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Amid questions on the depleting <keyword id="20776807" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="loan-to-deposit-ratio" source="keywords">loan-to-deposit ratio</keyword> in <keyword id="19895091" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-banks" source="keywords">Indian banks</keyword>, a recent report by <keyword id="19896146" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Motilal-Oswal" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Motilal Oswal" meta.hostid="269" meta.entityid="Motilal Oswal">Motilal Oswal</keyword> suggests that the loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio is likely to subside on its own in the coming months. The debate on loan-to-deposit ratio (LD), particularly concerning sluggish <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> and potential risks to <keyword id="20089808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stability" source="keywords">financial stability</keyword> is raised by even the finance minister and the <keyword id="20151998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor" source="keywords">RBI governor</keyword>. However, the report notes that on closer examination, the situation may not be as alarming as it seems. As of 9th August, 2024 the Indian <keyword id="19964544" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banking-sector" source="keywords">banking sector</keyword>'s loan-to-deposit (LD) ratio stood at 77.2 %, which is slightly below its recent peak of 78.2 % on 22nd March 2024, and its all-time high of 78.8 % in September 2013. The report stated that typically a rising LD ratio is indicative of a tightness in the banking sector, potentially indicating overheating. A lower LD indicates that the bank is aggressive in its credit disbursement practises, which could be risky. It highlighted that an analysis of the sector's transactions with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) through the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), along with recent trends in the weighted average call rate (WACR), suggests that the current rise in the LD ratio does not indicate tightness, which is why there is no immediate cause of concern. In fact, the report added that the concern over weak deposit growth may be overstated. Historical data show that bank deposits grew at an average rate of 9.5 % during the pre-COVID period (January 2015 to February 2020) and 10.4 % in the post-COVID period (March 2020 to August 2024). Earlier, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also urged state-run banks to enhance deposit mobilization through attractive offers and focusing on Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Loan-to-deposit ratio pegs the total deposits received by the bank against the loans it has offered. It helps in understanding how liquid the bank is. The loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is a financial metric that compares a bank's total loans to its total deposits. It's used to assess a bank's liquidity and credit risk, and to inform lending and deposit-taking decisions The report said while the exact measures are unclear, the deposit growth could potentially be increased by making other asset classes less attractive through taxation or interest rates, or by boosting fiscal spending to increase net credit to the government. In its forecast, the report noted that private banks will witness a moderation in their <keyword id="19998083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="credit-growth" source="keywords">credit growth</keyword>, while public sector banks will maintain a healthy credit growth rate. "Our analysis suggests that deposit growth could be raised by either making other asset classes unattractive (through taxation and/or interest rate) or increasing the growth in net credit to the government by pushing fiscal spending higher" the report added. Alternatively, policymakers might consider curtailing loan growth to lower the LD ratio. However, this could slow deposit growth, particularly if corporate credit growth remains weak. Encouraging savers to shift investments from other assets to bank deposits could also be an option, but this carries risks of overreach and potential damage to economic confidence. Das had also flagged the excessive growth, or froth developing in the personal loan space. Notably, while credit growth in unsecured personal loans like credit cards continues to decline, it remains elevated at 23.3% as of June 2024. However, this is a significant reduction from 34.2% witnessed in November 2023. As fiscal spending increases, bank credit to the government is likely to grow, which should elevate deposits and broad money supply. The report said "However, the extent of foreign capital inflows and the RBI's policy for managing these inflows remain uncertain". Last month, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had also addressed this issue in the 50th meeting of MPC (Monetary Policy Committee). Per him, deposit mobilisation has been lagging credit growth for some time now. This may potentially expose the system to structural liquidity issues. "While there could be a debate regarding ‘deposits funding loans’ vis-à-vis ‘loans funding deposits’, the current regulatory concern stems from the fact that there could be structural changes happening which banks need to recognise and, accordingly, devise their strategies. Households and consumers who traditionally leaned on banks for parking or investing their savings are increasingly turning to capital markets and other financial intermediaries", Das said. Per him, while bank deposits continue to remain dominant as a percentage of financial assets owned by households, their share has been declining consistently, since households are now increasingly allocating their savings to mutual funds, insurance funds, pension funds and other avenues.

