated, with a budgetary allocation of around Rs 10,000 crore. Sectors such as auto, cement, defence, railways, consumer durables, energy, and banking are expected to outperform. Lagging sectors like IT and specialty chemicals offer value-buying opportunities at lower levels. The structural bull market for Indian equity is supported by strong domestic fundamentals and government reforms, with a positive medium- to long-term market outlook. Globally, the US market showed resilience, except for the Dow Jones. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 5.25-5.50%, awaiting inflation to move towards the 2% target before considering rate cuts. The US GDP grew at 1.4% annually in Q1 2024, with mixed economic indicators highlighting both strengths and challenges. The Indian <keyword id="19926041" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IPO-market" source="keywords">IPO market</keyword> has seen significant growth, with a surge in companies seeking to list shares and a rise in capital raised. The first half of 2025 saw strong retail investor participation, reflecting confidence in India's growth prospects. Mahavir Lunawat, Managing Director, Pantomath Capital Advisors Private Limited, said, "Favourable market conditions, high liquidity, a conducive growth environment with stable interest rates, and benign inflation have facilitated a boom in the IPO market. The IPO market will experience a stronger pull post-budget. India is set to become the new equity funding frontier for global corporations." He further added. "We are on the brink of sustained, long-term momentum in the IPO market, with this year potentially becoming the best for IPOs. India's solid macroeconomic environment and promising growth prospects create an ideal backdrop for this vibrant IPO market. Additionally, there is robust participation from both domestic institutional investors and retail investors." With the Indian government's potential capex increase and the robust primary market activity, the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> is poised for sustained growth. The upcoming period is expected to see heightened market activity, further IPOs, and economic stability, creating a conducive environment for investment and development.

India may boost FY25 capex by 8-10% amid surging revenues and record RBI surplus, says Market Kaleidoscope report

The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) is likely to transfer approximately Rs 1000 billion to the <keyword id="19900449" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="government" source="keywords">government</keyword> IN <keyword id="19965933" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FY25" source="keywords">FY25</keyword> according to a report by Union Bank of India. The report highlights that RBI is anticipated to maintain a robust <keyword id="20047030" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="dividend" source="keywords">dividend</keyword> payout for the <keyword id="20093202" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fiscal-year" source="keywords">fiscal year</keyword> 2025 (FY25). This projection represents a slight increase from Rs 874 billion transferred in the previous fiscal year. "The government has budgeted the FY25 dividend for RBI and PSU banks &amp; financial institutions at INR 1020bn, vis-a-vis INR 1044bn in FY24. In our view, a positive surprise is likely, similar to last year when initial budget estimate for overall dividend was only INR 480bn" said the report. Analysts in the report predict a potential positive surprise, akin to the previous fiscal year, when the initial budget estimate for dividends was significantly lower at INR 480 billion. Despite several factors influencing RBI's dividend calculation, such as <keyword id="21195402" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-earnings" source="keywords">interest earnings</keyword> and foreign exchange (FX) gains, analysts predict a continuation of strong dividend figures. The majority of RBI's balance sheet, approximately 70 percent, consists of foreign currency assets, with another 20 per cent in domestic government bonds. Interest earnings from these securities are expected to range from Rs 1.5-1.7 trillion. Additionally, interest from liquidity operations has increased RBI's earnings, particularly as the banking system returned to a deficit mode from September 2023. While income gains of RBI from FX (Forex) sales decreased slightly due to lower sales volumes, they are expected to remain substantial despite a rise in the weighted average cost of <keyword id="20102143" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserves" source="keywords">reserves</keyword>. Moreover, a decline in provisions likely contributed to boosting RBI's dividend. Provisions for reserves, as per the Economic Capital Framework outlined by the Jalan committee, saw a rise in the contingency fund provision due to increased balance sheet growth. The impact of the RBI dividend announcement on markets may be limited in the near term, especially with ongoing elections potentially delaying government spending. However, if the surplus balance is utilized for activities like G-Sec buybacks, it could support the shorter end of the G-Sec curve. Overall, analysts maintain a positive outlook on longer-duration G-Secs due to favorable demand-supply dynamics. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/indian-smartphone-market-up-8-5g-smartphones-account-for-over-70-of-shipments/articleshow/110002512.cms" target="_blank">Indian smartphone market up 8%, 5G smartphones account for over 70% of shipments</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/webstories/ipl-decoded-highest-individual-scores-in-ipl-2024-so-far-from-stoinis-to-kohli/slidelist/110008351.cms" target="_blank">IPL Decoded: Highest individual scores in IPL 2024 so far, from Stoinis to Kohli</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/apple-and-samsung-dominate-the-top-selling-smartphones-in-q1-2024/slidelist/109977094.cms" target="_blank">Apple and Samsung dominate the top-selling smartphones in Q1 2024</a>

