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India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

Star India is set to produce a new web series spotlighting the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) and its critical role in shaping India’s economy over the past 90 years. The RBI, established in 1935, celebrated its 90th anniversary this April, and the upcoming series will aim to deepen public understanding of the central bank’s operations and achievements. Several prominent media companies — Star India Private Limited, Viacom 18, Zee Entertainment Network Limited, and Discovery Communications India — competed for the project. Following a request for proposal (RFP) by the RBI in July, Star India secured the contract, valued at Rs 6.5 crore, after progressing through final evaluations alongside Viacom 18. The RBI's vision for the series, as outlined in the RFP, includes five episodes of about 25-30 minutes each. This format will allow for an engaging, in-depth look into the RBI’s journey, from its establishment in pre-independence India to its modern-day functions. The episodes will delve into the RBI's mission and vision, major achievements, and ongoing developments, aiming to make the central bank’s functions more relatable and accessible to the general public. With expert interviews, high-quality visuals, and storytelling, the series is designed to demystify complex financial topics for a broad audience. By presenting the RBI's key initiatives, collaborations, and challenges in an engaging way, Star India hopes to foster greater transparency and trust in the central bank. The series will be available on both national television and OTT platforms, expanding its reach and impact. The RBI views this web series as a valuable tool to promote financial literacy. By making the central bank's work understandable and interesting, the series could serve as a bridge between the RBI and the public, contributing to a more financially aware society. (With inputs from agencies)

Curious to know what the Reserve Bank does? Star India will soon produce a web series narrating the RBI's 90-year journey

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], August 8 (ANI): <keyword id="64190" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI-Governor" source="Orion">RBI Governor</keyword> <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Shaktikanta-Das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> says <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and <keyword id="489239" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Global-food-prices" source="Orion">global food prices</keyword> have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent." The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "<keyword id="21258540" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="headline-inflation" source="keywords">Headline inflation</keyword> eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, outlined the <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> with real <keyword id="19972825" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth" source="keywords">GDP growth</keyword> of 7.2 per cent for the fiscal year 2024-25 and headline inflation eased to 5.1 per cent in June, on Thursday. Das said, "Real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2 per cent with Q1 at 7.1 per cent, Q2 at 7.2 per cent, Q3 at 7.3 per cent and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26, this is something which we are giving for the first time, is projected at 7.2 per cent. The risks are evenly balanced." He added, "We have slightly moderated the <keyword id="387719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-projection" source="Orion">growth projection</keyword> for the first quarter of the current financial year in relation to the projection we gave in the previous MPC in June. This is primarily due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure and core industries output." This forecast marks a slight moderation from previous estimates provided in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in June, attributed to recent updates on high-frequency indicators such as corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. The inflation landscape reflects mixed signals, to which Das said, "Headline inflation eased up to 5.1 per cent in June 2024 due to higher than expected food inflation. Fuel remained in deflation for the 10th consecutive month. Core inflation moderated to a historic low in the months of May and June." Balancing robust growth projections with a nuanced understanding of inflation dynamics Governor Das stated, "Food inflation which has a weight of around 46 per cent in the CPI basket, contributed to more than 75 per cent of headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices increased sharply and contributed about 35 per cent to inflation in June. High inflation pressures persisted across other major food items also." Governor Das mentioned softening in core inflation continues to be broad-based with core services inflation touching a new low in the current CPI series during the month of May and June 2024. Das stated, "The high food price momentum likely to have continued in the month of July also. Large favourable base effects may however push headline inflation downwards in July. The Impact of the revision in milk prices mobile tariffs also needs to be carefully monitored." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in south west monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta das. Das anticipates some relief in food inflation due to the expected pickup in the southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals remain above the normative levels, contributing to a more stable food price environment. Global food prices, which have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, showed signs of easing in July.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