Loan-to-deposit ratio will subside on its own in coming months, notes Motilal Oswal report

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="19998537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-exchange-reserves" source="keywords">foreign exchange reserves</keyword> have surged to a record high, reaching a new peak of $ 666.85 billion, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>). The data highlights an increase of $9.69 billion in just one week, as of 12 July, surpassing the previous high of $657.2 billion. The reserves have been rising intermittently for some time now. The RBI data reveals that India's <keyword id="20972687" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-currency-assets" source="keywords">foreign currency assets</keyword> (FCA), the largest component of <keyword id="20344433" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="forex-reserves" source="keywords">forex reserves</keyword>, rose by $8.3 billion to $585.47 billion. Additionally, <keyword id="19895579" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold" source="keywords">gold</keyword> reserves increased by $1.2 billion, reaching $58.66 billion. According to a recent RBI report, India's foreign exchange reserves are now sufficient to cover over 11 months of projected imports. In the calendar year 2023, the RBI added approximately $58 billion to its foreign exchange reserves. In contrast, in 2022, India's forex reserves declined by a cumulative $71 billion. Forex reserves, or foreign exchange reserves (FX reserves), are assets held by a nation's central bank or monetary authority, typically in reserve currencies such as the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword>, and to a lesser extent, the euro, Japanese yen, and pound sterling. The country's foreign exchange reserves last reached an all-time high in October 2021. Much of the subsequent decline can be attributed to the increased cost of imported goods in 2022. Additionally, the relative fall in forex reserves has been linked to the RBI's market interventions, to manage the uneven depreciation of the rupee against a surging US dollar. The RBI frequently intervenes in the market through liquidity management, including the sale of dollars, to prevent steep depreciation of the rupee. The RBI closely monitors the foreign exchange markets and intervenes only to maintain orderly market conditions by containing excessive volatility in the exchange rate, without reference to any pre-determined target level or band.

India's forex reserves hit record $666.85 billion, driven by surging gold and foreign currency assets