RBI likely to transfer ₹1 trillion to government in FY25

<ul><li><keyword id="67286" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="Orion">Food inflation</keyword> is expected to be elevated due to the heat wave’s impact on cereal and pulse prices.</li><li>Analysts mostly see shallow <keyword id="6752353" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="Orion">rate cuts</keyword> that might come in the third quarter of FY25, as the inflation picture emerges.</li><li>The Indian economy’s Goldilocks moment is continuing and might weigh on GDP growth projections of FY25 at 7%. </li></ul>The ongoing heatwave conditions, and projections of a harsher summer, are likely to impact India’s agricultural output, leading to rising food inflation. This, among others, is expected to weigh heavily on the rate-setting panel or monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting that will start today. “We estimate food inflation to remain elevated above 7.5% in the first half of 2024 on the back of high cereals and pulses (legumes) inflation on the back of an ongoing heatwave in the country. Altogether, we estimate headline (retail) inflation to remain above 5% in 1H 2024,” says a report by Goldman Sachs. Core inflation, however, has been easing, and LPG price cuts are also expected to add to the disinflation process, albeit modestly. Most analysts expect inflation to average around 4.5% for FY25 — and cool after a spike in September. ‘Slightly soften hawkish forward guidance’ The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) which intends to maintain retail inflation at around 4%, might go for possible interest rate cuts only in the third quarter of FY25, surmise analysts. “We believe the stance should continue to be withdrawal of accommodation. RBI might cut rates only in the third quarter of FY25, such rate cut cycle is likely to be shallow,” said a report by SBI Research. In the meantime, there is ample room for the central bank to hold rates. "We do not expect any change in the policy rate, but a probable explicit or implicit change in stance cannot be ruled out. RBI may acknowledge that core inflation is trending down,” Parijat Agrawal, head – fixed income at Union Mutual Fund, said on the April policy. Apart from softening core inflation, easing liquidity conditions are also expected to provide comfort to the central bank. Thanks to active interventions by the RBI, government spending over the last month has softened inter-bank rates and short-term borrowing rates for bank and non-bank entities. “Liquidity conditions have eased in the past few weeks, with ongoing balance of payments surpluses and pre-election spending likely to keep liquidity conditions in check,” says a report by Barclays. Goldman forecasts one 25 basis-point cut each in Q3 and Q4 of 2024. “We expect the RBI to take comfort from declining core inflation, slightly soften its hawkish forward guidance, but remain cautious given upside risks to food inflation from weather shocks, and repricing of the Fed funds rate easing path,” it added. Signs of slack in the economy The central bank ‘upgraded’ its GDP growth rate expectation for FY24 to 7.3%. It also expects FY25’s growth rate to average at 7%. The market is keenly looking forward to RBI’s commentary on growth projections. As of now, there has been a mixed growth picture. Every economic indicator comes with a rider attached, which Barclays calls ‘signs of slack’ in the economy. For example, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in Q3 FY24, from 1.3% in the previous quarter. While manageable CAD is good news, it also expands during high periods of growth. The government also projected its fiscal deficit to fall to 5.1% in FY25 as compared to 5.8% in FY24. These targets are to be achieved by moderation in government capex and lowering of expenditure. “The latter implies limited direct support to consumption demand from the budget, which, while positive for inflation, also means the fiscal impulse on growth has moderated compared with earlier years,” says Barclays. Economic indicators are also mixed. While cargo traffic, air passenger numbers, and toll collection are falling, vehicle sales are seeing double-digit growth in the last quarter of FY24. “High-frequency activity data remains strong, with our proprietary indices tracking a rebound in consumption growth at 7.9% yoy in Jan-March of 2024 (vs 3.5% in December quarter), but slower investment growth at 2.3% yoy (vs. 10.6% YoY in December quarter) as the government has front-loaded capex,” says Goldman Sachs. The Goldilocks moment of the Indian economy is raising expectations that the RBI might take a call based on the same. “Eventually, we think the RBI will have to consider the balance of risks between overtightening (given the 'not-too-hot-nor-too-cold' state of the economy) and maintaining monetary policy conditions for achieving reasonably good real GDP growth of at least 7%,” says Barclays.