India's <keyword id="22879519" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="organised-gold-loan-market" source="keywords">organised gold loan market</keyword> is projected to double in the next five years to Rs 14.19 lakh crore despite expected moderation in growth due to stricter regulations, according to a <keyword id="19938520" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="PwC-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="PwC India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="PwC India">PwC India</keyword> report. In fiscal 2023-24, the organised <keyword id="21627536" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-loan-market" source="keywords">gold loan market</keyword> demonstrated substantial growth, reaching a valuation of Rs 7.1 lakh crore, according to the report titled 'Striking gold: The rise of India's gold loan market' . "It is expected to reach around Rs 14.19 lakh crore by FY 2029 at a five-year CAGR of 14.85 %," it said. Indian families own massive quantities of gold, estimated at 25,000 tonne. Existing gold holdings with <keyword id="19895507" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-households" source="keywords">Indian households</keyword> are valued at roughly Rs 126 lakh crore, the report said. It further said the gold loan market is poised to see moderate growth over the next two years, as gold lenders are facing increased scrutiny from regulatory authorities regarding loan-to-value (LTV) maintenance and auction-related procedures. "The second-largest player in the gold loan market being inactive would have an impact on market growth in FY25," the report said. Also, the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>'s advisory to <keyword id="19938300" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NBFCs" source="keywords">NBFCs</keyword> on cash disbursement, which limits the amount of cash disbursal to Rs 20,000, could push customers to rely on the unorganised sector. The regulator has also raised concerns about the evaluation process for lending activities through fintech startups. The increased regulatory scrutiny and revised guidelines have led to a dip in the share prices of leading NBFCs, PwC said. "Gold loan lenders are expected to use this period to ensure that they are compliant with all regulatory guidelines while undertaking several measures to optimise their middle and back offices through digitisation initiatives," it said. Lenders are also expected to implement cost optimisation initiatives that will help drive up the bottom-line profitability of their companies and enhance investor confidence which has slightly depleted as a result of the regulatory scrutiny. Furthermore, the report said rising gold prices over the past financial year may also drive lenders to take a cautious approach to lending rates and pricing as any downward movement in gold prices will result in a substantial LTV breach that will further create operational issues for lenders in the form of auctions. "The growth of the gold loan market is expected to be steered by both banks and NBFCs," the report said. The emergence of digital gold loan aggregator platforms and their strategic collaboration with gold loan lenders such as banks and NBFCs will be a key driving factor for the growth of the industry, enabling gold loan lenders to tap into a previously untapped segment of digitally savvy customers. "While the forecasted growth of the gold loan market means potential growth for all players, the impact on the players may vary. Banks are expected to benefit from their lower interest rates," PwC said. Jaikrishnan G, Partner (Financial Services), PwC India said lending against gold is the oldest form of credit. It remains one of the most attractive options for consumer as well as lenders. "High return-on-assets, manageable risk, timely regulatory interventions, growing adoption, tech-enabled operating models have all contributed to sector growth. As India embraces the vision of Viksit Bharat, gold loans will provide much needed liquidity and credit access to growing small and medium entrepreneur segments," he said. The report further said growth by NBFCs is expected to be fuelled by their expansion and increased outreach to regions with low penetration, bringing new credit customers to the financial services ecosystem. Also, fintechs will play a critical role in bringing in the required technology and innovation into the industry, thus helping lenders to create unique product propositions to boost growth, it said. <keyword id="20037818" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="South-India" source="keywords">South India</keyword> contributes to a vast extent, as it emerges as the dominant market for gold loans, with 79.1% share of the total outstanding loans. The report also noted that an assumption can be made that the entire Rs 126 lakh crore worth of gold will not be available for pledging due to various reasons like jewelry belonging to religious institutions, jewellery with emotional value, and certain jewellery held by individuals who are not in need of finance.

Gold loan market projected to double in 5 years to Rs 14.19 lakh crore, says PwC India's report