<keyword id="19951168" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-governor-Shaktikanta-Das" source="keywords">RBI governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> announced no change in prevailing interest rates and maintained the withdrawal of accommodation stance in the ongoing <keyword id="20456086" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Review" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Review</keyword> (MPC) meeting, which was held between August 6th and August 8th, 2024. This was the 50th MPC meeting since its inception. <h2>What is MPC meet? </h2>The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) held its third <keyword id="22709762" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bi-monthly-MPC-meet" source="keywords">bi-monthly MPC meet</keyword>, which began on August 6th, 2024 and concluded today. Experts were widely of the view that there would be no significant changes in the <keyword id="22709761" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="benchmark-repo-rate" source="keywords">benchmark repo rate</keyword> during this MPC meet, and that the MPC would keep it unchanged at 6.5%. This is the ninth time the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> has been left unchanged, since it was last increased from 6.25% to 6.5% on 8th February 2023. MPC includes 6 members, three from RBI, and three external experts. Together, they are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate, or repo rate. This is the rate at which the central bank of the country i.e. RBI lends to other banks of the country. If it is increased, the same translates into higher borrowing costs for consumers as well. <h2>What was the decision? </h2>MPC decided, by a majority of 4:2 members, that the repo rate will be left unchanged at 6.5%. This was done to align both market expectations and monetary policies. The MPC has decided to focus on maintaining price stability to ensure growth, and that inflation progressively aligns with the target. Notably, the RBIs inflation target is around 4%, with a tolerance band of about 2%. This target was last met in January 2021, when inflation stood at 4.06%. Per the governor, "PMI services stood strong at 60.3 in July, and have been above 60 for seven constitutive months, indicating robust expansion of services. On the demand side, household consumption is supporting a turnaround in rural demand and steady discretionary spending in urban areas is also being observed". As Das noted, sustained buoyancy in services activity is expected to support urban consumption. Moreover, government's thrust on capex, and signs of pickup in private investment would drive investment activity in the current year. Taking all these factors into consideration, the real GDP growth for 2024-25 has been projected at 7.2% . This is distributed as 7% in Q1, 7.1% in Q2, 7.2% in Q3 and 7.3% in Q4. Explaining the moderation of growth projections for the first quarter of the current FY, as compared to information given during previous MPC in June, Das explained that this was primarily due to updated information on certain high frequency indicators which show lower than anticipated results. These include corporate profitability, central government expenditure and core industries output, among others. As for CPI inflation for current FY, it has been pegged at 4.5%. Accordingly, Q2 projections stand at 4.4%, Q3 at 4.7% and Q4 at 4.3%. CPI inflation for the first quarter of next financial year i.e. Q1FY26 is projected at 4.4%. <h2>Is high food inflation a key concern? </h2>In June 2024, food inflation surged, pushing overall CPI (consumer price index) inflation to 5.1% during the month, from 4.8% in May. It may be noted that food inflation forms a significant part of CPI. That is why, even with a supportive base effect from the previous year, food inflation jumped to 9.4%, driven mostly by high vegetable prices, which have remained in double digits for eight months. "The inflation trajectory has been moderating, and we do expect it to moderate, but the pace of modulation has been uneven and slow. So, we need to be watchful to ensure that we move closer to target, and CPI inflation gets aligned to the target on a durable basis", continued Das. <h2>Some segments of personal loans are excessively leveraged, notes Das </h2> Going ahead, there will be a public repository of digital lending apps deployed by the regulator. This comes amidst a spike in number of unauthorised lending apps, and certain segments of personal loans witnessing excess leverage through retail loans, most of which are for consumption purposes, the governor noted. Additionally, the current UPI transaction limit for tax payments is being enhanced from Rs 1,00,000 to Rs 5,00,000 per transaction. Also, the clearance cycle is also being shortened and made almost continuous, with cheques being cleared on the same day, within just a few hours of being presented, benefiting all stakeholders. <h2>What are the experts saying? </h2>Says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group, "The RBI's decision to keep repo rates unchanged at 6.5% for ninth consecutive time aligns well with yesterday's announcement on indexation benefits. It sets a positive tone for the housing industry. Maintaining interest rates offers consistency in borrowing costs, which will prompt more aspiring homebuyers to consider taking the plunge - and thus drive demand in the housing market. With interest rates staying steady, EMIs will remain manageable for current and potential homeowners, potentially leading to increased home sales - particularly in the price-sensitive affordable segment". <h2>When is the next MPC scheduled?</h2>The upcoming RBI MPC meets are scheduled to take place between October 7th and 9th, December 4th an 6th, 2024, and February 5th and 7th, 2025.