With food inflation looming large, ‘shallow rate’ cuts expected only in Q3 FY25

Residential property demand in India at a 10-year high with mid and premium buyers on the rise

Mumbai, Stating that the country's external balances are stronger than expected on the back of strong inflows, a Wall Street brokerage on Tuesday projected a much lower current account deficit which is likely to print at 1 per cent for this fiscal, leaving the balance of payment surplus at USD 39 billion. <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="goldman-sachs" source="keywords">Goldman Sachs</keyword> in a report said the country's external balances remain favourable with a combination of low CAD, strong capital flows, adequate forex reserves and low external debt. Combined with this, expectations for a weaker dollar due to the likely five <keyword id="19951097" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="us-fed" source="keywords">US Fed</keyword> rate cuts this year suggest a "goldilocks" environment for the country's external balances. Accordingly, the Wall Street major has revised upwards its current account deficit (CAD) forecast to 1 per cent of GDP for FY24 from 1.3 per cent earlier, and 1.3 per cent for FY25 from 1.9 per cent earlier, citing a downward revision to their oil price forecast to USD81/barrel in 2024 from above USD90 earlier; and services exports continuing to surprise higher than prior expectations. The brokerage expects robust capital flows in 2024, driven by strong equity portfolio flows as the Fed starts the easing cycle; robust debt inflows as the bonds are included in the JP <keyword id="20036913" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="morgan" source="keywords">Morgan</keyword>'s global government bond index from June 2024; and higher FDI inflows with the country continuing to benefit from regional supply chain diversification. These capital inflows should help offset lower net corporate dollar borrowing inflows owing to sizable maturities of earlier loans coming up in 2024, it said, adding overall, the balance of payment surplus should jump to USD 39 billion in FY24 but fall to USD 27 billion in the next fiscal. The country's oil imports fell to USD 164 billion in the January-November 2023 period from USD 189 billion a year ago as oil prices were 18 per cent lower during the period. Similarly, services trade surplus is tracking higher as exports have surprised to the upside, driven by both business and software services. With US growth remaining resilient, the report expects services export to remain strong and services trade balance will print in at USD 158 billion up from USD 148 billion. These two will balance out the rise in gold imports which so far stood at USD39.6 billion and may close the fiscal USD44 billion from USD37 billion in FY23. On the other hand non-oil and non-gold imports are tracking marginally higher than earlier forecasts driven mainly by electronic goods and machinery imports among the major sub-components, and may close the year at USD445 billion from USD440 billion. Net FDI inflows stood at USD17 billion up to October 2023 compared to USD36 billion a year ago, while both equity and debt inflows have picked up in Q3 and at the current run rates they may close at USD28 billion this fiscal up from USD24 billion. The report sees the country's external vulnerabilities remaining low with comfortable import cover at around 11 months, higher than the pre-pandemic average of 9.5 months, and the forex reserves as a share of external debt of 99 per cent is at its highest level in the past 10 years, excluding the pandemic years. On the rupee, the brokerage said it continues to see the rupee as a relatively low-volatility carry currency. But quickly noted that despite this "goldilocks" scenario, the rupee is likely to underperform most EM Asia currencies as they expect the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to accumulate inflows and build forex reserves at every opportunity. They continue to expect the dollar/rupee pair to hover around 83-82 in the next three to six months, and then appreciate slightly to 81 over the next 12 months.

Goldman Sachs sees India current account deficit falling to 1% of GDP this fiscal