India's retail inflation is projected to surge to 6.15% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance threshold of 6%, according to a new report by Union Bank of India. The spike is attributed to persistent <keyword id="21013592" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-price-pressures" source="keywords">food price pressures</keyword> and the waning of favorable base effects from the previous year. Earlier this month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das also echoed similar sentiments and noted that the inflation print for October 2024 could stay well above 5.5%. This is why, as Das highlighted, cutting interest rates as early as December would be very early and premature The <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) data for October, which will be released at 4 pm on Tuesday, as opposed to the previous practice of releasing this data at 5:30 pm on the 12th of every month, follows September's inflation reading of 5.49%, up from 3.65% in August 2024. The last time inflation breached the RBI's upper limit was in August 2023. Despite the RBI's anticipation of an October inflation "hump," the Union Bank report suggests that the magnitude of the increase might raise concerns, particularly as November's figures are also tracking at elevated levels. The bank maintains its forecast of unchanged interest rates in December's monetary policy meeting, with a modest 50 basis points rate cut cycle predicted to begin in February 2025. Food inflation remains a key driver of price pressures, with vegetables and edible oils leading the recent surge. In September 2024, India's YoY food inflation rate hit 9.24%, up from 5.66% in the month prior. However, the report projects some easing of food inflation in the January-March quarter, citing typical winter price moderation and improving prospects for rabi crops. Despite this, potential risks from food supply disruptions, imported edible oil prices, and the impact of potential trade tariff hikes will exist. The RBI, which aims to maintain retail inflation at 4%, has held the repo rate steady at 6.5% for the tenth consecutive time in its last meeting as part of its inflation containment strategy. A recent SBI report also noted that expecting rate cuts in this quarter would be immature, and easing was possible only during the first half of 2025. "Given the current estimates of FY25 real GDP growth at 7.2% and CPI at 4.50%, the RBI would quite possibly keep policy rates stable over the coming quarter at least. Emerging trends in the growth outlook would possibly determine the timing and extent of any policy easing. With near-term CPI numbers likely to stay elevated, it’s premature to consider expectations of any easing in the December review. "However, high-frequency data do validate a softness in growth data on an incremental basis. Given the anticipated aligning of CPI closer to the target over H2, a shallow easing, if any can be a reasonable possibility over H1 of CY 25", it added.

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

<keyword id="21983451" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Asian-earnings-growth" source="keywords">Asian earnings growth</keyword> is forecasted to outpace that of the US and Europe for both this year and the next, according to a recent analysis by CLSA quoting Bloomberg's projections. This optimistic outlook aligns with the Re serve Bank of India's (RBI) latest monetary policy report, which predicts a robust growth rate of 7.2 per cent for India in the fiscal year 2025. According to CLSA, the projections for Earnings Per Share growth (EPSg) reveal that the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Asia-Pacific index is expected to see a substantial increase of 15.0 per cent in 2024, followed by a steady 11.9 per cent in 2025. In contrast, the MSCI World index, which includes global companies, is expected to grow by a more modest 7.9 per cent in 2024 and 11.9 per cent in 2025. The US market, represented by the S&amp;P 500, is forecasted to grow by 10.5 per cent in 2024 and 13.1 per cent in 2025. Meanwhile, Europe's growth, represented by the MSCI Europe index, is predicted to face a decline of 5.2 per cent in 2024, before recovering to an 8.1 per cent increase in 2025. Emerging markets (MSCI EM), driven largely by Asian economies, are expected to see the most significant growth with a 18.1 per cent increase in 2024 and 14.7 per cent in 2025. The strongest performer among these, MSCI Asia excluding Japan, is expected to achieve a remarkable 22.9 per cent growth in 2024 and 15.3 per cent in 2025. This highlights the shifting focus towards Asia as a critical driver of global economic growth. India stands out in the Asian growth narrative, with the RBI's projection of a 7.2 per cent growth rate for 2025 reflecting strong domestic economic fundamentals. This growth is attributed to various factors, including strong consumption, a resilient services sector, and a boost in investment and infrastructure development. Key metrics such as EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) and net margins are being closely watched, with many Asian stocks showing continued expansion in these areas. Moreover, companies that consistently improve their Return on Equity (ROE) and Economic Value Added to Invested Capital (EVA/IC) are gaining significant attention. In addition to earnings growth, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is contributing to the positive outlook in the Asian market. The rising demand for AI capabilities and associated technologies, such as data centers and the requisite computational power, is expected to bolster economic growth further. A recent report by Yew Kiang Wong, Head of REITs Research, emphasises the potential for significant gains in the ASEAN region from these technological advancements. The stark contrast in earnings growth forecasts between Asia and other regions underscores the shifting dynamics in the global economy. Investors and analysts are increasingly looking to Asia for growth opportunities, driven by strong economic fundamentals, technological advancements, and favourable demographic trends.