RBI MPC Meet: Repo rates unchanged at 6.5%, inflation moderating, albeit slowly

New Delhi: While the <keyword id="20199673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="moderation" source="keywords">moderation</keyword> in <keyword id="20468215" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CPI" source="keywords">CPI</keyword> <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> is a welcome development, experts caution that the road ahead could be bumpy. The sequential momentum in <keyword id="19960157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-prices" source="keywords">food prices</keyword> remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent month-on-month increase in prices, higher than the average sequential growth, indicating that inflationary pressures may persist. The uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential for excess rainfall in the coming months pose additional risks to food prices. RajSinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, noted, "Despite the moderation in the inflation of the food and beverage basket when compared to last year, the sequential momentum remains strong, with a 2.5 per cent M-o-M increase in prices, higher than an average sequential grow." Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, highlighted the impact of the high-base effect, stating, While the high-base effect -- along with sequential monthly movements -- was supportive of food inflation, it had an adverse bearing on core inflation. The big worry now is food prices continue to be elevated with the on-month rise slightly higher than usual for July. "The good part is monsoon and sowing have been progressing well and the expectation is that the arrival of fresh supplies in the market should over the next few months curb the food price rise. Overall, though, we expect inflation to ease and average 4.5 per cent this fiscal mostly due to softer food prices. This should allow the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> to begin cutting earliest by October", Joshi added. Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director of Ladderup Wealth Management, expressed optimism regarding the CPI data, stating, "This decline is primarily attributed to a reduction in the Consumer Food Price Index, which fell from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July. This improvement should offer reassurance to the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI), which has indicated that <keyword id="19920341" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rate-cuts" source="keywords">rate cuts</keyword> will occur only when inflation sustainably aligns with its 4 per cent target. He added, "Positive expectations for the monsoon and adequate buffer stocks support the continued downward trend of CPI. However, any substantial rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing geopolitical crisis could adversely affect inflation and the broader economy." Sanjeev Agrawal, President of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also commended the decline in CPI inflation, stating, "It is highly appreciable that the CPI inflation has exhibited a decline in the year-on-year inflation rate at 3.5 per cent for the month of July 2024 from 5.08 per cent in June 2024." He added, "The food and beverages inflation eased sharply from 8.4 per cent in June 2024 to 5.06 per cent in July 2024 and fuel and light inflation from -3.7 per cent in June 2024 to -5.4 per cent in July 2024, are the main drivers of the softening inflation trajectory." India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased significantly to 3.54 per cent in July 2024, marking its lowest level in nearly five years and a sharp drop from 5.08 per cent in June. This decline, which brought inflation below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4 per cent for the first time since 2019, has been largely attributed to a favourable base effect and a dramatic reduction in <keyword id="20621131" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetable-prices" source="keywords">vegetable prices</keyword>. The primary driver behind this sharp moderation was the steep fall in vegetable inflation, which plummeted from 29.3 per cent in June to 6.8 per cent in July. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) also saw a significant reduction, falling from 9.36 per cent in June to 5.42 per cent in July, contributing to the overall easing of CPI inflation. (ANI)

Experts welcome moderation of inflation in July, by warns of continued inflationary pressure ahead

The <keyword id="19922074" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank">Reserve Bank</keyword> is expected to hold its key rates at the forthcoming <keyword id="22706079" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="policy-review" source="keywords">policy review</keyword>, but may sound more confident about reaching its 4% inflation objective, a foreign brokerage said on Wednesday. The rate-setting panel may prefer to stick to the 'withdrawal of accommodation' stance of the <keyword id="20104157" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policy" source="keywords">monetary policy</keyword>, HSBC said in the report on the eve of the <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MPC" source="keywords">MPC</keyword>'s decision. "While it's a close call, we also think the policy stance will remain unchanged, even as the RBI sounds more confident than before about getting to its 4% <keyword id="20661141" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-target" source="keywords">inflation target</keyword>," it said, listing out the aspects it will watch out for in the document or the resolution. These include any softness in tone around increased confidence of getting to 4% inflation durably, or a change in growth or inflation forecasts, and, further commentary around the use of OMO (open market operations) sales to take out excess liquidity. In the background of another member dissenting at the last policy review, the brokerage said the number of MPC members calling for a rate cut or change in stance will also be watched keenly. Apart from this, it said any more colour on the plans to change regulatory requirements on the <keyword id="20479869" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="liquidity-coverage-ratio" source="keywords">liquidity coverage ratio</keyword>, which is reported to have a bearing on banks' profitability, will also be watched, it said. On the stance questions, there are several points in support of softening from the current "hawkish" posturing, the brokerage said, adding that there are an equal number of aspects against such a move as well. Factors such as global turmoil, improving rains, soft core inflation, weaker credit growth and fiscal consolidation support a softening of the stance, while on the other side, there are competing ones like long wait for a durable fall in food inflation, loose financial conditions, OMO sales and growth being strong on the other side, it said.