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], September 28 (ANI): The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) has released preliminary data on India's Balance of Payments (BoP) for the first quarter (Q1) of the fiscal year 2023-24, covering the period from April to June. The data reveals significant developments and trends in India's economic position on the global stage. One of the standout features of India's BoP in Q1: 2023-24 was the substantial narrowing of the Current Account Deficit (<keyword id="52599" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="cad" source="Orion">CAD</keyword>). The CAD decreased to USD 9.2 billion, equivalent to 1.1 per cent of GDP, showing an improvement from USD 17.9 billion, or 2.1 per cent of GDP, in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year (Q1: 2022-23). However, it was higher than the CAD recorded in the preceding quarter, which stood at USD 1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP). The widening of the CAD on a quarter-on-quarter basis was primarily attributed to several factors. A higher trade deficit, coupled with a decrease in the surplus of net services and a decline in private transfer receipts, contributed to this trend. Net services receipts registered a sequential decrease in Q1: 2023-24, mainly due to a decline in exports of computer, travel, and business services. However, it's important to note that these receipts remained higher on a year-on-year basis. Private transfer receipts, primarily consisting of remittances by Indians employed overseas, moderated to USD 27.1 billion in Q1: 2023-24 from USD 28.6 billion in the previous quarter (Q4: 2022-23). Despite this decrease, they witnessed an increase on a year-on-year basis. The income account, which reflects payments of investment income, showed a decline to USD 10.6 billion in Q1: 2023-24 from USD 12.6 billion in Q4: 2022-23. However, this figure was still higher than the previous year. In the financial account, notable changes were observed. Net foreign direct investment decreased to USD 5.1 billion in Q1: 2023-24 from USD 13.4 billion a year ago. Net foreign portfolio investment recorded significant inflows of USD 15.7 billion compared to net outflows of USD 14.6 billion in Q1: 2022-23. Net external commercial borrowings to India recorded an inflow of USD 5.6 billion in Q1: 2023-24, contrasting with an outflow of USD 2.9 billion in the previous year. Non-resident deposits recorded net inflows of USD 2.2 billion in Q1: 2023-24, a notable increase compared to USD 0.3 billion in Q1: 2022-23. As of the end of June 2023, India's external debt reached USD 629.1 billion. This marked an increase of USD 4.7 billion over its level at the end of March 2023. The data from RBI's Balance of Payments report for Q1: 2023-24 reflects the dynamic nature of India's economic landscape. Despite fluctuations, the narrowing of the current account deficit and increased foreign investment inflows signal positive developments in India's global economic interactions. Analysts and policymakers will closely monitor these trends, as they have significant implications for India's overall economic stability and prospects in the coming fiscal year.

India's balance of payments shows improvement in Q1 FY24

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6354335" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword>) plans to transfer ₹ 99,122 crore as surplus to the Centre for nine months ended March 31, 2021.</li><li>The surplus is considerably higher than what the RBI has put forth in the last two years. </li><li>According to the chief economist at ICRA, the funds will allow the <keyword id="44734" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-Government">Indian government</keyword> to absorb the losses that it is likely to face due to the second wave of COVID-19.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will transfer ₹ 99,122 crore as surplus to the Centre for nine months ended March 31, 2021. The decision was taken at the 589th meeting of the Central Board under the chairmanship of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, through video conference. "The amount of surplus to be transferred by the RBI to the Government of India is considerably higher than the budgeted level," said Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at ICRA. According to her, this will offer a buffer to absorb the losses in indirect tax revenues that are anticipated in May-June 2021, related to the impact of the now widespread state lockdowns on the level of consumption on discretionary items and contact-intensive services. "Moreover, high commodity prices at a time when demand and pricing power are subdued, would dent the margins of corporates in many sectors, compressing the growth in direct tax collections," said Nayar. The RBI, in its meeting, reviewed the current economic situation, global and domestic challenges and recent policy measures taken by the Reserve Bank to mitigate the adverse impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on the economy. "The Board also approved the transfer of ₹ 99,122 crore as surplus to the Central Government for the accounting period of nine months ended March 31, 2021 (July 2020-March 2021), while deciding to maintain the Contingency Risk Buffer at 5.50 per cent," the apex institution said in a statement. (With inputs from IANS) SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-rate-of-covid-19-infections-may-be-slowing-down-but-its-economy-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/articleshow/82820037.cms">The latest wave of COVID-19 infections may have taken the economy back to June 2020</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/esper-an-android-based-development-platform-raises-30-million-as-pandemic-accelerates-adoption-of-intelligent-devices/articleshow/82822560.cms">Esper, an Android-based development platform, raises $30 million as pandemic accelerates adoption of intelligent devices</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/apps/news/clubhouse-for-android-is-now-available-in-india-but-it-may-be-too-little-too-late/articleshow/82821238.cms">Clubhouse for Android is now available in India, but it may be too little too late</a>