With strong growth momentum in India, Asian earnings growth to outpace US and Europe this year: Report

<ul><li>Benchmark equity indices <keyword id="19896382" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sensex" source="keywords">Sensex</keyword> and <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> climbed over 2% to settle at record closing high levels on Friday.</li><li>The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) revised upwards the <keyword id="21973542" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="GDP-growth-projection" source="keywords">GDP growth projection</keyword> to 7.2% for 2024-25 from 7% earlier.</li><li>IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains.</li></ul>Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty climbed over 2 per cent to settle at record closing high levels on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised upwards the GDP growth projection to 7.2 per cent for 2024-25 from 7 per cent earlier. The 30-share <keyword id="19895774" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="BSE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="BSE" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="BSE">BSE</keyword> Sensex jumped 1,720.8 points, or 2.29 per cent, to hit a new record peak of 76,795.31 in day trade. The benchmark ended at 76,693.36, up 1,618.85 points, or 2.16 per cent. The NSE Nifty climbed 498.8 points, or 2.18 per cent, to 23,320.20 during the day and is just 18.5 points from hitting its <keyword id="19953076" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="record-high" source="keywords">record high</keyword> level. It settled with a jump of 468.75 points, or 2.05 per cent, at 23,290.15. IT and interest rate-sensitive bank, realty, and auto stocks ended with sharp gains. The RBI left its key interest rates unchanged on Friday as expected, keeping the focus on inflation amid robust economic growth that is likely to provide the new Modi government headroom for manoeuvring reforms. The Monetary Policy Committee, consisting of three RBI and an equal number of external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent for an eighth straight policy meeting and stuck to its relatively hawkish stance of "withdrawal of accommodation", Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his statement. "The Nifty gained 759 points over the week to close at 23,290. A classic rebound at the markets this week from the depths of pessimism. For a lot of market participants the trading action must have looked quite illogical in comparison to the news flow that was on offer. The Nifty witnessed a rebound of 2000 points and closed at the high point of the week. It was a very volatile week and neither the bulls nor the bears wanted to give up. The broader markets underperformed as compared to the mainline indices," said Tejas Shah, Technical Research, JM Financial &amp; BlinkX. With the Indian economy, Asia's third-largest, growing faster than expected in the previous year, the RBI raised its GDP growth projection for the current fiscal through March 2025 to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent while maintaining its inflation forecast at 4.5 per cent. "The anticipation of stability within the coalition government at the centre, coupled with the RBI's upward revision of its growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2 per cent, fuelled a broad-based rally in the domestic market. The Indian market surpassed its previous record high set on exit-poll day and reached a fresh peak," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services. All the 30 Sensex companies ended in the positive territory, with Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Infosys and Tata Steel emerging as the biggest gainers. In Asian markets, Seoul, and Shanghai settled with gains while Tokyo and Hong Kong ended lower. European markets were trading lower. US markets ended on a mixed note on Thursday. Global oil benchmark Brent crude climbed 0.04 per cent to USD 79.95 a barrel. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 6,867.72 crore on Thursday, according to exchange data. Regaining the 75,000 level, the BSE benchmark jumped 692.27 points, or 0.93 per cent, to settle at 75,074.51 on Thursday. The Nifty climbed 201.05 points, or 0.89 per cent, to 22,821.40.

Sensex, Nifty hit all-time closing high levels as RBI raises GDP growth projection