RBI to hold rates, may sound more confident of reaching inflation target, says report

New Delhi [<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>], May 19 (ANI): India's <keyword id="19998537" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-exchange-reserves" source="keywords">foreign exchange reserves</keyword> rose for the second straight week, by <keyword id="19944038" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="USD" source="keywords">USD</keyword> 2.561 billion to USD 644.151 billion in the week that ended on May 10, according to data shared by the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>). Preceding these two weeks, the forex kitty had seen three consecutive weeks of decline. The country's foreign exchange reserves had hit an all-time high of USD 648.562 billion recently. According to the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose by USD 1.488 billion to USD 565.648 billion. <keyword id="20344434" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-reserves" source="keywords">Gold reserves</keyword> during the week rose by USD 1.072 billion to USD 55.952 billion. India's foreign exchange reserves, which had reached an all-time high are sufficient to cover 11 months of projected <keyword id="19933566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="imports" source="keywords">imports</keyword>, according to the Monthly Economic Review report of the Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance, released lately. In the calendar year 2023, the RBI added about USD 58 billion to its foreign exchange kitty. In 2022, India's forex kitty slumped by USD 71 billion cumulatively. Foreign exchange reserves have risen about USD 23 billion, on a cumulative basis, in 2024 so far. Forex reserves, or foreign exchange reserves (FX reserves), are assets that are held by a nation's central bank or monetary authority. It is generally held in reserve currencies, usually the US Dollar and, to a lesser degree, the Euro, Japanese Yen, and Pound Sterling. The country's foreign exchange reserves last touched their all-time high in October 2021. Much of the decline after that can be attributed to a rise in the cost of imported goods in 2022. Also, the relative fall in forex reserves could be linked to the RBI's intervention, from time to time, in the market to defend the uneven depreciation in the rupee against a surging US dollar. Typically, the RBI, from time to time, intervenes in the market through liquidity management, including through the sale of dollars, to prevent a steep depreciation in the rupee. The RBI closely monitors the foreign exchange markets and intervenes only to maintain orderly market conditions by containing excessive volatility in the exchange rate, without reference to any pre-determined target level or band.

India's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 2.6 billion in the week ending May 10: RBI

Mumbai, <keyword id="7340328" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-governor-shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das</keyword> on Monday said the central bank has noticed "excessive dominance" by one or two board members even in "big commercial banks" and asked the lenders to desist from such practices. Board discussions have to be free, fair and democratic, Das said, addressing directors of <keyword id="117575" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="urban-cooperative-banks" source="Orion">Urban Cooperative Banks</keyword> (UCBs) at a meeting organised by the <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) here. "There should not be an over-dominance or excessive dominance by one or two members of the board, or the chairman or the vice-chairman. We have seen this even in big commercial banks... wherever we have seen this, we have told the bank that this is not the way," he said. He said all directors need to be given a chance to speak and a particular director's say should not be the final one on a matter. The governor, who made the point while illustrating the importance of a well-functioning board, however, did not elaborate further. In the past, the Indian banking system has witnessed problems at the promoter-led YES Bank, which had to be bailed out in an SBI-led initiative, which was supported by the RBI and the government. YES Bank Co-Founder Rana Kapoor, who was also its Chief Executive and Managing Director, was arrested in connection with the irregularities at the bank. Earlier this month, Uday Kotak, the Chief Executive and Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra Bank, resigned from his post and will continue as a non-executive board member. Das said directors in UCBs -- who are elected to the post -- need to have expertise in various aspects of banking, such as risk management, information technology, etc. He urged directors to go through agenda notes, which are prepared in advance, and ask relevant questions. While a managing director should have the freedom to act as per what she or he feels right, it is also important for directors to get their doubts clarified, Das added.

RBI found excessive dominance by 1-2 board members even in big commercial banks: Das