RBI is giving more money to fill the budget hole that may get bigger after the second wave of COVID-19

<ul><li>The <keyword id="6369693" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="Orion">MPC</keyword> has unanimously decided to keep the rates unchanged.</li><li>The central bank paused its rate hike cycle in February this year.</li><li>Economists expected MPC to stay with the ‘pause’ on interest rates, with fresh risks to inflation. GDP growth projection retained at 6.5%. </li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India’s (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) rate setting panel kept the policy <keyword id="43352" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="Orion">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5% on Friday. The <keyword id="6357126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="Orion">Monetary Policy</keyword> Committee (MPC) has unanimously decided to keep the rates unchanged in the October meeting. There is no change in its stance either - it is retained at withdrawal of accommodation. The central bank also announced that it was withdrawing its incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR), which was introduced in August to withdraw surplus liquidity from the system. “It’s a status quo policy but there are many aspects that I will spell out which will reveal our approach to the global headwinds,” said Shaktikanta Das, governor of RBI. This is the fifth time that the MPC has kept policy rates unchanged since February. The MPC has remained focussed on withdrawal of accommodation. “India is poised to be the growth engine of the world. Need of the hour is to remain vigilant. High inflation is a major risk and MPC is focussed on aligning it to the 4% target,” Das added. The RBI projects India’s GDP to grow at 6.5% in FY24. CPI inflation is projected to be at 5.4% for the financial year, which remains unchanged. The Reserve Bank of India’s rate setting panel was expected to stay with the ‘pause’ on interest rates, as fresh risks have emerged to inflation. The central bank has paused its rate hike cycle in February this year. In August, India's retail inflation moderated to 6.8% from a high of 7.4% in July. The lower inflation print was due to a fall in the prices of vegetables after they went through the roof in July on patchy rains in some parts of the country. Just as it seemed that inflation was cooling in August, 30% higher crude oil prices and a stronger dollar will have worsened the outlook for inflation in the future. Higher crude prices have a cascading effect on goods that need to be transported. Economists expect September’s inflation data to remain above the RBI’s upper tolerance band. CareEdge Ratings expects the RBI to miss its Q2 inflation projections by nearly 60 basis points and will consequently revise its whole-year projection to 5.6% from an earlier projection of 5.4%. Even though the risks to inflation remain elevated, the MPC was expected to hike rates as many other central banks have done in the last few months. However, in the face of rising global bond yields, ever strengthening dollar index and higher crude oil prices, debt market experts expect RBI to continue with 'withdrawal of accommodation'”policy stance. Systemic liquidity will be tightened further in the second half. The market did not, therefore, expect RBI to take any permanent liquidity withdrawal measures. Systemic liquidity, which had been in surplus at ₹2.1 trillion during the August MPC meeting, transitioned into a deficit of ₹1.5 trillion by 27 September. This shift has increased money market rates, with the overnight call money rate rising from 6.4% to 6.8%. The RBI announced that it would implement an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) in its August MPC meeting, which sucked out liquidity to the tune of ₹1.1 trillion from the banking system. Despite the gradual withdrawal of the I-CRR, systemic liquidity continued to stay in the deficit since mid-September due to quarterly tax outflows. The central bank’s interventions in the foreign exchange market have marginally contributed to some absorption of rupee liquidity. The RBI was also expected to retain the GDP forecast for the full financial year at 6.5% as headwinds have not yet settled. The central bank will wait to see data emerging after the festive season and output from the kharif season before changing forecast again.