The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> announced the decision of the newly formed six-member MPC (<keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword>) today, following the conclusion of the three-day meeting, which began on October 7, 2024. Treading along expected lines, RBI rate-setting panel left the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the 10th consecutive time, in its 51st meeting today. The decision was made by a majority, with 5 out of 6 members voting for leaving the rate unchanged. This is the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review for FY25, and the first since three external members were appointed to the panel earlier this month. The tenure of the previous three members had come to an end on October 4, 2024. While the outgoing members include Ashima Goyal (emeritus professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Shashanka Bhide (honorary senior advisor, National Council of Applied Economic Research); and Jayanth R. Varma(professor, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad), the income members are Ram Singh (Director, Delhi School of Economics), Saugata Bhattacharya, an economist; and Nagesh Kumar (Director and chief executive, Institute for Studies in Industrial Development). <h2>Wait and Watch </h2>RBI also changed its policy stance to neutral, while remaining committed to growth and bringing down inflation to its target of 4%. This means that at present, the bank is not inclined to either increase or decrease the interest rates, but will take a call depending on macroeconomic conditions and prevailing factors. "Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 7.2%, with Q2 at 7%, Q3 at 7.4% and Q4 at 7.4%", he said. As for inflation, Das highlighted that headline inflation had softened significantly in July and August and even food inflation experienced a certain degree of correction during these two months. Keeping this in mind, CPI inflation for 2024-25 i.e. current year is projected at 4.5%, with Q2 at 4.1%, Q3 at 4.8% and Q4 at 4.2%. CPI for first quarter of next financial year i.e. 2025-26 is estimated at 4.3%. "It's with a lot of effort that inflation horse has been brought to the stable, i.e. closer to the target and within the tolerance span, compared to its place or heightened levels two years ago. We have to be very careful about opening the gate, as the horse may simply hold again. We must keep the horse in tight leash, so that we do not lose control", Das added. Most economists had anticipated a change in the central bank's current policy stance of 'withdrawal of accommodation'. This policy stand indicates that any interest rate cuts are presently off the table. However, given the ongoing geopolitical crisis and Fed's jumbo rate cut by 50-basis points last month, RBI may bring about a cut in interest rates, sooner than later. However, since food inflation remains high at 5.42% as of July 2024, experts had also estimated that now might not have been a good time for RBI to bring down interest rates. Moreover, PMI (purchase managers index) indices, which help in gauging the health of manufacturing and service sectors in the country, presently stand at a multi-month low, and even the core sector output is witnessing a contraction after 42 straight months. As Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research had highlighted, the current circumstances are not really conducive for RBI to opt for any affirmation action towards an easier monetary policy. "While the fear of the inflation “elephant” may have subsided with the CPI headline print well within 4.0% over the last two months and a favorable monsoon, the concerns around the stability of food inflation still linger among policy makers. The RBI may wait till December 2024 or February 2025 to make a rat cut, he continued. <h2>Housing sector rejoices</h2>From the point of view of homebuyers, the relatively affordable home loan interest rate regime will continue at a critical time for the Indian housing market - the festive season - amid rising housing prices and tapered sales. Q3 2024 saw average housing prices rise by a cumulative 23% in the top 7 cities even as average prices in these markets collectively rose to approximately Rs 8,390 per sq. ft. by Q3 2024-end, from Rs 6,800 per sq. ft. in Q3 2023. "The unchanged home loan rates are much-needed demand support in the ongoing festive quarter. We are expecting faster sales momentum in Q4 2024 when compared to the preceding quarter. This year's festive quarter may see similar demand to that seen in this period a year ago, if not higher. Over 1.27 lakh units were sold across the top 7 cities back in Q4 2023. Unchanged interest rates will play and important role in achieving and maintaining this momentum", says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

<ul><li>The Reserve Bank of India is expected to shift its <keyword id="23437409" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-stance" source="keywords">monetary stance</keyword> to 'neutral'.</li><li>As per a report by <keyword id="19895773" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nuvama" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Nuvama" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Nuvama">Nuvama</keyword>, <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> are likely to commence in December.</li><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> at 6.5% in its upcoming sitting.</li></ul>The Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) will shift its monetary stance to 'neutral' from the current 'withdrawal of accommodation' in credit policy this month, and rate cuts are likely to commence in December, according to a report by Nuvama. As per the report, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% in its upcoming sitting. However, several factors, including a slowdown in economic activity and benign <keyword id="20196112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="core-inflation" source="keywords">core inflation</keyword>, are likely to prompt the central bank to soften its stance, the report added. A weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP growth continued slowing of high-frequency indicators in the second quarter, core inflation to near record lows, and fiscal tightening could be the key reasons behind the move, the report added. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent move which indicates ease in the rates will influence RBI’s decision, the report added. The growth rate for the first quarter of financial year 2025 was below the RBI's projection at 7%. The growth rate for the same period stood at 6.7%, signalling weak economic activities. Since then, indicators such as vehicle sales, cement volumes, fuel consumption, GST collections, and rural wages have witnessed sluggishness. The government spending has also been subdued in recent months. Exports have also witnessed a sluggishness after showing recovery earlier this year. "Overall, domestic demand is slowing amid weak exports. At the same time, fiscal policy is tightening while core inflation is near a series-low. Against this evolving growth-inflation mix, a tight monetary stance may not be warranted, particularly when the Fed has also commenced easing," the report added. Going forward the report highlighted that the economy may be reverting to pre-pandemic levels of weak demand, with capital expenditure-to-GDP ratios plateauing. Further supporting its assertion, it stated that while headline inflation remains above target, core inflation has consistently declined over the past 16 months, currently ranging between 3.1% and 3.3%. This reflects weak pricing power in the economy and muted growth in consumption-driven sectors, the report added. Furthermore, it states that the RBI's fiscal policy is contractionary, with tax revenue growth declining into the single digits. This could have an effect on the government's ability to increase capital expenditure in the upcoming quarters. Given the slowing domestic demand, weak exports, and the tightening fiscal stance, the RBI's current monetary stance may no longer be appropriate, according to the report. With inputs from ANI. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/september-auto-sales-automakers-report-a-decline-mahindra-and-mahindra-overtakes-tata-motors/articleshow/113925972.cms">September Auto sales – Automakers report a decline, Mahindra and Mahindra overtakes Tata Motors</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/ola-electric-continues-to-lose-market-share-as-bajaj-auto-and-tvs-motor-gain/articleshow/113900252.cms">Ola Electric continues to lose market share as Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor gain</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/webstories/upcoming-smartphones-launching-in-india-in-october-2024/slidelist/113804125.cms">Upcoming smartphones launching in India in October 2024</a>