<div type="image" title="SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal" agency="ANI" msid="112275933" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal &amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div>The Consumer Price <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> in India is expected to remain around 5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25 except for September and October month, according to a research report by <keyword id="13222" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sbi" source="Orion">SBI</keyword>. The report also noted that the inflation outlook in India remains a critical focus for the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI). Recent data indicates that the <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation rose to 5.08 per cent in June 2024, driven primarily by higher food and beverage prices. "CPI inflation is expected to remain below or close to 5.0 per cent in the remaining months, except for Sep'24 and Oct'24" said the report. The report also added that the monsoon season plays an important role in shaping food prices, and while the current monsoon has shown a satisfactory surplus, excess rainfall could lead to crop losses, adversely affecting food inflation. The RBI's ability to manage inflation expectations is crucial, especially as it navigates the delicate balance between supporting <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and maintaining <keyword id="19960158" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="price-stability" source="keywords">price stability</keyword>. "With monsoon progressing satisfactorily with 2 per cent surplus till date and progress of area coverage under Kharif crops showing 2.9 per cent yoy, we expect inflation to remain within RBI target in FY25. However, with La Nina getting precedence, excess rainfalls could result in crop loss and thus a negative impact on food prices" the report added. In response to the evolving economic landscape, the report mentioned that the RBI is likely to continue its stance of withdrawing accommodation. This approach aims to address inflationary pressures while ensuring that the economy remains on a growth trajectory. However, the central bank faces challenges in policy transmission, as deposit rates have shown downward rigidity despite a declining weighted average lending rate (WALR). This situation complicates the RBI's efforts to implement effective monetary policy. "Even though the Banks are chasing deposits to fund the incremental credit growth, RBI recent report suggests, the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh rupee loan decreased by 11 bps from the beginning of the year (i.e. from 9.43 in January'24 to 9.32 in June'24)" the report noted. Looking ahead, the RBI's decisions will be influenced by both domestic and global economic conditions. The potential for a recession in the US and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation dynamics in India. As such, the RBI's monetary policy will need to remain flexible and responsive to these external factors while striving to achieve its inflation targets and support sustainable economic growth. (ANI)

SBI report says inflation will remain around 5 per cent this fiscal

<ul><li><keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> has said that 25% of the amount of I-CRR maintained by banks will be released on Saturday and another 25% on September 23. </li><li>Releasing money in tranches helps to smoothen out liquidity and avoid sudden gush of funds, says Madan Fadnavis of Bank of Baroda.</li><li></li></ul> The Reserve Bank on Friday decided to discontinue the <keyword id="18349664" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="incremental-cash-reserve-ratio" source="Orion">Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio</keyword> (I-CRR), which was put in place to absorb surplus liquidity following the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 currency notes, in a phased manner beginning Saturday. On August 10, the RBI mandated banks to maintain an incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) of 10% on the increase in their net demand and time liabilities (<keyword id="312584" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NDTL" source="Orion">NDTL</keyword>) between May 19, 2023 and July 28, 2023. The measure was intended to absorb the surplus liquidity generated by various factors, including the return of Rs 2,000 notes to the banking system. "On a review, it has been decided to discontinue the I-CRR in a phased manner," the central bank said in a statement. There is surplus liquidity in system of around Rs 75,000 cr of late, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. He adds, "Releasing money in tranches helps to smoothen out liquidity and avoid sudden gush of funds." Based on an assessment of current and evolving liquidity conditions, it has been decided that the amounts impounded under the I-CRR would be released in stages so that system liquidity is not subjected to sudden shocks and money markets function in an orderly manner, it added. The RBI said 25% of the amount of I-CRR maintained by banks will be released on Saturday and another 25% on September 23. The rest will be released on October 7. While announcing the I-CRR, RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> had indicated that the provision was a temporary measure for managing the liquidity overhang. The RBI had announced that the I-CRR would be reviewed on September 8, 2023, or earlier with a view to returning the impounded funds to the banking system ahead of the festival season. Following the withdrawal of the Rs 2,000 notes, the liquidity with the banks had surged significantly, the I-CRR was aimed to absorb the excess cash. As much as 93% of Rs 2000 currency notes that were in circulation on May 19 -- the day when the currency was withdrawn from circulation -- have been returned to banks. The advance tax payments are due next week which will put pressure on liquidity further. The total value of Rs 2000 banknotes received back from circulation is Rs 3.32 lakh crore up to August 31, 2023. Fadnavis adds, "The question is whether this will be adequate next week when there are tax outflow. This is because the amount coming in of around Rs 25-27,000 cr will cover the outflow through the V3R today and will not leave much surplus." (With text inputs from PTI)