RBI’s MPC maintains status quo, keeps repo rate unchanged

<ul><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> has said that 25% of the amount of I-CRR maintained by banks will be released on Saturday and another 25% on September 23. </li><li>Releasing money in tranches helps to smoothen out liquidity and avoid sudden gush of funds, says Madan Fadnavis of Bank of Baroda.</li><li></li></ul> The Reserve Bank on Friday decided to discontinue the <keyword id="18349664" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="incremental-cash-reserve-ratio" source="Orion">Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio</keyword> (I-CRR), which was put in place to absorb surplus liquidity following the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 currency notes, in a phased manner beginning Saturday. On August 10, the RBI mandated banks to maintain an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) of 10% on the increase in their net demand and time liabilities (<keyword id="312584" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDTL" source="Orion">NDTL</keyword>) between May 19, 2023 and July 28, 2023. The measure was intended to absorb the surplus liquidity generated by various factors, including the return of Rs 2,000 notes to the banking system. "On a review, it has been decided to discontinue the I-CRR in a phased manner," the central bank said in a statement. There is surplus liquidity in system of around Rs 75,000 cr of late, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. He adds, "Releasing money in tranches helps to smoothen out liquidity and avoid sudden gush of funds." Based on an assessment of current and evolving liquidity conditions, it has been decided that the amounts impounded under the I-CRR would be released in stages so that system liquidity is not subjected to sudden shocks and money markets function in an orderly manner, it added. The RBI said 25% of the amount of I-CRR maintained by banks will be released on Saturday and another 25% on September 23. The rest will be released on October 7. While announcing the I-CRR, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> had indicated that the provision was a temporary measure for managing the liquidity overhang. The RBI had announced that the I-CRR would be reviewed on September 8, 2023, or earlier with a view to returning the impounded funds to the banking system ahead of the festival season. Following the withdrawal of the Rs 2,000 notes, the liquidity with the banks had surged significantly, the I-CRR was aimed to absorb the excess cash. As much as 93% of Rs 2000 currency notes that were in circulation on May 19 -- the day when the currency was withdrawn from circulation -- have been returned to banks. The advance tax payments are due next week which will put pressure on liquidity further. The total value of Rs 2000 banknotes received back from circulation is Rs 3.32 lakh crore up to August 31, 2023. Fadnavis adds, "The question is whether this will be adequate next week when there are tax outflow. This is because the amount coming in of around Rs 25-27,000 cr will cover the outflow through the V3R today and will not leave much surplus." (With text inputs from PTI)

RBI decides to withdraw incremental CRR in phased manner and release it by Oct 7

<ul><li>RBI is giving the government 67% less money than it did last year</li><li>The government is already pumping money out to address the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.</li><li>The lacklustre amount is unlikely to be enough to address the government’s budgetary concerns.</li></ul>The <keyword id="6354335" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has doled out half a billion rupees as surplus to the Indian government but it won’t be nearly enough to bridge the <keyword id="1000311" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="budget-gap">budget gap</keyword>. This year’s annual payout from the RBI to the Indian government was a lacklustre ₹57,128 crore ($7.62 trillion). The payment is only one-third of what RBI shelled out last year. <div type="image" title="RBI annual allocation" msid="77546468" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;RBI&amp;#39;s annual allocation over the past five years&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> In 2019, the RBI allocated a record ₹1,76,000 crore ($23.5 billion), which was mostly made up of the dividend payout — only ₹52,640 crore was surplus capital. <div type="image" title="snapshot-1597408467844" msid="77546493" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Division of last year&amp;#39;s annual allocation by the RBI&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> India’s central bank hit the lower end of expectations with analysts forecasting this year’s allocation to be anything from <a href="https://theprint.in/economy/modi-govt-awaits-rbi-dividend-but-it-wont-help-plug-revenue-hole-created-by-covid/481350/">₹40,000 crore to ₹ 1,00,000 crore. </a>One of the factors that dictated the low payout is that 5.5% has been set aside as a ‘contingency risk buffer’. The government was hoping for more capital to bridge the budgetary gap caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This includes lower tax realisation, higher expenditure on healthcare and overall disruption to pre-COVID activities. The RBI, on the other hand, is falling short of its revenue projections with the Indian economy poised to contract for the full year in more than four decades. Not that the surplus capital is unlikely to help with the government’s needs, some of the other options it has on hand are withdrawing more cash out of the central bank, selling state assets or increasing borrowing — something that’s already at a record high. The fiscal deficit was already at ₹4.66 lakh crore — or 58.6% of the budget estimate — within the first two months of the current financial year.