RBI may shift monetary stance to 'Neutral', rate cuts likely by December 2024: Nuvama

The ongoing issue involving Supreme Infrastructure India Limited (<keyword id="23294280" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SIIL" source="keywords">SIIL</keyword>) and the State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) has become a focal point in India’s financial and political landscape. It concerns SIIL’s default on significant loans and SBI’s decision to convert this debt into equity, raising concerns about the precedent it may set for future debt resolutions in India. <h2>SIIL's financial troubles</h2>SIIL, a construction and infrastructure company, was once engaged in large-scale projects such as roads and bridges across India. Over the years, however, the company faced severe financial troubles due to project delays and insufficient revenues. As SIIL’s cash flow problems worsened, it struggled to repay its loans, leading to the company’s default. The State Bank of India (SBI), being SIIL’s largest lender, found itself at the centre of this financial turmoil, as SIIL declared bankruptcy. In response, SBI decided to take an unusual step to recover its dues. <h2>SBI's debt-to-equity conversion decision</h2>In a surprising move, SBI converted its outstanding debt into equity in SIIL. This means that instead of pursuing traditional recovery methods or selling off assets, SBI has now become an equity stakeholder in SIIL, shifting from being its primary lender to part-owner. The controversial decision also involved other lenders who agreed to take a 93.45% “haircut” on the debt, which indicates that they are recovering only a fraction of the original loans extended to SIIL. <h2>Criticism and concerns</h2>The decision has drawn sharp criticism, particularly from political circles. <keyword id="19895371" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Congress" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Congress" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Congress">Congress</keyword> leader Jairam Ramesh, through a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), criticised SBI’s approach and raised several concerns. He highlighted that SBI’s decision to become an equity stakeholder in a company that declared bankruptcy could set a "dangerous precedent in India’s <keyword id="20575563" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="corporate-debt" source="keywords">corporate debt</keyword> landscape". "This arrangement creates a dangerous precedent in India's corporate debt landscape — it encourages other defaulting companies to seek similar deals, where they can retain control and value even after significant defaults," Ramesh noted. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="112987756" title="Congress alleges SEBI Chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch of office for profit" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>His concerns extend to how this move might affect the <keyword id="20158086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Insolvency-and-Bankruptcy-Code" source="keywords">Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code</keyword> (IBC) and India’s overall framework for handling distressed companies. By converting <keyword id="22921090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="debt-to-equity" source="keywords">debt to equity</keyword>, SBI could be seen as aligning itself with the interests of the defaulting borrower (SIIL) rather than prioritising the recovery of public funds, which are at stake in cases involving <keyword id="19959986" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="public-sector-banks" source="keywords">public sector banks</keyword> like SBI. “The SBI appears to be aligning itself with the interests of the defaulting borrower (SIIL) rather than prioritising the recovery of public funds,” Ramesh further argued. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to step in and examine SBI's decision-making process in this matter." Given the unusual nature of this debt restructuring and the potential risks it introduces, Congress is urging the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to step in and examine SBI’s decision-making process. Ramesh emphasised the need for regulatory scrutiny to ensure that public sector banks maintain discipline in their approach to resolving bad loans. Congress' position is that SBI’s move could create a moral hazard within India’s <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>, encouraging more companies to default on their loans with the hope of retaining control through similar debt-to-equity swaps. Ramesh pointed out that the entire situation raises questions about how distressed assets should be managed by public sector banks, and whether SBI’s actions are truly in the best interests of the public. <div type="Article" hostid="261" msid="113620397" title="SEBI report reveals the ugly truth of F&amp;amp;O trading in India – 93% of retail traders incurred losses" mstype="2" mssubtype="0"></div>"There is a pressing need to ensure that public sector banks maintain strict discipline in their approach to debt resolution and avoid creating moral hazards in the financial system." <h2>Broader implications</h2>This situation shines a light on broader challenges in India’s banking and insolvency frameworks. When public sector banks like SBI take significant financial losses (haircuts) and switch from creditors to shareholders, it risks undermining confidence in the banking sector’s ability to handle bad loans effectively. Moreover, it raises questions about the long-term sustainability of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) if companies that default can avoid paying back substantial portions of their debt and still retain operational control. (With inputs from PTI)