RBI decides to withdraw incremental CRR in phased manner and release it by Oct 7

New Delhi, Indian-Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa-backed <keyword id="20847043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fairfax-india" source="keywords">Fairfax India</keyword> on Wednesday announced its commitment to provide up to USD 200 million (about Rs 1,650 crore) liquidity support to IIFL Finance after the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> barred the non-bank lender to disburse gold loans. The RBI's embargo has raised liquidity concerns among the company's investors and lenders, Fairfax India Holdings Corporation said in a statement. In response to these concerns, Fairfax India has agreed to extend up to USD 200 million of liquidity support on terms to be mutually agreed and subject to applicable laws, including regulatory approvals (if any), it added. "We have been long-term investors in the IIFL group of companies and have full trust and confidence in the company's strong management team led by Nirmal Jain and R Venkataraman. We are confident that Nirmal and Venkat will take corrective actions to meet and exceed RBI's compliance standards," said Fairfax India chairman <keyword id="20146567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prem-watsa" source="keywords">Prem Watsa</keyword>. Commenting on the development, IIFL Finance Managing Director Nirmal Jain said at this crucial juncture, Fairfax India's and Prem's generous offer to provide liquidity support is very timely and motivating. "We are committed to complying fully with RBI's directives and growing the business under the regulator's guidance on the strong foundation of compliance, risk management, and fair practices," Jain said. Earlier this week, the <keyword id="19922074" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank" source="keywords">Reserve Bank</keyword> barred <keyword id="20849308" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="iifl-finance-ltd" source="keywords">IIFL Finance Ltd</keyword> from disbursing gold loans, with immediate effect following multiple supervisory concerns, including serious deviations in assaying and certifying the purity of the yellow metal. IIFL Finance offers a range of loans and mortgages. The latest directions from the RBI pertain to only the gold loan business. The RBI in a statement had said certain material supervisory concerns were observed in the gold loan portfolio of the company. The concerns include serious deviations in assaying and certifying purity and net weight of the gold at the time of sanction of loans and at the time of auction upon default; breaches in loan-to-value ratio; significant disbursal and collection of the loan amount in cash far in excess of the statutory limit; non-adherence to the standard auction process; and lack of transparency in charges being levied to customer accounts.