RBI’s annual surplus to the government this year is only one-third of what it was last year

Mumbai, Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> on Thursday said the <keyword id="50847" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="Orion">Reserve Bank</keyword> is not "unduly concerned" about the Russian investments in Indian government bonds. Without sharing the details of the trade surplus invested by Russian entities in government securities (G-secs), Das underlined that trade relations between the two countries are for the long term and there is no reason to fear a pullout of the money. In May this year, the Indian Banks Association had said that <keyword id="6358826" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> is investing the surplus it earns out of oil sales to India in G-secs, but the market's estimates on the quantum vary from USD 10-22 billion. "Its not something about which we are really unduly concerned. We are not concerned unduly because market has its estimates. So far as we are concerned, it is not going to cause any (impact)," Das told reporters at the post-policy press meet here. He added that India is "far better placed" with forex reserves of over USD 600 billion to deal with any situation. Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said it will not be proper for the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> to speak specifically about the amounts invested by a country or a particular entity, but added that such investments are allowed through the foreign portfolio investor or vostro account route. "It may not be accurate to think that the trade surplus is staying in the country. Because a large part of that is oil. Oil, up to the global cap can be paid through the normal channels. It is getting paid, most of it is getting paid, some of it could be remaining as rupee balances in SRVA accounts. Don't include the trade balance of USD 40 billion or something to the amount that must remain within the country," Sankar added. Das also said that after the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out last year, there were fears of a depreciation in the rupee but the same did not turn out to be true because of RBI's market interventions. "...none of that happened because the RBI was there in the market. And RBI is always there in the market," Das said, adding that the RBI is confident of dealing with any situation if at all it arises.

RBI not 'unduly concerned' about Russian investments in G-secs, says Das

<keyword id="3658" type="LOCATION" weightage="20" keywordseo="India">India</keyword> reported a <keyword id="143643" type="PERSON" weightage="20" keywordseo="current-account">current account</keyword> surplus of 0.9 per cent of <keyword id="35050" type="CITY" weightage="20" keywordseo="gdp">GDP</keyword> in the pandemic-hit FY21, as against a <keyword id="6420764" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="20" keywordseo="deficit">deficit</keyword> of 0.9 per cent in FY20, data released by the <keyword id="30067" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI">RBI</keyword> showed on Wednesday. The country's current account deficit widened to USD 8.1 billion or 1 per cent of GDP for the March quarter, as against a surplus of USD 0.6 billion or 0.1 per cent of the GDP in the year-ago period and a deficit of 0.3 per cent in the preceding December quarter, as per the central bank data. The CAD, the gap between the country's overall foreign receipts and payments, is an important factor representing a nation's external sector's strength. The <keyword id="6354335" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> said the current account balance swung into the surplus territory on the back of a sharp contraction in the trade deficit to USD 102.2 billion from USD 157.5 billion in 2019-20. Net invisible receipts were lower in FY21 due to an increase in net outgo of overseas investment income payments and lower net private transfer receipts, even though net services receipts were higher than the year-ago period, it said. Despite the pandemic, the net foreign direct investment inflows at USD 44 billion were higher in FY21 than the USD 43.0 billion in 2019-20, the central bank added. Net foreign portfolio investments also increased by USD 36.1 billion in FY21 as compared to USD 1.4 billion a year ago, it said. External commercial borrowings by <keyword id="46431" type="COMPANY" weightage="20" keywordseo="India-Inc">India Inc</keyword> recorded an inflow of USD 0.2 billion as compared to USD 21.7 billion in 2019-20, the RBI data showed. There was an accretion of USD 87.3 billion to foreign exchange reserve on a balance of payments basis, it said. The current account deficit in the March quarter was higher primarily on account of a higher trade deficit and lower net invisible receipts than in the corresponding period of the previous year, the RBI said. Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, increased to USD 20.9 billion, up by 1.7 per cent from the year-ago level. Net outgo from the primary income account, primarily reflecting net overseas investment income payments, increased to USD 8.7 billion from USD 4.8 billion a year ago, according to the data. The net FDI came at USD 2.7 billion during the March quarter as against USD 12 billion in the year-ago period. Net foreign portfolio investment (FPI) increased by USD 7.3 billion - mainly on account of net purchases in the equity market - as against a decline of USD 13.7 billion in Q4 FY20. Net external commercial borrowings to India was lower at USD 6.1 billion in the March quarter as compared to USD 9.4 billion a year ago, the RBI said. See also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/apps/news/one-year-of-chinese-apps-ban-indian-alternatives-take-over-tiktok/articleshow/83943865.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">One year of Chinese apps ban — Indian alternatives take over TikTok</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/cryptocurrency/news/chinas-oldest-crypto-exchange-exits-cryptocurrency-business-amid-government-crackdown-on-bitcoin-mining/articleshow/83953113.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">China's oldest crypto exchange exits cryptocurrency business amid government crackdown on Bitcoin mining</a>

You Searched For "RBI surplus" and got 12 results

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