Congress criticises SBI's decision to convert SIIL debt into equity, urges RBI intervention

New Delhi: The ongoing volatility in the prices of key food items such as tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP) and pulses continues to pose significant challenges for the <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy-committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC) of the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>), highlights a report by <keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>. "Current volatility in prices of TOP and pulses continues to challenge the MPC, keeping the headline above target at 5.1 per cent in June 2024," said the report. The report highlighted that this instability in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> has kept the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> above the targeted level, reaching 5.1 per cent in June 2024. While the inflationary pressures remain a concern, the report stated that there is hope on the horizon due to the currently above-normal <keyword id="19968257" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monsoon" source="keywords">monsoon</keyword> and increased sowing activity, which are further supported by the potential onset of a La Nina event later in the year. "The currently above-normal monsoon and sowing, backed up by a potential La Nina event later, promise reprieve in later quarters," said the report. Importantly, the report added that it is now expected that the CPI will remain above the RBI's medium-term target of 4 per cent in all quarters up until the first quarter of FY26. This persistent overshoot highlights the ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. "Notably, now the CPI is expected to be above RBI's target of 4 per cent in all quarters till Q1FY26," the report added. However, the report noted that the Monetary Policy Committee expects a moderation in inflation during the fourth quarter, which is anticipated to help keep the overall CPI projection for FY24 unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The SBI report also believes that the volatility in food prices, driven by uneven spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rains, presents an upside risk to the current inflation projections. As a result, SBI maintains its CPI estimate for FY25 at 4.7 per cent year-on-year. In the latest MPC meeting on Wednesday, RBI Governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> said inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. Das said, "Global food prices showed signs of easing in the month of July after registering an increase since March 2024." A degree of relief in food inflation is expected from the pickup in southwest monsoon and healthy progress in Kharif sowing. Buffer stocks of cereals continue to be above the norms, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Das added, "Assuming a normal monsoon and taking into account the 4.9 per cent inflation print, Q1 CPI inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent, with q2 at 4.4 per cent, Q3 at 4.7 per cent and Q4 at 4.3 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent."