Prem Watsa-backed Fairfax India commits up to $200 mn to IIFL Finance

The <keyword id="6354335" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="Orion">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>) can argue its case strongly with the Central government as to why the <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> was not controlled at 4 per cent, said experts. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet on November 3 to discuss what it would tell the Centre as to why it was not able to restrain the inflation. The RBI may also sound out the Central government as to the course of inflation as well as the reasons as to why it may be at the elevated levels. In <keyword id="3658" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="Orion">India</keyword>, the retail inflation rose to 7.41 per cent in September. Experts were of the view that a combination of global and local (glocal) factors -- geopolitical developments, crop production, reduction in crude oil production and the resulting price increase and depreciating rupee -- are expected to heat up the prices. The RBI on its part is trying to contain the inflation by increasing the repo rate -- the rate at which it lends to the banks. The central bank has increased the repo rate by 190 basis points in recent times and the last one was by 50 basis points last month. "There is a strong case for the RBI arguing that (a) inflation has primarily been caused by supply side shocks with global commodity prices having an impact (b) rupee depreciation has added to imported inflation (c) the RBI on its part was proactive in raising rates even between two policies as it did in May when it saw things were going out of hand post Ukraine war and (d) there have been some measures like increase in goods and services tax (GST) which has added to inflation that was happening in parallel," Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, told IANS. "Therefore, there is an explanation as to why inflation was high. But the central bank has been acting to bring it down through the instruments it has like repo and CRR (cash reserve ratio). It has succeeded in lowering surplus liquidity too which can be proved," Sabnavis added. "The RBI can say that inflation is due to supply side constraints a nd excess liquidity," says K. Ramasubramanian, retired General Manager, RBI, and a forex advisor. "In addition, there was a huge sale of forex almost Rs 3 lakh crore to maintain the exchange rate. Inflation which was more than the target continuously for three quarters is estimated to come around 6 per cent by three more quarters. Interest rates (repo rate) have been increased almost 1.9 per cent. As such the MPC may only be constrained to say that the present steps taken need some more time for having a positive impact to reduce inflation. This is subject to the time inconsistency impact," he added. The RBI has scheduled the November 3 meeting of MPC under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act. As per the said Section, when the RBI fails to meet the inflation target, it shall send a report to the central government listing: (a) the reasons for failure to achieve the inflation target; (b) remedial actions proposed to be taken by it; and (c) an estimate of the time-period within which the inflation target shall be achieved pursuant to timely implementation of proposed remedial actions. As per the RBI Act the MPC shall determine the Policy Rate required to achieve the inflation target. Further as per the RBI Act, the central bank shall organise at least four meetings of the MPC in a year. Announcing the credit policy RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "There are also upside risks to food prices. Cereal price pressure is spreading from wheat to rice due to the likely lower kharif paddy production. "The lower sowing for kharif pulses could also cause some pressures. The delayed withdrawal of monsoon and intense rain spells in various regions have already started to impact vegetable prices, especially tomatoes. These risks to food inflation could have an adverse impact on inflation expectations." According to the RBI Governor, the Indian basket crude oil price was around $104 per barrel in H1:2022-23 and expected to be around $100 per barrel in H2: 2022-23. "Taking into account these factors, the inflation projection is retained at 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q2 at 7.1 per cent; Q3 at 6.5 per cent; and Q4 at 5.8 per cent, with risks evenly balanced. CPI (consumer price index) inflation is projected to further reduce to 5.0 per cent in Q1:2023-24," Das said. However, one has to see the RBI's prediction as to crude oil prices ($100 per barrel) as the oil producing countries have announced a cut in their production and the international prices going up. Economists and common man have a different take on the RBI's expectations on inflation. "Presently inflation does appear unlikely that it will move downwards for two sets of factors. The increase in oil price and rupee depreciation has potential to increase imported inflation," Sabnavis had told IANS earlier. "Second, there have been some shortfalls in kharif production which will mean an increase in prices. Also the late withdrawal of rain has affected vegetable crops and also adversely affected the harvest of rice and oilseeds in some regions." The reduction in sown area for rice and pulses during Kharif season is expected to feed inflation in the coming months. The overall sown acreage for the Kharif season has declined by 0.8 per cent at the end of September 30, 2022 as compared to last year, the Bank of Baroda said in a recent report. "The inflation rate will be 6.5-7 per cent in FY23 and 5.5-6 per cent in FY24," Sabnavis had remarked. The RBI Governor had said the communication with the central government is a privileged one and it will not made public by the Bank. Das also said there no legal stipulation on the frequency of the communication between RBI and the government. He had earlier said the inflation rate is expected to come down to four per cent in two years time. There are many uncertainties. The RBI has pegged the inflation rate at 6.7 per cent for FY23. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/apple-surges-to-add-178-billion-in-market-value-as-4th-quarter-earnings-help-drive-a-turnaround-in-the-stock-market/articleshow/95153518.cms">Apple surges to add $178 billion in market value as 4th-quarter earnings help drive a turnaround in the stock market</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-fed-will-hike-rates-too-far-and-tip-the-global-economy-into-a-recession-survey-of-economists-says/articleshow/95151308.cms">The Fed will hike rates too far and tip the global economy into a recession, survey of economists says</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/see-inside-an-almost-1-million-prefab-tiny-home-village-near-seattle-trying-to-solve-the-ongoing-homelessness-crisis/slidelist/95153993.cms">See inside an almost $1 million prefab tiny home village near Seattle trying to solve the ongoing homelessness crisis</a>

You Searched For "RBI excess reserves" and got 11 results

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RBI decides to withdraw incremental CRR in phased manner and release it by Oct 7

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Prem Watsa-backed Fairfax India commits up to $200 mn to IIFL Finance

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