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

<keyword id="19951168" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor-Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">RBI governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> announced no change in prevailing interest rates and maintained the withdrawal of accommodation stance in the ongoing <keyword id="20456086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Review" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Review</keyword> (MPC) meeting, which was held between August 6th and August 8th, 2024. This was the 50th MPC meeting since its inception. <h2>What is MPC meet? </h2>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) held its third <keyword id="22709762" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bi-monthly-MPC-meet" source="keywords">bi-monthly MPC meet</keyword>, which began on August 6th, 2024 and concluded today. Experts were widely of the view that there would be no significant changes in the <keyword id="22709761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="benchmark-repo-rate" source="keywords">benchmark repo rate</keyword> during this MPC meet, and that the MPC would keep it unchanged at 6.5%. This is the ninth time the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> has been left unchanged, since it was last increased from 6.25% to 6.5% on 8th February 2023. MPC includes 6 members, three from RBI, and three external experts. Together, they are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate, or repo rate. This is the rate at which the central bank of the country i.e. RBI lends to other banks of the country. If it is increased, the same translates into higher borrowing costs for consumers as well. <h2>What was the decision? </h2>MPC decided, by a majority of 4:2 members, that the repo rate will be left unchanged at 6.5%. This was done to align both market expectations and monetary policies. The MPC has decided to focus on maintaining price stability to ensure growth, and that inflation progressively aligns with the target. Notably, the RBIs inflation target is around 4%, with a tolerance band of about 2%. This target was last met in January 2021, when inflation stood at 4.06%. Per the governor, "PMI services stood strong at 60.3 in July, and have been above 60 for seven constitutive months, indicating robust expansion of services. On the demand side, household consumption is supporting a turnaround in rural demand and steady discretionary spending in urban areas is also being observed". As Das noted, sustained buoyancy in services activity is expected to support urban consumption. Moreover, government's thrust on capex, and signs of pickup in private investment would drive investment activity in the current year. Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 has been projected at 7.2% . This is distributed as 7% in Q1, 7.1% in Q2, 7.2% in Q3 and 7.3% in Q4. Explaining the moderation of growth projections for the first quarter of the current FY, as compared to information given during previous MPC in June, Das explained that this was primarily due to updated information on certain high frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated results. These include corporate profitability, central government expenditure and core industries output, among others. As for CPI inflation for current FY, it has been pegged at 4.5%. Accordingly, Q2 projections stand at 4.4%, Q3 at 4.7% and Q4 at 4.3%. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year i.e. Q1FY26 is projected at 4.4%. <h2>Is high food inflation a key concern? </h2>In June 2024, food inflation surged, pushing overall CPI (consumer price index) inflation to 5.1% during the month, from 4.8% in May. It may be noted that food inflation forms a significant part of CPI. That is why, even with a supportive base effect from the previous year, food inflation jumped to 9.4%, driven mostly by high vegetable prices, which have remained in double digits for eight months. "The inflation trajectory has been moderating, and we do expect it to moderate, but the pace of modulation has been uneven and slow. So, we need to be watchful to ensure that we move closer to target, and CPI inflation gets aligned to the target on a durable basis", continued Das. <h2>Some segments of personal loans are excessively leveraged, notes Das </h2> Going ahead, there will be a public repository of digital lending apps deployed by the regulator. This comes amidst a spike in number of unauthorised lending apps, and certain segments of personal loans witnessing excess leverage through retail loans, most of which are for consumption purposes, the governor noted. Additionally, the current UPI transaction limit for tax payments is being enhanced from Rs 1,00,000 to Rs 5,00,000 per transaction. Also, the clearance cycle is also being shortened and made almost continuous, with cheques being cleared on the same day, within just a few hours of being presented, benefiting all stakeholders. <h2>What are the experts saying? </h2>Says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group, "The RBI's decision to keep repo rates unchanged at 6.5% for ninth consecutive time aligns well with yesterday's announcement on indexation benefits. It sets a positive tone for the housing industry. Maintaining interest rates offers consistency in borrowing costs, which will prompt more aspiring homebuyers to consider taking the plunge - and thus drive demand in the housing market. With interest rates staying steady, EMIs will remain manageable for current and potential homeowners, potentially leading to increased home sales - particularly in the price-sensitive affordable segment". <h2>When is the next MPC scheduled?</h2>The upcoming RBI MPC meets are scheduled to take place between October 7th and 9th, December 4th an 6th, 2024, and February 5th and 7th, 2025.

You Searched For "RBI projection" and got 12 results

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

PTI

Curious to know what the Reserve Bank does? Star India will soon produce a web series narrating the RBI's 90-year journey

BI India Bureau

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das projects 7.2% GDP growth for 2024-25, reports eased inflation to 5.1% in June

ANI

Gold loan market projected to double in 5 years to Rs 14.19 lakh crore, says PwC India's report

PTI

Retail inflation expected to breach 6% mark in October, says UBI Report

BI India Bureau

With strong growth momentum in India, Asian earnings growth to outpace US and Europe this year: Report

ANI

Sensex, Nifty hit all-time closing high levels as RBI raises GDP growth projection

PTI

RBIs MPC meet concludes today: Repo rate left unchanged at 6.5%

Ira Alok Puranik

RBI may shift monetary stance to 'Neutral', rate cuts likely by December 2024: Nuvama

BI India Bureau

Congress criticises SBI's decision to convert SIIL debt into equity, urges RBI intervention

BI India Bureau

High food prices raise concerns but improved monsoon offers hope for RBI: SBI report

ANI

RBI MPC Meet: Repo rates unchanged at 6.5%, inflation moderating, albeit slowly

Ira Alok Puranik

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